MTFB Oscar Update Round Two: Supporting Acting / Visitations: Rockwell, Piper and Others

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE ROUND TWO: SUPPORTING ACTING

I'm updating predictions today for Supporting Acting for the 2027 Oscars.  MTFB's last predictions in these categories on Oct. 26th.  As always TFF #53 films are in Bold.  A film's previous rank is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Anne Hathaway/The Odyessey (1)

2) Samantha Norton/The Odyessey 93)

3) Penelope Cruz/The Invite (2)

4) Penelope Cruz/La Bola Negra (5)

5) Sandra Huller/Project Hail Mary (4)

Others: Olivia Colman/Elsinore, Amanda Seyfried/You Can See Everything, Tao Okamoto/All of a Sudden.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Andrew Garfield/Artificial (1)

2) PaulGiamatti/The Debut (2)

3) Sam Rockwell/Wild Horse Nine (3)

4) John Leguizamo/The Odyessey (4)

5) Guitarricadelafuente/La Bola Negra (5)

Others: Edward Norton/The Invite, Colman Domingo/Michael, Robert Pattinson/The Odyessey.

VISITATIONS: ROCKWELL, PIPER AND OTHERS

Sam Rockwell for Wild Horse Nine from Awards Watch.

https://awardswatch.com/sam-rockwell-on-wild-horse-nine-and-the-acting-influences-who-have-inspired-his-celebrated-career-video-interview/

Billie Piper for Elsinore from The Hollywood Reporter.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-features/billie-piper-elsinore-feature-1236746765/

Guitarricadelafuente for La Bola Negra from Awards Watch.

https://awardswatch.com/interview-guitarricadelafuente-on-blending-his-musical-gifts-and-family-history-to-create-a-personal-connection-to-sebastian-for-la-bola-negra/

Director Jennifer Peedom forTenzing from Gold Derby.

https://www.goldderby.com/film/2026/tom-hiddleston-everest-tenzing-director-jennifer-peedom/

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MTFB Oscar Update: Round Two for Lead Acting / BIFA Nominees Announced / Trailers and Clips: The Liberation, Tender Loving Care and Minotaur

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: ROUND TWO FOR LEAD ACTING

I.m updating predictions today for Lead Acting for the 2027 Oscars.  MTFB's last predictions in these categories on Oct. 19th.  As always TFF #53 films are in Bold.  A film's previous rank is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/The Debut (1)

2) Sandra Huller/Rose (2)

3) Inde Navaerette/Obsession (3)

4) Olivia Wilde/The Invite (4)

5) Viginie Efira/All of a Sudden (NR)

Others: Rene Reinsve/Fjord, Marion Bailey/Tender Loving Care, Carrie Coon/The Liberation.

BEST ACTOR

1) Andrew Scott/Elsinore (1)

2) John Malkovich/Wild Horse Nine (2)

3) Matt Damon/The Odyssey (3)

4) John Turturro/The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (4)

5) Ryan Gosling/Projrct Hail Mary (5)

Others: Tom Cruise/Digger, Anthony Ippolito/I Play Rocky, Jafar Jackson/Michael.

BIFA NOMINEES ANNOUNCED-TFF #53 WELL REPPED

From the British Independent Film Association, here are the TFF #53 films nominated.

Elsinore (12): Best British Independent Film, Direction, Lead Performance (Scott), Supporting Performance (Piper) Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes. Editing, Makeup/Hair, Original Music, Production Design.

Tender Loving Care (4): Best British Independent Film, Direction, Ensemble Performance, Screenplay.

A Long Winter (4): Best Direction, Cinematography, Costumes, Sound.

Ink(4): Best Supporting Performance (Foy), Editing, Production Design, Sound.

Club Kid (1): Best Independent International Film.

La Bola Negra (1): Best Independent International Film.

Totals: Six TFF #53 films earn 26 nominations.

Here's the link to the complete list of BIFA nominees.

https://www.bifa.film/awards/2026/winners-nominations/

Comment: I think we might be sleeping on Elsinore re; Oscars.  I can imagine five nominations: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Original Score.

TRAILERS AND CLIPS

TRAILER FOR THE LIBERATION (via YouTube)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3FUDA_I-BQ

TRAILER FOR TENDER LOVING CARE (via YouTube)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CDgxJgiQY4

CLIP FROM MINOTAUR (via YouTube)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urx44hR1oLI

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Three Million / MTFB Oscar Update: Round Two for Picture and Direction / Visitations: Fielder, Oppenheim, Coon and More

 THREE MILLION

MTFB passed three million overall views since its inception last week.  My mind is well and truly boggled.  Thanks for looking in everyone!

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: ROUND TWO FOR PICTURE AND DIRECTION

I.m updating predictions today for Best Picture and Direction for the 2027 Oscars.  MTFB's last predictions in these categories on Oct. 19th.  As always TFF #53 films are in Bold.  A film's previous rank is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Odyssey (1)

2) La Bola Negra (3)

3) Wild Horse Nine (2)

4) Project Hail Mary (4)

5) You Can See Everything (10)

6) Dune: Part Three (6)

7) The Invite (5)

8) The Debut (7)

9) Artificial (NR)

10) Elsinore (NR)

Others: I Play Rocky, All of a Sudden,Club Kid.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Christopher Nolan/The Odyssey (1)

2) Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo/La Bola Negra (3)

3) Martin MacDonagh/Wild Horse Nine (2)

4) Olivia Wilde/The Invite (4)

5) Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim/You Can See Everything (NR)

Others: Denis Villenueve/Dune: Part Three, Christopher Lord and Phil Miller/Project Hail Mary, Ryusuke Hamagachi/All of a Sudden.

VISITATIONS: FIELDER, OPPENHIEM, COON AND MORE

Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim for You Can See Everything from The Hollwood Reporter.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/you-can-see-everything-nathan-fielder-lance-oppenheim-1236741967/

Carrie Coon for The Liberation from Indiewire.

https://www.indiewire.com/features/podcast/carrie-coon-podcast-interview-the-liberation-1235224738/

Barry Jenkins and Liani Greaves for Once Upon a Time in Harlem from Film Comment.

https://www.filmcomment.com/the-film-comment-podcast-liani-greaves-and-barry-jenkins-on-once-upon-a-time-in-harlem/

Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi for Everest: The Other Side from Next Best Picture.

https://nextbestpicture.com/the-next-best-picture-podcast-interview-with-everest-the-other-side-filmmakers-elizabeth-chai-vasarhelyi-jimmy-chin/

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MTFB 's Initial Take on Oscar Nomination Predictions: Screenplays and Casting / Gothtam Awards Nominations Announced

MTFB'S INITIAL TAKE ON ON OSCAR NOMINATIONS: SCREENPLAYS AND CASTING

 

MTFB finishes out its Oscar nomination predicitions for the 2027 awards with our initial predix for Best Adapted and Original Screenplays and Casting.. TFF #53 films are in Bold.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) La Bola Negra

2) The Invite

3) The Odyssey

4) Project Hail Mary

5) All of a Sudden

Others: Dune: Part Three, Ink, Sense and Sensibility.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Wild Horse Nine

2) The Debut

3) Tender Loving Care

4) Artificial

5) Club Kid

Others: I Play Rocky, Elsinore, Fjord.

CASTING

1) The Odyessy

2) Wild Horse Nine

3) La Bola Negra

4) I Play Rocky

5) Club Kid

Others: Dune: Part Three, Tender Loving Care, Being Heumann.

MTFB's overall prediction totals for TFF #53 films in the nine "above the line" categories: 25.

GOTHAM AWARD NOMINATIONS ARE ANNOUNCED

Twelve TFF #53 films earned 24 Gotham Award nominations.  Here's the breakdown via Next Best Picture:

Tender Loving Care (4): Best International Feature, Direction, Original Screenplay, Supporting Sctress (O'Flynn).

Minotaur (3): Best International Feature, Direction, Adapted Screenplay.

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (2): Best Cirection, Lead Performance (Anderson).

Club Kid (2): Best Feature, Breakthrough Director.

The Debut (2): Best Feature, Lead Performance (Moore0.

Fatherland (2): Best International Feature, Lead Performance (Huller).

You Can See Everything (2): Best Docummentary, Audience Award,

Wild Horse Nine (2): Best Lead Performance (Malkovich), Original Screenplay.

La Bola Negra (2): Breakthrough Performeance (Guitarricadelafuente), Audience Award.

Elsinore (1): Best Lead Performance (Scott).

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (1): Best Lead Performance (Turturro).

Once Upon a Time in Harlem (1): Best Documentary.

Ypu Can find the complete list at Nest Best Picture linked here.

https://nextbestpicture.com/the-2026-gotham-award-gotham-nominations/

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MTFB's Initial Set of Oscar Predictions: Supporting Acting / Gotham Awards to Honor TFF #53 Films / Visitations: Sandra Huller and Sophia Coppola

MTFB'S INITIAL SET OF OSCAR PREDICTIONS: SUPPORTING ACTING

MTFB starts out its Oscar nomnation predicitions for the 2027 awards with our initial predix for Best Supporting Actress and Actor. TFF #53 artists are in Bold.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Anne Hathaway/The Odyssey

2) Penelope Cruz/The Invite

3) Samntha Morton/The Odyssey

4) Sandra Huller/Project Hail Mary

5) Penelope Cruz/La Bola Negra

Others:  TBA/You Can See Everything, Kate O'Flynn/Tender Loving Care, Olivia Colman/Elsinore.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Andrew Garfield/Artificial

2) Paul Giammati/The Debut

3) Sam Rockwell/Wild Horse Nine

4) John Leguizamo/The Odyssey

5) Guitarricadelafuente/La Bola Negra

Others: Edward Norton/The Invite, Robert Pattinson.The Odyssey, Colman Domingo/Michael

GOTHAM AWARDS TO HONOR TFF #53 FILMS

Late ast week the Gotham Film and Media Institute announced that a number of TFF 353 films would be honored this year.  The list:

Elsinore: Gotham Legacy Tribute in honor of Ian Charleson.

La Bola Negra: Gotham Vanguard Tribute

Danny Boyle will receive the Gotham Directors tribute for Ink.

The full rundown of Gotham tributes is linked here from Next Best Picture.

https://nextbestpicture.com/the-gotham-awards-to-present-elsinore-with-the-legacy-tribute-in-honor-of-ian-charleson/

NEW CLIP FRPM FATHERLAND

From YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ik6W8-d-A14

VISITATIONS

Sandra Huller on Fatherland, Rose and More from Indiewire.

https://www.indiewire.com/features/interviews/sandra-huller-interview-fatherland-rose-project-hail-mary-1235215300/

Sophia Coppola on making Marie Antoinette.

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MTFB's Initial Oscar Nomination Predictions: Lead Acting / TFF #53 Dominates Awards at Middleburg Fest

 MTFB'S INITIAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICITIONS: LEAD ACTING

MTFB starts out its Oscar nomnation predicitions for the 2027 awards with our initial predix for Best Actress and Actor. TFF #53 artists are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/The Debut

2) Sandra Huller/Rose

3) Inde Naverrette/Obsession

4) Olivia Wilde/The Invite

5) Renee Reinsve/Fjord

Others: Virginia Efira/All of a Sudden, Carrie Coon/The Liberation, Marion Bailey/Tender Loving Care.

BEST ACTOR

1) Andrew Scott/Elsinore

2) John Malkovich/Wild Horse Nine

3) Matt Damon/The Odyssey

4) John Turturro/The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

5) Ryan Gosling/Project Hail MarBest y

Others:Tom Cruise/Digger, Pedro Pascal/Behemoth!, Anthony Ippolito/I Play Rocky.

TFF #53 DOMINATES AWARDS AT MIDDLEBURG FEST

The Middleburg Film Fest ran Oct. 15-18th.  at its comclusion the fest announced winners of its annual Audience Awards.  

For Best Narrative, TFF #53 films took the top three spots;  

2nd Runnerup: Wild Horse Nine

1st Runnerup: Elsinore

Winner: The Debut

Best International Film; La Bola Negra

Best Documentary: 14th

The awards were reported by The Contending's Joey Moser and and his entire article can be found here.

https://thecontending.com/middleburg-awards/

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MTFB First Oscar Nomination Predictions: Picture and Direction / TFF #53 and the Mill Valley Fest Awards / Critics Choice Documentary Nominees / Trailer for A Long Winter

MTFB FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS: PICTURE AND DIRECTION

MTFB starts out its Oscar nomnation predicitions for the 2027 awards with our initial predix for Best Picture and Best Direction.  

BEST PICTURE

1) The Odyessy

2) Wild Horse Nine

3) La Bola Negra

4) Project Hail Mary

5) The Invite

6) Dune: Part Three

7) The Debut

8) Fjord

9) I Play Rocky

10) You Can See Everything

Others: Club Kid, All of a Sudden, Elsinore.

DIRECTION

1) Christopher Nolan/The Odyessy

2) Martin McDonagh/Wild Horse Nine

3) Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo/La Bola Negra

4) Olivia Wilde/The Invite

5) Denis Villemeuve/Dune: Part Three

Others: Phil Lord, Christopher Miller/Project Hail Mary, Ryusuke Hamaguchi/All of a Sudden, Christian Mungiu/Fjord.

I'll have the first MTFB predictions for Lead Acting up for Thursday's post.

TFF #53 FILMS AND THE MILL VALLEY FEST AWARDS

TFF #53 films were wellrepresented at the end of the Mill Valley Film Festival with Tenzing and Elsinore taking top honors among awards voted on by MVFF audiences.  Here's the rundown:

Overall Audience Award: Tenzing

Audience Award: Narrative Feature: Elsinore

Acting Awards went to Andrew Scott for Elsinore and Lea Seydoux for Gentle Monster.

Mind the Gap Award for Direction: Marie Kreutzer/Gentle Monster.

You can see the entire list of MVFF winners via Awards Watch linked here.

https://awardswatch.com/tenzing-elsinore-win-49th-mill-valley-film-festival-audience-awards/

CRITICS CHOICE DOCUMENTARY AWARDS NOMINEES INCLUDE LOTS OF TFF #53 FILMS

The Critics Chioce Awards announced nominees for the best of 2026.  Several TFF #53 made the cut as well as three docs from TFF #52.  Here are the Telluride docs earning nominations:

You Can See Everything (5): Best Documentary Feature, Direction, Cinematography, Editing and Score.

Once Upon a Time in Harlem (5): Best Documentary Feature, Best Forst Documentary Feature, Best Historical Doc, Best Archival Doc.

Everest: The Other Side (4): Best Documentary Feature, Best Sports Doc, Cinematography and Editing.

Rehearsals for a Revolution (3): Best Documentary Feature,  Best Archival Doc, Best Narration.

Making Marie Antoinette (1): Best Archival Doc.

Avedon (1): best Bioraphical Doc.

And fro TFF #52:

Man on the Run (2): Best Music Doc, Best Archival Doc.

Everywhere Man (1): Best Music Doc.

Ask E, Jean (1) Best Political Doc.

Ava Dubernay's 14th, which did not play at Telluride, led all nominees with six.

The complete list of nominees is here from The Critics Choice Association

https://www.criticschoice.com/nominations-unveiled-for-the-11th-annual-critics-choice-documentary-awards/

TRAILER FOR ANDREW HAIGH'S A LONG WINTER

From YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpIwPydkWac&t=6s

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The Digging Process / Oscar Experts with Early Predictions-Mark Johnson-The Contending / TFF #53 Films Honored at Hampton Fest

 THE DIGGING PROCESS

Nope...this isn't a segment musing about Inarritu's Digger.

Periodically I sit down and go through my "Future Telluride" folder.  Yes, it's true.  I see something that looks interesting regarding Telluride, I stuff it in there for future reference.  Is it valuable?  I think so.  As an example...here are some of the films that I had tucked away a year to two years befor they bowed at Teluride:

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Ink

A Long Winter

Fatherland

Bucking Fastard

The Debut

Mastermind

Jay Kelly

Hamnet

As a tease, I have nearly two dozen titles sitting in the folder that feel like they could be TFF #64 or #55 choices...but I'm keeping those quiet...for now.

OSCAR EXPERTS WITH EARLY PREDICTIONS-MARK JOHNSON-THE CONTENDING

Not quite as comprehensive as some of the "experts" I have already shared.  All the folks, including Mark, the play the Oscar prediciton game have choices up for the "above-the-line" categories.

So, among those cateories, this is what mark is currently prediciting from films that played TFF #53:

Wild Horse Nine (6): Best Picture, Dircetion, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Casting.

La Bola Negra (5): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Guitarricadelafuente), Adapted Screenplay, Casting.

The Debut (4): Best Picrure, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Original Screenplay.

Elsinore (2): Best Picture, Actor (Scott).

Rose (1): Best Actress (Huller).

Club Kid (1): Original Screenplay.

Tender Loving Care (1): Original Screenplay.

Among these nine categories seven TFF #53 films are predicyed to pick 20 nominations.

Mark's complete set of predicitons is linked here.

https://thecontending.com/oscar-predictions/mark-johnson/

TFF #53 FILMS HONORED AT HAMPTON FEST

TFF #53 films were well rewarded by the just concluded Hampton International Film festival.

La Bola Negra was named Best Narrative feature this week,  Elsinore was named Best narrative Feature Audience Award winner.  Bugundy was named the audience winner for Best Documentary.

Here's a link to the awards winners from Gold Derby.

https://www.goldderby.com/film/2026/hamptons-international-film-festival-2026-winners/

The fest ran from Oct. 2-12.

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Early Predictions from Oscar Experts-Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter / New U.K. Trailer for Elsinore / Vsitations: Gentle Monster and Making Marie Antoinette

EARLY PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS-SCOTT FEINBERG OF THE HOLLYWOOD REPORTER

MTFB continues the transition of this spece fromTelluride lineup specualtion to Oscar speculation.  I've been culling Oscar picks from a variety of sources to give readers a taste of where the opening weeks of Oscar season commences.  Today we look at the predicitions from Scott Feinberg from The Hollywood Reporter. Here are the TFF #53 films Feinberg is predicited for nominations:

La Bola Negra (14): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Supporting Actress (Cruz), Adapted Screenplay, Song, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Makeup/Hair, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects.

Wild Horse Nine (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Supporting Actress (di Giorlamo), Original Screenplay, Score, Casting, Cinematography, Edting.

The Debut (3): Best Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Song.

Club Kid (3): Best Picture, Original Screenplay, Casting.

Fjord (3): Best Picture, International Feature, Original Screenplay.

Elsinore (2): Best Picture, Actor (Scott).

Rose (2): Best  Inetrnational feature, Actress (Huller).

Fatherland (2): Best Cinematography, Production Design.

Tender Loving Care (2): Best Original Screenplay, Casting.

You Can See Everything (1): Best Picture.

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (1): Best Actor (Turturro).

The Liberation (1): Best Actress (Coon).

Minotaur (1): Best International Feature.

Ink (1): Best Adapted Screenplay.

Once Upon a Time in Harlem (1): Best Documentary.

My Undesireable Friends-Part Two (1): Best Documentary.

Feinberg has 16 TFF #53 films earning 48 nominations.

The complete list of Feinberg's predictions is linked here.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/feinberg-forecast-post-venice-telluride-tiff-starts/best-documentary-feature-126/

NEW U.K.TRAILER FOR ELSINORE

via YouTube:

VISITATIONS

Lea Seydoux and Marie Kreutzer for Gentle Monster from Awards Watch.

https://awardswatch.com/interview-marie-kreutzer-and-lea-seydoux-on-navigating-the-complex-story-of-gentle-monster/

The Playlist looks at the Making of Marie Antoinette.

https://theplaylist.net/making-marie-antoinette-trailer-sofia-coppola-eleanor-coppola-20261008/

 

Early Predicitons from Oscar Experts-Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture / Fatherland Trailer

EARLY PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS-MATT NEGLIA OF NEXT BEST PICTURE

MTFB continues the transition of this spece fromTelluride lineup specualtion to Oscar speculation.  I've been culling Oscar picks from a variety of sources to give readers a taste of where the opening weeks of Oscar season commences.  Today we look at the latest predicitions from Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture.  Here are the TFF #53 films Neglia is predicited for nominations:

La Bola Negra (12): Best Picture, Internationl Feature, Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Production Design, Score, Song and Sound.

The Debut (5): Best Picture, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giaigatti), Original Screenplay, Song.

Wild Horse Nine (5): Best Picture, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actoe (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Casting.

Fjord (2): Best International Feature, Original Screenplay.

Rose (2): Best Actress (Huller), Maekeup and Hair.

Tender Loving Care (1): Oeirinal Screeplay.

Neglia has 12 TFF #53 nominated with a combined total of 33 nominations.

You Can See Everything (1): Best Documentary.

Once Upon a Time in Harlem (1): Best Documentary.

Rearsal for a Revolution (1): Best Documentary.

Minotaur (1): Best International Feature.

Fatherland (1): Cinematography.

Neglia's complete predictions are linked here.

https://predictions.nextbestpicture.com/oscars?nu=655756da85df4c0efaa10bd2

FATHERLAND TRAILER

From YouTube:

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Oscar Experts Early Predictions: Awards Watch

 OSCAR EXPERTS EARLY PREDICITONS: AWARDS WATCH

MTFB continues to look at the opening set of Oscar predictions from various Oscarologists.  Today's look is from Erik Anderson's Awards Watch.  Here's what he has to say about TFF #53 films and Oscar nominations:

La Bola Negra (15): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Supporting Actor (Guitarricadelafuente), Supporting Actress (Cruz), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Editing, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design, Score, Song (x2) and Sound.

Wild Horse Nine (8): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Casting, Editing, Score.

Fjord (7): Best Picture, Direction, International Feature, Actor (Stan), Actress (Reinsve), Original Screenplay, Casing.

The Debut (5): Best Picture, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Original Screenplay, Song.

Elsinore (4): Best Picture, Actor (Scott), Supporting Actress (Colman), Editing.

Fatherland (2): Best International Feature, Cinematography.

Rose (1): Best Actress (Huller).

Club Kid (1): Best Original Screenplay.

Tender Loving Care (1): Best Original Screenplay.

You Can See Everything (1): Best Editing.

Once Upon a Time in Harlem (1): Best Documentary.

Rehearsals for a Revolution (1): Best Documentary.

Minotaur (1): Best International Feature.

That's 13 TFF #53 films with a predicted total of 48 nominations.

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Oscar Experts Early Predictions: Awards Radar / Elsinore Trailer / Rose Trailer

OSCAR EXPERTS EARLY PREDICTIONS: AWARDS RADAR

MTFB continues to look at the opening set of Oscar predictions from various Oscarologists.  Today's look is from Joey Magidson's Awards Radar.

La Bola Negra (10): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Sound and Song. 

Wild Horse Nine (9): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Editing, Score.

The Debut (5): Best Picture, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Original Screenplay, Song.

Fjord (4): Best Picture, International Feature, Actor (Stan), Actress (Reinsve).

Club Kid (2): Best Picture, Original Screenplay.

Rose (2): Best International Feature, Actress (Huller).

You Can See Everything (2): Best Picture, Best Documentary.

Tender Loving Care (2): Best Supporting Actress (O'Flynn), Original Screenplay.

Elsinore (1): Best Actor (Scott).

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (1): Best Actor (Turturro).

Liberation (1): Best Actress (Coon).

Fatherland (1): Best International Feature.

Awards Radar has 12 TFF #53 films earning a total of 39 nominations.

ELSINORE TRAILER

Released on Sept. 9th from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzopCeFAWF0&t=2s

ROSE TRAILER

Also released on Sept. 29th from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrmkNoxS6t4

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Turning the Page / Oscar Experts Early Picks: Variety / New Teaser for The Only Living Pickpocket in New York / New Poster for A Long Winter / Visitations: Oppenheim on You Can See Everything

TURNING THE PAGE

We've made the run of post-festival ratings with the reportage of results from my annual poll of the People, the Professionals and then the Composite of both together.  It looks like several films that screened at TFF #53 have the potential for Oscar success.  So, as has become the custom here at MTFB, we turn the page to what happens now in awards season to the films that made up the TFF #53 lineup.

GOLD DERBY'S EARLY LINE

Here's where Gold Derby experts have the Best Picture are at as an opening salvo on Oscar Season.

For quick reference here the ten movies that GD experts place as getting a Best Picture nomination (TFF #53 films are in Bold):

1) The Odyssey

2) Wild Horse Nine

3) Project Hail Mary

4) La Bola Negra

5) The Debut

6) The Invite

7) Dune: Part Three

8) Fjord

9) Digger

10) I Play Rocky

Three other TFF #53 films are in the Gold Derby Top 20 for Best Picture:

12) Elsinore

15) Club Kid

19)  Fatherland

OSCAR EXPERTS EARLY PICKS: VARIETY

I'm going to run through about half-a-dozen or so Oscar experts and their early predictions focusing on what they're saying vis-a-vis TFF #53 films.  We start with Clayton Davis of Variety.  Here's every TFF #53 film he predicts as nominees for the 21 feature categories:

Leading the way from the Davis predictions is La Bola Negra with 11 predicted nominations:

La Bola Negra (11): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Supporting Actress (Cruz), Adapted Screenplay, Production Design. Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Sound, Score.

Wild Horse Nine (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Editing.

The Debut (5): Best Picture, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Original Screenplay, Song.

Tender Loving Care (3): Best Actress (Bailey), Supporting Actress (O'Flynn), Original Screenplay.

Elsinore (2): Best Actor (Scott), Casting

You Can See Everything (1): Best Picture.

The Only Living Pickpocker in New York (1): Best Actor (Tutturro).

Fatherland (1): Best Actress (Huller),

Club Kid (1): Best Original Screenplay.

Everest: The Other Side (1): Best Documentary.

Fjord (1): Best International Feature.

Minotaur (1) Best International Feature.

A total of 12 TFF #53 films would earn 34 Oscar nominations per the predictions from Davis.

You'll find all of Clayton's early predix here.

https://variety.com/lists/2027-oscars-predictions/best-picture-11/

NEW TEASER FOR THE ONLY LIVING PICKPOCKET IN NEW YORK

From YouTube:

NEW POSTER FOR A LONG WINTER

VISITATIONS

Lance Oppenheim on You Can See Everything...and Other Projects.

https://theplaylist.net/lance-oppenheim-primetime-robert-pattinson-you-can-see-everything-nathan-fielder-interview-20260925/?

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The Composite Telluride for 2026 / Trailers for Wild Horse Nine and You Can See Everything

THE COMPOSITE TELLURIDE FOR 2026 

We cap off the run of posts that highlight the way people rated the films at Telluride today with what I call The Composite Telluride in which I add up a film's ratings from both The People and the Pros.  

This year nine films had enough responses from both groups to make this list.  There are seven films that made one list but didn't make The Composite because they failed to get enough people to see them from one group or the other.  Those were You Can See Everything which didn't make the People's list and Rose, Tenzing, Liberation, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Fatherland and Alpha Gang which weren't seen by enough Pros.

So, here's the Composite.  Each title is listed with it's composite rating (on a scale of 10) and its positions on the Pro list then the Peoples list.

1) Wild Horse Nine 9.05 [2-2]

2) La Bola Negra 8.64 [6-1]

3) Club Kid 8.57 [4-4]

4) The Debut 8.29 [5-6]

5) Fjord 8.23 [3-8]

6) Elsinore 8.16 [8-3]

7) Tender Loving Care 7.22 [7-12]

8) Ink 7.16 [9-11]

9) A Long Winter 5.99 [10-14]

Another note to pass along are the films that were seen most frequently...indicating the initial interest, or lack thereof, for a particular film.

These were the hottest films using that metric (according to the People's Poll):

1) The Debut with 83.7% of respondents having seen it.

2) Wild Horse Nine 84.1%

3) Elsinore 81.0%

4) Ink 77.8%

5) La Bola Negra (Tie) 61.9%

5) Club Kid (Tie) 61.9%

And for some historical perspective:

You Can See Everything will move to the top of the list for ratings by The Professionals.  Its 4.83 rating average will top Moonlight by .01 of a point.  Moonlight had a 4.82.

Wild Horse Nine will become the #10 all-time rated by the Professionals with its 4.62 jumping ahead of La La Land.

La Bola Negra becomes the #8 all time highest rated film for The People's Poll with its 4.56.

Wild Horse Nine also becomes the #9 rated film on the all time Composite list with its 9.05.

La Bola Negra becomes the #25 rated film on the all time Composite list with its 8.64.

TRAILERS FOR WILD HORSE NINE AND YOU CAN SEE EVERYTHNG

WILD HORSE NINE from YouTube:

And a new poster as well:

 

YOU CAN SEE EVERYTHING from You Tube:

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The People's Telluride-2026 / La Bola Negra Captures Toronto's People's Choice Award / Once Upon a Time in Harlem Honored

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE-2026

Here's my compilation of film ratings from TFF attendees for TFF #53.  Respondents were asked to rate each film they saw on a 1-5 scale with 1 being not-so-good and 5 being "way good".  Over 60 attendees responded to the poll.  The traditional requirement for inclusion is that a film had to have been seen by a third of the respondents.  15 films met that criteria.  Here they are in order of their average rating:

1) La Bola Negra 4.56

2) Wild Horse Nine 4.43

3) Elsinore 4.42

4) Rose 4.39

5) Club Kid 4.34

6) The Debut 4.17

7) Tenzing 3.98

8) Fjord 3.93

9) Liberation 3.65

10) The Only Living Pickpocket in New York 3.54

11) Ink 3.49

12) Tender Loving Care 3.40

13) Fatherland 3.28

14) A Long Winter 2.99

15) Alpha Gang 2.72

A point for consideration.  Despite the overwhelming critical reception from the Professionals, the "super-secret" TBA of You Can See Everything didn't have enough reported ratings from the People to qualify for inclusion here.  There were a mere 10 respondents that included the film.  It is, however, worth mentioning that all 10 ratings were a 5.  

Altogether, in the 14 years I have been polling at Telluride, I've not seen the kind of overwhelmingly positive reception for a film as what occurred here.

Coming on Thursday...The Composite Telluride.

YOU CAN SEE EVERYTHING TRAILER

You Can See Everything is set to be released, according to distributor A24, sometime on October 16th.,

Here is a teaser for the film from YouTube:

LA BOLA NEGRA CAPTURES TORONTO'S PEOPLE'S CHOICE AWARD

Telluride films do pretty, pretty good in Toronto as La Bola Negra wins The People's Choice Award and Elsinore wins TIFF's Best International Film People's Choice. 

I Play Rocky was the First Runner-Up for the People's Choice Feature award and Being Heumann was Second Runner-up.

ONCE UPON A TIME IN HARLEM HONORED 

The documentary Once Upon a Time in Harlem was named as this year's winner of the Lavine-Burns  Prize for Film from the Library of Congress.  Here's the poster:

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The Professional's Telluride / Minotaur Trailer / Rehearsals for a Revolution Trailer

 THE PROFESSIONALS TELLURIDE

They're back.  It's time to reveal the results of MTFB's annual poll of film industry professionals who agreed to rate the films on a 1-5 scale and allow me then to collate and average those scores.  The Pros are a mix of critics, awards experts and other industry insiders.  To make the list this year a film had to be rated by at least half of the Pros.  That threshold allowed ten films to make the list.

The Pros:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Josh Bis/Seattle Film Critics Society and TheSunBreak.com

Christina Jeurling Birro/Pop Culture Confidential

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Mark Johnson/The Awards Alchemist

Dave Karger/Turner Classic Movies

Scott Kernan/Awards Daily

Joey Magidson/Awards Radar

Ryan McQuade/Awards Watch

Will Mavity/Next Best Picture

Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture

Christopher Schiller/Freelance, former columnist ScriptMag.com

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Chris Willman/Variety

Anonymous

And the results are:

1) You Can See Everything 4.83

2) Wild Horse 9 4.62

3) Fjord 4.30

4) Club Kid 4.23

5) The Debut 4.12

6) La Bola Negra 4.08

7) Tender Loving Care 3.82

8) Elsinore 3.74

9) Ink 3.67

10) A Long Winter 3.00

I had intuitively thought that 2026 might be a banner year for the number of films with an average rating of 4.0 or above.  2026 had six of them as you can see above, but as  I looked back to all of the polls since I started doing them in 2012, I discovered that five TFFs had produced more: 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2019 with 2013 and 2015 being the top years each having eight films that reached the 4.0+ threshold.

Another note, You Can See Everything-the "super-secret" screening-was a huge hit with the professionals.  The 4.83 rating is going to put it in the Top Ten All Time Pro's Ratings.  The Huntsinger gambit here was a tremendous success.

Now, for The People's Telluride...on Monday!

MINOTAUR TRAILER

From YouTube:

REHEARSALS FOR A REVOLUTION TRAILER

From YouTube:

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