Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best Telluride predictor I know."
-Sasha Stone, Awards Daily
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
Last Sunday the 2012 Telluride Film Festival (#39) found itself as having been the North American host for 3 films that collectively earned 5 Oscars. "Paperman (Best Animated Short) and "Amour" (Best Foreign Language Film) each won one apiece while "Argo" won 3: Best Film Editing, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Film.
The SHOW continued this year to be a part of the awards season.
I have pointed out in the last few posts that Telluride has been the jumping off point for 4 out of the last 5 Best Picture winners. Others have noticed as well. John Horn posted a piece in the Los Angeles Times a couple of weeks ago making the same point and just this week The Hollywood Reporter noted that Telluride is or has been a crucial part of the awards season as one of the festivals that mattered most. Joey Magidson's post is here:
It makes for interesting reading and, as you might expect, I'll have more to say about this subject in the next couple of weeks.
AND OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO...
MTFB changes course now. Oscars are over and it's time to start thinking about TFF #40 and begin playing the game of trying to ferret out what films may come our way over Labor Day weekend. To that end I have included a link to a piece from Movie City News' Jeff Howell speculating on the possible films for the Cannes Film Festival in May.
Regular readers of this space and Telluride attendees know that Cannes and Telluride usually share many films. Take a look at the Howell post...we'll talk on Monday:
Good Post-Oscar Monday to All that have dialed up the blog today...
OSCAR MATTERS
Here's the rundown of last night's Oscar winners and a comment or two along the way.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: "Paperman". FAC gets this right and this was the first film at TFF #39 to win an Oscar for the evening.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: "Curfew". FAC correct. Telluride possible "Asad" does not win.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: "Inocente". FAC goes 3 for 3 in the "short" film categories; a feat that would normally guarantee a stunning overall success rate for the night...hmmm...didn't happen.
BEST SOUND MIXING: "Les Miserables". FAC correct.
BEST SOUND EDITING: The FAC had "Life of Pi" winning this barely over winners , that's right, winners...plural, an Oscar tie between "Skyfall" and "Zero Dark Thirty". Various experts reported that it was the 6th tie in Oscar history.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: "Life of Pi". FAC right.
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR: "Les Miserables". FAC right.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: "Anna Karenina" The FAC gets it right.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: "Lincoln". This was a mild surprise over "Anna Karenina". This was also 1 of 4 categories in which I had suggested that the metric might be wrong. My "hunch", however was the "Life of Pi" would win.
BEST SCORE: "Life of Pi". The FAC was back on track here.
BEST SONG: "Skyfall" from "Skyfall". The FAC is right and there was never much doubt, although Adele's performance seemed to be overshadowed by Jennifer Hudson's and Barbra Streisand's and the Les Mis cast...at least to me.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: "Brave". The FAC was leaning to "Wreck-It Ralph" so it misses. I had a hunch that it might be "Brave".
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: "Amour". FAC gets this right. "Amour's" only win of the night. The FAC had it edging into the Original Screenplay Oscar and I had a hunch that Emmanuelle Riva would win Best Actress. Nevertheless, this was the 2nd Oscar of the night for TFF #39 films.
BEST DOCUMENTARY: "Searching for Sugarman". FAC correct.
BEST FILM EDITING: "Argo". FAC correct. "Argo's" first win of the night and TFF #39 has it's third Oscar winner.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: "Life of Pi". FAC is correct here.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Chris Terrio for "Argo". FAC is right. "Argo's" 2nd award and number 4 for Telluride films.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Quentin Tarantino for "Django Unchained". And here's where the FAC starts to go off the rails. The FAC had an "Amour" win here, although all of the signs indicated a close race with "Django" right in the thick of it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz for "Django Unchained". FAC wrong here as well as it had DeNiro. But this was an intense category and maybe the most competitive of the night.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway for "Les Miserables". FAC right on this locked category.
BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day Lewis for "Lincoln". Another easy FAC pick as this was a foregone conclusion.
BEST ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence for "Silver Linings Playbook". FAC gets this one right and my hunch that Riva would win is off.
BEST DIRECTION: Ang Lee for "Life of Pi". The FAC metric had Speilberg winning in a close category. I intuited a win by Lee. "Hunches" go 2 of 4 for the night.
BEST PICTURE: "Argo". The FAC and most of the rest of the Oscar pundit world is right. TFF #39 with 5 Oscars from it's class this year.
TOTALS:
"Life of Pi"-4
"Argo"-3
"Les Miserables"-3
"Lincoln"-2
"Skyfall"-2
"Django Unchained"-2
One apiece for: "Anna Karenina", "Zero Dark Thirty", "Amour", "Searching for Sugarman", "Paperman", "Curfew", "Silver Linings Playbook", "Brave" and "Inocente".
And yes, that's 25...because of the Sound Editing tie.
The FAC goes 18 of 24 or 75%. My "hunchy" version actually does one batter to finish the night 19 of 24 or 79%.
AND not to beat a dead horse but 4 of the last 5 Best Picture winners started the Oscar season with a bow at Telluride. 2012: "Argo", 2011: "The Artist", 2010: "The King's Speech" and 2008: "Slumdog Millionaire". 2009 was "The Hurt Locker" winning.
And so that's Oscar and its connection to Telluride for another year. This space will go back to its more sedentary 2 posts per week on Monday and Thursday mornings until we get to June (unless conditions warrant). The blog also reverts to its original function (for the most part) which is to ferret out, conjecture and/or guess at what we might see in the San Juan Mountains over Labor Day weekend.
It's a five day affair this year starting on Thursday (Aug. 29) rather than Friday so there is even more to look forward to.
As always a huge thank you to Mitzi and Larry Mallard in Telluride at The river Club who make this whole weird obsession possible and a thanks as well to the very kind people who share there insight into their industry whether that be the folks in the movie biz or the Oscar bloggers whose work sets the bar.
And, of course, to all you crazy peeps who look in on this page from time to time...thank you!
More on Thursday...
Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.
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Good morning on a Sunday. Here's the last call post for Oscar from The Film Awards Clearinghouse before it all goes down tonight in L.A. Wish I was going to be there.
I'll be live tweeting (@Gort2) the ceremonies tonight (actually, I'll probably be live re-tweeting). So go find me on Twitter.
I've run the numbers one last time using the resources of 9 Oscarologists all season long. They are:
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
I have been lucky enough to meet some of these fine people over the past couple of years and I really appreciate their expertise. Thanks!
As always Telluride #39 films are Bold!
Now onto the Last Call...
I've divided the Categories into three sub-groups: Locked, Probable and Too Close to Call, but I Will Anyway. Here they are and here's what happens tonight (fair warning, I expect that The FAC accuracy will be right around 70-75%...that seems normal over the past 4 years and my "hunches"...probably none of them actually happen):
LOCKS
8 categories appear to have their winner solidly in place and any other winner seems virtually unthinkable. They are:
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina (although, I have to say...I wonder if enough Academy members even saw the film...)
Best Song: Skyfall from "Skyfall" Best Film Editing: Argo Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
Best Documentary: Searching for Sugarman
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables
Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln
PROBABLES
These 5 categories have likely winners, but there could still be some other film/person that edges by them;
Best Short Animation: "Paperman" is likely but "Adam and Dog" is nipping at its heels (I'm sorry but I couldn't resist the "Dog" pun/metaphor)
Best Sound Mixing: "Les Miserables" is the likely winner but "Skyfall" could win the trophy
Best Production Design: "Anna Karenina" is strong here but "Life of Pi" could challenge and here's my first "hunch" and diversion from The FAC metric...I think it will be "Life of Pi"
Best Cinematography: "Life of Pi" is likely to win but don't underestimate the chance that Roger Deakins finally wins after 10 nominations for "Skyfall"
Best Score: The metric says "Life of Pi" is way out front but I wouldn't be stunned by either a "Lincoln" or "Argo" win here.
TOO CLOSE TO CALL BUT I (AND THE FAC) WILL ANYWAY
10 categories have very close races as we head into this evening. Most are two way battles, but some have even more films/performers in serious contention.
Best Live Action Short: "Curfew" has a lead that has expanded in the last few days in the FAC metric but "Buzkashi Boys", "Death of a Shadow" challenge.
Best Documentary Short: "Inocente" with a small lead here but any of three other films could easily win the award: "King's Point", "Mondays at Racine" and "Open Heart".
Best Sound Editing: "Life of Pi" holds a small edge over "Skyfall" and "Zero Dark Thirty" has made a late surge among the experts.
Best Makeup/Hair: "Les Miserables"leads "The Hobbit" by a hair...forgive me.
Best Animated Feature: This is a no holds barred nail biter between "Wreck It Ralph" (which has the late edge) and "Brave" with "Frankenweenie still a real possibility. Hunch #2: "Brave" wins
Best Original Screenplay: "Amour" has a slight lead over both "Django Unchained" and "Zero Dark Thirty".
Best Adapted Screenplay: "Argo" as a lead over "Lincoln" and "Silver Linings Playbook" and that lead has expanded over the lat week.
Best Supporting Actor: A crazy category. Robert DeNiro has edged into the lead over Tommy Lee Jones. Waltz and Hoffman have lost some ground but could still get in, especially Waltz.
Best Actress: A very competitive three way race that The FAC process says Jennifer Lawrence has a small advantage and is closely followed by Emmanuelle Riva with Jessica Chastain still possible. Third "hunch" It's Riva tonight for "Amour".
Best Direction: This is led by Steven Spielberg with Ang Lee and David O. Russell in close pursuit. Hunch #4 is that it's Ang Lee.
AND BEST PICTURE IS...
All signs point to a win by "Argo" which, if it does happen, will mean that the Best Picture in 4 of the last 5 years went through Telluride (2012-"The Artist", 2011-"The King's Speech", 2009-"Slumdog Millionaire").
FAC breakdown has "Argo" with 3 Picture, Adapted Screenplay and Editing (and another possible) and "Amour" with 2 (Foreign Film and Original Screenplay) with another possible for Actress. "Paperman" is favored to win as well.
THE LAST CALL
More finals Oscar predictions from a bunch of people in the know:
Hello on a Saturday. You may not now this but the Academy Awards will be passed out tomorrow...
ONE DAY TO OSCAR: THE SHORTS
Among the toughest categories to predict, say the people who Oscar predict on a very serious level, are the "Shorts" categories. There are three: Live Action, Animated and Documentary. Irrespective of the difficulty, I've crunched the numbers using the publicly posted predictions of the following:
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
Telluride #39 films in Bold.
Here's what the combined wisdom says...
+LIVE ACTION SHORT
1) Death of a Shadow (4)
2) Curfew (3)
3) Buzkashi Boys (2) 4) Asad (1)
5) Henry (5)
Comment: With more data and more eyes actually on the nominees, this category is significantly different from its last posting. That being said, it's a very tight category and any of the top four could walk away as the winner.
+DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1) Inocente (1)
2) King's Point (3)
3) Mondays at Racine (4)
4) Open Heart (2)
5) Redemption (5)
Comment: There's some volatility in this category as well, not as much as "Live Action" but certainly a good amount. "Inocente" maintains its position as the favorite but the category is very tight top to bottom.
+ANIMATED SHORT
1) Paperman (1)
2) Adam and Dog (3)
3) The Longest Daycare (2)
4) Head Over Heels (4)
5) Fresh Guacamole (5) (Special note: Friuend of MTFB/FAC, Patrick Pringle, reminds me that "Frash Guacamole" played at MountainFilm)
Comment: "Paperman's" lead is fairly strong and its your likely Oscar winner but it's not a 100% lock either. "Adam and Dog" could take this Oscar.
OSCAR MATTERS: MORE FINAL PREDICTIONS
Any number of Oscar experts are making their final claims as we get down to a matter of hours before it's all over. I've included some of them here:
Two TFF #39 films that we'll hear called as nominees tomorrow nigh (and in the case of "Paperman" perhaps as a winner) are profiled recently. The New York Times talked to "No" director Pablo Larrain:
We're just 2 days away from closing Oscar season by opening the envelopes.
Today I take a look at the Sound races: Mixing and Editing and Visual Effects.
Our panel of Oscar experts includes the published predictions of the following:
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
Telluride #39 films in Bold
+SOUND MIXING
1) Les Miserables (2)
2) Skyfall (1)
3) Life of Pi (3) 4) Argo (5)
5) Lincoln (4)
Comment: "Les Mis" overtakes "Skyfall" for the favorite's spot and it's lead is substantial.
+SOUND EDITING
1) Life of Pi (1)
2) Skyfall (2) 3) Argo (4)
4) Zero Dark Thirty (3)
5) Django Unchained (5)
Comment: This category is too close to call but almost certainly down to the top two films. The strength of the "Argo" wave is even felt here in both sound categories as it moved up a spot in both Sound Mixing and Editing.
+VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Life of Pi (1)
2) The Hobbit (2)
3) The Avengers (3)
4) Prometheus (4)
5) Snow White and the Huntsman (5)
Comment: No changes here and "Pi's" lead is strong.
Tomorrow I'll take a look at the Short Subject categories where I have more data than last time and some changes have occurred.
OSCAR MATTERS: FINAL PREDICTIONS
A slew of Oscarologists and Industry Watchers are posting their final predictions. Over the next two days I'll post links to some selected Final Oscar Picks. The FAC will have it's FINAL up on Sunday.
For now, however, here are the final predictions from:
I continue my week long countdown to Oscar night with a look today at where the Oscar races are for categories that have everything to do with how a film looks: Production Design, Costumes and Makeup and Hair.
But first up, here's an update of the Best Picture race...has "Argo" lost any steam over the past few days?
Our panel of Oscar experts includes the published predictions of the following:
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
+BEST PICTURE
1) Argo (1)
2) Lincoln (2)
3) Silver Linings Playbook (3)
4) Life of Pi (4)
5) Amour (5)
6) Zero Dark Thirty (6)
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (8)
8) Les Miserables (7)
9) Django Unchained (9)
Comment: Not a lot of change since Monday. "Argo" remains the prohibitive favorite. "Lincoln" and "Silver Linings Playbook" are essentially tied for the #2 spot and thus regarded equally as the possibilities for an "upset". "beasts" and "Les Mis" trade spots near the bottom. One last check for this category coming with the Big Final Roundup on Sunday.
+BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Anna Karenina (1)
2) Life of Pi (3)
3) Lincoln (2)
4) Les Miserables (4)
5) The Hobbit (5)
Comment: "Anna Karenina's" lead is substantial but not sufficient to be called a "lock". It would appear that there is a surge toward "Life of Pi" and it will be interesting to see, if in Sunday's post, "Pi" has closed the lead down any further. "Lincoln" and "Les Miserables" aren't completely out of the conversation but, realistically, this looks like a showdown between "Anna" and "Pi".
+BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1) Anna Karenina (1)
2) Lincoln (2)
3) Les Miserables (3)
4) Mirror Mirror (4)
5) Snow White and the Huntsman (5)
Comment: This is a very stable category with "Anna Karenina" a prohibitive favorite.
+BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR
1) The Hobbit (1)
2) Les Miserables (2)
3) Hitchcock (3)
Comment: A race too close to call between "Hobbit" and "Les Mis".
FOCUS ON "NO"
Pablo Larrain's film "no" is Oscar nominated for Best Foreign Language Film and was on the program at TFF #39. It's receiving a good amount of notice in the press right now as a result of its nomination and the fact that its limited U.S. release this week.
Here are a couple of posts that appeared this week for "no":
I'm continuing my daily posting as a run up to Sunday's Oscar broadcast. Today I have four categories that all appear to be over save for the Envelope opening and announcement on Sunday night. As always using data from the published predictions of the following:
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold.
+CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) Life of Pi (1)
2) Skyfall (2)
3) Anna Karenina (4)
4) Lincoln (3)
5) Django Unchained (5)
Comment: Looks like it's "Pi's" although Roger Deakins is still a formidable presence in this category for "Skyfall" since he's never won Oscar and he just won the ACS award...Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if this category didn't tighten up among the prognosticators by Sunday morning and their final predictions.
+FILM EDITING
1) Argo (1)
2) Zero Dark Thirty (2)
3) Lincoln (3)
4) Life of Pi (4)
5) Silver Linings Playbook (5)
Comment: "Argo" is the solid favorite here especially after the A.C.E. win Saturday night. "Silver Linings" won the Eddie for Comedy editing, but that's not expected to have provided much of a boost. This category was once thought to be fairly competitive between "Argo" and "ZDT"...now...not so much.
+ORIGINAL SCORE
1) Life of Pi (1)
2) Lincoln (2) 3) Argo (4)
4) Anna Karenina (3)
5) Skyfall (5)
Comment: "Pi" again looks unbeatable here but it's always tough to bet against John Williams and "Argo" has been making some headway.
+ORIGINAL SONG
1) Skyfall from Skyfall (1)
2) Pi's Lullaby from Life of Pi (5)
3) Suddenly from Les Miserables (3)
4) Everybody Needs a Friend from Ted (4)
5) Before My Time from Chasing Ice (5)
Comment: "Skyfall" has a dominant lead in this category. "Pi's Lullaby" has zoomed into the distant second place.
OSCAR MATTERS
It' begun...the real Oscar brains are starting to make their final predictions beginning with one of the smartest guys I know in this game, The Hollywood Reporters Scott Feinberg. Here's what he says is his final Feinberg Forecast before the 85th Academy Awards (Todd McCarthy also throws in his 2 cents):
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to a special added post of The Film Awards Clearinghouse. All this week, I'll be posting daily as we move closer to Sunday night and Oscar time.
First note: Oscar balloting closes today at 5:00PM PST.
Yesterday I posted the latest numbers on the Big 8 categories (Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Actor and Adapted and Original Screenplay). For the rest of the week, I'll be posting updates on all of the remaining categories with an update for Best Picture on Thursday and every category on Sunday morning. It should be a lot of fun.
Today's FAC checks in on Best Animated Feature, Foreign Language Film and Documentary. As always, these are the sources (using their publicly posted Oscar predictions) I use to arrive at the FAC charts:
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold.
+BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1) Brave (2)
2) Wreck It Ralph (1)
3) Frankenweenie (3)
4) ParaNorman (4)
5) Pirates: Band of Misfits (5)
Comment: "Brave" has taken an incredibly slight lead in one of this year's most competitive categories.
+BEST DOCUMENTARY
1) Searching for Sugarman (1)
2) The Gatekeepers (2)
3) How to Survive a Plague (3)
4) The Invisible War (4)
5) 5 Broken Cameras (5)
Comment: Put this category into the "locked" division.
+BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1) Amour (1)
2) A Royal Affair (2)
3) Kon Tiki (5)
4) No (3)
5) War Witch (4)
Comment: Another category wherein the winner is locked.
BEST OSCAR PREDICTOR? IT'S TELLURIDE (despite itself).
John Horn of the Los Angeles Times posted a story yesterday with the claim that the best predictor of Oscar success may be the Telluride Film Festival...which bums me out, because I've been working on a similar article for publication here for after the Oscars (which I'll almost certainly do anyway). Nevertheless, here's the link to Horn's post:
Fair warning...I had been planning a big post for after The Oscars on somewhat the same topic. After reading the Horn story...I'll still be doing that.
EMMANUELLE RIVA ON THE RISE
As we have gotten closer to Oscar, "Amour's" Emmanuelle Riva has emerged as a serious contender for the Best Actress award. Jennifer Lawrence of "Silver Lining's Playbook" has been the perceived front runner for some time, but Riva's rise has been impressive and a number of very smart people think she's going to become the oldest Oscar acting winner ever. This week, she talked with Anne Thompson and Scott Feinberg about the film, her role and other topics:
Only six days left until Oscar season is over and if you're an observer who doesn't have a horse in the race, it has been a fascinating ride these past 5 1/2 months since the Telluride Film Festival's 39th edition came to an end.
Now we're to the end game. Consequently, MTFB/FAC will post every day this week and include a final look at Oscar predictions next Sunday morning before the Oscar broadcast. It's going to be a bumpy week.
Here's a start, a look at the Big 8 categories and where they stand after the number crunching using data from the published predictions of the following:
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold.
+BEST PICTURE
1) Argo (1)
2) Lincoln (2)
3) Silver Linings Playbook (3)
4) Life of Pi (4) 5) Amour (6)
6) Zero Dark Thirty (7)
7) Les Miserables (5)
8) Beasts of the Southern Wild (8)
9) Django Unchained (9)
Comment: The "Argo" trend is all but complete sweeping the predictors. Looks like its Ben's to lose at this point. And here's kind of an amazing note..."Amour" has steadily moved up the chart in the estimation of the prognosticators I check on to sit at #5. Almost in a position for a case to be made that IT could be a spoiler although better cases can be made for "Lincoln", "Silver Linings" and "Life of Pi".
+BEST DIRECTION
1) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln(1)
2) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (2)
3) David O. Russell/Silver Linings (3) 4) Michael Haneke/Amour (4)
5) Behn Zeitlin/Beasts (5)
Comment: This thing has become a real horse race. Spielberg maintains a small edge over Lee, but it's very small. Also, Russell is in striking distance.
Comment: Lawrence has been the front runner for months. She was seriously challenged by Jessica Chastain but that dynamic has faded. Rather, Emanuelle Riva's stock has continued to rise over the last month and now she is a very close second and the trendy pick to win (she's the first choice of 3 of my Oscar specialists). This category has become very tight.
+BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (1)
2) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings Playbook (3)
3) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (2)
4) Christoph Waltz/Django Unchained (4) 5) Alan Arkin/Argo (5)
Comment: This has also turned into a real dog fight. Jones seemed to be unbeatable 6 weeks ago, but the race has evolved to the point that any of the top 4 men could win the honor and, frankly, I wouldn't be all that shocked if Arkin sneaked in to win on the strength of the "Argo" wave.
Comment: If Hathaway doesn't win, it will also be one of the biggest Oscar "shockers' in a good long time.
+BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Chris Terrio/Argo (3)
2) Tony Kushner/Lincoln (1)
3) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (2)
4) David Magee/Life of Pi (4)
5) Lucy Alibar and Behn Zeitlin/Beasts (5)
Comment: The "Argo" momentum has carried Terrio to the top of the chart with a fractional lead over Kushner (who has lead this category for months). Keep in mind, I crunched the numbers for this morning's chart prior to Terrio winning the Writer's Guild award last night (see below). It's a two horse race with Terrio the smallest of favorites now.
+BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Michael Haneke/Amour (3)
2) Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained (1)
3) Mark Boal/Zero Dark Thirty (2)
4) Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola/Moonrise Kingdom (4)
5) John Gatins/Flight (5)
Comment: Mark Boal (ZDT) won last night at the WGA but Haneke wasn't eligible for that nomination (neither was Tarantino). So, this is a three horse race and pretty close as well.
So where does this put us with 6 days to Oscar? "Argo" has won major awards from the following: PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG, ACE the Critic's Choice and Golden Globes. It's going to win Best Picture on Sunday night and likely Best Editing. It has a decent shot at Best Adapted Screenplay and I think still could get Best Original Score. All told 3 or 4 Oscars. The biggest total of wins on Sunday night may be "Life of Pi" which could end up winning 5-6 Oscars. There's a very real chance that "Lincoln" may go home without a single Oscar despite having the most nominations (12).
Ultimately, this is primarily a blog that focuses on Telluride films and as of this post, TFF #39 looks formidable. Despite a year with a relatively modest nomination total, The SHOW could end up with as many as 9 Oscars at the end of the night awarded to films that played this year (Think: "Argo" 4-Picture, Adapted Script, Score and Editing, "Amour" 3-Foreign Language, Original Screenplay and Actress and wins for "Paperman" and "Asad" in the shorts categories).
FINAL PRECURSORS: WRITERS AND EDITORS
The Writer's Guild of America awarded their top prizes for the year last night and as mentioned above TFF #39 Sneak Preview "Argo" was awarded for Best Adapted Screenplay. "Zero Dark Thirty" won for Original Screenplay. Hers' the report filed by USA Today:
Countdown to Oscar: With a week to go until the Oscars are presented be warned: Starting with tomorrow's post Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse will post each day until the Oscar's are over (including an Oscar post-mortem on Monday, Feb. 25)...
I'm in Liberal, Kansas awaiting the birth of grandchild #5...as of press time...no idea on gender and the name is still in question...
With Oscar now just 10 days away from an appearance, here is a smattering of posts and articles around 3 of Telluride's films from this year's festival that are in Oscar contention and some news from another film that was a real crowd pleaser at the SHOW:
Good Monday to All... THE FAC: THE CLOSE RACES I'm taking a look on this Monday at the Oscar categories that look to be closely contested at least at this point with two weeks to go and the Oscar voting actually ongoing. In addition to the weekly look at Best Picture I have included a review of these categories: Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Animated Feature, Film Editing, Original Score and Production Design. I also take a quick look at the "Shorts" categories... All films are listed in their current position with their last reported position on The FAC in parenthesis. Also, for this post, I limited the Oscar predictors that I referenced. One hasn't updated predictions since Jan.3 and another is only listing the nominees alphabetically. Consequently, neither of them is particularly useful in gauging where the races are at this point.
The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) Argo (1)
2) Lincoln (2)
3) Silver Linings Playbook (3)
4) Life of Pi (4)
5) Les Miserables (5)
6) Amour (7)
7) Zero Dark Thirty (6)
8) Beasts of the Southern Wild (8)
9) Django Unchained (9)
Comment: The "Argo" wave got wider in the last week and may well increase by next week as I crunched these numbers prior to the weekend's announcement of "Argo" wins for Adapted Screenplay at the USC Scripter awards and BAFTA wins for Best Picture, Director and Editing. Look at the BAFTA story below for a link to complete details.
The reality now is that "Argo" has become the favorite once again...and by an increasingly comfortable margin. I think the questions now are...who wins the Oscar for Direction since it can't be Affleck. Spielberg? Russell? Lee?
Other questions...Does "Argo" win any of the categories it IS nominated for? Editing seems pretty likely now (despite the fact that I have included it as a "close" category for this post).
Among its other nominations Adapted Screenplay looks to be a possibility and that's interesting because when I put this piece together, it looked like a lock as recently as Friday for Tony Kushner and Lincoln. Now, with the Scripter award in Chris Terrio's pocket AND David O. Russell's win for this category at Sunday's BAFTAs..it may be much more wide open. It'll be entertaining to see where the WGA comes down on this on Sunday.
Maybe "Argo" has a shot at Original Score...but Sound editing and Mixing as well as Alan Arkin's Best Supporting Actor chances seem to be too long to overcome even with the freight train that "Argo" is becoming.
So you could have a night where the Best Picture winner walks away with that single Oscar...really. It could happen. And that is very rare indeed. Or maybe 2. Editing is the most likely second Oscar with Adapted Screenplay and then Score in that order. The Sound Mixing and Editing would be next with Arkin the least likely.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings (1)
2) Emanuelle Riva/Amour (2)
3) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (3)
4) Quvenzhane Wallis/Beasts (4)
5) Naomi Watts/The Impossible (5)
Comment: No real movement in this category this week but again, this came prior to Riva's BAFTA win. Frankly, I feel that the 85 year old actress is gaining some traction and expect this race to look closer next week.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (1)
2) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (2)
3) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings (4)
4) Christoph Waltz/Django (3)
5) Alan Arkin/Argo (5)
Comment: This is till a fairy competitive category and it will be fascinating to see if Waltz gets a bump after his BAFTA win last night. DeNiro had a little boost this week. It's a real race between the top four.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1) Wreck It Ralph (3)
2) Brave (1)
3) Frankenweenie (2)
4) ParaNorman (4)
5) Pirates: Band of Misfits
Comment: Big move by "Ralph" to the top after winning the Annie for Best Feature. But it's still very, very close among the top three and "Brave" may benefit from its BAFTA win.
BEST FILM EDITING
1) Argo (1)
2) Zero Dark Thirty (2)
3) Life of Pi (4)
4) Lincoln (3)
5) Silver Linings Playbook (5)
Comment: This race has been tight, but became less so over the past few weeks as "Argo" now has opened a substantial lead among our Oscar prognosticators. Increasingly this looks like a win for William Goldenberg working solo as opposed to the Oscar he'd have to share with Dylan Tichenor should "Zero Dark Thirty" win this category.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1) Life of Pi (1)
2) Lincoln (2)
3) Argo (4)
4) Anna Karenina (3)
5) Skyfall (5)
Comment: "Pi's" lead is smallish and "Lincoln" and "Argo" appear to be real challengers with "Argo's" Alexander Desplat moving up this past couple of weeks.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Anna Karenina (1)
2) Lincoln (2)
3) Life of Pi (4)
4) Les Miserables (3)
5) The Hobbit (5)
Comment: A close category has stopped being that over the past month as "Anna Karenina" has moved into a dominating position.
SHORTS...
First, a disclaimer...of the nine people/websites that I check to form the basis of The FAC only 3 are currently predicting for these "Shorts" categories...so...grain of salt...
+ANIMATED SHORT
1) Paperman
2) Maggie Simpson: The Longest Daycare
3) Adam and Dog
4) Head Over Heels
5) Fresh Guacamole
Comment: "Paperman" was a late addition to the Animated Shorts presentation from Serge Bromberg at this year's SHOW and is delightful.
+LIVE ACTION SHORT
1) Asad
2) Buzkashi Boys
3) Curfew
4) Death of a Shadow
5) Henry
Comment: "Asad" was also a TFF #39 film.
+DOCUMENTARY
1) Inocente
2) Open Heart
3) King's Point
4) Mondays at Racine
5) Redemption
THE BRITS HAVE SPOKEN
The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their winners yesterday. "Argo" won Best Picture, Best Director and Editing. "Les Miserables" led all films with 4 wins. Emanuelle Riva and Christoph Waltz both probably got boosts in their Oscar campaigns with their wins. Here's the complete list of BAFTA winners from Entertainment Weekly:
Best Film Argo Best Director Ben Affleck,Argo Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis,Lincoln Best Actress Emmanuelle Riva,Amour Best
Supporting Actor Christoph Waltz,Django Unchained Best
Supporting Actress Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables Best Original
Screenplay Django Unchained Best Adapted
Screenplay Silver Linings Playbook Best British
FilmSkyfall Best Film Not
in the English LanguageAmour Best Animated
FilmBrave Best
DocumentarySearching for Sugar Man Best Editing William
Goldenberg,Argo Best Costume
Design Jacqueline Durran,Anna Karenina Best
Cinematography Claudio Miranda,Life of Pi Best Original
Music Thomas Newman,Skyfall Best Make-Up
& Hair Lisa Wescott,Les Misérables Best Visual
Effects Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan
De Boer, Donald R. Elliott, Life of Pi Best
Production Design Eve Stewart, Anna Lynch-Robinson, Les Misérables Best Sound Simon Hayes,
Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Jonathan Allen, Lee Walpole, John Warhurst, Les Misérables Best British
Debut Bart Layton and Dimitri Doganis,The Imposter Orange Rising
Star Award Juno Temple Best Animated
ShortThe Making of Longbird Best
Live-Action ShortSwimmer
And so, why does this matter? The Brits have a small, but significant number of members in the Academy and the conventional wisdom is that they really will vote. SO the BAFTAs can, perhaps, give us an inkling of which way the wind is blowing for a significant voting bloc.
"No" the Chilean film from Pablo Larrain that is Oscar nominated is kicking up some dust back in its home country as reported by The New York Times here:
