Oscar Matters and The Argo Surge/The Sapphires Win/The Gatekeepers/A Peak Inside Llewyn Davis

OSCAR MATTERS

Oscar finals ballots are still over a week away from being in the hands of Academy members and the reading of the Oscar tea leaves has continued this week in the light of the "Argo" groundswell.  The Ben Affleck directed (and TFF #39 "sneak") over the past couple of weeks has won The Critic's Choice, Golden Globe for Drama, Producers Guild and SAG Ensemble.  This coming weekend may be the turning point with the Directors Guild award being announced on Saturday and a lot of people think it will be Affleck winning.

Irrespective of the DGA award, many Oscar pundits have already jumped on the "Argo" express.  If you looked at this space on Monday, you saw that The FAC now shows "Argo" in second, behind "Lincoln" but gaining ground.  Many Oscarologists have since staked their claim that "Argo" will win Best Picture...take a look at the Gold Derby story here...

     +GOLD DERBY SHOWS ARGO SURGE

http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/experts/oscars-2012/best-picture.html

     +FEINBERG FORECAST

Here's the latest prognostication from Hollywood Reporter Awards Guru Scott Feinberg...who, incidentally has moved "Argo" to number one on his Best Picture prediction.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-updated-projections-4-414749


Also, you can take a listen to a bevy of Oscar specialists in various podcast forms here:

     +OSCAR PODCAST/AWARDS DAILY

http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpodcast/episode18.mp3

    +OSCAR POKER with Jeff Wells and Sasha Stone

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2013/01/post-argo-sweep.php

     +GOLD DERBY PODCAST

http://ec.libsyn.com/p/4/b/d/4bd313499d96f8ba/Thelma_Oscars_jan_28_2013.mp3?d13a76d516d9dec20c3d276ce028ed5089ab1ce3dae902ea1d01cd8e32d4c8581e24&c_id=5351246

THE SAPPHIRES WIN

"Sapphires" director and Aussie Oscar winner Wayne Blair and some guy...

I reported (thanks to friend of the blog Patrick Pringle) on Monday that Wayne Blair's "The Sapphires" was half way through a very good account at the Australian version of The Oscars and that that would conclude on Wednesday.  It did and "The Sapphires" run continued as it ended the bifurcated two day affair with 11 total awards including Best Picture, Direction, Screenplay and acting accolades for Chris O'Dowd , Deborah Mailman and Jessica Mauboy.  Check the story from Reuters here:

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/01/30/film-australia-awards-sapphires-idINDEE90T09A20130130


THE GATEKEEPERS

Sony Pictures Classics has a website up for its Oscar nominated Doc (and TFF #39 feature) "The Gatekeepers".  It's generally regarded as the only possible challenger in that category to "Searching for Sugarman"  See here:

http://sonyclassics.com/thegatekeepers/

Additionally, The New York Times posted this story about how the people of Israel seem to be reacting to the film:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/27/movies/awardsseason/gatekeepers-oscar-nominee-has-muted-reaction-in-israel.html



INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS

Carey Mulligan and Justin Timberlake in "Inside Llewyn Davis" (via The Playlist)

It's not a secret that I'm a huge Coen Brothers fan.  I have a dream that one day they will bring a film to Telluride where, I'm afraid, I may pull a "Wayne and Garth" on Colorado Avenue or at the Patron's Brunch and fall to me knees in front of them with exclamations of "I'm not worthy!"

Admittedly, there's not a big chance that that's going to happen any time soon, but a guy can dream.  And this year's dream focuses on their new film "Inside Llewyn Davis" which, as you might expect, I've been bird dogging for months.

Now it appears to be on the brink of readiness.  We have a trailer (see below).  We have reports of a private screening and the possibility of a Cannes slot.  We have rumors of a fall release and awards positioning.  That's all mentioned in the following articles from The Playlist and Get the Big Picture:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/2-new-images-from-inside-llewyn-davis-movie-may-premiere-at-the-cannes-film-festival-20130128

http://www.getthebigpicture.net/blog/2013/1/24/inside-llewyn-davis-trailer-yesthe-new-coen-bros-movie-need.html

And, via YouTube, here's the trailer...

More on Monday...

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FAC Update/Argo Rises/Sapphires Coming/Oscar Matters/No Ads

Good Monday to All...

"Argo" lovers...and there appear to be a lot of them, had a good weekend.

FAC UPDATE:

Here’s this week’s installment of The Film Awards Clearinghouse focusing on Best Picture and Costumes, Production Design, Visual Effects, Makeup, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold.


BEST PICTURE

1) Lincoln (1)

2) Argo (4)

3) Silver Linings Playbook (2)

4) Life of Pi (3)

5) Les Miserables (6)

6) Zero Dark Thirty (5)

7) Django Unchained (9)

8) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7)

9) Amour (8)


Comment: It took a week, but my professionals prediction metric has begun to catch up with he ntion that “Argo” has been/is staging a comeback. And this week’s posting does not include whatever momentum that it may have gained from this weekend’s double wins at The Producers Guild and The Screen Actor’s Guild. “Argo” may, in fact, be the frontrunner now.


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Anna Karenina

2) Lincoln

3) Les Miserables

4) Mirror Mirror

5) Snow White and The Huntsman

Comment: Close battle between “Anna” and “Lincoln”


COSTUME

1) Anna Karenina

2) Lincoln

3) Les Miserables

4) Life of Pi

5) The Hobbit

Comment: “Anna” is way out front here.


MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Hobbit

2) Les Miserables

3) Hitchcock

Comment: “Les Miz” is very close to “The Hobbit”.


VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Life of Pi

2) The Hobbit

3) The Avengers

4) Prometheus

5) Snow White and The Huntsman

Comment: “Pi” and “The Hobbit” are very tightly bunched.


SOUND EDITING

1) Life of Pi

2) Skyfall

3) Zero Dark Thirty

4) Argo

5) Django Unchained

Comment: “Pi” and “Skyfall” close together in this category.


SOUND MIXING

1) Skyfall

2) Les Miserables

3) Life of Pi

4) Lincoln

5) Argo

Comment: “Skyfall” and “Les Miz” are also very close in this category.


ARGO RISES

"Argo", the Ben Affleck directed thriller with 7 Oscar nominations and which was thought to be essentially out of the race for Best Picture as recently as a couple of weeks ago due largely to the lack of a Best Direction nomination for Affleck has roared back into contention with some of our Oscar predicting friends now claiming that it's back in the favorites role.  This all comes before a single final vote has been cast...that doesn't start until Feb. 8.

But the "Argo" onslaught has been unmissable in the past couple of weeks as it won The Producers Guild Award Saturday night for Best Picture and Best Ensemble last night at The Screen Actors Guild Awards.  Couple that with previous wins at The Critic's Choice Awards and The Golden Globes and it starts to look like the wave is pretty big.

Here's the list of last night's winners from The Screen Actor's Guild from Movie City News:

http://moviecitynews.com/2013/01/sag-aftra-honors-outstanding-film-and-television-performances-at-the-19th-annual-screen-actors-guild-awards/


SAPPHIRES COMING

In the midst of all The Oscar precursor hoopla comes word about another favorite from this year's SHOW.  Wayne Blair's "The Sapphires" has , according to Brad Brevet at Rope of Silicon. a U.S. release date of Mar. 22nd.

That news also comes as "The Sapphires" is in the middle of doing very, very well at Australia's version of The Oscars.  With 12 nominations altogether, "The Sapphires" led the way for the AACTA (Australian Academy of Cinema and Television Arts).  The Aussies bifurcate their awards presentation and have handed out several of the prizes this weekend.  Deadline.com reports that "The Sapphires" has won five early awards for Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design and Sound.



http://www.deadline.com/2013/01/%E2%80%98the-sapphires%E2%80%99-dominates-early-australian-cinema-tv-academy-awards/

The remaining awards will be presented Wednesday.

My thinks to friend of the blog Patrick Pringle who kindly dropped a line or two alerting me to the goings on down under.

OSCAR MATTERS

     +A FEW MINUTES WITH FEINBERG

The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg's video view of the awards season:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/a-few-minutes-feinberg-world-415453

     +OSCAR TALK

Kris Tapley and Anne Thompson talk Oscar:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-103-sundance-reflections-pga-and-sag-awards-preview

     +GURUS OF GOLD

The latest Best Picture chart from the Gurus put togther by the Movie City News shows a tightening race between "Argo" and "Lincoln"...and that was BEFORE the PGA and SAG wins this weekend:

http://moviecitynews.com/2013/01/gurus-o-gold-a-month-to-go/


NO ADS

Sony Pictures Classic has posted new material to the Foregin Language Oscar nominees official website:

http://sonyclassics.com/no/


More on Thursday...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

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Oscar Matters/Argo/No

Good Thursday morning America...

Today's post is fairly truncated as we're kind of in a dead zone of activity Oscar wise.  The final voting doesn't start until Feb. 8 and a bunch of the film world has been in Park City, Utah for The Sundance Film Festival.  Nevertheless...


OSCAR MATTERS

This is one of the two posters released this week for the 85th Oscars.  The other (below) features host Seth Mc Farlane:

     +GOLD DERBY

Tom O'Neil has posted another podcast with Oscar speculation.  His guest for this time around is Matt Atchity from Rotten Tomatoes.  Here's the link:

http://ec.libsyn.com/p/e/b/7/eb79c3d302f9cef1/Matt_Atchity_1.mp3?d13a76d516d9dec20c3d276ce028ed5089ab1ce3dae902ea1d01cd8e37d2ca5b7591&c_id=5332831

     +BIG TURNOUT

Gold Derby also reported this week that The Academy announced improved voter participation this year despite reports of difficulty with the new online voting system:

http://www.goldderby.com/news/3892/online-voting-boosted-oscars-voter-turnout.html

     +RACE NOT OVER

Meanwhile, The Daily Beast posted analysis this week suggesting that TFF #39 sneak preview "Argo" might still win Best Picture on Feb. 24:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/01/22/at-the-oscars-argo-will-win-best-picture.html


ARGO

Speaking of the Ben Affleck directed film...Gold Derby has an interview from earlier this week with Oscar nominated editor William Goldenberg, nominated for "Argo" and "Zero Dark Thirty":

http://www.goldderby.com/news/3897/watch-'argo'-'zero'-editor-william-goldenberg-on-competing-against-his-mentor-for-oscar.html


NO

And finally, Oscar nominated foreign language film (from Chile) "No" from director Pablo Larrain and featuring Gael Garcia Bernal has 7 new clips available and all accessed via this post from The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-7-clips-from-pablo-larrains-oscar-nominated-no-starring-gael-garcia-bernal-20130123

More on Monday...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

The FAC: 15 Oscar Categories and Where We Stand/Oscar Matters/TFF #39: This and That/Big Dates

Good Martin Luther King, Jr. Day to All...

THE FAC: 15 OSCAR CATEGORIES

Here’s the first look from The Film Awards Clearinghouse at the Oscar field since the nominations were announced and in light of The Golden Globes that were awarded last weekend.  This week, I’m taking a look at 15 of the 24 Oscar categories that will be awarded on Feb. 24^th.  Films/Individuals ranked in order of the likelihood of winning.

The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1)      Lincoln

2)      Silver Linings Playbook

3)      Life of Pi

4) Argo

5)      Zero Dark Thirty

6)      Les Miserables

7)      Beasts of the Southern Wild

8) Amour

9)      Django Unchained

Comment:  The BIG category is still generally regarded by our panel of Oscar experts as “Lincoln’s” to lose.  Its lead is substantial.  If there is a challenge, different experts have different theories about where that might come from. 

“Silver Linings” has all the right boxes checked off with acting nominations in each of the four categories plus nominations for directing, writing and editing…all of which generally are regarded as crucial to Best Picture Oscar success. 

“Life of Pi’s” claim to be the usurper comes from being the second most nominated film with 11, only 1 behind “Lincoln”.

“Argo’s” theory of upset is a little more of a labyrinth…involving the rectification of the perceived slight to Ben Affleck in not being nominated for Best Direction…again, some think that many in the directing branch thought his nomination was assured and looked elsewhere to spread the nominations around.  The theory goes that so many voters did that that Ben was left off the list entirely…Maybe. 

Actually, a buddy of mine who’s  a member of that branch of The Academy has suggested as much himself.  And, realistically, I think that had Affleck been nominated, “Argo” would be the easy upset pick…maybe even edging into a co-favorite position with “Lincoln”  My understanding is that trend of thinking has captured a number of the Oscar experts that are surveyed by The Gold Derby and Movie City News’ Gurus of Gold.

Nevertheless, it hasn’t turned up that way in my first review of the nine Oscarologists that I use for The Film Awards Clearinghouse as “Argo” sits at #4, though the spread between #2 and #4 is very small.

None of the other five films are remotely close.

BEST DIRECTION

1)      Steven Spielberg/Lincoln

2)      Ang Lee/Life of Pi

3)      David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook

4)      [tie] Michael Haneke/Amour and Benh Zeitlin/Beasts of the Southern Wild

Comment:  As goes “Lincoln” so goes the directing category.  Spielberg’s lead is substantial over Lee.

BEST ACTRESS

1)      Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings

2)      Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty

3) Emmanuelle Riva/Amour

4)      Quvenzhane Wallis/Beasts

5)      Naomi Watts/The Impossible

Comments:  A category that is regarded as being tight, wasn’t as close as I thought it would be when I ran the numbers.  It’s close, but Lawrence has an edge.

BEST ACTOR

1)      Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln

2)      Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables

3)      Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings

4)      Denzel Washington/Flight

5)      Joaquin Phoenix/The Master

Comment: DDL for the win…

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1)      Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables

2)      Sally Field/Lincoln

3)      Helen Hunt/The Sessions

4)      Amy Adams/The Master

5)      Jacki Weaver/Silver Linings

Comment:  Anne Hathaway…start planning a place for your trophy…she’s way out front.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1)      Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master

2)      Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln

3)      Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings

4)      Christoph Waltz/Django

5) Alan Arkin/Argo

Comment:  This is a great and very competitive category.  I was surprised to find Hoffman with a slight lead over Tommy Lee Jones using my metric, but it’s very, very close.  Waltz and DeNiro aren’t all that far behind either.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1)      Tony Kushner/Lincoln

2)      David O. Russell/Silver Linings

3) Chris Terrio/Argo

4)      David Magee/Life of Pi

5)      Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin/Beasts

Comment: Looks like Kushner’s to lose.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1)      Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained

2)      Mark Boal/Zero Dark Thirty

3) Michael Haneke/Amour

4)      Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola/Moonrise Kingdom

5)      John Gatins/Flight

Comment: This is a very close category among the top three contenders.  3 points separate them.  Fun to watch this over the next few weeks.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Amour

2) A Royal Affair

3) No

4)      War Witch

5)      Kon Tiki

Comment: “Amour” FTW.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1)      Brave

2)      Frankenweenie

3)      Wreck It Ralph

4)      ParaNorman

5)      Pirates: Band of Misfits

Comment: Another category that’s very tight among the top 3.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1)      Searching for Sugarman

2) The Gatekeepers

3)      How to Survive a Plague

4)      The Invisible War

5)      5 Broken Cameras

Comment: “Sugarman’s” search for an Oscar ends in victory on Feb. 24…it’s way, way out front.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1)      Life of Pi

2)      Skyfall

3)      Lincoln

4)      Anna Karenina

5)      Django Unchained

Comment: “Pi” looks solidly in the lead with Roger Deakins looking to finally win an Oscar (for “Skyfall”) apparently its only real threat.

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Argo

2)      Zero Dark Thirty

3)      Lincoln

4)      Life of Pi

5)      Silver Linings Playbook

Comment: A close race between William Goldenberg (Argo) and himself (with Dylan Tichenor for Zero Dark Thirty).  Lincoln also has a shot.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1)      Life of Pi

2)      Lincoln

3)      Anna Karenina

4) Argo

5)      Skyfall

Comment: Actually, this is a tie between “Pi” and “Lincoln”…with “Anna” and “Argo” close enough to steal it away.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1)      Skyfall (Skyfall)

2)      Les Miserables (Suddenly)

3)      Chasing Ice (Before My Time)

4)      Ted (Everybody Needs a Friend)

5)      Life of Pi (Pi’s Lullaby)

Comment: What has been perceived as a close contest between “Skyfall” and “Les Miz” is perceived now as a fairly comfortable lead for “Skyfall” after The Golden Globes.

Next week, I’ll update the Top 6 categories and take a look at the other feature categories left out in this post…Sound Mixing and Editing, Costume, Makeup and Hair, Production Design and Visual Effects.

OSCAR MATTERS

Taking a look at the Oscar predictions and analysis from some of the best in the business...


     +GOLD DERBY...TWO PODCASTS...

http://ec.libsyn.com/p/c/9/5/c95b1fbb7c423cea/Oscar_Predictions_USA_Today.mp3?d13a76d516d9dec20c3d276ce028ed5089ab1ce3dae902ea1d01cd8f30d1cc5dad2f&c_id=5321391

http://ec.libsyn.com/p/b/f/d/bfd18a54722c3576/LAT_Oscars_Predictions.mp3?d13a76d516d9dec20c3d276ce028ed5089ab1ce3dae902ea1d01cd8f30d1cf5b5f91&c_id=5327818

Gold Derby also reports that the race is narrowing with "Argo" sneaking up on "Lincoln".  I haven't seen that...yet but Gold Derby has a larger sample of Oscarologists.  Here's that post:

http://www.goldderby.com/news/3872/argo-oscars-academy-awards-lincoln-zero-dark-thirty-les-miserables-silver-linings-playbook-entertainment-news-718593624.html


     +FEINBERG FORECAST

The latest predictions for Oscar from The Hollywood Reporters' Scott Feinberg:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-updated-projections-5-413908

     +THE HOLLYWOOD REPORTERS

Scott Feinberg and Gregg Kilday look at the Oscar race post-Globes in this video:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/best-picture-oscar-frontrunner-hollywood-413423


TFF #39: THIS AND THAT (about films that played at this year's fest)

     +AFFLECK ON 'ARGO"

YouTube has this up with Ben Affleck talking about the process of making the film that has 7 Oscar nominations:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=6TAn6j9OKcI

     +A ROYAL AFFAIR

Now that it has secured an Oscar nomination for Best Foreign Language Film, Magnolia is re-releasing Denmark's Mads Mikkelsen starrer, "A Royal Affair" according to Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/a-royal-affair-re-released

     +"AT ANY PRICE"

It's won't surprise readers of this blog when I repeat that I thought this film was borderline awful when I caught it at this year's SHOW...This year's "Butter" or "Fur"...just not a good movie.  Although that sentiment wasn't universal.  Alex Billington at FirstShowing.net loved it, for example.  Nevertheless, in an effort to be a full service blog...here's the news: Sony Pictures Classics has released the official trailer for the film that stars Dennis Quaid and Zac Efron.  Here's the note from SPC:

http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/at-any-price/trailers/price-trailer-171017552.html

And here's the trailer:

BIG DATES

So, what's left on the calendar of import between now and the Oscar presentation?  Here are the dates that may still hold some clues for Oscar diviners (per Sasha Stone at Awards Daily):

Oscar final voting runs from Feb. 8-19.
Producers Guild announces: Jan. 26.
Screen Actor's Guild announces: Jan. 27
Director's Guild announces: Feb. 2
British Academy (BAFTA) announces: Feb. 10
Writers Guild announces Feb. 17
OSCARS Feb. 24


More on Thursday...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

Oscar Matters/USC Scripter Noms/The Iceman Appears

OSCAR MATTERS...

Now that we know the nominees and The Golden Globes have crowned their choices for the best in film this year it's time to begin to think about what 
about what might actually happens on Oscar night.  Some of the experts that I regularly tap to focus on that question have 
Begun to weigh in.  Starting with The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg who has posted his latest forecast
As well as his weekly video report "A Few Minutes with Feinberg".  Both are posted below...


     FEINBERG: A FEW MINUTES WITH AND A NEW FORECAST


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/a-few-minutes-feinberg-are-412902

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-scotts-first-projections-411762

Meanwhile, The Huffington Post has weighed in with their first attempt at forecasting Oscar using their own, fairly 
Extensive metric and I have linked that here:


     HUFFPO METRIC WEIGHS IN


http://data.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/oscar-predictions#more


THE ICEMAN APPEARS


A film that was generally well received at this year's festival was Ariel Froman's "The Iceman". 
Now there's a trailer for the film which The Playlist has linked to here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-new-trailer-of-hitman-thriller-the-iceman-starring-michael-shannon-chris-evans-ray-liotta-more-20130115


USC SCRIPTER NOMINEES

The University of Southern California has announced the finalists for this year's "Scripter" award 
Which recognizes adapted screenplays only...and rewards both the screenwriters and the authors
of the original source material.  Variety posted the list of six...one more than usual as their vote for nominees
Included a tie for the first time.  The links to the Variety story is here: 

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118064656.html/?cmpid=RSSNewsFilmNews#.UPVXtNwgvaA.email


More on Monday...
Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.
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Golden Globes/Gurus/Oscar Matters/Theater News/This and That

GOLDEN GLOBE RESULTS

You have to wonder if The Golden Globes results ever have any effect on Oscar.  Personally, I'm dubious.  Here are last night's results and a breakdown and commentary below:

Best Song: Skyfall

Best Score: Life of Pi

Best Animated Feature: Brave

Best Foreign Language Film: Amour

Best Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz/Django Unchained

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy): Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables

Best Actress (Musical/comedy): Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook

Best Actor (Drama): Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln

Best Actress (Drama): Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty

Best Dirctor: Ben Affleck/Argo

Best Picture (Musical/Comedy): Les Miserables

Best Picture (Drama): Argo

“Argo’s” wins were the big surprise of the evening.  “Perceived Oscar f ront-runner “Lincoln” ended the night with a single trophy for Daniel Day Lewis.

“Les Mis” also had a good evening as did Tarantino’s “Django”.

The Cristoph Waltz win was a bit of a stunner.

And the expected wins for both Lawrence and Chastain keep that alive as the tightest Oscar race going with Emanuelle Riva still a player in that category as well.

Does it mean anything for Oscar?  Maybe, but likely only in the case of “Argo” which will need every boost it can get since it lacks a Best Director nomination from the Academy.

There is a notion going around that “Argo” may actually benefit from the Ben Affleck snub and pick up some votes for Best Picture as a way to atone for that oversight.

Globe breakdown:

Les Miz: 3, (Pset Pic (Music/Comedy), Best Actor (same)< Best Supporting Actress

Argo: 2, Best Picture (Drama), Best Director

Django Unchained; 2, Best Supporting Actor, Best Screenplay

 

All other films had but a single win.

Telluride #39: 3 Globes…2 for “Argo” and Best Foreign Language for “Amour”

GURUS OF GOLD

Movie City News' Gurus of Gold were surveyed after Oscar nominations were announced Thursday morning and those results have been posted:

http://moviecitynews.com/2013/01/gurus-o-gold-nominations-morning-page-1-of-2/

http://moviecitynews.com/2013/01/gurus-o-gold-nominations-morning-page-2-of-2/

Here's a partial list of what the Gurus of Gold are currently predicting for Oscar night...

Best Foreign Language Film: "Amour" is way out front.  "A Royal Affair" is a distant second.

Best Doc: "The Gatekeepers" has the lead with "Searching for Sugarman" within striking distance.

Best Animated Feature:  It's a close two way horse race between "Wreck It Ralph" and "Frankenweenie"

Best Adapted Screenplay: Tony Kushner/Lincoln is way out front.  David O. Russell/Silver Linings is a distant second.

Best Original Screenplay: Michael Haneke/Amour and Mark Boal/Zero Dark Thirty are very, very tight.

Best Supporting Actress:  Anne Hathaway/Les Mis is the gigantic favorite.  Sally Field/Lincoln is a distant second.

Best Supporting Actor:  Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln is way out in front with Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings and Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master bunched at second and third.

Best Actress: It's a three way free for all with Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings, Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty and Emanuelle Riva/Amour all closely bunched together.

Best Actor:  Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln is the overwhelming favorite.  None of the other nominees  really stands out as being in second place.

Best Direction:  Steven Spielberg/Lincoln is a very solid leader with Ang Lee/Life of Pi sitting at #2.

Best Picture:  "Lincoln" is the prohibitive choice among the Gurus.  "Silver Linings PLaybook" and "Life of PI" are now regarded as having the best (and not terribly good) shot at stopping the "Lincoln" juggernaut.

Use the above links to scope out 21 Oscar categories and where the Gurus have ranks each nominee.

If the Gurus are 100% accurate (as of this posting)  Oscar night would see the following results:

"Lincoln" wins 6 Oscars:  Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Score.

"Skyfall" wins 3: Song, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing (and this would create a cool trivia question in the future..."Which film won the second most Oscars at Oscar #85?")

"Amour" wins 2: Foreign Film and Original Screenplay

"Life of Pi" wins 2: Cinematography and Visual Effects

Anna Karenina wins 2: Production Design and Costumes

With one apiece: "Les Miserables", "Silver Linings Playbook", "Wreck It Ralph", "The Gatekeepers", "Zero Dark Thirty" and "The Hobbit".

"Argo" gets shut out.

TFF #39 films would account for 3 Oscars with the "Short" categories still outstanding and where TFF could still pick up a couple from "Paperman" or "Asad".



(OTHER) OSCAR MATTERS

     OSCAR TALK (Tapley and Thompson)

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-102-oscar-nominations-and-the-bfca-critics-choice-movie-awards

     OSCAR PODCAST FROM AWARDS DAILY

http://www.awardsdaily.com/oscarpodcast/2013/01/13/oscar-podcast-episode-16/

NEW THEATER NEWS



As I have been reporting since just days after the close of this year's Festival, The TFF organizers have been urging a creation of a new theater that would be ready for use for this year's (2013) 40th Anniversary Telluride Film Festival.  TFF had pledged $750,000 toward that end (the renovation of The Haney Pavilion in City Park).  The Telluride Town Council would still need to find the majority of the funding and also agree to that proposal.  Well, action was taken this past week...here's the story from The Telluride Daily Planet:

http://www.telluridenews.com/articles/2013/01/08/news/doc50ecb0b704dcc327758771.txt

Sounds like we'll have a new venue (and at 750 seats, the largest venue) for TFF #40 barring any problems.

THIS AND THAT (about TFF #39 Films)
   
     AMOUR

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/michael-hanekes-amour-joins-exclusive-club-of-palme-dor-winners-turned-best-picture-nominees

     NO

http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.315451121905502.75524.253140084803273&type=3&buffer_share=7bade&utm_source=buffer

     GINGER AND ROSA

http://www.firstshowing.net/2013/us-trailer-for-ginger-rosa-starring-elle-fanning-and-alice-englert/

     THE HUNT (Vinterberg with David Poland)

http://moviecitynews.com/2013/01/dp30-tiff-the-hunt-co-writerdirector-thomas-vinterberg/


More on Thursday...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

OSCAR BREAKDOWN

“Lincoln” led all films this morning with 12 nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound Mixing, Original Score, and Costume. (FAC had it at 12)



“Life of Pi” was next with 11: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Original Song, Original Score and Visual Effects. (FAC had it at 10)



“Silver Linings Playbook” had 8: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing. (FAC had it at 5 with 3 more “possible”)



“Les Miserables” had 8: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Production Design, Sound Mixing, Original Song, Costumes and Makeup and Hair. (FAC had it with 10)



“Argo” had 7: Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Film Editing, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. (FAC had it with 6 with 1 more “possible”)



“Amour” had 5: Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay and Foreign Language. (FAC had it with 4 with 2 more “possible”)



“Zero Dark Thirty” had 5: Picture, Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing and Sound Editing. (FAC had it with 8 and 2 more “possible”)



“Django Unchained” had 5: Picture, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography and Sound Editing. (FAC had it with 5)



“Skyfall” had 5: ( most without a Best Picture nomination)Cinematography, Original Score, Original Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing (FAC had it with 4)



“Beasts of the Southern Wild” had 4: Picture, Director, Actress and Adapted Screenplay. (FAC had it with 3 and 3 more “possible”)



“Anna Karenina” had 4: Cinematography, Original Score, Costume and Production Design (FAC had it with 3 with 3 more “possible”)





TELLURIDE AT 17



TFF #39 films totaled 17 nominations this morning.



“Argo” 7

“Amour” 5

And one each for “A Royal Affair”, “No”, The Gatekeepers”, “Paperman” and “Asad”. As expected since September, it’s the smallest number of Oscar nominations for a Telluride slate in a long while.



BIGGEST SURPRISES



No Directing nominations for either Ben Affleck (Argo) or Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) and Benh Zeitlin getting in for Director…huge. No Best Actor nomination for John Hawkes for “The Sessions” was also a surprise.



No Foreign Language nom for “The Intouchables” which had widely been considered the only film with a chance to challenge “Amour” in this category.



The strength of “Silver Linings Playbook” which is clearly the biggest challenge to “Lincoln” for Best Picture (not “Argo” which I had thought). SLP checked every box it needed to to be a serious Best Pic contender…Acting noms in all 4 categories, Directing, Screenplay and Film Editing noms). The Jacki Weaver nomination was a surprise to me but indicates the depth of support for the film.



I had 8 “diverging” hunches from what the FAC metric was saying…not one of them happened.

1) “The Master” gets a Best Pic nom after all…nope

2) Tarantino gets a Director’s nom…nope

3) McConaughey gets a Supporting Actor nom…nope

4) Chbosky gets nominated for Adapting “Perks of Being a Wallflower”…nope

5) “The Painitng/Le Tableau” gets an Animation nom…nope (and another pretty big surprise was the nomination for “Pirates: Band of Misfits”)

6) “Django” gets a Film Editing nom…nope

7) “The Master’s” Johnny Greenwood score gets nominated…nope

8) “Sister” gets a Foreign Language nom…nope



The best I could do on these “hunches” was targeting the films that the FAC metric was indicating as a nominee that ended up not being a nominee. I got that DiCaprio would miss in Supporting; that “Rise of the Guardians” would whiff in Animated Feature; that “Les Miz” would not be nominated for Editing; and that “Beasts’ would miss for Original Score. I just didn’t read the tea leaves correctly in these four cases about who/what would step into their places.
 
The other note is that in about half a dozen categories the person/film that the metric had at #6 eked out a nomination.


The FAC metric went 82/107 for a 77% accuracy rate. I guess my proudest accomplishment is the prediction that 9 films would be nominated for Best Pic and the top 9 on the metric were the nine nominated this morning.


Other categories the FAC performed well on: Adapted Screenplay (5 of 5) and Makeup/Hair (3 of 3). Worst category: Song, where the FAC was only 2 of 5.



FAC BREAKDOWN PER CATEGORY

Best Pic: 9/9.

Best Director: 2/5…the FAC had Russell at #7 and Haneke at #8. Zeitlin…not at all

Best Actress: 4/5…FAC had Wallis at #6…I personally cannot believe Cotillard was not nominated.

Best Actor: 4/5…FAC had Phoenix at #6

Supporting Actress: 4/5…FAC had Weaver at #10

Supporting Actor: 4/5…FAC had Waltz at #6

Adapted Script: 5/5

Original Script: 4/5…FAC had Gatins/Flight at #7

Animated Feature: 4/5…FAC didn’t have “Pirates” remotely close to a nomination.

Foreign Language Film: 4/5…FAC had “War Witch” at #7

Documentary: 4/5…FAC didn’t have “5 Broken Cameras” on its top 10.

Cinematography: 3/5…FAC had “Anna Karenina” at #7 and “Django” at #8

Film Editing: 4/5…FAC had “Silver Linings” at #8

Orignal Song 2/5…FAC was abysmal here. It had “Before My Time/Chasing Ice” at #9. The song from “Ted” was not in the FAC top 10.

Original Score: 4/5…FAC had “Skyfall” at #10

Production Design: 4/5…FAC had “The Hobbit” at #6

Costume: 4/5…FAC had “Snow White” at #6

Makeup: 3/3

Visual Effects: FAC had “Snow White” at #9

Sound Editing: 3/5…FAC had “Django” at #7 and “Argo” nowhere to be found.

Sound Mixing: 3/5…FAC had “Lincoln” at #8 and, again, “Argo” not in the top 10.