OSCAR 2024 / Turn the Page

OSCAR 2024

A memorable Oscar night last night.

Telluride 2023 films pick up an astonishing nine Oscar wins.  That was above what I was predicting.  The Oscars went to:

Poor Things (4): Best Actress (Emma Stone), Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

The Zone of Interest (2): Best International Film and Sound.

The Holdovers (1): Best Supporting Actress (Da'Vine Joy Randolph).

Anatomy of a Fall (1): Best Original Screenplay.

The Last Repair Shop (1): Best Documentary Short.

My prediction success: 19 of 23 for a rate of 82.6 %.  That's a bit higher than my 78.5% rate since 2014. I missed Best Actress, Best Sound, Best Animated Feature and Best Visual Effects.  

I was pleasantly surprised to get all of the Short subject winners right.  For the first time ever, I believe, in each of the four categories that I picked incorrectly, the film/performer I had as the potential upset was, in fact, the winner.

Over at Gold Derby, though, 19/23 is nothing to get snooty about.  I finished 891st out of  11,034 participants.

19/23, though, was better all but one Gold Derby expert (Nikki Novak from Fandango).  I was tied with Shawn Edwards, Susan King and Pete Hammond.  I was ahead of experts from Variety, Indiewire, Next Best Picture, ABC, USA Today, People and Awards Daily.  I'm thinking of petitioning Gold Derby to become one of their expert contributors.

TURN THE PAGE

And now, as we do every year at this time, we turn our attention in a more concentrated fashion to speculation and prediction about the lineup possibilities for the Telluride Film Festival.  Over the next few weeks, I'll be scouring media for early Oscar 2025 predictions for clues as well as the Cannes lineup, set to be revealed, we believe, on April 11th.  That should give us some notions about what to expect over Labor Day weekend.

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My TFF Saved / MTFB Oscar Update: The Penultimate Picks for the Final Seven Categories / Cannes Speculation Heating Up / Interviews and Profiles

MY TFF SAVED

For those who have been following the saga of "no passes for the Patterson's for TFF #51", I am pleased to report that disaster has been averted.  I can't get into what was involved but as of today's post it appears that MTFB will be physically at Telluride over Labor Day weekend complete with pass in hand.

My deepest appreciation for everyone who reached out with suggestions about how to resolve the issue.  Your advice and friendship mean the world to me.

See you in The Ride in late August/early September!

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: THE PENULTIMATE PICKS FOR THE FINAL SEVEN

Here's your MTFB Update for the remining seven Oscar categories that I have not updated in this latest round of predictions.  TFF films are in Bold.

COSTUMES

1) Poor Things (1)

2) Barbie (2)

3) Killers of the Flower Moon (3)

4) Oppenheimer (4)

5) Napoleon (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Maestro (1)

2) Poor Things (2)

3) Oppenheimer (3)

4) Golda (4)

5) Society of the Snow (5)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Creator (1)

2) Godzilla Minus One (2)

3) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (3)

4) Napoleon (4)

5) Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (5)

SOUND

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) The Zone of Interest (2)

3) Maestro (3)

4) The Creator (4)

5) Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning (5)

ANIMATED SHORT

1) War Is Over (1)

2) Letter to a Pig (2)

3) Ninety Five Senses (3)

4) Pachyderme (5)

5) Our Uniform (4)

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Last Repair Shop (1)

2) The ABCs of Book Burning (2)

3) Nai Nai and Wai Po (3)

4) The Barber of Little Rock (4)

5) Island in Between (5)

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (1)

2) The After (2)

3) Red, White and Blue (3)

4) Knight of Fortune (5)

5) Invincible (4)

Comment: Very stable predictions over the past couple of weeks.  Only two of these categories seem all but locked: Makeup/Hair and Animated Short.  The rest are very, very competitive.

Final Oscar predictions for all 23 categories will up on Sunday hours before the ceremony.

CANNES SPECUALTION HEATING UP

Frequent readers of MTFB know that the Telluride Film Festival annually screens a substantial number of films that have screened at Cannes.  If you're serious about trying to determine some of the films that will possibly make the TFF lineup, you have to pay attention to films that stop in France first.

Last year, the films that screened both fests included: Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves, La Chimera, Occupied City, Perfect Days, The Taste of Things, and The Zone of Interest.

So, I have been sifting through some pieces that are spitballing what may and may not be at Cannes that also seem to have the kind of pedigree to make the Labor Day trip to Colorado.  Looking at posts from Variety,  Deadline.com and World of Reel.

Reportedly Cannes will announce the bulk of the 2024 lineup on April 11th.

Variety speculates that the following films could be Cannes bound (and these are the ones that seem to have early TFF potential):

Jacques Audiard's Emilia Perez 

Ali Abassi's The Apprentice

Paolo Sorrentino's Parenthope

Yorgos Lanthimos' Kinds of Kindness

Andrea Arnold's Bird

Francis Ford Coppola's Megalopolis

Variety says that Steve McQueen's Blitz is off the table for Cannes.

Deadline is in agreement with Variety in terms of Emilia Perez, Parenthope, Kinds of Kindness, Bird and Megalopolis.  In addition to those they include a couple of other films that "feel" possible for Telluride:  Balthazar Kormakur's Touch and Edward Berger's The Conclave.

Deadline also concurs with Variety reporting the unlikelihood of Blitz playing Cannes and adds other doubtfuls (that could be TFF possibles): 

Clint Eastwood's Juror #2

Pablo Larrain's Maria

Paul Schrader's Oh Canada

Joshua Oppenheimer's The End

Mike Leigh's Hard Truths.

And from World of Reel's constantly evolving list of Cannes possibilities that might also be TFF contenders...agreement on:

Kinds of Kindness

Megalopolis

Bird

Emilia Perez

Parenthope

The Apprentice

Touch

The Conclave

Three additional titles from WOR's list that I would include as TFF possibilties:

Sean Baker's Anora

Julian Schnabel's In the Hands of Dante

Guy Maddin's Rumors

So there's some titles to chew on.

Links to each of the posts:

Variety

Deadline

World of Reel

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Director Alexander Payne and Screenwriter David Hemingson for The Holdovers from The National Board of Review.

Sound Designer Johnnie Burn for The Zone of Interest from The Desert Sun.

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MTFB Oscar Update: The Penultimate Middle Eight Predictions / The Satellite Awards and TFF / The Bikeriders Has a New Trailer / Pass Saga / Interviews and Profiles

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PENULTIMATE THE MIDDLE EIGHT PREDICTIONS

 BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) The Zone of Interest/United Kingdom (1)

2) Society of the Snow/Spain (2)

3) The Teachers' Lounge/Germany (3)

4) Perfect Days/Japan (4)

5) Io Capitano/Italy (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) 20 Days in Mariupol (1)

2) Bobi Wine: The People's President (2)

3) Four Daughters (3)

4) The Eternal Memory (4)

5) To Kill a Tiger (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse (1)

2) The Boy and the Heron (2)

3) Elemental (3)

4) Nimona (4)

5) Robot Dreams (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) What Was I Made For?/Barbie (1)

2) I'm Just Ken/Barbie (2)

3) Whazhazhe/Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

4) It Never Went Away/American Symphony (3)

5) The Fire Inside/Flamin' Hot (5)

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)

3) Poor Things (3)

4) American Fiction (4)

5) Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (5)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Poor Things (3)

3) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)

4) Maestro (4)

5) El Conde (5)

EDITING

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)

3) Anatomy of a Fall (3)

4) Poor Things (4)

5) The Holdovers (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Poor Things (2)

2) Barbie (1)

3) Oppenheimer (3)

4) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

5) Napoleon (5)

Comment:  Seven of the eight categories seem locked and have been consistent throughout the post-nomination period.  Production Design is the only one of these eight that remains competitive.  It's super-tight between Poor Things and Barbie.  I've moved Poor Things to the top of the PD chart based on its BAFTA win but this category could go either way and is definitely one of a handful that will determine Oscar pool winners/losers.

THE SATELLITE AWARDS AND TFF

The International Press Academy's Satellite Awards were revealed Sunday night.  Three TFF films earned wins:

The Holdovers (4): Best Film (Comedy or Musical), Best Actor (Comedy or Musical, Best Supporting Actress and Best Film Editing.

Poor Things (2): Best Actress (Comedy or Musical), Best Supporting Actor (Ruffalo).

The Zone of Interest (1): Best International Feature.

The complete list of winners can be found here.

THE BIKERIDERS HAS A NEW TRAILER

Focus Features released a second official trailer for Jeff Nichol's The Bikeriders.  The film received mixed reviews out of TFF but I was rather enthusiastic about it.  It stars Tom Hardy, Austin Butler and Jodie Comer who steals the movie.  The film will be released on June 21st.

Here's the new trailer from YouTube:

PASS SAGA

503 Error Codes that popped up even before the passes for TFF #51 went up for sale and then a torturous process for actually getting the info to actually purchase passes resulted in the first ever situation where the Patterson's don't have passes for a TFF since the second year we attended (2007).  And I know anecdotally that we weren't the only folks that experienced the same issue.

I have communicated with the pass team and have another couple of angles I am exploring.  We're not giving up yet, but Friday was massively frustrating and disheartening.

I do want to pass along a big "thank you" to any number of MTFB readers who offered their services or suggestions in the effort to get the deed done on Friday as well as post-failure suggestions about resolving the situation.

We have our lodging secured and will keep pursuing passes by other means for a bit anyway.  

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Composer Jerskin Fendrix on Poor Things from A.Frame.

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MTFB Oscar Update: The Big Eight Penultimate Predix / Carol Doda Has a Trailer / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: THE BIG EIGHT

We're down to less than three weeks before they open the envelopes on March 10th.  Here's is my latest update on the predicted winners in the "Big Eight" of the 23 Oscar categories. Today's listing also includes a film/performers previous MTFB rank to the right in parentheses.  TFF films are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Poor Things (2)

3) The Holdovers (3)

4) Anatomy of a Fall (6)

5) American Fiction (7)

6) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

7) Barbie (5)

8) The Zone of Interest (8)

9) Maestro (9)

10) Past Lives (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Christopher Nolan/Oppenheimer (1)

2) Yorgos Lanthimos/Poor Things (2)

3) Martin Scorsese/Killers of the Flower Moon (3)

4) Jonathan Glazer/The Zone of Interest (4)

5) Justine Triet/Anatomy of a Fall (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon (1)

2) Emma Stone/Poor Things (2)

3) Sandra Huller/Anatomy of a Fall (3)

4) Annette Bening/Nyad (4)

5) Carey Mulligan/Maestro (5)

BEST ACTOR

1) Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer (2)

2) Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers (1)

3) Bradley Cooper/Maestro (3)

4) Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction (4)

5) Colman Domingo/Rustin (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Da'Vine Joy Randolph/The Holdovers (1)

2) Emily Blunt/Oppenheimer (2)

3) America Ferrera/Barbie (4)

4) Danielle Brooks/The Color Purple (3)

5) Jodie Foster/Nyad (3)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Robert Downey, Jr./Oppenheimer (1)

2) Ryan Gosling/Barbie (2)

3) Mark Ruffalo/Poor Things (3)

4) Robert DeNiro/Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

5) Sterling K. Brown/American Fiction (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) American Fiction (3)

2) Barbie (2)

3) Oppenheimer (1)

4) Poor Things (4)

5) The Zone of Interest (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anatomy of a Fall (1)

2) The Holdovers (2)

3) Past Lives (3)

4) Maestro (4)

5) May December (5)

Comment: Seem to be locked: Oppy for Best Picture, Nolan/Direction, Randolph/Supporting Actress, Downey for Supporting Actor and new to the "locked" category, Anatomy of a Fall for Original Screenplay.  The Holdovers seems to have lost steam in the past couple of weeks in its bid for Original Screenplay.

Too close to call: Lead Acting races between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone as well as Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti.  At the moment I am currently giving the edge to Gladstone and Murphy due to SAG Awards wins.  Also to close to call is Adapted Screenplay.  It has been a three horse race but American Fiction and Barbie seem to have created a little separation from Oppenheimer.

Currently I have TFF films winning in two of these eight categories: Da'Vine Joy Randolph/The Holdovers and Anatomy of a Fall for Original Screenplay.

Final predictions for these categories will be posted on Oscar morning, March 10th in a special MTFB post.

 

CAROL DODA HAS A TRAILER

Picturehouse has dropped a Red Band trailer for the TFF #50 Documentary Carol Doda: Topless at the Condor.  That became available on Tuesday.  Here it is from YouTube:

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Da'Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers from NPR.

Producer Ed Guiney for Poor Things from The Hollywood Reporter.

Producer James Wilson for The Zone of Interest from The Hollywood Reporter.

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MTFB Oscar Update: The Final Seven / SAG Awards and TFF / Interviews and Profiles

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: THE FINAL SEVEN

Here's your MTFB Update for the remining seven Oscar categories that I have not updated in this latest round of predictions.  TFF films are in Bold.

COSTUMES

1) Poor Things

2) Barbie

3) Killers of the Flower Moon

4) Oppenheimer

5) Napoleon

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Maestro

2) Poor Things

3) Oppenheimer

4) Golda

5) Society of the Snow

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Creator

2) Godzilla Minus One

3) Guardians of the Galaxy vol. 3

4) Napoleon

5) Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning

SOUND

1) Oppenheimer

2) The Zone of Interest

3) Maestro

4) The Creator

5) Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning

ANIMATED SHORT

1) War Is Over

2) Letter to a Pig

3) Ninety Five Senses

4) Our Uniform

5) Pachyderme

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Last Repair Shop

2) The ABCs of Book Burning

3) Nai Nai and Wai Po

4) The Barber of Little Rock

5) Island in Between

Comment: Almost all of these categories are competitive.  Documentary Short is particularly tight between Last Repair Shop and ABCs of Book Burning with Nai Nai and Barber of Little Rock also possible.  Costumes is also a very close category as Poor Things and Barbie appear to be duking it out in multiple craft categories.

As you can see from above MTFB predicts (for the moment) that TFF films Poor Things and The Last Repair Shop will win Oscars on March 10th.  Across all 23 categories MTFB projects TFF films winning a total of six Oscars.  In addition to the two listed above MTFB has The Holdovers winning two acting awards for Giamatti and Randolph.  Anatomy of a Fall winning Original Screenplay and The Zone of Interest winning International Feature.  

Additionally, Emma Stone could win over Lily Gladstone for Best Actress.  The Holdovers could sub- out for Anatomy of a Fall for Original Screenplay.  Poor Things could upend Barbie for Production Design.

Over the next three posts, I'll update each group (Big Eight, Middle Eight and Final Seven) one more time before final predictions on March 10th.

SAG AWARDS AND TFF

TFF films had a tough night at the SAG Awards Saturday night as the only TFF winner was Da'Vine Joy Randolph for Best Supporting Actress for Alexander Payne's The Holdovers. Other TFF acting contenders that were thought to have a chance were edged out.  Emma Stone from Poor Things was overtaken by Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon and Cillian Murphy from Oppenheimer won over The Holdover's Paul Giamatti.

Oppenheimer won the Best Performance by a Cast award setting the stage for a Big Night for the film on March 10th.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers from A.Frame.

Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers from USA Today.

Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers from The Awardist/Entertainment Weekly.

Da'Vine Joy Randolph for The holdovers from Vanity Fair.

Producer Mark Johnosn on The Holdovers from The Hollywood Reporter.

Emma Stone for Poor things from A.Frame.

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MTFB Oscar Update: The Middle Eight / Daddio Has a Trailer / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: THE MIDDLE EIGHT

 BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) The Zone of Interest/United Kingdom (1)

2) Society of the Snow/Spain (2)

3) The Teachers' Lounge/Germany (3)

4) Perfect Days/Japan (4)

5) Io Capitano/Italy (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) 20 Days in Mariupol (1)

2) Bobi Wine: The People's President (2)

3) Four Daughters (3)

4) The Eternal Memory (4)

5) To Kill a Tiger (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse (1)

2) The Boy and the Heron (2)

3) Elemental (3)

4) Nimona (4)

5) Robot Dreams (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) What Was I Made For?/Barbie (1)

2) I'm Just Ken/Barbie (2)

3) It Never Went Away/American Symphony (3)

4) Whazhazhe/Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

5) The Fire Inside/Flamin' Hot (5)

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)

3) Poor Things (3)

4) American Fiction (4)

5) Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (5)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Poor Things (3)

3) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)

4) Maestro (4)

5) El Conde (5)

EDITING

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)

3) Anatomy of a Fall (3)

4) Poor Things (4)

5) The Holdovers (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Barbie (1)

2) Poor Things (2)

3) Oppenheimer (3)

4) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

5) Napoleon (5)

Comment: All eight of these categories remain virtually unchanged over the past couple of weeks.  Among them only one seems to be truly competitive and that's Production Design.  I wonder if Poor Things win at the BAFTAs on Sunday will move it ahead of Barbie when I predict these categories again on March 4th.  

DADDIO HAS A TEASER

One of the more obscure films I saw at TFF #50 was Daddio starring Dakota Johnson and Sean Penn.  I quite enjoyed the well-acted two hander.  Now Sony Pictures Classics has dropped a teaser for the film.  Here that is from YouTube:

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Sandra Huller and Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall from Awards Radar.

Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things from AFrame.

Screenwriter Tony McNamara for Poor Things from Gold Derby.

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One Million!!!!! / MTFB Oscar Update: The Big Eight / BAFTA and TFF / Interviews and Profiles

ONE MILLION!!!!!

Over the just-ended weekend MTFB recorded its one-millionth view.  1,000,000.  That's insane for a little blog that is the "nicheiest" of niche blogs.  I'll likely have a little more to say about the milestone in Thursday's post. 

One Million...wow!

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: THE BIG EIGHT

We're down to less than three weeks before they open the envelopes on March 10th.  Here's is my latest update on the predicted winners in the "Big Eight" of the 23 Oscar categories. Today's listing also includes a film/performers previous MTFB rank to the right in parentheses.  TFF films are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Poor Things (3)

3) The Holdovers (2)

4) Killers of the Flower Moon (6)

5) Barbie (5)

6) Anatomy of a Fall (7)

7) American Fiction (4)

8) The Zone of Interest (8)

9) Maestro (9)

10) Past Lives (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Christopher Nolan/Oppenheimer (1)

2) Yorgos Lanthimos/Poor Things (2)

3) Martin Scorsese/Killers of the Flower Moon (3)

4) Jonathan Glazer/The Zone of Interest (5)

5) Justine Triet/Anatomy of a Fall (4)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon (1)

2) Emma Stone/Poor Things (2)

3) Sandra Huller/Anatomy of a Fall (3)

4) Annette Bening/Nyad (4)

5) Carey Mulligan/Maestro (5)

BEST ACTOR

1) Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers (1)

2) Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer (2)

3) Bradley Cooper/Maestro (3)

4) Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction (4)

5) Colman Domingo/Rustin (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Da'Vine Joy Randolph/The Holdovers (1)

2) Emily Blunt/Oppenheimer (2)

3) Danielle Brooks/The Color Purple 95)

4) America Ferrera/Barbie (4)

5) Jodie Foster/Nyad (3)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Robert Downey, Jr./Oppenheimer (1)

2) Ryan Gosling/Barbie (2)

3) Mark Ruffalo/Poor Things (4)

4) Robert DeNiro/Killers of the Flower Moon (3)

5) Sterling K. Brown/American Fiction (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Oppenheimer (3)

2) Barbie (1)

3) American Fiction (2)

4) Poor Things (4)

5) The Zone of Interest (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anatomy of a Fall (1)

2) The Holdovers (2)

3) Past Lives (3)

4) Maestro (4)

5) May December (5)

COMMENTS:

With less than three weeks to go and final Oscar voting starting on Thursday, four of these categories feel all but locked: Picture (Oppy), Director (Nolan/Oppy), Supporting Acting (Randolph/The Holdovers and Downey, Jr./Oppy).

The lead acting categories are very tight.  Gladstone and Stone are neck and neck as far as I can tell.  Giamatti and Murphy are also close. Adapted Screenplay appears to be a three horse race between Oppenheimer/Barbie/American Fiction.  Original Screenplay is also close, though Anatomy of a Fall seems to have the edge at the moment.  It will be interesting to see if the BAFTA (see below), SAG, PGA, Independent Spirit and WGA nomination results have moved the needle for any of these eight categories when we come back to them in the MTFB post on Feb. 29th.

If I'm 100% accurate TFF films will win three of these categories on Oscar night: Actress, Actor and Original Screenplay.

BAFTA AND TFF

Oppenheimer had a great British evening on Sunday as the film led all others with seven BAFTA  wins including Best Pic, Direction and Actor.

But films that played TFF also did well in the Brits' estimation with 11 total wins on the night.

Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things was the #2 winner in total with five BAFTAs: Best Actress, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.

Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest landed three BAFTAs: Best British Film, Best Film Not in the English Language and Sound.

And Alexander Payne's The Holdovers earned two BAFTAs for Best Supporting Actress and Best Casting.

Justine Triet's Anatomy of a Fall was the other TFF film with BAFTA success getting the award for Best Original Screenplay.

Both Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon missed winning any awards from BAFTA.

Here's a complete list of BAFTA winners from Entertainment Weekly.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers from Variety.

Da'Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers from Deadline.

Producer Mark Johnson for The Holdovers from Deadline.

Andrew Scott, Paul Mescal, Claire Foy and Andrew Haigh for All of Us Strangers from Pop Culture Confidential.

Directors Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin for Nyad from Awards Radar.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Winner Predictions for the Shorts / What the Experts Are Saying: Part Four / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNER PREDICTIONS FOR THE SHORTS

In today's post I'm concluding my first "educated" set of predictions for who/what will win on Oscar night, March 10th.  The focus for this post is initial projections for which films will win for Animated Short, Documentary Short and Live Action Short.  As always TFF films are in Bold.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) War Is Over: Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko.

2) Letter to a Pig

3) Ninety-Five Senses

4) Our Uniform

5) Pachyderme

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Last Repair Shop

2) The ABC's of Book Burning

3) Nai Nai and Wai Po

4) The Barber of Little Rock

5) Island in Between

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

2) The After

3) Red, White and Blue

4) Invincible

5) Knight of Fortune

Comment: Notoriously the three most difficult categories to predict.  TFF only has one film nominated in any of these three categories and that is The Last Repair Shop which I have predicted currently as the winner for Best Doc Short.

Now that I've gotten through all 23 categories I'll begin updating for the next two weeks.  The the ultimate final set of predictions will come down on Sunday morning, March 9th in a special MTFB post.

WHAT THE EXPERTS ARE SAYING

Today's double whammy of Oscar expertise comes from Matt Neglia at Next Best Picture and Mark Johnson of Good as Gold (housed at Awards Daily).

Here's what Neglia currently has predicted:

Oppenheimer (7): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Editing, Score and Sound.

Poor Things (4): Best Actress, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Production Design.

The Holdovers (2): Best Actor, Supporting Actress.

Single wins for:

Anatomy of a Fall: Best Original Screenplay.

American Fiction: Best Adapted Screenplay.

Barbie: Best Song (What Was I Made for?).

Napoleon: Best Visual Effects.

Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse: Best Animated Feature.

20 Days in Mariupol: Best Documentary Feature.

The Zone of Interest: Best International Feature.

The Last Repair Shop: Best Documentary Short.

War Is Over: Best Animated Short

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar: Best Live Action Short.

Neglia has five TFF films winning a total of nine Oscars.

Meanwhile, Mark Johnson predicts as follows:

Oppenheimer (8): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score and Sound.

Poor Things (2): Best Actress and Costumes.

The Holdovers (2): Best Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.

Barbie (2): Best Song (I'm Just Ken) and Production Design.

Maestro (2): Best Actor and Makeup/Hair.

Single wins for:

Napoleon: Best Visual Effects.

Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse: Best Animated Feature.

20 Days in Mariupol: Best Documentary Feature.

The Zone of Interest: Best International Feature.

The Last Repair Shop: Best Documentary Short.

War Is Over: Best Animated Short

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar: Best Live Action Short.

Johnson has four TFF winning a total of six Oscars.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers from CBS News Sunday Morning.

Writer David Hemingson for The Holdovers from Screen Daily.

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Nolan Wins DGA / MTFB Oscar Update: Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Visual Effects and Sound / What the Experts Are Saying: Part Three/ Trailers and Clips: La Chimera and Perfect Days / Interviews and Profiles

NOTE: Christopher Nolan won the Directors Guild award for Best Direction of a feature film Saturday night

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: FIRST WINNERS PREDICTIONS FOR MAKEUP/HAIR, COSTUMES, VISUAL EFFECTS AND SOUND

 

In this post I'm continuing my first "educated" set of predictions for who/what will win on Oscar night, March 10th.  The focus for this post is initial projections for which films will win for Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Visual Effects and Sound.  As always TFF films are in Bold.

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Maestro

2) Poor Things

3) Oppenheimer

4) Golda

5) Society of the Snow

COSTUMES

1) Barbie

2) Poor Things

3) Killers of the Flower Moon

4) Oppenheimer

5) Napoleon

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Creator

2) Godzilla Minus One

3) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

4) Napoleon

5) Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning

SOUND

1) Oppenheimer

2) The Zone of Interest

3) Maestro

4) The Creator

5) Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning

Comment: Oppenheimer is massively favored for the Sound Oscar.  each of the other three categories are competitive at some level.  For Makeup/Hair Maestro is in solid shape but Poor Things shouldn't be counted out just yet.  Costume Design is a very competitive race between Barbie and Poor Things and though I have The Creator at the top of the Visual Effects category, at the moment any of the top four seem to have a shot at the trophy on March 10th.

TFF films are currently not predicted to win in any of these four categories.

Thursday, a look at the Shorts categories.

WHAT THE EXPERTS ARE SAYING: PART THREE

I've decided for each post between now and the Oscars to share where some of the top Oscarologists are in terms of predicting the 23 category winners. Today I'm sharing the publicly posted current predictions from Sasha Stone of Awards Daily and Anne Thompson of Indiewire (via her posted predictions at Gold Derby).  As with my own predictions above, TFF films are in Bold.

Here's how Sasha has the winners predicted: 

Oppenheimer (7): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Editing, Score and Sound.

Barbie (4): Best Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Costumes and Song (I'm Just Ken).

The Holdovers (3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.

Films with single Oscar wins:

Killers of the Flower Moon: Best Actress.

The Zone of Interest: Best International Feature.

20 Days in Mariupol: Best Documentary.

Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse: Best Animated Feature.

Maestro: Best Makeup/Hair.

The Creator: Best Visual Effects.

The Last Repair Shop: Best Documentary Short.

War Is Over: Best Animated Short.

The After: Best Live Action Short.

Stone has three TFF films winning a total of five Oscars.  Stone also has 11 time nominee Poor Things going home empty-handed on Oscar night.

Meanwhile, Indiewire's Anne Thompson has it this way:

Oppenheimer (8): Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Editing, Score and Sound.

Barbie (3): Adapted Screenplay, Production Design and Song (What Was I Made For?)

Poor Things (2): Best Actress and Costumes.

Films with single Oscar wins:

The Holdovers: Best Supporting Actress.

Anatomy of a Fall: Best Original Screenplay.

Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse: Best Animated Feature.

The Eternal Memory: Best Documentary.

The Zone of Interest: Best International Feature.

Godzilla Minus One: Best Visual Effects.

Maestro: Best Makeup/Hair

Letter to a Pig: Best Animated Short.

The ABCs of Book Burning: Best Documentary Short.

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar: Best Live Action Short.

Thompson has four TFF films picking up a total of five trophies.

TRAILERS AND CLIPS

U.S. Trailer for La Chimaera from NEON and YouTube:

Clip from Wim Wenders' Oscar nominated Perfect Days:

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Sound Designer Johnny Burn for The Zone of Interest from the Pop Culture Confidential Podcast.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Score, Cinematography, Editing and Production Design / What the Experts Are Saying: Part Two / The London Film Critics Circle and TFF / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS FOR SCORE, CINEMATOGRAPHY, EDITING AND PRODUCTION DESIGN

In this post I'm continuing my first "educated" set of predictions for who/what will win on Oscar night, March 10th.  The focus for this post is initial projections for which films will win for Score, Cinematography, Editing and Production Design..  As always TFF films are in Bold.

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Oppenheimer

2) Killers of the Flower Moon

3) Poor Things

4) American Fiction

5) Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Oppenheimer

2) Killers of the Flower Moon

3) Poor Things

4) Maestro

5) El Conde

EDITING

1) Oppenheimer

2) Killers of the Flower Moon

3) Anatomy of a Fall

4) Poor Things

5) The Holdovers

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Barbie

2) Poor Things

3) Oppenheimer

4) Killers of the Flower Moon

5) Napoleon

Comment: I'm currently predicting that Oppenheimer wins three of the four categories from today's list with Barbie picking up the fourth category.  TFF films' best chances are with Poor Things in Production Design.

Next Monday...winner predictions for Visual effects, Sound, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

WHAT THE EXPERTS ARE SAYING: PART TWO

I've decided for each post between now and the Oscars to share where some of the top Oscarologists are in terms of predicting the 23 category winners. Today I'm sharing the publicly posted current predictions from Erik Anderson of Awards Watch and Joey Magidson of Awards Radar.  as with my predictions above, TFF films are in Bold.

From Erik Anderson/Awards Watch:

Oppenheimer (7): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Editing, Score and Sound.

Barbie (4): Best Adapted Screenplay, Costume, Production Design and Song (What Was I Made For?).

The Holdovers (2): Best Actor and Supporting Actress.

Films with single Oscar wins:

Killers of the Flower Moon: Best Actress.

Anatomy of a Fall: Best Original Screenplay.

The Zone of Interest: Best International Feature.

Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse: Best Animated Feature

20 Days in Mariupol; Best Documentary Feature.

Maestro: Best Makeup/Hair

The Creator: Best Visual Effects.

War Is Over: Best Animated Short

Nai Nai and Wai Po: Best Documentary Short.

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar: Best Live Action Short.

Three TFF films will win a total of four Oscars should Anderson be 100% accurate.

And from Joey Magidson of Awards Radar:

Oppenheimer (7): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Editing, Score and Sound.

Barbie (3): Best Adapted Screenplay, Costumes and Song (What Was I Made For?).

The Holdovers (2): Best Actor and Supporting Actress

Poor Things (2): Production Design and Makeup/Hair.

Films with single Oscar wins:

Killers of the Flower Moon: Best Actress.

Anatomy of a Fall: Best Original Screenplay.

The Zone of Interest: Best International Feature.

Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse: Best Animated Feature.

20 Days in Mariupol: Best Documentary Feature.

The Creator: Best Visual Effects.

War Is Over: Best Animated Short.

The Last Repair Shop: Best Documentary Short.

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar: Best Live Action Short.

If Magidson is spot on then five TFF films win a total of seven Oscars.

THE LONDON FILM CRITICS CIRCLE AND TFF

The London Film Critics Circle announced their winners for cinema achievement last weekend.  In total, five TFF films/performers earned nine LFCC honors lead by The Zone of Interest with three.  Here's the rundown:

The Zone of Interest (3): Film of the Year, Director of the Year and the LFCC Technical Achievement Award.

All of Us Strangers (3): Actor of the Year (Scott), British/Irish Film of the Year and British/Irish Performer of the Year (Mescal).

Anatomy of a Fall (1): Screenwriters of the Year.

Poor Things (1): Actress of the Year.

The Holdovers (1): Supporting Actress of the Year.

In addition, the LFCC recognized Rustin's Colman Domingo with the Derek Malcolm Award for Innovation.

The complete set of winners was reported by Next Best Picture. That is linked here.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Behind the Scenes of  the Production Design for Poor Things from Indiewire.

Director Tran Anh Hung for The Taste of Things from the Film at Lincoln Center Podcast.

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