A Week Until Cannes Announces-Updates on Possible TFF Films

A WEEK UNTIL CANNES ANNOUNCES-UPDATES AND POSSIBLE TFF FILMS

With a week left until the Cannes Film Festival announces the bulk of its 2026 lineup...MTFB is laser focused on the titles that will be announced and their potential as possible choices for TFF #53.  To remind readers, the two fests commonly share about 6-8 titles every year.  Last year such films as Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, The History of Sound, Nouvelle Vague, It Was Just an Accident, The Mastermind, Urchin, A Private Life and Pillion screened in France and then appeared in Telluride for TFF #52.

Recently Ioncinema posted two separate pieces focused on what might play at Cannes.  I have combined both to consolidate this list of TFF possibilities:

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Butterfly Jam/Balagov***

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Gentle Monster/Kreutzer

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

Paper Tiger/Gray***

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

The first Ioncinema piece is linked here.

https://www.ioncinema.com/news/film-festivals/2026-cannes-film-festival-predictions-palme-dor-part-1

The second Ioncinema piece is linked here.

https://www.ioncinema.com/news/film-festivals/2026-cannes-film-festival-predictions-golden-palme-dor

Meanwhile, Jordan Ruimy has updated his Cannes predictions as of  last Monday.  His latest assessment includes what I think could be TFF titles:

1949 (Fatherland?)/Pawlikowski***/MUBI

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Butterfly Jam/Balagov

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Gentle Monster/Kruetzer

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

Paper Tiger/Gray***

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

Here's Jordan's update.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/3/30/variety-james-grays-paper-tiger-and-jane-schoenbruns-sex-and-death-at-camp-miasma-to-premiere-at-cannes

We'll know more next Thursday.

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Another Look at Early Oscar Possibles and TFF/ Cannes Speculation from Deadline

ANOTHER LOOK AT OSCAR POSSIBLES AND TFF

As we march closer to the official announcement of films playing the Cannes Film Fest (see below), MTFB continues looking at really early Oscar predictions from a number Oscarologists to they to at least begin creating a list of possibilities for TFF #53.  Today we focus on Joey Magidson's Awards Radar.  Magidson posted his list of 25 possible Best Picture nominees. From that list I culled the following as possible Telluride (*** indicates the director has had a previous TFF entry):

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Artificial/Guadagnino***/Amazon-MGM

Behemoth!/T. Gilroy/Searchlight

Being Heumann/Heder/Apple TV

Clarissa/Erisi/NEON

Digger/Inarritu***/Oct. 2nd/Warner Brothers

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

I Play Rocky/P. Farrelly/Nov. 20th/Amazon-MGM

Jack of Spades/J. Coen***

Narnia: The Magician's Nephew/Gerwig***/Nov. 26th/Netflix

Paper Tiger/Gray***

A Place in Hell/Dumont/NEON

Saturn Return/Kwedar/Netflix

The Social Reckoning/Sorkin/Oct. 9th/Sony Pictures

Tony/M. Johnson/A24

The Uprising/Greengrass/Focus Features

Wild Horse Nine/McDonagh/Nov. 6th/Searchlight

The complete list of 25 films from awards Radar is here.

https://awardsradar.com/best-picture/

CANNES SPECULATION FROM DEADLINE

A couple of weeks back Deadline.com posted a large piece about possible Cannes films.  MTFB continues to watch those lists for clues to films that could do the Cannes/Telluride Two-Step.  From that Deadline piece, here are some films that could play both places:

1949/Pawlikowski

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Bucking Fastard/Herzog***

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Gentle Monster/Kreutzer

Hombre al Agua/Bernal***

A Long Winter/Haigh

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

The full list from Deadline is linked here.
https://deadline.com/2026/03/cannes-2026-predictions-whats-international-mix-1236751075/

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Variety's Early Oscar Picture / News from Cannes / Insight for Bucking Fastard

 VARIETY'S EARLY OSCAR PICTURE

MTFB continues to take a peek at early Best Picture Oscar prognostications for TFF #53 clues.  Today it's Clayton Davis from Variety.  From his March 19th article, here are my best guesses for what among them might make it to southwest Colorado  (with director, release date and distributor, if known.  *** indicates the director has had a previous TFF entry):

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Artificial/Guadagnino***/Amazon-MGM

Being Heumann/Heder/Apple TV

Bucking Fastard/Herzog***

Clarissa/Erisi/NEON

Digger/Inarritu***/Oct. 2nd/Warner Brothers

Here Comes the Flood/Meirelles***/Netflix

A Long Winter/Haigh***/MUBI

Musk/Gibney/Bleeker Street

Narnia: The Magician's Nephew/Gerwig***/Nov. 26th/Netflix

Paper Tiger/Gray***

Primetime/Oppenheim/A24

Saturn Return/Kwedar/Netflix

Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Project/Eisenberg***/Dec. 3rd/A24

Wild Horse Nine/McDonagh/Nov. 6th/Searchlight

Check out the entire Variety set of predictions here,

https://variety.com/lists/2027-oscars-predictions/documentary-feature-9/

NEWS FROM CANNES

We're keeping close tabs on what's what regarding possible films at Cannes that may then proceed across the Atlantic to T-ride.  Jordan Ruimy updated some of his speculation on Tuesday.

First a re-cap of what we've passed on here at MTFB:

Our last list from World of Reel based on Ruimy's earlier post re: Cannes:

Predicted Cannes Competition titles that might play TFF #53:

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar

Fjord/Mungiu

Jack of Spades/Coen

Minotaur/Zvyaginstev

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi

Parallel Tales/Farhadi

Coward/Dhont

1949/Pawlikowski

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda

Butterfly Jam/Bagalov

"Possibilities"

The Long Winter/Haigh

Let Love In/Van Groeningen

Bucking Fastard/Herzog

"French Contenders"

Moulin/Nemes

Among titles that Ruimy says are now "unlikely: for Cannes but that could still make a Telluride play:

Paper Tiger/Gray

The Way of the Wind/Malick

Untitled Mike Leigh Film

Digger/Inarritu

And the Screen Daily list we put up here on Monday:

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

Paper Tiger/Gray***

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

1949 (Fatherland?)/Pawlikowski***/MUBI

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Coward/Dhont***

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

And here's what Ruimy is saying as of Tuesday's post:

Pawlikowski's 1949 was OUT but now may be back IN...it's about whether post-production can be finished.  Ruimy's tone makes me think it's likely IN.

OUT: Coward and The Way of the Wind.

Probably IN: All of a Sudden and Minotaur.  Bitter Christmas looks likely too.

James Gray's Paper Tiger which was a possible no-show now seems to be a "Maybe":

Here's the latest from World of Reel.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/3/18/cannes

INSIGHT FOR BUCKING FASTARD

Kate Mara made an appearance on Late Nigh with Seth Meyers last week and the program posted part of that conversation on their X account focused on the upcoming Bucking Fastard directed by Werner Herzog.  The clip is kind of entertaining.  The discussion begins at the 5:41 mark:

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Looking at "Too Early" Oscar Predictions for Clues / And What About Cannes?...Screen Daily

 LOOKING AT "TOO EARLY" OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR CLUES

As I have mentioned...it's time to turn our attention more fully to TFF #53.  One way to sort of begin to make a list is to look at what the Oscarologists think might be films in play for Oscar #99.  To that end, I'm looking at the first picks from Matt Neglia and Next Best Picture.  They posted on March 18th.  From their list, here are what I feel like the most likely contenders are for Telluride (with director, release date and distributor, if known.  (*** indicates the director has had a previous TFF entry):

1949 (Fatherland?)/Pawlikowski***/MUBI

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Artificial/Guadagnino***/Amazon-MGM

At the Sea/Mundruczo (played Berlin)

Being Heumann/Heder/Apple TV

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Bucking Fastard/Herzog***

Digger/Inarritu***/Oct. 2nd/Warner Brothers

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Here Comes the Flood/Meirelles***/Netflix

Jack of Spades/J. Coen***

Look Back/Kore-eda***

Narnia: The Magician's Nephew/Gerwig***/Nov. 26th/Netflix

Paper Tiger/Gray***

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Saturn Return/Kwedar/Netflix

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Project/Eisenberg***/Dec. 3rd/A24

Wild Horse Nine/McDonagh/Nov. 6th/Searchlight

Next Best Picture's complete list is here.

AND WHAT ABOUT CANNES?...SCREEN DAILY

I'm also continuing speculation about what might be announced for Cannes on April 9th and looking for signs of films that might complete the Cannes to Telluride double play.  From Screen Daily on March 13th.  The titles in the article are generally listed geographically. Films are listed with director, release date and distributor, if known.  *** indicates the director has had a previous TFF entry:

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

Paper Tiger/Gray***

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

1949 (Fatherland?)/Pawlikowski***/MUBI

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Coward/Dhont***

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Screen Daily's complete post is linked here.

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Now...Down to Business / Latest Cannes Speculation from World of Reel

NOW ...DOWN TO BUSINESS

Oscar has come a gone...finally.  Lot's of discourse now about the Oscar season being too long this year.  I kind of have to agree.

MTFB is ready to move on to the primary effort for this space...noodling possible titles for TFF #53.  That process has been lightly touched on since the turn of the calendar from 2025 to 2026 with a couple of looks at various "Most Anticipated" list of film for this year.  We have also taken a snapshot of possible Cannes titles as the venerable French fest frequently is represented at Telluride often with six to eight titles.

As we move into this phase I have found looking at the "Too Early" Oscar predictions for the year to be useful as a predicting tool.  I checked last year and that Oscar spec yielded up to seven films that eventually ended up on the TFF #52 lineup.  We'll also continue to monitor the potential Cannes field until that announcement comes on April 9th.  The fest itself will run May 12-23.

LATEST CANNES SPECULATION FROM WORLD OF REEL

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel keeps a really good eye on the buzz concerning which films will premiere as part of the Cannes Film Festival.  That's good for us as, on average, six to eight Cannes titles traditionally make their way to Telluride.

Consequently, we put our ear to the ground to his latest Cannes speculation piece posted on March 11th.

From his various sections, here are what seem to me the most probable candidates to play both Cannes and then T-ride:

Predicted Cannes Competition titles that might play TFF #53:

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar

Fjord/Mungiu

Jack of Spades/Coen

Minotaur/Zvyaginstev

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi

Parallel Tales/Farhadi

Coward/Dhont

1949/Pawlikowski

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda

Butterfly Jam/Bagalov

"Possibilities"

The Long Winter/Haigh

Let Love In/Van Groeningen

Bucking Fastards/Herzog

"French Contenders"

Moulin/Nemes

Among titles that Ruimy says are now "unlikely: for Cannes but that could still make a Telluride play:

Paper Tiger/Gray

The Way of the Wind/Malick

Untitled Mike Leigh Film

Digger/Inarritu

The complete World of Reel list is here.

I'll take a look at early Oscar predictions in Monday's post.

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Oscar 2026 and TFF

OSCAR 2026 AND TFF

Just a brief TFF check this morning post-Oscar.

TELLURIDE FILMS EARN SEVEN OSCARS

Guillermo Del Toro's was the most honored film that played Telluride last Labor Day with three wins last night: Best Production Design, Best Makeup/Hair Design and Best Costume design.

Four other TFF films won single Oscars:

Hamnet: Best Actress-Jesse Buckley

Sentimental Value (Norway): Best International Feature

All the Empty Rooms: Best Documentary Short

Two People Exchanging Saliva: Best Live Action Short (in a tie, unbelievably, with The Singers)

OVERALL

One Battle After Another was the big winner of the evening with six Oscars: Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Sean Penn) Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Casting.

Sinners was next with four wins: Best Actor (Michael B. Jordan), Original Screenplay, Score and Cinematography.

Frankenstein with three...listed above

K-pop Demon Hunters with two: Best Animated Feature, Original Song

Single wins for:

Hamnet, Sentimental Value, All the Empty Rooms and Two People Exchanging Saliva listed above.  And...

Weapons: Best Supporting Actress; Amy Madigan

Mr. Nobody Against Putin: Best Documentary Feature

Avatar: Fire and Ash: Best Visual Effects

F1: Sound

The Singers: Best Live Action Short (tie)

AND THE BLOG...

2026 might have been my best year for predicting ever. 20.5 (that's how I'm counting the Live Action tie) out of 24 categories for a 85.4% accuracy rate.  I missed Best Casting, Documentary Feature and Cinematography.  And in each of those three categories, I had the winner listed as the "Could Be".

In as far as where I would have ended up with regard to comparison with Gold Derby's Experts... Well, they counted an answer of  either Two People or The Singers as fully correct.  Using that same metric I would have tied their experts for the top spot.  They counted those as 87.5% accurate.  Had I been listed I would have tied with Mark Johnson (Awards Watch and The Contending), Tomris Laffly (Freelance), Gregory Ellwood (The Playist), Scott Feinberg (The Hollywood Reporter) and Pete Hammond (Deadline).

Here's the link to The Gold Derby results.

Again, for the third year...Gold Derby...I'm awaiting my invitation to join your crew of experts for next year.

Now...onto puzzling out the 2026 version of Telluride.  For those who are curious, for whatever reasons, I am planning to be in The Ride for the festival again this year.

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Oscar Sunday: MTFB Final Predictions

OSCAR SUNDAY: MTFB FINAL PREDICTIONS

Here we are hours away from the opening of the envelopes as Oscar season 2025-26 comes to an end tonight.  Here are the final predictions from MTFB.  Good luck in your Oscar pool!  TFF films are in Bold.

ANIMATED SHORT

Winner: The Girl who Cried Pearls

Could be: Butterfly

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: All the Empty Rooms

Could be: Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of of Brent Renaud

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Winner:  Two People Exchanging Saliva

Could Be: The Singers

VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Could be: Sinners

SOUND

Winner: F1

Could be: Sinners

MAKEUP/HAIR

Winner: Frankenstein

Could be: Sinners

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: Frankenstein

Could be: Sinners

COSTUME DESIGN

Winner: Frankenstein

Could be: Sinners

EDITING

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: F1

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: Sinners

ORIGINAL SCORE:

Winner: Sinners

Could be: One Battle After Another

ORIGNAL SONG

Winner: Golden/K-Pop Demond Hunters

Could be: I Lied to You/Sinners

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Winner: Sentimental Value

Could be: The Secret Agent

UPSET SPECIAL: The Secret Agent

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Winners; The Perfect Neighbor

Could be: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

ANIMATED FEATURE

Winner: K-Pop Demon Hunters

Could be: Zootopia 2

BEST CASTING

Winner: Sinners

Could be: One Battle After Another

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: Hamnet

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: Sinners

Could be: Sentimental Value or It Was Just and Accident

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Sean Penn/One Battle After Another

Could be: Delroy Lindo/Sinners

UPSET SPECIAL: Literally anyone nominated could win!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Amy Madigan/Weapons

Could be: Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another or Wunmi Mosaku/Sinners

UPSET SPECIAL: Any one of these three could be the winner.

BEST  ACTOR

Winner: Michael B. Jordan/Sinners

Could be: Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme

UPSET SPECIAL: Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent

BEST ACTRESS

Winner: Jesse Buckley/Hamnet

Could be: Rose Byrne/If I had Legs I'd Kick You

BEST DIRECTION:

Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another

Could Be: Ryan Coogler/Sinners

BEST PICTURE

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: Sinners

UPSET SPECIAL: Hamnet

Predicted TFF Oscar Winners: Total: 7.

Frankenstein (3): Production Design, Costume Design and  Makeup/Hair

Hamnet (1): Best Actress (Buckley)

International Feature (1): Sentimental Value

Documentary Short (1): All the Empty Rooms

Live Action Short (1): Two People Exchanging Saliva

MTFB will have a look at the results of tonight's Oscar ceremony tomorrow in the regular post.

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It's Almost Oscar Time: Eight Feature Categories That Might Be Your Oscar Pool Busters

IT'S ALMOST OSCAR TIME: EIGHT FEATURE CATEGORIES THE MIGHT BE YOUR OSCAR POOL BUSTERS

Hi there on a Pre-Oscar Thursday...

We're taking a look today at what seem to me to be the tightest eight feature categories heading into Oscar night.

EDITING

One Battle After Another seems is pretty solid shape here but a win for F1 is still possible and Sinners isn't completely out of the picture.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

This category was jumping as Oscar voting came to an end.  OBAA is my pick (currently-it could change by Sunday morning).  Sinners and Train Dreams are serious contenders.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

For months this has seemed like a slam dunk for Sentimental Value and it still seems to be the favorite but The Secret Agent is also strong.  Could Brazil upend Norway?  Yup, it could happen.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This has burgeoned into a three headed contest with Amy Madigan (Weapons), Teyana Taylor (OBAA) and, of late Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) all viable candidates.  Right now MTFB has Madigan winning...but...

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Maybe the most fluid of all 24 categories.  Stellan Skarsgard has felt like the leader almost all season but recent events (BAFTA, SAG) have pushed Sean Penn back to the top of the leaderboard.  Delroy Lindo has also experienced a burst of support.  Honestly, any of the five nominees could win the thing Sunday.  I have Penn...currently.

LEAD ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet has been riding at the top of the Oscar predictions charts for Lead Actor for months...now, maybe not so much.  Chalamet is facing some headwinds for comments he's made and. perhaps his general demeanor as he has moved through Oscar season.  Benefitting?  It would seem Sinners' Michael B. Jordan.  The race here could really come down to early Oscar voters vs. later Oscar voters. And, as a side note, if I was going to pack a category to bet a little and win a lot it would be to wager on Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).

DIRECTION

A two man race here between PTA for OBAA and Ryan Coogler for Sinners.  Currently MTFB has Anderson winning.  Will the director's trophy point to Best Picture or will there be a split?

PICTURE

One Battle After Another has been perceived as the leader here for most of the season but Sinners win for Ensemble at SAG/Aftra suggest that the biggest branch of the Academy loves the film. From what I can see, it's tight.

These eight categories plus the always unpredictable Shorts categories probably decide who has bragging rights on Monday morning.

MTFB is currently predicting TFF films winning:

Hamnet: Buckley/Actress

Sentimental Value: International Feature

Frankenstein: Makeup/Hair, Costume Design, Production Design

Shorts: All the Empty Rooms (Doc Short), Two People Exchanging Saliva (Live Action Short)

Final thoughts/predictions coming for all 24 categories on Sunday morning.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Seven Craft Categories / Predictions for Shorts Categories

Well, better a day late than never.  Here's what would have been yesterday's post if I weren't on the road.

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SEVEN CRAFT CATEGORIES

TFF films indicated in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) One Battle After Another (2)

2) Sinners (1)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

EDITING

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) F1 (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Sentimental Value (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) One Battle After Another (5)

COSTUMES

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) The Smashing Machine (3)

4) Kokuho (5)

5) The Ugly Stepsisters (4) 

SOUND

1) F1 (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) One Battle After Another (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) F1 (3)

4) The Lost Bus (4)

5) Jurassic World Rebirth (5)

PREDICITONS FOR SHORTS CATEGORIES

ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Girl Who Cried Pearls

2) Butterfly

2) Retirement Plan

4) The Three Sisters 

5) Forevergreen

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) All the Empty Rooms

2) Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

3) The Devil Is Busy

4) Children No More: Were and Gone

5) Perfectly a Strangeness

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Two People Exchanging Saliva

2) The Singers

3) A Friend of Dorothy

4) Butcher's Stain

5) Jane Austen's Period Drama

This and That: Cinematography and editing are up in the air.  If MTFB's predictions are correct TFF films win two of the three shorts categories.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Next to Last Predix for Oscar's Middle Six / Visitations: Jesse Buckley, Ethan Hawke and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: NEXT TO LAST PREDIX FOR OSCARS MIDDLE SIX

The latest predictions from MTFB for Casting, International Feature, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Original Score and Original Song.

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (4)

4) Marty Supreme (3)

5) The Secret Agent (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value (1)

2) The Secret Agent (2)

3) It Was Just an Accident (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) The Voice of Hund Rajab (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) Zootopia 2 (2)

3) Arco (4)

4) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (3)

5) Elio (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)

2) Mr. Nobody Against Putin (5)

3) The Alabama Solution (2)

4) Come See Me in the Good Light (3)

5) Cutting Through Rocks (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Bugonia (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) I Lied to You/Sinners (2)

3) Train Dreams/Train Dreams (4)

4) Dear Me/Dianne Warren: Relentless (3)

5) Sweet Dreams of Joy/Viva Vivaldi (5)

This and That: Huge movement for Mr. Nobody Against Putin.  Small adjustments in casting, Animated Feature and Original Song.

VISITATIONS

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value from Next Best Picture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fwxuEWxSpI

Jesse Buckley for Hamnet from Variety.

https://variety.com/2025/film/awards/jessie-buckley-why-hamnet-isnt-grief-porn-1236564879/

Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon from Variety.

https://variety.com/2025/film/awards/ethan-hawke-blue-moon-linklater-before-movie-1236551849/

Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value from Next Best Picture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQpi055nXVQ

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MTFB Oscar Update: Penultimate Predix for the Big Eight Categories/ PGA and The Sag/Aftra Awards / Ghost Elephants Trailer / Visitations: Trier and Herzog

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PENULTIMATE PREDIX FOR THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Frankenstein (6)

7) The Secret Agent (7)

8) Train Dreams (9)

9) Bugonia (8)

10) F1 (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (2)

3) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

4) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (3)

5) Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I's Kick You (2)

3) Renate Reinsve/Sentimental Value (3)

4) Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue (4)

5) Emma Stone/Bugonia (5)

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (4)

3) Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Leonardo DiCaprio/One Battle After Another (2)

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Wunmi Moskau/Sinners (3)

3) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (5)

3) Delroy Lindo/Sinners (4)

4) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (2)

5) Benicio Del Toro/One Battle After Another (3)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Blue Moon (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

This and That:

*Supporting Actor is all over the place now.  

*Supporting Actress is also very unsettled. 

*Best Picture and Actor are also a bit unsettled as we move into the last couple of weeks prior to Oscar night on Mar. 15.  *

Look out for Wagner Moura in the Best Actor race.

PGA AND THE "ACTOR" AWARDS

One Battle After Another won the Producers' Guild top prize on Saturday night seemingly sealing it for the Best Picture Oscar.  Meanwhile at the SAG/Aftra's Actor Awards on Sunday night:

Ensemble: Sinners

Female Lead: Jesse Buckley/Hamnet

Male Lead: Michael B. Jordan/Sinners

Female Supporting: Amy Madigan/Weapons

Male Supporting: Sean Penn/One Battle After Another

Stunt Ensemble: Mission Impossible: The Fina Reckoning

GHOST ELEPHANTS TRAILER

VISITATIONS

Director Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value from THR's Awards Chatter Podcast.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/awards-chatter-pod-joachim-trier-sentimental-value-1236517803/

Werner Herzog for Ghost Elephants from The Film Stage.

https://thefilmstage.com/werner-herzog-on-dreams-defeats-ghost-elephants-and-why-hes-not-a-workaholic/

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MTFB Oscar Predix: Second Wave for Seven Remaining Categories / Hamlet Trailer / Visitations: Jesse Buckley and Nina Gold

MTFB OSCAR PREDIX: SECOND WAVE FOR SEVEN REMAINING CATEGORIES 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

EDITING

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) F1 (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Sentimental Value (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) One Battle After Another (5)

COSTUMES

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) The Smashing Machine (3)

4) Kokuho (5)

5) The Ugly Stepsisters (4) 

SOUND

1) F1 (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) One Battle After Another (3)

4) Sirat (5)

5) Frankenstein (4)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash (1)

2) Sinners (3)

3) F1 (2)

4) The Lost Bus (4)

5) Jurassic World Rebirth (5)

This and That:  Cinematography and Editing have tightened considerably with Cinematography now the biggest toss-up.  Minor movement also in Makeup/Hair, Sound and Visual Effects.

HAMLET TRAILER

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mv2iYGYSUtY

VSITATIONS

Jesse Buckley for Hamnet from The Hollywood Reporters' Awards Chatter Podcast.

Casting Director Nina Gold for Hamnet from The Playlist.

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MTFB Oscar Predix: Round Two of the Middle Six Categories / TFF #52 and BAFTA

MTFB OSCAR PREDIX: ROUND TWO OF THE MIDDLE SIX CATEGORIES

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Hamnet (4)

5) The Secret Agent (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value (1)

2) The Secret Agent (2)

3) It Was Just an Accident (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) The Voice of Hund Rajab (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) Zootopia 2 (2)

3) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (4)

4) Arco (3)

5) Elio (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)

2) The Alabama Solution (2)

3) Come See Me in the Good Light (3)

4) Cutting Through Rocks (5)

5) Mr. Nobody Against Putin (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (4)

4) Frankenstein (3)

5) Bugonia (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) I Lied to You/Sinners (2)

3) Train Dreams/Train Dreams (4)

4) Dear Me/Dianne Warren: Relentless (3)

5) Sweet Dreams of Joy/Viva Vivaldi (5)

This and That: Small movements in Documentary, Score and Song in an other wise static set of six categories.

TFF #52 AND BAFTA

TFF #52 films nabbed six BAFTA  (British Academy of Film and Television Arts) Awards yesterday led by Guillermo Del Toro's  Frankenstein with three wins in craft categories: Productions Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.  Chloe Zhao's Hamnet made a bit of a splash with two wins: Best Actress for Jesse Buckley as well as Outstanding British Film.  Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value won the BAFTA for Best Film Not in the English Language.

Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another led all films with six wins: Best Film, Direction, Supporting Actor (Penn), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Editing. OBAA now seems virtually unbeatable for the Oscar for Best Picture.

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MTFB Oscar Update: the Big Eight's Second Round / Visitations: Hamnet and Sentimental Value

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE:THE BIG EIGHT'S SECOND ROUND

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Frankenstein (6)

7) The Secret Agent (7)

8) Bugonia (8)

9) Train Dreams (9)

10) F1 (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (2)

3) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (3)

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I's Kick You (2)

3) Renate Reinsve/Sentimental Value (3)

4) Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue (5)

5) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent (4)

4) Michael B. Jordan/Sinneres (3)

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)

3) Wunmi Moskau/Sinners (3)

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (2)

3) Benicio Del Toro/One Battle After Another (3)

4) Delroy Lindo/Sinners (4)

5) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Blue Moon (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

This and that: Two minor moves in the Acting categories mark the only changes in these categories since their last posting on Feb. 9th.  Kate Hudson and Wagner Moura both move a spot in the Best Lead categories.  Otherwise the status quo remains everywhere else.

VISITATIONS

HAMNET:

Chloe Zhao from The Wrap.

https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/awards/chloe-zhao-hamnet-interview-cover-story/

Chloe Zhao and Sam Mendes from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/global/sam-mendes-chloe-zhao-emotional-cost-directing-hamnet-1236664653/

Jesse Buckley from Deadline.

https://deadline.com/2026/02/jessie-buckley-hamnet-paul-mescal-interview-1236719350/

SENTIMENTAL VALUE:

Stellan Skarsgard from Indiewire.

https://www.indiewire.com/awards/consider-this/stellan-skarsgard-career-interview-1235179293/

Stellan Skarsgard from Awards Radar

https://awardsradar.com/2026/02/18/interview-stellan-skarsgard-discusses-his-career-and-first-oscar-nomination-for-sentimental-value/

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/awards/inga-ibsdotter-lilleaas-sentimental-value-bad-bunny-1236662568/

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas from Awards Radar.

https://awardsradar.com/2026/02/14/interview-inga-ibsdotter-lilleaas-discusses-sentimental-value-and-her-first-oscar-nomination/

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MTFB Oscar Take: First Predix for the Seven Remaining Feature Categories /Is Hamnet Still Viable for Best Picture? / Visitations: Hamnet

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: FIRST PREDIX FOR THE SEVEN REMAINING FEATURE CATEGORIES

Over the couple of posts I have loading my picks to win the Oscar 14 Feature Categories. Today we get in the first predictions for the remaining seven features categories. TFF films are in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Sinners

2) One Battle After Another

3) Train Dreams

4) Marty Supreme

5) Frankenstein

EDITING

1) One Battle After Another

2) F1

3) Sinners

4) Marty Supreme

5) Sentimental Value

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) Marty Supreme

5) One Battle After Another

COSTUMES

1) Frankenstein

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) Marty Supreme

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Frankenstein

2) Sinners

3) The Smashing Machine

4) The Ugly Stepsisters

5) Kokuho

SOUND

1) F1

2) Sinners

3) One Battle After Another

4) Sinners

5) Sirat

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash

2) F1

3) Sinners

4) Marty Supreme

5) Jurassic World Rebirth

Thoughts:

TFF films win six Oscars if these initial predictions are 100% correct.

Frankenstein (3): Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

Sentimental Value (2): Supporting Actor and International Feature

Hamnet (1): Best Actress.

Overall MTFB currently has the rest of Oscar winners predicted as follows:

One Battle After Another (5): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Editing.

Sinners (4): Casting, Original Screenplay, Score and Cinematography.

K-Pop Demon Hunters (2): Best Animated Feature, Song.

And single wins for:

Marty Supreme: Best Actor.

The Perfect Neighbor: Best Documentary.

F1: Sound.

Avatar: Fire and Ash: Visual Effects.

Tightest categories: Best Picture, Casting, Cinematography, Editing and Costumes.

IS HAMNET STILL VIABLE FOR BEST PICTURE

VISITATIONS: HAMNET

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet from The Wrap.

https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/awards/chloe-zhao-hamnet-interview-cover-story/

Chloe Zhao with James Cameron for Hamnet from Indiwire.

https://www.indiewire.com/awards/consider-this/watch-james-cameron-chloe-zhao-talk-hamnet-1235179180/

I'm an unabashed fan of Chloe Zhao's Hamnet.  While almost all of the big time Oscar pundits have the race down to a dogfight between Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler's Sinners for the top prize on March 15th (and you can see above that I'm currently predicting OBAA), I still think there might be a path wherein Hamnet emerges with Best Pic on Oscar night. 

And, it turns out, I'm not entirely alone. There are others who have dared suggest that it could happen: Cory Woodruff/For the Win/USA Today.

Come along with me...here be reasons:

1) The Preferential Ballot... Where do voters for OBAA, Sinners and Sentimental Value put Hamnet on their ballots?  A lot of #2's from those films could boost Hamnet's chances.

2) Buckley will get Hamnet on the Board...She's maybe the biggest lock for any of the 24 awards on Oscar night.  And if Hamnet/Zhao/O'Farrell also grab the Best Adapted Screenplay...lookout.

3) BAFTA is coming...I can certainly see Hamnet overperforming on their Home Field.  And as has been pointed out in other quarters, the Brits are the largest "foreign" bloc in the Academy.  Say Hamnet wins Best Film, Outstanding British Film, Actress, Supporting Actor and  Adapted Screenplay on Feb. 22nd...just four days before the final Oscar voting starts...again, lookout.

4) Hamnet's won some serious stuff...Best Film/Drama at the Golden Globes, Toronto's Audience Award and, dare I say it...Hamnet topped MTFB's People's and Pros polls.

VISITATIONS: HAMNET

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet from The Wrap.

https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/awards/chloe-zhao-hamnet-interview-cover-story/

Chloe Zhao with James Cameron for Hament from Indiewire.

https://www.indiewire.com/awards/consider-this/watch-james-cameron-chloe-zhao-talk-hamnet-1235179180/

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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