AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:
Here are your winners from the 90th Academy Awards as announced last night (***indicates a missed prediction):
Best Picture: The Shape of Water
Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actor: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Supporting Actress; Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory/Call Me By Your Name
Best Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele/Get Out
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Best Animated Feature: Coco
Best Documentary: Icarus
Best Film Editing: Dunkirk
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049 (Deakins finally wins!)
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
Best Original Song: Remember Me/Coco
Best Makeup/Hair: Darkest Hour
Best Costumes: Phantom Thread
Best Sound Editing Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049***
Best Documentary Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405***
Best Live Action Short: The Silent Child***
Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball
The Shape of Water led the pack with four Oscars: Picture, Director, Original Score and Production Design
Dunkirk had three: Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Darkest Hour had two: Actor and Makeup/Hair
Three Billboards had two: Actress and Supporting Actor
Coco had two: Animated Feature and Song
Blade Runner 2049 had two: Cinematography and Visual Effects
TFF #44 films took home seven Oscars for Best Picture, Director, Original Score, Actor, Foreign Language Film, Production Design, Makeup/Hair.
THE TELLURIDE STREAK CONTINUES
Beginning in 2008 with Slumdog Millionaire, nine of the last ten Best Picture winners have come through Telluride. That run now includes a string of eight in a row. The Shape of Water's win last night continues the streak:
2008: Slumdog Millionaire
2009: The Hurt Locker (not at TFF)
2010: The King's Speech
2011: The Artist
2012: Argo
2013: 12 Years a Slave
2014: Birdman
2015: Spotlight
2016: Moonlight
2017: The Shape of Water
That may finally mean that we can say that the best indicator/precursor for predicting what will win Best Picture now is a Telluride appearance. It seems, after this crazy and unpredictable and suspenseful Oscar season that a TFF play is more reliable than almost any other precursor whether that's a guild award or some other awards program.
At least until it isn't.
Undoubtedly, the time will come when some film will win Best Picture that does NOT play Telluride. That's inevitable and this year seemed like a prime year for that to be true but right this minute, this morning...if I were a film maker, producer, Oscar groomer, whatever...and I wanted my film to be a serious player for the big prize a year from now, I'd be busting my hump to get selected for TFF #45.
One other note: Last night's win for Del Toro for Best Director and Best Picture was particularly sweet after the Del Toro experience we had, especially that my wife had at the fest last fall. Again, for those who reached out and busted their buns to help make her meeting the new Oscar winner possible, thank you. You know who you are and many of you swore me to keep your efforts quiet...so ...no names...but, again...thank you from the depths of my soul.
I'll have more on Thursday...with further thoughts as well as an analysis of TFF #44's impact on Oscar.
BETTER THAN LAST YEAR
Just a quick note that MTFB went 21 of 24 for Oscar predicting last night (after a late change in the Documentary category to Icarus). As usual, the Shorts portion cratered the night. I was 1 of 3 for the Shorts and 20 of 21 everywhere else.
And...look out...I'll talk Thursday about the Telluride film ratings we do here with the attendees, professionals and their composite. It has become a ridiculously reliable bellwether for Oscar.
More on Thursday!
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
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