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Monday, February 22, 2016

The FAC Looks at the More Obscure Oscar Categories / Feinberg Forecast Update / Spotlight In Depth

It's Monday of Oscar week...


THE FAC LOOKS AT THE MORE OBSCURE OSCAR CATEGORIES



These eight categories are where serious Oscar prognosticators are separated from the mere hobbyists.  Categories like Sound Editing and Best Live Action Short really separate the wheat from the chaff in Oscar predicting world.

So here it is.  The FAC assessment of the lesser known Oscar categories.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire


TFF #42 films are in Bold.
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

 1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) The Revenant
3) The 100 Year Old Man Who...

 Comment:

 The FAC has Mad Max:Fury Road as a solid but not prohibitive favorite.
COSTUMES


1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Carol
3) The Danish Girl
4) Cinderella
5) The Revenant

 Comment:Max's lead is substantial but not insurmountable.  Carol could surprise.
SOUND EDITING

 1) The Revenant
2) Mad Max: Fury Road
3) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4) The Martian
5) Sicario

 SOUND MIXING

1) The Revenant
2) Mad Max:Fury Road
3) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4) The Martian
5) Bridge of Spies

Comment on the Sound categories:  In both cases, The Revenant lead is good but Mad Max is close enough in both categories to keep it interesting.

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Star Wars; The Force Awakens
2) The Revenant
3) Mad Max:Fury Road
4) The Martian
5) Ex Machina

Comment:  This is one of the closer categories in the entire list of 24 Oscar categories.  Star Wars is out front bu either The Revenant or Mad Max could win the trophy.


And now for the categories that really can make or break your Oscar office pool...The Shorts!


LIVE ACTION SHORT


1) Shok
2) Ave Maria
3) Day One
4) Stutterer
5) Everything Will Be Okay

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Claude Lanzman: Spectres of the Shoah
2) Body Team 12
3) Chau, Beyond the Lines
4) Last Day of Freedom
5) A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness


ANIMATED SHORT

1) World of Tomorrow
2) Sanjay's Super Team
3) Bear Story
4) We Can't Live Without Cosmos
5) Prologue


Comments about the Short categories:  Live Action: Shok's lead is strong but any of the next three films could pick up the prize.  Doc Short: Close battle between the top three.  Animated Short: Also a close fight between the top three.


 THURSDAY'S POST WILL INCLUDE THE FINAL FAC FOR ALL 24 OSCAR CATEGORIES...


FEINBERG FORECAST UPDATE


One of the sources that I use for The Film Awards Clearinghouse analysis of the Oscar race is The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg.  Scott updated hos latest forecast for Oscar winners on Friday and you can check those here:

SPOTLIGHT IN DEPTH


Spotlight trailer via YouTube
Over the past few days I have collected a number of articles, profiles, interviews and posts about TFF #42 and six time Oscar nominated film Spotlight.  Those are all linked below:

 http://www.ew.com/article/2016/02/18/spotlight-mark-ruffalo-dvd
More on Thursday...



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