The FAC: 15 Oscar Categories and Where We Stand/Oscar Matters/TFF #39: This and That/Big Dates

Good Martin Luther King, Jr. Day to All...

THE FAC: 15 OSCAR CATEGORIES

Here’s the first look from The Film Awards Clearinghouse at the Oscar field since the nominations were announced and in light of The Golden Globes that were awarded last weekend.  This week, I’m taking a look at 15 of the 24 Oscar categories that will be awarded on Feb. 24^th.  Films/Individuals ranked in order of the likelihood of winning.

The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1)      Lincoln

2)      Silver Linings Playbook

3)      Life of Pi

4) Argo

5)      Zero Dark Thirty

6)      Les Miserables

7)      Beasts of the Southern Wild

8) Amour

9)      Django Unchained

Comment:  The BIG category is still generally regarded by our panel of Oscar experts as “Lincoln’s” to lose.  Its lead is substantial.  If there is a challenge, different experts have different theories about where that might come from. 

“Silver Linings” has all the right boxes checked off with acting nominations in each of the four categories plus nominations for directing, writing and editing…all of which generally are regarded as crucial to Best Picture Oscar success. 

“Life of Pi’s” claim to be the usurper comes from being the second most nominated film with 11, only 1 behind “Lincoln”.

“Argo’s” theory of upset is a little more of a labyrinth…involving the rectification of the perceived slight to Ben Affleck in not being nominated for Best Direction…again, some think that many in the directing branch thought his nomination was assured and looked elsewhere to spread the nominations around.  The theory goes that so many voters did that that Ben was left off the list entirely…Maybe. 

Actually, a buddy of mine who’s  a member of that branch of The Academy has suggested as much himself.  And, realistically, I think that had Affleck been nominated, “Argo” would be the easy upset pick…maybe even edging into a co-favorite position with “Lincoln”  My understanding is that trend of thinking has captured a number of the Oscar experts that are surveyed by The Gold Derby and Movie City News’ Gurus of Gold.

Nevertheless, it hasn’t turned up that way in my first review of the nine Oscarologists that I use for The Film Awards Clearinghouse as “Argo” sits at #4, though the spread between #2 and #4 is very small.

None of the other five films are remotely close.

BEST DIRECTION

1)      Steven Spielberg/Lincoln

2)      Ang Lee/Life of Pi

3)      David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook

4)      [tie] Michael Haneke/Amour and Benh Zeitlin/Beasts of the Southern Wild

Comment:  As goes “Lincoln” so goes the directing category.  Spielberg’s lead is substantial over Lee.

BEST ACTRESS

1)      Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings

2)      Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty

3) Emmanuelle Riva/Amour

4)      Quvenzhane Wallis/Beasts

5)      Naomi Watts/The Impossible

Comments:  A category that is regarded as being tight, wasn’t as close as I thought it would be when I ran the numbers.  It’s close, but Lawrence has an edge.

BEST ACTOR

1)      Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln

2)      Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables

3)      Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings

4)      Denzel Washington/Flight

5)      Joaquin Phoenix/The Master

Comment: DDL for the win…

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1)      Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables

2)      Sally Field/Lincoln

3)      Helen Hunt/The Sessions

4)      Amy Adams/The Master

5)      Jacki Weaver/Silver Linings

Comment:  Anne Hathaway…start planning a place for your trophy…she’s way out front.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1)      Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master

2)      Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln

3)      Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings

4)      Christoph Waltz/Django

5) Alan Arkin/Argo

Comment:  This is a great and very competitive category.  I was surprised to find Hoffman with a slight lead over Tommy Lee Jones using my metric, but it’s very, very close.  Waltz and DeNiro aren’t all that far behind either.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1)      Tony Kushner/Lincoln

2)      David O. Russell/Silver Linings

3) Chris Terrio/Argo

4)      David Magee/Life of Pi

5)      Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin/Beasts

Comment: Looks like Kushner’s to lose.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1)      Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained

2)      Mark Boal/Zero Dark Thirty

3) Michael Haneke/Amour

4)      Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola/Moonrise Kingdom

5)      John Gatins/Flight

Comment: This is a very close category among the top three contenders.  3 points separate them.  Fun to watch this over the next few weeks.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Amour

2) A Royal Affair

3) No

4)      War Witch

5)      Kon Tiki

Comment: “Amour” FTW.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1)      Brave

2)      Frankenweenie

3)      Wreck It Ralph

4)      ParaNorman

5)      Pirates: Band of Misfits

Comment: Another category that’s very tight among the top 3.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1)      Searching for Sugarman

2) The Gatekeepers

3)      How to Survive a Plague

4)      The Invisible War

5)      5 Broken Cameras

Comment: “Sugarman’s” search for an Oscar ends in victory on Feb. 24…it’s way, way out front.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1)      Life of Pi

2)      Skyfall

3)      Lincoln

4)      Anna Karenina

5)      Django Unchained

Comment: “Pi” looks solidly in the lead with Roger Deakins looking to finally win an Oscar (for “Skyfall”) apparently its only real threat.

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Argo

2)      Zero Dark Thirty

3)      Lincoln

4)      Life of Pi

5)      Silver Linings Playbook

Comment: A close race between William Goldenberg (Argo) and himself (with Dylan Tichenor for Zero Dark Thirty).  Lincoln also has a shot.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1)      Life of Pi

2)      Lincoln

3)      Anna Karenina

4) Argo

5)      Skyfall

Comment: Actually, this is a tie between “Pi” and “Lincoln”…with “Anna” and “Argo” close enough to steal it away.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1)      Skyfall (Skyfall)

2)      Les Miserables (Suddenly)

3)      Chasing Ice (Before My Time)

4)      Ted (Everybody Needs a Friend)

5)      Life of Pi (Pi’s Lullaby)

Comment: What has been perceived as a close contest between “Skyfall” and “Les Miz” is perceived now as a fairly comfortable lead for “Skyfall” after The Golden Globes.

Next week, I’ll update the Top 6 categories and take a look at the other feature categories left out in this post…Sound Mixing and Editing, Costume, Makeup and Hair, Production Design and Visual Effects.

OSCAR MATTERS

Taking a look at the Oscar predictions and analysis from some of the best in the business...


     +GOLD DERBY...TWO PODCASTS...

http://ec.libsyn.com/p/c/9/5/c95b1fbb7c423cea/Oscar_Predictions_USA_Today.mp3?d13a76d516d9dec20c3d276ce028ed5089ab1ce3dae902ea1d01cd8f30d1cc5dad2f&c_id=5321391

http://ec.libsyn.com/p/b/f/d/bfd18a54722c3576/LAT_Oscars_Predictions.mp3?d13a76d516d9dec20c3d276ce028ed5089ab1ce3dae902ea1d01cd8f30d1cf5b5f91&c_id=5327818

Gold Derby also reports that the race is narrowing with "Argo" sneaking up on "Lincoln".  I haven't seen that...yet but Gold Derby has a larger sample of Oscarologists.  Here's that post:

http://www.goldderby.com/news/3872/argo-oscars-academy-awards-lincoln-zero-dark-thirty-les-miserables-silver-linings-playbook-entertainment-news-718593624.html


     +FEINBERG FORECAST

The latest predictions for Oscar from The Hollywood Reporters' Scott Feinberg:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-updated-projections-5-413908

     +THE HOLLYWOOD REPORTERS

Scott Feinberg and Gregg Kilday look at the Oscar race post-Globes in this video:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/best-picture-oscar-frontrunner-hollywood-413423


TFF #39: THIS AND THAT (about films that played at this year's fest)

     +AFFLECK ON 'ARGO"

YouTube has this up with Ben Affleck talking about the process of making the film that has 7 Oscar nominations:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=6TAn6j9OKcI

     +A ROYAL AFFAIR

Now that it has secured an Oscar nomination for Best Foreign Language Film, Magnolia is re-releasing Denmark's Mads Mikkelsen starrer, "A Royal Affair" according to Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/a-royal-affair-re-released

     +"AT ANY PRICE"

It's won't surprise readers of this blog when I repeat that I thought this film was borderline awful when I caught it at this year's SHOW...This year's "Butter" or "Fur"...just not a good movie.  Although that sentiment wasn't universal.  Alex Billington at FirstShowing.net loved it, for example.  Nevertheless, in an effort to be a full service blog...here's the news: Sony Pictures Classics has released the official trailer for the film that stars Dennis Quaid and Zac Efron.  Here's the note from SPC:

http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/at-any-price/trailers/price-trailer-171017552.html

And here's the trailer:

BIG DATES

So, what's left on the calendar of import between now and the Oscar presentation?  Here are the dates that may still hold some clues for Oscar diviners (per Sasha Stone at Awards Daily):

Oscar final voting runs from Feb. 8-19.
Producers Guild announces: Jan. 26.
Screen Actor's Guild announces: Jan. 27
Director's Guild announces: Feb. 2
British Academy (BAFTA) announces: Feb. 10
Writers Guild announces Feb. 17
OSCARS Feb. 24


More on Thursday...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.