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MTFB's OSCAR PREDICTIONS-FIRST TAKE

It's time! As we end September here are my first predictions for Oscar nominations for the 97th Academy Awards. I'll start off with predicting the eight "Above the Line" categories first. I'll keep updating those from now until the day before the nomination announcement-Friday, Jan. 17th. I'll also add other categories along the way as we get closer and ultimately will have all the categories predicted before nomination day. As always TFF films are indicated in Bold. Films are listed in order of their likelihood of nomination.

BEST PICTURE

1) Anora

2) Emilia Perez

3) Conclave

4) The Brutalist

5) Dune II

6) Sing Sing

7) Gladiator II

8) Blitz

9) Saturday Night

10) September 5

Other Possibilities: A Real Pain, A Complete Unknown, The Room Next Door.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez

2) Sean Baker/Anora

3) Edward Berger/Conclave

4) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist

5) Denis Villenueve/Dune II

Others: Ridley Scott/Gladiator II, Steve McQueen/Blitz, Pedro Almodovar/The Room Next Door.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Mikey Madison/Anora

2) Angelina Jolie/Maria

3) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez

4) Nicole Kidman/Babygirl

5) Saoirse Ronan/The Outrun

Others: Amy Adams/Nightbitch, Tilda Swinton/The Room Next Door, Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here.

BEST ACTOR

1) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave

2) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing

3) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist

4) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown

5) Daniel Craig/Queer

Others: Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice, Paul Mescal/Gladiator II, John David Washington/The Piano Lesson.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez

2) Danielle Deadwyler/The Piano Lesson

3) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave

4) Saoirse Ronan/Blitz

5) Selena Gomez/Emilia Perez

Others: Felicity Jones/The Brutalist, Lady Gaga/Joker: Folie a Deux, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor/Nickel Boys.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain

2) Denzel Washington/Gladiator II

3) Clarence Maclin/Sing Sing

4) Stanley Tucci/Conclave

5) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist

Others: Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice, Samuel L. Jackson/The Piano Lesson, John Magaro/September 5.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave

2) Sing Sing

3) Dune II

4) Nickel Boys

5) The Piano Lesson

Others: Hit Man, Inside Out 2, I'm Still Here.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora

2) Saturday Night

3) The Brutalist

4) A Real Pain

5) Emilia Perez

Others: September 5, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Blitz

If I'm 100% accurate this is how nominations breakdown for TFF #51 films in these eight categories:

Emilia Perez (6 noms): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress (Saldana), Supporting Actress (Gomez), Original Screenplay.

Conclave (6 noms): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Supporting Actor (Tucci), Adapted Screenplay.

Anora (4 noms): BestPicture, Direction, Actress (Madison), Original Screenplay.

The Piano Lesson (2 noms and 2 maybes) Nominations: Supporting Actress (Deadwyler), Adapted Screenplay. Other possibilities: Actor (Washington), Supporting Actor (Jackson).

A Real Pain (2 noms and 1 maybe): Nominations: Supporting Actor (Culkin), Original Screenplay. Maybe: Best Picture.

Saturday Night (2 noms): Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay.

September 5 (1 nom and 2 maybes): Nomination: Best Picture. Maybes: Supporting Actor (Magaro), Original Screenplay.

Nickel Boys ( 1 nom and 1 maybe): nomination: Adapted Screenplay. Maybe: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor.

The Outrun (1 nom); Best Actress (Ronan).

Maria (1 nom): Best Actress (Jolie).

The Apprentice (2 maybes): Best Actor (Stan), Supporting Actor (Strong).

Overall, these 11 films account for 26 nominations and another 8 possible nominations in these eight categories.

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