Thursday, January 17, 2019

Oscar Predictions: Specialty Categories / Latest Gurus of Gold / Directors Interviews

Oscar nomination announcements are Tuesday!


Here are my latest predictions for Oscar nominations in the specialty categories.  Telluride films are Bold.  All of these categories will have five nominees except Makeup/Hair which will have three.


1) Roma
2) A Star Is Born
3) First Man
4) Cold War
5) The Favourite
6) Black Panther

Possible: If Beale Street Could Talk


1) The Favourite
2) Mary Poppins Returns
3) Black Panther
4) Mary Queen of Scots
5) Bohemian Rhapsody
6) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Possible: BlacKkKlansman Vice, If Beale Street Could Talk,  


1) A Star Is Born
2) Roma
3) Vice
4) BlacKkKlansman
5) First Man
6) The Favourite

Possible: Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther


1) Vice
2) Black Panther
3) Mary Queen of Scots
4) Bohemian Rhapsody

Possible: Border, Stan and Ollie, Suspiria


1) If Beale Street Could Talk
2) First Man
3) Mary Poppins Returns
4) Isle of Dogs
5) Black Panther
6) BlacKkKlansman

Possible: A Quiet Place, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs


1) Shallow/A Star Is Born
2) All the Stars/Black Panther
3) I'll Fight/RBG
4) Girl in the Movies/Dumplin'
5) Trip a Little Light Fantastic/Mary Poppins Returns
6) Where Lost Things Go/Mary Poppins Return

Possible: Revelation/Boy Erased


1) The Favourite
2) Mary Poppins Returns
3) First Man
4) Black Panther
5) Roma
6) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Possible: BlacKkKlansman


1) First Man
2) A Quiet Place
3) Black Panther
4) Roma
5) Mary Poppins Returns
6) Ready Player One

Possible: A Star Is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, Annihilation


1) A Star Is Born
2) First Man
3) Mary Poppins Returns
4) Roma
5) A Quiet Place
6) Black Panther

Possible: Bohemian Rhapsody


1) First Man
2) Black Panther
3) Ready Player One
4) Avengers: Infinity War
5) Mary Poppins Returns
6) Solo: A Star Wars Story

Possible: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

I'll have my )mostly) final predictions on Monday for all Oscar categories.


The upcoming Gurus of Gold post from Movie City News will focus on the Oscar acting categories and Best Picture.  Not sure exactly when it will go up.  Likely in the next day or two.  Jump on over to their site to check out last week's Gurus and a look from me and 12 other Oscar experts.  


As we steer the ship toward Tuesday's Oscar nominations reveal, here's a look a three recent interviews from directors whose films played TFF #45 and are now a part of the awards conversation:

From The Hollywood Reporter, Roma's Alfonso Cuaron takes us on a tour of his the Mexico City that serves as a setting for the film:

From The New Yorker, Elaina Patton talks to Cold War director Pawel Pawlikowski.  Linked here.

And from The Playlist, Griffin Schiller talks to First Man director Damien Chazelle (and also a bit with actress Claire Foy).  That is linked here.

That's today's MTFB.  A reminder again that next Monday's regularly scheduled post I'll have (mostly) final Oscar predictions.


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Monday, January 14, 2019

Updated Oscar Predictions for Supporting and Screenplays / Critics Choice Awards and Telluride / First Man Stan / 100 2019 Films from The Film Stage

It's an MTFB Monday...


Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for the Supporting Acting and Screenplay races. TFF Films are Bold.


1) Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
2) Amy Adams/Vice
3) Rachel Weisz/The Favourite
4) Emma Stone/The Favourite
5) Claire Foy/First Man

In Contention: Margot Robbie/Mary Queen of Scots, Nicole Kidman/Boy Erased, Tomasin Harcourt McKenzie/Leave No Trace, Emily Blunt/A Quiet Place


1) Mahershala Ali/Green Book
2) Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3) Sam Elliott/A Star Is Born
4) Adam Driver/BlacKkKlansman
5) Timothee Chalamet/Beautiful Boy

In Contention: Sam Rockwell/Vice, Michael B. Jordan/Black Panther


1) The Favourite
2) Green Book
3) Roma
4) Vice
5) First Reformed

In Contention: Eighth Grade, A Quiet Place


1) BlacKkKlansman
2) If Beale Street Could Talk
3) A Star Is Born
4) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5) First Man

In Contention: Black Panther, Leave No Trace, Crazy Rich Asians, The Death of Stalin

I'll have a big set of Oscar nomination predictions on Thursday and, of course, a complete final set of nomination predictions for all 24 categories a week from today.  Also...stay tuned for my picks on the Movie City News Gurus o' Gold charts.


Here are the winners of last night's Critics Choice Awards from the Broadcast Film Critics Association (Telluride winners in Bold):

Best Picture: Roma
Direction: Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
Actress: (TIE) Glenn Close/The Wife. Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born
Actor: Christian Bale/Vice
Supporting Actress: Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Green Book
Foreign Film: Roma
Animated Film: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
Young Actor/Actress: Elsie Fisher/Eighth Grade
Ensemble: The Favourite
Original Screenplay: Paul Schrader/First Reformed
Adapted Screenplay: Barry Jenkins/If Beale Street Could Talk
Cinematography: Roma
Production Design: Black Panther
Editing: First Man
Costume Design: Black Panther
Makeup/Hair: Vice
Visual Effects: Black Panther
Action Movie: Mission Impossible-Fallout
Comedy Film: Crazy Rich Asians
Actress in a Comedy: Olivia Colman/The Favourite
Actor in a Comedy: Christian Bale/Vice
SciFi/Horror Movie: A Quiet Place
Song: Shallow/A Star Is Born
Score: First Man

Telluride films won nine Critics Choice awards (including one for TFF #44 film First Reformed).

Cuaron's Roma was the night's big winner with four awards including Best Picture and Direction.

Other films with multiple wins were:

Black Panther-3
First Man-2
The Favourite-2
If Beale Street Could Talk-2
A Star Is Born-2

Here is coverage from last night's awards from:


Awards Daily



I'm including a couple of links to First Man oriented posts/stories/interviews as I am unapologetically in its corner as we head into the last few days of Oscar voting.  I am, as the kids say in the parlance of our times, stanning for the film and performers...

Indiewire's Kate Erbland talks to Oscar winning (Spotlight) screen writer Josh Singer.

The L.A. Times' Glenn Whipp talks to star Ryan Gosling and director Damien Chazelle.

Kate Erbland's Indiewire story from right after First Man's Toronto screening.

And just because I really like the film and performances and think it should also make the final Oscar lineup for best picture...

Here's a story about Melissa McCarthy's casting in Marielle Heller's Can You Ever Forgive Me? from The Hollywood Reporters' Pamela McClintock.


The Film Stage has posted its long 100 Most Anticipated Films of 2019 list.  From that collection of titles here are a dozen titles that feel like (at least this far out) decent best to make the TFF #46 list:

#98-The Woman in the Window
#96-The Kindness of Strangers
#93-Lucy in the Sky
#80-Against All Enemies
#49-A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
#16-The Truth
#15-Dry Run
#7- Little Women

Of course there are others on the list that I think might be in play come Labor Day (The Report, Motherless Brooklyn) and others that I'd love to see make TFF #46 (Radegund, The Irishman).

The complete 100 film list plus honorable mentions is linked here.

That's your MTFB fix for this Monday.  I'll have more on Thursday including a substantial Oscar predictions update...lots of categories as we countdown to Oscar nomination morning on Jan. 22nd.


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Thursday, January 10, 2019

Guilds and More Guilds / BAFTA Nominates / Golden Globe Analysis

Welcome back to MTFB...


Since Monday's post a number of the guilds that make up workers in the film world have named their nominees for excellence in their areas of expertise.  Here's a note about each of those beginning with the Director's Guild of America (DGA).

The DGA nominees included these TFF #45 films:

On Monday the DGA named their documentary nominees which included Elizabeth Chai Vasarheyli and Jimmy Chin for Free Solo.

The Writers Guild nominees included from Telluride:

Roma for Original Screenplay and Can You Forgive Me? for Adapted Screenplay.

Others nominated for Original Screenplay included: Eighth Grade, Green Book, A Quiet Place and Vice.  Others nominated for Adapted Screenplay are: BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, If Beale Street Could Talk and A Star Is Born.

The American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) named four TFF #45 films for their award for 2018:  Roma, Cold War, The Favourite and First Man.  The other nominee was A Star Is Born.

Additionally, Girl and TFF #44 film The Rider were named for the ASC Spotlight Award

The Art Directors Guild (ADG) named a number of TFF films for consideration for their awards in  the Period Film Category TFF nominated films were: First Man, The Favourite and Roma. 

Complete nominees in all categories are here from Variety

Cinema Audio Society nominees included First Man and Free Solo.  The full list of CAS nominees is linked here from Awards Daily.


Early Wednesday morning the British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their film nominees for 2018.  TFF #45 hit The Favourite led the field with 12 nominations.  Roma and First Man each had seven.  Other TFF #45 films also made the grade for nominations.  Here's the BAFTA/TFF #45 list:

The Favourite (12): Best Film, Best British Film, Direction, Original Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actress (2), Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Costume, Makeup/Hair.

Roma (7): Best Film, Best Film Not in the English Language, Direction, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design.

First Man (7): Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects.

Cold War (4): Best Film Not in the English Language, Direction, Original Screenplay, Cinematography.

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3): Adapted Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actress.

And four TFF #45 films that earned a single BAFTA nomination:

Dogman: Best Film Not in the English Language
Shoplifters: Best Film Not in the English Language
Free Solos: Best Documentary
The Field: Best British Short Film

TFF #45 films earned 37 BAFTA nominations in total.

Here's the complete coverage of the BAFTA announcement from Indiewire.

Last year TFF #44 films had 31 BAFTA nominations including 12 for eventual Best Picture Oscar winner The Shape of Water.


Here are a sampling of takes from the results if last Sunday's Golden Globe results:

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Kristopher Tapley and Michael Schnieder/Variety

Joyce Eng/Gold Derby

Alissa Wilkinson/Vox

Brendan Morrow/The Week

That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  I'll have more for you on Monday.


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Monday, January 7, 2019

Golden Globes And TFF / Producers Guild Names Nominees / Gurus o' Gold / ACE Nominates for Eddies / New Video (Old Man and the Gun) and Trailer (Cold War) / Tapley's New Predix for Oscar

Week Two of the New Year begins today...hope it's working out for you.  OSCAR voting starts TODAY! Editors (see below) Cinematographers, Sound Editors, Writers and Directors Guilds all announce their 2018 nominees today.


The Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out its annual Golden Globe awards for excellence in film and television last night.  TFF films are Bold.

Best Film/Drama: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Film Comedy/Musical: Green Book
Best Actress/Drama: Glenn Close/The Wife
Best Actress Comedy/Musical: Olivia Colman/The Favourite
Best Actor/Drama: Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Actor Musical/Drama: Christian Bale/Vice
Best Supporting Actress: Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Green Book
Best Direction: Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
Best Screenplay: Green Book
Best Foreign Film: Roma
Best Animated Film: Spiderman; Into the Spider verse
Best Score: First Man
Best Song: Shallow from A Star Is Born

Overall, Telluride films scored a total of four Globes: Roma (2-Foreign Language Film and Direction), The Favourite (1-Best ACtress/Musical-Comedy) and First Man (1-Best Score).  Green Book had three and Bohemian Rhapsody had two and they were big awards for Best Film/Drama and Best Actor Drama.

A Star Is Born was shut out of wins in the four main categories it was nominated for (Picture/Daram, Actress/Drama, Supporting Actor and Direction winning only Best Song.  That was something of a stunner as the Gurus o' Gold had the film as a unanimous favorite to win Best Picture/Drama.


Friday the Producers Guild of America (PGA) named their nominees for a variety of Film and Television categories.  Their 10 film list for Best of 2018:

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
A Quiet Place
A Star Is Born

The documentaries nominated by the PGA were (previously announced on Nov. 20th):

The Dawn Wall
Free Solo
Into the Okavango
Three Identical Strangers
Won't You Be My Neighbor

Animated Features nominated:

Dr. Seuss' The Grinch
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse

Three TFF #45 films made the PGA cut: The Favourite and Roma among theatrical films and Free Solo among documentaries.

Complete nominees coverage is linked here from Indiewire.


The latest Movie City News' Gurus o' Gold went up on Saturday and included predictions for the two Best Picture Golden Globes categories.  Those, of course, are now known.  Also included is the latest snapshot of the Oscar Best Picture race.

Take a gander at the most recent Gurus guesses here.


The American Cinema Editors named their nominees fro excellence in film editing for film and television this morning.  TFF #45 films nominated included: Roma and First Man in the Film/Drama category, The Favourite in the Film/Comedy category, Free Solo in the Documentary category and in the Non-theatrical film category: A Final Cut for Orson: 40 Years in the Making, a short documentary about the recovery of Orson Welles The Other Side of the Wind.

The complete list of nominees is linked here from The Wrap.


Fox Searchlight released nine and a half minutes or so of David Lowery's The Old Man and the Gun on Friday.  Here that is from YouTube:

The film is now available to stream.

Meanwhile, Amazon Studios dropped a new trailer for Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War this weekend as well.  Here it is:


Variety's InContention Awards expert, Kristopher Tapley had updated Oscar predictions Saturday ahead of the Golden Globes.

Telluride films included in his predictions include:

Roma (8): Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Foreign Language Film

The Favourite (7): Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress (both Stone and Weisz), Original Screenplay, Costumes, Production Design

First Man (6): Cinematography, Film Editing, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3): Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay

Cold War (3): Direction, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film

First Reformed (2): Actor, Original Screenplay***TFF #44

Shoplifters (1): Foreign Language Film

Free Solo (1): Documentary

Border (1); Makeup/Hair

A couple of notes...

If Tapley is 100% accurate, TFF #45 feature films earn 30 Oscar nominations.  TFF #44 (First Reformed) gets 2.

Tapley has no picks in the Shorts categories in this latest set of predictions and TFF #45 could snag an additional nomination or two there.

First Man now looks like it will be the most nominated film that doesn't get a Best Picture nomination.  I am dismayed.

I'm also a little surprised that both Can You Ever Forgive Me with a probable two acting nominations and a screenplay nod isn't more in the Best Picture conversation.  Same for First Reformed for the same reasons.

Tapley's inclusion of Pawlikowski for his direction of Cold War is a bold choice but I'd be stunned if that actually happens.

Here's Tapley's complete set of Oscar predictions.

And speaking of Tapley, Kris has kept up an annual tradition by posting his selections for the ten best individual shots from 2018 films at Variety.  That list with commentary went up on the site in late December.

Among the films/shots included were TFF #45 and TFF #44 films (photos from Tapley's post):

At #10-First Man:

At #8- First Reformed (from TFF #44):

At #7- Cold War:

At #3- Roma

The top shot in Tapley's list came from the horror film Hereditary.

The complete post is here.

That's this Monday's MTFB.  I'll have more on Thursday.


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Thursday, January 3, 2019

Reminders as we head into 2019 / 150 Foreign Films / Golden Globes on Sunday / 52 Directors on 2018 Films


I took a quick step back at the last couple of months and have re-posted 2019 speculative pieces (with an update here and there) about what films might be in consideration to make the lineup at TFF #46:

THE PLAYLIST 100 (from my Dec. 6th post)

The annual review of their 100 most anticipated films for the new year came down for The Playlist earlier this week and, as you might expect, I have culled the list for films that seem like they should be on our radar for TFF #46.

The staff specifically mentions Telluride as a possible destination for only three films:

#39: Pale Blue Dot (now titled: Lucy in the Sky)
#26: The untitled Noah Baumbach project
#11: The Last Thing He Wanted

Among the other 97 films listed, the following are the ones that seem to me to be most likely:

#100: The Glorias: A Life on the Road
#91: Resistance
#79: My Zoe
#66: Mainstream
#64: Against All Enemies
#63: The Woman in the Window
#59: The Trial of the Chicago 7 (not likely as production has been delayed)
#52: Motherless Brooklyn
#40: The Goldfinch
#34: You Are My Friend (Now titled: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
#33: Antlers
#30: Ema
#29: Waiting for the Barbarians
#24: The King
#20: Radegund
#19: Bergman Island
#17: The Truth
#15: The Laundromat
#13: Triple Frontier (off the list, release dated for Mar. 13th)
#7: Little Women
#2: The Irishman

The complete list of 100 films (plus some honorable mentions) from The Playlist is linked here.

WELLS AND RUIMY (from my Nov. 26th post)

I saw that Jeff Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere and Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel had both created and published lists of anticipated 2019 titles...which seems like bait I can't ignore.  Sooo...

I took a look at both lists (which share a huge number of titles) and here are twelve films that seem/sound like they might be candidates for inclusion for TFF #46:

All You Need Is Love.  The project (with Beatles music as a central part of the film) could make TFF #46 because it's from Danny Boyle who has had a significant history with the fest: Slumdog Millionaire, 127 Hours, Steve Jobs.  The film is currently scheduled for U.S. release on Sept. 13th.

The True American from Pablo Larrain...if it's ready.  Larrain, like Boyle, has had a strong history with TFF: No, Neruda.  Both this and the above mentioned Boyle project are produced by Annapurna Pictures which has also had a presence at Telluride: Foxcatcher, Destroyer.

You Are My Friend (now titled A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood):  From Marielle Heller who just has had her Telluride introduction with Can You Ever Forgive Me?  The film stars Tom Hanks (who was at TFF with Sully in 2016) as Fred Rogers.  The film has an awards and TFF friendly release date of Oct. 18th.

Little Women: Greta Gerwig's anticipated take on the Louisa May Alcott classic.  With the reception that her directorial debut Lady Bird received at TFF in 2017 you have to think this is a real possibility.  Scheduled for release on Dec. 25th.

The Woman in the Window: director Joe Wright's follow-up to his 2017 Darkest Hour which played TFF and earned six Oscar nominations and won two including Gary Oldman's Best Actor win.  The film is set for release on Oct. 4th.  The film's plot sounds much a take on Hitchcock's Rear Window and the cast is ridiculously stunning: Julianne Moore, Amy Adams and Gary Oldman.

NOPE...SET TO DROP AT SUNDANCE: Velvet Buzzsaw: From writer-director Dan Gilroy.  I'm mostly thinking this could play because Gilroy re-teams with his Nightcrawler co-conspirators Jake Gyllenhaal and Rene Russo.  The film is set in the contemporary art scene and is described as a horror/thriller.  Netflix is producing which doesn't hurt its TFF chances if the recent past is any indication.

Pale Blue Dot (now titled Lucy in the Sky)  Fargo (the TV version) guru Noah Hawley jumps into feature film making with Natalie Portman starring as an astronaut having issues once she returns from space.  The film is from Fox Searchlight which means we have to consider it a TFF possibility.

Bergman Island: Mia Hansen-Love's latest project and a with her TFF pedigree (Goodbye First Love, Things to Come), a film we should consider.  Mia Wasikowska and Vicky Krieps star.

AGAIN...NOPE...RELEASE IS IN MARCH NOW....Triple Frontier:  a long gestating project from J.C. Chandor.  It's been developed by Netflix and stars Ben Affleck and Oscar Isaac among others about an attempt to overturn the drug trade in South America.  Chandor was in T-ride in 2014 with All Is Lost and both Affleck (Argo) and Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis) have been as well.

And then here are these three huge projects...

The Goldfinch:  The film adaptation of the Pulitzer Prize winning novel by Donna Tartt.  John Crowley, who broke through with Brooklyn in 2015, directs.  The cast includes Nicole Kidman (this year at TFF with Destroyer and Boy Erased) and Sarah Paulson.  The film is from Amazon and is set for release on Oct. 11th which makes a T-ride play possible.

Radegund:  Terrence Malick's latest and a film I have been waiting for from him for some time now...surprise, surprise.  The true story of a German conscientious objector in World War II could appear in 2019...or not.  I wouldn't be surprised if it was a selection for Cannes.

The Irishman:  Martin Scorsese's Netflix joint.  Probably an unrealistic dream for a Telluride play but a guy has to hope.  DeNiro, Pacino, Pesci and Keitel and more.  The best chance that it plays is that it is from Netflix which, again, doesn't hurt its chances for Telluride.  Netflix has to be happy, at least so far, with how Roma played TFF which probably helps too.

The complete Hollywood Elsewhere post is here.

The complete World of Reel post is here.


Ioncinema has undertaken the mammoth task of laying out 150 foreign films to anticipate in 2019.  The list is ongoing and not yet complete at their site. 

Among the early films listed are Xavier Dolan's Matthias and Maxime, Michel Hazanavicius' The Lost Prince and Zhang Yimou's One Second which all could make a splash over Labor Day weekend in Telluride.

Here's the first of the links from Ioncinema.


I honestly have no real idea how these 90+ HFPA members are going to play this on Sunday.  If I had to guess, I'm thinking A Star Is Born is likely to have a big night.

Here's a reminder of the TFF films/performers who are nominated for Golden Globes:

The Favourite (5):  Best Film-Musical or Comedy, Best Actress-Musical or Comedy (Colman), Best Supporting Actress (Stone and Weisz), Screenplay

Roma (3): Foreign Language, Direction, Screenplay

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (2):  Best Actress-Musical or Comedy (McCarthy), Best Supporting Actor (Grant)

Boy Erased (2): Best Actor-Drama (Hedges), Best Song

First Man (2): Best Supporting Actress (Foy), Best Score

Destroyer (1): Best Actress-Drama (Kidman)

The Old Man and the Gun (1): Best Actor-Musical or Comedy (Redford)

Girl (1): Best Foreign Language Film

Shoplifters (1): Best Foreign Language Film

TFF #45 films earn 18 Globe nominations.  I'll have some sort of breakdown and commentary in Monday's post.


The Playlist recent posted an article titled "52 Directors Pick Their Favorite Movies of 2018".  The results are not particularly surprising...Roma is named as the favorite from eight directors including Guillermo Del Toro, Pedro Almodovar, Lynne Ramsay, Rebecca Miller and Edgar Wright.

Several of the respondents listed films in alphabetically order.  Some listed favorite performances or moments.  One even included mention of a couple of plays.

Also mentioned by at least one director as their favorite 2019 film from among Telluride offerings: The Favourite, First Man, Cold War, The Other Side of the Wind and TFF #44's First Reformed.

The complete article from The Playlist is here.

That's MTFB for this first Thursday in 2019.  Happy New Year to all!


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Monday, December 31, 2018

My Last Oscar Predix for 2018 / Looking at Feinberg's Forecast / Directors' Takes

Welcome to the last day of 2018 and Happy New Year!


I'm closing out 2018 with a look at up-to-the-minute Oscar Predictions for the four most major categories: Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor.

Actual voting begins in a week and the nomination announcement is just three weeks away (Jan. 22).

My last publication in this space for these categories was back on Dec. 10th.

Each film's past position is listed in parentheses and TFF #45 films are Bold.


1) A Star Is Born (1)
2) Roma (2)
3) BlacKkKlansman (6)
4) Green Book (3)
5) Black Panther (5)
6) The Favourite (4)
7) Vice (8)
8) If Beale Street Could Talk (7)
9) Bohemian Rhapsody (-)
10) First Man (-)

Other possibles: First Reformed, Mary Poppins Returns, Can You Ever Forgive Me?


1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma (1)
2) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (2)
3) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman (3)
4) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite (5)
5) Peter Farrelly/Green Book (-)

Other possibles: Ryan Coogler/Black Panther, Adam McKay/Vice, Barry Jenkins/If Beale Street Could Talk, Damien Chazelle/First Man


1) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born (2)
2) Glenn Close/The Wife (1)
3) Olivia Colman/The Favourite (3)
4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4)
5) Emily Blunt/Mary Poppins Returns (5)

Other possibles: Yalitza Aparicio/Roma, Nicole Kidman/Destroyer, Toni Collette/Hereditary


1) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (2)
2) Christian Bale/Vice (1)
3) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody (5)
4) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book (3)
5) Ethan Hawke/First Reformed (4)

Other possibles: John David Washington/BlacKkKlansman, Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling/First Man


Scott Feinberg, who is the awards genius at The Hollywood Reporter recently posted his end-of-the-year take on the Oscar season for all 24 Oscar categories.  Here's how Scott assesses the Oscar fates of TFF #45 films assuming 10 Best Picture nominees:

First Man (8): Best Picture, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects.

Roma (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Aparicio), Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography, Production Design

The Favourite (7): Best Picture, Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (Stone and Weisz), Original Screenplay, Costumes, Production Design

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3): Actress (McCarthy), Supporting Actor (Grant), Adapted Screenplay

Cold War (2): Foreign Language Film, Cinematography

Single nominations for:
Boy Erased- Supporting Actress (Kidman)
Shoplifters-Foreign Language Film
Free Solo-Documentary Feature
Caroline-Live Action Short
Fauve-Live Action Short

That's a total of 33 predicted nominations for TFF #45.

The complete set of Feinberg's Forecast at The Hollywood Reporter is linked here.


Continuing my recent trend of linking interviews and profiles of artists from TFF #45 films that are being spotlighted this awards season...

Cold War's Pawel Pawlikowski from Indiewire

Destroyer's Karyn Kusama from Deadline

That's your last MTFB for 2018.  More to come in 2019.


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Thursday, December 27, 2018

The Latest from Gold Derby / Interviews

Welcome to the Lull...that week between Christmas and New Years...


It's not a secret that I have been really pleased to be included as an "Oscar Guru" for MOvie City News' Gurus o' Gold this Oscar season but I'd also be silly to ignore the Oscarologists compendium that is Gold Derby.  So, I'm not.

I took a look at their latest collective predictions and this is where there set of pros have Telluride films situated in their prognostications as 2018 comes to a close.

I am assuming nine films make the Best Picture field;

Leading the way for TFF #45 films in Gold Derby's estimation are both The Favourite and First Man.  Both films are pegged fro 10 nominations.  Roma is close behind with a projected eight nominations.

The Favourite is predicted for: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress (for both Stone and Weisz), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing and Production Design.

The Derby has First Man predicted for: Best Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.

Roma is picked for: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound Editing and Foreign Language Film.

Can You Ever Forgive Me? is named thrice: Actress, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay.

Single nominations are predicted for:

Free Solo: Best Documentary Feature
Cold War: Best Foreign Language Film
Shoplifters: Best Foreign Language Film
Caroline: Best Live Action Short

That's a total of 35 predicted nominations for TFF #45 films.

Additionally, First Reformed from TFF #44 is predicted to earn nominations for Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay.

The complete latest Gold Derby odds are linked here.


Damien Chazelle/First Man with

Olivia Colman, Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz/The Favourite with The Hollywood Reporter

Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War with Vox

Alfonso Cuaron et. al./Roma with Indiewire

Thanks for reading.  More on Monday.


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Monday, December 24, 2018

A Very Short Post on Dec. 24th: New Gurus / The Film Stage 50 for 2018

Good Christmas Eve to everyone...

Just a short post today as both flu and Holiday plans have meant a truncated MTFB today.


There's a new Gurus of Gold for this holiday week up at Movie City News.  It covers the Big Eight categories; Picture, Direction, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Screenplays.

Here's the link to the New Gurus post.


The Film Stage published its list of the 50 best films from 2018 over the weekend.  Included on that list:

#46-The Old Man and the Gun
#34 First Man
#20 The Rider (TFF #44)
#17 The Favourite
#14 Shoplifters
#8 Cold War
#7 The Other Side of the Wind
#2 Roma
#1 First Reformed (TFF #44)

The complete list is here.

That's all for today.  MTFB should be back to what passes for normal on Thursday.


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Thursday, December 20, 2018

Oscar Short Lists and TFF #45 / Indiewire's Critics' Poll for 2018 Says TFF #45 Was Gooood / First Man

How's your week going?


As I mentioned in my last post, the Oscar peeps named their short lists in nine categories on Monday electing to do so all in one wave rather than separately.  Consequently, here's a snapshot of where films from TFF landed in the categories that were included among the nine:

Documentary (15 on the short list): Free Solo
Foreign Language  (9 on the list): Birds of Passage, Shoplifters, Roma and Cold War.  Missing from the list: Border and Girl.
Makeup/Hair (7 on the list): Border
Score (15 on the list): First Man
Song: (15 on the list): Revelation from Boy Erased
Visual Effects (10 on the list): First Man
Live Action Short (10 on the list): Caroline, Fauve

No TFF films were among the short listed films in the Documentary Shorts category or the Animated Shorts.

Variety has the complete rundown of all films short listed on Monday here.


The crew at Indiewire have done their annual compilation of critics' assessments for the year.  The massive undertaking included the responses of 232 critics and after the dust settled, films that played at Telluride in 2018 fared remarkably well.

Indiewire posted the top films and performances in a number if categories on Monday and here's where TFF films landed.

Best Film (of 10)

1. Roma
2. First Reformed (TFF #44)
4. The Favourite
5. Cold War
6. Shoplifters

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
4. Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
5. Paul Schrader/First Reformed (TFF #44)

Best Actress

1. Olivia Colman/The Favourite
2. Yalitza Aparicio/Roma
4. Joanna Kulig/Cold War
5. Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Actor

1. Ethan Hawke/First Reformed (TFF #44)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Rachel Weisz/The Favourite
3. Emma Stone/The Favourite

Best Supporting Actor

2. Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever forgive Me?

Best Documentary

4. Free Solo

Best Screenplay

1. The Favourite
2. First Reformed (TFF #44)
3. Roma
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma
3. Shoplifters
4. Cold War

Best Cinematography

1. Roma
2. Cold War
4. First Man
5. The Favourite

The complete article is linked here.

In a separate piece, Imdiewire runs down the top 50 films as rated by the 232 critics that they surveyed and both TFF #45 and TFF #44 were well represented:

43) Birds of Passage
38) Lean on Pete***
35) Border
30) The Other Side of the Wind
25) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
21) First Man
11) The Rider***
6) Shoplifters
5) Cold War
4) The Favourite
2) First Reformed***
1) Roma

(*** designates films from TFF #44)

Indiewire's critics' top 50 is linked here.


Sasha Stone at Awards Daily posted a passionate endorsement of Damien Chazelle's First Man on her website this week.  By and large I agree with her assessment about the film and, frankly, were I a voting member of the Academy it would be at the top of my ballot.

It seems a little unusual to me that First Man hasn't performed better at the box office and during this awards season.   In part because there is a group of people that experienced the film at Telluride who all feel much the same way-people that write about films for a living and that I have come to know at least a little bit.  We,have all expressed our belief in the film's quality and if you follow specific media accounts, you can deduce some the people I'm referencing...Sasha being among that group.

It also seems weird that a film that scored so well on my post-festival collection of ratings from fest-goers and business insiders, hasn't connect with the wider public.

I have come to think of Telluride as a terrific bellwether for were the awards season is likely to go.  I have come to the conclusion that T-ride has become an excellent microcosm of film-goers that collectively react much like the Academy will.

But it doesn't seem that way this year with this film.

Maybe this is a disconnect between the Telluride crowd and the rapidly evolving membership of the Academy as it has tried to increase its diversity over the past few years.  Maybe the First Man reaction or lack thereof is an anomaly that won't repeat at TFF #46 and the track record of the last decade or so will reassert itself.

Maybe I'm just wrong.  Wouldn't be the first time.

And it's not that First Man is going to be a total miss come Oscar nomination morning.  It'll likely be nominated for Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects. It may get in for Cinematography and Film Editing.  Claire Foy still seems to have a shot at a Supporting Actress nomination.  Even the costumes and production design could still be in the mix for nominations.

Additionally, the Broadcast Film Critics Association gave it 10 nominations last week including Best Picture and Best Direction.  Oscar predictor Kristopher Tapley of Variety/InContention posted his first set of predictions last week and First Man was in seven categories including Best Picture.

But the consensus right now is that the film isn't likely to a Best Picture or Directing nominee on Jan. 22nd and that, to me, seems wrong.


The voting doesn't actually start until Jan. 7th.  Here's the link to Sasha's piece...

Maybe give it a read...she's a much better writer than I am.  And pass it on...

That's your MTFB for this Thursday...more headed your way on Monday.  Happy Holidays all!


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Monday, December 17, 2018

Big Critics Groups and Oscar in 2018 / Cold War Dominates the EFA / Oscar Short Lists Land Today

It is a Monday!  Time for some MTFB...


I did this last year at the same time.  That is to say that I collated results about where films stand in critical eyes as we approach the end of the year.

I look at what we've been told by nominations or awards from The Golden Globes (GG), Critics Choice Awards (BFCA), National Board of Review (NBR), American Film Institute (AFI), New York Film Critics Circle (NY) and Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LA), Screen Actors Guild (SAG).

Last year the list looked like this:

10) The Disaster Artist (NBR, GG)
7) The Florida Project (NBR, BFCA, AFI)
7) The Big Sick (BFCA, AFI, SAG)
7) The Shape of Water (BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) The Post (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Dunkirk (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
2) Call Me By Your Name (NBR, LA, BFCA, GG, AFI)
2) Get Out (NBR, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
1) Lady Bird (NBR, NY, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)

So it included TFF #44 films Lady Bird, and The Shape of Water.  It also included eventual Oscar Best Picture winner, The Shape of Water. and nominees Lady Bird, Three Billboards, Dunkirk, The Post, Get Out, Call Me By Your Name and Dunkirk.  So, the top seven got in with the additions, of TFF #44 film Darkest Hour and also Phantom Thread.

With that in mind, here's what the data from the same seven groups tells us in 2018:

9) Six films tied here with two mentions each: Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, Eighth Grade, First Reformed, A Quiet Place and Vice.

7) Mary Poppins Returns (3): NBR, AFI, BFCA
7) The Favourite (3): GG, AFI, BFCA
4) If Beale Street Could Talk (4): NBR, GG, AFI, BFCA
4) Green Book (4): NBR (best picture), GG, AFI, BFCA
4) BlacKkKlansman (4): GG, AFI, SAG, BFCA
1) A Star Is Born (5): NBR, GG, AFI, SAG, BFCA
1) Roma (5): NBR, NY, LA, AFI (special citation), BFCA
1) Black Panther (5): NBR, GG, AFI, SAG, BFCA

With single mentions: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Can You Ever Forgive Me? and First Man.

Based on last year, if you're film is sitting at #7 or above, it's got a great chance to be Oscar nominated for Best Picture on the morning of Jan. 22nd.


The European Film Awards were passed out Saturday and TFF #45 film Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War dominated the field picking up five wins including Best European Film.  The film's female lead, Joanna Kulig, was named Best Actress and Pawlikowski won for Best Direction and Screenwriting.  The film also won for Best Editing. 

In other TFF #45 EFA news, Matteo Garrone's Dogman did well too with wins for Best Actor (Marcello Fonte), Costume Design and Hair/Makeup.

Lukas Dhont's Girl was named winner for European Discovery and Ali Abassi's Border won the award for visual effects.

Linked here is the press release from the EFA.


Steve Pond of The Wrap reports that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announces all of their short lists for a variety of categories today.

That's a departure from the past when the categories that include the "short list" process have traditionally parcelled those announcements over a period of weeks but that won't be the process this year.

Pond tells us that will mean nine different categories will be trimmed to definitive lists by this afternoon. 

Here are those categories and the number that they will be trimmed to:

Foreign Language Film (9)
Documentary Feature (15)
Original Song (15)
Original Score (15)
Makeup/Hair (7...probably)
Visual Effects (10)
Documentary Short (10)
Animated Short (10)
Live Action Short (10)

Pond also takes a look at what he thinks are the most likely inclusions and exclusions in his article which you can find linked here.

I'll have a look at how the short lists all shake out vis-a-vis Telluride in Thursday's regularly scheduled post.

That's the Monday MTFB.  I'll be back with more on Thursday.


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