Thursday, February 15, 2018

The Tenth Telluride Film Festival Re-visited / Oscar Watchers Say...

Welcome to Thursday...

THE TENTH TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL RE-VISITED



My ongoing history project for the Telluride Film Festival goes on as we look at the the Tenth TFF that occurred Sept. 2-5, 1983.  Here are the particulars:

Tributes:

Richard Widmark, Andrei Tarkovsky and Luis Trenker.  Irwin Young was rewarded with a Special Medallion.  Additionally, the fest included a homage to David Niven.

SHOWS:



Alambrista
The Ballad of Gregorio Cortez
Boat People
Booker
Carmen
The Challenge
Chan Is Missing
Danton
Detour
Dung Aw
El Norte
Entre Nous
The Eyes, The Mouth
Forbidden Relations
In Heaven There Is No Beer
In the Name of the Father
Insiang
The Kaiser from California
Last Night at the Alamo
The Lost Son
My Name Is Ivan
Night and the City
Nostalghia
Pitfall
The Plague Dogs
Play Dirty
Rings on the Water
Seeing Red
Signal
The Simple Minded Murder
Sli
Testament
Turumba
The Way Ahead
White Shadows on the South Sea


GUESTS



William Devane
Taylor Hackford
Leonard Maltin
Edward James Olmos
Wayne Wang


OSCAR WATCHERS SAY...

Here's a quick sampler of where a number of the best Oscarologists think the Best Picture race is a week before the actual final voting starts:



Sasha Stone/Awards Daily:

1) Get Out
2) The Shape of Water
3) Dunkirk
4) Three Billboards
5) Lady Bird
6) Call Me By Your Name
7) Darkest Hour
8) The Post
9) Phantom Thread

Stone's latest predictions are here.




Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Lady Bird
4) Dunkirk
5) Phantom Thread
6) Get Out
7) Darkest Hour
8) Call Me By Your Name
9) The Post

Davis' latest predictions are here.



Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) Phantom Thread
7) Darkest Hour
8) Call Me By Your Name
9) The Post

Feinberg's latest predictions are here.



Erik Anderson (and crew)/Awards Watch:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) Darkest Hour
9) The Post

Awards Watch's latest predictions are here.



Gold Derby:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) Call Me By Your Name
7) Phantom Thread
8) The Post
9) Darkest Hour

Gold Derby's latest predictions are here.



That's today's MTFB.  More on Monday.

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Monday, February 12, 2018

The Writers Take the Spotlight / The Wrap Raps with Del Toro (who also has a new gig)

Welcome to Monday, my friends...


THE WRITERS TAKE THE SPOTLIGHT



Writing awards were the name of the game over the weekend as The Writers Guild of America named their best screenplays of the year.  Last Night the WGA named Get Out as Best Original Screenplay and James Ivory's Call Me By Your Name as Best Adapted Screenplay.  

The awards probably signal the Oscar winners in each category and also may portend which film takes home the Best Picture prize on Mar. 4th. as many Oscarologists believe that the win gives Get Out a boost with Oscar voting not set to get under way for another week.

Ivory also won the USC Scripter prize for adapted screenwriting for Call Me By Your Name.

With the WGA and Scripter awards announced that leaves only next week's BAFTA awards as the final precursor/harbinger for this Oscar season.  Oscar final voting will open Feb. 20th and closes a week later.

The Independent Spirit Awards will be announced on Saturday, Mar. 3rd with the Oscar ceremony to occur the following night.




THE WRAP RAPS WITH DEL TORO



Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water is right in the thick of the Oscar Best Picture race with the most nominations of any film (13).  It is considered by serious Oscar watchers as a very real threat to take home the big prize.  As such, Del Toro has been very accessible to media these past few months since Telluride and that has included a recent sit down with The Wrap.

The video is just shy of 30 minutes as Del Toro echoes many of the themes and ideas that audiences hear in T-ride just over five months ago.

  

One other quick note about Del Toro.  We know that he will not be in Telluride for TFF #45 as we discovered overnight that he has been named to preside over the Venice Film Fest jury.  I could have seen him back over Labor Day in support of Alfonso Cuaron's Roma much like Alejandro Inarritu was in T-ride last year for Del Toro's film.  

Roma is rumored to be a Cannes selection and it wouldn't be a shock to me to see it appear on the TFF #45 lineup.

That's your truncated MTFB for this Monday.  More on Thursday.


Thursday, February 8, 2018

Telluride Time Travel-The 11th Telluride Film Festival / Looking Back at Last Year's Oscar Predictions

Good Thursday...

TELLURIDE TIME TRAVEL- THE 11TH TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL




I'm continuing my TFF history project in today's post includes a quick look back at the 11th Telluride Film Festival.  TFF #11 occurred on Aug. 31-Sept. 2, 1984.  Highlights:

Tribute Recipients were: Henry Hathaway, Janet Leigh and Andrzej Wajda.

SHOWS:

Act of Violence
Almonds and Raisins
America and Lewis Hine
Camila
Cheaters
Coup De Torchon
Everything for Sale
Full Moon in Paris
Go Masters
Go Tell It on the Mountain
The Holy Innocents
L'Hirondelle et la Mesange
The Last Campaign
Lonely Hearts
Love in Germany
Maidstone
Man of Flowers
Milky Way
Mishima: A Life in Four Chapters
My First Wife
Paris, Texas
Peter Ibbetson
A Poet in the Cinema: Andrey Tarkovsky
Providence
Raw Deal
Reign of Terror
Repo Man
Slightly Scarlett
Steaming
Stranger than Paradise
Sunday in the Country
The Times of Harvey Milk
To the Last Man
Where the Green Ants Dream
Wooden Crosses


Participants (partial list):

Ry Cooder
Athol Fugard
Werner Herzog
Jim Jarmusch
Klaus Kinski
Jessica Lange
Norman Mailer
Sam Sheperd
Dean Stockwell
Bertrand Travernier
Harry Dean Stanton
Wim Wenders

TFF #11 became an important fest to remember this year with the death of Harry Dean Stanton.




LOOKING BACK AT LAST YEAR'S OSCAR PREDICTIONS



Every year after the Oscar ceremony ends, there are some pundits who turn the page very quickly and predict possible players for the Oscar race a year out.  I scour those for clues about films that could become Telluride invitees.

I thought today, with Oscar 2018 less than a month away, it might be interesting to see what that looked like.  For example, in my Mar. 2, 2017 post I included a link to an Awards Circuit story that named 50 anticipated films.

From that list I named Downsizing, Battle of the Sexes and Wonderstruck as TFF possibilities (and they have zero nominations between them).  I also incorrectly guessed The Current War, Suburbicon and Molly's Game.

That MTFB post is here.

A more Oscar specific Awards Circuit article was referenced on Mar. 9th.

I culled that list of films and named possible TFF films which included: Battle of the Sexes, Downsizing, Wonderstruck, Lean on Pete and The Shape of Water.

That post is here.

And Glenn Whipp took a stab for the L.A. Times which I evaluated and named Downsizing, Wonderstruck and hinted at Darkest Hour.

So as we move to the end of Oscar season, know this...there will be a new set of these type of articles soon and I will examine those for TFF #45 possibilities.

You can't stop what's coming.


My analysis of The L.A. Times article is here.

That's your MTFB for Thursday.  More Monday.

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Monday, February 5, 2018

Del Toro Wins the DGA / Indiewire's Awards Spotlight Series with Greta and Saoirse / A Fantastic Reception for A Fantastic Woman

Hello Earthlings...It's Monday...


DEL TORO WINS THE DGA



Guillermo Del Toro's direction for 13 time Oscar nominee The Shape of Water was recognized as the best of 2017 on Saturday night by the Directors Guild of America.  The win makes him the odds on favorite to win the Oscar for Direction and likely boosts Shape's chances to win Best Picture, though of late, it has become surprisingly common for Oscar to split the Directing and Best Picture prizes.

Del Toro joins the other two of the "Three Amigos" Alfonso Cuaron (2013's Gravity) and Alejandro Inarritu (2014's Birdman and 2015's The Revenant)  as winners of the DGA Award.  Both of those directors went on to win the Oscar as well.

Del Toro was named winner in a field that included Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird, Jordan Peele/Get Out (who did win for Best Debut Feature), Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk and Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards.


Analysis and complete winners in all the DGA categories are linked below from:






INDIEWIRE'S AWARDS SPOTLIGHT SERIES WITH GRETA AND SAOIRSE




Jude Dry writing for Indiewire sets the stage for the online film source to talk to Oscar nominees Greta Gerwig (Direction, Original Screenplay) and Saoirse Ronan (Best Actress) about the five time nominated film (including Best Picture) and TFF #44 favorite Lady Bird.




A FANTASTIC RECEPTION FOR A FANTASTIC WOMAN



Sebastian Lelio's A Fantastic Woman was highlighted steadily this past week.  The Oscar nominee for Best Foreign Language Film, and TFF #44 selection, was front and center in stories from Rolling Stone and Indiewire.





That's a wrap for MTFB until Thursday.  Hope everyone has a good week!

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Thursday, February 1, 2018

Early Oscar Predictions for Supporting Acting and Screenplays / Variety Assesses Oscar's Best Picture Nominees / Indiewire Talks to Sebastian Lelio

Welcome to February and Michael's Telluride Film Blog.

THE EARLY MTFB/FAC PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING AND SCREENPLAYS



As we get down to just a month-ish left before the 90th Academy Awards, here's a look at where I think these four major categories are  at the moment.  I have the competitors ranked from most likely winner to least likely.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



1) Allison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
3) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
4) Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World
5) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY



1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) Lady Bird
4) The Big Sick
5) The Shape of Water

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Molly's Game
3) Mudbound
4) Logan
5) The Disaster Artist

VARIETY ASSESSES OSCAR'S BEST PICTURE NOMINEES




In my last post I linked to an Indiewire analysis of each of this year's nine Best Picture nominees and their various pathways to a Best Picture win.  Today I'm passing along a Jenelle Riley piece from Variety that examines those nominees in much the same way.  Riley looks at each of the nominees advantages and challenges that they face over the next month.

That piece is linked here.


INDIEWIRE TALKS TO SEBASTIAN LELIO




Recently Indiewire's Eric Kohn sat down and interviewed Sebastian Lelio, the writer/director of the Oscar nominated foreign language film from Chile, A Fantastic Woman.  A Fantastic Woman played TFF #44 last Labor Day and it was the second film of Lelio's career that was featured at Telluride.  In 2013, his Gloria also made the TFF lineup.

A Fantastic Women also won three prizes at last year's Berlin International Film Festival.

Here is that interview from Indiewire.


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Monday, January 29, 2018

Telluride in 1985: Re-visiting TFF #12 / The FAC's First Oscar Winners Forecast / EW Profiles Lady Bird / THR and the Paths to Oscar Glory

Welcome back from the last weekend of the first month of 2018.


TELLURIDE IN A985: RE-VISITING TFF #12



The 12th Telluride Film Festival took place from Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 1985.

TRIBUTES:

Alexander Trauner
Emilio Fernandez
Hanna Schygulla

SHOWS



All he King's Men
Bliss
Chaos
Colonel Redl
Derborence
Desert Hearts
Drums Across the Sea
Dracula
Frida
The Funeral
The Girl with the Hat Box
The Great Wall Is a Great Wall
Harvest
Hidden River
The House on Trubaya Square
Huey Long
In Her Own Time
The Journey of Natty Gann
Les Visiteurs Du Soir
Louie Bluie
Lulu in Berlin
The Marriage of Maria Braun
Mishima: A Life in Four Chapters
The Mystery of Picasso
Nicaragua Was Our Home
Night of the Shooting Stars
One More Spring
The Passion of Joan of Arc
The Pearl
The Rebel
Reed: Insurgent Mexico
Sheer Madness
The Woman Men Yearn For
Yellow Earth

PARTICIPANTS

Klaus Maria Brandauer
Ken Burns
Roger Ebert
Chuck Jones
Helen Shaver
Alice Waters
Terry Zwigoff


THE FAC'S FIRST OSCAR WINNERS FORECAST

Here's a quick look at four major categories and what I perceive as the most to least likely winners in each category on Oscar Night, Mar. 4th.

Best Picture:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Lady Bird
4) Get Out
5) Dunkirk
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Post
9) Darkest Hour

Best Direction

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Greta Gerwig/ Lady Bird
4) Paul Thomas Anderson/Phantom Thread
5) Jordan Peele

Best Actress

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
4) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
5) Meryl Streep/The Post

Best Actor

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
4) Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq.
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

EW PROFILES LADY BIRD

Entertainment Weekly published a profile of Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird this week as Oscar nominations were announced.  The cover photo:




The film received five nominations last Tuesday for Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.

Here's the link to the online version.



THR AND THE PATHS TO OSCAR GLORY



The Hollywood Reporter's Stephen Galloway posted analysis this week about the ways and circumstances for a number of the Best Picture nominees to pay that off with the win for Best Picture on March 4th.

The article includes particularly analysis for TFF #44 films The Shape of Water and Lady Bird with Darkest Hour mentioned...barely.

Here's the link to the Galloway analysis.


That's your MTFB for Monday, Jan. 29, 2018.  I'll have more on Thursday...that'll be in February!


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Thursday, January 25, 2018

Oscar Thoughts and Telluride / Oscar Stats / Gold Derby's Early Line

Welcome to Thursday.


OSCAR THOUGHTS AND TELLURIDE



After the dust settles on Tuesday morning (and a couple of corrections after I lost the Best Costume Design nominees for a little while) we found that films that had played at the 44th edition of the Telluride Film Festival had garnered 30 nominations.  That's a far cry from last years total of 42 but still slightly ahead of the average number of nominations (around 28) since I have been tracking the awards season as a part of this space.

The breakdown:

The Shape of Water (13 which led all nominees...by a considerable margin): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Darkest Hour (6): Best Picture, Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.

One nomination each for:

A Fantastic Woman- Foreign Language Film
The Insult-Foreign Language Film
Loveless- Foreign Language Film
Loving Vincent-Animated Feature
Faces Places-Documentary Feature
Heroin(e)- Documentary Short

The FAC predictions went 94/122 for 77%...very average for The FAC. 

The FAC nailed some categories going 5 for 5 in Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Original Song, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

I was worst in Live Action and Documentary Short going 2 of 5 in both of those categories.

As is often the case, there were a number of categories where I had an what turned out to be an actual nominee in the first slot beyond my predicted nominees including Meryl Streep for Best Actress, Denzel Washington for Best Actor, Octavia Spencer for Best Supporting Actress and Christopher Plummer in Best Supporting Actor.  Other categories where that was the case were: Best Foreign Language Film, Best Animated Feature, and all three Shorts categories for a total of nine near misses.

I did hit 8/9 in Best Picture with Phantom Thread being where I whiffed.

As a matter of fact, the biggest surprise to me was the strength of Phantom Thread which landed a total of six nominations including Best Picture and Best Direction.  Another surprise, The Post's meager two nominations for Best Picture and Best Actress.

My best work...edging up Darkest Hour to my 9th spot.  My worst...missing Meryl Streep.  Never bet against Streep.

Now it's the wait for March 4th and the actual ceremony.


  OSCAR STATS



In addition to The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour and Lady Bird, there were other films that landed multiple nominations.

Following The Shape of Water, Dunkirk came next with 8 nominations followed by

Three Billboards 7
Phantom Thread 6
Blade Runner 2049 5
Call Me By Your Name, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Get Out each had 4 nominations.

Indiewire has the complete breakdown of nominees per film and per distributor and you can find that post linked here.

Additionally, you can find Indiewire's analysis of the nominees here.


GOLD DERBY'S EARLY LINE



Gold Derby has established their front runners.

The Shape of Water leads for Best Picture with odds of 9/2.  Three Billboards is next and then Lady Bird.

Other early leaders in major categories are:

Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water.  Odds- 3/2
Best Actor: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour. Odds- 3/2
Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards. Odds- 8/5
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards. Odds- 13/8
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney 7/4
Original Screenplay: Lady Bird 12/5
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name 8/5

The complete Gold Derby Odds are here.


That's your Thursday for MTFB.  I'll have more for you on Monday.  Have a great weekend!

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Tuesday, January 23, 2018

OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

2018 90th OSCAR NOMINATIONS

BEST PICTURE

Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

FAC goes 8/9

BEST DIRECTION

Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
Jordan Peele/Get Out
Paul Thomas Anderson/Phantom Thread

FAC goes 4/5


BEST ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
 Meryl Streep/The Post

FAC goes 4/5

BEST ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis/Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out
Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq.

FAC goes 4/5

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Leslie Manville/Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water

FAC goes 3/5

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards

FAC goes 4/5

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound

FAC goes 4/5


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY



The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

FAC goes 5/5

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square

FAC goes 3/5


ANIMATED FEATURE

The Breadwinner
The Boss Baby
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

FAC goes 4/5

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
The Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

FAC goes 4/5


FILM EDITING

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
Three Billboards
The Shape of Water

FAC goes 4/5

CINEMATOGRAPHY



Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

FAC goes 5/5

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water

FAC goes 3/5

COSTUME DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

FAC goes 5/5

MAKEUP AND HAIR

Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder

FAC goes 2/3

ORIGINAL SCORE




Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars;The Last Jedi
Three Billboards

FAC goes 3/5


ORIGINAL SONG

The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
Remember Me/ Coco
This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
Stand Up for Something/Marshall
Mighty River/Mudbound

FAC goes 5/5

VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

FAC goes 3/5

SOUND EDITING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

FAC goes 5/5

SOUND MIXING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

FAC goes 5/5

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Dekalb Elementary
Eleven O'Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote

FAC goes 2/5


ANIMATED SHORT

Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes

FAC goes 3/5


DOCUMENTARY SHORT



Edith and Eddie
Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop

FAC goes 2/5

TFF Films earn 30 nominations:

The Shape of Water (13): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Darkest Hour (6): Best Picture, Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

One nomination each for:

A Fantastic Woman- Foreign Language FIlm
The Insult-Foreign Language Film
Loveless- Foreign Language Film
Loving Vincent-Animated Feature
Faces Places-Documenatry Festure
Heroin(e)- Documentary Short

The FAC goes 94/122 for 77%...very average for The FAC.




Monday, January 22, 2018

MTFB/FAC Final Oscar Nomination Predictions / The FAC Oscar Nomination Breakdown / Final Oscar Predictions from Experts / Producers Guild Awards The Shape of Water / SAG-AFtra Likes Three Billboards

It's Monday and in less than 24 hours we will know the Oscar nominees for the 90th Edition of the awards...


MTFB/FAC FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS



Here they are...the final predictions for Oscar nominations.  Historically, The FAC is accurate 75%-80%.  It's also worth noting that in those categories where The FAC misses the sixth predicted nominee pops up  more than half of the time.

Nomination predictions are alphabetical.  "Others" are listed in the order of their probability of displacing one of the predicted nominees.

TFF #44 films are Bold.



BEST PICTURE

Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Others: (in order of likelihood): Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, The Big Sick, Phantom Thread

BEST DIRECTION

Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
Jordan Peele/Get Out

Others: Steven Spielberg/The Post, Sean Baker/The Florida Project, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game
Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird

Others: Meryl Streep/The Post, Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Michelle Williams/All the Money in the World

BEST ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis/Phantom Thread
James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out
Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour

Others: Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post, Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
Hong Chau/Downsizing
Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards

Others: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY



The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

Others: The Post, Phantom Thread, I, Tonya

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Fantastic Woman
Foxtrot
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square

Others; The Insult, The Wound, Felicitie


ANIMATED FEATURE

The Breadwinner
The Boss Baby
Coco
The Lego Batman Movie
Loving Vincent

Others: Ferdinand, Despicable Me 3, Cars 3

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Faces Places
Icarus
Jane
The Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

Others: City of Ghosts, Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Long Strange Trip


FILM EDITING

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Get Out
Three Billboards
The Shape of Water

Others: The Post, I Tonya, Lady Bird

CINEMATOGRAPHY



Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Others:Three Billboards, The Post, Call Me By Your Name

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Others: The Post,  I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

COSTUME DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Others: The Post,  I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

MAKEUP AND HAIR

Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder

Others: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Bright, Ghosts in the Shell

ORIGINAL SCORE



Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Post
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Three Billboards

ORIGINAL SONG

The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
Remember Me/ Coco
This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
Stand Up for Something/Marshall
Mighty River/Mudbound

Others: Evermore/Beauty and the Beast, It Ain't Fair/Detroit, Prayers for This World/Cries From Syria

VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
War for the Planet of the Apes

Others: Okja, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Valerian

SOUND EDITING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

Others: Wonder Woman, Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes

SOUND MIXING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

Others: Get Out, Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Dekalb Elementary
Facing Mecca
Lost Face
Watu Wote
Witnesses

Others: My Nephew Emmett, The Silent Child, Eleven O'Clock


ANIMATED SHORT

Cradle
Dear Basketball
In a Heartbeat
Lou
Negative Space

Others: Revolting Rhymes, Life Smartphone, Fox and the Whale


DOCUMENTARY SHORT



116 Cameras
Alone-The New York Times
Edith and Eddie
Heroin(e)
Kayayo-The Living Shopping Baskets

Others: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Ten Meter Tower, Traffic Stop


THE FAC OSCAR NOMINATION BREAKDOWN



If the FAC is 100% accurate tomorrow morning (and it will actually be between 70%-80% accurate if the past is prologue), here are some interesting notes:

TFF #44 films will collect 29 total nominations.

The Shape of Water will lead all nominees with 13: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.  The film could tie La La Land's all time total of 14 or even go to 15 with additional nominations for Octavia Spencer (very possible) and/or Michael Shannon (unlikely).

Darkest Hour (6): Best Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Makeup and Hair.  Don't go to sleep on Darkest Hour's Best Picture chances.  If the BP field extends past eight films, it could slip in.  Strong support in the craft categories and a strong vote from British Academy members could all create enough heat to propel it onto the list.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.  If Lady Bird picks up a sixth nomination expect it to be for Film Editing (not likely) which could signal that it is still very solid contender for BP.  Tracy Letts has a way, way outside shot at Best Supporting Actor.

Other TFF #44 films The FAC says get nominated:

Hong Chau/Best Supporting Actress-Downsizing
Foreign Language Film nominees: A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, Loveless
Loving Vincent/Animated Feature
Faces Places/Documentary Feature
Heroin(e)/Documentary Short


Other films with four or more nominations:

Dunkirk-8
Three Billboards-7
Call Me By Your Name-5
Get Out-5
Blade Runner 2049-4
Mudbound-4
Phantom Thread-4


FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM EXPERTS




Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Tapley Predicts the following nominations for TFF #44 films

The Shape of Water (11)- Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Hawkins), Supporting Actor (Jenkins), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Lady Bird (5)- Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (5)- Actor (Oldman), Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Original Score, Production Design

Downsizing (1)- Supporting Actress (Chau)

Loving Vincent (1)- Animated Feature

A Fantastic Woman (1)- Foreign Language Film

The Insult (1)- Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1)- Foreign Language Film

Faces Places (1)- Documentary

Heroin(e) (1)- Documentary Short

Tapley's Telluride total = 28 nominations


Here's his complete set of final Oscar nomination predictions.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

The Shape of Water (12): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay. Film Editing, Cinematography,  Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Visual Effects.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (3): Actor, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair

Downsizing (1): Supporting Actress

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Stone doesn't predict the Short Film categories.

Stone's total predictions for TFF #44 films: 26 nominations


Stone's complete "Predictions Friday" post is here.


Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

The Shape of Water (14): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Costumes, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (4): Actor, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (1) Adapted Screenplay

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

The Insult (1) Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Davis' total predictions for TFF #44 films: 31.

Davis complete final predictions are here.


Scott Feinberg/Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter

The Shape of Water (12):  Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (7): Best Picture, Actor, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Original Score

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Feinberg's total predictions for TFF #44 films: 29.

Feinberg's complete final predictions are here.


Erik Anderson and The Gold Rush Gang/Awards Watch


The Shape of Water (13): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Sound Mixing, Visual Effects

Darkest Hour (6): Actor, Cinematography, Original Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Anderson and crew predict a total of 30 nominations for TFF #44 films.

Their complete predictions are here.



THE PRODUCERS GUILD AWARDS THE SHAPE OF WATER



Ahead of its expected announcement as the leader in number of Oscar nominations tomorrow, The Producers Guild names Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water their Best Picture of the Year on Saturday night.

It's worth noting that The PGA has a preferential ballot like Oscar does.  It;s also worth noting that La La Land won the PGA and led all films in Oscar nominations last year and look how that turned out.

I have linked coverage and analysis from:





SAG-AFTRA LIKES THREE BILLBOARDS



Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri cleaned up at last night's SAG-AFTRA Awards claiming the Best Ensemble prize along with wins for Frances McDormand for Best Actress and Sam Rockwell for Best Supporting Actor.

Though the voting for Oscar nominations has been over for a few days, this turn of events along with The Shape of Water's win at the PGA on Saturday seems to indicate a two film race between Three Billboards and Shape for the Best Picture Oscar.

Many of the Oscar experts I follow, however are saying that both Get Out and Lady Bird aren't out of the race yet.

I have linked analysis from: 





That's it for this Monday.  I'll post Oscar nominees and a few thoughts tomorrow after the nominees are announced in a SPECIAL POST of Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Thursday, January 18, 2018

The FAC Predicts Foreign, Animated, Doc and Shorts / The Film Stage Looks Forward to 2018 / Hope for The Other Side the Wind

Good Thursday film friends and a big shout out to any and all of you Sundancers as that film fest launches today.  What will be this year's Get Out, Mudbound or Call Me By Your Name?


THE FAC PREDICTS FOREIGN, ANIMATED, DOC AND SHORTS

There are just a few days left before the live reveal of all 24 categories of nominations for the Oscars for this year.  That is set to happen early on Tuesday morning, Jan. 23rd.  In my last post I updated a bunch of major categories and included predictions on a number of feature "under the line" categories.  Today, I complete the circle with predictions for the remaining six categories not covered on Monday.

As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM



1) Foxtrot
2) Loveless
3) A Fantastic Woman
4) The Square
5) In the Fade

Others: The Insult, The Wound and Felicite.

Comment: This could be the most Telluride-centric category of the bunch.  If The Insult could supplant The Square or In the Fade, TFF #44 films would be 4 of the 5 nominees.  Realistically, the only other category that might approach that is Best Supporting Actress and that assumes that Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water-possible) Hong Chau (Downsizing-possible) or Kristen Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour-unlikely) join all but certain nominees Allison Janney (I, Tonya) and Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird).

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE



1) Coco
2) The Breadwinner
3) Loving Vincent
4) Lego Batman
5) The Boss Baby

Others: Despicable Me 3, Cars 3, Ferdinand


BEST DOCUMENTARY



1) Jane
2) Faces Places
3) Strong Island
4) Icarus
5) Last Men in Aleppo

Others: City of Ghosts, Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Long Strange Trip


LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Dekalb Elementary
2) Facing Mecca
3) Watu Wote
4) Witnesses
5) Lost Face

Others: My Nephew Emmett, The Silent Child, The Eleven O'Clock

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Dear Basketball
2) Lou
3) Cradle
4) In a Heartbeat
5) Negative Space

Others: Revolting Rhymes, Life Smartphone, Fox and the Whale


DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Eddie and Edith
2) Heroin(e)
3) Kayayo-The Living Shopping Baskets
4) Alone-The New York Times
5) 116 Cameras

Others: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Ten Meter Tower, Traffic Stop


Added to the predicted total from last Monday's post, if The FAC is 100% accurate (and it won't be), TFF #44 films will collectively earn 30 Oscar nominations on Tuesday.  The average for TFF #44 over the past several years is 27.

Last year, though was an all timer for TFF as TFF #43 films racked up a total of 42 nominations.


THE FILM STAGE LOOKS FORWARD TO 2018



The Film Stage published their list of 100 "Most Anticipated" films for 2018 last week and a number of titles that I believe have Telluride potential made their list.

For example:

#99-First Man
#95- Backseat (the Adam McKay Dick Cheney film starring Christian Bale)
#94- The Widow
#93- The Little Stranger
#79- Kursk
#77- At Eternity's Gate (does Julian Schnabel return to Telluride?)
#71-Mid-90's
#67- Where Is Anne Frank?
#61- The Death and Life of John F. Donovan
#52- Private Life
#50-Boy Erased
#48- Cold War
#46- The Sisters Brothers (does Audiard return to Telluride?)
#34- Sunset
#30- The Man Who Killed Don Quixote
#28- Peterloo
#27- The Women of Marwen
#26- Roma
#16- E-Book
#11- Everybody Knows (does Farhadi return to Telluride?)
#8- Widows (Steve McQueen...)
#4- Maya
#2- If Beale Street Could Talk

The complete Film Stage post is here.



HOPE FOR THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WIND

For months now, we have been anticipating the arrival of the restoration of Orson Welles unfinished final film The Other Side of the Wind.  We knew that the work to put it together had been continuing. 

The anticipation may finally have a payoff.  The Film Stage reports that a version of the film was screened this week.  The Film Stage tweeted that information last night (derived from a WellesNet.com tweet:




This increases the chances that we could see the film in eight months in the San Juans.  Fingers crossed.



That's your MTFB for today.  Come back on Monday for final Oscar nomination predictions!


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Monday, January 15, 2018

The FAC Updates Oscar's Major Categories / The FAC Predicts Under the Line Categories

Welcome back from the weekend.  Hope you had a good one.


THE FAC UPDATES OSCAR'S MAJOR CATEGORIES



With less than ten days left before scar announces its nominees, here are updated predictions in each of the eight "major" categories.  If you don't think Golden Globe results don't alter the perception of the race...maybe re-think.  As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE



The last update was on Best Picture was on Dec. 18th and it looked like this:

1) Lady Bird
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) The Post
5) Dunkirk
6) The Shape of Water
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project

Others: Mudbound, Darkest Hour, The Big Sick

And today's update:

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) The Shape of Water
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) The Post
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project

Others: The Big Sick, Darkest Hour, I Tonya


BEST DIRECTION

Last post:

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Steven Spielberg/The Post
4) Jordan Peele/Get Out
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird

Others: Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound

Today's update:

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Get Out/Jordan Peele
4) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird

Others: Steven Spielberg/The Post, Sean Baker/The Florida Project, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name


BEST ACTRESS

Last update was:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post
5) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water

Others: Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes


And today's update:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
5) Meryl Streep/The Post

Others: Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Michelle Williams/All the Money in the World


BEST ACTOR



As of the last update:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
4) Daniel Day Lewis-Phantom Thread
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Others: Tom Hanks/The Post, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq., Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger


And today's update:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
4) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Others: Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post, Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



From the Jan. 1st update:

1) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
2) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
3) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
4) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
5) Hong Chau/Downsizing



Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Leslie Manville/The Phantom Thread.


And the newest FAC says:

1) Allison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
5) Hong Chau/Downsizing

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Jan. 1st line:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
4) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes


And today's updated line:

1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
3) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
4) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

From the last update:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Wonderstruck


And today's update says:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Molly's Game
3) Mudbound
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY



The last posted predictions were:

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) Lady Bird
4) The Post
5) The Shape of Water



Others: The Big Sick, Phantom Thread, I Tonya


And today's updated list is:

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) Lady Bird
4) The Shape of Water
5) The Big Sick

Others: The Post, Phantom Thread, I Tonya




THE FAC PREDICTS "UNDER THE LINE" CATEGORIES

10 "under the line categories".

As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Blade Runner 2049
2) Dunkirk
3) The Shape of Water
4) Mudbound
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, Three Billboards, Call Me By Your Name

FILM EDITING

1) Dunkirk
2) The Shape of Water
3) Get Out
4) Three Billboards
5) The Post

Others: Baby Driver, Lady Bird, I, Tonya


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Phantom Thread
2) Beauty and the Beast
3) The Shape of Water
4) Victoria and Abdul
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

COSTUMES

1) Phantom Thread
2) Beauty and the Beast
3) The Shape of Water
4) Victoria and Abdul
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman


MAKEUP AND HAIR



1) Darkest Hour
2) Wonder
3) I, Tonya

Others: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Bright, Ghosts in the Shell


ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Shape of Water
2) Dunkirk
3) The Post
4) Phantom Thread
5) Darkest Hour

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Three Billboards


ORIGINAL SONG

1) Remember Me/Coco
2) Stand Up for Something/Marshall
3) This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
4) The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
5) Mighty River/Mudbound

Others: Evermore/Beauty and the Beast, It Ain't Fair/Detroit, Prayers for This World/Cries for Syria

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) War for the Planet of the Apes
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) The Last Jedi
4) Dunkirk
5) The Shape of Water

Others: Okja, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Valerian

SOUND EDITING

1) Dunkirk
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) Baby Driver
4) The Last Jedi
5) The Shape of Water

Others: Wonder Woman. Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes


SOUND MIXING

1) Dunkirk
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) The Shape of Water 
4) The Last Jedi
5) Baby Driver

Others: Get Out, Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes


If the FAC is 100% accurate TFF #44 films would earn 25 nominations from these 18 categories.

The Shape of Water-13
Darkest Hour-6
Lady Bird-5
Downsizing-1

On Thursday, I'll take a look at the remaining 6 categories: FOreign Language, Animated Feature, Doc Feature and the three Shorts categories.


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