The last post of June has, over the past few years, become the post in which I lay down my first "Ten Bets" guesses for the Telluride Film Festival. Most years, when I go back and look at the success rate of first "Tens" I'm feeling pretty good if I land 5 out of 10 that actually play over Labor Day weekend. Here's the track record since I began the "Ten Bets" model of TFF predicting:
2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10
2019: 4/10
Average: 5.4 per year.
So, I'm rolling up my sleeves and am going to make an attempt at a first Ten Bets for this year...but I'm already pleading a pre-emptive "mea culpa" for getting so much wrong.
10) Ammonite
9) Undine
8) The Secrets We Keep
7) Forgotten We'll Be
6) Untitled Garbus/Cortes Voting Rights Doc
5) Fireball
4) Nomadland
3) John Prine: Hello in There
2) Small Axe (Mangrove and/or Lover's Rock)
1) There Is No Evil
SOME SURPRISING TIDBITS
I ran across a couple of eye-opening news items since my last post. First, the revelation from member of the TFF Board of Governors Ken Burns in an interview/Awards Chatter podcast with The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg that he will not be attending TFF #47. From the article accompanying the podcast:
"However, Burns, whose Beatles-like haircut makes him instantly recognizable wherever he goes, laments that because of the pandemic, he cannot to some places he would like to, such as the Telluride Film Festival, which takes place in Colorado's Rocky Mountains each Labor Day weekend. "I've gone for 30 straight years, 31 overall," he says. "I premiered Huey Long [his 1985 doc] there, and then The Civil War, and I've never not gone [since]. It's incredibly painful not to go there, but I don't want to turn Telluride into Manhattan when it was a hot spot."
That's a lightning bolt.
The Feinberg article as well as the link to the complete interview are here.
Additionally both Indiewire's Anne Thompson and Deadline's Pete Hammond had some thoughts on Saturday about Telluride and the other fall fests in an interview with Gold Derby.
Thompson talks about TFF perhaps being a down-sized event:
"Anne Thompson of Indiewire and Pete Hammond of Deadline — they are both doubtful that an event in the less-populated state of Colorado will welcome outsiders with open arms this year. Thompson has booked a room for the time being, but also adds it is refundable. “I am prepared to go if it is happening.” But, realistically, she can’t see the festival allowing film journalists to attend who live in such large metropolitan areas as New York City and Los Angeles, where the COVID-19 numbers are high. She believes it just might be a local event, given all the restrictions it would have to overcome."
Hammond is even more provocative in a couple of statements. He suggests that Telluride should announce titles beforehand rather than following their normal practice of announcing the day before the fest starts:
“Telluride is a big question mark for me. I haven’t decided if I am going , and definitely won’t if they don’t announce what movies they have a la TIFF. They normally don’t until the day before the fest, but this year is different and I don’t know if it is worth it."
We had heard (via Thompson in an earlier story at Indiewire) that Telluride would be announcing further plans in mid-July. Hammond suggests that deadline might carry more weight than a listing of precautions that the festival would take:
"Heard as of two weeks ago for them the movies still aren’t there and they are waiting until mid-July to make a final call on go or no go.”
The complete article from Gold Derby is here.
THE DISTRIBS: AMAZON STUDIOS
Amazon Studios has been a constant player at Telluride since appearing for the first time in 2016. Last year, however, their TFF entries did not become awards season players. Here's the rundown of Amazon Studios films that have played TFF in their relatively short history:
2019: The Aeronauts, The Report
2018: Peterloo, Cold War
2017: Wonderstruck
2016: Manchester by the Sea
This year's most likely Amazon players look to be:
Steve McQueen's two Cannes "selected" films that are a part of his Small Axe project. Both Mangrove and Lover's Rock carry the "Selection of Cannes" label as two of the 56 films named a few weeks back. McQueen has a significant history with Telluride having screened Hunger, Shame and 12 Years a Slave there.
Will Sharpe's feature directing debut is the biopic of 19th century artist Louis Wain starring Benedict Cumberbatch. The film also stars Andrea Riseborough and Claire Foy.
The untitled Liz Garbus/Lisa Cortes Voting Rights documentary featuring former Georgia gubernatorial candidate and voting rights activist Stacey Abrams-particularly timely in this election year.
And finally, Julia Hart's woman on the run film starring The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel's Rachel Brosnahan.
Chances:
Mangrove and/or Lover's Rock 50%
Garbus/Cortes Doc 40%
Louis Wain 25%
I'm Your Woman 20%
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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