Thursday, March 28, 2024

Vanity Fair's Too Early Oscar Picks and TFF / Cannes Speculation and TFF / The Best Docs of the 21st Century and TFF

VANITY FAIR'S TOO EARLY OSCAR PICKS AND TFF




I'm continuing my current project of scouring early Oscar prognostications for possible titles that might pop up at the 51st Telluride Film Festival.  Today's source is Joe Reid of Vanity Fair. These predicted films seem to me to have the best chance at TFF (listed in the order they are presented in the article):

Megalopolis- Dir: Frances Ford Coppola
Hard Truths- Dir: Mike Leigh
Blitz- Dir: Steve McQueen
Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold
The End- Dir: Joshua Oppenheimer
Conclave- Dir: Edward Berger
The Actor- Dir: Duke Johnson
The Piano Lesson- Dir: Malcolm Washington
Maria- Dir: Pablo Larrain
The Nickel Boys- Dir: RaMell Ross
Queer; Dir: Luca Guadagnino
Long Day's Journey Into Night- Dir: Jonathan Kent
The Apprentice- Dir: Ali Abbasi
SNL 1975- Dir: Jason Reitman



CANNES SPECULATION AND TFF




In addition to Oscar speculation as a way to sense some of the films that could be on their way to Telluride, the films that are selected for inclusion at the Cannes Film Festival merit investigation.

Each year there are a number of films that end up playing at Cannes in May and again as a North American premiere at TFF.  Last year I logged 10 films that played both fests including Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest and The Teachers' Lounge.  The average is around eight per year.

So, to begin that part of the process, I took a look at Screen Daily's annual Cannes speculation  article that was posted a week ago.  Screen Daily divides its list geographically.  That said, here are what feel like films that could possibly make the Cannes/Telluride connection:

Anora- Dir: Sean Baker
Maria- Dir: Pablo Larrain
Megalopolis- Dir: Frances Ford Coppola
Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold
The End- Dir: Joshua Oppenheimer
Emilia Perez-Jacques Audiard
Dear Paris- Dir: Marjane Satrapi



THE BEST DOCS OF THE 21ST CENTURY AND TFF




Indiewire posted a list of what they have determined to be the 52 best documentaries of the 21st century.  Not surprisingly a good number of the films that made the list also made an appearance at the Telluride Film Festival.

Here's the list of docs from the top 52 that screened at TFF.  These are listed in reverse order by where Indiewire ranked them.  The year the doc appeared at Telluride is indicated to the title's right in parentheses:

43) The Central Park Five (2012)\
31) Procession (2021)
29) Fire at Sea (2016)
17) Waltz with Bashir (2008)
13) Bowling for Columbine (2002)
10) The Look of Silence (2015)
9) Stories We Tell (2013)
6) Faces Places (2017)
5) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (2022)
4) Flee (2021)
1) The Act of Killing (2013)




EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (TWITTER): @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

BLUE SKY: https://bsky.app/profile/gort2.bsky.social

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

Monday, March 25, 2024

Offscreen Central's Early Oscar Line and TFF / Carol Doda Opens and Has a Trailer

OFFSCREEN CENTRAL'S EARLY OSCAR LINE AND TFF 




I'm continuing my current project of scouring early Oscar prognostications for possible titles that might pop up at the 51st Telluride Film Festival.  Today's source is Offscreen Central.  For this source I looked at Best Picture Predictions first and then for other possibilities from the acting, directing and screenplay categories.

From their Best Picture predictions:

Blitz
Conclave
Long Day's Journey Into Night
Maria
Megalopolis
The Piano Lesson

And from other category predictions:

The End
The Actor
Queer
Parenthope
Oh, Canada
The Nickel Boys



CAROL DODA HAS LIMITED OPENING AND HAS A TRAILER

One of the documentaries that played The backlot at Telluride last Labor Day was Marlo McKenzie and Jonathan Parker's Carol Doda Topless at The Condor.  The film tells the story of America's first topless nightclub performer.

The film opened in a limited fashion this past weekend and will expand in the comin weeks.


And the Red band trailer from YouTube:












EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (TWITTER): @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

BLUE SKY: https://bsky.app/profile/gort2.bsky.social

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

Thursday, March 21, 2024

Next Best Picture's Early Oscar Line and TFF / Daddio Has a Date / Interviews and Profiles

 NEXT BEST PICTURE'S EARLY OSCAR LINE AND TFF



I'm continuing my current project of scouring early Oscar prognostications for possible titles that might pop up at the 51st Telluride Film Festival.  Today's source is Daniel Howat from Next Best Picture.  For this source I looked at Best Picture Predictions first and then for other possibilities from the acting, directing and screenplay categories.

So here are the films from those predictions that seem to me to be the most Telluride-ific.

The Actor-Dir: Duke Johnson
Blitz-Dir: Steve McQueen
Conclave-Dir: Edward Berger
Long Day's Journey Into Night"- Dir: Jonathan Kent
Maria- Dir: Pablo Larrain
The Piano Lesson- Dir: Malcolm Washington
Queer- Dir: Luca Guadagnino
Juror #2- Dir: Clint Eastwood
Mother Mary- Dir: David Lowery
Anora- Dir: Sean Baker
The Apprentice- Dir: Ali Abbasi
Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold
The Collaboration- Dir: Kwame Kwei-Armah
Emilia Perez- Dir: Jacques Audiard
Megalopolis- Dir: Francis Ford Coppola
The Nickel Boys- Dir: RaMell Ross
Polaris- Dir: Lynne Ramsay




DADDIO HAS A DATE


Dakota Johnson at the post-screening Q+A for Daddio at Telluride



Indiewire reports that Sony Pictures Classics has dated the release for Christ Hall's Daddio. The film will hit theaters on June 28th.  Dakota Johnson and Sean Penn star.

The IMDb description:

"A woman taking a cab ride from JFK engages in a conversation with the taxi driver about the important relationships in their lives."

I caught Daddio at telluride and was quite taken with it.


INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES




EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (TWITTER): @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

BLUE SKY: https://bsky.app/profile/gort2.bsky.social

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

Monday, March 18, 2024

Variety's Early Oscar Predictions and TFF / MTFB's Unofficial TFF Oscar History Updated / Trailers: Wildcat and Food Inc. 2 / Interviews and Profiles

VARIETY'S EARLY OSCAR PREDICITONS AND TFF




I'm continuing my current project of scouring early Oscar prognostications for possible titles that might pop up at the 51st Telluride Film Festival.  Today's source is Clayton Davis from Variety.  For this source I looked at Best Picture Predictions first and then for other possibilities from the acting, directing and screenplay categories.

So here are the films from those predictions that seem to me to be the most Telluride-ific.

From Clayton's 10 Best Picture predictions:

Andrea Arnold's Bird
Steve McQueen's Blitz
Edward Berger's Conclave
Joshua Oppenheimer's The End
Francis Ford Coppola's Megalopolis
RaMell Ross' The Nickel Boys
Malcolm Washington's The Piano Lesson

From Clayton's alternates for Best Picture:

Ali Abbasi's The Apprentice
Mike Leigh's Hard Truths
Pablo Larrain's Maria
Paolo Sorrentino's Parenthope
Luca Gaudagnino's Queer
Jason Reitman's SNL 1975

And from the other categories:

Paul Schrader's Oh Canada
Duke Johnson's The Actor
Jonathan Kent's Long Day's Journey Into Night




MTFB'S UNOFFICIAL TFF OSCAR HISTORY UPDATED




As promised, the Unofficial TFF Oscar History Page has been updated to reflect the results of the recently concluded Oscar season.  Highlighted updates are that TFF films collectively went over 600 total nominations (607 to be exact).  TFF films have won 127 Oscars.  

I have included a new nugget with this update and that is a list of TFF films that earned four or more Oscar wins.

See all the newly included info from this year's Oscars plus the new section by using the link above on the masthead.


TRAILERS

FOR ETHAN HAWKE'S WILDCAT



AND FOR ROBERT KENNER AND MELISSA ROBLEDO'S FOOD INC. 2




INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES




EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (TWITTER): @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

BLUE SKY: https://bsky.app/profile/gort2.bsky.social

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Some Other Post Oscar Notes / So Early, But... / Interviews and Profiles

SOME OTHER POST OSCAR NOTES




2023's edition of the Telluride Film Festival was much more Oscar connected than the 2022 SHOW.  The 49th TFF had films that earned 17 total nominations and a single win for Best Adapted Screenplay for Sarah Polley's Women Talking.

The 50th version saw a dramatic jump in both nominations and wins.  35 total nominations and an a solid nine wins.  For context the 35 nominations tied 2016 and 2021 TFFs for the years with the most nominations.  The nine Oscar wins is the third largest number of Oscar wins for TFFs. 2016 saw TFF films win 12 Oscars and in 2013 TFF films won 10.

For other trivia about the TFF/Oscar connection take a look next week at my TFF Unofficial Oscar History page which has a link above.


SO EARLY, BUT...




Gold Derby is up with an incredibly early list of 20 films that they bill as "Early Contenders" for Oscar glory a year from now.  That gives me an opportunity to begin looking at those films and see which ones could be TFF #51 contenders as well.

What to kook for?  TFF history with a film's director, producer and/or distributor.  Or sometimes it's a gut feeling irrespective of any of those characteristics.

At any rate...here are films from the list of 20 that seem like TFF possibilities:

The Apprentice Dir: Ali Abbasi.
Bird Dir: Andrea Arnold.
Blitz Dir: Steve McQueen.  Distrib: Apple TV+
Conclave Dir: Edward Berger.  Distrib: Focus Features
Maria Dir: Pablo Larrain (it probably also doesn't hurt for TFF chances that the cinematographer is Ed Lachman)
Megalopolis Dir: Frances Ford Coppola
Parthenope Dir: Paolo Sorrentino
The Piano Lesson Dir: Malcolm Washington. Distrib: Netflix
Queer Dir: Luca Guadagnino



INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Monday, March 11, 2024

OSCAR 2024 / Turn the Page

OSCAR 2024




A memorable Oscar night last night.

Telluride 2023 films pick up an astonishing nine Oscar wins.  That was above what I was predicting.  The Oscars went to:

Poor Things (4): Best Actress (Emma Stone), Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.
The Zone of Interest (2): Best International Film and Sound.
The Holdovers (1): Best Supporting Actress (Da'Vine Joy Randolph).
Anatomy of a Fall (1): Best Original Screenplay.
The Last Repair Shop (1): Best Documentary Short.

My prediction success: 19 of 23 for a rate of 82.6 %.  That's a bit higher than my 78.5% rate since 2014. I missed Best Actress, Best Sound, Best Animated Feature and Best Visual Effects.  

I was pleasantly surprised to get all of the Short subject winners right.  For the first time ever, I believe, in each of the four categories that I picked incorrectly, the film/performer I had as the potential upset was, in fact, the winner.

Over at Gold Derby, though, 19/23 is nothing to get snooty about.  I finished 891st out of  11,034 participants.

19/23, though, was better all but one Gold Derby expert (Nikki Novak from Fandango).  I was tied with Shawn Edwards, Susan King and Pete Hammond.  I was ahead of experts from Variety, Indiewire, Next Best Picture, ABC, USA Today, People and Awards Daily.  I'm thinking of petitioning Gold Derby to become one of their expert contributors.


TURN THE PAGE




And now, as we do every year at this time, we turn our attention in a more concentrated fashion to speculation and prediction about the lineup possibilities for the Telluride Film Festival.  Over the next few weeks, I'll be scouring media for early Oscar 2025 predictions for clues as well as the Cannes lineup, set to be revealed, we believe, on April 11th.  That should give us some notions about what to expect over Labor Day weekend.



EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (TWITTER): @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

BLUE SKY: https://bsky.app/profile/gort2.bsky.social

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

Sunday, March 10, 2024

MTFB SPECIAL: FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR TONIGHT

 FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS (TFF films in Bold).

Best Picture:  Winner: Oppenheimer. Upset: The Holdovers.
Best Direction: Winner: Christopher Nolan/Oppenheimer. Upset: Jonathan Glazer/The Zone of Interest
Best Actress: Winner: Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon. Upset: Emma Stone/Poor Things
Best Actor: Winner: Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer.  Upset: Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers.
Best Supporting Actress: Winner: Da'Vine Joy Randolph/The Holdovers.  Upset: Emily Blunt/Oppenheimer.
Best Supporting Actor: Winner: Robert Downey, Jr./Oppenheimer.  Upset: Ryan Gosling/Barbie.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Winner: American Fiction.  Upset: Barbie.
Best Original Screenplay: Winner: Anatomy of a Fall.  Upset: The Holdovers.
Best International Film: Winner: The Zone of Interest.  Upset: Society of the Snow.
Best Animated Film: Winner: Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse.  Upset: The Boy and the Heron.
Best Documentary: Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol.  Upset: Bobi Wine: The People's President.
Best Cinematography: Winner: Oppenheimer.  Upset: Poor Things.
Best Editing: Winner: Oppenheimer.  Upset: The Holdovers.
Best Original Score: Winner: Oppenheimer.  Upset: Killers of the Flower Moon.
Best Original Song: Winner: What Was I Made For?/Barbie.  Upset: I'm Just Ken/Barbie.
Best Production Design: Winner: Poor Things.  Upset: Barbie.
Best Costume Design: Winner: Poor Things.  Upset: Barbie.
Best Makeup/Hair: Winner: Maestro.  Upset: Poor Things.
Best Visual Effects: Winner: The Creator.  Upset: Godzilla Minus One.
Best Sound: Winner: Oppenheimer. Upset: The Zone of Interest.
Best Live Action Short: Winner: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar.  Upset: The After.
Best Documentary Short: Winner: The Last Repair Shop.  Upset: The ABCs of Book Burning.
Best Animated Short: Winner: War Is Over Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko.  Upset: Letter to a Pig.

MTFB is predicting that TFF films will win five Oscars.  
Poor Things (2): Cstumes and Production Design.
The Holdovers (1): Best Supporting Actress
The Zone of Interest (1) Best International Feature
The Last Repair Shop (1): Best Documentary Short



Here's my track record of predicting Oscar winners over the last several years:

2023: 18/23 78.3% 
2022: 21/23 91.3% 
2021: 16/23 69.6% 
2020: 19/24 79.2% 
2019: 19/24 79.2% 
2018: 21/24 87.5% 
2017: 15/24 62.5% 
2016: 15/24 62.5% 
2015: 20/24 83.3% 
2014: 22/24 91.7% 

That's 186/237 over the decade for a success rate at 78.5%.


FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS














Thursday, March 7, 2024

My TFF Saved / MTFB Oscar Update: The Penultimate Picks for the Final Seven Categories / Cannes Speculation Heating Up / Interviews and Profiles

MY TFF SAVED




For those who have been following the saga of "no passes for the Patterson's for TFF #51", I am pleased to report that disaster has been averted.  I can't get into what was involved but as of today's post it appears that MTFB will be physically at Telluride over Labor Day weekend complete with pass in hand.

My deepest appreciation for everyone who reached out with suggestions about how to resolve the issue.  Your advice and friendship mean the world to me.

See you in The Ride in late August/early September!


MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: THE PENULTIMATE PICKS FOR THE FINAL SEVEN






Here's your MTFB Update for the remining seven Oscar categories that I have not updated in this latest round of predictions.  TFF films are in Bold.

COSTUMES




1) Poor Things (1)
2) Barbie (2)
3) Killers of the Flower Moon (3)
4) Oppenheimer (4)
5) Napoleon (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Maestro (1)
2) Poor Things (2)
3) Oppenheimer (3)
4) Golda (4)
5) Society of the Snow (5)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Creator (1)
2) Godzilla Minus One (2)
3) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (3)
4) Napoleon (4)
5) Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (5)

SOUND




1) Oppenheimer (1)
2) The Zone of Interest (2)
3) Maestro (3)
4) The Creator (4)
5) Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (5)

ANIMATED SHORT

1) War Is Over (1)
2) Letter to a Pig (2)
3) Ninety Five Senses (3)
4) Pachyderme (5)
5) Our Uniform (4)


DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Last Repair Shop (1)
2) The ABCs of Book Burning (2)
3) Nai Nai and Wai Po (3)
4) The Barber of Little Rock (4)
5) Island in Between (5)

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (1)
2) The After (2)
3) Red, White and Blue (3)
4) Knight of Fortune (5)
5) Invincible (4)


Comment: Very stable predictions over the past couple of weeks.  Only two of these categories seem all but locked: Makeup/Hair and Animated Short.  The rest are very, very competitive.

Final Oscar predictions for all 23 categories will up on Sunday hours before the ceremony.


CANNES SPECUALTION HEATING UP




Frequent readers of MTFB know that the Telluride Film Festival annually screens a substantial number of films that have screened at Cannes.  If you're serious about trying to determine some of the films that will possibly make the TFF lineup, you have to pay attention to films that stop in France first.

Last year, the films that screened both fests included: Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves, La Chimera, Occupied City, Perfect Days, The Taste of Things, and The Zone of Interest.

So, I have been sifting through some pieces that are spitballing what may and may not be at Cannes that also seem to have the kind of pedigree to make the Labor Day trip to Colorado.  Looking at posts from Variety,  Deadline.com and World of Reel.

Reportedly Cannes will announce the bulk of the 2024 lineup on April 11th.

Variety speculates that the following films could be Cannes bound (and these are the ones that seem to have early TFF potential):

Jacques Audiard's Emilia Perez 
Ali Abassi's The Apprentice
Paolo Sorrentino's Parenthope
Yorgos Lanthimos' Kinds of Kindness
Andrea Arnold's Bird
Francis Ford Coppola's Megalopolis

Variety says that Steve McQueen's Blitz is off the table for Cannes.

Deadline is in agreement with Variety in terms of Emilia Perez, Parenthope, Kinds of Kindness, Bird and Megalopolis.  In addition to those they include a couple of other films that "feel" possible for Telluride:  Balthazar Kormakur's Touch and Edward Berger's The Conclave.

Deadline also concurs with Variety reporting the unlikelihood of Blitz playing Cannes and adds other doubtfuls (that could be TFF possibles): 

Clint Eastwood's Juror #2
Pablo Larrain's Maria
Paul Schrader's Oh Canada
Joshua Oppenheimer's The End
Mike Leigh's Hard Truths.

And from World of Reel's constantly evolving list of Cannes possibilities that might also be TFF contenders...agreement on:

Kinds of Kindness
Megalopolis
Bird
Emilia Perez
Parenthope
The Apprentice
Touch
The Conclave

Three additional titles from WOR's list that I would include as TFF possibilties:

Sean Baker's Anora
Julian Schnabel's In the Hands of Dante
Guy Maddin's Rumors

So there's some titles to chew on.

Links to each of the posts:







INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES





EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (TWITTER): @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

BLUE SKY: https://bsky.app/profile/gort2.bsky.social

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

Monday, March 4, 2024

MTFB Oscar Update: The Penultimate Middle Eight Predictions / The Satellite Awards and TFF / The Bikeriders Has a New Trailer / Pass Saga / Interviews and Profiles

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PENULTIMATE THE MIDDLE EIGHT PREDICTIONS


 BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE




1) The Zone of Interest/United Kingdom (1)
2) Society of the Snow/Spain (2)
3) The Teachers' Lounge/Germany (3)
4) Perfect Days/Japan (4)
5) Io Capitano/Italy (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) 20 Days in Mariupol (1)
2) Bobi Wine: The People's President (2)
3) Four Daughters (3)
4) The Eternal Memory (4)
5) To Kill a Tiger (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse (1)
2) The Boy and the Heron (2)
3) Elemental (3)
4) Nimona (4)
5) Robot Dreams (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG




1) What Was I Made For?/Barbie (1)
2) I'm Just Ken/Barbie (2)
3) Whazhazhe/Killers of the Flower Moon (4)
4) It Never Went Away/American Symphony (3)
5) The Fire Inside/Flamin' Hot (5)

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Oppenheimer (1)
2) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)
3) Poor Things (3)
4) American Fiction (4)
5) Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (5)


CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Oppenheimer (1)
2) Poor Things (3)
3) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)
4) Maestro (4)
5) El Conde (5)


EDITING




1) Oppenheimer (1)
2) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)
3) Anatomy of a Fall (3)
4) Poor Things (4)
5) The Holdovers (5)


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Poor Things (2)
2) Barbie (1)
3) Oppenheimer (3)
4) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)
5) Napoleon (5)

Comment:  Seven of the eight categories seem locked and have been consistent throughout the post-nomination period.  Production Design is the only one of these eight that remains competitive.  It's super-tight between Poor Things and Barbie.  I've moved Poor Things to the top of the PD chart based on its BAFTA win but this category could go either way and is definitely one of a handful that will determine Oscar pool winners/losers.


THE SATELLITE AWARDS AND TFF




The International Press Academy's Satellite Awards were revealed Sunday night.  Three TFF films earned wins:

The Holdovers (4): Best Film (Comedy or Musical), Best Actor (Comedy or Musical, Best Supporting Actress and Best Film Editing.

Poor Things (2): Best Actress (Comedy or Musical), Best Supporting Actor (Ruffalo).

The Zone of Interest (1): Best International Feature.




THE BIKERIDERS HAS A NEW TRAILER

Focus Features released a second official trailer for Jeff Nichol's The Bikeriders.  The film received mixed reviews out of TFF but I was rather enthusiastic about it.  It stars Tom Hardy, Austin Butler and Jodie Comer who steals the movie.  The film will be released on June 21st.

Here's the new trailer from YouTube:



PASS SAGA




503 Error Codes that popped up even before the passes for TFF #51 went up for sale and then a torturous process for actually getting the info to actually purchase passes resulted in the first ever situation where the Patterson's don't have passes for a TFF since the second year we attended (2007).  And I know anecdotally that we weren't the only folks that experienced the same issue.

I have communicated with the pass team and have another couple of angles I am exploring.  We're not giving up yet, but Friday was massively frustrating and disheartening.

I do want to pass along a big "thank you" to any number of MTFB readers who offered their services or suggestions in the effort to get the deed done on Friday as well as post-failure suggestions about resolving the situation.

We have our lodging secured and will keep pursuing passes by other means for a bit anyway.  


INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES





EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (TWITTER): @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

BLUE SKY: https://bsky.app/profile/gort2.bsky.social

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays