TEN BETS #4 FOR TFF #52
With every week we get a little bit more backdoor info pointing to certain titles for TFF #52. You'll see a little bit of that for this week in the stories posted below. But let's lead off today's re-shuffle of the top ten bets on films for TFF. Here's a look at last week's Ten Bets:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Sentimental Value/Trier
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) Hamnet/Zhao
5) Blue Moon/Linklater
6) Sirat/Oliver Laxe
7) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers
9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Other possibilities: The Love That Remains/Palmason, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, The History of Sound, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
And this is where I think we are this week:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Sentimental Value/Trier
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) Hamnet/Zhao
5) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
6) Sirat/Oliver Laxe
7) Blue Moon/Linklater
8) After the Hunt/Guadagnino
9) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes Brothers
10) Rental Family/Hikari
Other possibilities: The History of Sound, The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains/Palmason, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
RENTAL FAMILY...TELLURIDE BOUND?
Oscar winner Brendan Fraser who leads Hikari's Rental Family
Earlier this week I wrote that Hikari's Rental Family had about a 40% shot at playing at telluride as a part of my assessment of what Searchlight films might be TFF possible. That, I suggested. made it the most likely Searchlight property to play TFF #52.
Tuesday World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy reported that the film may be TFF bound. In a story covering the test screenings of the film. The thrust of the story is that it has been screening to very positive reactions. As Ruimy is winding up the article he writes:
"What we might have here is the kind of low-key, but emotionally resonant indie that, if positioned well, could ride a wave of goodwill through the fall circuit and into awards season.
Of course, it it’s too early to tell, but all signs point to a real crowd-pleaser, and there are already murmurs that it’s already clinched a spot at the Telluride Film Festival, which is known to be a major Oscar launchpad."
We can't know how certain Ruimy is, but it seems he has some serious insight. Consequently Rental Family makes its way onto this week's Ten Bets list. And for fun, I'll tease that there is at least one other "Bet" among the 10 that I am 90% sure of and another among the week's "possibilities" that I'm also at 90% on. I really thought about moving the "possibility" into the Ten Bets for the week but had to make late breaking room for Rental Family.
Any guesses?
NEXT BEST PICTURE PREDICTS T-RIDE
Matt Neglia at Next Best Picture posted yesterday a substantial piece predicting where films would land this fall film fest season including TFF #52. I have included Matt's Telluride predictions and indicated where he and I overlap as follows:
* On the the latest Ten Bets
**Included as a "Possibility"
***Might have been mentioned by MTFB
Here's Matt's list:
Blue Moon – dir. Richard Linklater*
Bugonia-dir. Yorgos Lanthimos*
Chocobar-dir. Lucretia Martel
The Chronology Of Water – dir. Kristen Stewart***
Hamnet (World Premiere) – dir. Chloe Zhao*
The History Of Sound – dir. Oliver Hermanus**
A House Of Dynamite (World Premiere) – dir. Kathryn Bigelow***
It Was Just An Accident – dir. Jafar Panahi*
Jay Kelly-dir. Noah Baumbach**
Left-Handed Girl – dir. Shih-Ching Tsou***
The Love That Remains – dir. Hlynur Pálmason**
A Magnificent Life – dir. Sylvain Chomet***
Mother Mary (World Premiere) – director. David Lowery
The Perfect Neighbor – dir. Geeta Gandbhir
The President’s Cake – dir. Hasan Hadi***
Rental Family (World Premiere) – dir. Hikari*
The Secret Agent – dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho**
Seeds – dir. Brittany Shyne
Sentimental Value – dir. Joachim Trier*
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (World Premiere) – dir. Scott Cooper*
Train Dreams – dir. Clint Bentley***
Urchin – dir. Harris Dickinson***
The Young Mothers’ Home – dir. Luc Dardenne & Jean-Pierre Dardenne*
Films that Matt predicts for Venice or Toronto that I want to be at Telluride:
Anemone
The Ballad of a Small Player
Eleanor the Great
Frankenstein
Is This Thing On?
One Battle After Another
Nuremburg
Orwell: 2+2=5
Pressure
KNIVES AND DEFINITIONS
Word from Netflix yesterday that Rian Johnson's Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery will open the BFI/London Film Festival on October 8th. The interesting thing is that multiple sources reported that as being its International Premiere. That means it will have World Premiered somewhere else before Oct. 8th.
Some have speculated that means a Toronto World Premiere. But hold up. The traditional definition of "International Premiere" is that it is a first screening outside the film's nation of origin. Okay. It's just that Canada is not the "nation of origin" for Wake Up Dead Man. According to IMDb Pro the nation of origin is the U.S.A.
So, what gives? That set of circumstances seem to suggest that WUDM World Premieres at Telluride or Fantastic Fest. The original Knives Out did world premiere at Toronto and followed that with a screening as a part of Fantastic Fest. Glass Onion also World Premiered at Toronto and then followed that up with a number of high profile regional fests like Mill Valley, Middleburg and Hamptons.
So, again, what gives? I think there are three possibilities:
1) Wake Up Dead Man plays Telluride.
2) Wake Up Dead Man plays Fantastic Fest and skips Toronto.
3) Wake Up Dead Man World Premieres at Toronto.
The third option is maybe the most likely because the "International Premiere" designation has been inconsistently applied for some time.
I'll keep an eye on this to see how it finally checks out.
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