MTFB Oscar Update: Next to Last Predix for Oscar's Middle Six / Visitations: Jesse Buckley, Ethan Hawke and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: NEXT TO LAST PREDIX FOR OSCARS MIDDLE SIX

The latest predictions from MTFB for Casting, International Feature, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Original Score and Original Song.

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (4)

4) Marty Supreme (3)

5) The Secret Agent (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value (1)

2) The Secret Agent (2)

3) It Was Just an Accident (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) The Voice of Hund Rajab (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) Zootopia 2 (2)

3) Arco (4)

4) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (3)

5) Elio (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)

2) Mr. Nobody Against Putin (5)

3) The Alabama Solution (2)

4) Come See Me in the Good Light (3)

5) Cutting Through Rocks (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Bugonia (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) I Lied to You/Sinners (2)

3) Train Dreams/Train Dreams (4)

4) Dear Me/Dianne Warren: Relentless (3)

5) Sweet Dreams of Joy/Viva Vivaldi (5)

This and That: Huge movement for Mr. Nobody Against Putin.  Small adjustments in casting, Animated Feature and Original Song.

VISITATIONS

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value from Next Best Picture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fwxuEWxSpI

Jesse Buckley for Hamnet from Variety.

https://variety.com/2025/film/awards/jessie-buckley-why-hamnet-isnt-grief-porn-1236564879/

Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon from Variety.

https://variety.com/2025/film/awards/ethan-hawke-blue-moon-linklater-before-movie-1236551849/

Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value from Next Best Picture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQpi055nXVQ

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MTFB Oscar Take: Updates to Above the Line Categories / Online Film Critics Nominees / Visitations: Hamnet

 UPDATES TO ABOVE THE LINE CATEGORIES

Here's the latest take on the eight "Above the Line " categories for Oscar nominations that are being announced one week from today.  TFF #52 films are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (3)

3) Sinners (2)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Frankenstein (6)

6) Sentimental Value (5)

7) It Was Just an Accident (7)

8) Train Dreams (8)

9) The Secret Agent (NR)

10) Bugonia (10)

Others: Wicked: for Good, F1 and Weapons.

 

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

3) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

4) Guillermo Del Toro/Frankenstein (NR)

5) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Jafar Panhani/It Was Just an Accident, Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme and Kleber Mendanca Filho/The Secret Agent.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (3)

3) Renee Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

5) Chase Infiniti/OBAA (5)

Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue , Amanda Seyfreid/The Testament of Ann Lee and Cynthia Erivo/Wicked: For Good.

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (5)

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (4)

Others: Joel Edgerton/Train Dreams, Jesse Plemons/Bugonia and George Clooney/Jay Kelly

SUPPRORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)

3) Ariana Grande/Wicked" For Good (3)

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Wunmi Mosaku/Sinners, Regina Hall/One Battle After Another and Odessa A'Zion/Marty Supreme.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (5)

4) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (3)

5) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (4)

Others: Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly, Miles Caton/Sinners and DelRoy Lindo/Sinners.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Marty Supreme (3)

3) Sentimental Value (2)

4) It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Weapon (NR)

Others: Sorry, Baby, Jay Kelly and The Secret Agent.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Frankenstein (5)

5) Bugonia (4)

Others: No Other Choice, Wakeup Dead Man and Nuremburg.

I'll have predictions on Monday for the Shorts categories as well as a look at the closest races.  Then on Wednesday MTFB will have a special post with final predictions in all 24 categories.

ONLINE FILM CRITICS NOMINATIONS

The Online Film Critics association announced their nominees for film excellence for 2025 on Monday.  Here's what happened with films that screened at TFF:

Sentimental Value (8): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Illeaas), Supporting Actress (Fanning), Original Screenplay and Film Not in the English Language.

Hamnet (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design and Costume.

Frankenstein (7): Best Supporting Actor (Elordi), Cinematography, Score, Production Design, Costume, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.

It Was Just an accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay and Film Not in the English Language.

The Secret Agent (3): Best Picture, Actor (Moura and Film Not in the English Language.

Bugonia (2): Best Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke)

If I had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Cover-Up: Best Documentary.

The complete list of the OFCS nominees can be found here at their website.

 

VISITATIONS: HAMNET

Paul Mescal from Variety. 

Paul Mescal from Awards Watch.

Jesse Buckley from People.

Paul Mescal and Chloe Zhao from IndieWire.

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MTFB Oscar Update: First Predix for Four Categories / Cover-Up Trailer / Visitations: Buckley, Mescal, White and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: FIRST PREDIX FOR FOUR CATEGORIES

Today we add four more categories with initial predictions for Cinematography, Editing, Score and Song.  All TFF #52 films are in Bold.    Here they are:

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Hamnet

2) One Battle after Another

3) Sinners

4) Frankenstein

5) Train Dreams

Others: F1, One Battle After Another and Wicked: For Good.

BEST EDITING

1) One Battle After Another

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) F1

5) Marty Supreme

Others: Sentimental Value, Avatar: Fire and Ash and The House of Dynamite.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners

2) One Battle After Another

3) Hamnet

4) Frankenstein

5) Marty Supreme

Others: Jay Kelly, Bugonia and Hedda.

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K Pop Demon Hunters

2) I Lied to You/Sinners

3) Dear Me/Diane Warren: Relentless

4) The Girl in the Bubble/Wicked: For Good

5) Last Time (I Seen the Sun)/Sinners

Others: No Place Like Here/Wicked: For Good, Drive/F1 and Clothed by the Sun/The Last Testament of Ann Lee.

TRAILER: COVER-UP

From YouTube:

VISITATIONS: BUCKLEY, MESCAL, WHITE AND MORE

Jesse Buckley and Paul Mescal for Hamnet from Letterboxd via YouTube.

Writer Maggie O'Farrell for Hamnet from Awards Watch.

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value from Pop Culture Confidential.

Director Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value from Pop Culture Confidential.

Jeremy Allen White for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere for The Hollywood Reporter's Awards Chatter.

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Oscar Predictions Round Two: Best Picture and Direction / Visitations: Del Toro, Isaacs, Stone, Plemons

OSCAR PREDICTIONS ROUND TWO: BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION

Two weeks ago MTFB began Oscar predictions for 2026 with, of course, an emphasis on TFF #52 contenders.  Today we go back and update the predictions for Best Picture and Direction.  These predictions will include the films current ranking as well as its position from two weeks back.  TFF #52 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Wicked: For Good (9)

7) It Was Just an Accident (8)

8) Jay Kelly (6)

9) Frankenstein (NR)

10) Bugonia (NR)

Others: Train Dreams, Avatar: Fire and Ice, The Secret Agent and A House of Dynamite.

Comment: Big moves up for Wicked: For Good, Frankenstein and Bugonia. Dropping for Jay Kelly and A House of Dynamite.  

Should this list be the actual set of  nominees, TFF would break its record of four BP nominees in a single year with six.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.

VISITATIONS: DEL TORO, ISAAC, STONE, PLEMONS

Guillermo Del Toro and Oscar Isaac for Frankenstein from GQ and YouTube.

Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons, Yorgos Lanthimos and More for Bugonia from Nest Best Picture.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Oscar Winners Predictions: Screenplays and More / BAFTA and TFF #51 / Writers' Guild and TFF #51

 MTFB OSCAR WINNERS PREDICTIONS: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

We're under two weeks to Oscar night.  Today I am updating predictions for both screenplay categories as well as International , Animated and Documentary features.  These categories were first predicted two weeks back on Feb. 3rd.  As always, TFF films are Bold.  A film's previous ranking is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)

2) A Complete Unknown (2)

3) Nickel Boys (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Sing Sing (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora (1)

2) The Substance (3)

3) A Real Pain (4)

4) The Brutalist (2)

5) September 5 (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) I'm Still Here (1)

2) Emilia Perez (3)

3) The Seed of the Sacred Fig (2)

4) Flow  (4)

5) The Girl with the Needle (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot (1)

2) Flow (2)

3) Inside Out 2 (3)

4) Memoir of a Snail (5)

5) Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (4)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) No Other Land (1)

2) Porcelain War (4)

3) Black Box Diaries (3)

4) Sugarcane (2)

5) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (5)

Comments:  Despite the backlash, Emilia Perez still looks like it has a real shot at the International Feature Oscar.  I still have it behind I'm Still Here but it feels close.  Additionally, Porcelain War has surged in the Documentary category.  The biggest lock from these categories seems to be Conclave in Adapted Screenplay.

Should these predictions prove out, TFF #51 films would win three of the five categories.

BAFTA AND TFF #51

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their winners on Sunday.  each with Conclave leading the way with four wins including Best Film. Four TFF #51 films landed a least two BAFTAs including Conclave with four wins including Best Film.

Here's the rundown of  TFF #51 films' BAFTA wins:

Conclave: Best Film, Best British Film, Adapted Screenplay and Editing.  

Anora: Best Actress (Madison) and Casting.

Emilia Perez: Best Film Not in the English Language and Best Supporting Actress (Saldana).

A Real Pain: Best Supporting Actor (Culkin) and Original Screenplay.

Among non-TFF films The Brutalist had four wins as well for Best Direction, Actor (Brody), Cinematography and Score.

The Conclave win for Best Film gives it a little life for Oscar night.  Wins for Saldana and Culkin cement their status for Supporting Oscars and all of the hubbub regarding Emilia Perez didn't seem to slow it down in London.

TFF #51 films were nominated for a total of  45 awards.

WRITERS' GUILD AND TFF #51

Two TFF #51 films picked up Writers' Guild of America awards on Saturday night.  Sean Baker won for Anora as Best Original Screenplay while RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes shared the trophy for Nickel Boys as Best Adapted Screenplay.

These results are likely indicative of an Anora Oscar win in two weeks.  The Nickel Boys win is likely less predictive as Conclave was ineligible under WGA rules.  Most of the Oscar prediction community thinks Conclave is the favorite.  Currently 29 out of the 34 Gold Derby experts are predicting Conclave to pick up the Oscar win.

Here is the complete list of winners from the WGA.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Winners Predicitons: Above the Line / Looking Forward to Cannes / Trailer for The Friend / Interviews and Profiles: The Seed of the Sacred Fig and Nickel Boys

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS PREDICTIONS: ABOVE THE LINE

The difference two weeks can make.  Since the last posting of theses six "Above the Line" categories, the Karla Sofia Gascon implosion has done major damage to the Oscar chances of Emilia Perez and the 1-2-3 blitz from last weekend of Anora winning Best Picture from the Critics' Choice as well as the Producers' Guild and the directing trophy from the Directors' Guild has re-shaped the Oscar map.  Here's where we are as of this morning.  As always TTFF films are Bold and a film/performer's position from the last set of predictions is indicated in parentheses to the right.

BEST PICTURE

1) Anora (4)

2) Conclave (3)

3) A Complete Unknown (5)

4) The Brutalist (2)

5) Wicked (6)

6) Emilia Perez (1)

7) The Substance (7)

8) I'm Still Here (10)

9) Dune Part Two (9)

10) Nickel Boys (8)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Sean Baker/Anora (3)

2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (1)

3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (4)

4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (5)

5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (2)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)

2) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (3)

3) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)

4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (5)

5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (4)

BEST ACTOR

1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (2)

2) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (1)

3) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave (3)

4) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing (4)

5) Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez (1)

2) Ariana Grande/Wicked (2)

3) Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown (4)

4) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave (3)

5) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain (1)

2) Edward Norton/A Complete Unknown (2)

3) Yura Borisov/Anora (4)

4) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist (3)

5) Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice (5)

Comment: As of today's post, MTFB is predicting TFF #51 films to win of these six categories: Picture, Direction and both Supporting Acting awards.

Anora's ascendance is clear as is the Emilia Perez debacle.  I was actually surprised that Emilia Perez only dropped to #6 in Best Picture and the Zoe Saldana remains viable for a Best Supporting Actress film for the film.

Oscar voting is open and we wait to hear from the BAFTAs on Sunday.

LOOKING FORWARD TO CANNES

Jordan Ruimy of World of Reel has his annual speculation list up and running for films that might be selected for Cannes.  As I always like to do at this time of year, I checked it put to see what titles jumped out as possible considerations for TFF #52.  From his lengthy list, here are some films that could screen at Cannes and then make the trip to southwestern Colorado (the order is as they appear in Ruimy's piece):

Die, My Love (Ramsay)

The Mastermind/Reichardt

The Way of the Wind (Malick)

Young Mother (Dardennes)

Orphan (Nemes)

The Love That Remains (Palmason)

The Magnificent Life of Sylvain Pagnol (Chomet)

Bugonia (Lanthimos)

In the Hands of Dante (Schnabel)

Ruimy's complete list is here.

TRAILER FOR THE FRIEND

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Behind the Scenes of The Seed of the Sacred Fig.

RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys from The Hollywood Reporter.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Predicting Oscar Winners: Cinematography and More / Future TFF Selection? / Interviews and Profiles: Conclave

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PREDICTING OSCAR WINNERS: CINEMATOGRAPHY AND MORE

As the Emilia Perez series of provocations and scandals seems to be winding down in intensity, we're starting to see some actual effects regarding what could happen on Oscar night.  Here are the first predictions for winners in Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score and Song.  As usual, TFF films are in Bold.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Brutalist

2) Dune: Part Two

3) Nosferatu

4) Maria

5) Emilia Perez

BEST EDITING

1) Conclave

2) Anora

3) The Brutalist

4) Emilia Perez

5) Wicked

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Wicked

2) The Brutalist

3) Dune: Part Two

4) Conclave

5) Nosferatu

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Brutalist

2) Conclave

3) The Wild Robot

4) Emilia Perez

5) Wicked

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) El Mal/Emilia Perez

2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight

3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez

4) Like A Bird/Sing Sing

5) Never Too Late/Never Too Late

Comments:  Tightest category among these five is Editing where Conclave is barely in front of Anora and The Brutalist is close too.  If Conclave wins this and Adapted Screenplay...well...could be a good night in the end for Conclave.

The Emilia Perez blowback does not seem to have been particularly bad in Best Song.  We'll see if that's still true two weeks from now when we re-visit these five categories.  Diane Warren's shot to finally win an Oscar for songwriting has a real possibility of happening.

Speaking of low blowback for Emilia Perez in Best Song, you have to wonder if Zoe Saldana might still have a chance for Best Supporting Actress.  We'll look at that category again next week.

FUTURE TFF SELECTION?

Of note yesterday was news from both Deadline and The Film Stage that TFF regular and member of TFF's Council of Advisors Werner Herzog will be soon filming a new feature film.  That by itself would be enough to merit it going on a future TFF watch list.  But the reporting revealed that the film will star Rooney Mara and Kate Mara.

Rooney is past TFF tribute recipient.  She was honored in 2015.  Todd Haynes Carol screened at TFF as a part of that tribute.  I have been told that Rooney loves the fest and has returned since the 2015 honor.

She attended in 2016 with Una and again in  2022 with Women Talking.

The new film is reportedly titled Bucking Fastard and is described by The Film Stage as: 

"...based on the true story of inseparable twin sisters Joan and Jean, drawing from the lives of Freda and Greta Chaplin, who became sexually infatuated with their next-door neighbor and eventually received a restraining order. The title of the film, which begins production this spring in Ireland and Slovenia, is based on a simultaneous verbal slip the twins made in court."

The Film Stage article (Linked above) also digs into Herzog's most recent book, Every Man for Himself and God Against All: A Memoir, and provides considerable detail about the two sisters.

INETRVIEWS AND PROFILES

Conclave producers Ross and Howell for the film from Variety.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Predicting Oscar Winners: Screenplays and More / The Emilia Perez Saga / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PREDICTING OSCAR WINNERS: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

MTFB continues today with trying to predict the Oscar winners for 2025.    Five more categories are added today.  As always TFF films are in Bold.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave

2) A Complete Unknown

3) Nickel Boys

4) Emilia Perez

5) Sing Sing

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora

2) The Brutalist

3) The Substance

4) A Real Pain

5) September 5

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) I'm Still Here

2) The Seed of the Sacred fig

3) Emilia Perez

4) Flow

5) The Girl with the Needle

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot

2) Flow

3) Inside Out 2

4) Wallace and Gromet: Vengeance Most Fowl

5) Memoir of a Snail

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) No Other Land

2) Sugarcane

3) Black Box Diaries

4) Porcelain War

5) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

THE EMILIA PEREZ SAGA

Hoo boy...Emilia Perez  13 Oscar nominations...most of any film this year.  Tied for second most all time.  And after this last week...likely not going to win a single one.  Initially signaling trouble was big time negative reactions from a number of communities reflected in the film as well as criticism that the film, set in Mexico, had almost no input or participation from Mexican natives/

Then came the reveal of a number of posts from the movie's lead Karla Sofia Gascon...that were incendiary to say the least.

Last Thursday I had it nominally winning Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress.  Now, based on nominations and such, had this past week not happened, it could have also won: International Feature and Original Song as well.  Now, I suspect, the film is fried.  13 nominations and no wins anywhere.

Emilia Perez was always going to be a hard sell for Best Picture but in an year that has been fractured in terms of  Oscar predicting, the film with 13 nominations seemed like the best bet.  Now???It's the Wild West in Oscarland.

In the Best Picture race, Emilia Perez's woes benefit Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave and A Complete Unknown.  I won't predict the Best Picture again officially until Feb. 13th.  That said, I feel that Conclave and  A Complete Unknown have the best chance to gain from what's been going on.

In Emilia's other three categories that it could have won...

Best Supporting Actress: If there is one category that might survive the blowback, this is it.  Zoe Saldana has been so far out front for so long maybe she escapes with the trophy.  Otherwise, congrats Ariana Grande.

Best International Film: Congrats to  I'm Still Here.  We already had figured out that The Academy likes this film a lot with it also being nominated for Best Picture and Best Actress (where Fernanda Torres could actually win).

Best Song:  Does Diane Warren actually win on her 16th nomination?  Maybe so.  Assuming both El Mal and Mi Camino are sunk you're left with her song from The Six Triple Eight, Elton John's tune and the song from Sing Sing.

Ultimately, as this space is about Telluride films, this mess likely decreases TFF film's overall success on Oscar night.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys from Pop Culture Confidential.

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Post Oscar Nominations Musings / I Had a Pretty Good Day / Satellite Awards and TFF / Correction

POST OSCAR NOMINATION MUSINGS

Now comes the time when our focus shifts from Oscar nominations to Oscar wins.  The Academy Awards ceremony is set for March 2nd.

I'll begin tracking the various categories over the next five weeks as I try to predict what films will win what categories.  What's fun is that there doesn't seem to be a frontrunner for Best Picture.  You could make a case for several of the ten films winning the Big Prize.  Emilia Perez with the most nominations, 13 in all, the most ever for an International film and just one nomination short of the all time record.  But not every film with 13-14 nominations wins Best Picture...Just ask the producers of La La Land.

Also making strong cases as candidates to win: The Brutalist, Conclave, Anora and A Complete Unknown.  Wicked still has a shot.  

My gut says that A Complete Unknown and Conclave have momentum right now.  I'll have the first set of "winner" predictions on Thursday.

We'll also get some insight as the various Guilds weigh in with their winners.  The directors and the Producers Guilds start the parade on Feb. 8th.

I HAD A PRETTY GOOD DAY 

Those that have been reading this space for some time and especially during this chunk of the year when MTFB focuses on the Oscar season probably have a good sense of the level of prediction success has been.  For those who don't, here are the prediction success rates for the past few years:

2024: 91 of 120-75.8%

2023: 93 of 120-77.5%

2022: 87 of 120-72.5%

2021: 87 of 118-73.7%

2020: 100 of 124-80.6%

2019: 95 of 122-77.9%

Overall during this period   of 724 for correct prediction rate of 76.4%.  This year I was a bit ahead of that with 97 correct predictions out of 120.  The correct rate?  80.8%. That raises the overall rate to 77%.

Additionally, in nine categories the film I had in the first alternate spot was nominated.

Categories where I got all the nominees: Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Animated Feature, Production Design and Makeup/Hair

My worst non-short category was Original Song where I got only three of the five.

In all but one category I had all the all of the nominees predicted as nominees or alternates.  The one category where that was not true was Best Picture where I didn't have I'm Still Here within a mile of being nominated.  I really thought that if the Academy chose a second International film (in addition to Emilia Perez) it would have been All That We Imagine as Light or The Seed of the Sacred Fig.  

Finally, as I am being immodest concerning my predix this year, had I been a Gold Derby Expert or Editor...I would have topped them all for accuracy.  Here's where they ended up:

Gold Derby Experts:

Gold Derby Editors:

I'll be waiting for my invitation to join Gold Derby's panel for next year.

SATELLITE AWARDS AND TFF

The International Press Academy's Satellite Awards winners were announced Saturday Night.  TFF films landed five wins:

Anora: Best Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)

A Real Pain: Original Screenplay

Nickel Boys: Adapted Screenplay

Emilia Perez: Original Score, Original Song (Mi Camino)

The Brutalist was named Best Picture (Drama).

The complete list of winners and nominees can be found here.

CORRECTION

I had a note from an anonymous reader last week that TFF #50 also had an Oscar nomination for Best Documentary Short. Incident did indeed screen at TFF #50.

That brings the totals for TFF films for this year's Academy Awards to 14 films with 41 nominations.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Supporting Acting and More / Golden Globe Nominations and TFF / Critics and Awards Groups from This Past Weekend / The Playlist 100 Most Anticipated for 2025 / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SUPPORTING ACTING AND MORE

I'm updating the Supporting Acting categories today and adding three other categories going forward.  The categories I am adding today are: Original Score, Original Song And Sound. The acting categories were last updated on Nov. 25th.  An actor's previous position is indicated in (parentheses).  TFF #51 films are in Bold. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez (1)

2) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave (2)

3) Danielle Deadwyler/The Piano Lesson (3)

4) Ariana Grande/Wicked (4)

5) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist (5)

Others: Selena Gomez/Emilia Perez, Saoirse Ronan/Blitz and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor/Nickel Boys.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain (1)

2) Denzel Washington/Gladiator II (2)

3) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist (3)

4) Clarence Maclin/Sing Sing (4)

5) Yura Borisov/Anora (-)

Others: Edward Norton/A Complete Unknown, Stanley Tucci/Conclave. Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice and John Magaro/September 5.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Conclave

2) The Brutalist

3) Emilia Perez

4) The Wild Robot

5) The Room Next Door

Others: Blitz, Challengers and Saturday Night.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez

2) El Mal/Emilia Perez

3) Kiss the Sky/The Wild Robot

4) Piece by Piece/Piece by Piece

5) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight

Others: Winter Coat/Blitz, Beyond/Moana 2 and Harper and Will Go West/Will & Harper.

BEST SOUND

1) Dune Part Two

2) Wicked

3) Gladiator II

4) A Complete Unknown

5) Emilia Perez

Others: Blitz, Maria and The Brutalist.

GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS AND TFF

Here are the TFF films That were nominated for Golden Globes this morning:

Twelve TFF Films earned 35 Golden Globe nominations early theis morning.  Emilia Perez led all films with 10 nominations.  Here are the results from the announcement:

Emilia Perez (10): Best Picture (Musical or Comedy), Film Not in the English Language, Direction, Actress (Musical or Comedy-Gascon), Supporting Actress (Saldana and Gomez), Screenplay, Song (El Mal and Mi Camino) and Score.

Conclave (6): Best Picture (Drama), Direction, Actor (Drama-Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Screenplay and Score.

Anora (5): Best Picture (Musical or Comedy), Direction, Actress (Musical or Comedy-Moore), Supporting Actor (Burisov), and Screenplay.

A Real Pain (4): Best Picture (Musical or Comedy), Actor (Musical or Comedy-Eisenberg), Supporting Actor (Culkin) and Screenplay.

All We Imagine as Light (2): Best Film Not in the English Language, Direction.

The Apprentice (2): Best Actor (Drama-Stan), Supporting Actor (Strong).

September 5 (1): Best Picture (Drama).

Nickel Boys (1): Best Picture (Drama).

Memoir of a Snail (1): Best Animated Film.

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (1): Best Film Not in the English Language.

Saturday Night (1): Best Actor (Musical or Comedy-LaBelle).

Maria (1): Best actress (Drama-Jolie).

The Golden Globes winners will be announced on January 5th, 2025.

The complete list of all Golden Globes nominees is linked here from Variety.

CRITICS AND AWARDS GROUPS FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND

***THE LOS ANGELES FILM CRITICS AND TFF

The Los Angeles Film Critics Association named their "Best Of" yesterday.  Here's how films that played at TFF fared:

Best Picture: Anora

Best Director: Mohammad Rasoulof/The Seed of the Sacred Fig.  Runner-up: Sean Baker/Anora

Lead Performance: Mikey Madison/Anora

Supporting Performance: Yura Borisov/Anora and Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain.

Screenplay: Jesse Eisenberg/A Real Pain.  Runner-up: Sean Baker/Anora

Cinematography: Nickel Boys.

Editing: Nickel Boys and September 5 (tied).

Best Film Not in the English Language: All We Imagine as Light.  Runner-up: The Seed of the Sacred Fig.

Best Documentary: No Other land.

A full list of the LAFCA results is linked here from their website.

***EUROPEAN FILM AWARDS AND TFF

Jacques Audiard's Emilia Perez dominated the European Film Awards which announced their recipients on Dec. 7th.

Emilai Perez won Best European Film, Direction for Audiard and Best Actress for Karla Sofia Gascon.  Audiard was also awarded Best Screenwriter.  Additionally the film won Best Editing.  The other TFF winner was No Other Land as Best European Documentary.

***BRITISH INDEPENDENT FILM AWARDS AND TFF

The British Independent Film Association announced its winners on Sunday evening.  TFF films winning are as follows:

Best Screenplay: Santosh.

Best Supporting Performance: Frank Rogowski/Bird.

Breakthrough Producer: Santosh.

Best Independent Foreign Film: Anora.

The complete list of all winners is linked here from the BIFA website.

THE PLAYLIST 100 MOST ANTICIPATED FOR 2025

Each year about this time The Playlist publishes a list of 100 films that they're most interested in for the following year.  The 2025 list was posted last week.  Also each year I spend some time culling the list for what feel like possible titles for TFF.  Normally I come up with a list of around 20 titles and on average 5-6 of those actually make it into The SHOW.  Last year was actually a low point for me as only four of the films I highlighted actually made it to Telluride: The End, Anora, Bird and Maria.  Nevertheless, here's my best shot at what might be in TFF #52 from this list of 100 films:

#85) Echo Valley

#73 The Actor (again)

#65) The Roses

#56) The Way of gthe Wind (again)

#52) The History of Sound

#50) Pressure

#47) Splitsville

#43) Deliver Me from Nowhere

#42) The Ballad of a Small Player

#37) Hamnet

#28) Anemone

#14) The Phoenician Scheme

#13) Untitled Noah Baunbach (Jay Kelly?)

#8) Frankenstein

#5) Untitled Alejandro Inarritu (Judy?)

#4) Bugonia

#2) Die My Love

Personally, I'm most excited for Anemone (Daniel Day Lewis unretires), Hamnet (Chole Zhao and Shakespeare) and Del Toro's Frankenstein.

The complete list of 100 films, plus some honorable mentions, is linked here.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Errol Morris for Separated from Gold Derby.

Michael Shannon for The End from Vanity Fair.

Mohammad Rasoulof for The Seed of the Sacred Fig from AP News.

Behind the Scenes: the Makking of The Seed of the Sacred Fig from NEON.

Dylan O'Brien (Dan Akroyd) for Saturday Night from Gold Derby.

Matt Wood (John Belushi) for Saturday Night from Awards Radar.

Mark Eydelshteyn for Anora from The Contending.

Director Josh Greenbaum for Will and Harper from Gold Derby.

Ali Abassi for The Apprentice from The Playlist.

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