Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best Telluride predictor I know."
-Sasha Stone, Awards Daily
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
A week ago I debuted the first Ten Bets for the 2023 edition of the Telluride Film Festival. Here's what that looked like a week ago:
1) The Holdovers/Payne
2) May December/Haynes
3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi
4) Monster/Kore-eda
5) Strangers/Haigh
6) El Conde/Larrain
7) Poor Things/Lanthimos
8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet
9) The American Buffalo/Burns
10) The End/Oppenheimer
And after a week of additional snooping, here is your latest iteration of MTFB's Ten Bets:
1) The Holdovers/Payne
2) May December/Haynes
3) Nyad/Chin/Vasarhelyi
4) Strangers/Haigh
5) Poor Things/Lanthimos
6) Monster/Kore-eda
7) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet
8) El Conde/Larrain
9) Saltburn/Fennell
10) The End/Oppenheimer
Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Teachers' Lounge/Catak, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns, Priscilla/Coppola and Shirley/Ridley.
CHECKING THE DISTRIBUTORS: AMAZON STUDIOS
The sifting through the most common recent film distribution companies that have played Telluride and the guessing game about what that might mean for TFF #50 continues today with Amazon Studios.
Here's their track record at TFF over the past few years:
2022: Wildcat, Good Night Oppy
2021: Encounter, A Hero
2020: All In: The Fight for Democracy
2019: The Aeronauts, The Report
2018: Peterloo, Cold War
2017: Wonderstruck
2016: Manchester by the Sea
So, what might we see?
Three possibilities: Emerald Fennell's Saltburn seems the most likely. A couple of sources have indicated that the film is a hot commodity among the Telluride/Venice/Toronto triumvirate.
Other films are Garth Davis' Foe Michael Showalter's The Idea of You and Maggie Betts' The Burial.
Other Amazon films for 2023 have already been released or screened at Sundance making their play at TFF unlikely.
My assessment of chances for these four films:
Saltburn 40%
The Burial 30%
The Idea of You 20%
Foe 20%
TORONTO ANNOUNCES FIRST FILM
The Toronto International Film Festival announced yesterday that it will World Premiere Taika Waititi's Next Goal Wins from distributor/producer Searchlight. That effectively removes the film from TFF #50 consideration...at least on this blog.
I had Next Goal Wins at a 25% chance of making the Telluride lineup when I did my review of Searchlight films on June 19th.
Two other Searchlight films had better shots at Telluride on that June 16th post-Strangers and Poor Things. Both of those films stayed in today's new Ten Bets.
MTFB made an appearance at Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel yesterday as the blog got cited as Ruimy turned his attention to films that might be possibilities for TFF #50.
A Compass
In addition to the films he cites from MTFB's Ten Bets, Ruimy adds this:
"Maybe we’ll also get some of these: Maestro (Cooper), Priscilla (Coppola), The Actor (Johnson), The Bikeriders (Nichols) and Ferrari (Mann). It all depends on their quality, Telluride head Julie Huntsinger is very nitpicky when it comes to curating her lineup."
All of these would be welcome and interesting choices. Of the five Ruimy lists I think Priscilla is the most likely Telluride play. As a matter of fact, Ruimy's speculation is enough for me to add Priscilla to the "Other possibilities" listing for today's update of the Ten Bets.
The complete Telluride 2023 story from WOR click here.
I'm continuing the assessment of various distribution companies and their past TFF profiles as a method of trying to predict the films that will be selected for inclusion to TFF #50. Today's specimen is Focus Features.
Focus has had a robust presence at The SHOW for the last few years:
2022- TAR, Armageddon Time
2021- Belfast, The Card Counter, Red Rocket
2020- The Way I See It
2019- Waves
2018- Boy Erased 2017- Darkest Hour 2015- Suffragette 2012- Hyde Park on Hudson 2006- Catch a Fire
As you can see, Focus has been more present at Telluride the last couple of years and has had one TFF selection every year since 2017. Focus has also had three of its films from TFF nominated for Best Picture: TAR, Belfast and Darkest Hour over the past six years.
So as we contemplate their 2023 we land on two films. One seems to me to be a no-brainer for inclusion at Telluride and the other has a chance.
The no-brainer is Alexander Payne's The Holdovers starring Payne's old Sideways pal Paul Giamatti. Payne has huge connections to Telluride after having served as Guest Director in 2009 as well as serving on the fest's Board of Governors. In addition, he has screened The Descendants (2011), Nebraska (2013) and Downsizing (2017) at TFF.
As a matter of fact, if you saw last Thursday's post of 2023's first "Ten Bets" you'll have seen that I have The Holdovers as the #1 "bet".
The other Focus film that's in the mix is Ethan Coen's first solo directing effort since he and brother Joel decided to split...at least for the time being. The film is Drive Away Dolls which IMDb Pro says went into post-production in May. I'm much less confident that Drive Away is at TFF. Yes, Coen was part of a three-way Tribute at TFF #40 in 2013 with his brother and T. Bone Burnett and Inside Llewyn Davis was screened. But since then both Hail, Caesar! (2016) and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (2018) have come and gone without making a stop at TFF. It remains the only Coen Brothers film to have played at Telluride.
Hail, Caesar! played the Berlin, Glasgow and Belgrade Film Fests after its Feb. 5th premiere and was distributed by Universal. Buster Scruggs played Venice, New York, BFI London and AFI among others prior to its release on Nov. 16th and was from Netflix.
Coen also directed the doc Jerry Lee Lewis; Trouble In Mind which screened at Cannes in 2022 and seems to be under A24's umbrella but has yet to be released in the United States.
All of which is to say that history points to the unlikelihood that Drive Away drives into the San Juans on August 31st.
That said, Ioncinema's Eric Lavallee writing about the film on April 17th said Telluride was in the mix for the film:
"It’s called Drive-Away Dolls. It’s dropping on September 22nd. Telluride, Venice Film Festival and TIFF programmers have their tasers pointed."
Other outlets such as Gold Derby, SlashFilm and The Playlist have at least mentioned the possibility so I can't dismiss it completely.
All of the other Focus films for 2023 have already screened at a domestic film fest-Every Body, A Thousand and One, or have been released-Asteroid City or seem unlikely-My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 set for U.S. release on Sept. 8th.
So for now...chances for Telluride:
The Holdovers 80%
Drive Away Dolls 25%
Serendipitously, as I was writing this portion of the post for today Focus dropped a poster and a trailer for Drive Away Dolls:
“Drive Away Dolls” premieres September 22nd, so look for it to be front and center at the Telluride and Toronto film fests."
I don't know what he knows but that sounds promising.
GUEST DIRECTING FOR THE 50TH
10 years ago, we had gotten down to August 5th and no guest director had yet been named for TFF #40. In my post that day I had a segment on that mystery in which, among other things, I suggested:
"Have 6 of them...I'll bet you have at least 6 past Guest Directors in attendance. Have each of them select one film from the list they originally programmed. Or cross-pollinate them...have an Alexander Payne program one film from Errol Morris' original list."
I even had a list of possible choices for the "half dozen" concept:
"I have to believe that Morris, Tavernier, Sellars, Rushdie, Payne and maybe Bogdanovich, Henry and Boorman will be in town."
Then, when we did find out what TFF had done it WAS six guest directors who had been past Guest Directors: Don DeLillo, Buck Henry, Phillip Lopate, Michael Ondaatje, B. Ruby Rich and Salman Rushdie.
So I had gotten the notion right and two of the six directors.
Honestly, I just sort of blindly stumbled onto what eventually happened.
But, with that in mind, could the fest do something similar for the 50th?
Of that list of six from 2013, all but Buck Henry are still living. Bring all five back? Or a brand new set of six. Or a mix of some from the 40th and other past guest directors.
OR---other thoughts...
*A Guest director from each of the decades since the position was established in 1988.
*Some really BIG NAMES...from entertainment or politics. I suggested this also back in 2013. Maybe names like Obama, Jagger, McCartney?
*Some really BIG NAMES from directing: Scorsese, Spielberg?
*Some TFF regulars who have never Guest Directed: Ken Burns and Werner Herzog unbelievably have never Guest Directed.
I'm very excited to find out what the fest's plans are in this regard.
IT WAS PARTY TIME LAST WEEK
Telluride annually has hosted a party during the summer months in Los Angeles. That happened last Tuesday as was evidenced by a couple of attendees posting pics of their invites on social media.
Deadline's Pete Hammond was there and as he has done in the past, wrote a bit about the evening last Friday. In the post, Hammond makes a claim that I have always thought was likely true:
"The annual June kickoff event in Los Angeles was packed, and as one awards pundit told me, “I always love this party because you can totally get clues as to what movies are going to Telluride just by seeing which studios show up here.”
Hammond then goes on to list at least some of the outfits that were there:
"...there were reps out in force from the likes of Searchlight, Focus Features, Roadside Attractions, Sony Pictures Classics, Netflix, Amazon Studios, and many more, so take your guesses."
If you've been reading this space the last few weeks you'll see a number of distributors on Pete's list that I have already profiled with an analysis of what films that might be bringing to TFF #50:
Focus Features today, Searchlight on June 19th, SPC on June 9th, Netflix on June 5th. I have Amazon teed up for Thursday's post but the Roadside Attractions mention is a little puzzling. For the life of me I can't find a title under the Roadside banner that feels like a TFF candidate.
The film they have that seems the most likely is Bill Pohlad's Dreamin' Wild but it is currently set for release a month before the festival. Sooooo...I'm flummoxed.
TORONTO TEASE
Reportedly the Toronto International Film Festival will announce some information about their fest on Wednesday. Likely it will be an announcement of their opening night film and/or some splashy World Premiere.. Last year at this time TIFF announced that Rian Johnson's Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery would World Premiere there.
What will we hear from them on Wednesday? Maybe The Color Purple? Maestro? The Killer? Or, perhaps the North American Premiere of Killers of the Flower Moon? That last, I think, is still much more likely to show up at the New York Film Fest which opens a week before Flower Moon's announced limited release date of Oct. 6th.
Today's the day...the countdown to the lineup announcement for the 50th Telluride Film Festival on this blog begins in earnest today with 2023's first edition of MTFB's "Ten Bets".
Regular readers will know that this is my first "real" stab at predicting what will be playing at Telluride over the Labor Day weekend. I'll subsequently adjust and expand the list as the summer goes on. Serious indicators occur with announcements about what will be screening at the Toronto and Venice fests and, to a lesser degree Venice's scheduling and the New York Film Fest lineup.
The final Ten Bets for 2023 will be the Monday post on August 28th.
Again, as dedicated readers of this space are aware, MTFB on average lands between 5-6 films on this initial list that end up in the lineup when it is revealed. To wit, last year this was the list of films that comprised the first Ten Bets for TFF #49. Films that actually screened at TFF are in Bold.
1) Bardo/Inarritu
2) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
3) The Son/Zeller
4) Close/Dhont
5) Women Talking/Polley
6) Aftersun/Wells
7) Showing Up/Reichardt
8) White Noise/Baumbach
9) Broker/Kore-eda
10) She Said/M. Schrader
6/10
Here was the 2021 first Ten Bets:
1) The Power of the Dog/Campion
2) Muhammad Ali/Burns, Burns and McMahon
3) The Card Counter/Schrader
4) Nightmare Alley/Del Toro
5) The Velvet Underground/Haynes
6) Bergman Island/Hansen-Love
7) Cow/Arnold
8) A Hero/Farhadi
9) Blonde/Dominik
10) The Story of Looking/Cousins
8/10
Going back to the advent of my Ten Bets approach, here was the track record from 2011-2019:
So, with all of that as prelude, here is MTFB's first Ten Bets for films to play at The SHOW in 2023:
1) The Holdovers/Payne
2) May December/Haynes
3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi
4) Monster/Kore-eda
5) Strangers/Haigh
6) El Conde/Larrain
7) Poor Things/Lanthimos
8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet
9) The American Buffalo/Burns
10) The End/Oppenheimer
Other possibilities: Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Teachers' Lounge/Catak, The Zone of Inerest/Glazer, Saltburn/Fennell, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe and Shirley/Ridley.
There you go. Now let's see how this all unfolds over the next ten weeks.
NEGLIA'S LIST
Matt Neglia, who runs Next Best Picture, posted a terrific piece this week about what film fests had hosted the World Premiere's of Best Picture Oscar nominees. Neglia focused on the nominees since AMPAS adopted the expanded Best Picture field in 2009.
Here's his list for TFF (with best Picture winners in Bold.):
Telluride Film Festival
2022: Women Talking
2021: Belfast & King Richard
2020: None
2019: Ford v Ferrari
2018: None
2017: Darkest Hour, Lady Bird
2016: Moonlight
2015: Room
2014: The Imitation Game
2013: 12 Years A Slave
2012: Argo
2011: The Descendants
2010: 127 Hours, The King’s Speech
2009: Up In The Air
Neglia also includes analysis for Sundance, Cannes, Berlin, SXSW, Venice, Toronto, New York and AFI.
His compilation shows the following statistics for the number of Best Picture World Premieres at these fests:
Venice Film Festival: 21
Sundance Film Festival: 15
Telluride Film Festival: 15
Cannes Film Festival: 14
Toronto Film Festival: 12
New York Film Festival: 8
AFI Fest: 3
Berlin Film Festival: 1
SXSW: 1
So, since 2009 TFF has had the second most World Premieres of Best Picture nominees trailing only Venice and tied with Sundance. However, what Matt doesn't look is the North American Premieres that happen at Telluride (and Toronto and New York for that matter). If you factor those in, then Telluride's place in the fest firmament re: Oscar BP nominations is more pronounced.
Here's the rundown for each year where TFF screened the North American premiere (usually) of films that were Oscar nominated for Best Picture after having their World Premiere at and earlier fest:
2022: TAR (Venice)
2021: The Power of the Dog (Venice)
2020: Nomadland (Venice), The Father (Sundance)
2019: Parasite (Cannes), Marriage Story (Venice)
2018: The Favourite (Venice), Roma (Venice)
2017: The Shape of Water (Venice)
2016: Arrival (Venice), La La Land (Venice), Manchester by the Sea (Sundance)
2015: Spotlight (Venice)
2014: Birdman (Venice)
2013: Nebraska (Cannes), Gravity (Venice)
2012: Amour (Cannes)
2011: The Artist (Cannes)
2010: Black Swan (Venice)
2009: An Education (Sundance)
So all told, 35 films have played Telluride since 2009 and gone on to a Best Picture nomination. Neglia points out that during that same time period 35 films were Best Picture nominated without any festival debut at all.
But Toronto is a huge player. Yes, they have only World Premiered 12 films from 2009-2022 that have been BP nominated BUT...they have also screened a whopping 41 films that were not World Premieres at TIFF but did receive a Best Picture nomination.
Five each from Sundance and Cannes. 17 from Venice and 14 of the Telluride 15 World Premieres went on to Toronto. The only film not of Telluride's 15 that didn't go on to TIFF was King Richard.
Nine Best Picture Oscar winners in the 2009-22 time frame played both Telluride and Toronto. Here are those films:
We have new trailers this week for a couple of films that are on the periphery of Telluride possibilities.
Luca Guadagnino could return to TFF this year with his story of a three person love affair. Challengers features, Zendaya, Mike Faist and Josh O'Connor in a film set in the world of professional tennis. It is being distributed by United Artists Releasing. The film's release date is set for Sept. 15th. Guadagnino's Bones and All as well as Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams were both screened at TFF #49.
And also this week, the trailer for Sofia Coppola's Priscilla which tells the story of the woman who married and divorced Elvis Presley. It stars Cailee Spaeny as Priscilla with Jacob Elordi as the King.
Coppola hasn't screened a film at Telluride since 2003's Lost in Translation but with it being TFF's 50th edition and the Coppola family having strong ties to the history of Telluride, I can see her returning with this film. Priscilla does not yet have an announced release date. Distribution is being handled by A24.
Again, from YouTube:
Both Alex Billington at First Showing.net and Steven Prusakowski at Awards Radar are suggesting that Telluride is realistic stop for the film
The fifth installment of Checking the Distributors looks at Searchlight (which used to be Fox Searchlight until Disney bought them). Searchlight has had a long and distinguished presence at TFF over the years. Here's a look back at the films that they have screened at TFF since 2004:
2022: Empire of Light
2021: The French Dispatch
2020: Nomadland (Best Picture Oscar)
2019: A Hidden Life 2018: The Favourite, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, The Old Man and the Gun 2017: The Shape of Water (Best Picture Oscar), Battle of the Sexes 2016: No Show 2015: He Named Me Malala 2014: Birdman (Best Picture Oscar), Wild 2013: 12 Years a Slave (Best Picture Oscar) 2012: No Show 2011: Shame, The Descendants 2010: Never Let Me Go, 127 Hours, Black Swan 2009: No Show 2008: Slumdog Millionaire (Best Picture Oscar) 2007: Juno, The Savages 2006: The Last King of Scotland, The Namesake 2005: Bee Season 2004: Kinsey
That's 25 films over a span of 19 fests. Five Best Picture Oscar winners:
Slumdog Millionaire 2009
12 Years a Slave 2014
Birdman 2015
The Shape of Water 2018
Nomadland 2021
Plus a total of 81 other Oscar nominations in that time.
So you have to figure that Searchlight likely lands one or two films at TFF #50. The question is which ones?
Four films seem to have the best chance:
Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos (release date is Sept. 8)
Strangers/Andrew Haigh (release date is TBA)
Nightbitch/Marielle Heller (release date is TBA)
Next Goal Wins/Taika Waititi (release date is Nov. 17)
Three of the four directors have been at Telluride previously.
Haigh twice with 45 Years in 2015 and Lean on Pete in 2017.
Lanthimos with The Favourite in 2018
Heller with Can You Ever Forgive Me? also in 2018.
Next Goal Wins has a really weird history between scrubbing Armie Hammer and replacing him with Will Arnett the film has been shuffled around to a number of different release dates and now Searchlight has landed it smack in awards season on the weekend before Thanksgiving.
Poor Things release date is a little odd as well coming right on the heels of both Venice and Telluride. Venice closes on Sept. 9th.
Ultimately, here's where I start out rating their chances of playing T-ride:
Strangers 55%
Poor Things 45%
Next Goal Wins 25%
Nightbitch 10%***
***World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy reported this weekend that he has heard that Nightbitch will premiere at Toronto.
ANATOMY OF A FALL TRAILER AND NEWS
The Palme d'Or winning film, Justine Triet's Anatomy of a Fall has a new trailer out that coincides with its premiere in Paris on Wednesday. The trailer isn't subtitled and has some English and some French spoken in it. Still, it's a chance to get a sense of the prize winning film. Here that is via YouTube:
In additional trailer news, apparently a trailer for Ethan Coen's Drive Away Dolls is screening ahead of Wes Anderson's Asteroid City. I'm assuming its the same trailer screened at CinemaCon. That should mean that we should see it fairly soon.
Meanwhile a Tweet from Ioncinema from earlier this month that I just ran across a couple of days ago suggests that NEON, which is distributing Anatomy of a Fall in the U.S. is aiming for a Telluride berth:
A NEW FILM TO CONSIDER
Photo via IMDb
Kate Winslet's new biopic about journalist Lee Miller is reportedly set to premiere at Venice. It's a film that I have been keeping my eye on for some time but about which there has been little conversation as we get closer to lineup announcements for both Venice and Toronto.
A Venice premiere could also mean a play at TFF #50. "Lee" is currently absent a distributor in the U.S.
Part Four today of MTFB's rundown of the most frequent distribution companies that have screened films at TFF over the past seven years. Today's outfit is NEON.
NEON has had one fewer film actually play Telluride than last Monday's company-A24. That means that NEON is also very close to averaging two films per festival since 2015.
Here's what we have seen from NEON at TFF in that time frame:
2022: Broker, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Oscar nominated for Best Documentary)
2021: Petite Maman, Spencer (Oscar nominated for Best Actress-Kristen Stewart) , Flee (Oscar nominated for Best Animated Film, Best International Film and Best Documentary), Three Minutes-A Lengthening
2020: Ammonite*** if the fest had happened
2019: Parasite (nominated for six Academy Awards and won four including Best Picture and Director). Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Amazing Grace
2018: Border (Oscar nominated for Best Makeup and Hair), The Biggest Little Farm
2017: None
2016: The B-Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography
As we look to NEON's possible participation in TFF #50 we discover that they have a lot of films that could be in play. Foremost is probably Cannes Palme d'Or winner Anatomy of a Fall. The Palme winner hasn't played in Telluride since 2019's Parasite (also distributed by NEON) but that absence may actually work to increase the odds for a spot at Telluride this year.
That said, the most likely two films from the NEON stable to make the TFF #50 list in my estimation are Alice Rohrwacher's La Chimera and Kitty Green's The Royal Hotel. Each of these films start with a 50/50 chance of making the TFF lineup.
Other NEON films that are possibles and where I'd place their chances of selection for TFF are:
The End/Oppenheimer 30%
The Actor/Johnson 20%
Longlegs/Perkins 20%
And I'd also say that if Raoul Peck's George Orwell (co-produced by Alex Gibney) documentary is ready that it too is a possibility at 20%. Its currently listed as "filming".
SALTBURN AND TFF
I thought for a good long while that Emerald Fennell's Saltburn might be a real player for a TFF bid. The writer/director is coming off an Oscar win for Best Original Screenplay for Promising Young Woman (2020) with this much anticipated film.
Well, Jordan Ruimy on Monday reported that Telluride appears to me making a push for the film. Ruimy wrote:
"Now I’m hearing that TIFF, Telluride and Venice are fighting it out for the world premiere of Fennell’s film. Who will win the “Saltburn” stakes? My money is on Venice. It probably will world premiere on the Lido."
And, of course, a Venice World Premiere doesn't necessarily preclude a following screening at Telluride.
IMDb Pro lists Saltburn's distribution status for the U.S. with Amazon but only labeling it as the distributor for video.
FIRST TEN BETS IN ONE WEEK
One week from today MTFB will put up the first Ten Bets for TFF #50. Past attempts at the first Ten Bets have shown that and average of five of the ten will actually show up and play at TFF. Then as the summer continues I will adjust the Ten Bets each week on Thursday to reflect the growing body of evidence pointing to which films we'll be offered over Labor Day weekend.
Today continues our parade through film distribution companies that have had the largest presence at Telluride over the last 7-8 years and because of that are generally the most likely to place films into the TFF #50 lineup. Today's candidate is A24 which, since 2015, has been the third most ubiquitous distrib at TFF with an average of just under hair under 2 films each year chosen to be in the Telluride list: Here's their rundown of films since 2015:
2015-Room
2016-Moonlight
2017-First Reformed, Lady Bird, Lean on Pete
2019-Uncut Gems, Waves, First Cow
2021-C'mon C'mon, Red Rocket, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
2022-Aftersun, Close
Prior to 2015 A24 also screened Ginger + Rosa in 2012 and Under the Skin in 2013.
For 2023 and TFF #50 A24 has these films that are the most likely to appear and the chance that actually happens:
The Zone of Interest-50%
Priscilla-40%
Occupied City-30%
Love Lies Bleeding-20%
Tuesday-10%
MORE VENETIAN THOUGHTS
From The Hollywood Reporter this week, another spec piece about films that could play The Lido. And then, of course, our job is to look at that list and parse what might be scheduled early enough to cross the Atlantic and be in Telluride a day or so later.
From the THR list, here are my guesses as to the films that could follow that scenario:
Poor Things/Lanthimos
Challengers/Gaudagnino
Maestro/Cooper
Saltburn/Fennell
Io Capitano/Garrone
Priscilla/Coppola
The Book of Clarence/Samuels
Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi
Drive Away Dolls/Coen
The Holdovers/Payne
Daaaaaali!/Dupieux
From this list the most likely by far is Alexander Payne's The Holdovers (though I think Nyad is a solid prediction too). Least Likely are Bradley Cooper's Maestro and Ethan Coen's Drive Away Dolls.
My apologoes as MTFB is 24 hours late for its regular Thursday posting. Here it is!
CHECKING THE DISTRIBUTORS: SONY PICTURES CLASSICS
Last Monday I started the annual MTFB tradition of running down the distribution companies that are usually significantly present at Telluride each year. We began with Netflix which, since its first appearance at T-ride in 2015, has screened more features than any other distributor.
The next biggest over that same time period has been Sony Pictures Classics with 20 films over the seven years I'm counting (leaving out the Covid-displaced fest of 2020). That works our to just shy of three films per year from SPC. But SPC has a much longer history with The SHOW dating back many, many years. It's entirely likely that in the entire 50 year history of The SHOW, SPC has likely placed more features and/or documentaries in the lineup than anyone else.
With that in mind, here's my assessment of what SPC has that could play and the chances that they will play.
Currently, as far as I can tell, SPC has ten films that haven't set U.S. release dates but seem finished. None of them seem to be slam dunks. The best SPC bets appear to be:
Ilker Catak's The Teachers' Lounge which played Berlin and won a couple of awards and scored really well among critics. Chances: 50%.
Freund's Last Session from director Matt Brown starring Anthony Hopkins in the title role. It has a Dec. 7th released date listed at IMDb for Russia. 40%.
After those two films, everything I can find for SPC doesn't seem very likely.
A few weeks back I floated the notion that SPC might be able to get A Little Prayer starring David Stratharin into the TFF lineup despite having played Sundance much like they would have done with Anthony Hopkins and The Father in 2020 (if it had happened) and what they did do with Bill Nighy and Living last year. However, since then the film has also screened at Santa Barbara and Nantucket thus killing my scenario.
There's the animated They Shot the Piano Player which comes from the creative team that had Carlos and Rita at Telluride in 2010. However, the film played the 2022 Annecy Animation Fest which begs the question "why didn't TFF schedule it last year?" 25%.
Also floating around is Pedro Almodovar's short film (31 min.) Strange Way of Life starring Ethan Hawke and Pedro Pascal. Almodovar means we have to pay attention. Luke warm critical reaction to the film from Cannes takes some of the shine from it. 25%.
Then there's the John Prine: Hello In There documentary that's listed as being in post since Feb. of 2019... Does it even exist?
In addition to A Little Prayer having played Sundance, other SPC films that did that include: The Persian Version, Shadya and Shortcomings. Tribeca has The Miracle Club (another SPC film I thought might see the light of day at TFF #50), Carlos and Downtown Owl.
SPC does have a couple of animated films that IMDb lists as "filming" in 2022. maybe they will be in play. Sylvain Chomet's The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol. Chomet has had a presence at TFF in the past with The Illusionist and The Triplets of Belleville. The other is A Winter's Journey from Alex Helfrecht.
JOURNALISTIC CLARITY
Well, I rolled the dice this year on my application for press credentials at TFF #50. I did all the required steps. Included the required documentation. I also included a fairly passionate "letter" arguing the merits of MTFB being accredited. As a part of that I concluded with:
"I would argue that the blog benefits the fest much more than any
issues that may annoy festival organizers. MTFB is nothing if not a
love letter to TFF.
Ultimately, if MTFB is never to be accredited again, I’d prefer that
you just tell me that now so that I can quit wasting your time with my
application each year."
Well, I got my response on Monday...and mind you, the deadline to apply doesn't land until June 30th. Here is the reply:
"Hi Michael,
Thank you for applying for media accreditation. Festival organizers have concluded that accreditation is unnecessary for the type of festival coverage produced on your blog. This applies to this year and future festivals. Your Festival-level pass will provide you with all the access you need to cover the event. We have many journalists and bloggers who attend and successfully cover Telluride without accreditation. We look forward to seeing you at the 50th Telluride Film Festival."
So, there you have it. Never going to happen again. Worthy of accreditation from 2012-2019. Forever not from 2020 on.
NEW TRAILER FOR POOR THINGS
Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things is a very likely Venice Fest selection. The film has also been on my radar for some time as a possible TFF #50 selection. Lanthimos last film, The Favourite, played very well at The SHOW back in 2018. The Favourite was distributed by Searchlight and so is Poor Things which also bodes well for a possible TFF screening. Finally, the film is set for release in the U.S. on Sept. 8th. That allows for the possibility of screenings at both Venice and Telluride. It's also just inside the window for Toronto which opens on Sept. 7th though that seems very unlikely.
I posted the first teaser for the film back on May 15th. Now, we have a new full trailer that was released by Searchlight yesterday. Here it is:
The more I see of this the more intrigued I am. Hope it makes it to TFF #50.
One of the methods that I've used over the past several years to "inform" my TFF speculation is to look at the history of films from specific distributors and Telluride. It's not an exact science but can give insight.
So, without further ado we start with what has become over the last 7-8 years the most screened distributor at the Telluride Film Festival: Netflix. Netflix has screened 25 films at TFF since first showing up in 2015. That's an average of 3.6 films/year (I have left out the anomalous Covid year of 2020).
Here's the Netflix track record since 2015:
2015: Beasts of No Nation, Winter on Fire
2016: I Called Him Morgan, The Ivory Game, Into the Inferno
2017: First They Killed My Father, Wormwood
2018: Dovlatov, Girl, Reversing Roe, Roma, The Other Side of the Wind, They'll Love Me When I'm Dead
2019: Inside Bill's Brain, Marriage Story, Tell Me Who I Am, The Two Popes
2020: No announced films
2021: The Hand of God, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog, Procession
2022: Bardo, Lady Chatterley's Lover, Sr., The Wonder
In 2022 it felt like Netflix's slate-both at Telluride and overall- didn't have the same punch as it had in 2018, 2019 or 2021.
That might change in 2023. I checked on the early Oscar lines from a variety of sources to get a sense of the heat for some of Netflix's films.
Variety's Clayton Davis has Netflix titles Maestro (d. Bradley Cooper) and May December (d. Todd Haynes) in his current "early" Best Picture predictions. He also has David Fincher's The Killer in his "Next in Line" list at #19.
After a serious on-again/off-again connectivity issue I finally have the last look at the critical compilation for the films of Cannes #76 from Reini Urabn. Urban's collection of critical responses is massive. You can find that here.
I wrote a couple of weeks ago that Telluride normally programs an average of four films from the top 25 of Urban's compilation. Additionally, the crossover between the fests overall is 7-8 films each year.
This year seven films that I have had my eye on as potential plays at TFF #50 finished in Reini's top 25:
2) The Zone of Interest (8.03) (2nd only to Killers of the Flower Moon)
5) Perfect Days (7.76)
8) Monster (7.57)
12) Fallen Leaves (7.41)
14) La Chimera (7.35)
17) May/December (7.28)
23) The Book of Solutions (7.14)
Other films that I've had on the TFF #50 watch list that finished below the top 25:
41) Occupied City (6.68)
55) Anselm (6.40)
66) The Old Oak (6.11)
93) Strange Way of Life (5.58)
97) The New boy (5.46)
And films that I haven't had my eye on but that Cannes put on my radar:
4) Anatomy of a Fall (7.79) (Palme d'Or winner)
11) Robot Dreams (7.43)
26) The Goldman Case (7.05)
27) How to Have Sex (7.03) (Un Certain Regard winner)
40) The Settlers 6.72
75) The Delinquents (5.96)
NEGLIA'S CANNES/TELLURIDE ANALYSIS
Next Best Picture's Matt Neglia posted a list of a number of films that played at the 76th Cannes Film Festival over the past two weeks that he feels could be in play to be selected for the TFF #50 lineup. from Matt's Twitter feed:
From Matt's list I would certainly concur re: La Chimera, May/December, Monster and The Zone of Interest.
I'd tend to agree based on the critical reception that Palme d'Or winner Anatomy of a Fall and The Goldman case might be in play as well. The others? Maybe.
Other Cannes films that I think may be in play either from my pre-Cannes "feel" or because of their reception/buzz at Cannes include: Fallen Leaves, Perfect Days, Anselm, Strange Way of Life, The Book of Solutions, The Delinquents, The Settlers and maybe even the animated Robot Dreams.
As always, here is my plea to Paramount/Apple, Scorsese...who or whatever, to bring Killers of the Flower Moon to Telluride.
MIYAZAKI-NOT THIS TIME?
I had some thought that Hayao Miyazaki's How Do You Live? might make an appearance at Telluride. He has had a significant presence at TFF over the years with Princess Mononoke, Spirited Away and The Wind Rises all having screened at TFF. However, Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reported yesterday that any festival screening of the new film is unlikely writing, in part:
Miyazaki and Studio Ghibli are perfectly content in having their latest film screen to the Japanese public before the rest of the world, just as they have done with almost every other film of his."
Though the reporting is not absolute on the issue, Rumiy later in the post writes that skipping Venice is a "high possibility".
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