50 Fall Film Possibilities 2026 / The Travails of Guadagnino

50 FALL FILM POSSIBILITIES 2026

Ezra Cubero writing for Silver Screen Express has posted his annual set of speculations about which films might go where as regards Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York.  It's an interesting take with some surprises.

Cubero had 11 films on his list last year the did make the TFF #52 lineup.

I culled the post and began by creating a list of the films that Cubero thinks have some shot at the TFF #53 lineup.  It's a lengthy list which follows below (with director listed to the right).  He has three categories..."Possible". "Could Happen" and "Nope".

Telluride "Possibles"

All of a Sudden

Behemoth!

The Black Ball+++

Coward+++

The Debut+++

Fatherland+++

Fjord

Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty!**

Josephine**

A Long Winter+++

Minotaur+++

Mouse

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York**

Paper Tiger+++

Prima Facie

Rose

Sense and Sensibility

Tender Loving Care

The Weight**

Among the "Could Be's":

Being Heumann

Bitter Christmas

Club Kid

The Dreamed Adventure

Look Back

A Place in Hell

Primetime

Saturn Return

Tangled

+++ Indicates the film's presence on MTFB's first Ten Bets for TFF #53

** Indicates a Sundance Fest film which usually mitigates a film's chances at playing Telluride.

Of note, Cubero lists Herzog's Bucking Fastard as a "No" for TFF #53.  I feel pretty good about its chances.

The complete list of 50 films can be found here.

https://silverscreenxpress.wordpress.com/2026/06/17/50-potential-films-at-the-fall-film-festivals-2026/

THE TRAVAILS OF GUADAGNINO

There was a time that I had Lucas Guadagnino's Artificial on my TFF #53 watch list.  The film was housed at Amazon-MGM and Guadagnino's past with films at Telluride (Bones and All, Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams) made it seem like a good bet.  Then it was announced the film would open in 2027 and that took it right out of my speculation.

New turns have made the film's future murky.  Reportedly Amazon-MGM has cut ties with the film and are seeking a buyer for it;  Word is that A24, NEON, Netflix and Focus Features and others have seen the film but as of this morning, no deal has been made.

If Artificial lands at any of the aforementioned distributors that could, conceivably, put it back into play for fall fests including Telluride.

The IMDb description for the films:

"Follows the confusing firing and rehiring cycle of Sam Altman at OpenAI where the board gained control of the company and removed him, and Altman still returned."

Stay tuned.

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Ten Bets for TFF #53, Vol. 1 / World of Reel on Venice Titles

TEN BETS FOR TFF #53, VOL. 1

Well, here it is (Live from the 2026 National Speech and Debate Tournament in Richmond, VA.) the first Ten Bets for 2026 for TFF #53.  I'm doing this a little differently than in the past in that I am listing the early versions of the Ten Bets in alphabetical order.  In the later going, as we get closer to The SHOW, I'll revert to the traditional ranking in order of what I think the chances are of making a TFF appearance.

So here are the first guesses (10 of them) for films at TFF #53 (in the aforementioned alphabetical order):

The Black Ball

Bucking Fastard

Coward

The Debut

Fatherland

A Long Winter

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

The Story of Documentary Film

Yellow Letters

As the weeks unfold, I'll update every Thursday as new info and rumors swirl.  Additionally, as we get closer to Labor Day, I'll also expand the list beyond a mere ten bets.

I'll remind readers that MTFB averages about six correct guesses on each year's initial Ten Bets.  I also have to tell you that there are some titles here that I'd be very excited about seeing.

Let the next few weeks tell the story! 

WORLD OF REEL ON VENICE TITLES

Jordan Ruimy has a list of possible Venice titles.  Many MTFB readers know that each year a number of films play the early part of Venice and then make a blazing trans-continental trip to the San Juans. 

From WOR's Venice speculative list, here's my take on what might make the trip:

Bucking Fastard

Here Comes the Flood

Tender Loving Care

Wild Horse Nine

Look Back

The Basics of Philosophy 

A Long Winter

Bunker

The Social Reckoning

Elon

The complete list is linked here.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/6/16/david-finchers-cliff-booth-wont-premiere-at-venice

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No Post Today

 At the National Speech Tournament in Richmond, VA.  Planning to post on Thursday, June 18th.

TFF #53 Has a Poster / The Social Reckoning Has a Trailer / The Story of Documentary Film Has a Poster / Release Date for Fatherland

 TFF #53 HAS A POSTER

The official poster for TFF #53 has been released:

BERKELEY, CA – Telluride Film Festival (September 4 – 7, 2026) is proud to announce British designer, filmmaker, and cultural curator Bella Freud as its poster artist for the 2026 Festival.

Bella Freud founded her eponymous label in 1990 and has become internationally recognized for her distinctive work across fashion, interiors, perfumery, filmmaking, and publishing. Known for her intelligent yet playful approach, Freud distills emotion and personal narrative throughout her collections, creating a singular visual language that resonates across disciplines.

Her iconic Word sweaters, including Ginsberg is God and 1970, have become contemporary classics worn by a devoted global following that includes Rosamund Pike, Rashida Jones, Alexa Chung, Kate Moss, and Rebecca Ferguson. Freud’s creative practice extends beyond fashion through collaborations with Marks & Spencer, King & McGaw, Nick Cave, and filmmaker John Malkovich, among many others.

In October 2024, Freud launched Fashion Neurosis with Bella Freud, a podcast exploring the relationship between fashion and identity through intimate and deeply personal conversations set in the atmosphere of her London sitting room. The series quickly reached number one in the UK arts podcast charts and entered the global top ten, featuring leading voices from fashion, film, music, and literature.

“The words Film Festival and Telluride are filled with promise and intrigue,” comments Freud. “Film is our modern mythology; it gives us courage and imagination. Telluride is the Shangri-La where some kind of conversation will take place that will change your life. SHOW.”

Festival director Julie Huntsinger adds, “Bella Freud possesses a rare ability to connect style, storytelling, and emotional truth with wit, intimacy, and extraordinary intelligence. Her work moves fluidly between disciplines while remaining deeply cinematic in spirit. We are thrilled to present Bella’s poster for the 53rd TFF, whose curiosity, perspective, and passion for culture brings a unique dimension to the collection.”

Each year, Telluride Film Festival welcomes artists whose work expands cultural conversation across disciplines and reflects the Festival’s enduring commitment to creativity and cinematic storytelling. Bella Freud joins a celebrated group of filmmakers, writers, musicians, and visual artists whose unique perspectives have contributed to the Festival’s ongoing history and artistic community including Daniel Clowes, Jim Dine, Maira Kalman, Ed Ruscha, Julian Schnabel, among others.

About Telluride Film Festival

The prestigious Telluride Film Festival ranks among the world’s best film festivals and is an annual gathering for film industry insiders, cinema enthusiasts, filmmakers, and critics. TFF is considered a major launching ground for the fall season’s most talked-about films. Founded in 1974, Telluride Film Festival, presented in the beautiful mountain town of Telluride, Colorado, is a four-day international educational event celebrating the art of film. Telluride Film Festival’s long-standing commitment is to join filmmakers and film connoisseurs together to experience great cinema. The exciting schedule, kept secret until just before Opening Day, consists of over three dozen filmmakers presenting their newest works, special Guest Director programs, major Tributes to guest artists, special events, and remarkable treasures from the past. Telluride Film Festival is a 501(c)(3) non-profit educational program. Festival headquarters are in Berkeley, CA.

THE SOCIAL RECKONING HAS A TRAILER

On the outer edge of the MTFB watch list is Aaron Sorkin's The Social Reckoning,  It's the sequel to The Social Network written by Sorkin and directed by David Fincher back in 2010.  The new film stars Jeremy Strong as Mark Zuckerberg.  Here's the trailer from YouTube:

The film has is set for release on Oct. 9th.

THE STORY OF DOCUMENTARY FILM HAS A POSTER

I'm not saying Mark Cousins' The Story of Documentary Film is a lock for TFF #53 but I'd be surprised if it didn't play the Fest. Here's a bit of a peek with a photo of the film's poster from Cousins' X account:

RELEASE DATE FOR FATHERLAND

Numerous sources reporting that Pawel Pawlikowski's Fatherland will release in the United States on Oct. 23rd.  That's a release window that would easily allow a screening at TFF.

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Film Fest Heads Discuss the Future / Awards Radar Updates for Best Picture and TFF Potentials

 FILM FEST HEADS DISCUSS THE FUTURE

A couple of weeks back Indiewire hosted a conversation at Cannes  featuring four film festival directors including Telluride's Julie Huntsinger.  Other fest directors included were from Sundance, Berlin and New York.  The convo was hosted by Indiewire's Anne Thompson.

The focus was the future of film festivals.  You can see the entire 44 minute video at Indiewire's website.

That video and article are linked here.

https://www.indiewire.com/news/events/film-festival-directors-discuss-future-cannes-1235195002/

AWARDS RADAR UPDATES FOR BEST PICTURE AND TFF POTENTIALS

Joey Magidson of Awards Watch has updates his Best Picture predictions as of the end of the Cannes Film Fest.  He lists 25 films in all and in their order of likelihood in terms of being nominated and winning the 2027 Oscar.  I've broken those down into various categories as it relates to the potential for a TFF #53 play.

No chance: (Because they already have premiered before Telluride): 

#2 The Odyssey

#4 Project Hail Mary

#9 Tony

#11 Disclosure Day

#14 Josephine (Sundance) 

#21 The Invite

#24 Wuthering Heights

#25 Michael

Unlikely: (for a variety of reasons):

#1 Dune: Part Three

#6 Digger

#8 The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Smallish chance at Telluride:

#3 Wild Horse Nine

#5 The Social Reckoning

#10 Saturn Return

#12 I Play Rocky

#13 Being Heumann

#16 The Uprising

#17 Behemoth!

#19 Jack of  Spades

#20 A Place in Hell

Decent chance at Telluride:

#7 Fjord

#15 Paper Tiger

#18 Clarissa

#22 All of a Sudden

#23 Artificial

 

Here are all of Magidson's predictions complete with commentary.

https://awardsradar.com/best-picture/

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Hope for Hope? / Announced Release Dates for TFF Possible Films / Yellow Letters and Berlin

HOPE FOR HOPE?

Alex Billington at First Showing.net posted that Cannes competition choice Hope will be released in the U.S. on Sept. 9th which means it's a film that could play TFF #53...but it's cutting it very tight.  TFF will conclude on  Monday, Sept. 7th.  The film made a minor splash at Cannes and ended that fest with a 6.15 rating on the Cannes-ratins.org website.

IMDb describes it:

"A mysterious discovery is made on the outskirts of the remote harbor town. The residents find themselves in a desperate fight for survival against something they have never encountered before."

The film is being distributed domestically by NEON which doesn't diminish any chance that it could play TFF.

For the moment I'm going to put it in the "possible but not probable" column.

Here's Billington's rundown of release dates throughout 2026.

https://www.firstshowing.net/schedule2026/#aug

As a matter of fact...

ANNOUNCED RELASE DATES FOR TFF POSSIBLE FILMS

Digger 10/2 (Has been announced as not planning any festival exposure)

The Social Reckoning 10/9

Wild Horse Nine 11/6

I Play Rocky 11/13

YELLOW LETTERS AND BERLIN

Mubi posted an overview of Ilker Catak's Berlin Golden Bear winner Yellow Letters on Monday which reminded me that I haven't really mentioned that I think it has a very good shot at making the TFF lineup.  Catak was at Telluride in 2023 with The Teacher's lounge which ended up with an Oscar nomination for Best International Feature.

The description for Yellow Letters goes like this:

"The marriage of Derya and Aziz is under pressure after losing their jobs because of state arbitrariness and moving to Istanbul to live with Aziz's parents. They and their 13-year-old daughter Ezgi have to redefine their way of life."

Additionally, I think the other Berlin film that might show at The SHOW is Markus Schleinzer's Rose starring the actress of the moment Sandra Huller.  Huller won the Berlin award for Best Actress.  Rose is also being distributed by MUBI.

The description for Rose:

"A woman in the early 17th century, who is disguised as a man and wants to be a good citizen at any cost."

I'm not saying these are locks for TFF #53 by any means but, I wouldn't be surprised if one or both where in the lineup on announcement morning.

The MUBI overview for Yellow Letters is linked here.

https://mubi.com/en/notebook/posts/being-powerless-but-ethical-in-erdogan-s-new-turkey-ilker-catak-s-yellow-letters

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Fatherland Has a Trailer / The Dreamed Adventure Is Acquired / Everytime Is Acquired

FATHERLAND HAS A TRAILER

Many readers of MTFB have already picked up on the notion that Pawel Pawlikowski's Fatherland is right up there as far as films I'm hoping make an appearance at TFF #53.  I was a pretty big fan of his 2018 film Cold War (Thrice Oscar nominated!).  Unfortunately I've never been able to catch his 2013 Oscar winning film Ida (Best Foreign Language Film). 

At any rate, I'm very much looking forward to Fatherland and have a good feel about its chances for Telluride.

MUBI, which has the distribution pf the film for the U.S. released a trailer for the film late last week.  here it is from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-I2-X9v-ogs

Looks impressive!

THE DREAMED ADVENTURE IS ACQUIRED

Janus films has acquired all North American rights to Valeska Grisebach‘s The Dreamed Adventure according to The Hollywood Reporter The film was a late-screened film at Cannes and won the Jury Prize.  The IMDb description of the film goes like this:

"A woman...agrees to a deal to help an old acquaintance. She follows the hero on his adventure and enters dangerous territory where she is then confronted with her own desire."

The acquisition by Janus could facilitate a play at TFF #53.  Janus isn't a house that is at every Telluride but they show up at a lot of them, especially lately:

2025: Carol & Joy

2024: All We Imagine as Light, Misericordia, Made in England: The Film of Powell and Pressburger

2023: Anselm, Totem, Orlando: My Political Biography

2022: Godland, Tori and Lokita

With a solid 6.93 compiled critical rating from Cannes-ratings.org, it seems well situated for a TFF slot.  we'll see.

Here's the link to the story from The Hollywood Reporter.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/cannes-film-prize-winner-the-dreamed-adventure-janus-deal-1236607903/

EVERYTIME IS ACQUIRED

The Hollywood Reporter also posted that Sandra Wollner's Everytime has been acquired for North America by fledgling outfit 1-2 Special. Everytime played in the Un Certain Regard section of Cannes and won the UCR Grand Prize.  Its Cannes-ratings.org compiled critics' rating was a sturdy 7.33.

Additionally, although fairly new to the game, 1-2 Special landed Harris Dickenson's Urchin at last year's TFF.

Everytime's IMDb description:

"Follows a mother, her daughter, and a teenage boy blamed for a tragic death as they travel to Tenerife together, confronting grief, blame, and forgiveness on a family holiday that never happened."

The Hollywood Reporter Story is linked here.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/cannes-un-certain-regard-winner-everytime-1-2-special-deal-1236609015/

1-2 Special also has Cannes success La Gradiva (which had this year's highest rated film per Cannes-ratins.org at 8.25).  Which makes you think it could be a candidate for Telluride as well.

Ls Gravdiva's IMDb description:

"A group of high school students sets off on a school trip to discover the ruins of Pompeii. They are seized by a sense of vertigo. They allow themselves to be overwhelmed by desire and anger, until they surrender completely."

All worth keeping an eye on.

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Neglia Takes a Stab / Black Ball Teaser / Acquisition News Out of Cannes

NEGLIA TAKES A STAB

Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture (and remember Matt was on the ground in Cannes for the first two thirds or so) posted on his X account on Monday some speculation about where all of the Cannes' Palme d'Or competition films might go during the upcoming fall film fest frenzy.  Of the 22, Matt has named 8 films that he thinks may be a part of the TFF #53 lineup...

Again, Matt's predictions: All of a Sudden, Bitter Christmas, The Black Ball, Coward, Fatherland, Fjord, Minotaur and Paper Tiger.

I'm most interested in Paper Tiger, Fatherland and Coward.  Could get interested in Fjord, Minotaur and All of a Sudden.

THE BLACK BALL TEASER

We have a teaser from The Black Ball, which we're on TFF#53 alert for.  Could it be in Telluride on Labor Day weekend?

Here it is via YouTube and MovieStar Plus:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAZ8aVMfAUw

ACQUISITION NEWS OUT OF CANNES

Deadline reports that Netflix has acquired The Black Ball for distribution and Gentle Monster as well. The pick-up doesn't either hurt a film's chances for a play at Telluride as Netflix has become a very visible presence at the fest for the last several years.

Here's the Deadline article.

https://deadline.com/2026/05/netflix-cannes-lea-seydoux-gentle-monster-1236919715/

Meanwhile, MUBI has grabbed the North American distribution rights for Kukas Dhont's Coward.  That's also a move that doesn't hurt the prospects for Coward to be at TFF.  Dhont has previously presented two films at Telluride: Girl in 2018 and Close in 2022.

Here's that story from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/news/coward-lukas-dhont-mubi-north-american-rights-1236755499/

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Prize Winners from Cannes / Stacking Up with the Recent Past / What the Ratings Suggest

PRIZE WINNERS FROM CANNES

It's all over in France.  The 79th Cannes Film Festival closed with its awards ceremony on Saturday evening and Cristian Mungiu's Fjord won the Palme d'Or.  It was Mungiu's second Palme win after having won previously for Four Years, Three Weeks, Two Days back in 2007.  That film played the Telluride Film festival.

Complete winners from the Palme d'Or official competition:

Palme d'Or: Fjord (Mungiu)

Grand Prix: Minotaur (Zvyaginastev)

Jury Prize: The Dreamed Adventure (Grisebach)

Best Direction (Tie): Fatherland (Pawelkowski) and The Black Ball (Calvo and Ambrossi)

Best Screenplay: A Man of His Time (Marre)

Best Actress (Tie): All of a Sudden (Efira and Okamoto)

Best Actor (Tie): Coward (Macchia and Campagne)

STACKING UP WITH THE RECENT PAST

For comparison's sake, here's a winner of the same categories over the last five years with eventual TFF selections indicated with an *.

2025

Palme d'Or: It Was Just an Accident (Panahi)*

Grand Prix: Sentimental Value (Trier)*

Jury Prize: (Tie) Sirat (Laxe) and The Sound of Falling (Schilinski)

Best Direction: The Secret Agent (Mendonca)*

Best Screenplay: Young Mothers (Luc and Jean-Pierre Dardennes)

Best Actress: The Little Sister (Nadia Melliti)

Best Actor (Tie): The Secret Agent (Wagner Moura)*

Special Prize: Ressurection (Gan)

2024

Palme d'Or: Anora (Baker)*

Grand Prix: All We Imagine as Light (Kapadia)*

Jury Prize: Emilia Perez (Audiard)*

Best Direction: Grand Tour (Gomes)

Best Screenplay: The Substance (Fargeat)

Best Actress: Emilia Perez (Gascon, Saldana, Gomez and Paz)*

Best Actor: Kinds of Kindness (Plemons)

Special Prize: The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Rasoulof)*

2023

Palme d'Or: Anotomy of a Fall (Triet)*

Grand Prix: The Zone of Interest (Glazer)*

Jury Prize: Fallen Leaves (Kaurismaki)*

Best Direction: The Taste of Things (Tran Ahn Hung)*

Best Screenplay: Monster (Sakamoto, dir: Kore-eda)

Best Actress: About Dry Grasses (Merve Dizdar)

Best Actor: Fallen Leaves (Koji Yakoshu)*

2022

Palme d'Or: Triangle of Sadness (Ostlund)

Grand Prix: (Tie): Stars at Noon (Denis) and Close (Dhont)*

Jury Prize: (Tie): Eo (Skolimowski) and Eight Mountains (Vandermeersch and Groeningen)

Best Direction: Decision to Leave (Chan-wook)

Best Screenplay: Boy from Heaven (Saleh)

Best Actress: Holy Spider (Amir Ebrahimi)*

Best Actor: Broker (Kang-ho)*

Special 75th Anniversary Prize: Tori and Lokita (Dardennes)*

2021

Palme d'Or: Titane (Ducournau)

Grand Prix: (Tie): Compartment  No. 6 (Kuosmanen) and A Hero (Farhadi)*

Jury Prize: (Tie): Ahed's Knee (Lapid) and Memoria (Weerasethakul)

Best Direction: Annette (Carax)

Best Screenplay: Drive My Car (Hamaguchi)

Best Actress: The Worst Person in the World (Renate Reinsve)

Best Actor: Nitram (Caleb Landry Jones)

As you can see, winning the Plame d'Or isn't a guarantee that a film will play at TFF although the last three have.

As to the rest of the categories, here's where they stand over the five years with winners then being a part of TFF:

Grand Prix: 5 (it's the most solid category in terms of a Cannes/Telluride connection).

Jury Prize: 2

Director: 2

Screenplay: 0

Actress: 2

Actor: 3

Special Prizes: 2

So your best odds by this metric favor 2026 Grand Prix winner Minotaur.

Next best are for Palme winners and Best Actor which would point toward: Fjord and Coward.

After that it gets very murky...

WHAT THE RATINGS SUGGEST

Taking a look at Cannes results over the last five years that have made the connection between Cannes and Telluride is, at the least interesting, and may be instructive as to anticipating what films might make that journey this year.

First, the average number of films that do the Telluride/Cannes two step seems to have increased over the past five years.  Here's the number that have made it since 2021:

2021-7

2022-9

2023-10

2024-8

2025-9

That averages out to 8.6 films each year.

Now, using the ratings from Cannes-ratings.org, where did these 43 films land on their 10point scale?

2021:

A Hero 7.30

Red Rocket 7.30

The French Dispatch 7.11

Bergman Island 7.09

The Velvet Underground 6.83

Cow 6.80

Unclenching the Fists 6.24

2022:

The Pupils 8.37

Aftersun 8.17

Close 7.76

Broker 7.47

Godland 7.38

One Fine Morning 7.34

Armageddon Time 6.90

Holy Spider 6.70

Tori and Lokita 6.32

2023:

The Zone of Interest 8.19

Perfect Days 7.91

Anatomy of a Fall 7.90

Fallen Leaves 7.46

La Chimera 7.46

The Taste of Things 7.01

Occupied City 6.97

Anselm 6.41

Little Girl Blue 6.21

Room 999 (no ratings found)

2024:

Anora 8.35

Misericordia 7.47

Bird 7.45

Emilia Perez 7.42

All We Imagine as Light 7.02

The Apprentice 6.94

Santosh 6.07

2025:

Sentimental Value 8.04

It Was Just an Accident 7.75

Pillion 7.30

Nouvelle Vague 7.23

Urchin 7.15

A Private Life 6.99

Mastermind 6.29

The History of Sound 5.81

43 films in all with 2025's The History of Sound being the lowest rated film to be picked up of any of the 43 by TFF.

The vast majority of films clear the 6.5 bar.  That's true for 35 of he 43 films listed above.  So what do this year's ratings signal, if anything?

Using the 6.5 or above metric and also being a little sly about films that are on the MTFB watch list, here's some takeaways:

32 films in all sections of Cannes #79 were above the 6.5 threshold. Among them, here are some films that I have on the MTFB watch list and where they are on the Cannes-ratings.org list:

#7) All of a Sudden 7.39

#10) Coward 7.28

#11) Minotaur 7.03

#21) Fjord 6.69

Other films that made enough of a splash that could earn them spots on the MTFB Watch List:

#1 Club Kid 8.37

#13 The Dreamed Adventure 6.94

#15 The Black Ball 6.91

#24 Avedon 6.50

#31 Clarissa 6.43

MTFB Watch list films that may have taken a hit:

#40 Fatherland 6.15

#42 Paper Tiger 6.15

#43 Hope 6.14

Off the top 50 grid so...you know...

Moulin 5.73

Gentle Monster 4.66

Sheep in the Box 4.53

Parallel Tales 4.22

The Unknown 4.14

Draw your own conclusions...the first official "Ten Bets" for TFF #53 drops on June18th.

More on Thursday!

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SPECIAL SATURDAY POST: FINAL CRITICAL CHECK-IN BEFORE CANNES AWARDS

FINAL CRITICAL CHECK-IN BEFORE CANNES AWARDS

Updated as of this morning at 10:30 am (EST) for all 22 Palme competition tiles

IONCINEMA (5 point scale)

1) Fatherland 3.7

1) Fjord 3.7

1) Coward 3.7

4) Minotaur 3.5

5) A Man of His Time 3.4

5) The Man I Love 3.4

7) All of a Sudden 3.3

8) Paper Tiger 3.2

8) The Beloved 3.2

10) Hope 3.2

11) Naji Notes 2.8

11) The Black Ball 2.8

11) A Woman's Life 2.8

14) Bitter Christmas 2.7

14) Moulin 2.7

16) Gentle Monster 2.6

16) Another Day 2.6

18) The Unknown 2.4

18) Parallel Tales 2.4

20) Sheep in the Box 2.2

Note: Ioncinema did not have ratings this morning for The Dreamed Adventure or The Birthday Party.

SCREEN DAILY (4 point scale)

1) Fatherland 3.3

2) Minotaur 3.2

3) All of a Sudden 3.1

3) The Dreamed Adventure 3.1

5) Paper Tiger 2.8

5) A Man of His Time 2.8

5) Hope 2.8

8) Fjord 2.5

8) Naji Notes 2.5

10) The Man I Love 2.4

11) Bitter Christmas 2.2

12) The Black Ball 2.1

13) Coward 2.0

13) The Beloved 2.0

15) A Woman's Life 1.9

15) Moulin 1.9

15)The Unknown 1.9

18) Gentle Monster 1.8

19) Another Day 1.7

19) Parallel Lives 1.7

21) Sheep in the Box 1.3

22) The Birthday Party 1.1

INTERNATIONAL CINEPHILE SOCIETY (4 point scale)

1) Paper Tiger 3.69

2) Fatherland 3.58

2) A Man of His Time 3.54

4) The Man I Love 3.50

5) All of a Sudden 3.38

6) Minotaur 3.23

7) The Unknown 3.19

8)The Dreamed Adventure 3.05

9) Coward 3.00

9) Fjord 3.00

11) Bitter Christmas 2.96

12) Moulin 2.75

13) Hope 2.71

14) A Woman's Life 2.64

15) Naji Notes 2.62

16) The Birthday Party 2.55

17) The Beloved 2.54

18) Gentle Monster 2.45

18) Another Day 2.45

20) The Black Ball 2.23

21) Sheep in the Box 2.04

22) Parallel Tales 1.69

CANNES-RATINGS.ORG (10 point scale)

1) Bitter Christmas 7.46

2) Coward 7.43

3) All of a Sudden 7.36

4) Minotaur 6.99

5) The Black Ball 6.94

6) The Dreamed Adventure 6.72

7) Fjord 6.64

8) The Beloved 6.49

9) A Man of His Time 6.4

10) Another Day 6.23

11) Paper Tiger 6.14

12) Hope 6.09

13) Fatherland 6.08

14) A Woman's Life 5.56

15) Moulin 5.35

16) The Man I Love 5.28

17) Naji Notes 6.27

18) Gentle Monster 4.73

19) Sheep in the Box 4.44

20) Parallel Tales 4.17

21) The Unknown 4.13

22) The Birthday Party 3.99

and the MTFB "touch" the combination from all four sources.

1) Fatherland 13.62

2)  All of a Sudden 13.46

3) Minotaur 13.45

4) A Man of His Time 12.94

5) Paper Tiger 12.76

6) The Dreamed Adventure 12.68

7) Fjord 12.52

8) Coward 12.42

9) The Man I Love 11.94

10) Hope 11.76

11) Bitter Christmas 11.59

12) The Beloved 10.99

13) The Black Ball 10.60

14) Naji Notes 10.56

15) A Woman's Life 10.12

16) Moulin 10.03

17) Another Day 9.87

18) The Unknown 9.56

19) Gentle Monster 9.22

20) Parallel Tales 7.88

21) Sheep in the Box 7.76

22) The Birthday Party 5.65

The Kalshi line for the Plame d'Or as of 10:30am (EST): Minotaur, All of a Sudden, Fatherland.  Big spike for Minotaur in the past few hours.

SPECIAL FRIDAY UPDATE: CANNES AND THE CRITICS

SPECIAL FRIDAY UPDATE: CANNES AND THE CRITICS

With the awards now only hours away in France. MTFB is updating our window on the critical response there.

Additional titles have screened and continued adding of critics' responses puts us with 12 films we're including in our analysis of what's what at Cannes

Here's the rundown on each film from each critical accumulator I'm following: Ioncinema, Screen Daily, The International Cinephile Society and Cannes-ratings.org.

IONCINEMA (5 point scale)

1) Fatherland 3.7

1) Fjord 3.7

1) Coward 3.7

4) Minotaur 3.5

5) A Man of His Time 3.4

5) The Man I Love 3.4

7) All of a Sudden 3.3

8) Paper Tiger 3.2

8) The Beloved 3.2

10) Hope 3.2

11) Bitter Christmas 3.0

12) The Black Ball 2.8

SCREEN DAILY (4 point scale)

1) Fatherland 3.3

2) Minotaur 3.2

3) All of a Sudden 3.1

4) Paper Tiger 2.8

4) Hope 2.8

4) A Man of His Time 2.8

7) Fjord 2.5

8) Bitter Christmas 2.2

9) The Man I Love 2.1

9) The Black Ball 2.8

11)Coward 2.0

11) The Beloved 2.0

INTERNATIONAL CINEPHILE SOCIETY (4 point scale)

1) Paper Tiger 3.69

2) Fatherland 3.54

2) A Man of His Time 3.54

4) The Man I Love 3.50

5) All of a Sudden 3.38

6) Minotaur 3.23

7) Coward 3.06

8) Bitter Christmas 3.00

9) Fjord 2.96

10) Hope 2.71

11) The Beloved 2.54

12) The Black Ball 2.05

CANNES-RATINGS.ORG (10 point scale)

1) The Black Ball 8.62

2) Coward 7.80

3) Bitter Christmas 7.48

4) All of a Sudden 7.27

5) Minotaur 7.00

6) Fjord 6.81

7) The Beloved 6.49

8) Hope 6.37

9) A Man of His Time 6.33

10) Fatherland 6.12

11) Paper Tiger 6.07

12) The Man I Love 5.44

and the MTFB "touch" the combination from all four sources*.

1) Fatherland 13.60

2) Minotaur 13.42

2)  All of a Sudden 13.42

4) A Man of His Time 12.91

5) Paper Tiger 12.73

6) Coward 12.66

7) Fjord 12.57

8) Bitter Christmas 11.94

9) Hope 11.90

10) The Man I Love 11.72

11) The Black Ball 11.26

12) The Beloved 10.99

* Ratings have been balanced for each source.

Finally the Kalshi line this morning for the Palme d'Or have All of a Sudden out front with The Black Ball at #2 and Fatherland at #3.

The critics are all over the place with various groups placing films at wildly divergent spots within this top 12.  Look again at the combined ratings with the addition of what spot they're at in each of the four groups.  It's crazily inconsistent:

1) Fatherland 13.60 [1-1-2-10]

2) Minotaur 13.42 [4-2-6-5]

2)  All of a Sudden 13.42 [7-3-5-4]

4) A Man of His Time 12.91 [5-4-2-9]

5) Paper Tiger 12.73 [8-4-1-11]

6) Coward 12.66 [1-11-7-2]

7) Fjord 12.57 [1-7-9-6]

8) Bitter Christmas 11.94 [11-8-8-3]

9) Hope 11.90 [10-4-10-8]

10) The Man I Love 11.72 [5-9-4-12]

11) The Black Ball 11.26 [12-9-12-1]

12) The Beloved 10.99 [8-11-11-7]

My gut leans toward All of a Sudden.

A Tough week for Farhadi (Parallel Tales), Kruetzer (Gentle Monster), Kore-eda (Sheep in the Box), Harari (The Unknown) and Nemes (Moulin).

Source links:

Ioncinema

https://www.ioncinema.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/2026-cannes-grid-bitter-christmas.jpg

Screen Daily

https://www.screendaily.com/cannes-jury-grid

International Cinephile Society

https://icsfilm.org/cannes-ics-grid/cannes-2026-ics-press-industry-panel/

Cannes-ratings.org

https://cannes-ratings.org/

SPECIAL: Cannes Critics' Update

 SPECIAL: CANNES CRITICS UPDATE-THURSDAY

As an addendum to today's regular post I am updating the critics' charts with the most recently available information.

We're looking what seem to be the eight critical favorites from the Palme d'Or competition.  Each of them are somewhere on the MTFB radar as possible titles for TFF #53.  Currently, the charts are missing sufficient data on 4-5 films (keep an eye on the critical response to Lukas Dhont's Coward)  Award winners will be announced on Saturday.

Here's the rundown on each film from each critical accumulator I'm following: Ioncinema, Screen Daily, The International Cinephile Society and Cannes-ratings.org.

IONCINEMA (5 point scale)

1) Fatherland 3.7

1) Fjord 3.7

3) Minotaur 3.5

4) All of a Sudden 3.3

5) Paper Tiger 3.2

5) The Beloved 3.2

5) Hope 3.2

8) Bitter Christmas 2.9

SCREEN DAILY (4 point scale)

1) Fatherland 3.3

2) Minotaur 3.2

3) All of a Sudden 3.1

4) Paper Tiger 2.8

4) Hope 2.8

6) Fjord 2,5

7) Bitter Christmas 2.2

8) The Beloved 2.0

INTERNATIONAL CINEPHILE SOCIETY (4 point scale)

1) Paper Tiger 3.69

2) Fatherland 3.54

3) All of a Sudden 3.38

4) Minotaur 3.23

5) Bitter Christmas 3.04

6) Fjord 2.82

7) Hope 2.71

8) The Beloved 2.54

CANNES-RATINGS.ORG (10 point scale)

1) Bitter Christmas 7.61

2) Minotaur 7.38

3) All of a Sudden 6.86

4) Fjord 6.69

5) The Beloved 6.51

5) Hope 6.51

7) Fatherland 6.03

8) Paper Tiger 6.02

and the MTFB "touch" the combination from all four sources*.

1) Minotaur 13.62

2) Fatherland 13.56

3) All of a Sudden 13.21

4) Paper Tiger 12.70

5) Fjord 12.37

6) Bitter Christmas 12.00

7) Hope 11.95

8) The Beloved

* Ratings have been balanced for each source.

Finally the Kalshi line this morning for the Palme d'Or have All of a sudden and Minotaur in a dead heat closely followed by Fatherland.

Source links:

Ioncinema

https://www.ioncinema.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/2026-cannes-grid-bitter-christmas.jpg

Screen Daily

https://www.screendaily.com/cannes-jury-grid

International Cinephile Society

https://icsfilm.org/cannes-ics-grid/cannes-2026-ics-press-industry-panel/

Cannes-ratings.org

https://cannes-ratings.org/

Cannes Continues / Some Buzz from Eisenberg / Mike Leigh Has a Title

 CANNES CONTINUES

The 79th Cannes Film Fest has passed its halfway mark and is barreling toward its conclusion this weekend. Taking a look at the metrics from Screen Daily, Ioncinema and Cannes-ratings.org, here are the films that seem to be at the forefront critically (*** indicates that the film is on my TFF watch list):

From Screen Daily (films in Palme competition with a better than 2.5 rating on a four point scale):

1) Fatherland 3.3***

2) All of a Sudden 3.1***

3) Paper Tiger 2.8***

3) Hope 2.8***

5) Naji Notes 2.5

The complete Screen Daily chart is linked here.

https://edition.pagesuite-professional.co.uk/html5/reader/production/default.aspx?pubname=&edid=7d45952f-7ff1-4ba7-b98c-78b6cf24da1e

From Ioncinema (films in Palme competition with a better than 3.0 rating on a five point scale):

1) Fatherland 3.7***

2) Fjord 3.5***

3) All of a Sudden 3.3***

4) Paper Tiger 3.2***

4) The Beloved 3.2

6) Hope 3.1***

The complete Ioncinema grid is linked here.

https://www.ioncinema.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/2026-cannes-grid-fjord.jpg

From Cannes-ratings.org (films in Palme competition with a better than 7.0 rating on a 10 point scale and a minimum of 8 reviews):

1) Fjord 7.81***

2) Bitter Christmas 7.53***

3) All of a Sudden 7.24***

3) The Beloved 7.24

Of special note is the hugely favorable critical reception to Club Kid from the Un Certain Regard section at Cannes.  It has a stellar 8.43 rating to lead all films in any section of the fest.  News broke on Tuesday that the film had been picked up for U.S. distribution by A24 after a bidding war that included: Netflix, Searchlight, Focus Features and MUBI according to this story from Variety.

The critical reception, the players vying for the film and the ultimate winning bid is enough to make me pay attention to it as a possible TFF selection.   Stay tuned.

Club Kid is a first feature for director/writer Jordan Firstman. .  The IMDb description is:

"A washed-up New York party promoter is forced to turn his life around when an unexpected visitor arrives."

The complete set of ratings from Cannes-ratins.org is linked here.

https://cannes-ratings.org/

According to Kalshi  (as of yesterday), Minotaur has the best odds to win the Palme followed by All of a Sudden and Fatherland.

SOME BUZZ FOR EISENBERG

Spooking around the interwebs yesterday I came across the news that what has been referred to as "The Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Musical Comedy now has an actual title: No One Cares.  It also seems that the film has been screened at Cannes and it seems that the screening went well.  So says World of Reel. 

WOR describes the film as follows:

"Starring Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti, with Eisenberg also appearing briefly, “No One Cares” is set in “the high-stakes world of community theater,” and follows a shy woman (Moore) who is unexpectedly cast in a local production of an original musical."

Giamatti plays the director of the community theater production.  I think it sounds great and I have had it on my TFF #53 watch list for some time mostly because Eisenberg screened A Real Pain at TFF in 2024.  That seemed to work out fairly well.  The film is being distributed by A24 which doesn't hurt.  Additionally WOR writes:

"A24 is positioning the film for a fall premiere, potentially at the Telluride Film Festival and then at the Toronto International Film Festival. An Oscar campaign will likely be mounted for all key players involved."

MIKE LEIGH HAS A TITLE

Another "Untitled Project" has an actual title and that's the next film from director Mike Leigh.  The name: Tender Loving Care.  Past that we know almost nothing about the project.  You can likely glean a bit of info from what IMDb still lists as "Untitled 2025 Mike Leigh Project"  which we assume is the same thing as the newly christened Tender Loving Care.

That IMDb info is linked here.

https://pro.imdb.com/title/tt35638092/details

The IMDb entry reveals that Bleeker Street is the U.S. distributor.

Considering Leigh's frequent stops at TFF over the years (Secrets and Lies, Happy-Go-Lucky, Another Year and others) you have to believe there's a decent chance that if it's ready, Tender Loving Care has a decent shot to play TFF #53.

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Early Returns from Cannes / Cousins New Doc Gets Distribution / Pics for Gentle Monster

EARLY RETURNS FROM CANNES

Though we're only through the first few days of the Cannes International Film Festival, we're already seeing the emergence of some potential prize-winners for the fest.  Here's the early version of the Screen Daily panel of critics:

SCREEN DAILY

As you can see the early films making a mark here are Pawlikowskis' Fatherland and Hamaguchi's all of a Sudden.  Both films have been fairly consistently on the various lists I have posted since the Oscar ceremony and before.  Meanwhile. Ioncinema's chart echoes the status of both Father land and All of a Sudden:

Meanwhile, we're awaiting a sufficient number of reviews to be accumulated at Cannes-ratings.org to truly make any assumption regarding where films are truly standing withe regard to that metric.

Couple of other notes here.  Both Farhadi's Parallel Tales, Kore-eda's Sheep in a Box and Kruetzer's Gentle Monster seem on shaky ground as regards prizes at Cannes and  perhaps as contenders for TFF #53.

COUSINS NEW DOCUMENTARY (ABOUT DOCUMENTARIES) GETS DISTRIBUTION

Telluride regular Marc Cousins (The Story of Film, A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things among several others) has garnered distribution for his next project: The Story of Documentary Film)  Kino Lorber has nabbed the North American rights for the 16 part doc about docs.

The question as to its possible appearance at Telluride rises from its inclusion at Sundance earlier this year.  My best guess is that owing to Cousins frequent presence at TFF and his current position as a Resident Curator and his past position on the fest's Board of Advisors. as well as being a TFF Tributee in 2022...my bet is we get some of the 16 episodes.

The story reagrding the Kino Lober acquisition is linked here from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/global/kino-lorber-mark-cousins-the-story-of-documentary-film-1236751389/

PICS FROM GENTLE MONSTER

Via The Playlist's 27 Most Anticipated Films from Cannes'

https://theplaylist.net/2026-cannes-film-festival-27-most-anticipated-films-20260511

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Cannes Is On / Awards Watch Oscar Predictions and TFF Clues / Bitter Christmas Teaser and Poster / Pics of Possibles from Cannes

CANNES IS ON

The 79th Cannes Film Festival is officially underway in France.  As is our habit here at MTFB, we will monitor the fest for the next two weeks looking at buzz, critical reception and ultimately prize winners to assess prospects for films to do the Cannes/Telluride Two Step.  

As I have often mentioned, the link between the two film fests is quite strong with an average of 7ish or so films playing each year, first at Cannes and then later at Telluride.

I also tend to look at Cannes-ratings.org, Ioncinema and Screen daily for collections of critical responses.  Last year nine films made the trans-Atlantic leap from France to Colorado.  Here's where they stood critically at Cannes based on the Cannes-ratings.org site's 10 point system:

Sentimental Value 8.04

It Was Just an Accident 7.75

Pillion 7.30

Nouvelle Vague 7.23

Urchin 7.15

The Secret Agent 6.99

Mastermind 6.29

A Private Life 5.90

The History of Sound 5.31

It's too early in the fest to start keeping tabs on the critical reactions but we may be able to begin to evaluate some of that in Monday's post.

AWARDS WATCH AND TFF CLUES

Erik Anderson has begun his annual updating list of predictions for Oscar '27 and I'm going through them for possible TFF titles.  among the films that he lists as Best Picture possibilities, these are the ones that look most Telluride-friendly:

Fjord

Wild Horse Nine

Fatherland

The Social Reckoning

All of a Sudden

Sense and Sensibility

Behemoth!

Being Heumann

Coward

Hope

Jack of Spades

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Saturn Return

Sweetsick

No One Cares (Jesse Eisenberg musical)

The complete set of predictions from Awards Watch are linked here.

https://awardswatch.com/2027-oscar-predictions-best-picture-and-best-director-may/

BITTER CHRISTMAS TEASER AND POSTER

Pedro Almodovar's Bitter Christmas is playing Cannes...and could be a Telluride player as well.  In conjunction with its bow at Cannes, there is a poster and a teaser. Here they be:

And the teaser from Sony Pictures Classics and YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PgPkSpuYpY&t=2s

PICS FROM POSSIBLES FROM CANNES:

***From Vanity Fair:  Paper Tiger:

***From The Hollywood Reporter: Coward:

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