Oscar Predictions Updated for Picture, Director and Screenplays / New Predictions for Cinematography, Score and Production Design / Oscar History and TFF / The True Story Behind The Aeronauts / Tracy Letts Talks Ford

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATED

Continuing today with the new Oscar prediction schedule that will take us right up to the announcement of Oscar nominations on Jan. 13th.

Here's the latest updated predictions for Best Picture, Director and both Screenplay categories as well as first time predictions for Cinematography, Original Score and Production Design.  For the updates I have indicated the last time I posted them as well as that film's position in that previous posting.  As always all films from TFF #46 are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE (last update on Oct. 28th)

1) Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood (1)

2) The Irishman (2)

3) Parasite (4)

4) Marriage Story (3)

5) Jojo Rabbit (5)

6) The Two Popes (6)

7) 1917 (7)

8) Bombshell (8)

9) Ford v Ferrari (-)

10) Joker (-)

Other possibles: The Farewell, Little Women, Judy, Just Mercy

Notes: with its actual release to theaters, Ford v. Ferrari makes a move.

BEST DIRECTION (last update on Nov. 7th)

1) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite (2)

2) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time... (1)

3) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman (3)

4) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story (4)

5) Sam Mendes/1917 (5)

6) Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit (-)

Other possibles: Fernando Meirelles/The Two Popes, Todd Phillips/Joker, James Mangold/Ford v Ferrari

Notes: Bong makes a move to the top spot.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (Last updated on Nov. 4th)

1) Jojo Rabbit (2)

2) The Irishman (3)

3) The Two Popes (1)

4) Little Women (4)

5) Joker (-)

6) Just Mercy (-)

Other possibles: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Hustlers, Downton Abbey

Notes: Nice jump up for Jojo Rabbit. A lot of uncertainty about which category The Two opes will end up in.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (Last updated on Oct. 31st)

1) Marriage Story (1)

2) Once Upon a Time... (2)

3) Parasite (3)

4) The Farewell (4)

5) Bombshell (5)

6) Ford v Ferrari (-)

Other possibles: Bombshell, Knives Out, Dolemite Is My Name. 1917

NEW OSCAR PREDICTIONS

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Once upon a Time...

2) The Irishman

3) 1917

4) A Hidden Life

5) Parasite

6) Ad Astra

Other possibles: The Lighthouse, Ford v Ferrari, Joker, Little Women

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

2) Little Women

3) 1917

4) Marriage Story

5) Ford v Ferrari

6) Jojo Rabbit

Other possibles: Waves, The Irishman, Ad Astra

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Once Upon a Time...

2) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

3) The Irishman

4) Little Women

5) The Two Popes

6) Cats

Other possibles; 1917, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, Downton Abbey, Jojo Rabbit

OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF

Matching the new categories added to this wave of Oscar predictions, here's the history of Oscar nominations for the films that played at the Telluride Film Festival in the Cinematography, Original Score and Production Design (Art and/or Set Direction) categories:

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1993- The Piano, Farewell My Concubine
1995- Shanghai Triad
1996- Fly Away Home
2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon-WINNER
2001- Amelie
2002- City of God
2003- Girl with a Pearl Earring
2004- The House of Flying Daggers
2005- Brokeback Mountain
2007- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, There Will Be Blood (scenes screened)
2008- Slumdog Millionaire-WINNER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2009- The White Ribbon
2010- The King's Speech, Black Swan
2011- The Artist
2013- Gravity-WINNER, Nebraska, Inside Llewyn Davis, Prisoners
2014- Birdman-WINNER
2015- Carol
2016- La La Land-WINNER, Moonlight, Arrival
2017- The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour
2018- Roma-WINNER, The Favourite, Cold War

Overall 32 nominations and six wins.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon-WINNER
2002- Frida-WINNER
2005- Brokeback Mountain-WINNER
2006- Babel- WINNER
2008- Slumdog Millionaire-WINNER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2010- The King's Speech, 127 Hours
2011- The Artist-WINNER
2012- Argo
2013- Gravity-WINNER
2014- The Imitation Game
2015- Carol
2016- La La Land-WINNER, Moonlight
2017- The Shape of Water-WINNER

Overall 16 nominations and a remarkable nine wins.


BEST ART DIRECTION/PRODUCTION DESIGN

1990- Cyrano de Bergerac
1994- Bullets Over Broadway
2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon-WINNER, Quills
2007- Amelie
2003- The Girl with the Pearl Earring
2007- There Will Be Blood (scenes screened)
2008- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button- WINNER (scenes screened)
2010- The King's Speech
2011- The Artist
2013- 12 Years a Slave, Gravity
2014- The Imitation Game
2016- La La Land-WINNER, Arrival
2017- The Shape of Water-WINNER, Darkest Hour
2018- Roma, The Favourite, First Man

Overall 20 nominations and four wins.


THE TRUE STORY BEHIND THE AERONAUTS

Pathikrit Sanyal writes of the actual incidents that inspired the creation of the Tom Harper film The Aeronauts starring Eddie Redmayne and Felicity Jones.

As you might expect, the real story differs at points from the actual incidents including the fact that the ascent depicted in the film was made by two men rather than a man and a woman.

Here is that story from MEAWW.com.


TRACY LETTS TALKS FORD

Entertainment Weekly posted this Derek Lawrence interview with actor and writer Tracy Letts.  Letts plays Henry Ford II, the Ford of Ford v Ferrari.

Ford v Ferrari is in theaters now having opened this past weekend and winning the top box office spot.

Here's the link to the Letts interview at EW.com


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Oscar Predictions Expand / So Much Content...Interviews and Profiles: The Report, Waves, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story, Diego Maradona, Uncut Gems, Tell Me Who I Am, Parasite and Pain and Glory / Oscar History and TFF: Documentary and Animated Feature

OSCAR PREDICTIONS EXPAND

With Oscar nominations announced in just two months (Jan. 13th), I'm expanding nomination predictions beginning with today's post.

I have the categories broken into groups so that over the course of each couple of weeks, I'll be updating each of the 21 feature categories.  I'll add the three Shorts categories as we approach nomination morning in January.

Today I'll be updating all four of the acting categories as well as making first attempts for nomination predictions for Documentary, Animated Feature and Film Editing.

Acting categories were last updated on Nov. 11th for Best Actress and Actor.  Supporting Actress and Actor were last updated on Oct. 21 and 24 respectively.

As always, TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.  The film or performers previous position in these predictions are indicated in parentheses.



BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Charlize Theron/Bombshell (2)
3) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (3)
4) Saoirse Ronan/Little Woman (4)
5) Cynthia Ervio/Harriet (5)

Other possibles: Awkwafina/The Farewell, Lupita Nyong'o/Us, Alfre Woodard/Clemency

BEST ACTOR

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
2) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (2)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (4)
5) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory (-)

Other possibles: Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name, Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Taron Egerton/Rocketman, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story (1)
2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers (2)
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell (4)
4) Florence Pugh/Little Women (-)
5) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit (-)

Other possibles: Zhao Shuzhen/The Farewell, Maggie Smith/Downton Abbey, Annette Bening/The Report, Thomasin McKenzie/Jojo Rabbit

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (1)
2) Al Pacino/The Irishman (2)
3) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes (4)
4) Joe Pesci/The Irishman (5)
5) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (4)

Other possibles: Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Alan Alda/Marriage Story, Wesley Snipes/Dolemite Is My Name, Shia Labeouf/Honey Boy

And now for first predictions in three categories:

BEST DOCUMENTARY

1) American Factory
2) Apollo 11
3) One Child Nation
4) Sea of Shadows
5) The Cave

Other possibles: Knock Down the House, Honeyland, The Kingmaker, The Biggest Little Farm(*TFF #45)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Toy Story 4
2) Frozen II
3) The Missing Link
4) I Lost My Body
5) How to Train Your Dragon/Hidden World

Other possibles: Klaus, Abominable, Funan

FILM EDITING

1) The Irishman
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) Once Upon a Time in ... Hollywood
4) 1917
5) Parasite

Other possibles: Marriage Story, Jojo Rabbit, The Two Popes

MTFB's next post will include updates for Best Picture, Director, and Screenplays and first time predictions for Cinematography, Original Score and Production Design.


SO MUCH CONTENT...INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

A blizzard of interviews and profiles have appeared over the last few days regarding films that played at TFF #46.  I've tried to capture many of them to connect them for you.  Here's the retrospective:


The Report's writer/director Scott Z. Burns talks to Brian Welk for The Wrap

The Reports' Annette Bening talks to Jessica Zack for The San Francisco Chronicle's Datebook

Waves' writer director Trey Edward Shults talks to Jacqueline Coley for Rotten Tomatoes

Waves' cast members talk to Mackenzie Nichols for Variety

Motherless Brooklyn director and screen writer Edward Norton talks to Anne Thompson for Indiewire

Ford v Ferrari director James Mangold talks to Anthony D'Alessandro for Deadline

Mangold also talks to John Horn for The Frame

Mangold talks to Anne Thompson of Indiewire

Marriage Story's Alan Alda talks to Eric Kohn for Indiewire

Marriage Story's Laura Dern talks to Erin Nyren for Variety

Diego Maradona director Asif Kapadia talks to Annie Howard for The Hollywood Reporter

Uncut Gems' Adam Sandler talks to Latesha Harris for Variety

Twins Alex and Marcus Lewis, the focus of the doc Tell Me Who I Am,  talk to Matthew Carey for Deadline

Parasite's writer/director Bong Joon-ho talks to Patrick Bzeski for The Hollywood Reporter

Parasite actors Park So-dam and Choi Woo-shik talk to Demi Kampakis for The Film Stage

Pain and Glory actor Antonio Banderas talks to Latesha Harris for Variety




OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: DOCUMENTARY AND ANIMATED FEATURE

The project continues documenting the history of Oscar nominees and the Telluride Film Festival with a look at Documentary Feature and Animated Feature nominees from the fest through the years.


BEST DOCUMENTARY

1981- Eight Minutes to Midnight
1983- Seeing Red
1984- The Times of Harvey Milk-WINNER
1989- Super Chief: The Life and Legacy of Earl Warren
1991- Wild by Law
1996- Ayn Rand: A Sense of Life
2002- Bowling for Columbine-WINNER
2003- The Fog of War-WINNER
2007- Encounters at the End of the World
2010- Inside Job-WINNER
2011- Pina
2012- The Gatekeepers
2013- The Missing Picture, The Act of Killing
2014- Salt of the Earth
2015- The Look of Silence, Winter on Fire
2016- Fires at Sea
2017- Faces Places
2018- Free Solo-WINNER

Overall 20 nominations and five wins.



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

2002- Spirited Away-WINNER
2003- The Triplets of Belleville
2007- Persepolis
2010- Chico and Rita, The Illusionist
2013- The Wind Rises
2015- Anomalisa
2017- Loving Vincent

Overall eight nominations and one win.


That's Thursday.

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Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature / Oscar Predictions Update: Actress and Actor / EFA Nominations Announced / Interviews From Marriage Story

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Here's my first crack at parsing the likely nominees for the newly renamed Best International Feature category for the Academy Awards.  As always films from TFF are in Bold.

1) Parasite

2) Pain and Glory

3) Les Miserables

4) Atlantics

5) Monos

Other Possibles: And Then We Danced, Beanpole, The Painted Bird.

Notes: Honestly, the perception right now is that Parasite is so solid as the front runner for this Oscar that it seems a foregone conclusion that it will not only be nominated but will also win and that the rest of the field is playing for the proverbial "just honored to be nominated" status.  But then, remember Toni Erdmann...

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: BEST ACTRESS AND ACTOR

Here's my latest updated predictions for Best Actress and Actor nominations.  I last updated the Best Actress prediction on Oct. 14th and Best Actor on Oct. 17th.

The latest predictions are listed in order of likelihood with their past position indicated in parentheses.  as is my custom, TFF #46 films are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Charlize Theron/Bombshell (-)
3) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (2)
4) Saorise Ronan/Little Women (-)
5) Cynthia Ervio/Harriet (3)

Other possibles: Awkwafina/The Farewell, Lupita Nyong'o/Us, Alfre Woodard/Clemency.

Notes: Theron coming on like a freight train as some folks have actually seen Bombshell.  Zellweger still has a solid grasp on the top spot.

BEST ACTOR

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
2) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (2)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (4)
5) Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name (-)

Other possibles: Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory, Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems.

Notes: The category is relatively stable over the last three weeks.  Murphy sneaks in over Banderas and DeNiro...at least for now.

EFA NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

The European Film Academy announced the nominees for their awards for superlatives in European films for the past year and they included films from both TFF #46 and TFF #45.

TFF nominees included:

Pain and Glory nominated for Best European Film, Antonio Banderas/Best Actor, Pedro Almodovar/Best Director, Pedro Almodovar/Best Screenwriter.

Portrait of a Lady on Fire: Celine Sciamma/Best Director, Noemie Merlant and Adele Haenel/Best Actress, Celine Sciamma/Best Screenwriter

Beanpole: Viktoria Miroshnichenko/Best Actress

The Favourite (from TFF #45) Best European Film, Olivia Colman/Best Actress, Yorgos Lanthimos/Best Director

The complete list of nominees except for animated films is linked here from Deadline.

INTERVIEWS FROM MARRIAGE STORY

As Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story got its limited theatrical release this week and with its streaming release less than a month away (Dec. 6th) we are seeing more and more about the film including interviews with its principals.

Anne Thompson of Indiewire talks to Noah Baumbach

Baz Bamigboye of The Daily Mail talks to Adam Driver

Erik Anderson of Awards Watch talks to Alan Alda


That's Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Oscar Prediction Update: Best Director / Oscar History and TFF: Best Foreign Language-International Film / The Two Popes Has a Trailer

OSCAR PREDICTION UPDATE: BEST DIRECTOR

Here are my current predictions for the Best Direction Oscar with the past prediction listed in the parentheses.  TFF #46 films are in Bold.

1) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (1)

2) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite (3)

3) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman (1)

4) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story (4)

5) Sam Mendes/1917 (-)

Other Possibles: Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit, Fernando Meirellles/The Two Popes, Todd Phillips/Joker, Greta Gerwig/Little Women, Lulu Wang/The Farewell

Notes:  A bit of shuffling at the top with Bong Joon-ho and Tarantino in a dead heat and Scorsese close behind. Also, there's been a fairly substantial surge for Sam Mendes and 1917.

OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF-FOREIGN LANGUAGE/INTERNATIONAL FILM

Here's my continuation of the complete series of nominations for TFF films for each of the 21 feature film categories.  Today's review is for the recently renamed film category that has been called Foreign Language Film and has been renamed International Feature beginning with this year's Oscars.

Here's the history:

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1981- Three Brothers
1983- Carmen, Entre Nous
1984- Camila
1985- Colonel Redl
1986- The Decline of the American Empire, My Secret Little Village
1987- Babbette's Feast-WINNER, Au Revoir Les Enfants
1988- Salaam Bombay, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
1989- Cinema Paradiso-WINNER
1990- Cyrano de Bergerac, The Nasty Girl, Ju Don
1991- Raise the Red Lantern, Oxen
1993- Farewell My Concubine
1994- Dust of Life, Strawberry and Chocolate
1996- Koyla
1998- Central Station, Tango
2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon-WINNER
2001- Amelie, No Man's Land
2002- Man Without a Past
2003- The Barbarian Invasions
2005- Paradise Now
2006- The Lives of Others-WINNER
2007- The Counterfeiters-WINNER
2008- Waltz with Bashir, Revanche
2009- The White Ribbon, A Prophet
2010- Incendies
2011- A Separation-WINNER, In Darkness, Footnote
2012- Amour-WINNER, A Royal Affair, No
2014- Ida- WINNER, Leviathan, Wild Tales
2015- Son of Saul-WINNER
2016- Toni Erdmann
2017- A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, Loveless
2018- Roma-WINNER, Cold War, Shoplifters

Overall 53 nominations and 10 wins.


THE TWO POPES HAS A TRAILER

Fernando Meirelles' The Two Popes debuted at Telluride over Labor Day weekend to a great response.  I've said it before, by the time I got to the last day and a half of the fest the film I was hearing the most buzz about was The Two Popes.

Now Netflix, prepping the film for its release on Nov. 27th followed by its Netflix bow on Dec. 20th, has dropped a new trailer for the film.

Here's that from YouTube:

Also, here's the link to the story about the trailer release from The Hollywood Reporter.


As a bonus, here's a link to an interview with Two Popes screenwriter Anthony McCarten from Gold Derby.


That's Thursday.


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Oscar Predictions Update: Adapted Screenplay / Latest Big Eight Count / Oscar History and TFF: Adapted Screenplay / Sasha Stone Has a New Thing

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

I'm posting my latest take on the Best Adapted Screenplay race today.  My last Original Screenplay predictions were posted on Oct. 3rd.  Each film is followed by its position from the last prediction posting in parentheses.  TFF #46 films are Bold.


1) The Two Popes (1)
2) Jojo Rabbit (2)
3) The Irishman (3)
4) Little Women (-)
5) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (4)

Other possibles: Joker, Just Mercy, Ford v. Ferrari, Hustlers

Notes:  The top three contenders: Popes, Jojo and Irishman seem to be in very solid position.  After that it gets murkier.  Little Women has come on strong during the past month almost certainly as screening reactions have started appearing via social media but is no lock and a fifth nominee is totally up in the air.


LATEST BIG EIGHT COUNT

According to my latest predictions in each of the Big Eight Oscar categories (Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay), here's were TFF #46 films stand in as far as those categories are concerned:

Marriage Story (6): Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay
The Two Popes (4): Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Parasite (3): Picture, Director, Original Screenplay
Judy (1): Actress
Pain and Glory (1): Actor
The Report (1): Supporting Actress


OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Here's the complete history of nominees and winners for the Best Original Screenplay category and the Telluride Film Festival:


1989- My Left Foot
1990- Reversal of Fortune
1996- Sling Blade-WINNER
2000- Crouching Tiger  Hidden Dragon
2002- City of God
2005- Brokeback Mountain-WINNER, Capote
2006- Little Children
2007- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, There Will Be Blood (scenes screened)
2008- Slumdog Millionaire-WINNER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2009- Up in the Air, An Education
2010- 127 Hours
2011- The Descendants
2012- Argo-WINNER
2013- 12 Years a Slave-WINNER
2014- The Imitation Game-WINNER
2015- Room, Carol
2016- Moonlight-WINNER, Arrival
2018- Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Overall 24 nominees and seven wins.



SASHA STONE HAS A NEW THING

Awards Daily founder Sasha Stone has added a new podcast to that realm called Gold Tripping.  The podcast is billed as Sasha looking back at her 20 year involvement in handicapping the Oscar race and her life during that time.

Here's the link to the new podcast.

Give it a listen.


That's Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Oscar Predictions Update: Original Screenplay / Oscar History and TFF: Original Screenplay / New Waves Trailer / Focus On Parasite / Deadline Talks to the Director and Writer of The Two Popes

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

I'm posting my latest take on the Best Original Screenplay race today.  My last Original Screenplay predictions were posted on Oct. 3rd.  Each film is followed by its position from the last prediction posting in parentheses.  TFF #46 films are Bold.


1) Marriage Story (1)
2) Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (2)
3) Parasite (3)
4) The Farewell (4)
5) Bombshell (-)

Other possibles: Dolemite Is My Name, Knives Out, 1917

Notes: Bombshell explodes into the race (along with its possible shot at a Best Picture nomination).  Dolemite is also gaining some momentum.  The top two seem to be probable locks at this point and Parasite is edging closer to that status.


OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Here's the complete history of nominees and winners for the Best Original Screenplay category and the Telluride Film Festival:

1974- The Conversation
1983- El Norte
1987- Au Revoirs Les Enfants
1992- The Crying Game
1993- The Piano-WINNER, Three Colors: Blue
1994- Bullets Over Broadway
1996- Secrets and Lies
1997- The Sweet Hereafter
2001- Amelie
2002- Talk to Her
2003- Lost in Translation, The Barbarian Invasions
2006- Babel
2007- Juno
2008- Happy-Go-Lucky
2010- The King's Speech-WINNER, Another Year
2011-The Artist
2012- Amour
2013- Nebraska
2014- Birdman-WINNER, Foxcatcher
2015- Spotlight-WINNER
2016- Manchester by the Sea-WINNER, La La Land
2017- The Shape of Water, Lady Bird
2018- Roma, The Favourite

Overall 29 nominations and five wins.


NEW WAVES TRAILER

A24 dropped a new trailer for Trey Edward Shults' Waves starring Sterling K. Brown, Renee Elise Goldsberry, Taylor Russell and Lucas Hedges.  Here that is from YouTube:

Waves will open on Nov. 15th.


FOCUS ON PARASITE



I have linked a number of stories/posts here about Bong Joon-Ho's Parasite which is currently being billed as the best reviewed film of the year.  The film was certainly well regarded by Telluride attendees as it finished at the top of The Professionals and the Composite ratings.  The People's Telluride had it a #2 behind The Two Popes.

Here are links to those posts:

Indiewire's David Ehrlich talks to Parasite star Song Kang-ho

Indiewire's Chris O'Falt talks to Bong Joon-ho and the production design team

Indiewire's Anne Thompson and Eric Kohn's podcast ScreenTalk includes Parasite


Parasite is in theaters in the United States now.


DEADLINE TALKS TO DIRECTOR AND WRITER OF THE TWO POPES

As a part of their contender series Deadline.com was in London and spoke with The Two Popes director Fernando Meirelles and writer Anthony McCarten.  Among the topics: the genesis if the film that focuses on Popes Francis and Benedict played by Jonathan Pryce and Anthony Hopkins respectively.

The article and video are linked here.


That's your Thursday.



EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Oscar Predictions Update: Best Picture / Awards Season Starts to Get Real: Gothams, Clios, International Docs / New Trailer for The Aeronauts / Bleeker Street Nabs The Assistant

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: BEST PICTURE

I'm posting my latest take on the Best Picture race today.  My last Best Picture predictions were posted on Oct. 7th.  Each film is followed by its position from the last prediction posting in parentheses.  TFF #46 films are Bold.

1) Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (1)
2) The Irishman (3)
3) Marriage Story (2)
4) Parasite (5)
5) Jojo Rabbit (4)
6) The Two Popes (9)
7) 1917 (7)
8) Bombshell (-)
9) The Farewell (10)
10) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (6)

Other Possibles: Joker, Ford v. Ferrari, Dolemite Is My Name, Just Mercy

Notes: Substantial positive moves for The Two Popes and Bombshell.  Meanwhile Ford v. Ferrari and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood both have lost some steam.


AWARDS SEASON STARTS TO GET REAL...

GOTHAM AWARD NOMINATIONS

The first of the end of season feature films awards organizations was out this week with their nominations for the best films of the year.  The Gotham Awards focus on small to modest budgeted independent American films and as such do not nominate a film like Ford v. Ferrari.  Nevertheless, their list gives us the first taste of some of the films and performances that will likely be a part of the larger awards conversation as the next few months unfold.

Last year's nominees included The Rider, The Favourite and First Reformed for Best Feature; Ethan Hawke and Richard E. Grant for Best Actor and Yalitza Aparicio for Breakthrough Actress.

This year's newly announced nominees include a number of films/performances from TFF #46 films:

Best Feature includes: Marriage Story, Uncut Gems and Waves.
Best Actor: Adam Driver/Marriage Story, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems
Best Screenplay: Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story
Breakthrough Actor: Julia Fox/Uncut Gems, Taylor Russell/Waves

Other Best Feature nominees includes The Farewell and Hustlers.

Coverage of the Gotham Award nominees is linked here from:

Indiewire

Variety


CLIO SHORT LIST FOR TRAILERS AND TEASERS ANNOUNCED

The shortlist for the Clio Awards for trailers, teasers and integrated campaigns was released last week and included several nominees from TFF #45 and #46 films.

Among the teasers on the short list were "La Casa" from Roma

Among trailers short listed were trailers for First Man, Roma, Border and Parasite. 

Roma was also short listed for Best Integrated Campaign.

The Clios will be awarded on Nov. 21st.

Here's the story from  Trailer-Track.com


INTERNATIONAL DOCUMENTARY AWARDS

Also announced this past week were the nominees for this year's International Documentary Awards.  A couple of TFF docs from the past two years made it into the various lists of finalists.

TFF #45 film The Biggest Little Farm was nominated for Best Feature and Best Music Score.  Meanwhile TFF #46 doc The Gift: The Journey of Johnny Cash was nominated for Best Music Documentary.  Also nominated in that category was two-time nearly a TFF film and finally a part of this year's lineup, Amazing Grace.

The IDAs will be awarded on Dec. 7th.

The complete lists of nominees are here from Indiewire.


NEW TRAILER FOR THE AERONAUTS

We have a brand new trailer for Tom Harper's The Aeronauts from Amazon Studios.  That dropped over the weekend.  Here's the new glimpse of the film via YouTube:

The Aeronauts will be in select theaters on Dec. 6th and on Amazon Prime on Dec. 20th.


BLEEKER STREET NABS THE ASSISTANT

Kitty Green's The Assistant, which played at this year's fest, has been acquired for U.S. distribution by Bleeker Street.

That news coming officially from the company and The Hollywood Reporter.  I'd been tipped off to the acquisition a couple of weeks ago by a friend of them blog and had been keeping it under warps until the deal became official.

The THR story says the film will be released domestically on Jan. 31st, 2020.


Monday is done day...


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Oscar Predictions Update: Best Supporting Actor / Oscar History and TFF: Best Supporting Actor / It's Bale vs. Damon / Variety's 34 Best Picture Contenders

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

I last checked in on the Best Supporting Actor Oscar race on Sept. 25th.  Here's the new update for the category with the actor's previous position in parentheses.  Performances from TFF #46 films are in Bold.


1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (1)
2) Al Pacino/The Irishman (4)
3) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (2)
4) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes (3)
5) Joe Pesci/The Irishman (-)

Other possibles: Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Alan Alda/Marriage Story, John Lithgow/Bombshell, Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit

Notes:  Joe Pesci especially, but also Al Pacino are riding a crest of positive reactions to the first screenings of Martin Scorsese's The Irishman.  It will also be interesting to see if Scorsese's recent critique of "Superhero" films has any effect on how Oscarologists are handicapping the season.



OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Here's the complete history of nominees and winners for the Best Supporting Actor category and the Telluride Film Festival:

1992- Jaye Davidson/The Crying Game
1994- Martin Landau/Ed Wood-WINNER, Chazz Palminteri/Bullets Over Broadway
1997- James Coburn/Affliction-WINNER
2000- WIllem Dafoe/Shadow of the Vampire
2005- Jake Gyllenhaal/Brokeback Mountain
2006- Jackie Earle Haley/Little Children
2007- Hal Holbrook/Into the Wild
2009- Christopher Plummer/The Last Station
2010- Geoffrey Rush/The King's Speech
2012- Alan Arkin/Argo
2013- Michael Fassbender/12 Years a Slave
2014- Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher, Edward Norton/Birdman
2015- Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight
2016- Mahershala Ali/Moonlight-WINNER, Lucas Hedges- Manchester by the Sea
2017- Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
2018- Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Overall 19 nominations and three wins.


IT'S BALE VS. DAMON

The question about where Matt Damon and Christian Bale would be campaigned in terms of Oscar categorization was answered earlier this week as reports from a number of sources indicated that both will be categorized as leads and as such will be going head to head for Best Actor nominations.

Some reports even indicated that Bale was the one who actually made the determination.

Indiewire's story on the matter is linked here.

Variety's report is here.

Deadline's story is here.


VARIETY LISTS 34 BEST PICTURE PLAYERS

Variety's Jenelle Riley and Avika Gottlieb writing for Variety have come up with a list of 34 films that they believe are the most likely films to be nominated for the Best Picture Oscar.  Among those films are   that played at TFF #46.

Those TFF #46 films are:

The Aeronauts
Ford v. Ferrari
A Hidden Life
Judy
Marriage Story
Motherless Brooklyn
Pain and Glory
Parasite
The Two Popes
Uncut Gems
Waves


The complete list of all 34 as well as brief descriptions and Oscar analysis for each is linked here.


That's your Thursday.


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Oscar Predictions Update: Best Supporting Actress / Bong Joon Ho Talks Parasite / Marriage Story Has New Looks / Off the Radar... / Beanpole Teaser Appears / Adam Sandler Talks Uncut Gems

OSCAR PREDICTION UPDATE: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

I last checked in on the Best Supporting Actress Oscar race on Sept. 25th.  Here's the new update for the category with the actor's previous position in parentheses.  Performances from TFF #46 films are in Bold.

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story (1)

2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers (2)

3) Margot Robbie/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (3)

4) Margot Robbie/Bombshell (-)

5) Annette Bening/The Report (4)

Other Possibles: Thomasin McKenzie/Jojo Rabbit, Maggie Smith/Downton Abbey, Shuzhen Zhao/The Farewell, Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit

Notes: Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) and Taylor Russell (Waves) have, for the moment, waned over the last month or so.  The Margot Robbie double mention is likely to shake down to one or the other.  My guess going forward is that she's more likely to get a nomination for Bombshell.  We'll see.

BONG JOON HO TALKS PARASITE

My friend Tomris Laffly had a fantastic interview with Parasite director Bong Joon Ho at rogerebert.com this past week.  Parasite is, perhaps, the most talked about film that appeared at TFF #46.  It's a critical darling (Metacritic has it at 95).  The film was already hot after its Palme d"Or win at Cannes in May and the heat has steadily increased as it has moved through the fall fest season toward its eventual U.S. release this past week.

Here's the link to the interview.

MARRIAGE STORY HAS NEW LOOKS

Netflix unveiled a new trailer and a new poster for Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story recently.  Here's the new poster featuring the "Official Selection of the Telluride Film Festival" banner:

And here from YouTube is the new trailer for the film:

And a reminder here that I'm on the tank for a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Julie Hagerty and maybe a Supporting Actor nod for Ray Liotta.

OFF THE RADAR...

Not long ago we ran across the news that Alexander Payne was readying his next project to star Mads Mikkelsen.  As you might surmise, I immediately put it on my watch list as a possible, nee, probable  selection for TFF #47 owing to Payne's past with the fest.

Now, however, that seems to have gone away as Deadline reports that the project has fallen apart.  Mike Fleming revealed late this week that the Norwegian journalist upon which the project is based terminated his agreement to make the film.  The decision came with mere days left before the film was scheduled to begin filming.

The Deadline.com story is linked here.


BEANPOLE TEASER APPEARS

Russian entrant for the newly re-named Best International Oscar category, Kantemir Bugalov's Beanpole has an U.S. teaser.  Kino Lorber dropped that last week and I have it here for you via YouTube:

Demitra Kampakis has a lengthy interview with Bugalov at The Film Stage which you will find linked here.

ADAM SANDLER TALKS UNCUT GEMS

Leah Greenblatt/Entertainment Weekly talked to the star of the Safdie Brothers new film Uncut Gems which has Sandler some of the best reviews of his career after first screening at the Telluride Film Festival.

That article is linked here

Going to call this done for today.

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Oscar Predictions Update: Best Actor / Oscar History and TFF: Best Supporting Actress / TFF Docs and Critic's Choice / New Teaser for Ford v. Ferrari

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: BEST ACTOR

I last checked in on the Best Actor Oscar race on Sept. 19th.  Here's the new update for the category with the actor's previous position in parentheses.  Performances from TFF #46 films are in Bold.

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
2) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (4)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (2)
5) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory (5)

Possibles: Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Eddie Murphy/Dolemite is My Name, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems.

Comment: Recency helps.  Buzz for Joaquin Phoenix's performance spiked with the film's release two weeks ago and he jumped from #4 to #2.  Meanwhile, Leonardo DiCaprio, whose film opened in July.  Robert DeNiro has also benefited from The Irishman finally being in front of some eyes with its acting as the opening night film for the New York Film Fest.

Truth is that Banderas, DeNiro and Murphy are in a virtual tie for that fifth spot.

I'll update Best director predictions on Monday.


OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Lupita Nyong'o in 12 Years a Slave

Here's the complete history of nominees and winners for the Best Supporting Actress category and the Telluride Film Festival:

1987-Ann Sothern/The Whales of August
1989- Brenda Fricker/My Left Foot-WINNER
1991- Diane Ladd/Rambling Rose
1993- Anna Paquin/The Piano-WINNER
1994- Dianne Wiest/Bullets Over Broadway, Jennifer Tilly/Bullets Over Broadway
1996- Jean-Marie Baptiste/Secrets and Lies
2000- Samantha Morton/Sweet and Lowdown
2004- Laura Linney/Kinsey
2005- Michelle Williams/Brokeback Mountain, Catherine Keener/Capote
2006- Adriana Barraza/Babel, Rinko Kikuchi/Babel
2007-  Cate Blanchett/I'm Not There
2008- Taraji P. Henson/The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2009- Anna Kendrick/Up in the Air, Vera Farmiga/Up in the Air
2010- Helena Bonham Carter/The King's Speech
2011- Berenice Bejo/The Artist, Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs
2013- Lupita Nyong'o-12 Years a Slave-WINNER, June Squibb/Nebraska
2014- Emma Stone/Birdman, Laura Dern/Wild, Keira Knightley/The Imitation Game
2015- Rachel McAdams/Spotlight, Rooney Mara/Carol, Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs
2016- Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea, Naomie Harris/Moonlight
2017- Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
2018- Emma Stone/The Favourite, Rachel Weisz-The Favourite, Marina de Tavira/Roma


Overall 35 nominations and three wins: Brenda Fricker/My Left Foot-1989, Anna Paquin/The Piano-1993, Lupita Nyong'o/12 Years a Slave-2013.


TFF DOCS AND THE CRITIC'S CHOICE

The Biggest Little Farm, which was featured last year at TFF #45 led all documentaries in total nominations from the Broadcast Film Critics Association for their doc awards with a total of seven nominations including Best Documentary Feature.

This year's TFF docs were represented by The Kingmaker which earned four nominations.

The BFCA also announced that they would recognize Michael Apted's Up series of docs.  His latest entry in that series- 63 Up- was also featured this year at TFF #46.

The complete rundown is linked here from Indiewire.

The BFCA will present their awards for documentaries on Nov. 10th.


NEW TEASER FOR FORD V. FERRARI

Twentieth Century Fox gave us a new teaser for the film this week.  Check it here from YouTube:

Ford v. Ferrari opens on Nov. 15th.



That's today's MTFB.  More Monday.

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Oscar History and TFF: Best Actor / Oscar Predictions Update: Best Actress / RIP Robert Forster / Trailer for Tell Me Who I Am

OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: BEST ACTOR

I'm continuing the  breakdown of the history between TFF and The Academy Awards as related to each of the feature categories.  Today is the Best Actor nominees from films that have screened at the festival since its inception in 1974:


1989- Daniel Day Lewis/My Left Foot-WINNER
1990- Jeremy Irons/Reversal of Fortune-WINNER, Gerard Depardieu/Cyrano DeBergerac
1992-Stephen Rea/The Crying Game
1996-Billy Bob Thornton/Sling Blade
1997- Nick Nolte/Affliction
1999- Richard Farnsworth/The Straight Story
2000- Geoffrey Rush/Quills, Sean Penn/Sweet and Lowdown
2003- Bill Murray/Lost in Translation
2005- Philip Seymour Hoffman/Capote-WINNER, Heath Ledger/Brokeback Mountain, Joaquin Phoenix/Walk the Line
2006- Forrest Whitaker/The Last King of Scotland-WINNER, Peter O'Toole/Venus
2007- Daniel Day Lewis/There Will Be Blood-WINNER (scenes screened)
2008- Brad Pitt/The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2009- George Clooney/Up in the Air
2010-Colin Firth/The King's Speech-WINNER, James Franco/127 Hours, Javier Bardem/Biutiful
2011- Jean Dujardin/The Artist-WINNER, George Clooney/The Descendants
2013- Bruce Dern/Nebraska, Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave
2014- Michael Keaton/Birdman, Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game, Steve Carell/Foxcatcher
2015- Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs
2016-Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea-WINNER, Ryan Gosling/La La Land
2017- Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour-WINNER


Overall 32 Best Actor nominations with eight winners...Daniel Day Lewis twice.


OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: BEST ACTRESS

Here are my current predictions for the Best Actress.  This updates the last Best Actress set of predictions posted on Sept. 19th.  The actresses last prediction position is listed in parentheses.  TFF #46 films are in Bold.

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (2)
3) Cynthia Ervio/Harriet (3)
4)  Awkwafina/The Farewell (4)
5) Lupita N'yongo/Us (-)

Other possibles: Saorise Ronan/Little Women, Alfre Woodard/Clemency, Felicity Jones/The Aeronauts, Charlize Theron/Bombshell


RIP ROBERT FORSTER

Just a brief note on the death of actor Robert Forster.  Like a lot of people who love film, I thought Forster was a solid performer every time I saw him.  I know a lot of folks talk about Pam Grier's star turn in Jackie Brown but I always thought Forster in his comeback role in the film (thanks to Tarantino's choice to cast him) was, perhaps, the more impressive.

Forster, to the best of my ability to discern, appeared in two films that screened at TFFs.  Alexander Payne's The Descendants (2011) and David Lynch's 2001 masterpiece Mulholland Drive.

Like a lot of you, I had just watched El Camino and found out hours later that Forster was gone.  Seemed like an odd coincidence and...btw...he's great in it.
Forster was 78.

TRAILER FOR TELL ME WHO I AM

Netflix released a trailer in the middle of the last week for the TFF #46 documentary Tell Me Who I Am from director Ed Perkins.  The doc focuses on the story of identical twins one of which has survived a terrible motorcycle accident and awakes from a coma with no memory.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

Tell Me Who I Am will appear on Netflix on Friday.

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Oscar History and TFF: Best Actress / Oscar Predictions: Best Director Update / International Feature Long List

OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: BEST ACTRESS

Jane Alexander in Testament...the first Best Actress nominee from a TFF film

I'm turning now to a breakdown of the history between TFF and The Academy Awards as related to each of the feature categories.  Today I bring you the Best Actress nominees from films that have screened at the festival since its inception in 1974:

1983- Jane Alexander/Testament
1991- Laura Dern/Rambling Rose
1993- Holly Hunter/The Piano
1996- Brenda Blethyn/Secrets and Lies, Emily Watson/Breaking the Waves
1998-Fernanda Montenegro/Central Station
2002- Salma Hayek/Frida
2004- Annette Bening/Being Julia
2005- Reese Witherspoon/Walk the Line-WINNER
2006- Kate Winslet/Little Children, Penelope Cruz/Volver
2007- Ellen Page/Juno
2009- Carey Mulligan/An Education, Helen Mirren/The Last Station
2010- Natalie Portman/Black Swan-WINNER
2011- Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs
2012- Emanuelle Riva/Amour
2013- Sandra Bullock/Gravity
2014- Reese Witherspoon-Wild, Marion Cotillard/Two Days One Night
2015- Brie Larson/Room-WINNER, Cate Blanchett/Carol, Charlotte Rampling/45 Years
2016- Emma Stone/La La Land-WINNER
2017- Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water, Saorise Ronan/Lady Bird
2018- Olivia Colman/The Favourite-WINNER, Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Yalitza Aparicio/Roma

Overall 29 nominations for Best Actress with five winners including three of the last four.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR UPDATED

Here are my current predictions for the Best Direction Oscar with the past prediction listed in the parentheses.  TFF #46 films are in Bold.

Bong Joon-Ho/Parasite

1) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (1)

2) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman (5)

3) Bong Joon-Ho/Parasite (2)

4) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story (3)

5) Taika Waititi/JoJo Rabbit (-)

6) Lulu Wang/The Farewell (-)

Other Possibles: Sam Mendes/1917, Marielle Heller/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Fernando Meirelles/The Two Popes, James Mangold/Ford v. Ferrari

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE LONG LIST

93 films have been submitted for the newly named Best International Film category (formerly Best Foreign Language Films.  Of the 93, I have only identified three that played at TFF #46:

Parasite/South Korea

Pain and Glory/Spain

Beanpole/Russia

Other serious contenders that were chosen are thought to be:

Monos/Colombia

Les Miserables/France

Verdict/Philippines

The Whistlers/Romania

Atlantics/Senegal

The complete list of all 93 films is linked here from Variety.

That's your Thursday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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