Michael's Telluride Film Blog : MTFB Oscar Update: The Big Eight Penultimate Predix / Carol Doda Has a Trailer / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: THE BIG EIGHT

We're down to less than three weeks before they open the envelopes on March 10th. Here's is my latest update on the predicted winners in the "Big Eight" of the 23 Oscar categories. Today's listing also includes a film/performers previous MTFB rank to the right in parentheses. TFF films are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Poor Things (2)

3) The Holdovers (3)

4) Anatomy of a Fall (6)

5) American Fiction (7)

6) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

7) Barbie (5)

8) The Zone of Interest (8)

9) Maestro (9)

10) Past Lives (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Christopher Nolan/Oppenheimer (1)

2) Yorgos Lanthimos/Poor Things (2)

3) Martin Scorsese/Killers of the Flower Moon (3)

4) Jonathan Glazer/The Zone of Interest (4)

5) Justine Triet/Anatomy of a Fall (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon (1)

2) Emma Stone/Poor Things (2)

3) Sandra Huller/Anatomy of a Fall (3)

4) Annette Bening/Nyad (4)

5) Carey Mulligan/Maestro (5)

BEST ACTOR

1) Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer (2)

2) Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers (1)

3) Bradley Cooper/Maestro (3)

4) Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction (4)

5) Colman Domingo/Rustin (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Da'Vine Joy Randolph/The Holdovers (1)

2) Emily Blunt/Oppenheimer (2)

3) America Ferrera/Barbie (4)

4) Danielle Brooks/The Color Purple (3)

5) Jodie Foster/Nyad (3)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Robert Downey, Jr./Oppenheimer (1)

2) Ryan Gosling/Barbie (2)

3) Mark Ruffalo/Poor Things (3)

4) Robert DeNiro/Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

5) Sterling K. Brown/American Fiction (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) American Fiction (3)

2) Barbie (2)

3) Oppenheimer (1)

4) Poor Things (4)

5) The Zone of Interest (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anatomy of a Fall (1)

2) The Holdovers (2)

3) Past Lives (3)

4) Maestro (4)

5) May December (5)

Comment: Seem to be locked: Oppy for Best Picture, Nolan/Direction, Randolph/Supporting Actress, Downey for Supporting Actor and new to the "locked" category, Anatomy of a Fall for Original Screenplay. The Holdovers seems to have lost steam in the past couple of weeks in its bid for Original Screenplay.

Too close to call: Lead Acting races between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone as well as Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti. At the moment I am currently giving the edge to Gladstone and Murphy due to SAG Awards wins. Also to close to call is Adapted Screenplay. It has been a three horse race but American Fiction and Barbie seem to have created a little separation from Oppenheimer.

Currently I have TFF films winning in two of these eight categories: Da'Vine Joy Randolph/The Holdovers and Anatomy of a Fall for Original Screenplay.

Final predictions for these categories will be posted on Oscar morning, March 10th in a special MTFB post.

CAROL DODA HAS A TRAILER

Picturehouse has dropped a Red Band trailer for the TFF #50 Documentary Carol Doda: Topless at the Condor. That became available on Tuesday. Here it is from YouTube: