MTFB Oscar Take: Winner Prediction Updates for Docs, Animated and International Feature and More / SAG Awards Announced / The Lost Daughter Wins USC Scripter

I have updated Oscar predictions for winners in these six categories today.  TFF #48 Films are Bold.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Summer of Soul

2) Flee

3) Attica

4) Ascension

5) Writing with Fire

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Encanto

2) The Mitchells vs. the Machines

3) Flee

4) Luca

5) Raya and the Last Dragon

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Drive My Car

2) The Worst Person in the World

3) The Hand of God

4) Flee

5) Luana: A Yak in the Classroom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Dune

3) The Tragedy of Macbeth

4) Nightmare Alley

5) West Side Story

BEST EDITING

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) King Richard

4) Don't Look Up

5) tick, tick...BOOM

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Dune

2) Nightmare Alley

3) West Side Story

4) The Power of the Dog

5) The Tragedy of Macbeth

A couple of quivers of movement since these categories were last updated on Feb. 17th.  Flee and Luca swap spots in Best Animated Feature as do King Richard and Don't Look Up for Editing.

The current predictions for the other 14 feature categories at the moment are:

BEST PICTURE

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Belfast

3) West Side Story

4) King Richard

5) Dune

6) Licorice Pizza

7) CODA

8) Don't Look Up

9) Drive My Car

10) Nightmare Alley

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

4) Licorice Pizza/Paul Thomas Anderson

5) Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car

BEST ACTRESS

1) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

2) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

3) Kristen Stewart/Spencer

4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

5) Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos

1) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

3) Aujanue Ellis/King Richard

4) Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter

5) Judi Dench/Belfast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

2) Troy Kotsur/CODA

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Jesse Plemons/The Power of the Dog

5) J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast

2) Licorice Pizza

3) Don't Look Up

4) King Richard

5) The Worst Person in the World

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) CODA

3) The Lost Daughter

4) Drive My Car

5) Dune

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Don't Look Up

4) Encanto

5) Parallel Mothers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) No Time to Die/No Time to Die

2) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto

3) Be Alive/King Richard

4) Down to Joy/Belfast

5) Somehow You Do/Four Good Days

BEST COSTUMES

1) Cruella

2) Dune

3) Nightmare Alley

4) West Side Story

5) Cyrano

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune

2) Spiderman: No Way Home

3) No Time to Die

4) Shang Chi

5) Free Guy

BEST SOUND

1) Dune

2) West Side Story

3) Not Time to Die

4) The Power of the Dog

5) Belfast

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Dune

2) Cruella

3) The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4) The House of Gucci

5) Coming 2 America

SAG AWARDS ANNOUNCED

Last night was a good night for Sundance breakout CODA and not so great a night for TFF #48 films at the SAG Awards.  CODA won Best Cast and Troy Kotsur won Best Supporting Actor for his role as the deaf father of a hearing child.

TFF #48 films only scored one win and that was an expected victory for Will Smith as Best Actor for King Richard.

Other winners were:

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

The wins for Smith and DeBose solidify their status as Oscar frontrunners.  Kotsur's win certainly improves his chances in a Oscar race that seems, or at least seemed, to be close between him and The Power of the Dog's Kodi Smit-McPhee.  And does Chastain's win mean that she's now the person to beat in a crazy and divided Best Actress Oscar field?

The Dog went 0 for 3 last night with Smit-McPhee, Benedict Cumberbatch and Kirsten Dunst all coming up short. Belfast was 0 for 2 with Caitriona Balfe dropping in Supporting Actress and the film missing for Best Cast.  King Richard also missed for Best Cast as well as for Aujanue Ellis as Supporting Actress.  The final miss for TFF #48 performers was Olivia Colman from The Lost Daughter for Best Actress.

Full coverage is linked here from CNN.

THE LOST DAUGHTER WINS THE USC SCRIPTER

The USC Scripter Award is annually presented to the Best Adapted Screenplay in the eyes of the Scripter's awards voters.  Most thought that Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog was the likely winner here but voters opted for a different TFF #48 film honoring Maggie Gyllenhaal and the script for The Lost Daughter.  The USC Scripter Award also recognizes the writer(s) of the original source material being adapted.  That included author Elena Ferrante who wrote the novel that the film is based on.

Dopesick won the award for adapted television writing.

Other screenplays nominated included Passing, Dune and The Tragedy of Macbeth.

Full details are here from Variety.

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MTFB'S Oscar Take: Updating the Big Eight / Indiewire's Critics Poll for 2021 / Interviews and Profiles: Joe Wright

MTFB'S OSCAR TAKE: UPDATING THE BIG EIGHT

With little more than a month to go until Oscar night, March 7th, here is an update on the eight major above the line categories with winners predictions.  As always TFF #48 films and performers are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Belfast

3) West Side Story

4) King Richard

5) Dune

6) Licorice Pizza

7) CODA

8) Don't Look Up

9) Drive My Car

10) Nightmare Alley

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

4) Licorice Pizza/Paul Thomas Anderson

5) Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car

BEST ACTRESS

1) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

2) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

3) Kristen Stewart/Spencer

4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

5) Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos

1) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

3) Aujanue Ellis/King Richard

4) Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter

5) Judi Dench/Belfast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

2) Troy Kotsur/CODA

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Jesse Plemons/The Power of the Dog

5) J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast

2) Licorice Pizza

3) Don't Look Up

4) King Richard

5) The Worst Person in the World

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) CODA

3) The Lost Daughter

4) Drive My Car

5) Dune

THE MOST RECENT PREDICTIONS FOR THE OTHER CATEGORIES

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Summer of Soul

2) Flee

3) Attica

4) Ascension

5) Writing with Fire

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Encanto

2) The Mitchells vs. the Machines

3) Luca

4) Flee

5) Raya and the Last Dragon

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Drive My Car

2) The Worst Person in the World

3) The Hand of God

4) Flee

5) Luana: A Yak in the Classroom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Dune

3) The Tragedy of Macbeth

4) Nightmare Alley

5) West Side Story

BEST EDITING

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Don't Look Up

4) King Richard

5) tick, tick...BOOM

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Dune

2) Nightmare Alley

3) West Side Story

4) The Power of the Dog

5) The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Don't Look Up

4) Encanto

5) Parallel Mothers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) No Time to Die/No Time to Die

2) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto

3) Be Alive/King Richard

4) Down to Joy/Belfast

5) Somehow You Do/Four Good Days

BEST COSTUMES

1) Cruella

2) Dune

3) Nightmare Alley

4) West Side Story

5) Cyrano

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune

2) Spiderman: No Way Home

3) No Time to Die

4) Shang Chi

5) Free Guy

BEST SOUND

1) Dune

2) West Side Story

3) Not Time to Die

4) The Power of the Dog

5) Belfast

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Dune

2) Cruella

3) The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4) The House of Gucci

5) Coming 2 America

INDIEWIRE'S CRITICS POLL FOR 2021

Indiewire polled 187critics asking them what the best films were for 2021.  They posted those results with a Top 50 list earlier this week.  TFF #48 films did well.  Very well.  Here's the rundown of where films from The SHOW ended up on the list:

#49 King Richard

#44 Cyrano

#38 The Card Counter

#37 Spencer

#32 Red Rocket

#31 The Velvet Underground

#23 A Hero

#22 Bergman Island

#21 Belfast

#16 The Lost Daughter

#10 C'mon C'mon

#8 Petite Maman

#7 Flee

#6 The French Dispatch

#1 The Power of the Dog

The complete list from Indiewire is linked here.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Joe Wright/Cyrano The Film Stage's The B-side

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MTFB Predicts the Oscar Winners in Six More Categories / Cannes Speculation Starts / Interviews and Profiles: Branagh and Hinds

MTFB PREDICTS THE OSCAR WINNERS IN SIX MORE CATEGORIES

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Don't Look Up

4) Encanto

5) Parallel Mothers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) No Time to Die/No Time to Die

2) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto

3) Be Alive/King Richard

4) Down to Joy/Belfast

5) Somehow You Do/Four Good Days

BEST COSTUMES

1) Cruella

2) Dune

3) Nightmare Alley

4) West Side Story

5) Cyrano

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune

2) Spiderman: No Way Home

3) No Time to Die

4) Shang Chi

5) Free Guy

BEST SOUND

1) Dune

2) West Side Story

3) Not Time to Die

4) The Power of the Dog

5) Belfast

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Dune

2) Cruella

3) The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4) The House of Gucci

5) Coming 2 America

Through the 20 predicted feature film categories I have TFF #48 films winning the following:

The Power of the Dog-Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography.  It is competitive also for Supporting Actress, Editing and Score.

Belfast-Original Screenplay.  Belfast is also competitive for Picture and Director.

King Richard- Actor

If my predictions are perfect then Dune will win Editing, Production Design, Score, Visual Effects, Makeup/Hair and Sound for a total of six wins.  Dune is also competitive for Cinematography and Costumes.

So the race for what films wins the most Oscars on March 27th boils down to a close tussle between The Power of the Dog and Dune.  Cinematography and Editing might be the determining categories.

Here are the predictions from the previous two posts of the 14 other Oscar categories:

BEST PICTURE

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Belfast

3) West Side Story

4) King Richard

5) Licorice Pizza

6)  CODA

7) Dune

8) Don't Look Up

9) Drive My Car

10) Nightmare Alley

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

4) Paul Thomas Anderson/Licorice Pizza

5) Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos

BEST ACTRESS

1) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

2) Kristen Stewart/Spencer

3) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

5) Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

3) Aunjanue Ellis/King Richard

4) Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter

5) Judi Dench/Belfast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

2) Troy Kotsur/CODA

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Jesse Plemoms/The Power of the Dog

5) J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast

2) Licorice Pizza

3) Don't Look Up

4) King Richard

5) The Worst Person in the World

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) CODA

3) The Lost Daughter

4) Drive My CarInterviews and Pro

5) Dune

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Summer of Soul

2) Flee

3) Attica

4) Ascension

5) Writing with Fire

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Encanto

2) The Mitchells vs. the Machines

3) Luca

4) Flee

5) Raya and the Last Dragon

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Drive My Car

2) The Worst Person in the World

3) The Hand of God

4) Flee

5) Luana: A Yak in the Classroom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Dune

3) The Tragedy of Macbeth

4) Nightmare Alley

5) West Side Story

BEST EDITING

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Don't Look Up

4) King Richard

5) tick, tick...BOOM

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Dune

2) Nightmare Alley

3) West Side Story

4) The Power of the Dog

5) The Tragedy of Macbeth

CANNES SPECULATION STARTS

Oscar nominations are out, the Sundance and Berlin Fests are over and it's time to start thinking about what films might play Cannes and which of those might be crossover films that could be selected for TFF #49.

The Hollywood Reporter's Alex Ritman offers up 20 possibilities in the post from today that I have linked here.

Of the 20 films listed, the titles and directors that stand out to me a possibilities for The SHOW sight unseen are:

She Said/Maria Schrader dist: Universal

Crimes of the Future/David Cronenberg dist: Neon

The Son/Florian Zeller dist: Sony Pictures Classics

Showing Up/Kelly Reichardt dist: A24

Asteroid City/Wes Andrson dist: N/A

Bardo/Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu dist: N/A

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Kenneth Branagh on IFTA Screen discussions:

Ciaran Hinds with The Los Angeles Times

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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MTFB Predicts More Oscar Winners / For Those Who Have Been Asking... / Interviews and Profiles: Arnold and Smit-McPhee

MTFB PREDICTS MORE OSCAR WINNERS

I started predicting the winners of all of the Oscar feature film categories last Monday with prognostications in the Big Eight categories.  Today I continue with a half dozen additional categories.  As always, TFF #48 films/performers are in Bold.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Summer of Soul

2) Flee

3) Attica

4) Ascension

5) Writing with Fire

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Encanto

2) The Mitchells vs. the Machines

3) Luca

4) Flee

5) Raya and the Last Dragon

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Drive My Car

2) The Worst Person in the World

3) The Hand of God

4) Flee

5) Luana: A Yak in the Classroom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Dune

3) The Tragedy of Macbeth

4) Nightmare Alley

5) West Side Story

BEST EDITING

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Don't Look Up

4) King Richard

5) tick, tick...BOOM

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Dune

2) Nightmare Alley

3) West Side Story

4) The Power of the Dog

5) The Tragedy of Macbeth

Comment: Probably the best chance of a TFF #48 film picking up a win in these categories is for the Score for The Power of the Dog.  Outside shot for flee as Best Documentary Feature.

Through 14 predicted categories I have TFF #48 films winning the following:

The Power of the Dog-Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography

Belfast-Original Screenplay

King Richard- Actor

I'll have predictions for the remaining six feature film categories ( Score, Song, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Visual Effects and Sound) up in Monday's post and keep up with all my current predictions on the MTFB Oscar Take page.

FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN ASKING

The answer is officially up on the TFF website.  Several readers have asked over the past month or so about information regarding pass sales.  My standard response has been that I knew of no information and was assuming that passes would go on sale on March 1st as they have for the past several years.  That expectation proved out at some point recently as the fest posted the following on its "Purchasing Passes" page:

Though on time for the pass sale to start is listed, I expect that we will see that from the fest sometime within the next few days.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Andrea Arnold on Cow with mubi.com

Kodi Smit-McPhee on The Power of the Dog with Awards Daily

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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The First MTFB Oscar Winners Take / Interviews and Profiles: The Power of the Dog and Cyrano

THE FIRST MTFB OSCAR WINNERS TAKE

The Oscar ceremony will be March 27th and now that we know the nominees, here's my first run at predicting the winners  I'm starting off with the Big Eight categories and will continue to add and update categories as we move through these next six weeks.  As always, TFF #48 films/performers are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Belfast

3) West Side Story

4) King Richard

5) Licorice Pizza

6)  CODA

7) Dune

8) Don't Look Up

9) Drive My Car

10) Nightmare Alley

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

4) Paul Thomas Anderson/Licorice Pizza

5) Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos

BEST ACTRESS

1) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

2) Kristen Stewart/Spencer

3) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

5) Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

3) Aunjanue Ellis/King Richard

4) Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter

5) Judi Dench/Belfast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

2) Troy Kotsur/CODA

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Jesse Plemoms/The Power of the Dog

5) J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast

2) Licorice Pizza

3) Don't Look Up

4) King Richard

5) The Worst Person in the World

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) CODA

3) The Lost Daughter

4) Drive My CarInterviews and Pro

5) Dune

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

THE POWER OF THE DOG

Jane Campion/Indiewire

Kirsten Dunst/Awardist-Entertainment Weekly

Kodi Smit-McPhee/Awards Watch

CYRANO

The cast and crew of Cyrano in the Variety Streaming Room

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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MTFB Oscar Thoughts / So, You Want to Predict Best Picture?

MTFB OSCAR THOUGHTS

Well, the Oscar nominations are out and now we make the turn into the final leg of the Oscar race with the awards ceremony scheduled on March 27th.

Here's the rundown of the results of Tuesday morning's announcement in as far as Telluride films were concerned:

The Power of the Dog...WOOF!  12 nominations: Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, 2 Supporting Actors, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score and Sound.

Belfast 7 nominations: Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress (Dench not Balfe?), Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Song and Sound.

King Richard 6 nominations: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing  and Song.

Flee 3 nominations: International Film, Documentary Film, Animated Film

The Lost Daughter 3 nominations: Actress, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay

Single nominations for:

Spencer: Actress

The Hand of God: International Film

Cyrano: Costumes

Lead Me Home: Documentary Short

TFF #48 totals 35 nominations with nine films being mentioned.  Noticeably missing nominations from the TFF #48 crop were Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch, Mike Mills C'mon C'mon, Asghar Farhadi's A Hero, the documentaries The Rescue, The Velvet Underground and Procession.

 Where did TFF #48 Best Picture nominees end up last fall on the MTFB set of polls: The Professionals, The People and The Composite?

The Power of the Dog: Pros #2 ($.32), People: #1 (4.63) and the Composite: #1 (8.95)

Belfast: Pros #3 (4.30), People: #4 (4.12), Composite #2 (8.42)

King Richard: Pros #7 (3.92), People #5 (4.06), Composite #5 (7.98)

Going forward you have to think that The Power of the Dog is sitting pretty.  The field leading 12 nominations reveals strength throughout the Academy.  The actors branch, the largest in the Academy, favored the film with four acting nominations (Cumberbatch, Dunst, Smit-McPhee and perhaps most indicative of its popularity, Jesse Plemons.  The Jane Campion film could end up with the biggest haul of trophies for an Oscar Best Picture winner in years with Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor seeming very likely and awards for Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography,  Editing and Original Score not at all out of the question.  Other "below the line" nominations for Production Design and Sound could turn into wins but seem less likely.

My early thoughts as to who gets a trophy on Oscar night in the Big Eight categories:

Picture: The Dog

Director: Campion/The Dog

Actress: Who knows?  Say Kidman for the moment for Being the Ricardos

Actor: I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict Cumberbatch rather than Will Smith for King Richard...at least for now.

Supporting Actress: DeBose/West Side Story

Supporting Actor: Smit McPhee/The Dog

Original Screenplay: Belfast

Adapted Screenplay: The Dog

Nominations I liked: Kotsur, Hinds and Nightmare Alley

Non-noms I did not like: Balfe

Surprises Dench in, Villenueve out, Gaga out.

I go 87/120  in my nomination predictions for 72.5%.  Lowest in a few years.  

In the "Close but no cigar" Department, films/performers that got nominated that I had in the "first one out" position included: Nightmare Alley in Best Picture, Hamagughi for Director with Drive My Car, Stewart for Actress with Spencer, Bardem for Actor with Being the Ricardos, Dune for Adapted Screenplay, Attica in Documentary, West Side Story in Cinematography, The Tragedy of Macbeth in Production Design, Parallel Mothers in Original Score, Cyrano in Costumes and Ali Kachuu: Take and Run in Live Action Short.  11 of the 23 categories.

SO, YOU WANT TO PREDICT BEST PICTURE?

Here's what you need to know to predict the Best Picture Oscar.  Check out the Telluride Film Festival lineup each year and then pick the film that sits atop the MTFB Composite ranking/ratings after the festival.  Why?  Because every Best Picture winner since 2012 (except, of course,  Green Book which didn't play Telluride) has been those two criteria.

2012- Argo

2013- 12 Years a Slave

2014- Birdman

2015- Spotlight

2016- Moonlight

2017- The Shape of Water

2018- well, you know, Green Book... but the MTFB Composite winner that year was Roma

2019 - Parasite

2020- Nomadland (no Composite for this fest)

So, do you remember what landed at the #1 spot on my Composite in September?  If you said The Power of the Dog...you win a cookie (a metaphorical cookie).  

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2022 Oscar Nominations Revealed

 2022 OSCAR NOMINATIONS

TFF #48 films/performers are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE 

Belfast

CODA

Don't Look Up

Drive My Car

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

BEST DIRECTION

Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

Paul Thomas Anderson/Licorice Pizza

Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

Ryusuke Hamagughi/Drive My Car

BEST ACTRESS

Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers

Kristen Stewart/Spencer

BEST ACTOR 

Will Smith/King Richard

Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

Judi Dench/Belfast

Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis/King Richard

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

Troy Kotsur/CODA

Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

Jesse Plemons/The Power of the Dog

J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

Belfast 

Don't Look Up 

King Richard 

Licorice Pizza 

The Worst Person in the World

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

CODA 

Dune

Drive My Car 

Power of the Dog 

The Lost Daughter

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE 

Drive My Car/Japan 

Flee/Denmark 

The Hand of God/Italy 

Luana: A Yak in the Classroom/Bhutan

The Worst Person in the World/Norway 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE 

Encanto 

Flee 

Luca 

The Mitchells vs. the Machines 

Raya and the Last Dragon 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Ascension

Attica

Flee

Writing with Fire

Summer of Soul

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

BEST EDITING

Don't Look Up

Dune

King Richard

The Power of the Dog

tick, tick...BOOM

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 

Dune 

Nightmare Alley 

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of MacBeth

West Side Story

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 

Don't Look Up

Dune 

Encanto 

Parallel Mothers 

The Power of the Dog 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG 

Be Alive/King Richard 

Dos Oruguitas/Encanto 

Down to Joy/Belfast 

Somehow You Do/Four Good Days

No Time to Die/No Time to Die 

BEST COSTUMES 

Cyrano

Cruella

Dune 

Nightmare Alley 

West Side Story 

VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune 

Free Guy 

No Time to Die 

Shang Chi and The Legend of the Ten Rings 

Spiderman: No Way Home 

SOUND

Belfast

Dune 

No Time to Die 

The Power of the Dog  

West Side Story

MAKEUP/HAIR

Coming 2 America  

Cruella 

Dune 

The Eyes of Tammy Faye 

House of Gucci 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Audible

Lead Me Home

The Queen of Basketball

Three Songs for Benazir

When We Were Bullies

ANIMATED SHORT

Affairs of the Art

Boxballet

Bestia

Robin Robin

The Windshield Wiper

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Ala Kachuu: Take and Run

The Dress

The Long Goodbye

On My Mind

Please Hold

COMMENTS:

TFF #48

The Power of the Dog...WOOF!  12 nominations: Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, 2 Supporting Actors, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score and Sound.

Belfast 7 nominations: Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress (Dench not Balfe?), Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Song and Sound.

King Richard 6 nominations: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing  and Song.

Flee 3 nominations: International Film, Documentary Film, Animated Film

The Lost Daughter 3 nominations: Actress, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay

Single nominations for:

Spencer: Actress

The Hand of God: International Film

Cyrano: Costumes

Lead Me Home: Documentary Short

I go 87/120 for 72.5%.  Lowest in a few years.

MTFB'S Final Oscar Nomination Predictions / Tight Spots / Final Oscar Nomination Predictions from the Experts

MTFB'S FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Here they be.  

My final Oscar nomination predictions for the 94th Academy Awards.  Over the last six years my success rate has been 78.5%.  Should that hold tomorrow, I'll land somewhere around 94 out of the 120 nominees that will be announced.  Additionally, the film/performer that I have listed as the first alternate in each category will be a nominee in about 30% of the cases where I miss at least one nominee in a category.  All that said, BAFTA nominations last week seemed weird and I expect some more weird tomorrow morning.

As always, TFF #48 films/performers are in Bold.

I'll have nominees up sometime fairly soon after the announcements and likely a comment or two.

BEST PICTURE 

1) Belfast

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Dune

4) Licorice Pizza

5) West Side Story

6) Don't Look Up

7) CODA

8) King Richard

9) Being the Ricardos

10) tick, tick...BOOM

Alternates: Nightmare Alley and Drive My Car

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Denis Villenueve/Dune

4) Paul Thomas Anderson/Licorice Pizza

5) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

Alternates: Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car and Adam McKay/Don't Look Up

BEST ACTRESS

1) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

2) Lady Gaga/House of Gucci

3) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

4) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

5) Jennifer Hudson/Respect

Alternates: Kristen Stewart/Spencer and Alana Haim/Licorice Pizza 

BEST ACTOR 

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Leonardo DiCaprio/Don't Look Up

Alternates: Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos and Peter Dinklage/Cyrano

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Caitriona Balfe/Belfast

3) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

4) Aunjanue Ellis/King Richard

5) Cate Blanchett/Nightmare Alley

Alternates: Ruth Negga/Passing and Anne Dowd/Mass

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

2) Troy Kotsur/CODA

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Bradley Cooper/Licorice Pizza

5) Jared Leto/House of Gucci

Alternates: Ben Affleck/The Tender Bar and Jamie Dornan/Belfast

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

1) Belfast 

2) Licorice Pizza 

3) Don't Look Up 

4) King Richard 

5) Being the Ricardos 

Alternates: Parallel Mothers and The French Dispatch

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

1) The Power of the Dog 

2) The Lost Daughter

3) West Side Story

4) CODA 

5) Drive My Car 

Alternates: Dune and The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE 

1) Drive My Car/Japan 

2) The Worst Person in the World/Norway 

3) The Hand of God/Italy 

4) A Hero/Iran 

5) Flee/Denmark 

Alternates: Compartment #6/Finland and I'm Your Man/Germany

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE 

1) Encanto 

2) The Mitchells vs. the Machines 

3) Flee 

4) Luca 

5) Raya and the Last Dragon 

Alternates: Belle and Sing 2

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Flee

2) Summer of Soul

3) The Rescue

4) Ascension

5) Procession

Alternates: Attica and The First Wave 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) The Tragedy of Macbeth

4) Belfast

5) Nightmare Alley

Alternates: West Side Story and No Time to Die 

BEST EDITING

1) Dune

2) Belfast

3) The Power of the Dog

4) Don't Look Up

5) Licorice Pizza

Alternates: No Time to Die and West Side Story 

         

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 

1) Dune 

2) Nightmare Alley 

3) West Side Story

4) Belfast 

5) The French Dispatch 

Alternates: The Tragedy of Macbeth and Cruella

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 

1) Dune 

2) The Power of the Dog 

3) The French Dispatch 

4) Don't Look Up

5) Encanto 

Alternates: Parallel Mothers and Spencer

BEST ORIGINAL SONG 

1) No Time to Die/No Time to Die 

2) Be Alive/King Richard 

3) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto 

4) Just Look Up/Don't Look Up

5) Down to Joy/Belfast 

Alternates: Guns Go Bang/The Harder They Fall and Here I Am/Respect

BEST COSTUMES 

1) Cruella

2) Dune 

3) West Side Story 

4) Nightmare Alley 

5) House of Gucci 

Alternates: Cyrano and Spencer

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune 

2) Spiderman: No Way Home 

3) The Matrix Resurrections 

4) No Time to Die 

5) Shang Chi and The Legend of the Ten Rings 

Alternates: Godzilla vs. King Kong and Free Guy

SOUND

1) Dune 

2) West Side Story

3) No Time to Die 

4) Spiderman: No Way Home 

5) The Power of the Dog 

Alternates: The Matrix Resurrections and Belfast

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Dune 

2) Cruella 

3) House of Gucci 

4) The Eyes of Tammy Faye 

5) Coming 2 America  

Alternates: No Time to Die and West Side Story

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Queen of Basketball

2) Terror Contagion

3) When We Were Bullies

4) Days of Rage

5) Coded: The Hidden Loves of J.C. Leyendecker

Alternates: Camp Confidential: America's Secret Nazis and Three Songs for Benazir

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Us Again

2) Robin Robin

3) Namoo

4) Bestia

5) The Windshield Wiper

Alternates: The Musician and Step into the River

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Long Goodbye

2) When the Sun Sets

3) Censor of Dreams

4) Frimas

5) Please Hold

Alternates: Ala Kachuu: Take and Run and Under the Heavens

THOUGHTS:

I have Dune and The Power of the Dog both getting 10 nominations  followed by:

Belfast-9

West Side Story-7

Don't Look Up-6

Licorice Pizza and King Richard -5

Nightmare Alley and House of Gucci-4

CODA, Being the Ricardos, No Time to Die, Encanto and Flee-3

tick, tick...BOOM, Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, Cruella and Spiderman: No Way Home-2

All other films making the list with a single nomination.

Nightmare Alley and House of Gucci are predicted to have the most nominations without a Best Picture nomination.  However, if Blanchett does land in Supporting Actress and Nightmare picks up a not necessarily out-of-the question Adapted Screenplay nomination...who knows?  I'm rooting for that to happen.

Eleven TFF #48 films should earn at least one nomination and the TFF #48 total predicted nominations stands at 36.

TIGHT SPOTS:

Best Picture: Ay Ay AY!  Seems to me that eight or maybe even nine spots are likely decided but that last couple...yeesh.  Included in the scrum: Being the Ricardos, Nightmare Alley, tick, tick...BOOM, No Time to Die, Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter, House of Gucci, The Tragedy of Macbeth and maybe even Spiderman: No Way Home-though that bubble has lost some air over the last week or so.

Director: Campion, Branagh, PTA and Villenueve look good.  Speilberg and Hamaguchi are slugging it out for the fifth spot.

Actress: Kidman, Gaga and Colman seem solid.  Then it's ugly tight between Chastain, Hudson, Stewart (who fell so far so fast), Haim and Cruz.

Actor: Smith, Cumberbatch, Garfield and Washington are in good shape.  Last spot is a tug-of-war between DiCaprio, Bardem and Dinklage.

Supporting Actress: It already seems like DeBose has the statue in hand.  Dunst and Balfe seem safe for a nom.  Ellis, Blanchett and Negga are bunched tightly.

Supporting Actor: Smit-McPhee and Kotsur are good to go.  Hinds should have been a lock but missing the BAFTA nom last week makes him vulnerable.  Cooper has come on strong of late.  Last spot probably goes to Leto but there are strong challenges from Affleck, Dornan and a surging Plemons.

Original Screenplay: The top five here seem to be in good shape.

Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog and The Lost Daughter seem locked than it gets brutal with CODA, Drive My Car, West Side Story, Dune, The Tragedy of Macbeth and Nightmare Alley all battling to get one of the last three spots.

FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICITONS FROM THE EXPERTS:

Clayton Davis/Variety

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Anne Thonpson/Indiewire

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Andrew Carden/The Awards Connection

Vanity Fair

Joey Magidson/Awards Radar

Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture 

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Kyle Buchanan/The New York Times

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience

Mark Johnson/Good as Gold

Gregory Ellwood/The Playlist

Gold Derby

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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