The FAC Update/Globe Effect/Oscar Matters/Film Comment Top 50/Foreign Affairs/Argo Words

FAC UPDATE

Last week was a big week for laying down reminders to Academy members as they start the actual voting.  The SAG awards and Golden Globes may not be particularly great predictors of what we'll see on Nomination Morning on Jan. 10th, but they do serve (as I think the New York and LA Critics awards the week before along with the AFI and NBR announcements last week) as mental prods for Academy members.  I also believe that these 6 "precursors", if you will, affect the prognostications of the Oscar experts as well.

The other guilds, in addition to SAG, have some sway as well...when the timing lines up.  This year both the Producers and Directors Guilds nomination announcements come too late to have any affect on the AMPAS nominating process.

As a result, between now and Nomination Morning, there really isn't another big "precursor" that's likely to tell us much of anything.

This Monday an update for Best Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor.  Next week: Picture, Supporting Actress and Actor and the Screenplays.


The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

 As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates. Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT].

BEST PICTURE

1) Lincoln (1)
2) Les Miserables (2)
3) Zero Dark Thirty (4)
4) Argo (3)
5) Silver Linings Playbook (5)
6) Life of Pi (6)
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7)
8) Amour (9)
9) Django Unchained (11)***
10) The Master (8)###
11) Moonrise Kingdom (10)
12) The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (New)***
13) Flight (12)
14) The Impossible (13)
15) Skyfall (New)

Dropping Out: The Hobbit and Anna Karenina

Comments:  Trendy picks include"Exotic Marigold Hotel", "Skyfall" and "Moonrise Kingdom".  "The Master" slide continues and you are beginning to see a little erosion in "Les Miz" ardor.  "Zero Dark Thirty" almost crept into the 2nd spot.

I continue to maintain that "Lincoln" is the film to beat and that if there is a "spoiler" it's likely to Be "Argo" rather than "ZDT", "Les Miz" or "Silver Linings".

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln (1)
2) Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty (4)***
3) Ben Affleck/Argo (2)
4) Tom Hooper/Les Miserables(3)
5) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (5)
6) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (6)
7) Michael Haneke/Amour (7)
8) Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master (8)
9) Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained (10)
10) Benh Zeitlin (9)

Comments:  Bigelow rides the ZDT wave to #2 in the compilation this week.  Maybe a slight diminishment for Hooper as a result of the Golden Globes announcement that left him and Russell off the list.  Also, Tarantino seems to have gotten a bit of a bump among the Oscar guessers as a result of this week's announcements as well.

Spielberg's still the likely winner eventually...

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook (2)
2) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (1)
3) Marion Cotillard/Rust and Bone(5) ***
4) Emanuelle Riva/Amour(3)
5) Quevenzhane Wallis/Beasts of the Southern Wild (4)
6) Naomi Watts/The Impossible (6)
7) Helen Mirren/Hitchcock (7)
8) Rachel Weisz/The Deep Blue Sea (10)***
9) Keira Knigtley/Anna Karenina (8)
10) Emayatzy Cornealdi/Middle of Nowhere (9)

Comments: The Rachel Weisz balloon continues to pick up helium.  Here's what I think might happen...Q. Wallis misses the mark and the 4, 5 spots are a bloodbath between Riva, Mirren and Watts.

I think the top three women are locked and that there's a real race between Lawrence and Chastain. Lawrence reclaimed the top spot this week (by the narrowest of margins), perhaps due to the on-going discussion online and elsewhere about the nature of torture and how its presented in ZDT.

If I were forced to pick today...I'd go with Chastain.

BEST ACTOR

1) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (1)
2) Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables (5)***
3) Denzel Washington/Flight (2)
4) John Hawkes/The Sessions (4)
5) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook (6)
6) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master (3)###
7) Jean Louis Tritingnant/Amour (8)
8) Anthony Hopkins/Hitchcock (7)
9) Richard Gere/Arbitrage (New-ish)***
10) Jamie Foxx/Django Unchained (New-ish)***

Dropping Out: Ben Affleck/Argo and Christoph Waltz/Django Unchained

Comments: The Jackman train has left the station and has a big head of steam but it all but appears that Day Lewis is solidly the man to beat.  Cooper got a bit of a boost from this week's announcements as did Gere.  Waltz disappears as result of the announcement fromThe Weinstein Company that he will be campaigned in the Supporting Actor category...and notice his Golden Globe nomination in there.

The Joaquin Phoenix disappearing act continues...despite being nominated by the HFPA this week for a Globe.

If you're betting...put the dough on Daniel Day Lewis to win.


GLOBE EFFECT

Sasha Stone and Scott Feinberg posted separate assessments of this week's Golden Globe nomination announcement:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2012/12/13/the-globes-sags-whos-up-whos-down-oscar-ballots-go-out-in-4-days/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-golden-globe-nominations-what-401964


OSCAR MATTERS

     A FEW MINUTES WITH FEINBERG

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/a-few-minutes-feinberg-all-401438

     OSCAR TALK (Tapley and Thompson)

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-99-the-top-10-films-of-2012

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-ten-best-lists

     LATEST GURUS OF GOLD

http://moviecitynews.com/2012/12/gurus-o-gold/





FILM COMMENT TOP 50

Film Comment had over 120 film critics chose the Best Films of 2012.  Here' s their compilation of the Top 50 with TFF #93 (and #38) films Bold.

THE COMPLETE FILM COMMENT 2012 BEST-OF FILMS LISTS

RELEASED 2012
1. Holy Motors
Director: Leos Carax

2. The Master
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson

3. Moonrise Kingdom
Director: Wes Anderson

4. This Is Not a Film
Directors: Jafar Panahi & Mojtaba Mirtahmasb

5. Amour
Director: Michael Haneke
 
6. The Turin Horse
Director: Béla Tarr
 
7. The Kid With a Bike
Directors: Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne
 
8. Once Upon a Time in Anatolia
Director: Nuri Bilge Ceylan

9. Lincoln
Director: Steven Spielberg

10. Zero Dark Thirty
Director: Kathryn Bigelow

Rankings #11 - #20
11.  Tabu, Director: Miguel Gomes
12.  The Deep Blue Sea, Director: Terence Davies
13.  Bernie, Director: Richard Linklater
14.  Beasts of the Southern Wild, Director: Benh Zeitlin
15.  Cosmopolis, Director: David Cronenberg
16.  Barbara, Director: Christian Petzold
17.  The Loneliest Planet, Director: Julia Loktev
18.  Silver Linings Playbook, Director: David O. Russell
19.  Oslo, August 31st, Director: Joachim Trier
20.  Neighboring Sounds, Director: Kleber Mendonça Filho

Rankings #21 - #30
21.  Django Unchained, Director: Quentin Tarantino
22.  Almayer’s Folly, Director: Chantal Akerman
23.  Magic Mike, Director: Steven Soderbergh
24.  Argo, Director: Ben Affleck
25.  Attenberg, Director: Athina Rachel Tsangari
26.  The Color Wheel, Director: Alex Ross Perry
27.  Rust and Bone, Director: Jacques Audiard
28.  Killer Joe, Director: William Friedkin
29.  Looper, Director: Rian Johnson
30.  Life of Pi, Director: Ang Lee

Rankings #31 - #40
31.  A Man Vanishes, Director: Shohei Imamura
32.  Skyfall, Director: Sam Mendes
33.  The Gatekeepers, Director: Dror Moreh
34.  Elena, Director: Andrei Zvyagintsev
35.  Haywire, Director: Steven Soderbergh
36.  Damsels in Distress, Director: Whit Stillman
37.  Abendland, Director: Nikolaus Geyrhalter
38.  Two Years at Sea, Director: Ben Rivers
39.  How to Survive a Plague, Director: David France
40.  Keep the Lights On, Director: Ira Sachs

Rankings #41 - #50
41.  A Burning Hot Summer, Director: Philippe Garrel
42.  Miss Bala, Director: Gerardo Naranjo
43.  Footnote, Director: Joseph Cedar
44.  Compliance, Director: Craig Zobel
45.  Alps, Director: Yorgos Lanthimos
46.  Kill List, Director: Ben Wheatley
47.  Farewell, My Queen, Director: Benoît Jacquot
48.  In Another Country, Director: Hong Sang-soo
49.  The Dark Knight Rises, Director: Christopher Nolan
50.  The Day He Arrives, Director: Hong Sang-soo  

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

The Hollywood Reporter talks to a number of directors that are thought to have films in the thick of the Foreign Language Film Oscar race including Nicolaj Arcel of TFF #39's "A Royal Affair":

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/foreign-language-oscar-four-directors-401901

And Sony Pictures Classics chief Michael Barker talks to HitFIx/InCOntention's Kris Tapley about "Amour's" Oscar chances:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/sony-classics-co-chief-michael-barker-remains-positive-on-oscar-chances-for-amour

ARGO WORDS

Deadline.com sat down and talked with "Argo" screenwriter and likely Oscar nominee Chris Terrio about the process that led him to be involved with the Ben Affleck film.

http://www.deadline.com/2012/12/oscars-qa-chris-terrio/


More on Thursday...

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