FINAL OSCAR #90 PREDICTIONS
Here are MTFB's final Oscar predictions for 2018. Accuracy you ask? Last year was a semi-disaster as I only correctly predicted 15 of the 24 categories. That repeated 2016's tally. That came on the heels of the 2015 and 16 Oscars where I was on fire going 40 of 48 over the previous two years.
Here's
2017: 15/24
2016: 15/24
2015: 20/24
2014: 22/24
2013: 18/24
2012: 18/24
2011: 17/24
2010: 14/24
The overall record for the past eight years of Oscar predicting: 139/192 for a 72.4% success rate. All that means that the the average suggests that I'll hit about 17 or 18 of these and miss on six or seven.
With that in mind here are MTFB's predictions for The 90th Academy Awards:
BEST PICTURE
1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) Dunkirk
5) Lady Bird
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) Darkest Hour
9) The Post
The top five seem like the only real candidates and their positions are fluid. We've gotten used to having a two horse race down the finish these past few years:
Moonlight vs. La La Land
Spotlight vs. The Revenant
Birdman vs. Boyhood
12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity
But this year...you can make a reasonable case for any of the top four and Lady Bird still has a path to the big prize. I'm putting the nomination leader and PGA/DGA winner at the top: The Shape of Water
Late note: I have moved Get Out ahead of Dunkirk to the #3 spot as of 11am (CDT) Sunday morning.
BEST ACTRESS
It's Frances McDormand's. Upset specials: Sally Hawkins or Saoirse Ronan.
BEST ACTOR
Gary Oldman for the win. Timothee Chalamet is your best chance at a spoiler.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Allison Janney has this sown up in a race that was once perceived as a tight contest with Laurie Metcalf. If anyone would upset, it would be her.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sam Rockwell with the win in another category that was initially thought to be competitive with Willem Dafoe.
BEST DIRECTION
Guillermo Del Toro is your favorite to win here but it's not a lock. Christopher Nolan is a possible upset.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
No one thinks it's likely that anyone but James Ivory wins for Call Me By Your Name. Upset special: Aaron Sorkin for Molly's Game.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
A category that is very competitive. Three Billboards and Get Out are thought to be the favorite with Lady Bird and The Shape of Water with an outside chance. My call, for the moment: Get Out.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Coco is an incredibly prohibitive favorite. If there were a spoiler it might be The Breadwinner.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
This is all over the place. I've run across support for the notion of any one of the five films winning the trophy Sunday night. For the moment, let's call the winner A Fantastic Woman with The Square and Loveless also possible.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Another difficult race. I've changed this prediction to Icarus with TFF #44's Faces Places as the upset possible.
BEST FILM EDITING
A tight race between Dunkirk and Baby Driver. I'm going with Dunkirk.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will it be Roger Deakins' year, finally, for Blade Runner 2049? I'm saying yes but there is also a lot of support for Dunkirk and The Shape of Water.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Shape of Water seems most likely followed by Blade Runner 2049.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Another toss up. I'm going with Remember Me from Coco with This Is Me from The Greatest Showman as the upset special.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat looks to have the inside track for The Shape of Water. Hans Zimmer could get it for Dunkirk.
I'm expecting Phantom Thread to win this with The Shape of Water as a potential spoiler.
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
The overwhelming sentiment is that the crew from Darkest Hour will win for their transformation of Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill. Wonder could challenge, but likely will not.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
A very competitive category from which I'm predicting War for the Planet of the Apes but Blade Runner 2049 or Last Jedi could also play.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Dunkirk. Maybe Baby Driver.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Dunkirk. Maybe Baby Driver.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Dear Basketball is my pick here to win. Runner Up: Garden Party
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
DeKalb Elementary with The Silent Child as your upset special.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Edith and Eddie edges out Heroin(e).
If these predictions are 100% accurate (and they won't be...see above) then TFF #44 films will lay out this way:
The Shape of Water wins four : Best Picture, Direction, Original Score and Production Design
Darkest Hour wins two: Best Actor and Makeup/Hair
A Fantastic Woman; Best Foreign Language Film
Total Telluride take: Seven Oscars.
Other multiple winners:
Dunkirk with three: Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Three Billboards with two: Best Actress and Supporting Actor
Coco wins two: Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song
Among feature categories, seven films will pick up a single Oscar:
I, Tonya: Best Supporting Actress
Get Out: Best Original Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name: Best Adapted Screenplay
Icarus: Best Doc
Blade Runner 2049: Best Cinematography (Roger Deakins finally gets Oscar)
War for the Planet of the Apes: Best Visual Effects
Phantom Thread: Best Costumes
OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS
Here's an analysis of Oscar predictions from expert Oscarologists with links to their final picks.
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Sasha and I diverge on Best Pic. She has Three Billboards. Other spots where we disagree and Sasha's picks in each:
Song: Mighty River
Foreign Film: The Insult
Doc Short: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Animated Short: Garden Party
Live Action Short: My Nephew Emmett
Kristopher Tapley-Variety/InContention
Kris and I diverge in four categories: Kris has:
Original Screenplay: Three Billboards
Song: This Is Me
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Doc Short: Heroin(e)
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Scott has five differences from my picks:
Foreign Language: The Insult
Production Design: Blade Runner 2049
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Doc Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Live Action Short: The Eleven O'Clock
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Anne and I match a good deal. We differ in two categories:
Documentary: Faces Places
Doc Short: Heroin(e)
Awards Watch
Erik Anderson's group and I diverge in six places:
Song: This Is Me
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Doc: Last Men in Aleppo
Foreign Language Film: Loveless
Doc Short: Heroin(e)
Live Action Short: The Silent Child
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist
Greg and I are hugely agreeable only picking one category differently. Greg's picks that are different from mine:
Doc Short: Heroin(e)
Pete Hammond/Deadline
Pete and I diverge in three categories: He says:
Foreign Language Film: The Insult
Doc Short: Heroin(e)
Animated Short: Negative Space
I'll have more in tomorrow morning's regularly scheduled post.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)
FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page
COMMENT TO THE BLOG
No comments:
Post a Comment