Oscar Sunday: MTFB Final Predictions

OSCAR SUNDAY: MTFB FINAL PREDICTIONS

Here we are hours away from the opening of the envelopes as Oscar season 2025-26 comes to an end tonight.  Here are the final predictions from MTFB.  Good luck in your Oscar pool!  TFF films are in Bold.

ANIMATED SHORT

Winner: The Girl who Cried Pearls

Could be: Butterfly

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: All the Empty Rooms

Could be: Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of of Brent Renaud

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Winner:  Two People Exchanging Saliva

Could Be: The Singers

VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Could be: Sinners

SOUND

Winner: F1

Could be: Sinners

MAKEUP/HAIR

Winner: Frankenstein

Could be: Sinners

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: Frankenstein

Could be: Sinners

COSTUME DESIGN

Winner: Frankenstein

Could be: Sinners

EDITING

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: F1

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: Sinners

ORIGINAL SCORE:

Winner: Sinners

Could be: One Battle After Another

ORIGNAL SONG

Winner: Golden/K-Pop Demond Hunters

Could be: I Lied to You/Sinners

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Winner: Sentimental Value

Could be: The Secret Agent

UPSET SPECIAL: The Secret Agent

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Winners; The Perfect Neighbor

Could be: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

ANIMATED FEATURE

Winner: K-Pop Demon Hunters

Could be: Zootopia 2

BEST CASTING

Winner: Sinners

Could be: One Battle After Another

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: Hamnet

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: Sinners

Could be: Sentimental Value or It Was Just and Accident

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Sean Penn/One Battle After Another

Could be: Delroy Lindo/Sinners

UPSET SPECIAL: Literally anyone nominated could win!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Amy Madigan/Weapons

Could be: Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another or Wunmi Mosaku/Sinners

UPSET SPECIAL: Any one of these three could be the winner.

BEST  ACTOR

Winner: Michael B. Jordan/Sinners

Could be: Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme

UPSET SPECIAL: Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent

BEST ACTRESS

Winner: Jesse Buckley/Hamnet

Could be: Rose Byrne/If I had Legs I'd Kick You

BEST DIRECTION:

Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another

Could Be: Ryan Coogler/Sinners

BEST PICTURE

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: Sinners

UPSET SPECIAL: Hamnet

Predicted TFF Oscar Winners: Total: 7.

Frankenstein (3): Production Design, Costume Design and  Makeup/Hair

Hamnet (1): Best Actress (Buckley)

International Feature (1): Sentimental Value

Documentary Short (1): All the Empty Rooms

Live Action Short (1): Two People Exchanging Saliva

MTFB will have a look at the results of tonight's Oscar ceremony tomorrow in the regular post.

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It's Almost Oscar Time: Eight Feature Categories That Might Be Your Oscar Pool Busters

IT'S ALMOST OSCAR TIME: EIGHT FEATURE CATEGORIES THE MIGHT BE YOUR OSCAR POOL BUSTERS

Hi there on a Pre-Oscar Thursday...

We're taking a look today at what seem to me to be the tightest eight feature categories heading into Oscar night.

EDITING

One Battle After Another seems is pretty solid shape here but a win for F1 is still possible and Sinners isn't completely out of the picture.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

This category was jumping as Oscar voting came to an end.  OBAA is my pick (currently-it could change by Sunday morning).  Sinners and Train Dreams are serious contenders.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

For months this has seemed like a slam dunk for Sentimental Value and it still seems to be the favorite but The Secret Agent is also strong.  Could Brazil upend Norway?  Yup, it could happen.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This has burgeoned into a three headed contest with Amy Madigan (Weapons), Teyana Taylor (OBAA) and, of late Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) all viable candidates.  Right now MTFB has Madigan winning...but...

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Maybe the most fluid of all 24 categories.  Stellan Skarsgard has felt like the leader almost all season but recent events (BAFTA, SAG) have pushed Sean Penn back to the top of the leaderboard.  Delroy Lindo has also experienced a burst of support.  Honestly, any of the five nominees could win the thing Sunday.  I have Penn...currently.

LEAD ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet has been riding at the top of the Oscar predictions charts for Lead Actor for months...now, maybe not so much.  Chalamet is facing some headwinds for comments he's made and. perhaps his general demeanor as he has moved through Oscar season.  Benefitting?  It would seem Sinners' Michael B. Jordan.  The race here could really come down to early Oscar voters vs. later Oscar voters. And, as a side note, if I was going to pack a category to bet a little and win a lot it would be to wager on Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).

DIRECTION

A two man race here between PTA for OBAA and Ryan Coogler for Sinners.  Currently MTFB has Anderson winning.  Will the director's trophy point to Best Picture or will there be a split?

PICTURE

One Battle After Another has been perceived as the leader here for most of the season but Sinners win for Ensemble at SAG/Aftra suggest that the biggest branch of the Academy loves the film. From what I can see, it's tight.

These eight categories plus the always unpredictable Shorts categories probably decide who has bragging rights on Monday morning.

MTFB is currently predicting TFF films winning:

Hamnet: Buckley/Actress

Sentimental Value: International Feature

Frankenstein: Makeup/Hair, Costume Design, Production Design

Shorts: All the Empty Rooms (Doc Short), Two People Exchanging Saliva (Live Action Short)

Final thoughts/predictions coming for all 24 categories on Sunday morning.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Seven Craft Categories / Predictions for Shorts Categories

Well, better a day late than never.  Here's what would have been yesterday's post if I weren't on the road.

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SEVEN CRAFT CATEGORIES

TFF films indicated in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) One Battle After Another (2)

2) Sinners (1)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

EDITING

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) F1 (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Sentimental Value (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) One Battle After Another (5)

COSTUMES

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) The Smashing Machine (3)

4) Kokuho (5)

5) The Ugly Stepsisters (4) 

SOUND

1) F1 (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) One Battle After Another (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) F1 (3)

4) The Lost Bus (4)

5) Jurassic World Rebirth (5)

PREDICITONS FOR SHORTS CATEGORIES

ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Girl Who Cried Pearls

2) Butterfly

2) Retirement Plan

4) The Three Sisters 

5) Forevergreen

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) All the Empty Rooms

2) Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

3) The Devil Is Busy

4) Children No More: Were and Gone

5) Perfectly a Strangeness

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Two People Exchanging Saliva

2) The Singers

3) A Friend of Dorothy

4) Butcher's Stain

5) Jane Austen's Period Drama

This and That: Cinematography and editing are up in the air.  If MTFB's predictions are correct TFF films win two of the three shorts categories.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Next to Last Predix for Oscar's Middle Six / Visitations: Jesse Buckley, Ethan Hawke and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: NEXT TO LAST PREDIX FOR OSCARS MIDDLE SIX

The latest predictions from MTFB for Casting, International Feature, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Original Score and Original Song.

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (4)

4) Marty Supreme (3)

5) The Secret Agent (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value (1)

2) The Secret Agent (2)

3) It Was Just an Accident (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) The Voice of Hund Rajab (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) Zootopia 2 (2)

3) Arco (4)

4) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (3)

5) Elio (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)

2) Mr. Nobody Against Putin (5)

3) The Alabama Solution (2)

4) Come See Me in the Good Light (3)

5) Cutting Through Rocks (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Bugonia (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) I Lied to You/Sinners (2)

3) Train Dreams/Train Dreams (4)

4) Dear Me/Dianne Warren: Relentless (3)

5) Sweet Dreams of Joy/Viva Vivaldi (5)

This and That: Huge movement for Mr. Nobody Against Putin.  Small adjustments in casting, Animated Feature and Original Song.

VISITATIONS

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value from Next Best Picture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fwxuEWxSpI

Jesse Buckley for Hamnet from Variety.

https://variety.com/2025/film/awards/jessie-buckley-why-hamnet-isnt-grief-porn-1236564879/

Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon from Variety.

https://variety.com/2025/film/awards/ethan-hawke-blue-moon-linklater-before-movie-1236551849/

Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value from Next Best Picture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQpi055nXVQ

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MTFB Oscar Update: Penultimate Predix for the Big Eight Categories/ PGA and The Sag/Aftra Awards / Ghost Elephants Trailer / Visitations: Trier and Herzog

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PENULTIMATE PREDIX FOR THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Frankenstein (6)

7) The Secret Agent (7)

8) Train Dreams (9)

9) Bugonia (8)

10) F1 (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (2)

3) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

4) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (3)

5) Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I's Kick You (2)

3) Renate Reinsve/Sentimental Value (3)

4) Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue (4)

5) Emma Stone/Bugonia (5)

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (4)

3) Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Leonardo DiCaprio/One Battle After Another (2)

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Wunmi Moskau/Sinners (3)

3) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (5)

3) Delroy Lindo/Sinners (4)

4) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (2)

5) Benicio Del Toro/One Battle After Another (3)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Blue Moon (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

This and That:

*Supporting Actor is all over the place now.  

*Supporting Actress is also very unsettled. 

*Best Picture and Actor are also a bit unsettled as we move into the last couple of weeks prior to Oscar night on Mar. 15.  *

Look out for Wagner Moura in the Best Actor race.

PGA AND THE "ACTOR" AWARDS

One Battle After Another won the Producers' Guild top prize on Saturday night seemingly sealing it for the Best Picture Oscar.  Meanwhile at the SAG/Aftra's Actor Awards on Sunday night:

Ensemble: Sinners

Female Lead: Jesse Buckley/Hamnet

Male Lead: Michael B. Jordan/Sinners

Female Supporting: Amy Madigan/Weapons

Male Supporting: Sean Penn/One Battle After Another

Stunt Ensemble: Mission Impossible: The Fina Reckoning

GHOST ELEPHANTS TRAILER

VISITATIONS

Director Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value from THR's Awards Chatter Podcast.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/awards-chatter-pod-joachim-trier-sentimental-value-1236517803/

Werner Herzog for Ghost Elephants from The Film Stage.

https://thefilmstage.com/werner-herzog-on-dreams-defeats-ghost-elephants-and-why-hes-not-a-workaholic/

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MTFB Oscar Predix: Second Wave for Seven Remaining Categories / Hamlet Trailer / Visitations: Jesse Buckley and Nina Gold

MTFB OSCAR PREDIX: SECOND WAVE FOR SEVEN REMAINING CATEGORIES 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

EDITING

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) F1 (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Sentimental Value (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) One Battle After Another (5)

COSTUMES

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) The Smashing Machine (3)

4) Kokuho (5)

5) The Ugly Stepsisters (4) 

SOUND

1) F1 (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) One Battle After Another (3)

4) Sirat (5)

5) Frankenstein (4)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash (1)

2) Sinners (3)

3) F1 (2)

4) The Lost Bus (4)

5) Jurassic World Rebirth (5)

This and That:  Cinematography and Editing have tightened considerably with Cinematography now the biggest toss-up.  Minor movement also in Makeup/Hair, Sound and Visual Effects.

HAMLET TRAILER

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mv2iYGYSUtY

VSITATIONS

Jesse Buckley for Hamnet from The Hollywood Reporters' Awards Chatter Podcast.

Casting Director Nina Gold for Hamnet from The Playlist.

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MTFB Oscar Predix: Round Two of the Middle Six Categories / TFF #52 and BAFTA

MTFB OSCAR PREDIX: ROUND TWO OF THE MIDDLE SIX CATEGORIES

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Hamnet (4)

5) The Secret Agent (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value (1)

2) The Secret Agent (2)

3) It Was Just an Accident (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) The Voice of Hund Rajab (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) Zootopia 2 (2)

3) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (4)

4) Arco (3)

5) Elio (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)

2) The Alabama Solution (2)

3) Come See Me in the Good Light (3)

4) Cutting Through Rocks (5)

5) Mr. Nobody Against Putin (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (4)

4) Frankenstein (3)

5) Bugonia (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) I Lied to You/Sinners (2)

3) Train Dreams/Train Dreams (4)

4) Dear Me/Dianne Warren: Relentless (3)

5) Sweet Dreams of Joy/Viva Vivaldi (5)

This and That: Small movements in Documentary, Score and Song in an other wise static set of six categories.

TFF #52 AND BAFTA

TFF #52 films nabbed six BAFTA  (British Academy of Film and Television Arts) Awards yesterday led by Guillermo Del Toro's  Frankenstein with three wins in craft categories: Productions Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.  Chloe Zhao's Hamnet made a bit of a splash with two wins: Best Actress for Jesse Buckley as well as Outstanding British Film.  Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value won the BAFTA for Best Film Not in the English Language.

Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another led all films with six wins: Best Film, Direction, Supporting Actor (Penn), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Editing. OBAA now seems virtually unbeatable for the Oscar for Best Picture.

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MTFB Oscar Update: the Big Eight's Second Round / Visitations: Hamnet and Sentimental Value

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE:THE BIG EIGHT'S SECOND ROUND

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Frankenstein (6)

7) The Secret Agent (7)

8) Bugonia (8)

9) Train Dreams (9)

10) F1 (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (2)

3) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (3)

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I's Kick You (2)

3) Renate Reinsve/Sentimental Value (3)

4) Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue (5)

5) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent (4)

4) Michael B. Jordan/Sinneres (3)

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)

3) Wunmi Moskau/Sinners (3)

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (2)

3) Benicio Del Toro/One Battle After Another (3)

4) Delroy Lindo/Sinners (4)

5) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Blue Moon (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

This and that: Two minor moves in the Acting categories mark the only changes in these categories since their last posting on Feb. 9th.  Kate Hudson and Wagner Moura both move a spot in the Best Lead categories.  Otherwise the status quo remains everywhere else.

VISITATIONS

HAMNET:

Chloe Zhao from The Wrap.

https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/awards/chloe-zhao-hamnet-interview-cover-story/

Chloe Zhao and Sam Mendes from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/global/sam-mendes-chloe-zhao-emotional-cost-directing-hamnet-1236664653/

Jesse Buckley from Deadline.

https://deadline.com/2026/02/jessie-buckley-hamnet-paul-mescal-interview-1236719350/

SENTIMENTAL VALUE:

Stellan Skarsgard from Indiewire.

https://www.indiewire.com/awards/consider-this/stellan-skarsgard-career-interview-1235179293/

Stellan Skarsgard from Awards Radar

https://awardsradar.com/2026/02/18/interview-stellan-skarsgard-discusses-his-career-and-first-oscar-nomination-for-sentimental-value/

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/awards/inga-ibsdotter-lilleaas-sentimental-value-bad-bunny-1236662568/

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas from Awards Radar.

https://awardsradar.com/2026/02/14/interview-inga-ibsdotter-lilleaas-discusses-sentimental-value-and-her-first-oscar-nomination/

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MTFB Oscar Take: First Predix for the Seven Remaining Feature Categories /Is Hamnet Still Viable for Best Picture? / Visitations: Hamnet

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: FIRST PREDIX FOR THE SEVEN REMAINING FEATURE CATEGORIES

Over the couple of posts I have loading my picks to win the Oscar 14 Feature Categories. Today we get in the first predictions for the remaining seven features categories. TFF films are in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Sinners

2) One Battle After Another

3) Train Dreams

4) Marty Supreme

5) Frankenstein

EDITING

1) One Battle After Another

2) F1

3) Sinners

4) Marty Supreme

5) Sentimental Value

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) Marty Supreme

5) One Battle After Another

COSTUMES

1) Frankenstein

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) Marty Supreme

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Frankenstein

2) Sinners

3) The Smashing Machine

4) The Ugly Stepsisters

5) Kokuho

SOUND

1) F1

2) Sinners

3) One Battle After Another

4) Sinners

5) Sirat

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash

2) F1

3) Sinners

4) Marty Supreme

5) Jurassic World Rebirth

Thoughts:

TFF films win six Oscars if these initial predictions are 100% correct.

Frankenstein (3): Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

Sentimental Value (2): Supporting Actor and International Feature

Hamnet (1): Best Actress.

Overall MTFB currently has the rest of Oscar winners predicted as follows:

One Battle After Another (5): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Editing.

Sinners (4): Casting, Original Screenplay, Score and Cinematography.

K-Pop Demon Hunters (2): Best Animated Feature, Song.

And single wins for:

Marty Supreme: Best Actor.

The Perfect Neighbor: Best Documentary.

F1: Sound.

Avatar: Fire and Ash: Visual Effects.

Tightest categories: Best Picture, Casting, Cinematography, Editing and Costumes.

IS HAMNET STILL VIABLE FOR BEST PICTURE

VISITATIONS: HAMNET

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet from The Wrap.

https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/awards/chloe-zhao-hamnet-interview-cover-story/

Chloe Zhao with James Cameron for Hamnet from Indiwire.

https://www.indiewire.com/awards/consider-this/watch-james-cameron-chloe-zhao-talk-hamnet-1235179180/

I'm an unabashed fan of Chloe Zhao's Hamnet.  While almost all of the big time Oscar pundits have the race down to a dogfight between Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler's Sinners for the top prize on March 15th (and you can see above that I'm currently predicting OBAA), I still think there might be a path wherein Hamnet emerges with Best Pic on Oscar night. 

And, it turns out, I'm not entirely alone. There are others who have dared suggest that it could happen: Cory Woodruff/For the Win/USA Today.

Come along with me...here be reasons:

1) The Preferential Ballot... Where do voters for OBAA, Sinners and Sentimental Value put Hamnet on their ballots?  A lot of #2's from those films could boost Hamnet's chances.

2) Buckley will get Hamnet on the Board...She's maybe the biggest lock for any of the 24 awards on Oscar night.  And if Hamnet/Zhao/O'Farrell also grab the Best Adapted Screenplay...lookout.

3) BAFTA is coming...I can certainly see Hamnet overperforming on their Home Field.  And as has been pointed out in other quarters, the Brits are the largest "foreign" bloc in the Academy.  Say Hamnet wins Best Film, Outstanding British Film, Actress, Supporting Actor and  Adapted Screenplay on Feb. 22nd...just four days before the final Oscar voting starts...again, lookout.

4) Hamnet's won some serious stuff...Best Film/Drama at the Golden Globes, Toronto's Audience Award and, dare I say it...Hamnet topped MTFB's People's and Pros polls.

VISITATIONS: HAMNET

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet from The Wrap.

https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/awards/chloe-zhao-hamnet-interview-cover-story/

Chloe Zhao with James Cameron for Hament from Indiewire.

https://www.indiewire.com/awards/consider-this/watch-james-cameron-chloe-zhao-talk-hamnet-1235179180/

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MTFB Oscar Take: Second Wave Winners' Predictions / Ghost Elephants Trailer / Behind the Scenes: Hamnet

 MTFB OSCAR TAKE: SECOND WAVE OF WINNERS' PREDICTIONS

I started Monday with the first pass on predicting what films will win Oscars on March 15th.  Today we extend those predictions to six more categories: Casting, International Feature, Animated feature, Documentary Feature, Original Score and Original Song.  Here's where MTFB is right now for those categories.  As always TFF films are in Bold.

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners

2) One Battle After Another

3) Marty Supreme

4) Hamnet

5) The Secret Agent

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value

2) The Secret Agent

3) It Was Just an Accident

4) Sirat

5) The Voice of Hund Rajab

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters

2) Zootopia 2

3) Arco

4) Little Amelie or the Character of rain

5) Elio

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor

2) The Alabama Solution

3) Come See Me in the Good Light

4) Mr. Nobody Against Putin

5) Cutting Through Rocks

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners

2) One Battle After Another

3) Frankenstein

4) Hamnet

5) Bugonia

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K-Pop Demon Hunters

2) I Lied to You/Sinners

3) Dear Me/Dianne Warren: Relentless

4) Train Dreams/Train Dreams

5) Sweet Dreams of Joy/Viva Vivaldi

Thoughts: It seems like the only semi-competitive category among these six is Best Casting.  All of the other five have the #1 film in great shape to pick up and Oscar on Mar. 15th.

Nest Monday, the remaining seven feature film categories.

    

GHOST ELEPHANTS TRAILER

Werner Herzog, as is often the case at Telluride, sprung a new documentary at TFF #52.  Ghost Elephants.  National Geographic dropped a trailer for the project on Tuesday.  Here it is from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoOD-2Wn7ik

BEHIND THE SCENES: HAMNET

Here's a "Behind the Scenes' Look at Hamnet from Screen rant.

https://x.com/screenrant/status/2021253073956405645

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MTFB First Predictions for Oscar Winners

MTFB FIRST PREDICTIONSFOR OSCAR WINNERS

Here is the first set of what I think is going to happen on the evening of March 15th at the 98th Oscar ceremony.  We'll start with the eight "above-the-line categories.  TFF films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) Sentimental Value

5) Marty Supreme

6) Frankenstein

7) The Secret Agent

8) Bugonia

9) Train Dreams

10) F1

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners

3) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value

5) Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I's Kick You

3) Renate Reinsve/Sentimental Value

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia

5) Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/One Battle After Another

3) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners

4) Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another

2) Amy Madigan/Weapons

3) Wunmi Moskau/Sinners

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value

2) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein

3) Benicio Del Toro/One Battle After Another

4) Delroy Lindo/Sinners

5) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners

2) Sentimental Value

3) Marty Supreme

4) It Was Just an Accident

5) Blue Moon

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Train Dreams

4) Bugonia

5) Frankenstein

This and that:

***OBAA is projected to win three of these eight categories.  It's the only film projected to win more than one. among these eight categories.

***TFF has 23 nominees among these eight categories.  Jesse Buckley looks like the only TFF win.

***As a matter of fact, Best Actress goes to a TFF film unless Kate Hudson pulls an upset.

***The only close races here is Best Picture which is a tight race between OBAA and Sinners.  The rest of the seven other categories seem set right now.

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Spying on Cannes / Visitations: Hamnet

SPYING ON CANNES 

We continue to be in the "in-between times".  That is to say between the Oscar nomination announcement and the actual Oscars...also the announcement of the lineup for the Cannes Film Festival.  So one of the things I like to do here at MTFB is try to keep an eye on the speculation about what will play at Cannes.  As frequent readers know, the overlap between films that screen in May in France and then Labor Day at Telluride is usually pronounced.

So, today we take our annual first look at the Cannes projection list from Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel.  Form that list of films, here are what seem to me the most likely TFF #53 players:

Jack of Spades/J. Coen

Paper Tiger/Gray

The Way of the Wind/Malick

Mintaul/Zvyagnistev

Parallel Tales/Farhadi

Coward/Dhont

1949/Pawlikowski

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda

Butterfly Jam/Balagov

The Basics of Philosophy/Schrader

Untitled Mike Leigh/Leigh

On Land and Sea/Palmason

The Long Winter/Haigh

Bucking Fastard/Herzog

At the Sea/Mundruczo

  

And among possible French films at Cannes:

If Love Should Die/Hansen-Love

Moulin/Nemes

Ruimy's complete list is linked here.

VISITATIONS: HAMNET

Zhao, Spielberg and Mendes on Hamnet.

Behind the Scenes of Hamnet from Collider.

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The Playlist 150 / Visitations: The Secret Agent

 THE PLAYLIST 150

I'm continuing our gaze ahead to TFF #53 with a look today at The Playlist's 150 most anticipated films. I'm scouring that list for looking for titles that might be prime candidates for inclusion at TFF.  I have them listed below with their "position on The Playlist list in parentheses.  Director's last name is also included.

So away we go...

135) The Last Disturbance of Madeline Hyne (Branagh)

81) The Unknown (Harari)

72) The basics of Philosophy (Schrader)

60) Look Back and/or Sheep in the Box (Kore-eda)

46) Parallel tales (Farhadi)

45) The Way of the Wind (Malick)

44) A Long Winter (Haigh)

28) Bucking Fastard (Herzog)

25) At the Sea (Mundruczo)

18) The Social Reckoning (Fincher)

14) Jack of spades (J. Coen)

13) Artificial (Guadagnino)

7) The Drama (Borgli)

6) Paper Tiger (Gray)

3) Digger (Inarritu)

You can find the complete list here.

VISITTATIONS: THE SECRET AGENT

Two interviews for the Oscar nominated film:

Kleber Mendonca Filho from The New Yorker.

Kleber Mendonca Filho from The Contending.

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Looking to TFF #53 / BAFTA Nominees Announced / Behind the Scenes: Hamnet and H Is for Hawk / Visitations: The Secret Agent

 LOOKING TO TFF #53

Every year about this time MTFB moves into a transition phase as Oscar season closes in on completion (with nominees announced and Oscar winners set to be announced in about six weeks).  We begin to cast our eyes toward Labor Day weekend and what films may flicker to life in the San Juan mountains of Southwest Colorado.

One way to begin that transition is to look at lists of films named to "most anticipated" lists.  We start that today with The Film Stage's 100 Most Anticipated Films of 2026.  I have parsed the list and have come up with 16 titles that seem most possible for TFF #53.  Here those are in the order that The film Stage has ranked them (with director's name included in parentheses):

100) Digger (Inarritu)

78) At the Sea (Mundruczo)

71) Artificial (Guadagnino)

53) Ink (Boyle)

48) Untitled Eisenberg (Eisenberg)

42) Bucking Fastard (Herzog)

36) Parallel Tales (Farhadi)

33) Butterfly (Bagalov)

31) The Unknown (Haradi)

25) Jack of Spades (J. Coen)

15) Ancient History (Baker)

13) A Long Winter (Haigh)

7) Paper tiger (Gray)

6) Untitled Mike Leigh (Leigh)

2) The Way of the Wind (Malick)

Historically 6-8 of these films will actually make it to Telluride.  Last year's stab at this yielded six films hat made it to TFF #52.  The year before...also six.

The complete listing from The Film Stage is linked here.

BAFTA NOMINEES ANNOUNCED

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts named its nominees for film excellence this week.  TFF films actually earned more BAFTA noms than Oscar noms with 43.  Here's how TFF #52 films did:

Hamnet (11): Best Film, Direction, Best British Film, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Supporting Actress (Watson), Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Score.

Sentimental Value (8): Best Film, Direction, Film Not in the English Language, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Original Screenplay and Casting.

Frankenstein (8): Best Supporting Actor (Elordi), Cinematography, Production Design, Sound, Special Visual Effects, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Score.

Bugonia (5): Best Direction, Actor (Plemons), Actress (Stone), Adapted Screenplay and Score.

Pillion (3): Outstanding British Film, Adapted Screenplay and Best British Debut.

The Secret Agent (2): Best Film Not in the English Language, Original Screenplay.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).

If I had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

H Is for Hawk: Outstanding British Film.

It Was Just an Accident: Best Film Not in the English Language.

Cover-Up: Best Documentary.

Apocalypse in the Tropics: Best Documentary.

The complete list of BAFTA nominees is linked here.

BEHIND THE SCENES

*HAMNET

https://x.com/hamnetmovie/status/2015133832140501226?s=20

*H IS FOR HAWK

https://x.com/roadsidetweets/status/2014763864575844662?s=20

VISITATIONS: THE SECRET AGENT

Director Kleber Mendonca Filho for The Secret Agent from The Contending.

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