Michael's Telluride Film Blog : MTFB Oscar Update: First Winner Predictions Part Four / Visitations: Polley, Whishaw, Buckley and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE FIRST WINNER PREDICTIONS PART FOUR

Here's the last of my first pass at predicting what films and performances will win Oscars on March 12th. Over the past two weeks I have predicted the other 18 categories. Going forward I will continue to update categories at the same intervals culminating in a final set of predictions on Oscar morning. Today's initial predictions for the final five categories follow. TFF films in Bold.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: The Way of Water

2) Top Gun: Maverick

3) All Quiet on the Western Front

4) The Batman

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST SOUND

1) Top Gun: Maverick

2) Elvis

3) All Quiet on the Western Front

4) Avatar: The Way of Water

5)The Batman

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

2) An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake...

3) The Flying Sailor

4) My Year of Dicks

5) Ice Merchants

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) How Do You Measure a Year?

2) The Elephant Whisperers

3) The Martha Mitchell Effect

4) Stranger at the Gate

5) Haulout

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Le Pupille

2) An Irish Goodbye

3) The Red Suitcase

4) Ivalu

5) The Night Ride

Comments:

The Visual Effects win for Avatar/Water and Sound win for TG: Maverick seem pretty likely at this point.

As always the Short Films categories are really anyone's guess, though the buzz for The Boy, the Mole etc. has it feeling like the most certain winner in any of the three shorts categories. The Doc and Live Action Shorts categories are totally up in the air.

After the initial prognostications over the past two weeks I have TFF films winning four statues on March 12th:

Cate Blanchett/Best Actress/TAR

Women Talking/Adapted Screenplay

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Best Doc

Le Pupille/Best Live Action Short

And among the 20 feature categories, win totals predicted:

Films with multiple predicted wins:

Everything Everywhere wins three Oscars for Best Picture, Ke Huy Quan/Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay.

Elvis with four: Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

The Fabelmans with one: Steven Spielberg/Best Direction.

Top Gun: Maverick with two: Editing and Sound

Films with single predicted wins:

TAR: Cate Blanchett/Lead Actress.

The Whale: Brendan Fraser/Lead Actor.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: Angela Bassett/Supporting Actress.

Women Talking: Adapted Screenplay.

Babylon: Original Score.

RRR: Original Song.

All Quiet on the Western Front: International Feature.

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio: Animated Feature.

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Documentary Feature.

Avatar: The Way of Water: Visual Effects.

I can still see the possibility of Everything Everywhere winning up to six. The three I have predicted at this point plus Direction, Actress and Editing.

I have Banshees being shut out, but it's still very much alive for Original Screenplay and Colin Farrell is still a viable Best Actor winner. We'll see how that evolves over the next few weeks.

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