THE FAC #2, PART TWO
As promised last Thursday, here's the other half of the updated Film Awards Clearinghouse with the latest numbers for Best Supporting Actor and Actress as well as Adapted and Original Screenplay.
I use the publicly posted predictions of these Oscar experts:
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kris Tapley/HitFix-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
The films position on the first FAC is in parenthesis. Telluride #40 films are Bold.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Jared Leto/Dallas Buyers Club (2)
2) Michael Fassbender/12 Years (1)
3) Tom Hanks/Saving Mr. Banks (3)
4) Daniel Bruhl/Rush (4)
5) Barkhard Abdi/Capt. Phillips (-)
6) James Gandolfini/Enough Said (-)
7) Bradley Cooper/American Hustle (7)
8) Jeremy Renner/American Hustle (-)
9) Matthew McConnaughey/Mud (-)
10) John Goodman/Inside Llewyn Davis (-)
Dropping out: Mark Ruffalo, Daniel Oyelowo
Hot Stuff: Abdi, Gandolfini, Cooper, Renner
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Oprah Winfrey/LD's The Butler (1)
2) Lupita Nyong'o/12 Years (2)
3) June Squibb/Nebraska (3)
4) Julia Roberts/August: Osage County (7)
5) Jennifer Lawrence/American Hustle (6)
6) Octavia Spencer/Fruitvale (5)
7) Sally Hawkins/Blue Jasmine (9)
8) Margo Martindale/August: Osage County (4)
9) Carey Mulligan/Inside Llewyn Davis (-)
10) Amy Adams/Her (-)
Dropping Out: Cameron Diaz
Hot Stuff: Roberts (at the apparent expense of Margo Martindale), Hawkins, Mulligan and Adams.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) 12 Years a Slave (1)
2) Captain Phillips (3)
3) Before Midnight (2)
4) August: Osage County (-)
5) Philomena (6)
6) The Wolf of Wall Street (4)
7) Labor Day (-)
8) Blue is the Warmest Color (-)
9) Short Term 12 (-)
10) The Book Thief (-)
Dropping: Monuments Men and Foxcatcher as they have been moved to 2014 release dates.
Hot: August, Labor Day, Blue, Short Term and Book Thief.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Inside Llewyn Davis (2)
2) Nebraska (6)
3) Blue Jasmine (3)
4) American Hustle (1)
5) Her (5)
6) Gravity (-)
7) Saving Mr. Banks (4)
8) Lee Daniel's The Butler (8)
9) Fruitvale Station (7)
10) Dallas Buyers Club (-)
No drop outs
Hot Stuff: Gravity, Nebraska, Dallas Buyers
ANALYSIS
Here's the breakdown of the "Great Eight" categories vis-a-vis Telluride #40. If these predictions were true on nomination morning...
12 Years a Slave: Nominated in six (of these 8 categories...I really think it ends up with 11 overall): Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay.
Nebraska: 5 nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.
Gravity: 3 Nominations: Picture, Director, Actress and 1 possible for Original Screenplay.
Inside Llewyn Davis: 2 nominations: Picture, Original Screenplay. 3 possibles: Directors, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress.
All is Lost: 2 nominations: Picture, Actor, 1 possibility: Director.
Blue is the Warmest Color: 2 possibilities: Actress, Adapted Screenplay.
Labor Day: 2 possibilities: Actress, Adapted Screenplay.
The Past: 2 possibilities: Actress, Original Screenplay.
In the Big Eight categories Telluride #40 predicted currently to have 18 nominations and another 10 possibilities.
In terms of total nominations, I'm still expecting a record number for Telluride films this year. In the 30's is likely. 40+ is a stretch, but possible.
Other non-Telluride films expected to be big players;
Captain Phillips: 5 nominations.
American Hustle: 4 nominations and another 4 possibilities.
Saving Mr. Banks: 3 nominations and 2 possibles.
August: Osage County: 3 nominations and 2 possibles.
Lee Daniel's The Butler: 2 nominations and 3 possibles.
Dallas Buyers Club: 2 nominations and 2 possibles.
Blue Jasmine: 2 nominations and 2 possibles.
Philomena: 2 nominations.
The Wolf of Wall Street: 1 nomination and 3 possibles.
Her: 1 nomination and 3 possibles.
Before Midnight: 1 nomination and 1 possible.
Fruitvale Station: 4 possibles.
I suspect that "Wolf" lost some predictive steam because of its "limbo" status concerning its release date. Now that that has been resolved, I expect that it will begin to pick up some heat from Oscar pickers. I also think "Her" picked up some heat from its New York Film Fest debut and that it may still be gaining some momentum. Same is true for the London premiere of "Mr. Banks". Reports were very positive, so despite my "vibe" that it wouldn't make much of a dent, people in the know and that have seen it would beg to differ with me.
Right now, I also have a "vibe" that "Dallas Buyers Club" may be a more serious player than merely Actor and Supporting Actor nominations. I get the sense that it could rise in the Best Pic, Director and Screenplay races as well.
Bottom line for me is that "American Hustle" may still be the biggest threat to "12 Years" Oscar supremacy. Maybe "Wolf" as well, but I think the real race might come from the David O. Russell film. Even with that being said, my gut tells me that it'll be a "12 Years" night on Mar. 2. Multiple wins...Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actress, plus under the line wins for Costume, Production Design and maybe Score. Ejiofor won't win the Actor's trophy, though. I think it's going Redford's way.
TFF#40 ECHOS CONTINUE
12 YEARS A SLAVE NEWS
I continue to make it clear that this is the best film of the year. It continued its roll out this weekend by adding a few more cities. Coming this weekend it adds a slew more and if you didn't catch it in Telluride (or Toronto) I'd encourage you to go see it. Frankly, I'm going to find a way to see it again in a theater though I think the chances of it being programmed at my local 8 screener in the middle of the Oklahoma Panhandle is unlikely until it gets the 10-11 Oscar nominations that I think are coming its way. Probably going to have to catch it in Oklahoma City, Amarillo, Albuquerque or Santa Fe sometime in the next six weeks or so.
Nevertheless, for those who haven't seen the film or wish to re-visit it, The Playlist posted links to two clips and a Steve McQueen featurette here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-2-clips-directors-vision-featurette-for-steve-mcqueens-12-years-a-slave-20131024
Also, Canada.com's Bob Thompson talks to "12 Years" star Chiwetel Ejiofor:
http://o.canada.com/entertainment/scene-and-heard-12-years-a-slaves-chiwetel-ejiofor-would-rather-talk-about-the-film-than-the-oscars/
THE INVISIBLE WOMAN, VISIBLE IN A DIFFERENT CATEGORY
News reported by The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg that Felicity Jones who is the titular "Invisible Woman" in the Ralph Fiennes film will be campaigned by Sony Pictures Classics as a Best Actress candidate rather than Supporting which most observers thought would be the direction that SPC would take. Here's the post from Feinberg:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-invisible-womans-felicity-jones-651103
BLUE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAVES
Julian Scanton of Esquire talked recently to "Blue is the Warmest Color" co-star Lea Seydoux as the film continues to spark controversy and conflicting commentary and reportage from the stars and the director. Here's the Esquire interview with Seydoux:
http://www.esquire.com/blogs/culture/lea-seydoux-interview
FARHADI ON THE PAST AND THE FUTURE
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Indie Wire's Laya Maheshwair talks to the Iranian genius about his current film and some thoughts about future projects:
http://www.indiewire.com/article/asghar-farhadi-on-oscar-odds-for-the-past-iranian-filmmaking-directing-an-opera-and-making-an-english-language-movie
ALL IS LOST'S CHANDOR ALSO PAST AND FUTURE
"All is Lost" director J.C. Chandor talked to Alex Billington at FirstShowing.net about the survival film starring Oscar favorite Robert Redford and also about some of his future plans:
http://www.firstshowing.net/2013/video-interview-talking-with-all-is-lost-writerdirector-j-c-chandor/
NEBRASKA IN NEW YORK
If there was no "12 Years a Slave" Alexnader Payne's "Nebraska" would probably be in the tank for. It or "Inside Llewyn Davis". Nevertheless, Edward Davis writing for The Playilist explores the tone of "Nebraska" and includes the link to the half hour conversation about the film from the New York Film Festival with Alexander Payne, Bruce Dern and Will Forte:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/nyff-alexander-payne-bruce-dern-will-forte-talk-the-particular-tone-of-nebraska-20131009
OSCAR MATTERS
In addition to the above addition to The Film Awards Clerainghouse, here are some other Oscar-y tidbits. For example, tale a look at the latest from Gold Derby (which varies a bit from The FAC):
http://www.goldderby.com/news/4952/gravity-12-years-a-slave-oprah-entertainment-news-721480395.html
And here is the link to the latest Oscar Podcast from Kris Tapley of HitFix/InContention and Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood:
http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-nyff-gotham-nominations-awards-contenders-head-for-2014
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-where-are-we-now
More to come on Thursday...
The films position on the first FAC is in parenthesis. Telluride #40 films are Bold.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Jared Leto/Dallas Buyers Club (2)
2) Michael Fassbender/12 Years (1)
3) Tom Hanks/Saving Mr. Banks (3)
4) Daniel Bruhl/Rush (4)
5) Barkhard Abdi/Capt. Phillips (-)
6) James Gandolfini/Enough Said (-)
7) Bradley Cooper/American Hustle (7)
8) Jeremy Renner/American Hustle (-)
9) Matthew McConnaughey/Mud (-)
10) John Goodman/Inside Llewyn Davis (-)
Dropping out: Mark Ruffalo, Daniel Oyelowo
Hot Stuff: Abdi, Gandolfini, Cooper, Renner
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Oprah Winfrey/LD's The Butler (1)
2) Lupita Nyong'o/12 Years (2)
3) June Squibb/Nebraska (3)
4) Julia Roberts/August: Osage County (7)
5) Jennifer Lawrence/American Hustle (6)
6) Octavia Spencer/Fruitvale (5)
7) Sally Hawkins/Blue Jasmine (9)
8) Margo Martindale/August: Osage County (4)
9) Carey Mulligan/Inside Llewyn Davis (-)
10) Amy Adams/Her (-)
Dropping Out: Cameron Diaz
Hot Stuff: Roberts (at the apparent expense of Margo Martindale), Hawkins, Mulligan and Adams.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) 12 Years a Slave (1)
2) Captain Phillips (3)
3) Before Midnight (2)
4) August: Osage County (-)
5) Philomena (6)
6) The Wolf of Wall Street (4)
7) Labor Day (-)
8) Blue is the Warmest Color (-)
9) Short Term 12 (-)
10) The Book Thief (-)
Dropping: Monuments Men and Foxcatcher as they have been moved to 2014 release dates.
Hot: August, Labor Day, Blue, Short Term and Book Thief.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Inside Llewyn Davis (2)
2) Nebraska (6)
3) Blue Jasmine (3)
4) American Hustle (1)
5) Her (5)
6) Gravity (-)
7) Saving Mr. Banks (4)
8) Lee Daniel's The Butler (8)
9) Fruitvale Station (7)
10) Dallas Buyers Club (-)
No drop outs
Hot Stuff: Gravity, Nebraska, Dallas Buyers
ANALYSIS
Here's the breakdown of the "Great Eight" categories vis-a-vis Telluride #40. If these predictions were true on nomination morning...
12 Years a Slave: Nominated in six (of these 8 categories...I really think it ends up with 11 overall): Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay.
Nebraska: 5 nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.
Gravity: 3 Nominations: Picture, Director, Actress and 1 possible for Original Screenplay.
Inside Llewyn Davis: 2 nominations: Picture, Original Screenplay. 3 possibles: Directors, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress.
All is Lost: 2 nominations: Picture, Actor, 1 possibility: Director.
Blue is the Warmest Color: 2 possibilities: Actress, Adapted Screenplay.
Labor Day: 2 possibilities: Actress, Adapted Screenplay.
The Past: 2 possibilities: Actress, Original Screenplay.
In the Big Eight categories Telluride #40 predicted currently to have 18 nominations and another 10 possibilities.
In terms of total nominations, I'm still expecting a record number for Telluride films this year. In the 30's is likely. 40+ is a stretch, but possible.
Other non-Telluride films expected to be big players;
Captain Phillips: 5 nominations.
American Hustle: 4 nominations and another 4 possibilities.
Saving Mr. Banks: 3 nominations and 2 possibles.
August: Osage County: 3 nominations and 2 possibles.
Lee Daniel's The Butler: 2 nominations and 3 possibles.
Dallas Buyers Club: 2 nominations and 2 possibles.
Blue Jasmine: 2 nominations and 2 possibles.
Philomena: 2 nominations.
The Wolf of Wall Street: 1 nomination and 3 possibles.
Her: 1 nomination and 3 possibles.
Before Midnight: 1 nomination and 1 possible.
Fruitvale Station: 4 possibles.
I suspect that "Wolf" lost some predictive steam because of its "limbo" status concerning its release date. Now that that has been resolved, I expect that it will begin to pick up some heat from Oscar pickers. I also think "Her" picked up some heat from its New York Film Fest debut and that it may still be gaining some momentum. Same is true for the London premiere of "Mr. Banks". Reports were very positive, so despite my "vibe" that it wouldn't make much of a dent, people in the know and that have seen it would beg to differ with me.
Right now, I also have a "vibe" that "Dallas Buyers Club" may be a more serious player than merely Actor and Supporting Actor nominations. I get the sense that it could rise in the Best Pic, Director and Screenplay races as well.
Bottom line for me is that "American Hustle" may still be the biggest threat to "12 Years" Oscar supremacy. Maybe "Wolf" as well, but I think the real race might come from the David O. Russell film. Even with that being said, my gut tells me that it'll be a "12 Years" night on Mar. 2. Multiple wins...Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actress, plus under the line wins for Costume, Production Design and maybe Score. Ejiofor won't win the Actor's trophy, though. I think it's going Redford's way.
TFF#40 ECHOS CONTINUE
12 YEARS A SLAVE NEWS
I continue to make it clear that this is the best film of the year. It continued its roll out this weekend by adding a few more cities. Coming this weekend it adds a slew more and if you didn't catch it in Telluride (or Toronto) I'd encourage you to go see it. Frankly, I'm going to find a way to see it again in a theater though I think the chances of it being programmed at my local 8 screener in the middle of the Oklahoma Panhandle is unlikely until it gets the 10-11 Oscar nominations that I think are coming its way. Probably going to have to catch it in Oklahoma City, Amarillo, Albuquerque or Santa Fe sometime in the next six weeks or so.
Nevertheless, for those who haven't seen the film or wish to re-visit it, The Playlist posted links to two clips and a Steve McQueen featurette here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-2-clips-directors-vision-featurette-for-steve-mcqueens-12-years-a-slave-20131024
Also, Canada.com's Bob Thompson talks to "12 Years" star Chiwetel Ejiofor:
http://o.canada.com/entertainment/scene-and-heard-12-years-a-slaves-chiwetel-ejiofor-would-rather-talk-about-the-film-than-the-oscars/
THE INVISIBLE WOMAN, VISIBLE IN A DIFFERENT CATEGORY
News reported by The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg that Felicity Jones who is the titular "Invisible Woman" in the Ralph Fiennes film will be campaigned by Sony Pictures Classics as a Best Actress candidate rather than Supporting which most observers thought would be the direction that SPC would take. Here's the post from Feinberg:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-invisible-womans-felicity-jones-651103
BLUE CONTINUES TO MAKE WAVES
Julian Scanton of Esquire talked recently to "Blue is the Warmest Color" co-star Lea Seydoux as the film continues to spark controversy and conflicting commentary and reportage from the stars and the director. Here's the Esquire interview with Seydoux:
http://www.esquire.com/blogs/culture/lea-seydoux-interview
FARHADI ON THE PAST AND THE FUTURE
.jpg)
Indie Wire's Laya Maheshwair talks to the Iranian genius about his current film and some thoughts about future projects:
http://www.indiewire.com/article/asghar-farhadi-on-oscar-odds-for-the-past-iranian-filmmaking-directing-an-opera-and-making-an-english-language-movie
ALL IS LOST'S CHANDOR ALSO PAST AND FUTURE
"All is Lost" director J.C. Chandor talked to Alex Billington at FirstShowing.net about the survival film starring Oscar favorite Robert Redford and also about some of his future plans:
http://www.firstshowing.net/2013/video-interview-talking-with-all-is-lost-writerdirector-j-c-chandor/
NEBRASKA IN NEW YORK
If there was no "12 Years a Slave" Alexnader Payne's "Nebraska" would probably be in the tank for. It or "Inside Llewyn Davis". Nevertheless, Edward Davis writing for The Playilist explores the tone of "Nebraska" and includes the link to the half hour conversation about the film from the New York Film Festival with Alexander Payne, Bruce Dern and Will Forte:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/nyff-alexander-payne-bruce-dern-will-forte-talk-the-particular-tone-of-nebraska-20131009
OSCAR MATTERS
In addition to the above addition to The Film Awards Clerainghouse, here are some other Oscar-y tidbits. For example, tale a look at the latest from Gold Derby (which varies a bit from The FAC):
http://www.goldderby.com/news/4952/gravity-12-years-a-slave-oprah-entertainment-news-721480395.html
And here is the link to the latest Oscar Podcast from Kris Tapley of HitFix/InContention and Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood:
http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-nyff-gotham-nominations-awards-contenders-head-for-2014
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-where-are-we-now
More to come on Thursday...
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