OSCAR PREDICTION FINAL

Well, thar she blows!  The Great White Whale that IS OSCAR beaches itself/is harpooned for all to see in about 8 hours...

Here's the skinny...for all 24 categories... (with some commentary along the way, because I can't help myself):

Live Action Short:  The most unpredictable category of the night...I'm going with Pentecost...chance that this prediction is correct 25%.

Animated Short:  Smart money says: The Fantastic Flying Books of Morris Lesmore.

Doc Short: Saving Face

Sound Mixing: Hugo

Sound Editing: Hugo

Visual Effects: The "experts" say Rise of the Planet of the Apes, I'm going with Hugo.

Doc Feature:  A semi-tight category.  My pick is Paradise Lost 3

Makeup: The Iron Lady

Costume: The Artist

Original Song: Man or Muppet from The Muppets

Original Score: The Artist

Art Direction: Hugo

Cinematography: The Tree of Life is my pick, although there is a good deal of sentiment for The Artist and Hugo

Editing: The Artist

Animated Feature: Rango

Foreign Language Film: A Separation

THE BIG EIGHT...

Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants (Another writing Oscar for Mrs. Patterson's Telluride buddy, Alexander Payne).

Original Screenplay:  Some dissension amongst the "experts" here.  Most say Midnight in Paris and I'm going with that but there is some sentiment that The Artist might pick this up as well.  Personally, I still think the best screenplay of the year is Asghar Farhadi's brilliant script for A Separation.

Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer/Beginners...if there IS a surprise, maybe Von Sydow.

Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer/The Help

Actor: Most of the "Oscarologists" are saying Jean Dujardin for The Artist.  I'm going with Clooney for The Descendants.

Actress: Viola Davis/The Help (though a Meryl Streep win wouldn't be all that big a surprise).

Director: Michel Hazanavicius/The Artist (Possible upset, and not a big one, Scorsese).

Picture: The Artist

My picks have The Artist winning 5 Oscar, Hugo 4, and The Descendants and The Help with 2 each.  These being the only films with multiple wins tonight.  The Artist could conceivably end the night with 7 or 8.  Winning all 10 that it's nominated for is unlikely.

If I'm right, Telluride's 38th edition will have produced films that win 8 Oscars tonight.

Still disappointed in no nominations for Fassbender/Mulligan/McQueen/Morgan for Shame !

Let's see what happens!

I plan to live tweet at least to some extent tonight so join me @Gort2 on Twitter.  Post mortem tomorrow!

Almost to the Finish Line

Good Morning

ALMOST TO THE FINISH LINE

Oscars are three days away and a slew of "final" predictions can be found.  Here's a look at some of them.

Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly:
http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/02/22/final-oscar-predictions-the-artist-dave-karger/

Brad Brevet at Rope of Silicon:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/final-2012-oscar-predictions/

Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscar-predictions-the-artist-academy-awards-292628

And a final post from The Movie City News Gurus of Gold:
http://moviecitynews.com/2012/02/gurus-o-gold-the-last-gasp/

I'll have what passes for my predictions up on Sunday and then we'll all find out on Sunday night.

CANNES

Cannes speculation has already begun and I'll be looking at it in the next couple of weeks as we transition away from awards season and into TFF #39 spec territory.  HitFix had an interesting post up yesterday about Cannes re-emergence as an Oscar bellwether.  Here that is:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/cannes-regains-its-oscar-foresight

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Movieline is up with a look at the Best Foreign Language Oscar nominees in which Telluride films figure prominently.  See it here:
http://www.movieline.com/2012/02/22/oscar-roundtable-meet-this-years-best-foreign-language-feature-nominees/

Later

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Critical Consensus/Berlin Films/Oscar Actors

Good Morning...

It's somebody's birthday today!

CRITICAL CONSENSUS

Another collation of critical response to this year's gaggle of films.  Take a look and you'll find: "Poetry" (from TFF #37), "The Artist", "The Descendants" "A Separation", "Shame", "We Need to Talk About Kevin" and "A Dangerous Method".

http://criticstop10.com/


BERLIN IS HAPPENING

The Berlin Film Festival is ongoing and though I do make a BIG DEAL about how much of a connection there is between Cannes and Telluride, Berlin is oftentimes the first film fest each year that features films that eventually are on the Telluride play list.  For example, take a look at last year's Berlin lineup via IndieWire:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/61st_berlinale_locks_down_full_2011_competition_programme#.TzJ1tHIjdCs.email

You'll see TFF #38 films "The Turin Horse", "A Separation" and "Pina". 

So you could almost certainly expect that this year's crop will also produce some films we will see Labor Day weekend.  Here's a link to the complete list of this year's Berlin films via IndieWire again:
http://www.indiewire.com/article/berlinale-2012-the-complete-competition-lineup#.TzJ2UzSkR1E.email


OSCAR ACTORS

As we get closer and closer to Oscar announcing its winners, we find that the Best Actor race is essentially expected to be a two man affair and both men were featured at this year's fest.  The battle is close between TFF #38 tributee George Clooney (The Descendants) and Jean Dujardin (The Artist).  Yahoo movies breaks down the category with their roundtable featuring a number of the people I like to link you to.  Here is the link to that roundtable discussion:
http://movies.yahoo.com/blogs/movie-talk/yahoo-best-actor-roundtable-george-clooney-brad-pitt-230928042.html

Later!

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

The Latest Oscar Line

Good Morning!

Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter has his latest Oscar predictions up this morning.  Take a look here:
http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20120124/PEOPLE/120129986

Telluride-centirc notes about Feinberg's predictions.  "The Artist" wins 5 (Including Picture, Director and Actor) and "The Descendants" and "A Separation" each win one.

Later!

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Sundance Post Mortem/A Separation/TFF #39?

Good Morning!

I'm back after a couple of days away at my regular job...

SUNDANCE POST MORTEM

Well, The Sundance Film Festival is done for 2012 and it has been fun posting the musings of Cinema Bebop's Gnat Lee.  There were three films (as I have said) that seemed to me to be most intriguing: "Beasts of the Southern Wild", "The Surrogate" and "The Words"  IndieWire has a post up with the critical response to the films and performances that played Sundance this year.  You can find that here:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/criticwire-ranks-top-sundance-films-and-performances

Interestingly, "Beasts" and "Surrogate" got a lot of critical attention.  "The Words" not so much.

A SEPARATION

Asghar Farhadi's "A Separation" continues its American roll out this week.  It was featured with two Chicago outlets.

The Tribune:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/entertainment/movies/ct-ae-0122-separation-20120119,0,3068696.column

And also Roger Ebert's blog:
http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20120124/PEOPLE/120129986

 AND LOOKING AHEAD

During the just completed Sundance Fest, IndieWire posted its list of most anticipated indie films for 2012, many of which played in Utah.  But the list also includes some serious Telluride #39 possibilities, so you might want to take a look.  I think of particular interest would be "The Door", "Foxfire", "A Late Quartet" and "Song for Marion".  I've already mentioned "Quartet" and "Marion" in an earlier post as TFF possibilities...

Later!

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

THE DAY BEFORE AND HERE ARE THE PREDICTIONS! Plus some other folks and news.

In 24 hours we will know the Oscar nominees in 24 categories and all the speculation and thrashing about that we've been doing for the last 5 months gets focused for the 4 and 1/2 week run to Oscar night on Feb. 26.

Here's what The Film Awards Clearinghouse metric says will happen tomorrow morning (and here and there a comment or two from yours truly).  Metrics data from: Awards Daily, Incontention, Thompson on Hollywood, Rope of Silicon, Awards Circuit, Entertainment Weekly, The Hollywood Reporter, Film Misery, The Film Experience and Hollywood Elsewhere.

As far as The Best short Documentary, Live action and Animation…not even going to try.  I do hope for nominations for La Luna and Luminaris.

SOUND MIXING: War Horse, Transformers, Tintin, Super 8, Apes.  Also with a good shot: Hugo.

SOUND EDITING: War Horse, Apes, Tintin, Transformers, Hugo.  Maybe Super 8 or Rango.

VISUAL EFFECTS: Apes, Potter, Hugo, Tree of Life, Hugo, Transformers. Also a decent shot for Capt. America, X Men, Super 8, Pirates 4 or Mission Impossible.

ORIGINAL SCORE: The Artist, Hugo, War Horse, Dragon Tattoo, Extremely Loud.  Also in play: Tintin, Moneyball and The Help.

ORIGINAL SONG: The Help, Albert Nobbs, The Muppets (Life is a Happy Song), The Muppets (Pictures in My Head), Capt. America.  Also with a decent shot: Gnomeo and Juliet, W.E., Machine Gun Preacher and The Muppets (Man or Muppet).

MAKEUP: The Iron Lady, Albert Nobbs, The Artist.  Also: Gainesborg, Potter, Hugo

COSTUME: Hugo, The Artist, Jane Eyre, Marilyn, The Help.  Also: Anonymous and W.E.

ART DIRECTION: Hugo, Artist, Potter, Tinker, War Horse.  Maybe: Dragon Tattoo, Anonymous, The Help, Tree of Life.

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Tree of Life, Hugo, War Horse, Artist, Dragon Tattoo.  Maybe: Drive, Potter, Tinker.

FILM EDITING: Artist, War Horse, Hugo, Dragon Tattoo, Moneyball.  Maybe: Drive, Descendants, Tree of Life

ANIMATED FEATURE: Rango, Puss in Boots, Tintin, Arthur Christmas, Kung Fu Panda 2.  Possibles: Cars 2, Rio.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Project Nim, Paradise Lost 3, Buck, We Were Here, Pina.  Also possible: If a Tree Falls, Bill Cunningham.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: A Separation, In Darkness, Footnote, Pina, Monsieur Lazhar. Any others…Bullhead, Superclassico, Omar Killed Me, Warriors of the Rainbow.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Midnight in Paris, The Artist, Bridesmaids, 50/50, Win Win.  Possibles: Young Adult, A Separation, Tree of Life

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Descendants, Moneyball, Hugo, The Help, War Horse.  [Note: I’ll bet War Horse is even in trouble in this category].  Others that could sneak in: Dragon Tattoo, Tinker, Ides of March

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christopher Plummer/Beginners, Albert Brooks/Drive, Kenneth Brannagh/My Week with Marilyn, Jonah Hill/Moneyball and Nick Nolte/Warrior.  Could be: Max Von Sydow/Extremely Loud, Patton Oswalt/Young Adult and there appears to be a late surge for Ben Kingsley in Hugo.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Octavia Spencer and Jessica Chastain both from The Help, Berenice Bejo/Artist, Melissa McCarthy/Bridesmaids and Shailene Woodley/Descendants. [Note: I actually think that this category is pretty tight.  I also really have a difficult time believing the Academy will actually nominate McCarthy]  Others; Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs, Vanessa Redgrave/Coriolanus and Carey Mulligan/Shame.

ACTOR: George Clooney/Descendants, Jean Dujardin/Artist, Brad Pitt/Moneyball, Michael Fassbender/Shame, Leonardo DiCaprio/J. Edgar. [Note: I flat out think that DiCaprio has faded completely and that opens the door for… Gary Oldman/Tinker or maybe Michael Shannon/Take Shelter or Demian Bichir/A Better Life]

ACTRESS: Viola Davis/The Help, Meryl Streep/Iron Lady, Michelle Williams/Marilyn, Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin, Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs.  Could sneak in: Rooney Mara/Dragon Tattoo or Charlize Theron/Young Adult.

DIRECTOR: Michel Hazanavicius/Artist, Alexander Payne/Descendants, Martin Scorsese/Hugo, Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris, Steven Spielberg/War Horse.  Again, I think the bloom is off the rose for Spielberg and this fifth spot will go either to David Fincher/Dragon Tattoo Terrence Malick/Tree of Life.

PICTURE: So much depends on whether there are 5 or 6 or 7 or 8…I’m going with seven and the metric says: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, The Help, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball and War Horse.  And I will flaunt the metric and say War Horse does NOT get in and either Dragon Tattoo or Tree of Life does.  


I still feel that the new rules favor a surprise BP nomination for Tree of Life tomorrow morning.  Those that love it, love it and it needs to get past that 250-300 first place vote threshold (out of nearly 6,000) to get a nomination...I think it's doable.  

Now bring on tomorrow morning’s announcement so we can start parsing the results and complaining!  I've got experts and industry insiders who tell me that they'll share their reactions and insights into tomorrow's announcement.  Lined up: a screenwriter, a director, a producer, an editor, a PR guy and a couple of film bloggers


OTHERS LAST SHOTS:


Final pre-Oscar predictions from Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-academy-award-nominations-hugo-artist-dragon-tattoo-283762

And also from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2012/01/2011predictions/

Greg Ellwood at HitFix.com:
http://www.hitfix.com/galleries/2012-oscar-nominations-predictions#1

Guy Lodge at Incontention.com:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/guy-lodge-predicts
THE ARTIST WINS PRODUCERS GUILD AWARD

The Artist continues to pile up the pew-Oscar awards winning the PGA award as Best FIlm on Saturday night.  Find the complete story at Hollywoodnews.Com:
http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2012/01/22/oscars-the-artist-takes-top-producers-guild-prize-analysis-awards-alley/

SUNDANCE UNDER WAY

And as promised MTFB/FAC has a man in transit.  Gant Lee will be on the ground in Park City this week and our plan is to post his Sundance coverage and impressions here...Check Gant's film blog CinemaBebop here:
http://cinemabebop.tumblr.com/post/16271538547/coming-up

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Sunday Extra to The FAC

Good Morning...down to under 48 hours until Oscar nominations are announced by The Academy.


CEASE THAT CORONATION!

This morning I have two pieces that suggest that there is still a reasonable level of suspense about what will ultimately win the Oscar next month (Feb. 26) for Best Picture.

First from The Playlist's Oli Lyttleton: 5 Reasons The Artist might not win best picture (in fairness, he strains to get to 5):
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-amazing-race-its-not-over-yet-five-reasons-the-artist-might-not-win-best-picture

And also from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily a rumination on the possibility that The Descendants could pull off the upset:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2012/01/the-descendants-poised-to-upset-in-best-picture/

MY TOP TEN FOR 2011

Well, after much weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth, here is my Top Ten list for the films that I saw in 2012 (somewhere north of 50...not "critic" type numbers...but a lot of films)...But admittedly, I haven't seen everything.  Haven't caught War Horse or Extremely Loud yet.  Nor critical darlings like Melancholia, Take Shelter or Martha Marcy Mae Marlene.  Someday, I'll get 'em in.

#10 HUGO (dir. by Martin Scorsese)... Scorsese steps into a completely different filmic milieu and succeeds very well.  It's a beautiful film to look at.  The 3D isn't a bother (as it so often is in most 3D films) and sounds one of the biggest themes from serious films this year...the nostalgic reverence for the history of film and its place in our lives.  (my runner -up #11 picture...Girl with the Dragon Tattoo).
Hugo's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0970179/

#9 ALBERT NOBBS (dir. by Rodrigo Garcia)  Glenn Close's passion project that took decades to get made was largely dismissed by most critics, but I contend that her performance as a woman masquerading as a mild mannered MAN and Janet McTeer's supporting performance are enough to put it on my list.  I think that a number of critics just didn't get how difficult it is to do what Close does in this film.  Probably headed to 3-4 Oscar nominations.
Albert Nobbs' IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1602098/
Check out my actually published Albert Nobbs review from Telluirde for The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_albert_nobbs_glenn_close_mia_wasikowska

#8 RANGO (dir. Gore Verbinski)  I'm also a bit surprised that this hasn't gotten more critical love at the end of the year.  It also hasn't benefited from what has been a yearly "Will The Academy nominate an animated film for Best Picture?" push.  This despite the fact that it is a clear front runner to win the Oscar for Animated Feature.  Nonetheless, it's funny, quirky, and inventive.
Rango's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1192628/

#7 BEGINNERS (dir. Mike Mills)  Christopher Plummer is headed to an Oscar nomination (and probable win) as Supporting Actor as a widower who finally comes out in his 70's and Ewan MacGregor plays the son dealing with the new circumstances.  It's a beautiful, touching funny and very human film from Mills.  It would be nice to see him get an Original Screenplay nomination as well and it could happen; it's not very likely, though.
Beginners' IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1532503/

#6 MONEYBALL (dir. Bennett Miller)  A top flight job from all involved.  Steve Zallian and Aaron Sorkin's adaptation is brilliantly done.  Miller directs with confidence (I am fast getting to the point where I'll go see a film just because he's the director) and Brad Pitt is more than fine as Billy Beane.  And the surprise is how good Jonah Hill is.  Probable Oscar nods to Zallian, Sorkin, Pitt and Hill.  Miller's odds for a directing nomination are fairly long, though.
Moneyball's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1210166/

#5  A SEPARATION (dir. Asghar Farhadi)  A miracle of a film from Iran.  I contend that this is the best written film of any type this year.  Almost certain to be a Best Foreign Language Film nominee (and the likely winner), I've been advocating n Original Screenplay nomination for months...not likely, but it's also not impossible.  And here's the thing...it's Iranian...I saw it with subtitles and it still translated to great writing...do you have any idea how difficult that is?  Steady direction and great committed performances also.  Talk about your films that transcend boundaries...
A Separation's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1832382/

#4 THE DESCENDANTS (dir. Alexander Payne)  A nice return from Mr. Payne who had been away from directing for 7 years.  George Clooney stars as a man with family issues.  He's probably going to win his second Oscar for this and perhaps he should, it's one of his best turns on screen.  Good support up and down the cast as well with relative newcomer Shailene Woodley a very possible nominee for Supporting Actress.  This will probably net 4-7 nominations Tuesday morning.  Check my Playlist review from Telluride for further details here: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/alexander_payne_george_clooney_riff_on_family_love_loss_death_and_the_choic#
The Descendants IMDb page is here: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1033575/

#3 THE TREE OF LIFE (dir.Terrence Malick)  No one tried anything bigger, bolder and more adventurous this year than Terrence Malick.  So many people have said, "what's it about?"...best answer  "Life" sort as the title implies.  Malick juxtaposes macro and micro versions of "life" with each illuminating the other.  Brad Pitt is very good as a domineering 50's era father.  it also helps that the film is incredibly beautifully shot and that Malick (clearly drawing from his own experiences as a young boy in Texas and Oklahoma) gets the look and tone of the place and time of the micro story just right.  This film and my #1 are the two films that I saw this year that kept returning to me mind to turn over again and again.
The Tree of Life's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0478304/

#2 THE ARTIST (dir. Michel Hazanavicius)  I was intrigued from the moment I heard the premise and started to hear the reactions and descriptions out of Cannes.  Firstly, how bold do you have to be to pitch a black and white silent film in the 2000's???  Pretty bold.  And then the execution!  And it works so so well.  Hazanavicius' vision is beautifully realized especially from Jean Dujardin in the lead.  To my mind, 75 years removed from the days when this was the ONLY way films were done, this was like re-inventing the form from scratch.  Remarkably well done.  The Artist will likely be in double digit nominations (and it may be the only film to get there this year, though Hugo has a real chance as well) on Tuesday morning and deservedly so.
The Artist's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1655442/

#1 SHAME (dir. Steve McQueen).  Yeah, I know.  It's NC-17.  And a lot of people do NOT like it, love it, care for it.  Many actively hate it.  It was certainly not universally embraced at Telluride.  But, I'm telling you, this film stuck with me all fall.  Shattering, searing, unflinching.  And the performances from Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan are phenomenal.  Fassy will probably get the only nomination here and he'd be winning the Best Actor Oscar if I had a ballot.  Mulligan would also be at the top of my Supporting Actress ballot, but she appears to have only a marginal chance of being one of the five nominees on Tuesday.  I'd also include McQueen and Abi Morgan for screenplay.  Perhaps McQueen for direction and likely cinematography as well.
Shame's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1723811/

What are your Ten Best of 2011??

Coming tomorrow...Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Award Clearinghouse predicts the Oscar nominations!

Follow me on Twitter  @Gort2

Brief Extra to MTFB/FAC

The Film Awards Clearinghouse will be up on Monday morning with a complete final rundown of Oscar nominee probabilities 24 hours before their announcement on Tuesday morning (Jan. 24).

Here are three quick hits to Telluride #38 related Oscar potentials:

A SEPARATION

Anne Thompson interviews writer/director Asghar Farhadi:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/farhadi-talks-iranian-oscar-entry-a-separation-divorce-drama-questions-irans-future#

SHAME

NPR talks to Michael Fassbender:
http://www.npr.org/2012/01/18/145390854/michael-fassbender-portraying-an-addicts-shame

INTO THE ABYSS

The Playlist talks to Werner Herzog:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/werner-herzogs-doc-into-the-abyss-spawns-discovery-series-on-death-row

I'll brief posts also on Saturday and Sunday leading up to Monday's regular bi-weekly post and Oscar nomination predictions.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Closing in on Oscar

CLOSING IN ON OSCAR

We're down to the point where we could start counting down to next Tuesday's nomination announcement in hours rather than days.  The last 24 hours have seen a couple of key developments.  First, the announcement from The Academy yesterday of the nine foreign films still left to compete for the five nominations in that category and ultimately the Oscar.  Any number of the websites listed in the right hand column carried stories about that announcement.  I have linked to the Awards Daily story here:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2012/01/9-foreign-language-films-vie-for-oscar/

Four Telluride films have made the "semi-finals" A Separation, Pina, In Darkness and Footnote.  Not making the list, in something of a surprise, Le Havre.  So the dream of an all Telluride list of five films has ended, though the four that are left are all pretty legitimate players to be announced on Tuesday morning.  As a matter of fact, my final prediction on Monday will be the four T-ride films plus Canada's Monsieur Lazhar.

The other developing story is a slight rumbling/backlash against The Artist because, the thinking goes, general audiences may not be as enamored of the uniqueness of a black and white silent film in 2012.  we'll see pretty soon if the theory has any legs.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS

The latest Oscar prognostications from three really good sources:

Movie City News' latest Gurus of Gold chart:
http://moviecitynews.com/2012/01/gurus-o-gold-post-globespre-oscar-nominations/

Dave Karger's "Final" pre-Oscar nomination predictions:
http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/01/17/oscar-predictions-dave-karger/

And the latest update from The Hollywood Reporter's resident Oscar guru Scott Feinberg:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/golden-globes-oscar-nominees-scott-feinberg-awards-season-279829

Of course, The Film Awards Clearinghouse will be up on Monday morning with my look at where the nominations will go and where we might see some surprises  (War Horse fading, Tattoo on the rise...)


FASSBENDER ON PARADE

Michael Fassbender has been and continues to be red hot and I am modestly confident that he will hear his name next Tuesday morning when the Best Actor nominees are announced.  He's featured this week on the cover of The Hollywood Reporter and THR has a couple of online articles in conjunction with that.  You can find those here:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/michael-fassbender-shirtless-full-frontal-nudity-shame-x-men-george-clooney-282871

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/THR-cover-michael-fassbender-shame-nudity-dangerous-method-282859


AND FINALLY

Two fun and interesting spec pieces about some of the far fetched things that could (but probably won't) happen on Tuesday morning.

From Kris Tapley of Incontention:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/off-the-carpet-as-the-music-stops-fringe-hopefuls-cross-their-fingers

And also from Steve Pond at The Wrap
http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/10-oscar-shocks-could-probably-wont-happen-34362

I'll have some other tidbits for you tomorrow.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

BAFTA/Feinberg Forecast Update/Oscar Effects Categories

BRITS NOMINATE

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their nominees early Monday morning (Central Daylight Time).  Here they are with Telluride highlighted as usual (thanks to Dave Karger and entertainment Weekly).

Best Film
The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
The Help
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Film Not in the English Language
Incendies (tff 37)
Pina
Potiche
A Separation
The Skin I Live In

Outstanding British Film
My Week with Marilyn
Senna
Shame
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
We Need to Talk About Kevin

Director
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Tomas Alfredson, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Lynne Ramsay, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Leading Actor
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame

Leading Actress
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Viola Davis, The Help

Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Ides of March

Supporting Actress 
Carey Mulligan, Drive
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Judi Dench, My Week with Marilyn
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer, The Help

Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
The Guard
The Iron Lady
Midnight in Paris

Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Help
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Editing
The Artist
Drive
Hugo
Senna
Tinker Tailor Solider Spy

Production Design
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Make Up & Hair
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
Hugo
The Iron Lady
My Week with Marilyn

Costume Design
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
My Week with Marilyn
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Special Visual Effects
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
War Horse

Documentary
George Harrison: Living in the Material World
Project Nim
Senna

Sound
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Original Music
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

Animated Film
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Arthur Christmas
Rango

Outstanding British Debut by a Director or Producer
Joe Cornish, Attack the Block
Will Sharpe, Tom Kingsley, Sarah Brocklehurst, Black Pond
Ralph Fiennes, Coriolanus
Richard Ayouade, Submarine
Paddy Considine & Diarmid Scrimshaw, Tyrannosaur

Comment:  BAFTA ends up citing Telluride-centric films 24 times:

The Artist- 12

The Descendants- 3

We Need to Talk About Kevin- 3

Shame- 2

George Harrison, Incendies, Pina and A Separation – 1 each

BAFTA is interesting from Oscar’s perspective because there is a modestly significant overlap of membership between it and The Academy.

FEINBERG’S NEW FORECAST

Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter has his latest assessment of Oscar prospects up and it reflects his view in a post Golden Globes environment.  Biggest change…he has Ben Kingsley solidly in the Best Supporting Actor category for Hugo.  Check it here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/golden-globes-oscar-nominees-scott-feinberg-awards-season-279829

THE FAC AND SOUND AND VISUAL EFFECTS

Three very technical categories and where they stand according to a compilation of data from: Awards Daily, Incontention, The Hollywood Reporter, Film Misery, Film Experience,

Awards Circuit, and Rope of Silicon…

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Rise of the Planet of the Apes

2) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

3) Hugo

4) The Tree of Life

5) Transformers

Also in play:

6) Pirates 4

7) Captain America

8) X-Men First Class

9) Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

10) Super 8

Others: Real Steal, Thor, Cowboys and Aliens

SOUND EDITING

1) War Horse

2) Rise of the Planet of the Apes

3) Tintin

4) Transformers

5) Hugo

Also in play:

6) Super 8

7) Rango

8) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

9)  Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

10) Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

SOUND MIXING

1) War Horse

2) Transformers

3) Tintin

4) Super 8

5) Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Also in play:

6) Hugo

7) Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

8) Rango

9) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

10) Captain America 

Check back tomorrow.

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