Thursday, January 18, 2018

The FAC Predicts Foreign, Animated, Doc and Shorts / The Film Stage Looks Forward to 2018 / Hope for The Other Side the Wind

Good Thursday film friends and a big shout out to any and all of you Sundancers as that film fest launches today.  What will be this year's Get Out, Mudbound or Call Me By Your Name?


THE FAC PREDICTS FOREIGN, ANIMATED, DOC AND SHORTS

There are just a few days left before the live reveal of all 24 categories of nominations for the Oscars for this year.  That is set to happen early on Tuesday morning, Jan. 23rd.  In my last post I updated a bunch of major categories and included predictions on a number of feature "under the line" categories.  Today, I complete the circle with predictions for the remaining six categories not covered on Monday.

As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM



1) Foxtrot
2) Loveless
3) A Fantastic Woman
4) The Square
5) In the Fade

Others: The Insult, The Wound and Felicite.

Comment: This could be the most Telluride-centric category of the bunch.  If The Insult could supplant The Square or In the Fade, TFF #44 films would be 4 of the 5 nominees.  Realistically, the only other category that might approach that is Best Supporting Actress and that assumes that Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water-possible) Hong Chau (Downsizing-possible) or Kristen Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour-unlikely) join all but certain nominees Allison Janney (I, Tonya) and Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird).

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE



1) Coco
2) The Breadwinner
3) Loving Vincent
4) Lego Batman
5) The Boss Baby

Others: Despicable Me 3, Cars 3, Ferdinand


BEST DOCUMENTARY



1) Jane
2) Faces Places
3) Strong Island
4) Icarus
5) Last Men in Aleppo

Others: City of Ghosts, Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Long Strange Trip


LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Dekalb Elementary
2) Facing Mecca
3) Watu Wote
4) Witnesses
5) Lost Face

Others: My Nephew Emmett, The Silent Child, The Eleven O'Clock

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Dear Basketball
2) Lou
3) Cradle
4) In a Heartbeat
5) Negative Space

Others: Revolting Rhymes, Life Smartphone, Fox and the Whale


DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Eddie and Edith
2) Heroin(e)
3) Kayayo-The Living Shopping Baskets
4) Alone-The New York Times
5) 116 Cameras

Others: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Ten Meter Tower, Traffic Stop


Added to the predicted total from last Monday's post, if The FAC is 100% accurate (and it won't be), TFF #44 films will collectively earn 30 Oscar nominations on Tuesday.  The average for TFF #44 over the past several years is 27.

Last year, though was an all timer for TFF as TFF #43 films racked up a total of 42 nominations.


THE FILM STAGE LOOKS FORWARD TO 2018



The Film Stage published their list of 100 "Most Anticipated" films for 2018 last week and a number of titles that I believe have Telluride potential made their list.

For example:

#99-First Man
#95- Backseat (the Adam McKay Dick Cheney film starring Christian Bale)
#94- The Widow
#93- The Little Stranger
#79- Kursk
#77- At Eternity's Gate (does Julian Schnabel return to Telluride?)
#71-Mid-90's
#67- Where Is Anne Frank?
#61- The Death and Life of John F. Donovan
#52- Private Life
#50-Boy Erased
#48- Cold War
#46- The Sisters Brothers (does Audiard return to Telluride?)
#34- Sunset
#30- The Man Who Killed Don Quixote
#28- Peterloo
#27- The Women of Marwen
#26- Roma
#16- E-Book
#11- Everybody Knows (does Farhadi return to Telluride?)
#8- Widows (Steve McQueen...)
#4- Maya
#2- If Beale Street Could Talk

The complete Film Stage post is here.



HOPE FOR THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WIND

For months now, we have been anticipating the arrival of the restoration of Orson Welles unfinished final film The Other Side of the Wind.  We knew that the work to put it together had been continuing. 

The anticipation may finally have a payoff.  The Film Stage reports that a version of the film was screened this week.  The Film Stage tweeted that information last night (derived from a WellesNet.com tweet:




This increases the chances that we could see the film in eight months in the San Juans.  Fingers crossed.



That's your MTFB for today.  Come back on Monday for final Oscar nomination predictions!


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Monday, January 15, 2018

The FAC Updates Oscar's Major Categories / The FAC Predicts Under the Line Categories

Welcome back from the weekend.  Hope you had a good one.


THE FAC UPDATES OSCAR'S MAJOR CATEGORIES



With less than ten days left before scar announces its nominees, here are updated predictions in each of the eight "major" categories.  If you don't think Golden Globe results don't alter the perception of the race...maybe re-think.  As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE



The last update was on Best Picture was on Dec. 18th and it looked like this:

1) Lady Bird
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) The Post
5) Dunkirk
6) The Shape of Water
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project

Others: Mudbound, Darkest Hour, The Big Sick

And today's update:

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) The Shape of Water
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) The Post
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project

Others: The Big Sick, Darkest Hour, I Tonya


BEST DIRECTION

Last post:

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Steven Spielberg/The Post
4) Jordan Peele/Get Out
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird

Others: Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound

Today's update:

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Get Out/Jordan Peele
4) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird

Others: Steven Spielberg/The Post, Sean Baker/The Florida Project, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name


BEST ACTRESS

Last update was:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post
5) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water

Others: Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes


And today's update:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
5) Meryl Streep/The Post

Others: Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Michelle Williams/All the Money in the World


BEST ACTOR



As of the last update:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
4) Daniel Day Lewis-Phantom Thread
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Others: Tom Hanks/The Post, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq., Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger


And today's update:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
4) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Others: Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post, Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



From the Jan. 1st update:

1) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
2) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
3) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
4) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
5) Hong Chau/Downsizing



Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Leslie Manville/The Phantom Thread.


And the newest FAC says:

1) Allison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
5) Hong Chau/Downsizing

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Jan. 1st line:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
4) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes


And today's updated line:

1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
3) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
4) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

From the last update:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Wonderstruck


And today's update says:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Molly's Game
3) Mudbound
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY



The last posted predictions were:

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) Lady Bird
4) The Post
5) The Shape of Water



Others: The Big Sick, Phantom Thread, I Tonya


And today's updated list is:

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) Lady Bird
4) The Shape of Water
5) The Big Sick

Others: The Post, Phantom Thread, I Tonya




THE FAC PREDICTS "UNDER THE LINE" CATEGORIES

10 "under the line categories".

As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Blade Runner 2049
2) Dunkirk
3) The Shape of Water
4) Mudbound
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, Three Billboards, Call Me By Your Name

FILM EDITING

1) Dunkirk
2) The Shape of Water
3) Get Out
4) Three Billboards
5) The Post

Others: Baby Driver, Lady Bird, I, Tonya


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Phantom Thread
2) Beauty and the Beast
3) The Shape of Water
4) Victoria and Abdul
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

COSTUMES

1) Phantom Thread
2) Beauty and the Beast
3) The Shape of Water
4) Victoria and Abdul
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman


MAKEUP AND HAIR



1) Darkest Hour
2) Wonder
3) I, Tonya

Others: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Bright, Ghosts in the Shell


ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Shape of Water
2) Dunkirk
3) The Post
4) Phantom Thread
5) Darkest Hour

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Three Billboards


ORIGINAL SONG

1) Remember Me/Coco
2) Stand Up for Something/Marshall
3) This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
4) The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
5) Mighty River/Mudbound

Others: Evermore/Beauty and the Beast, It Ain't Fair/Detroit, Prayers for This World/Cries for Syria

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) War for the Planet of the Apes
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) The Last Jedi
4) Dunkirk
5) The Shape of Water

Others: Okja, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Valerian

SOUND EDITING

1) Dunkirk
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) Baby Driver
4) The Last Jedi
5) The Shape of Water

Others: Wonder Woman. Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes


SOUND MIXING

1) Dunkirk
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) The Shape of Water 
4) The Last Jedi
5) Baby Driver

Others: Get Out, Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes


If the FAC is 100% accurate TFF #44 films would earn 25 nominations from these 18 categories.

The Shape of Water-13
Darkest Hour-6
Lady Bird-5
Downsizing-1

On Thursday, I'll take a look at the remaining 6 categories: FOreign Language, Animated Feature, Doc Feature and the three Shorts categories.


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Thursday, January 11, 2018

BAFTA Nominees and Telluride / More Precursors Today / This Year's Oscar Poster / DGA Doc Noms Include Morris, Burns and Novick

It's Thursday.  It's January.  It's 2018.


BAFTA NOMINEES AND TELLURIDE



The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their nominees for excellence in 2017 earlier this week and TFF #44 films snagged 31 of them.  Big TFF #44 players were The Shape of Water with 12, which topped all films and Darkest Hour with nine.  The robust presence of Darkest Hour combined with Gary Oldman's Golden Globe win for Best Actor-Drama has given the Joe Wright film a boost at the opportune moment right in the middle of Oscar voting.

TFF #44 films and their nominations for BAFTA awards were:

The Shape of Water (12): Best Film, Direction, Original Screenplay, Sally Hawkins/Actress, Octavia Spencer/Supporting Actress, Original Music, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects and Costumes.

Darkest Hour (9): Best Film, Best British Film, Gary Oldman/Actor, Kristen Scott Thomas/Supporting Actress. Original Music, Cinematography, Production Design, Makeup/Hair, Costumes.

Lady Bird (3): Original Screenplay, Saoirse Ronan/Actress, Laurie Metcalf/Supporting Actress.

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (3): Adapted Screenplay, Annette Bening/Actress, Jamie Bell/Actor

First They Killed My Father (1): Best Film not in the English Language

Loveless (1): Best Film not in the English Language

An Inconvenient Sequel (1):Documentary

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Film

The complete list of nominees is here from the official BAFTA website.


MORE PRECURSORS TODAY



We have a precursor double whammy today with the announcement of the five directors nominated for excellence by the Directors Guild of America (DGA).  I'm guessing: Del Toro, Nolan, Gerwig, McDonagh and Spielberg.  Peele is also a real possibility.

Meanwhile, The Critic's Choice Awards are announced tonight.  We'll find out which films and individuals the Broadcast Film Critics of America have determined are the best for 2017.  The Critics Choice Awards broadcast will be at 8:00pm ET on The CW Network.

Oscar voting comes to a conclusion tomorrow and the nominees will be revealed early in the morning on Jan. 23rd.


THIS YEAR'S OSCAR POSTER

The poster for the 90th Academy Awards has been unleashed and features host Jimmy Kimmel and a reminder of the conclusion of last year's awards:






DGA DOCUMENTARY NOMINATIONS INCLUDE MORRIS, BURNS AND NOVICK



Although the Directors Guild names their nominees for feature films today, they have already named their five nominees for direction of feature length documentaries.  Among the nominees were two films that played at Telluride last Labor Day.

Errol Morris was nominated for Wormwood and Ken Burns and Lynn Novick were nominated for The Vietnam War.  Other directors were nominated for Icarus, City of Ghosts and Abacus: Small Enough to Jail.

Anne Thompson of Indiewire has the complete rundown here.



That's your Thursday.  I'll have more on Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Monday, January 8, 2018

Golden Globes Winners / Producers and Writers Guilds Nominate /NSFC Weighs In

Hello Friends...2018 marches on.


GOLDEN GLOBE WINNERS



Here are the winners from last night's Golden Globe awards with films from TFF #44 in Bold.

Best Picture-Drama- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Screenplay-Three Billboards
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film: In the Fade
Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman


Takeaways: The HFPA really liked Three Billboards as it led all films with four wins.  The Shape of Water and Lady Bird were the other two films that had multiple wins with two each.  TFF#44 films scored 5 wins on the night.

What's it mean for Oscar?  Three Billboards is maybe a more serious player than I thought.  Otherwise, despite the fact that Oscar voting is going on right now, I'm not sure the results from last night will make a lot of difference.



PRODUCERS AND WRITERS GUILDS NOMINATE



Both the PGA (Producers Guild of America) and the WGA (Writers Guild of America) announced the nominees for their end of the year awards this week adding fuel to some Oscar fires and potentially signaling weakness for others.

The PGA announced 11 films as finalists for their award.  That's the first time that has happened as a tie in voting created an 11th position for the nominations.  PGA finalists are:

The Big Sick
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
Molly's Game
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Wonder Woman

The announcement was good news for The Big Sick, I Tonya, Molly's Game and Wonder Woman.  Not so much for Darkest Hour or Phantom Thread.

This link is to the official announcement from the PGA.

Here is analysis from Deadline and Indiewire.

Also this week the WGA announced its finalists for Best Original and Adapted Screenplay. 



The nominees for Best Original Screenplay are:

The Big Sick
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water

Adapted Screenplay nominees are:

Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound

It's worth remembering that some surefire Oscar contenders like Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were not eligible for consideration under WGA rules.

WGA analysis is here from Indiewire, Entertainment Weekly and Awards Circuit.


NATIONAL SOCIETY OF FILM CRITICS WEIGHS IN



The last big critics group to announce their choices for the Best of 2017 did so on Saturday.  The National Society of Film Critics (NFSC) named Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird the Best Film of the year in an incredible close vote as it topped Jordan Peele's Get Out by a single ballot.

Lady Bird claimed four wins in all as Gerwig was singled out as Best Director and the writer of the Best Screenplay as well and Laurie Metcalf was named Best Supporting Actress.

Other TFF #44 films also were honored:
Sally Hawkins was named Best Actress for The Shape of Water (and Maudie-TFF #43)
Graduation was named Best Foreign Film and Faces Places was named Best Non-Fiction Film.

TFF #44 films only missed on three awards from the group.

Additionally, Saoirse Ronan was runner-up for Best Actress for Lady Bird.  Michael Sthulbarg was a runner-up for Best Supporting Actor in part for The Shape of Water.  Faces Places was a runner-up for Best Foreign Language Film.

Variety has this report of the NSFC honors including runners-up in each category.


That's your MTFB for this Monday.  Check back for more on Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Sunday, January 7, 2018

SUNDAY SPECIAL: GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

SUNDAY SPECIAL: GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS




Welcome to a special additional post to MTFB.  I've put together a set of predictions today for tonight's Golden Globes ceremony from a bunch of the best people in the film awards business.  We'll see how this all pans out tonight.  TFF #44 films are Bold.

Kristopher Tapley/Variety/InContention

Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Best Actor-Drama-Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor-Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Screenplay-Three Billboards
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-First They Killed My Father
Best Original Score-Dunkirk
Best Song-Mighty River/Mudbound

Tapley's complete article is here.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily (and AD's Oscar Squad)

Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Get Out
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World
Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-First They Killed My Father
Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-Mighty River/Mudbound

Stone's complete article is here.

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Best Picture-Drama- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul
Best Actor-Drama-Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Screenplay-Three Billboards
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-First They Killed My Father
Best Original Score-Dunkirk
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman

Feinberg's complete article is here.

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-First They Killed My Father
Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-Remember Me/Coco

Thompson's complete article is here.

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Best Actor-Drama-Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World
Best Screenplay-Three Billboards
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-The Square
Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-Remember Me Coco

Anderson's complete article is here.

Steve Pond/The Wrap

Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Get Out
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor-Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-The Square
Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman

Pond's complete article is here.


Greg Ellwood/Awards Campaign/The Playlist

Best Picture-Drama-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor-Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World
Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-A Fantastic Woman
Best Original Score-Dunkirk
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman

Ellwood's complete article is here.

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Best Actor-Drama-Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor-Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-A Fantastic Woman
Best Original Score-Phantom Thread
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman

Davis' complete article is here.

Here's the consensus of these eight experts with the number predicting each winner in parentheses:

Best Picture-Drama: The Shape of Water (6), Three Billboards (2)
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy: Lady Bird (6), Get Out (2)
Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water (8)
Best Actress-Drama: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards (5), Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water (3)
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy: Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird (5), Margot Robbie/I, Tonya (2), Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul (1)
Best Actor-Drama: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour (4), Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name (3), Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread (1)
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy: James Franco/The Disaster Artist (8)
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney/I, Tonya (4), Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird (4)
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World (3), Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards (3), Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project (2)
Best Screenplay: Lady Bird (5), Three Billboards (3)
Best Animated Feature: Coco (8)
Best Foreign Language Film: First They Killed My Father (4), A Fantastic Woman (2), The Square (2)
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water (4), Dunkirk (3), Phantom Thread (1)
Best Song: This is Me/The Greatest Showman (4), Remember Me/Coco (2), Mighty River/Mudbound (2)

The experts predict Telluride 2017 films to win anywhere between 3 (Feinberg) to 8 (Stone) Globes.  It is possible for TFF #44 films to win in every category except Original Song.

I'll be tweeting (or re-tweeting) results tonight during the Globe broadcast (on Twitter @Gort2).  I'll also have a full rundown of the Globe results tomorrow morning.


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Thursday, January 4, 2018

This Week: Clarity or Confusion? / Film Editing Guild Nominees / Variety with Greta Gerwig and Saoirse Ronan of Lady Bird

Welcome back as 2018 continues...at least for one more day...


THIS WEEK: CLARITY OR CONFUSION?




This week looms large for Oscar watchers as three key Guilds are announcing their nominees for excellence in 2017.  The American Cinema of Editors named theirs yesterday (see below).  The Writers and most critically the Producers Guilds announce tomorrow and Friday respectively.

Then, of course, on Sunday we'll have the HFPA Golden Globes winners announced.  As close as most of this year's Oscar race has seemed, the week could provide some serious momentum as Oscar nomination voting begins on Friday and concludes next Friday, Jan. 12th.

But it's just as likely that the Guilds and Globes this week will split all over the place and we'll get to the Directors Guild nomination announcement next week (on Jan. 11th) and have no clearer sense than we do right now.  Actually, the way this has gone thus far, that's probably the more likely scenario.

Nevertheless, I'll have a special Sunday post this week that will be focused on Golden Globe predictions so keep an eye open for that.


FILM EDITING GUILD NOMINEES



The American Cinema Editors (ACE) named their finalists for editing film excellence yesterday.  Though the ACE nominees don't always align perfectly with Oscar nominees, they are an important precursor for the Film Editing Academy Award and, by extension, the Best Picture Oscar.  Indiewire reports that over the last 24 years 88% of Oscar editing nominees were first nominated by the A.C.E.

There is a long tradition of the eventual Best Picture winner also being named as one of the five Best Film Editing nominees.  The film doesn't have to win for editing but a nomination seems to be key. Moonlight continued that last year as Film Editing was one of its eight Oscar nominations.

The film nominations for the A.C.E. Eddie Awards are:



For Drama:

Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
The Post
The Shape of Water
Molly's Game



For Comedy:

Baby Driver
Get Out
Lady Bird
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I, Tonya


TFF #44 films getting a nod were Lady Bird and The Shape of Water.


I have linked coverage and analysis of the editing nominations here from:

Indiewire

Entertainment Weekly

The Hollywood Reporter

Deadline


VARIETY WITH GERWIG AND RONAN OF LADY BIRD

Variety's Owen Gleiberman has posted an extended profile of Lady Bird writer/director Greta Gerwig and star of the film Saoirse Ronan.  The feature was the cover of the print version of the January, 2018 edition:


Take a look at the electronic version of the story here.




That's your MTFB for Thursday, Jan. 4, 2018.  I'll have a special post on Sunday with pre-Golden Globes predictions and then be back with the regularly scheduled post on Monday with Globe winners coverage.

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Monday, January 1, 2018

The FAC Updated Predictions for Supporting and Screenplays / Telluride Time Tunnel-Re-visiting TFF #13 / RT's Top 100 Films of 2017

HAPPY NEW 2018!


Welcome to Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Awards Clearinghouse (FAC).



THE FAC UPDATED PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING AND SCREENPLAYS

Taking a look today at four categories to update them as we begin the new year.  Also a mention that the Golden Globe Awards are less than a week away.  They'll be announced on Sunday, Jan. 7th.

As always, the films/performers from TFF #44 films are indicated with Bold.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



The Supporting races were last predicted in this space on Dec. 4th.  In that post the Supporting Actress race looked like this :

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound

Others: Hong Chau/Downsizing, Leslie Manville/Phantom Thread, Melissa Leo/Novitiate


Four weeks later, here's where we stand:

1) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
2) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
3) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
4) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
5) Hong Chau/Downsizing

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Leslie Manville/The Phantom Thread.

Comment:  Blige has really seen a surge over the past couple of weeks.  The top spot is still very tight but Metcalf seems to have the edge at the moment.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR



From a month ago:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Mark Rylance/Dunkirk

Others: Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water, Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour, Ray Romano/The Big Sick


The updated predictions:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
4) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

Comment:  Nice surges for Jenkins and Harrelson.  Dafoe looks like the solid favorite to win at this point.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY



The screenplay categories are being updated for the first time since Nov. 9th...

Here's what was out front nearly two months back:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Last Flag Flying

Others: Wonderstruck, Stronger, Wonder Woman

And today's update:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Wonderstruck

Comment:  A very stable category for the last two months.  The fifth spot is a toss up.  The top four seem to be in good shape.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY



From Nov. 9th:

1) Three Billboards
2) The Shape of Water
3) Get Out
4) Lady Bird
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post. The Big Sick, I, Tonya


And the new FAC prediction says:

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) Lady Bird
4) The Post
5) The Shape of Water

Others: The Big Sick, Phantom Thread, I Tonya

Comment: Phantom Thread supplants Darkest Hour in the conversation for the last spot.


TELLURIDE TIME TUNNEL-RE-VISITING TFF #13



MTFB continues its months long review of the history of the Telluride Film Festival. 

You may recall that I started this project back on April 13, 2017.  The goal here is to provide a place on the interwebs where someone could get a relatively complete look at what played at each Telluride Film Fest (in as far as feature films are concerned) since its inception.

As I have written on a couple of occasions, the current official Telluride Film Festival website has links to the programs for fests from 2006 to last year's program.  Prior to 2006, I am unaware of any other collection of data for TFF online.  This is an attempt to provide that.

So, we pick up where we left off with a look at the films and personalities of TFF #13.  The 13th Telluride Film Festival took place  from Aug. 29-September 1, 1986.

Tributes: Alexander Mackendrick, Jiri Menzel and Isabelle Huppert.

Also of note, a retrospective of the films of Anthony Mann labeled Mann of the West that featured the one and only Jimmy Stewart in person.

SHOWS:

The Biscuit Eater
Blue Velvet
Cactus
Closely Watched Trains
The Decline of the American Empire
Devil in the Flesh
Document: Fanny and Alexander
Eat the Peach
Eraserhead
The Gay Desperado
The Interrogation
The Lacemaker
The Ladykillers
A Lonely Woman
Los Inundados
The Man form Laramie
Mother Teresa
My Little Village
No End
The River's Edge
The Sacrifice
Sacrificed Youth
Seize the Day
Smasher
The Sweet Smell of Success
Therese
Tire Die
Too Far to Go
We Are the Living
Winchester 73
The Witch
Working Girls


Guests:

Denys Arcand
Laura Dern
Crispin Glover
Agnieszka Holland
Chuck Jones
David Lynch
Kyle MacLachlan
Anne Meara
Jerry Stiller
James Stewart
Robin Williams


I'm trying to imagine a weekend where I might have seen James Stewart, Robin Williams and David Lynch around town and also have caught screenings of Blue Velvet, The River's Edge, Winchester 73 and The Sweet Smell of Success.


RT'S TOP 100 FILMS OF 2017



Rotten Tomatoes has released its list of the top 100 films rated on their site for 2017.  The list includes a number of titles from both TFF #44 as well as TFF #43.

Those from TFF #44 making the grade are:

#91-The Other Side of Hope
#68-Human Flow
#67-Battle of the Sexes
#26-Faces Places
#20-The Shape of Water
#5-Lady Bird

Jordan Peele's Get Out is rated as the top film by RT for 2017.

TFF #43 films that made the RT Top 100 are:

#97-Maudie
#81-Frantz
#64-I Called Him Morgan
#61-The B-Side:Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography
#44-Graduation
#35-Bright Lights: Starring Carrie Fisher and Debbie Reynolds

The complete RT Top 100 list is linked here.




That's your first MTFB for 2018.  There will probably be more. Thursday.


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Thursday, December 28, 2017

Tapley Taps in / Variety's Anticipation / U.S. Trailer for Foxtrot / Jenkins On The Shape of Water

Hello to all on this last Thursday in December and 2017.


TAPLEY TAPS IN



Kristopher Tapley of Variety/In Contention has been a big presence in this space over the past several years as one of the best and best known Oscar prognosticators in the business.  Since I began the practice of following Telluride films through the awards season, Tapley's take on the Oscar scene is one that I have referenced religiously for many years.  But this year, Tapley has been quiet.

Variety has him running their podcast interviews and that seems to have become his central responsibility there.  At any rate and forever reasons, Tapley hasn't had any set of published predictions yet this season...until this week.

Tapley's InContention went up on Tuesday with a full set of predictions in all 24 Oscar categories.

In terms of films from TFF #44...here's what Mr. T predicts:

The Shape of Water gets 12 nominations: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor (Richard Jenkins-yeah!), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing, Score, Production Design, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

Darkest Hour gets 5: Actor, Cinematography, Makeup. Score and Production Design

Lady Bird gets 4: Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay

And one nomination each for:
Downsizing: Supporting Actress
Loving Vincent: Animated Feature
The Insult: Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman: Foreign Language Film
Loveless: Foreign Language Film
Faces/Places: Documentary Feature
Heroin(e): Documentary Short

A total of 28 nominations for TFF #44 films  if Kris is 100% accurate which is right at the Telluride Oscar average over the past several years.

Other films Tapley names for Best Picture and their predicted total nominations are: Dunkirk-7, Call Me By Your Name-5, The Florida Project-3, Get Out-3, The Post-6 and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri-6.

Tapley's complete set of predictions is here.



VARIETY'S ANTICIPATION



Also this week, Variety's critics gazed into their collective crystal ball and published a list of 20 films they are most excited to see in 2018.  Their list gives us a chance to ponder possible TFF #45 titles.

So, here are the films from Variety's 2018 most anticipated that feel like they have some T-ride potential:

Boy Erased-directed by Joel Edgerton
Burning -director Lee Chang-dong's last film was Poetry in 2010 which played Telluride
Everybody Knows- could be the film that gets Asghar Farhadi back to TFF
First Man- director Damien Chazelle's follow up to La La Land
The Man Who Killed Don Quixote- does Terry Gilliam return to TFF?
Roma-Alfonso Cuaron has been working on this since Gravity
The Sisters Brothers-Another possible return to TFF from Jacques Audiard
Sunset-director Laszlo Nemes first feature since his stunning Son of Saul

The complete listing of 20 films with commentary from Variety is linked here.



U.S. TRAILER FOR FOXTROT



Sony Pictures Classics Foreign Language Film Oscar contender Foxtrot from director and writer Samuel Maoz has its U.S. trailer which was released this week.

You can access it here from FirstShowing.net.



JENKINS ON THE SHAPE OF WATER



And finally today a link to a new interview from Deadline's Pete Hammond with Best Supporting Actor contender Richard Jenkins from Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water.  As many of you know, Jenkins has been  a favorite of mine for Oscar consideration for this role since seeing the film.

That interview is here.


That's your last MTFB for 2017 friends.  I'll have 2018's first post (of some sort) up on Monday, Jan. 1, 2018.  Happy New Year and thanks for spending some of your 2017 reading these ramblings...


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Monday, December 25, 2017

MTFB Landmark-400,000 / The Oscar Landscape / The Critical Landscape

Good Monday to everyone and Merry Christmas to those who celebrate the holiday.


MTFB LANDMARK-400,000




Over the weekend Michael's Telluride Film Blog recorded its 400,000th view.  Hard for me to believe.

As always, thanks to the dedicated readers and fans of the Telluride Film Festival as well as the Oscar race that take a peek at this space from time to time.  Truly unbelievable to me.


THE OSCAR LANDSCAPE



Taking a look at the Gurus of Gold charts reported this week...for Best Picture the new number one is Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird

Also in play are TFF #44 films The Shape of Water at #5 and Darkest Hour at #9.

For Best Actor the only TFF #44 Actor/Film in play is Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour who remains at #1.

For Best Supporting Actor-The Shape of Water's Richard Jenkins sits at #4

and for Best Director-Guillermo Del Toro is at #1 for The Shape of Water while Lady Bird's Greta Gerwig is at #3.

Sasha Stone covers the Gurus with a post at her site linked here.




Meanwhile, Stone's own internal Awards Daily "Awards Squad" has TFF #44 films/performers listed as follows:

Best Picture: The Shape of Water at #1, Lady Bird at #4 and Darkest Hour at #9.
Best Direction: Del Toro/The Shape of Water at #2, Gerwig/Lady Bird #6
Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird #1, Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water #3, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes #7
Best Actor: Oldman/Darkest Hour #1, Christian Bale/Hostiles #10
Best Supporting Actress:Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird #2, Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water #3, Hong Chau/Downsizing #6
Best Supporting Actor: Jenkins/The Shape of Water #6, Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water #8, Tracy Letts/Lady Bird #9
Adapted Screenplay: Wonderstruck #5, First They Killed My Father #10
Original Screenplay: Lady Bird #2, The Shape of Water #4
Film Editing: The Shape of Water #2, Darkest Hour #9, Lady Bird #11
Cinematography: The Shape of Water #3, Wonderstruck #6, Darkest Hour #7

The complete rundown of the Awards Daily Oscar Squad is here.


THE CRITICAL LANDSCAPE



Last Thursday I included as a part of the post a link to Indiewire's collection from 200 critics of the best films of 2017.  That list was truncated but now Indiewire has posted the 50 Best Films according to that critical compilation.  From that list five TFF #44 films made the grade:

at #46-Battle of the Sexes
#41-Darkest Hour
#36-Hostiles
#6-The Shape of Water
#2 Lady Bird

Jordan Peele's Get Out was the top film according to the 200 critics that Indiewire surveyed.  The complete gallery of their top 50 is here.


And that'll be a wrap for the Dec. 25th edition of MTFB.


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Thursday, December 21, 2017

End of Year Critics Lists / Darkest Hour Short Listed for Makeup and Hair / Morris on Wormwood

Welcome to the Monkey House as Kurt Vonnegut said...


END OF YEAR CRITICS LISTS



Both Indiewire and Metacritic this week have posted stories with accumulated data from multiple critics.  Here's your review of where TFF #44 films ended up on those lists.

Beginning with Indiewire's poll of over 200 critics.

Best Film: #2-Lady Bird, #6-The Shape of Water (Jordan Peele's Get Out edged out Lady Bird for the top spot)
Director: #3-Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Best Actress: #1-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird, #4-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Best Actor: #5-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Supporting Actress- #1-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Screenplay- #2-Lady Bird
Documentary- #1-Faces/Places
Foreign Language Film: #2 Faces/Places
Cinematography- #4 The Shape of Water
Animated Feature- #3 Loving Vincent
Best Films of 2018 That Have Already Been Seen: #2-The Rider, #3-First Reformed, #5-Lean on Pete

The complete story from Indie wire is here.


Metacritic posted two different stories.  The first focused on collating end of the year critics groups accolades, the other collated critics year end top ten lists.

From the collation of critics awards highlighted TFF #44 films as follows:

Top Ten Films:

#2 The Shape of Water
#4 Lady Bird

Director: #1-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water, #3- Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird
Actor- #1 Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Actress- #2-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water, #3-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Supporting Actor- #3-Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
Supporting Actress- #1- Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Screenplay- #2-Lady Bird, #7- The Shape of Water
Cinematography- #3-The Shape of Water
Film Editing- #3-The Shape of Water
Foreign Language Film- #3 First They Killed My Father
Documentary- #2- Faces/Places
Animated Feature- #2- Loving Vincent

The complete rundown from Metacritic is here.

Metacritic's compilation of critical ratings of top ten lists for 2017 films came down with these TFF #44 films in the Top 20:

#2- Lady Bird
#7-The Shape of Water
#10- Faces/Places

The complete list plus the top tens from critics are here.


DARKEST HOUR SHORT LISTED




Seven films have been short listed by AMPAS for the Makeup/Hair Oscar.  That list will be whittled to three by Oscar nomination announcement morning.

TFF #44's Darkest Hour was short listed for turning Gary Oldman into the physical presence of Winston Churchill.

Indiewire has that story here.


MORRIS ON WORMWOOD



Errol Morris spoke recently with Variety about his multi-part CIA docudrama Wormwood which bowed over Labor Day weekend at Telluride.  Wormwood is now available for streaming on Netflix.

The Variety interview is accessible here.


That's all for today.  I'll have a short post on Christmas morning and be back to business as usual next Thursday.

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Monday, December 18, 2017

The FAC Updates: Picture, Director, Actress and Actor /. Critics, Globes and SAG-AFTRA Clues? / Down to Nine

Good Monday to all...


THE FAC UPDATES: PICTURE, DIRECTOR, ACTRESS AND ACTOR



Lots of movement in terms of Oscar predictions has occurred as a result of various groups announcing their end of the year film superlatives so I thought it would be a good time to update The Film Awards Clearinghouse charts for the four major categories.  As always, the films that played TFF #44 are Bold.

BEST PICTURE



My last Best Pic update was on Nov. 23rd.  Here's what I posted then:

1) Dunkirk
2) The Shape of Water
3) Three Billboards
4) Get Out
5) Darkest Hour
6) Call Me By Your Name
7) The Post
8) Lady Bird

Others: The Florida Project, Mudbound, I Tonya

Comments: Get Out, Three Billboards, The Post and Lady Bird seem to have some wind at their backs.  Darkest Hour and The Florida Project feel like they're losing some steam.


And here's the updates Best Picture chart after announcements from the NBR, AFI, New York and Los Angeles critics, Critics Choice, SAG-AFTRA and Golden Globes:



1) Lady Bird
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) The Post
5) Dunkirk
6) The Shape of Water
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project

Others: Mudbound, Darkest Hour, The Big Sick

Comments: Nothing epitomizes the mercurial and uncertain nature of this year's Oscar race than how the Best Picture race has been jumbled in the last four weeks.  Lady Bird moves from barely being in the top eight to sitting, by the thinnest of margins, at the top spot.  Three Billboards and Get Out have stayed relatively solid.  Dunkirk seems to be suffering from the entrance of The Post into the race.  The Shape of Water also seems to have lost some its mojo.


BEST DIRECTION

Also last update on Nov. 23rd:

1) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
2) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
3) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
4) Steven Spielberg/The Post
5) Jordan Peele/Get Out

Others: Joe Wright/Darkest Hour, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound

Comments: Nolan, Del Toro and McDonagh all seem solid.  After them, though, it's a mess.


And here's the new Director's chart:

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Steven Spielberg/The Post
4) Jordan Peele/Get Out
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird

Others: Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound

Comment: And this shows the continued schizoid Oscar race...The Shape of Water drops in the Best Picture race while Del Toro is at #1 on the director's chart...yeesh.  And I am puzzled that we're not seeing more Phantom Thread love for Picture or Director.


BEST ACTRESS



This was last updates on Nov. 27th:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Meryl Streep/The Post
4) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
5) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird

Others: Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel and Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul

Your new set of picks is here:



1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post
5) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water

Others: Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes

Comment:What was once regarded as a two actress race (McDormand and Hawkins) is wide open between the top five.  Also, for a race that was touted early on as having a multitude of candidates it really is down to seven women.

BEST ACTOR

Also last updated on Nov. 27th:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
3) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
4) Tom Hanks/The Post
5) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread

Others: James Franco.The Disaster Artist, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq. and Andrew Garfield/Breathe

Comment: Hanks has some serious buzz now that some people have actually seen The Post in screenings.


And the new predictions:



1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
4) Daniel Day Lewis-Phantom Thread
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Others: Tom Hanks/The Post, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq., Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger

Comment:



CRITICS, GLOBES AND SAG-AFTRA CLUES ?



As we have moved closer and closer to the end of the year a huge swell of awards and critics groups have weighed in with their thoughts about what were the best films in 2017.

I tend to focus on seven organizations: The National Board of Review (NBR), The American Film Institute (AFI), the Broadcast Film Critics Association-Critics Choice(BFCA), the New York Film Critics Circle (NY), the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LA), the Hollywood Foreign Press Association -Golden Globes (GG) and the Screen Actors Guild/American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG) to get a sense of what's going on.

Nineteen different films have been recognized by at least one of these organizations as one of the best films of the year.  Here are the top ten:

10) The Disaster Artist (NBR, GG)
7) The Florida Project (NBR, BFCA, AFI)
7) The Big Sick (BFCA, AFI, SAG)
7) The Shape of Water (BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) The Post (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Dunkirk (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
2) Call Me By Your Name (NBR, LA, BFCA, GG, AFI)
2) Get Out (NBR, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
1) Lady Bird (NBR, NY, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)

Other films mentioned at least once by any of these seven groups:  Baby Driver, Downsizing, Phantom Thread, Logan, Darkest Hour, The Greatest Showman, I Tonya, Mudbound and Wonder Woman.

What does it mean?  In terms of Oscar, I don't know what it means.  I have been saying for a month now that Lady Bird might be your Best Picture winner.  I think that it's the film that no one really hates and that a lot of people either love or, at a minimum, like.  I think on a preferential ballot, it gets a bunch of #1 votes but is also on a lot of other ballots at #2 or #3.

The concern I had at Telluride about its chances were that it didn't have enough weight or gravitas.  That it just didn't seem to be about a Oscar-y subject matter.

But...it's reception by critics, I think, may give cover to Academy voters who might have had the same reservations.  Their reasoning might be that if the critics have decided that it's weighty enough then they can too.

Additionally, in a year (and especially here at the end of the year) when the issue of how women are treated by our society has come to the fore; it feels like Lady Bird might benefit from being a film written and directed by a woman and that is centrally about women.

The other thing going for it seems to be that all of the other serious contenders seem to have at least some drag on them.

Get Out is a genre horror film, at least to some.

Some are uncomfortable with Three Billboards' treatment of racism.

Call Me By Your Name my suffer from following a year when Moonlight won.

Dunkirk seems like a long time ago and is a directors triumph but doesn't look like any acting performance is going to be recognized (maybe Rylance, but even that idea has faded) and that feels like a problem.

The Shape of Water doesn't appeal to everyone...witness its exclusion from NBR and SAG-AFTRA.

The Post might be in the strongest position to challenge for the top spot at this point.

I don't think anyone thinks that The Big Sick or The Disaster Artist are likely contenders for Best Picture.

And, for whatever reason, maybe the lateness of screenings, Phantom Thread hasn't yet many waves in terms of a Best Picture nomination.

As to The Florida Project, I thought after its reception at Cannes that IT would be the big play for A24 in the Best Picture race but Lady Bird's ascendancy seems to have moved The Florida Project into the second tier of BP contenders.

It will be interesting to see what the DGA, PGA, WGA and Globes Awards ceremony have to tell us in January.

DOWN TO NINE



The Academy of Motion Pictures has announced the short list of nine foreign language films still in contention for the Oscar in that category.  They are:

A Fantastic Woman/Chile
In the Fade/Germany
On Body and Soul/Hungary
Foxtrot/Israel
The Insult/Lebanon
Loveless/Russia
Felicite/Senegal
The Wound/South Africa
The Square/Sweden

Four of the nine played TFF #44: A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, The Insult and Loveless.

Surprises were the exclusion of Angelina Jolie's First They Killed My Father and Cannes favorite BPM.


That's your MTFB for this Monday.  I'll have more should you check back in on Thursday...from an unusual locale...

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