Little Women May Be Off the Table / Hollywood Elsewhere Clues? / Looking Back to Look Forward

Welcome back from the weekend...


LITTLE WOMEN MAY BE OFF THE TABLE

I was listening to Indiewire's Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson's ScreenTalk podcast this weekend (they posted it last Friday) as they had teased some discussion of fall films and they do, in fact, talk about the films that they're hearing will be involved in festivals.  The most interesting comment comes from Thompson who suggested that Greta Gerwig's Little Women isn't likely to play any of the festivals.  The pronouncement isn't necessarily definitive but Anne Thompson is going to know more about these things than I am.

If the film doesn't play then that disappoints as I am genuinely curious to see what Gerwig and her crew do with the classic tale.  I have had Little Women on all three of this summer's Ten Bets with it at the #4 spot last Friday but you can expect that will be different when this Friday's Ten Bets goes up.

Among the films listed by Thompson and Kohn that they say are expected to play at some of the fall fests are: Motherless Brooklyn, A Hidden Life, The Report (after its debut at Sundance), A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Lighthouse, Pain and Glory and Jojo Rabbit.

The complete ScreenTalk Podcast is linked here.



HOLLYWOOD ELSEWHERE CLUES?

Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere had a couple of posts Friday and Saturday that, if nothing else, are interesting from a TFF speculative standpoint.

The first post on Friday talked about the Indiewire podcast that I have referenced above.  Wells suggests that he hasn't heard the same notion about Little Women.

Additionally, at the end of that post he rattles a list of films he calls "fall hotties" which include: The Irishman, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Motherless Brooklyn, Fair and Balanced, Harriet, The Last Thing He Wanted, The Laundromat, Torrance, Blackbird, Judy and The Aeronauts.

That post is linked here.

The following day (Saturday) Wells posts a continuation on his meditation entitled "If Wanting These Films to Play Telluride Is Wrong...".   Wells had received a response from someone he refers to as a "friend" suggested that NONE of the films that Wells had listed as his "fall hotties" would play TFF.

If true, that would nuke some titles that I have been thinking could/would be TFF bound most notably Motherless Brooklyn, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Judy.

Wells takes exception to the blanket characterization but who knows?

Further, Wells' source suggests that Netflix will probably have a couple of films at Telluride that Wells doesn't include on his "fall hotties" list.  By process of elimination the likely films would be Fernando Meirelles The Pope and the still untitled Noah Baumbach project.

Wells' Saturday post is linked here.



LOOKING BACK TO LOOK FORWARD

I have been spooking around my "Future Telluride" file lately.  That's the folder where I save articles about films when they're announced that feel like something I should keep an eye on as potential Telluride players in their future.

For hoots, this morning I took a quick inventory of films that I have in their that seem to be actively possible for TFF #46.  The earliest entry I have in there of a film that might make this year's SHOW is Lucy in the Sky which I put in the folder in May of 2015.

Others in chronological order:

The Irishman
Ad Astra
The Goldfinch
The Glorias: A Life on the Road
Judy
Ema
Bergman Island
Just Mercy
Harriet
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Falling
Blackbird
The Good Liar
Molly
1917
Untitled Todd Haynes Project (Dark Water/Dry Run?)
John Prine: Hello In There
Nomadland
Varda by Agnes
Light of My Life


It'll be fun to see if any and/or how many of these titles actually get announced in a few eeeks for Telluride.


That's the story for this Monday.  I'll have more tomorrow.

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Ten Bets 2019 #3 / A Couple to Keep an Eye On / Country Music Preview in San Fran

Welcome to Friday...hope you have a great weekend...


TEN BETS 2019 #3

Here's your weekly update concerning where I think the best bets are right now for making the lineup for the 46th Telluride Film Festival.

Last week's Ten Bets (plus some bonus speculation):

10) Jojo Rabbit
9) The Good Liar
8) Nomadland
7) Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
6) The Climb
5) Little Women
4) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
3) Family Romance LLC
2) Varda by Agnes
1) Parasite

Other films in serious play: The Goldfinch, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Motherless Brooklyn, Ad Astra, Molly, Lucy in the Sky.


This week's Ten Bets...

10) Nomadland
9) Judy
8) Motherless Brooklyn
7) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
6) Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
5) The Climb
4) Little Women
3) Family Romance LLC
2) Agnes by Varda
1) Parasite

The Good Liar and Jojo Rabbit drop into the "Other films in serious play" category which also includes: The Goldfinch, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music/Ryman Concert, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Ad Astra, Molly, Lucy in the Sky.


A COUPLE TO KEEP AN EYE ON

Sophia Loren via Variety

Normally when I run across items about a new film that is getting off the ground and it sounds like a project that I should keep in mind as a possible Telluride choice down the line, I slap that into a folder on my laptop called "Future Telluride".

The oldest item I currently have in there is a notice that Steve McQueen was going to direct a biopic about Paul Robeson.  That's from 2014.   The oldest one that I have that is currently relevant is a notice from Variety about Reese Witherspoon would be in Pale Blue Dot from Fox Searchlight.  That's become Natalie Portman in Lucy in the Sky.  Reese Witherspoon is now a producer on the film.  It's still at Fox Searchlight and is scheduled for release sometime this fall.

All of that is to tell you that a project announcement has to really grab my eye for me to slap it on this page before or instead of putting it into the "Future Telluride" folder.  A couple of those happened within the last 48 hours.

First, a report from Variety that 84 year old screen legend Sophia Loren is working a new film.  The film entitled The Life Ahead is a re-imagining of  a Romain Gary novel that was previously adapted into 1978's Foreign Film Oscar winner Madame Rosa starring Simone Signoret.

Loren hasn't appeared in a feature film since Rob Marshall's Nine in 2009.

TFF #47 anyone?

That Variety story is linked here.

And if that wasn't enough, news that director David Fincher (Se7en, , Zodiac, The Social Network) is set to direct a biopic about Oscar winning screen writer Herman Mankiewicz (winning for Citizen Kane).  The film is Fincher's first feature since 2014's Gone Girl. 

The film is tentatively titled Mank and is said to feature recent Oscar winner Gary Oldman in the role.  Fincher is planning to shoot the film in black and white and the production is set up at Netflix.

Again, TFF #47???

I have linked stories on the Fincher project here from:

The Hollywood Reporter

Variety

SlashFilm 



COUNTRY MUSIC PREVIEW IN SAN FRAN

Ken Burns and PBS are going to preview his new documentary in San Francisco on July 24th.  The SFStation.com reported that earlier this week.

The preview is scheduled to go from 7:30 to 10:00 that evening and will be followed by a Q+A.  That timing leads me to believe that it is probably a screening of the Ryman Auditorium concert I wrote about last week.

Normally I'd think this kind of screening would disqualify the film from a TFF bow but I still think there's a good chance that it makes  an appearance at TFF.

Linked here is the SFStation interview with Burns.


That does it for this week.  I'll have more on Monday.  Enjoy the weekend!

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Telluride and Oscar Part Five: Best Supporting Actress / The Woman Not in Window This Year / The Jesus Rolls Into 2020 / More on Milos Stehlik

It's Thursday, July 11, 2020...we should know the lineup for TFF #46 seven weeks from today!



TELLURIDE AND OSCAR PART FIVE: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

I'm continuing my eight part series about the relationship between the Telluride Film Festival in the last 14 years (beginning with 2005-the year before I first attended the fest) and The Oscars.  Today's subject is Best Supporting Actress.

Here are the women nominated for that honor from films that played The SHOW.  Winners are indicated with ***.


2005: Michelle Williams/Brokeback Mountain, Catherine Keener/Capote
2006: Rinko Kikuchi/Babel, Adriana Barazza/Babel
2007: Cate Blanchett/I'm Not There
2008: Taraji P. Henson/The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2009: Anna Kendrick/Up in the Air, Vera Farmiga/Up in the Air
2010: Helena Bonham Carter/The King's Speech
2011: Berenice Bejo/The Artist, Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs
2012: No nominees
2013: Lupita N'yongo/12 Years a Slave***, June Squibb/Nebraska

Emma Stone-Oscar nominee for Birdman

2014: Emma Stone/Birdman, Laura Dern/Wild, Keira Knightley/The Imitation Game
2015: Rachel McAdams/Spotlight, Rooney Mara/Carol, Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs
2016: Naomie Harris/Moonlight, Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea
2017: Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird, Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
2018: Emma Stone/The Favourite, Rachel Weisz/The Favourite, Marina de Tavira/Roma

Notes: An astounding 26 nominations in this category in the past 14 years but remarkably only a single win for Lupita N'yongo for 12 Years a Slave.

Both Michelle Williams and Emma Stone have been nominated twice in the category for TFF film performances.  Additionally, Stone was nominated and won Best Actress for La La Land.  TFF films account for all three of Stone nominations.

Williams has two other nominations for Best Actress for Blue Valentine and My Week with Marilyn.

Laura Dern's two Oscar nominations have both come via TFF films.  One in this category in 2014 for Wild.  The other was for Best Actress in 1991 for her performance in Rambling Rose.

TFF has seen three years in which three women were nominated 2014, 2015 and 2018.

To the best of my ability, I believe Ann Sothern was the first woman nominated for Supporting Actress for a T-ride film for 1987's The Whales of August.

Next Tuesday: Part Six: Supporting Actors.



THE WOMAN NOT IN THE WINDOW THIS YEAR

Amy Adams working on the film The Woman in the Window (via The Daily Mail)

Reports appeared yesterday that the Disney folks have moved Joe Wright's The Woman in the Window off its original Oct. 4th date.

That, as you might surmise, moves the film off the TFF #46 watch list.

The Hollywood Reporter's Rebecca Keegan noted Tuesday that the film has been pulled from the schedule for re-shoots after test screenings revealed that audiences were confused.  THR reports that the re-shoots re set to occur next month after star Amy Adams finishes her work on the Ron Howard project Hillbilly Elegy (already on my radar for TFF #47).

The film also features Oscars winner Gary Oldman and Julianne Moore.

Disney acquired the film earlier this year as apart of its takeover of 20th Century Fox and its off-shoots including Fox 2000 which was the home for The Woman in the Window.

Here's the complete story from The Hollywood Reporter.


THE JESUS ROLLS INTO 2020

John Turturro's semi-sequel to The Big Lebowski-which had been titled Going Places but has been re-christened now as The Jesus Rolls- has an announced release target.  Multiple sources put the film into an early 2020 release window.  No specific date has been announced, however.

Screen Media has acquired the film for distribution.

I had been watching for the news of distribution acquisition and dating and admittedly had it on my TFF radar largely because of the connection of the film to The Coen Brothers' Big Lebowski.

I'm of a mind that the 2020 date probably means that the film is probably out as a TFF consideration.

For fuller details check below for reports from:

Variety

Indiewire 

Deadline


MORE ON MILOS STEHLIK (AND A LITTLE ABOUT BEN BARENHOLTZ)

Continued memorials for Milos Stehlik, 1997 TFF Silver Medallion winner and member of the TFF Board of Governors (among many, many other titles and accolades).  Stehlik passed away last Saturday.

Reel Chicago

WBEZ.org

The Criterion Collection (by David Hudson)  It should be noted that this piece from The Criterion Collection website is for both Stehlik as well as Ben Barenholtz.  Barenholtz was a producer, distributor and programmer of note and I am told was instrumental in the early careers of David Lynch, The Coen Brothers and Darren Aronofsky.  He was an early and frequent attendee at Telluride.

Barenholtz died on June 27th at the age of 83.  His New York Times obituary is linked here.



Thanks for reading.  More tomorrow including a new Ten Bets.

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R.I.P. Milos Stehlik / Telluride and Oscar Part Four: Best Actor / Judy Trailer Arrives with a Hint or Two

Hello again from MTFB.  Here's your Tuesday installment...


R.I.P. MILOS STEHLIK

Milos Stehlik at the 71st Cannes Film Festival via WBEZ.org

Independent and International film pioneer Milos Stehlik has died of cancer at 70.  Stehlik was a member of the Telluride Film Festival's Board of Governors and was a recipient of the fest's Silver Medallion back in 1997.


Here's the program entry from the 24th Fest (1997) complete with essay by the late Roger Ebert:

Stehlik was instrumental in bringing films from the Czech New Wave to America.

Variety has a very nice recap of Stehlik's life, career and ties to Telluride linked here.  Included in that story is the news that beginning with this year's fest, one of the 50 members of TFF's Student Symposium will named Milos Stehlik/Facets Scholar.


Additionally, from RogerEbert.com, this from Brian Tallerico.

Also from his hometown Chicago newspapers.  Here are stories from The Chicago Sun-Times and The Chicago Tribune.

Also, I reached out to former Telluride Film Festival Co-Director Gary Meyer who was kind enough to share some thoughts about Stehlik:

“Film is the most important art and it has the power to change the universe.”—Milos Stehlik


First, Milos Stehlik was a friend. He was a passionate yet gentle lover of cinema with a smile that made you especially happy to see him and his equally passionate wife Elizabeth. He enjoyed discussing practically any aspect of the movies and was especially interested in giving a platform to underrepresented voices from all over the world, especially the Czech films of his home country.

Milos was one of the most important film people on the Chicago scene. Facets MultiMedia was long an adventurous exhibition space with innovative programming and strong educational outreach to youth with classes, a film summer camp and the annual children's film festival he started 36 years ago that has an international impact. 

Early on Milos saw the opportunity to expand people's cinema awareness by starting a video rental and sales division so that patrons could go deeper into their movie exploration.  The catalogs they issued were huge and became essential reference books much like the Audio and Films Inc. rental catalogs of the 1970s. Look at this reference page. They also released for home video and libraries many hard-to-find films.  Keeping ahead of the curve Facets moved from VHS to DVD/BluRay as those changes happened and dove into streaming early on. 

Milos knew how to find and develop talented people to carry out his vision and keep Facets an essential and relevant place for film lovers. He had the vision to make certain a succession plan was in place to so his legacy would carry forward.

He was a staple on Chicago public radio's WBEZ, wrote about movies and was a popular film presenter.

Milos was a longtime attendee at the Telluride Film Festival, contributing his knowledge and connections. He had been on the Board of Governors for many years and was most recently President (2016-2017).


TELLURIDE AND OSCAR PART FOUR: BEST ACTOR

Picking up where I left off last week, I'm continuing an eight part series of articles tracing the connection between films that have played Telluride's Film Fest and the eight "major" Oscar categories.

Last Thursday I looked at T-ride and the Best Actress nominees from the past 14 years.  Today it's Best Actor.  Here are the actors that played films at TFF since 2005 who were Oscar nominated as leads.  Additionally, if that actor won it is indicated with ***.


2005: Joaquin Phoenix/Walk the Line, Heath Ledger/Brokeback Mountain, Philip Seymour Hoffman/Capote***
2006: Forest Whitaker/The Last King of Scotland***, Peter O'Toole/Venus
2007: Daniel Day Lewis/There Will Be Blood*** (I always count this and Benjamin Button even though we only saw a portion of each film in tributes to Daniel Day Lewis and David Fincher)
2008: Brad Pitt/The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2009: George Clooney/Up in the Air
2010: Colin Firth/The King's Speech***, Javier Bardem/Biutiful, James Franco/127 Hours
2011: Jean Dujardin/The Artist***, George Clooney/The Descendents
2012: No nominees

2013: Bruce Dern/Nebraska, Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave
2014: Michael Keaton/Birdman, Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game, Steve Carell/Foxcatcher
2015: Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs
2016: Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea***, Ryan Gosling/La La Land
2017: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour***
2018: No nominees

Notes: 22 nominees over the 14 years with seven wins.  2018 is the only year since 2005 that no TFF film had a Best Actor nominee.

Thursday we'll take a look at the History of Telluride and Best Supporting Actress.




JUDY TRAILER ARRIVES WITH A HINT OR TWO


As reported yesterday, the Judy Garland biopic starring Renee Zellweger landed a full length trailer yesterday.  Here it is from YouTube:

Included in a couple of stories I've seen is speculation as to the possibility of fall fest screenings for the film.  Andreas Wiseman writing for Deadline.com says, "We've heard that there's a good chance the the movie could debut at Telluride."

That Deadline story in its entirety is linked here.

Meanwhile, other coverage of the trailer release is linked here from The Hollywood Reporter, Indiewire and The Playlist.

Judy is scheduled for release on Sept. 27th.

More from MTFB on Thursday...

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New Ad for Ad Astra / New Judy Trailer Coming Today / Netflix Re-Thinking

Welcome back from the weekend...hope yours was good.


NEW AD FOR AD ASTRA

The producers of the Brad Pitt starring As Astra launched a 30 second spot via the film's official Twitter account over the weekend.

For my money, it may do a better job of teasing the film than the full trailer that appeared four weeks back.

Ad Astra tells the story of astronaut Pitt who agrees to search for his father, also an astronaut, who disappeared years earlier while on a deep space mission that could still have far reaching consequences in terms of the survival of the solar system.

Ad Astra is directed by James Gray and Twentieth Century Fox is distributing.  It's due in theaters on Sept. 20th. 

Here's the link to the new spot on the Ad Astra Twitter feed.


NEW JUDY TRAILER COMING TODAY

Renee Zellweger as Judy Garland in Judy

Anton Volkov reported over the weekend that we'd see a new trailer for the Judy Garland biopic Judy.  The film stars Renee Zellweger in the title role.  Also appearing are Jessie Buckley, Finn Whitrock, Rufus Sewell and Michael Gambon.

The film is directed by Rupert Goold (True Story).  Roadside Attractions and LD Entertainment are distributing domestically with Sept. 27th scheduled for U.S. release.

The Trailer Track story is linked here and I hope to have the trailer here for the blog tomorrow.


NETFLIX RE-THINKING

Saw this story over the weekend as well.  Netflix is reportedly reviewing its big budget film approach and re-considering it all together.

Specifically mentioned in the coverage (which originated with TheInformation.com) were the hefty price tags for J.C. Chandor's Triple Frontier (est. $115 million) and, as you might expect, Martin Scorsese's The Irishman (est. 150 million).

I'd be curious about how or if  Roma's success but lack of a Best Picture win last year is factoring into the process.  Further, I wonder if Netflix will strive to be as much of a presence at Telluride as they were last year.  The streamer had half a dozen films playing as a part of the fest in 2018.

It also seems to be of a piece with recent shakeups at Amazon Studios who may also be re-evaluating how much money they are willing to pour into projects.

I have linked stories about the Netflix re-think here from Indiewire and The Playlist.




I'll have more tomorrow including the continuation of my series on the Telluride/Oscar connection.


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Ten Bets 2019 #2 / Country Music at the Ryman / Focusing on Toronto and Venice

The first week of July comes to and...




TEN BETS 2019 #2

Well, a week has gone by and there is a bit of movement and shuffling regarding the Ten Bets.

Here's what the first installment looked like a week ago:


10) The Good Liar
9) Little Women
8) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
7) Jojo Rabbit
6) Family Romance LLC
5) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
4) Lucy in the Sky
3) Varda by Agnes
2) Nomadland
1) Parasite

Other films in serious play: The Goldfinch, Untitled Noah Baumbach Project, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Climb, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Motherless Brooklyn, Ad Astra.


And here is the latest Ten Bets...

10) Jojo Rabbit
9) The Good Liar
8) Nomadland
7) Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
6) The Climb
5) Little Women
4) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
3) Family Romance LLC
2) Varda by Agnes
1) Parasite

Other films in serious play: The Goldfinch, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Motherless Brooklyn, Ad Astra, Molly, Lucy in the Sky.



COUNTRY MUSIC AT THE RYMAN

We've been following the growing anticipation for Ken Burn's newest documentary on the history and reach of country music in America.  We have known that the 8 part series will kick off on PBS on Sept. 15th.  I have been thinking for some time that we'd have a good chance to see some of the doc at TFF #45.  Now, I have a guess as to how that will happen and what form it might take.

I knew that the Doc's crew had recorded an evening of performances and reminiscences at The Ryman Auditorium (home of The Grand Ole Opry) in Nashville on March 27th.  I had assumed some of that footage would make its way into the doc and perhaps it will.  What I also discovered over the last day or two is that PBS is going to air the concert on Sept. 8th-a week before the full doc hits the network.

So, my guess at this point is that Telluride attendees have the chance the concert footage during Labor Day weekend.

I tumbled across the news in an article describing the concert from SoulCountry.net.  That article, which is fairly detailed in its description of the evening, is linked here.



FOCUSING ON TORONTO AND VENICE

I was reminded in a couple of places since Tuesday's post that we will begin to get some very serious insight as o films and which fests will have what in less that three weeks now.  Toronto makes the first of its multiple announcements on June 23rd.  That set of films will give us clues in terms of which films we've been tracking will likely play Telluride first and which ones won't play TFF at all.  It's not a comprehensive list, however as the Toronto organizers will continue to roll out new announced films the four weeks following their initial announcement on June 23rd.

Venice announces on June 25th.  Over the past few years, the Venetian announcement has served as a flag for films that could still play both in Venice and Telluride.  Last year as astounding nine films shared screenings in both places.  We'll get more clues about what this year's group of films that will be shared when Venice announces its actual screening schedule.

Stay tuned...


That's MTFB for the Fifth of July 2019.  I'll have more on Monday.



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Telluride and Oscar Part Three: Best Actress / A Date for A Hidden Life / Bacurau Is Acquired

Happy Independence Day everyone...


TELLURIDE AND OSCAR PART THREE: BEST ACTRESS

Best Actress Oscar winner Emma Stone (La La Land TFF #43)

Picking up where I left off Tuesday, I'm continuing an eight part series of articles tracing the connection between films that have played Telluride's Film Fest and the eight "major" Oscar categories.

Tuesday I looked at T-ride and the Best Director nominees from the past 14 years.  Today it's Best Actress.  Here are the actresses that played films at TFF since 2005 who were Oscar nominated as leading actresses.  Additionally, if that actress won it is indicated with ***.


2005: Reese Witherspoon/Walk the Line***
2006: Kate Winslet/Little Children, Penelope Cruz/Volver
2007: Ellen Page/Juno, Laura Linney/The Savages
2008: No nominees
2009: Carey Mulligan/An Education, Helen Mirren/The Last Station
2010: Natalie Portman/Black Swan***
2011: Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs
2012: Emanuelle Riva/Amour
2013: Sandra Bullock/Gravity
2014: Marion Cotillard/Two Days One Night, Reese Witherspoon/Wild
2015: Brie Larson/Room***, Charlotte Rampling/45 Years, Cate Blanchett/Carol
2016: Emma Stone/La La Land***
2017: Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water, Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
2018: Olivia Colman/The Favourite***, Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Yalitza Aparicio/Roma


Notes: For Best Actress 22 nominations over these 14 years (to the best of my ability, I believe Jane Alexander was the first Best Actress nominee from a TFF film.  That came in 1983 for Testament).  Over the 14 years, five women of Telluride have won the trophy.

It does feel like the festival has gained some traction as a Best Actress launchpad over the last five fests (2014-18) with half the nominees and three of the five wins coming during that span.

2015 and 2018 were the strongest Best Actress years with three nominees coming from TFF films in both of those years.

Next Tuesday: time to look at Best Actor.


A DATE FOR A HIDDEN LIFE

Although I have continued to soft pedal its chances to play at Telluride, a recently announced released date for Terrence Malick's A Hidden Life continues to make it a possibility.

Multiple sources including Deadline and World of Reel reported last weekend that the Malick film will be released in the U.S. on Dec. 13th.  smack in the middle of awards season.  That's consistent with what had been reported earlier that Fox Searchlight would be proceeding with a strong awards push for the film.

The Dec. 13th date would allow Malick to play Telluride, Toronto, New York, London and/or AFI.  It's Cannes premiere means that no Venice play is in its future.

A Hidden Life tells the true story of an Austrian conscientious objector during WWII.



BACURAU IS ACQUIRED

Specialty distributor Kino Lorber added Cannes award winner Bacurau from Brazilian film makers Kleber Mendonca Filho and Juliano Dornelles to their stable of films.

I took a brief look at Kino Lorber's Telluride chances in my post on June 28th and concluded that, at that time, KL had another Cannes film, Synonyms, that had a 50/50 chance of making the TFF #45 lineup.

Bacurau's acquisition by Kino Lorber definitely raises its profile for Telluride with the asterisk that Variety reports that the film is currently set for 2020...which isn't a complete disqualifier.

Give Bacurau a 30% chance of making this year's program.

Here's the story from Variety



That's all for this 4th of July.  More on Friday including a new Ten Bets!

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The Distributors 2019: Many a Firm Final Part / Telluride and Oscar Part Two: Best Director / An Assist from a Friend

Hello to everyone on this Tuesday.  How's your July so far?



THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019; MANY A SMALL FIRM-FINAL PART

-BLEEKER STREET MEDIA

Bleeker Street's Telluride bona fides are barely existent but they have a film that is in post-production that could be in line to make the grade for The SHOW this year.  Sally Potter's Molly is currently listed as a 2020 release but...it has reportedly been in post-production since February.

Potter has some Telluride cred having screened her Yes there in 2004 and Ginger and Rosa in 2012 (with Molly star Elle Fanning in that cast).  Additionally, frequent Telluride guest/participant/resident Laura Linney is also featured in the cast.


-MUSIC BOX FILMS

Francois Ozon could return to Telluride via Music Box with By the Grace of God.  Ozon screened Frantz at Telluride in 2016 (also distributed by Music Box).  Adding a bit of fuel to the fire was the film's win of Berlin;s Silver Bear award in February.

Chances for each film-

Molly 35% (would be higher if it was scheduled as a 2019 release)
By the Grace of God 35%


TELLURIDE AND OSCAR PART TWO: BEST DIRECTOR

Picking up where I left off yesterday, I'm continuing an eight part series of articles tracing the connection between films that have played Telluride's Film Fest and the eight "major" Oscar categories.

Yesterday I looked at T-ride and the Best Picture nominees from the past 14 years.  Today it's the directors.  Here are the directors that played films at TFF since 2005 who were Oscar nominated.  Additionally, if that director won it is indicated with ***.

2005: Ang Lee/Brokeback Mountain***, Bennett Miller/Capote
2006: Alejandro Inarritu/Babel
2007: Jason Reitman/Juno, Julian Schnabel/The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Paul Thomas Anderson/There Will Be Blood (I count this and Benjamin Button even though we only saw a portion of each film in tributes to Daniel Day Lewis and David Fincher)
2008: Danny Boyle/Slumdog Millionaire***, David Fincher/The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2009: Jason Reitman/Up in the Air
2010: Tom Hooper/The King's Speech*** Darren Aronofsky/Black Swan.
2011: Michel Hazanavicius/The Artist***, Alexander Payne/The Descendents
2012: Michael Haneke/Amour
2013: Alfonso Cuaron/Gravity***, Steve McQueen/12 Years a Slave, Alexander Payne/Nebraska
2014: Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman***, Morton Tyldum/The Imitation Game, Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher
2015: Tom McCarthy/Spotlight, Lenny Abrahamson/Room
2016: Damian Chazelle/La La Land***, Barry Jenkins/Moonlight, Denis Villeneuve/Arrival, Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea
2017: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water***, Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
2018: Alfonso Cuaron/Roma***, Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War, Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite

Over these 14 years 31 Best Directing nominations have landed with films that screened as a part of TFF with nine wins.

A couple of notes:

2016 was insane with four of the five nominees having come from Telluride films.  The only nominee that year not from a TFF film: Adam McKay for The Big Short

It's good to be one of "The Three Amigos".  The three Mexican directors who have been labeled with this sobriquet: Inarritu, Cuaron and Del Toro account for four of the nine wins. Cuaron twice.  Inarritu has a second directing Oscar for The Revenant which, of course, did not screen at Telluride.

Thursday I'll take a glance at Best Actress nominees from TFF since 2005.





AND AN ASSIST FROM A FRIEND

I am always appreciative when one of the people I have become friends with that are actual journalists have the kindness to reference the blog.  I always see a bump in traffic when something that happens.

With last Friday's first "Ten Bets" for TFF #46 I got a great assist from my friend Sasha Stone at Awards Daily.  Sasha linked the Ten Bets and offered some of her views/analysis.

I also think she sort of promised that I could meet Tom Hanks if he's at the fest with A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.  At least that's what I'm choosing to believe.

Here's the link to her Awards Daily story that's about Friday's post.


Going to wrap this up for today.  More to come on Thursday.


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The Distributors 2019: Many a Firm Part Two / Deadline Looks at Venice / Telluride and Oscar Part One: Best Picture / Forman v. Forman Trailer

Welcome back from the weekend and to July 2019!


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: MANY A FIRM PART TWO:

Today looking at the chances for two films from two different distribution companies: A24 and Annapurna

-A24

After s strong build over five years from 2012-2016. 2017 seemed like a real breakout year for A24 with three films making he TFF lineup.  But the relatively new firm didn't place a film at the fest in 2018.  Here's the history:

2018: No SHOW
2017: Lean on Pete, First Reformed, Lady Bird
2016: Moonlight
2015: Room
2014:  No SHOW
2013: Under the Skin
2012: Ginger and Rosa

Now with the 46th edition of the Telluride Film Festival fast approaching, A24 finds itself in much the same situation as last year when Jonah Hill's Mid 90's seemed their only possible play.  This year A24 looks to have only Robert Eggers" The Lighthouse as a possible TFF contender.

As of right now though, I'm feeling fairly bullish on the film's chances especially in light of its very strong positive critical reaction from Cannes.  Reini Urban's collective Cannes critical response had it at #2 among the entire fest's films trailing only Bong Joon-ho's Palme d'Or winning Parasite.

Meanwhile...

-ANNAPURNA

Annapurna's connection to Telluride in its short tenure has been as a producer of films as opposed to a distributor, which is a fairly recent development for the firm.  TFF films as a production/distribution company include: Destroyer (2018) and Foxcatcher (2014).  As with A24, it feels like Annapurna has a single film that could possibly make TFF #46.

Up until this weekend it was references as the Untitled Miranda July project but as of this past weekend is now called Kijillionaire.  Evan Rachel Wood, Debra Winger and Richard Jenkins star in a crime drama. Brad Pitt and Dede Gardner's Plan B  (12 Years a Slave, Moonlight) is also producing which doesn't hurt the film's TFF profile.

The chances for each of these films...

The Lighthouse-55%
Kijillionaire-40%



DEADLINE LOOKS AT  VENICE (and a little at Telluride)

Deadline writers Nancy Tartaglione and Andreas Wiseman posted a piece last week speculating about what films...especially awards season films...might find their way to the Venice Film Fest.  We probably need to pay heed.

The Venice-Telluride connection has become very solid in recent years.  Last year the two fests shared a total of nine films: First Man, Graves Without a Name, Non-Fiction, Peterloo, Roma, The Favourite, The Great Buster, The Other Side of the Wind and They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead.

Though the changing interactions of film fests and streamers like Netflix and Amazon may alter that symbiosis, I expect we’ll see another substantial connection between the two fests’ lineups again this year.  Consequently, the programming and scheduling for Venice is valuable for TFF clues.

So back to the Deadline story...

Among the films that they suggest have a shot at the Lido are:

Joker
Untitled Noah Baumbach Project- which gets a specific Telluride mention in the article
Against All Enemies
The Aeronauts
Ad Astra
Ford v. Ferrari
The Pope
The King
The Last Thing He Wanted
The Laundromat
Bad Education (which also gets a specific Telluride mention)
Judy
Jojo Rabbit
Ema

Also mentioned are Roman Polanski’s An Officer and a Spy and Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman both of which are unlikely for Telluride for very different reasons.

The complete Deadline article is linked here.

Venice is set to announce its lineup on July 25th.


TELLURIDE AND OSCAR PART ONE: BEST PICTURE

I spent nearly a year working on my Telluride Film Festival history project in 2017-18.  You can see the links for that at the top of this page.

Now, I’ve decided to dive into the relationship between TFF and the Oscars.

Regular readers know that when the fest concludes each year that I devote the blog to following the awards season with emphasis on the films that played at the festival.  Then, once Oscar is done, I return to the primary reason that I started writing this thing back in 2008 which is the attempt to divine the films that will make up the program for The SHOW.

In the course of the “Oscar” portion of the year I have written a lot about how T-ride has been a huge factor in the Best Picture race.  You can’t escape the fest’s track record over the past decade plus.  Green Book’s win last year notwithstanding, I suspect Telluride’s presence in the Best Picture category will continue for the foreseeable future.

Recently, I decided to take a look back at Telluride’s place in the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar race.  I knew on a surface level that the connection had been substantial but I wanted to quantify it.  So I did the homework and put that story up back on June 10th.

After I finished the work on that post, I got to thinking that a bigger look at the Telluride-Oscar connection might be interesting...fun...worth the time.

So, I decided to expand the field and look at how Telluride films have fared in the other seven major Oscar categories: Direction, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay.

I’ll be rolling these out over the next couple of weeks and by way of introducing the collection, here’s a reminder of all the films that have been nominated for Best Picture that played Telluride since 2005 (with winners denoted with ***):

2005: Brokeback Mountain, Capote
2006: Babel
2007: Juno, There Will Be Blood (I always count this and Benjamin Button even though we only saw a portion of each film in tributes to Daniel Day Lewis and David Fincher)
2008: Slumdog Millionaire***, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2009: (first year of expanded field of nominees): An Education, Up in the Air
2010: The King’s Speech***, 127 Hours, Black Swan
2011: The Artist***, The Descendants
2012: Argo***, Amour
2013: 12 Years a Slave***, Gravity,  Nebraska
2014: Birdman***, The Imitation Game
2015: Spotlight***, Room
2016: Moonlight***, Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea
2017: The Shape of Water***, Darkest Hour, Lady Bird
2018: The Favourite, Roma

In the 14 years included here 32 TFF films were nominated for Best Picture with nine of them winning Oscar’s highest honor including the incredible eight straight year run from 2010-2017.

The first TFF film to earn a nomination for Best Picture was Francis Ford Coppola's The Conversation in 1974, the very first Telluride Film Festival.  The second wouldn't happen until 1989 with Jim Sheridan's My Left Foot.

Tomorrow, a look at Best Director candidates from TFFs past.



FORMAN VS. FORMAN TRAILER

The Karlovy Vary Fest is ongoing as I write and one of the docs screening there that has caught my eye as a potential TFF selection is Jakub Henja and Helena Trestikova’s Forman vs. Forman focusing on the life and career of the late, great Milos Forman.

With its screening at the Czech fest, the producers have released a trailer which I have included here from YouTube:

That's your first July MTFB.  More to come tomorrow...

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First Ten Bets for 2019 / The Distributors 2019: Many a Firm Part One / Variety's 31 Flavors of Oscar

Your final Friday of June has arrived...

FIRST TEN BETS FOR 2019

Well, it's here.

My very first "Ten Bets" for TFF #46.

I've been posting my guesses predictions for Telluride in this format since 2011.  Some years I have a better track record than others with the initial stab.  My track record throughout the years on the first Ten Bets looks like this:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10

Last year I landed just below my average accuracy getting five titles correct: The Other Side of the Wind, Peterloo, Cold War, The Old Man and the Gun and The Front Runner.  But I also missed on Beautiful Boy, Sunset, Burning, Capernaum and the stunning miss on Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk.

Other films that I listed on 2018's "just under the Ten Bets" that actually made it to The SHOW included: Boy Erased, The Eyes of Orson Welles, Girl, Shoplifters, and First Man.

Last year's half right/half wrong moved my average over the eight years of Ten Bets to 5.6 correct picks per year.'

And so with that as a backdrop...drumroll please...here's your first Ten Bets for TFF #46


10) The Good Liar
9) Little Women
8) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
7) Jojo Rabbit
6) Family Romance LLC
5) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
4) Lucy in the Sky
3) Varda by Agnes
2) Nomadland
1) Parasite

Other films in serious play: The Goldfinch, Untitled Noah Baumbach Project, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Climb, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Motherless Brooklyn, Ad Astra.


I'll be updating the Ten Bets each Friday for the rest of the summer and, as has become my custom, it will expand as we move through time.  Ultimately the final Ten Bets will come on Wednesday, August 28th with up to 25 films that I will predict or deduce that will make the TFF #46 lineup.


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: MANY A FIRM PART ONE

Casting a glance today at smaller distribution houses and the films that they have that could make the Telluride program:

-COHEN MEDIA GROUP

This company is a consistent T-ride player.  Its history:

2017: The Insult, Face Places
2016: Journey Through French Cinema
2015: Hitchcock/Truffaut, Marguerite, Rams
2014: Magician
2013: No Show
2012: The Attack


So what's in the CMG larder:

Safy Nebbou's Berlin hit Who You Think I Am.  The film focuses on a 50 year old woman (Juliette Binoche) who creates a fake social media profile.

At the moment, it seems to be the only film CMG has but don't discount the possibility that they'll acquire a film this summer that might also make the lineup.


-KINO LORBER

Another group that has been a frequent entrant in Telluride's fest.  Kino Lorber's track record:

2017: Film Worker
2016: Fire at Sea
2015: Ixcanul, Sembene!, Taxi
2014: The Decent One
2013: Burning Bush, La Maison de la Radio, Manuscripts Don't Burn
2010: La Quattro Volte, Poetry
2007: Blind Mountain


After five straight years with at least one film in play at TFF, Kino Lorber was absent last year.  They could return- and have a good chance to do so, this year with a film that scored well at the Berlin International Film Festival. 

Nadav Lapid's Synonyms won the top prize, the Golden Bear, last February.  It has played a bunch of international fests since then.

IMDb describes the film as " A young Israeli man absconds to Paris to escape his nationality, aided by his trusty Franco-Israeli dictionary.


-IFC FILMS

IFC also has, at least for the moment, a single film that seems possible for T-ride and that is Hirokazu Kore-eda's The Truth.   Described as a film that focuses on the stormy reunion between a daughter and her mother who is an actress involved in a sci-fi film in which she plays a woman who never ages.

After Kore-eda's stellar run in 2018 with Shoplifters which played TFF #45, won the Palme d'Or at Cannes  and was Oscar nominated for Best Foreign Language film, you have to think that The Truth would be under real consideration for a return to Telluride for the director.


Chances for today's batch of films:

Synonyms 50%
The Truth 50%
Who You Think I Am 40%

I'll have a look at some of the other smaller distribution outfits on Monday.


VARIETY'S 31 FLAVORS OF OSCAR

Variety's Tim Gray posted a lengthy piece on Tuesday called "Oscar: 31 Upcoming Films that Could Enter the Awards Race". 

There are actually more than 31.
 when you look at all the lists and categorizations.

As you might expect, a slew of potential T-ride selections are on his various category lists.

Among the possible T-ride players that Gray includes are (in the order he lists them):

Untitled Jay Roach Fox News Project
Ford v. Ferrari
Harriet
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Little Women
Judy
The Aeronauts
The Laundromat
The Pope
Atlantics
Untitled Sally Potter Project (Molly)
Jojo Rabbit
The Woman in the Window
Joker...yea, I said it.
Motherless Brooklyn
The Good Liar
1917
Against All Enemies
The King
The Last Thing He Wanted
Les Miserables
The Lighthouse
Lucy in the Sky
Untitled Todd Haynes Project
Untitled Noah Baumbach Project


The complete article is linked here.


That's the Friday MTFB.  I'll have more on Monday.  Have a great weekend!

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The Distributors 2019: Sony Plus / The Irishman Ping Pong / The Good Liar Has a Trailer

Good Thursday World...


THE DISTRIBUTORS: SONY PLUS

...And by "Sony Plus" I mean their affiliated companies Columbia and TriStar

The Sony Pictures group also includes Sony Pictures Classics, but as it is Sony's indie branch, I have dealt with it separately in an earlier post (June 11th).

Columbia has the U.S. distribution for Greta Gerwig's Little Women and though Columbia has a thin resume with Telluride, it's not invisible having just screened Jason Reitman's The Front Runner and Yann Damange's White Boy Rick last year at TFF #45.  In both cases, the director had previous work at Telluride.  Reitman a lot.

So the Gerwig connection could prove as potent this year after her success at Telluride with Lady Bird (2017- five Oscar nominations including Best Picture).  TFF also loved her as a guest as the star of Noah Baumbach's Frances Ha in 2012.


Meanwhile, the other Sony affiliate that has a film in the discussion for Telluride is Marielle Heller's A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood starring Tom Hanks as  children's television icon Fred Rogers.  Despite zero history between TriStar and TFF, Heller's presence (and perhaps Hanks') makes me think that it could be a consideration.  Last year Heller had a nifty run with Can You Ever Forgive Me? with that film debuting at Telluride and earning three Oscar nominations including one for Melissa McCarthy for Best Actress.

I'm currently putting their chances as:

Little Women 50%
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 40%


Tomorrow, I'll take a look at a bunch of smaller specialty houses that have films in play.


THE IRISHMAN PING PONG

I'd pretty much reached the conclusion and reported that Martin Scorsese's The Irishman was off the books as far as Telluride was concerned and that hasn't changed.  The last couple of days, however, have been a funny back and forth as to whether it has a release date and an Indiewire story that flat says no fall film fests.

First the release date hoody-hoo.  A number of outlets reported on Tuesday that one of the film's producers, Irwin Winkler, was on record as saying that the film would have a Thanksgiving release.  That gave rise to some speculation that the film's visual effects might be done in time for Scorsese to screen it at the New York Film Fest (which has seemed like the natural landing place all along).

But Netflix and Scorsese reps strongly stated that there are still no firm release plans.

I have linked the updated stories about the release date ping pong here from The Playlist and for The Film Stage.

And here is the Anne Thompson story from Indiewire that flat says no Telluride, Venice, Toronto or New York.



THE GOOD LIAR HAS A TRAILER

Starring Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren, Bill Condon's The Good Liar has been on my Telluride radar for a bit.  The film is set for release on Nov. 15th and is being domestically distributed by Warner Bros.

The film has McKellen as a con man and Mirren as his mark but things don't go according to his plans.

New Line Cinema dropped the first trailer for the film yesterday.  Here it is via YouTube:

It looks...good.

Condon is an Oscar winner for writing the screenplay for Gods and Monsters.  He also was nominated for Chicago.


The Good Liar's IMDb page is here.


That's your Thursday MTFB.  More tomorrow including the season's first Ten Bets.


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The Distributors 2019: 20th Century Fox / Lucy in the Sky and This Fall / Nuggets from Venice Speculation

Welcome...


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: 20TH CENTURY FOX

Or...you know...Disney.

I'm taking a look at films that were at 20th Century Fox that are now, due to Disney's acquisition...part of Disney.  It has meaning as Disney and Telluride really have no history (at least in the time I've been attending TFF).  20th Century Fox has only a small footprint in as far as Telluride is concerned.

But 20th Century Fox has three solid films that are probably going to be a part of the end of the year awards conversation and they may try to include Telluride in their plans for those films.  They are:

James Gray's Ad Astra (more about it below) dated for release on Sept. 20th
Joe Wright's The Woman in the Window dated Oct. 4th
James Mangold's Ford v. Ferrari dated Nov. 15th

Two of the three directors have played Telluride in the past with Joe Wright their most recently with Darkest Hour.  Mangold their many years back with Walk the Line and even James Gray was in Telluride in 2012 for the tribute to Marion Cotillard.

So, the factors I look at to make a determination about whether a film is a likely T-ride choice are a mixed bag.

Ultimately, call Ad Astra the most likely prospect (again, see below) at 40%.
The others...
The Woman in the Window 30%
Ford v. Ferrari 30%


LUCY IN THE SKY AND THIS FALL

Natalie Portman in Lucy in the Sky (via IMDb)

I've had my eye on this (back when it was Untitled Noah Hawley Project and then when it became Pale Blue Dot) and just in the last day or so noticed a little more heat on Lucy's Telluride chances.  Ben Travers writing for Indiewire reported on Sunday that "Fox Searchlight is targeting the fall festival circuit for the film's debut".

In my Fox Searchlight assessment back on June 13th, I had Lucy in the Sky listed as having a 40% chance of making the Telluride lineup.  I might have to bump that to 45% in light of the Indiewire story and Fox Searchlight's history with Telluride.

The Travers piece in Indiewire is linked here.

Here's the trailer for the film that is as yet undated for release.

NUGGETS FROM VENICE SPECULATION

As we edge closer to announcements of films for both Venice and Toronto the speculation about what films will go where is starting to grow.  Case in point was World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy spec piece about all the fall film fests that he originally posted on June 21st and has continued to update.  That's linked here.

Last week Roger Friedman reported at ShowBiz 411 that Venice was looking strongly looking at programming Roman Polanski's An Officer and a Spy not that I think that suggests a Telluride play for that film. 

What was interesting was the mention of a couple of other films in the article.  Friedman reports that we can all give up on The Irishman for Venice (and by extension Telluride) as Scrosese does not look like he'll be done with the visual effects in time.The other note is that the notion that James Gray's Ad Astra will play Venice is gaining traction.  Should that happen, that may signal an increased likelihood that the space epic starring Brad Pitt might land in the Rockies on Labor Day weekend.

Something to ponder.


Tuesday's MTFB is in the books back on Thursday.


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The Distributors 2019: Warner Bros / The Aeronauts Flies Into the Conversation / Country Music Preview

I'm back.

I was in Dallas, Texas all of last week working as a part of the staff for the National Speech and Debate Association's National Speech Tournament.  It was good.

THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: WARNER BROS.

This week I'm continuing to look at film production/distribution companies whose past record and current stash of films point to a possible choice for the 46th Telluride Film Festival.  Up until today's post I have been focused on specialty firms and streaming services.  Today is our first look at a major studio: Warner Bros.  Warners has, over the past half dozen years or so, made a mark on the festival. 

Here's their recent run at Telluride:

2018: No Show

2017: No Show

2016: Sully

2015 Black Mass

2014: No Show

2013: Gravity, Prisoners

2012: Argo

Warner Independent played Telluride in 2006 with Infamous and 2007 with Rails and Ties.

Last year Warners only likely Telluride play was A Star Is Born and we all know that didn't happen.

Despite not having a film at Telluride the past two years, 2019 could mark the return of the WB to the San Juans with four films that should be considered as possibles:

Bill Condon's The Good Liar starring Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren set for releases on Nov. 15th.  Condon has Telluride history (Kinsey-2004).

John Crowley's The Goldfinch starring Nicole Kidman and Ansel Elgort set for release Sept. 13th.  Crowley has Telluride history (Intermission-2003).

Edward Norton's Motherless Brooklyn starring Norton, Bruce Willis, Alec Baldwin and more.  It is set for release on Nov. 1.  Norton has no history with Telluride as a director - this is his second feature as a director- and I can't find any indication that Norton has been a guest of the fest in the past.  He has appeared in films that have played the festival: Birdman (2014), Frida (2002).  Also of note, Motherless Brooklyn is based on the novel by Jonathan Lethem who served as the fest's Guest Director last year.  That could be a signal.

Gavin O'Connor's Torrance (now reportedly renamed Long Time Coming) starring Ben Affleck as a former star athlete looking for redemption.  Affleck also acts as a producer for the film and his past success with Argo, which started its run to Oscar glory at Telluride, could make it a potential SHOW choice.

I honestly think any of the three could make the lineup and this could be the second time Warners lands more than a single film at TFF.

Chances:

The Goldfinch 60%
Motherless Brooklyn 50%
The Good Liar 40%
Long Time Coming 25%



THE AERONAUTS

I posted my analysis for Amazon Studios Telluride chances on June 17th and in it,a film I didn't even mention is Tom Harper's The Aeronauts.

Couple of reasons for that:  Amazon is loaded with films that have a shot at Telluride and the film, which has a logline that reads like a straight thriller/action-adventure flick, just didn't seem like a film and director Tom Harper, to the best of my knowledge hasn't been near the festival in the past.

But after news this weekend, it seems that I may have miscalculated.

The International Film Critique Twitter account tweeted that:

If it were to be chosen to open Venice that means I definitely need to pay attention as a number of films that have been the Venice opener in recent years have then jumped to Telluride: Birdman, Gravity, La La Land, First Man, Downsizing.  So, should this be the choice for Venice, I'd better pay attention.

Adding fuel to the fuel to the fire was reporting from World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy.

Ruimy updated a fest-centric article from late May with news of The Aeronauts (as well as The Good Liar and Jojo Rabbit).  That updated post is linked here.  Ruimy also posted a small blurb about the film yesterday suggesting he's thinking that it might make the T-ride lineup.  See that here.

Put The Aeronauts on the list that I originally published a week ago for Amazon Studios as follows:

The Goldfinch 60%
Radioactive 50%
Les Miserables 40% (Cannes prize winner: Jury Prize)
Against All Enemies 40%
The Report 35%
The Aeronauts 30%

COUNTRY MUSIC PREVIEW

PBS has released a 25 minute preview of Ken Burns' upcoming multi-party documentary : Country Music.  Here's a link that will get you to the preview:

Ken Burns' Country Music on PBS

I still believe there's a reasonable chance that TFF #46 attendees may be able to see at least part of the doc over Labor Day weekend.

That's a wrap for MTFB on this Monday.  More on its way to you tomorrow and coming FRIDAY...the first TFF #46 Ten Bets list of the summer!

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