Ten (21) Bets #8 / New Posters: Human Flow and Film Stars / Maybe There Is Another Film from Venice?

It's Friday, August 18, 2017...13 days until The SHOW...

TEN (21) BETS #8

Here's your weekly update about expectations for films at TFF #44.

Last Week's Ten (actually 16) Bets were:

1) Downsizing
2) Wonderstruck
3) The Shape of Water
4) Battle of the Sexes
5) Darkest Hour
6) Loving Vincent
7) Hostiles
8) Lady Bird
9) A Fantastic Woman
10) The Rider
11) Visages/Villages
12) First They Killed My Father
13) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
14) The Other Side of Hope
15) Wormwood
16) Before We Vanish

This week's 21 Bets are:

1) Downsizing
2) Wonderstruck
3) The Shape of Water
4) Battle of the Sexes
5) Darkest Hour
6) Loving Vincent
7) Hostiles
8) Lady Bird
9) A Fantastic Woman
10) The Rider
11) Visages/Villages
12) First They Killed My Father
13) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
14) The Other Side of Hope
15) Wormwood
16) Before We Vanish

17) Lean on Pete

18) First Reformed

19) Loveless

20) Foxtrot

21) The Insult

Based on past festivals there might be somewhere between five and ten further films/programs that we haven't figured out as yet.  The best chances to be added, I think, are You Were Never Really Here, L'amant Double and some of Ken Burns' Vietnam documentary.

NEW POSTERS: HUMAN FLOW AND FILM STARS

We had our first glimpses of posters from both Paul McGuigan's Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool as well as Ai Weiwei's Human Flow appear yesterday.  Weiwei also tweeted that a Human Flow trailer should be expected today.  Here are the posters:

Human Flow:

Film Stars:

MAYBE THERE IS ANOTHER FILM FROM VENICE?


Thanks go out to eagle-eyed Kamil Ahsan who communicated with me yesterday to ask about the chances of Woodshock playing at Telluride.  I had all but dismissed it as Venice has scheduled it to play on Sept. 4th.  Additionally,  Variety, Entertainment Weekly and The Hollywood Reporter have all reported that Errol Morris' Wormwood is the only non-World Premiere at Venice.

But Kamil pointed me to this tweet from the official Woodshock film account that clearly says that the film will be a European Premiere at Venice.

This could mean that the film from the Muleavey sisters will drop early in the Telluride schedule and then move to Venice.  

So something has to give here.  It'll be interesting to see what happens but for those looking forward to catching Woodshock at TFF #44 there seems to be a glimmer of hope.

That's the MTFB for this Friday, Aug. 18th.  Have a great weekend!


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More Musings on Toronto's Latest / Telluride's 20th Festival / Battle Goes to Britain

It's Thursday, August 17th...14 days until The SHOW!


MORE MUSINGS ON TORONTO'S LATEST

Tuesday, the Toronto International Film Festival announced what Indiewire said was their final set of films for their 2017 edition and as a result we got more indications about films that are likely to play at Telluride over Labor Day weekend.

Based on their categorization as Canadian Premieres it seems that we can probably add five films to the TFF #44 list:

First Reformed from Paul Schrader
Foxtrot from Samuel Maoz
The Insult from Ziad Doueiri
Lean on Pete from Andrew Haigh
Loveless from Andrey Zvyagintsev

The new info also seems to confirm that The Other Side of Hope and Visages/Villages will play Telluride.

Some films that I have been tracking fell by the wayside if their premiere status is accurate including:

Chappaquiddick
Happy End
Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House
Molly's Game
Redoubtable

I was particularly dismayed that Aaron Sorkin's Molly's Game  won't be at T-ride and still, despite its modest response at Cannes, I was surprised that Michael Haneke's Happy End will not be at TFF #44.

Our "possible" film list has gotten much smaller now:

The Death and Life of John F. Donovan
Final Portrait
L'amant Double
Marshall
Mary Magdalene
Our Souls at Night
The Snowman
Wonder
You Were never Really Here


Form this list perhaps one or two films might still show up on Telluride's program and for my money the two that are most likely are You Were Never Really Here and L'amant Double.

Finally, I'm feeling a little better as we get down to this last two weeks before the fest.  after a couple of years where my initial guesse haven't been terribly prescient, it looks like I was better this year. My success level with that first Ten Bets in the past few years has been:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10

Yes.  3 of 10 last year.  My average over that time span was naming 5.5 films correctly that would eventually make the TFF lineup.

This year is better.  Here's this year's first Ten Bets from back on June 30th with what appear to be correct guesses are marked with ***:

1) Loveless***
2) A Fantastic Woman***
3) Wonderstruck***
4) Visages/Villages***
5) The Florida Project
6) Downsizing***
7) You Were Never Really Here
8) 120 BPM
9) The Rider***
10) Battle of the Sexes***

7 of 10 with two misses: The Florida Project and 120 BPM

You Were Never Really There is still up in the air.  I'm of a mind that it will play TFF #44.

Additionally, I had Lean on Pete and Loving Vincent in the list of other possibles.  So maybe I'm getting back to a bit more wisdom.

TELLURIDE'S 20TH FESTIVAL

Here's another installment in my ongoing section of revisiting the history of the Telluride Film Festival.  Today, as we continue to go back in time, we have a look at TFF #20 which ran Sept. 3-6, 1993.

Guest Director: John Boorman

Tributes: Ken Loach, Jennifer Jason Leigh and John Alton

SHOWS:

Abraham's Valley
The Ark
Blue (Jarman)
Blue (Kieslowski)
Bonne Chance
Border Incident
The Boys of St. Vincent
Chasing Butterflies
Clean, Shaven
Double Bind
Faraway, So Close
Farewell My Concubine
Fear and Desire
Flight of the Innocent
Gardiens de Phare
The Great Adventure
The Joy Luck Club
Kind of Blue
L627
The Last Stop
Love and Human Remains
Make Way For Tomorrow
Naked
The Piano
Point Blank
Raining Stones
Raw Deal
The Social Contract
Starting Place
Stella Polaris
Suture
Sylvester
T-Men
Time Has No Name
Upstage
The Wonderful, Horrible Life of Leni Riefenstahl

Guests:

Joan Chen
Henry Czerny
Darryl Hannah
Leo McGarey
Michael Stipe
Amy Tan
Bertrand Tavernier
David Thewlis
Wayne Wang
Wim Wenders

Among the Filmmakers of Tomorrow participants was Darryl Hannah with her short The Last Supper.



BATTLE GOES TO BRITAIN

The BFI/London Film Fest has announced that the American Express Gala this year will be the European Premiere of Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris' Battle of the Sexes starring Emma Stone and Steve Carrel.  I am fully expecting that Battle of the Sexes will be screening at TFF #44 in a couple of weeks.

The film follows the true story of the famed 1973 tennis match between Billie Jean King (Stone) and Bobby Riggs (Carrel).  The film also stars Andrea Riseborough, Elisabeth Shue, Alan Cumming and Sarah Silverman.

Here's the latest trailer for the film from YouTube:

Battle of the Sexes is distributed by Fox Searchlight and will be released domestically on Sept. 22nd.

Linked here is coverage from:

Deadline

Variety

The Hollywood Reporter

That's your MTFB for Thursday.  More tomorrow including TWENTY BETS for TFF #44.

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LATE BREAKING: Toronto Titles Today Offer New Telluride Clues

LATE BREAKING: TORONTO TITLES TODAY OFFER NEW TELLURIDE CLUES


Toronto's purported final announcement of titles today sheds light on films that we think are now newly added to our list of T-ride screenings or confirms others that we thought were going or reveals titles that we thought might play that will not.

TIFF announced further Galas, Special Presentations, Masters and Contemporary World Cinema titles earlier today.

Here's what we think we've learned based on the premiere status of the films named:

New films that appear headed to Telluride:

Foxtrot
Lean on Pete
The Insult
First Reformed
Loveless

Films that appear to be further confirmed for Telluride:

The Other Side of Hope
Visages/Villages

Films that WILL NOT BE PLAYING TELLURIDE:

Chappaquiddick
Molly's Game (disppointed about this)
Mark Felt-The Man Who Brought Down the White House
Redoubtable
Happy End

And films confirmed out that we already thought were out:

The Leisure Seeker
The Florida Project


More to come on Thursday...

Indiewire's Hot 25 Fall Films / Molly's Game Teaser and Trailer? / A Look at Lady Bird / The New Guy and Telluride / Late Breaking: Lean on Pete

Hello on this Tuesday, Aug. 15th...16 days until TFF #44...

INDIEWIRE'S HOT 25 FALL FILMS

Indiewire put up a new post yesterday outlining 25 Indie films it is interested in that are scheduled for release between now and the end of the year.  As you might expect, a number of titles that we're already thinking will play Telluride are on the list and there are also additional titles that could still make the TFF #44 lineup.

The films included that I think are already set for The SHOW are:

Battle of the Sexes
Wonderstruck
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water

and other films that could still make the lineup:

Marshall
Molly's Game
Mary Magdalene
Happy End

The complete Indiewire list can be found here.


MOLLY'S GAME TEASER AND TRAILER?


We got a glimpse of Aaron Sorkin's directorial debut yesterday with the release of a teaser for Molly's Game starring Jessica Chastain.  The film is also expected to drop a full trailer today (per Chastain on Twitter).

Here's the teaser from YouTube:

I'm still crossing my fingers that this somehow makes the TFF program.

Molly's Game is being distributed by STX Entertainment and is set for release on Nov. 22.

I kind of think it may well be announced as a part of Toronto's program this week.  Often the release of teasers. trailers and images is a pre-cursor for that.

Here's coverage of the teaser release from The Playlist .

A LOOK AT LADY BIRD

A couple of images were released from Greta Gerwig's directing debut yesterday.  Lady Bird stars Saoirse Ronan and is set for release from A24 on Nov. 10th.

Here from Indiewire and The Film Stage are those two images:

Lady Bord currently sits at the #8 spot on my latest iteration of the Ten Bets for Telluride list.

WILL THE NEW GUY MAKE THE TREK TO TELLURIDE?

John Bailey is the newly elected president of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. AMPAS and Telluride have had a very tight relationship for a good long while.  I have always found it a hoot to see the AMPAS prez in T-ride over the Labor Day weekend having lay my eyes on booth Sid Ganis and Cheyl Boone Issacs over the years.  So I am wondering if Mr. Bailey, a cinematographer by trade (A Walk in the Woods, The Way Way Back, The Kid Stays in the Picture), joins us in a couple of weeks.  

Hope so!

 LATE BREAKING: LEAN ON PETE

Late last night the buzz was that A24 is bumping Andrew Haigh's Lean on Pete to a 2018 release date which makes a Telluride screening less likely.  Stay Tuned.

More later...

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More About the Venice Schedule / Looks at Downsizing and Molly's Game

Welcome to Monday, August 14th.  17 days left until TFF #44...


MORE ABOUT THE VENICE SCHEDULE

If you missed it on Friday, the Venice Film Festival released its actual screening schedule, which, as many of you know, can be parsed for clues about the potential films that may play both there and at Telluride.

Friday's schedule release came after my original post for the day and so my update which included that missed some depth and nuance that I can get to today.

To reiterate, Films that are scheduled early enough or late in enough for their initial screening have demonstrably then had enough tie to play at both festivals.  Past fests have shown that.  Adding in what we think we already know from the revelations primarily from New York and Toronto allows some informed conjecture.

So starting with those premises we can include and exclude films from our list of TFF possibles.

I divide Venice into three "windows" to do this.  "Early", "Middle" and "Late".  Films that land in the "Early" window could have the chance to play Venice and then come to Telluride.  This year Venice's "Early" window in Aug. 29-Sept. 1...this is all arbitrary on my part.  It's my best guess that Sept. 1 is the latest a film could play in Italy and still be a part of T-ride.  The "Middle" window runs Sept. 2-4-or, in other words, the end of TFF.  Films that debut here are off the TFF table.  The "Late" Segment runs from Sept. 5-9.  Films that bow at Venice during this stretch could play Telluride and then go to Venice.

As I write this I believe that we have a relatively good idea of four films that will play Telluride and also play Venice: Downsizing, The Shape of Water and Human Flow all in Venice's "Early" period and Wormwood in its "Late" period.

Other films of interest in the "Early" period: First Reformed, The Devil and Father Amorth, Lean on Pete and Our Souls at Night.  Other films of interest in the "Late" period: Sweet Country and Mektoub My Love.

Films from the "Middle" period that we're already thinking will NOT play Telluride (another factoid that bolsters this set of guesses): Suburbicon, Victoria and Abdul, Ex Libris: The New York Public Library and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri.  Darren Aronofsky's mother! which we also think will not play at T-ride is set to bow on Sept. 5.

Films of Telluride interest that landed in the "Middle" section at Venice and thereby would seem to be no-go now for The SHOW: The Leisure Seeker, Foxtrot, The Private Life of a Mad Woman and Woodshock.

Finally add in a couple of clues that Venice artistic director Alberto Barbera has been reported as saying.  First, that the two fests will share seven or eight titles and second that the only non-World Premiere at Venice is Errol Morris' Wormwood.

Since we already think we know of four films that leaves three of four to come from the "Early" or "Late" periods.

I think both Sweet Country and Mektoub My Love are eliminated as the comment about Wormwood would indicate that both of these films will be World Preeming that late in the Venice lineup. That means  the three to four additional films would come from the "Early" window.

In order, then, here are my best guesses as to the chances of those four films to make the trip:

1) First Reformed
2) Lean on Pete
3) Our Souls at Night
4) The Devil and Father Amorth

In fairness, Hafsteinn Gunnar Sigurdsson's Under the Tree could also be in play for a Telluride spot as it plays in the "Early" segment as well and has, to the best of my knowledge, not been programmed at this point in another festival in a way that would disqualify it from TFF #44 consideration. However, the other films have, for various reasons, a more pronounced Telluride profile.



LOOKS AT DOWNSIZING AND MOLLY'S GAME


Entertainment Weekly's fall film preview issue landed Friday and EW put a couple of their interviews online which included first looks at both Alexander Payne's Downsizing and Aaron Sorkin's Molly's Game.

I think Downsizing is a Telluride lock.  Molly's Game is more of a wish list item at the moment.

The pic from Downsizing:

And from Molly's Game:

The online interviews for the accompanying stories are from Alexander Payne here and for Molly's Game: Jessica Chastain here.

Other possible/probable TFF #44 films that are highlighted in the issue include:Battle of the Sexes, First They Killed My Father, Our Souls at Night, Wonderstruck, The Snowman, Roman Israel Esq., Wonder, Molly's Game, Lady Bird, Darkest Hour. The Shape of Water, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Happy End, and Downsizing.

The EW Fall Film Preview is on sale now.

That's your Monday.  More to come tomorrow and later this week including a new set of announced films from the Toronto International Film Festival.

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LATE BREAKING; Venice Schedule Released; Clues for Telluride

LATE BREAKING:

The schedule for the Venice Film Festival was posted overnight and gives clues about what films we think may play both places.

We already have had some clues.  I was already fairly certain about things like Downsizing, The Shape of Water, Wormwood and Human Flow due to their Toronto status or other reporting.  Those films seem to be in good shape for Telluride with Venice dates that will allow them to do Venice and then come to T-ride or the reverse...do Telluride and then to Venice.

We also know that Venice director Alberto Barbera has said that there are likely 7-8 films that would play both places.

Downsizing opens Venice on Aug. 30
The Shape of Water plays Aug. 31
Human Flow plays Sept.1...which is probably as late as a film can play Venice and still make T-ride.

Then...

Wormwood plays Sept. 6 which would allow a Telluride bow before Errol Morris headed to Italy.

Other films we have been pointing out that fall into either the early or late windows:

Early:

Aug. 31-Paul Schrader's First Reformed and (though I haven't had this on my radar) William Freidkin's The Devil and Father Amorth (yes please)
Sept. 1- Andrew Haigh's Lean on Pete and Ritesh Batra's Our Souls at Night

Late:
Sept. 6-Warwick Thornton's Sweet Country
Sept. 7-Mektoub My Love Canto Uno

That's six films in addition to the four that we thought were already probable to make the journey.  My guess is that the additional three or four are among these.

The full Venice Schedule is here.

More analysis on Monday...

Ten (Actually 16) Bets #7 / Loving Vincent is Solid / More Views of Shape of Water / Lean on Pete News / Late Breaking: Venice Schedule Gives Clues / 350,000

It's Friday...


TEN (ACTUALLY 16) BETS #7

Here's your weekly assessment of what I think are the films that will play at the Telluride Film Festival based on the announcements from other fests, social media, media speculation and my own best estimate.

As always...

Last Week's Ten (really 16) Bets plus additional possibilities

1) Wonderstruck
2) Downsizing
3) Battle of the Sexes
4) The Shape of Water
5) Darkest Hour
6) A Fantastic Woman
7) Hostiles
8) Lady Bird
9) The Rider
10) Loving Vincent
11) Human Flow
12) First They Killed My Father
13) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
14) Wormwood
15) The Florida Project and Visages/Villages (tie)

Other possibilities: Loveless, You Were Never Really Here, Lean on Pete, Mary Magdalene, The Other Side of Hope, Mektoub My Love, First Reformed, Happy End, Our Souls at Night, The Death and Life of John F. Donovan, Molly's Game.

This week's Ten (really 16) Bets #7

1) Downsizing
2) Wonderstruck
3) The Shape of Water
4) Battle of the Sexes
5) Darkest Hour
6) Loving Vincent
7) Hostiles
8) Lady Bird
9) A Fantastic Woman
10) The Rider
11) Visages/Villages
12) First They Killed My Father
13) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
14) The Other Side of Hope
15) Wormwood
16) Before We Vanish



Films still possible for Telluride:

Happy End
Marshall
Wonder
Mary Magdalene
Loveless
Final Portrait
The Silent Man
Molly's Game
The Snowman
Lean on Pete
Redoubtable
L'amant Double
You Were Never Really Here
Our Souls at Night
Chappaquiddick
Mektoub My Love
The Death and Life of John F. Donovan

Of these remaining possibles here are the five most likely:

1) Loveless
2) Lean on Pete

3) You Were Never Really Here

4) Happy End

5) L'amant Double

LOVING VINCENT IS SOLID

We have thought that the hand painted animated prize winning feature film Loving Vincent would be on the Telluride list this year and I can report that sources tell me that it is solidly a part of The SHOW.

The new trailer earlier this week looked gorgeous.  The film will be released in the U.S. Sept. 22nd.


MORE VIEWS OF THE SHAPE OF WATER

Slash Film reported new stills from Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water this week.  It might, at this point, be the film I am most looking forward to for TFF #44.

Here are a couple of the new pics:

And the complete SlashFilm article is here.

LEAN ON PETE NEWS

 Had a knowledgeable source last night tell me that Andrew Haigh's Lean on Pete will likely bow in Venice on the first Friday of that fest which, theoretically could allow it to make a screening in Telluride (just as I suggested might be possible for Our Souls at Night in yesterday's post).

Now, that doesn't guarantee anything but does keep the door open for the film to make the trans-Atlantic trip.  See the following story...

LATE BREAKING: VENICE SCHEDULE IS UP AND  GIVES CLUES

The schedule for the Venice Film Festival was posted overnight and gives clues about what films we think may play both places.

We already have had some clues.  I was already fairly certain about things like Downsizing, The Shape of Water, Wormwood and Human Flow due to their Toronto status or other reporting.  Those films seem to be in good shape for Telluride with Venice dates that will allow them to do Venice and then come to T-ride or the reverse...do Telluride and then to Venice.

We also know that Venice director Alberto Barbera has said that there are likely 7-8 films that would play both places.

Downsizing opens Venice on Aug. 30
The Shape of Water plays Aug. 31
Human Flow plays Sept.1...which is probably as late as a film can play Venice and still make T-ride.

Then...

Wormwood plays Sept. 6 which would allow a Telluride bow before Errol Morris headed to Italy.

Other films we have been pointing out that fall into either the early or late windows:

Early:

Aug. 31-Paul Schrader's First Reformed and (though I haven't had this on my radar) William Freidkin's The Devil and Father Amorth (yes please)
Sept. 1- Andrew Haigh's Lean on Pete and Ritesh Batra's Our Souls at Night

Late:
Sept. 6-Warwick Thornton's Sweet Country
Sept. 7-Mektoub My Love Canto Uno

That's six films in addition to the four that we thought were already probable to make the journey.  My guess is that the additional three or four are among these.

The full Venice Schedule is here.

More analysis on Monday...

350,000

MTFB passed another milepost yesterday with the 350,000th view.  

Thank you.

That's your MTFB for Friday, Aug. 11, 2017.  More on Monday!

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Many Announcements-Still Questions / Wonder Has a New Trailer / Film Stars Uncertainty Continues / Our Souls at Venice and Then...

Good Thursday Friends.

MANY ANNOUNCEMENTS-STILL QUESTIONS

In the last 48 hours we have had information forthcoming from The New York Film Festival, Fantastic Fest and Toronto's Canadian Film lineup.  They all have things to tell us.

New York's main slate announcement on Tuesday added or confirmed (probably) six films for TFF #44.  Those added:  Agnes Varda's Visages/Villages, Aki Kaurismaki's The Other Side of Hope and Kiyoshi Kurosawa's Before We Vanish.  Confirmed: Wonderstruck, Lady Bird and The Rider.

Films that I have thought might be Telluride choices that WILL NOT: The Florida Project (and that really saddens me-both because I am very interested in seeing the film and also because I was strongly thinking that it would play The SHOW), Spoor, Ismael's Ghosts and The Meyerowitz Stories.

The New York lineup info is here.

From Fantastic Fest's first wave announcement we discovered that Yorgos Thanimos' The Killing of a Scared Deer would have its U.S. Premiere there.  That took it off the list of possible Telluride Films.  Also, though their inclusion doesn't affect anything we already knew for TFF, both Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri and The Square will also be making their U.S. Premiere in Austin.  It doesn't appear that any of the announced films for Fantastic Fest will double up with T-ride though further added titles are expected.

The Fantastic Fest announcement is here.

The Toronto International Film Festival announced their Canadian films for 2017 that are slotted in across their various programs.  Only a couple of things to be gleaned from that.

First, some thought, including me, that we might see Xavier Dolan's The Death and Life of John F. Donovan named by TIFF yesterday and it is was not.  That doesn't mean that it won't show up somewhere in TIFF's remaining two announcements but it seems odd that they wouldn't tout it as a big Canadian entry.

Otherwise, the second thing is that none of the announced Canadian titles are Telluride bound.  All are World Premieres.  I should also mention that that didn't remove any film off my list of films still floating out there that could make the Telluride list.

Here's Indiewire's coverage of yesterday's TIFF Canadian film announcement.


As of this morning here are the films that I am still tracking as possible TFF #44 titles that haven't been eliminated (in no particular order):

Happy End
Marshall
Wonder
Mary Magdalene
Loveless
Final Portrait
The Silent Man
Molly's Game
The Snowman
Lean on Pete
Redoubtable
L'amant Double
You Were Never Really Here
Our Souls at Night
Chappaquiddick
The Death and Life of John F. Donovan


WONDER HAS A NEW TRAILER

So many "wonder" films this year: Wonderstruck, Wonder Wheel, Wonder Woman, Professor Marston and The Wonder Women.  One big name "wonder" film still hasn't landed in a film fest lineup and that's Steven Chbosky's Wonder starring Julia Roberts, Owen Wilson and Jacob Tremblay.  The film is coming from Lionsgate which had a great run last year (which included a stop at TFF #43) with La La Land.

The film could end up at Telluride.  It's listed at IMDb as being complete.

Lionsgate released a second trailer for the film yesterday.  Here that is from YouTube:

The film opens Nov. 17th.


FILM STARS UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES

It's been two weeks since Toronto's first wave of announced films that included Paul McGuigan's Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool starring Annette Bening.  TIFF labeled it as a Canadian Premiere from the get go.  That has meant that I have been including it as a Telluride film this past few days despite the fact that some reporting has claimed it would be "premiering" at Toronto.

Additionally, I have been careful to remind readers that the film's star, Annette Bening, is presiding over the Venice Film Fest's Golden Lion competition jury which surely means that she cannot attend T-ride in person.

Then late Tuesday, I ran across this story in the Hollywood Reporter's International edition that flat says the film is World Premiering at TIFF:

So, again, I checked the TIFF website and it still shows the film as a Canadian Premiere:

So, though I have been maintaining that FSDDIL would be in Telluride, I have to report that the THR Int'l blurb makes me nervous and less certain.  Film Stars will likely be somewhere on tomorrow's extended Ten Bets list but it will certainly move further down.

OUR SOULS AT VENICE AND THEN...

Ritesh Baktra's Our Souls at Night starring Jane Fonda and Robert Redford was announced a few days back as a Venice selection in a non-competition slot.  Both of those actors will be honored by the fest.

I have thought that it might be possible that if Venice scheduled the film's screening in the right time frame that it might still be a Telluride possibility.  Now we may have a clue about that.

Film distrib Netflix dropped a teaser yesterday:

Among the coverage of the teaser's appearance was one article from Entertainment Weekly that says the film will bow in Italy on Sept. 1.

If true, does that time line work?  Probably.  Seeing as Venice is eight hours ahead of Telluride, a Sunday-Monday set of screenings seems like it could happen.

As I have mentioned before, there are factors that suggest that it could happen.  Batra has been to Telluride before.  Redford was a 2014 tribute recipient.  Netflix has had a solid relationship with the fest over the past couple of years.

Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere has suggested the possibility in a post yesterday:

The complete HE post is here.


That's your Thursday post.  More to come tomorrow including Ten (but it'll be more) Bets #7.

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European Film Producers / Film Stars is Officially SPC / Gathering the Forces of Light / UPDATED: New York Film Fest Announcement

Welcome to your Tuesday...23 days...

EUROPEAN PRODUCTION COMPANIES

I thought I'd take an abbreviated look at the four European production firms that seem to have had the most pronounced Telluride connection over the past decade: Film4, Canal+, France 3 Cinema and Cine+.

Here's the breakdown of what films they have aided in producing that played TFF and then a quick look at the films they have this year that are most likely to make the grade for The SHOW:

FILM4

2007: When Did You Last See Your Father?, Brick Lane
2008: Happy-Go-Lucky, Hunger, Slumdog Millionaire
2009
2010: Another Year, Never Let Me Go, 127 Hours
2011: Shame
2012
2013: Under the Skin, Starred Up, 12 Years a Slave
2014: Mr. Turner, '71
2015: Carol, Suffragette, Room, 45 Years
2016: Una

19 films in ten years.  1.9 per year.

Possibles: The Killing of a Sacred Dear, You Were Never Really Here, Lean on Pete, Mary Magdalene


CANAL+

2007: The Diving Bell and The Butterfly, Terror's Advocate, Jellyfish
2008: With a Little Help From Myself, I've Loved You So Long
2009: Farewell, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, The White Ribbon
2010: The Illusionist, Carlos, Of Gods and Men, The Princess of Montpensier
2011: Crazy Horse, Albert Nobbs, Goodbye First Love, The Kid with a Bike, The Artist, Le Havre
2012: Rust and Bone, Superstar, The Attack
2013: Blue is the Warmest Color", Le Maison de la Radio", "The Past"
2014: The Price of Fame, Two Days One Night, Diplomacy
2015: Marguerite
2016: Frantz, Lost in Paris, My Journey Through French Cinema, Things to Come

33 films in ten year.  3.3 films per year.

Possibles: L'amant Double, Happy End


FRANCE 3 CINEMA

2007: The Diving Bell and The Butterfly, Persepolis
2008: I've Loved You So Long
2009: The White Ribbon
2010: The Illusionist, The Princess of Montpensier, Of Gods and Men
2011: The Artist
2012: Superstar, Amour
2013: The Past

2014: The Gate, The Price of Fame, Mr. Turner
2015: Marguerite

No film in 2016.

15 films in ten years. 1.5 films per year

Possibles: Happy End, Redoubtable

CINE+

2007: The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
2008: With a Little Help from Myself
2009: Farewell, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, Inferno
2010: The Illusionist, The Princess of Montpensier, Of Gods and Men
2011: Goodbye First Love, The Kid with a Bike, Le Havre, The Artist
2012: Rust and Bone, Superstar, The Attack, Amour
2013: The Past, Blue is the Warmest Color, Le Maison de la Radio
2014: The Gate. The Price of Fame, Two Days One Night, Diplomacy
2015: Marguerite
2016: Frantz, Lost in Paris, My Journey Through French Cinema

28 films in ten years.  2.8 films per year.

Possibles: L'amant Double, Happy End


FILMS STARS IS OFFICIALLY SPC

We had heard a couple of weeks back that Sony Pictures Classics was close to a deal to acquire Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool.  That deal was announced as complete yesterday according to multiple reports including from Deadline.com, The Hollywood Reporter and Variety.

The film is on our Telluride list due to its status as a Canadian Premiere at Toronto.  I re-checked that status last night in light of the breaking news because the reports indicated that the film is "premiering" at Toronto.  I noticed, however, that the premiere status was not specifically identified.  So, for the moment, I still think it's playing TFF #44.

One other note about the film-I have made the point a few times that Annette Bening will be tied up with her Venice Jury President's duties which begs the question: Will any talent from the film accompany the film in addition to director Paul McGuigan?  The most likely suspect would be Bening's young co-star Jamie Bell but it could include Vanessa Redgrave and/or Julie Walters either of which should probably have been included in yesterday's "Let's Talk Tributes" section on this blog.

Redgrave please.

GATHERING THE FORCES OF LIGHT

It's never too early to start to remind readers that MTFB will again send out the call to rate the films that you see at TFF #44.

The system is simple.  Contact me with a rating of 0-5 for each film you see.  You can send those to me via any of the methods listed at the bottom of this blog.

MTFB will, again this year, also be collecting ratings from a number of the professional film critics and bloggers who will be in town.  Many fine folks have agreed to participate again this year including Indiwire's Eric Kohn, Anne Thompson and David Ehrlich, Awards Daily's Sasha Stone and The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg among others.

At the conclusion of the fest I'll publish the results from the Pros, The People and a combination rating.  It's kind of interesting and can even be illuminating.

Last year, Moonlight broke a trend that had been going for a number of years in that the Oscar Best Picture winner had finished in the #2 spot in The People's Ratings.  Moonlight broke that after finishing in the top spot.

Still, for five straight years now, The People's Telluride has been very predictive bout where the BP Oscar would go.


LATE BREAKING: NEW YORK FILM FEST ANNOUNCEMENT (AND FANTASTIC FEST)

The New York Film Fest announcement dropped at 11am (EDT) and here's the quick takeaway as far as Telluride is concerned:

Apparently headed to Telluride that we didn't already think:

Agnes Varda's Visages/Villages
Aki Kaurismaki's The Other Side of Hope
and it would seem Kiyoshi Kurosawa's Before We Vanish

What appears to be conformed among films we were already fairly sure about:

Wonderstruck
Lady Bird
The Rider

Off our list for TFF #44

The Florida Project
The Meyerowitz Stories
Spoor

Fantastic Fest also released their first wave of titles which included the U.S. Premiere of  Yorgos Lanthimos' The Killing of  A Sacred Deer which means no Telluride for it.  Of interest also, the U.S. Premieres of Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri and for Cannes Palme d'Or winner The Square.

More to come on Thursday.

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Let's Talk Tributes / I Got Your Trailers Right Here / New York Reveals Tomorrow

Welcome back from the weekend...it's Monday.  TFF #44 is 24 days away.

LET'S TALK TRIBUTES

It's always fun to think about the three tributes that will be a part of the festival.  Last year eventual Best Actor Oscar winner Casey Affleck was one of the three along with Amy Adams and Pablo Larrain.  Over the years the fest has tributed some of the most important people in the history of film: Francis Ford Coppola, Jack Nicholson, Robert Altman, Clint Eastwood, Catherine Denueve, David Lynch, Ang Lee, Peter O'Toole, Daniel Day Lewis, Claudia Cardinale, David Fincher, Marion Cotillard, Robert Redford, Roger Corman and The Coen Brothers among others have all been feted as a part of the fest's tribute program.

The first place to start is with the buzz that we have seen/read...

Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere suggested on July 16th that one specific tribute had been nailed down and named names.  That post has since, seemingly been modified to remove the reference.

Meanwhile, Deadline's Pete Hammond in a July 25th piece has speculated tributes for Christian Bale with Hostiles and Angelina Jolie with First They Killed My Father.  Both of those wouldn't surprise me.

If we go down the list of 15-16 films that we're relatively confident will play the fest I can see some other potential tributes that make sense:

Wonderstruck might mean Julianne Moore (though, if you follow this blog, you know that the Wells article suggested another person connected to this film would be a tribute recipient).

Downsizing could give us Matt Damon.

Battle of the Sexes-maybe Steve Carell?

The Shape of Water-seems like Guillermo Del Toro is the best shot of a tribute here.  Maybe Sally Hawkins.

Hostiles-Bale

First They Killed My Father-Jolie

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool-Annette Bening would be a great tribute subject but her gig presiding over the Golden Lion jury for Venice makes that impossible.

The Florida Project-Willem Dafoe would be an interesting choice.

Among the other films that are listed as "possibles":

Lean on Pete-Steve Buscemi...yes please.

Mary Magdalene-Joaquin Pheonix... though Phoenix might not have any interest in a tribute.

First Reformed-Ethan Hawke

Our Souls at Night-Jane Fonda...perhaps presented by her co-star and 2014 TFF tributee Robert Redford.

The Death and Life of John F. Donovan- a plethora of possibilities-Natalie Portman, Jessica Chastain. Thandie Newton, Susan Sarandon, Kathy Bates...even Michael Gambon who narrates in the film.

Molly's Game-Aaron Sorkin or Jessica Chastain.

My bet is that at least one, if not all three people who will be tributed are listed or referenced above.


I GOT YOUR TRAILERS RIGHT HERE

A couple of trailers appeared last week for films that will/could play The SHOW's 2017 edition.

First, a full trailer for the animated by hand exploration of the life of Vincent Van Gogh, Loving Vincent which we're fairly confident will make the journey to Telluride (from YouTube):

The film is distributed by Good Deed Entertainment is set to be released on Sept. 22.

Here's a story about the film and trailer release from Alex Billington/FirstShowing.net.

Also up with a trailer last week was Simon Curtis' Goodbye Christopher Robin (from YouTube):

The film focuses on the life of A.A. Milne, the creator of Winnie the Pooh.  The film is from Fox Searchlight and is set for an Oct. 13 release.

One note here, though.  I'm firm in my belief that Fox Searchlight already has Battle of the Sexes and The Shape of Water playing in Colorado and the chances of them playing three films there are smallish.

The Playlist covered the release of the trailer.

NEW YORK REVEALS TOMORROW

The New York Film Festival/Film Society of Lincoln Center are scheduled to reveal their main slate films tomorrow.  We already know that the fest will open with Richard Linklater's Last Flag Flying as a World Premiere and will close with Woody Allen's Wonder Wheel also as a World Premiere.  Their centerpiece film is Todd Haynes' Wonderstruck which they label a New York Premiere...one of the things that fueled my belief that it would be heading to Telluride.

Past that, it's all speculation for NYFF.  Just like announcements from Toronto, the NYFF reveal tomorrow will include premiere designations which can give us clues about other possible films headed to wither Telluride of TIFF.

Last year the NYFF announcement allowed me to claim that Fire at Sea, Graduation and Moonlight would play TFF #43 and confirmed Neruda, Manchester by the Sea, Things to Come and Toni Erdmann.

It also allowed us to eliminate form TFF #43 consideration: Aquarius, I, Daniel Blake, Sieranevada, Staying Vertical and The Unknown Girl.

TFF and NYFF share titles fairly commonly.  A look at the past few years and the number of films that played both TFF and NYFF:

2016- 11

2015- 4

2014- 11

2013- 12

2012- 9

So, we'll almost certainly find out some useful information tomorrow.

That's your Monday MTFB...more tomorrow.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Ten (Plus) Bets #6 (AKA as 15 Bets) / Toronto's Platform Has No TFF #44 Crossover / The Cases for Mary Magdalene and John F. Donovan

Good Friday people!  The 44th Telluride Film Festival opens four weeks from today.


TEN (PLUS) BETS #6 (AKA 15 BETS)

Yes.  It's time to expand the list from 10 films we think will play TFF #44 to 15 as we get closer to The SHOW date and have learned more, it makes sense to expand the list.

Here's last week's Ten Bets and added possibilities:

1) Wonderstruck
2) Downsizing
3) Battle of the Sexes
4) A Fantastic Woman
5) The Shape of Water
6) The Rider
7) Hostiles
8) Lady Bird
9) First They Killed My Father
10) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool

Additionally other detective work seems to be indicating Darkest Hour, Loving Vincent, Human Flow (see below) and Wormwood are likely for  Telluride.

Other films that could still play Telluride: Visages/Villages, The Other Side of Hope, Lean on Pete, Mektoub My Love Canto Uno, First Reformed, The Leisure Seeker, Ex Libris, Our Souls at Night, First Reformed, Sweet Country and La Camera Insabbiata, You Were Never Really Here, The Florida Project, Happy End, Loveless, Ken Burns' Vietnam and Mary Magdalene.

Here's is this week's 15 Bets:

1) Wonderstruck
2) Downsizing
3) Battle of the Sexes
4) The Shape of Water
5) Darkest Hour
6) A Fantastic Woman
7) Hostiles
8) Lady Bird
9) The Rider
10) Loving Vincent
11) Human Flow
12) First They Killed My Father
13) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
14) Wormwood
15) The Florida Project and Visages/Villages (tie)

Other possibilities: Loveless, You Were Never Really Here, Lean on Pete, Mary Magdalene, The Other Side of Hope, Mektoub My Love, First Reformed, Happy End, Our Souls at Night, The Death and Life of John F. Donovan, Molly's Game.


TORONTO PLATFORM TITLES: NONE WILL BE IN T-RIDE

Yesterday the Toronto International Film Festival unveiled 12 titles for its Platform Section.  Last year, that section included one film that played Telluride and that was Barry Jenkins' eventual Best Picture Oscar winner Moonlight.

However, that situation will not be replicated in 2017 as none of the Platform choices appear to be playing Telluride first.  All 12 titles were listed either as World or North American Premieres meaning no T-ride.

Three films that were included had been on my radar for Telluride at some point but are now off:

The Death of Stalin
Brad's Status
Sweet Country

I was particularly bummed by The Death of Stalin from Veep creator Armando Ianucci.  I was really hoping that it would make the trip to Colorado but, alas, it seems that won't happen.

We expect more Toronto announcements next week.

Platform coverage is here from Indiewire.

And also here from Variety.


THE CASES FOR MARY MAGDALENE AND JOHN F. DONOVAN

Joaquin Phoenix and Rooney Mara from Mary Magdalene via The Daily Mail

These are a couple of films that I haven't had high up on my Telluride expectations list but because of recent circumstances in both cases, they have been rising in the last week or so.

Mary Magdalene...why it could play:  First it's from The Weinstein Company.  I am on record saying that I thought that TWC would return this year to TFF.  I had been working on the assumption that The Current War was the most likely vehicle for that to occur but we found out last week that Current War will debut at Toronto leaving Mary Magdalene as TWC's only real prospect for fests

Second, the timing is right...the film is set for a Nov. 24th release date.  Carol opened Nov. 20th in 2015, The Imitation Game Nov. 28th in 2014, The Artist on Nov. 25, 2011  There's a track record that suggests the path starts at Telluride.

Third, reportedly star Rooney Mara has enjoyed her Telluride experiences these past two years with Carol in 2015 and Una in 2016 (BTW, Una has finally been dated for release this past week.  The film will open on Oct. 6th) and it can't hurt if your star does like the fest.

As for The Death and Life of John  F. Donovan, I haven't paid much attention because it has been ambiguously dated for 2018.  I have been assuming that it would probably debut at Berlin or Cannes. That got a jolt this last week as a Vanity Fair story about writer/director Xavier Dolan claims that he's working on the final edit to have it ready for fall film fests:

Additionally, the film has seen recent releases of character posters:

When you start seeing posters, teasers, trailers at this time of year you begin to think that involvement in a fest is a real possibility.

Also, Dolan has been a Telluride guest before in 2014 with Mommy.

So, chalk John F. Donovan in as an increased possibility for Telluride.  The complete Vanity Fair article is here.

There's your Friday...more can be had on Monday.  Have a fantastic weekend.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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