THE (PROBABLY) FINAL FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Barring something really unusal happening between now and Sunday night, this is the best assessment that The FAC has about all 24 Oscar categories and what is likely to be announced by The Academy as the Best of film from 2015.
As always...
For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire
TFF #42 films are in Bold.
Live Action Short:
Winner: Shok
Spoiler(s) Day One,
Stutterer or Ave Maria
Documentary Short Subject:
Winner: Claude Lanzman:
Spectres of The Shoah
Spoiler(s): Either Body
Team 12 or Chau, Beyond the Lines
Animated Short:
Winner: World of Tomorrow
Spoiler(s): Sanjay's Super
Team or Bear Story
Sound Editing:
Winner: The Revenant
Spoiler: Mad Max: Fury
Road
Sound Mixing:
Winner: The Revenant
Spoiler: Mad Max: Fury
Road
Visual Effects:
Winner: Star Wars: The
Force Awakens
Spoilers: The Revenant or
Mad Max: Fury Road
Makeup/Hair:
Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Spoiler: The Revenant
Costumes:
Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Spoiler: Carol
Production Design:
Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Spoiler: The Revenant
Original Song:
Winner: Til It Happens to
You/The Hunting Ground
Spoiler: Writings on the
Wall/Spectre
Original Score:
Winner: The Hateful Eight
Spoiler: Star Wars; The
Force Awakens
Cinematography:
Winner: The Revenant
Spoiler: Mad Max; Fury
Road
Film Editing:
Winner:Mad Max: Fury Road
Spoiler: The Big Short
Documentary Feature:
Winner: Amy
Spoiler: Cartel Land
Animated Feature:
Winner: Inside Out
Spoiler: Anomalisa
Foreign Language Feature:
Winner: Son of Saul
Spoiler: Mustang
Original Screenplay:
Winner: Spotlight
Spoiler: Inside Out
Adapted Screenplay:
Winner: The Big Short
Spoiler: Room
Supporting Actor:
Winner: Sylvester Stallone/Creed
Spolier(s): Christian Bale/The Big Short or Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies
Supporting Actress:
Winner: Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl
Spoiler: Rooney Mara/Carol
Lead Actor:
Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant
Spoiler: Bryan Cranston/Trumbo
Lead Actress:
Winner: Brie Larson/Room
Spoiler: Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn
Director:
Winner: Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant
Spoiler: Adam McKay/The Big Short
Best Picture:
Winner: The Revenant
Spoiler(s): Either Spotlight or The Big Short
OSCAR ODDS AND ENDS
The likeliest categories for surprises (and the ones that will probably determine your office pool or your Gold Derby or Awards Daily Oscar contests) are: the three shorts categories, sound editing and mixing, production design, costumes, film editing, and Best Picture.
If The FAC is 100% accurate...
The night's big winner, and I do mean BIG, will Alejandro Inarritu's The Revenant, which The FAC is currently predicting as the winner of six Oscars: Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Cinematography, Direction, Lead Actor and Best Picture.
The ONLY other film that is predicted for multiple Oscars is Mad Max: Fury Road with four: Best Film Editing, Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.
All other winners look like they will be taking home single statues.
TFF #42 films will account for three Oscars for Spotlight's original screenplay, Son of Saul as Foreign Language Film and Brie Larson winning Best Actress for Room. Telluride could have films that play the spoiler in six other categories with the most likely spoilers being Sanjay's Super Team as Animated Short and Spotlight as Best Picture.
The FAC historical accuracy record is 76%. I've been crunching numbers since the 2010 Oscars but The FAC has gotten better over time. The accuracy rate for the past two years has been 88%.
Here's the year by year rate since I started:
2010: 14/24
2011: 17/24
2012: 18/24
2013: 18/24
2014: 22/24
2015: 20/24
As weird as this season has been, I wouldn't be surprised if The FAC reverted back to an 18/24 correct prediction rate on Sunday night.
FOLLOW MTFB/FAC ON TWITTER @Gort2 FOR LIVE OSCAR UPDATES AND VARIOUS COMMENTARY ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
FINAL(?) OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS
Here are links to some of the best in the Oscar prognostication business and their final picks for what will happen on Sunday night. I'll up date these predictions as a standalone post through the weekend...so keep checking back for the latest links.
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention:
http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/oscar-predictions-winners-1201710084/
Pete Hammond/Deadline.com:
http://deadline.com/2016/02/oscars-2016-winners-predictions-academy-awards-handicap-1201701700/
Dave Karger/Fandango:
http://www.fandango.com/features/winning-your-2016-oscar-pool/
Gurus of Gold/Movie City News:
http://moviecitynews.com/2016/02/gurus-o-gold-our-best-guess-our-final-guess/
Check back here at MTFB/FAC for Oscar prediction updates from the experts through the weekend and a first look at Oscar results in Monday's post.
Contact me at:
michael_speech@hotmail.com OR
mpgort@gmail.com OR
via Twitter @Gort2 OR to
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