Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
OSCAR PREDICTIONS ROUND TWO: BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION
Two weeks ago MTFB began Oscar predictions for 2026 with, of course, an emphasis on TFF #52 contenders. Today we go back and update the predictions for Best Picture and Direction. These predictions will include the films current ranking as well as its position from two weeks back. TFF #52 films are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) One Battle After Another (1)
2) Hamnet (2)
3) Sinners (3)
4) Sentimental Value (4)
5) Marty Supreme (5)
6) Wicked: For Good (9)
7) It Was Just an Accident (8)
8) Jay Kelly (6)
9) Frankenstein (NR)
10) Bugonia (NR)
Others: Train Dreams, Avatar: Fire and Ice, The Secret Agent and A House of Dynamite.
Comment: Big moves up for Wicked: For Good, Frankenstein and Bugonia. Dropping for Jay Kelly and A House of Dynamite.
Should this list be the actual set of nominees, TFF would break its record of four BP nominees in a single year with six.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)
2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)
3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)
4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)
5) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)
Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.
MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATING BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION
In today's post I am updating Oscar predictions for Best Picture and Best Direction which were last posted on Nov. 3rd. TFF #49 films are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) The Fabelmans (1)
2) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)
3) Women Talking (3)
4) Top Gun: Maverick (6)
5) Everything Everywhere All at Once (4)
6) TAR (5)
7) Elvis (10)
8) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (New)
9) Glass Onion (7)
10) Triangle of Sadness (11)
11) She Said (9)
12) Babylon (8)
Out: Empire of Light
Ought to think about: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Living and Armageddon Time
Comment: Wildly divergent responses to Damien Chazelle's Babylon from screenings this week in Los Angeles and New York have lead me to drop its prospects for a Best Picture nomination significantly. The film is under an embargo for full reviews but social media reaction was divisive to say the least.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (1)
2) Sarah Polley/Women Talking (2)
3) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)
4) Todd Field/TAR (4)
5) The Daniels/EEAAO (5)
6) Damien Chazelle/Babylon (6)
7) Rueben Ostlund/Triangle of Sadness (7)
TRAILERS AND TEASERS
Official Trailer for Empire of Light via YouTube:
Official trailer for If These Walls Could Sing from YouTube:
CRITICS CHOICE DOC AWARDS AND TFF #49
The Critics Choice Awards for Documentary film making were named last Sunday night and TFF #49 entrant Good Night Oppy dominated the evening.
Oppy won for Best Doc (Gold award), Direction, Best Science/Nature Doc, Score and Narration.
Navalny, which was not included in the TFF #49 program but reportedly did screen in Elk Park prior to the Fest's officially opening received the Bronze award for Doc Feature as well as Best Political Doc.
And Citizen Ashe which screened at TFF #48 was named Best Sports Doc.
MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATE: BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION
In today's post I am updating Oscar predictions for Best Picture and Best Direction which were last posted on Oct. 6th. TFF #49 films are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) The Fabelmans (1)
2) The Banshees of Inisherin (4)
3) Women Talking (2)
4) Everything Everywhere All at Once (5)
5) Top Gun: Maverick (6)
6) TAR (7)
7) Babylon (3)
8) Elvis (8)
9) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (9)
10) She Said (10)
11) The Woman King (11)empire of
12) Empire of Light (New)
Dropping out: Avatar: The Way of Water
Ought to think about: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and Armageddon Time
BEST DIRECTION
1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (1)
2) Sarah Polley/Women Talking (2)
3) Todd Field/TAR (3)
4) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin (6)
5) The Daniels/EEAAO (5)
6) Damien Chazelle/Babylon (4)
7) Sam Mendes/Empire of Light (New)
Dropping out: Gina Prince-Blythwood/The Woman King
CRITIC'S CHOICE DOC NOMS INCLUDE TFF
The Critic's Choice Association announced its nominees for excellence in Documentaries on Monday and Telluride films fared well. A dozen films between TFF #48 and TFF #49 earned 28 nominations. Ryan White's Good Night Oppy led all TFF docs with six nominations, one behind the overall leader in nominations: Fire of Love.
Oppy, which was very buzzy throughout the Labor Day weekend, was nominated for: best Documentary, Direction, Editing, Score, Narration and Best Science/Nature documentary.
Other TFF films nominated include:
Three Minutes: A Lengthening (TFF #48): Best First Doc, Editing, Narration, Best Archival Doc, Best Historical Doc
The Automat (TFF #48): Best Doc, Best First Doc, Score, Best Historical Doc
Cow (TFF #48): Best First Doc, Cinematography, Best Science/Nature Doc
The U.S. and the Holocaust (TFF #49): Best Historical Doc. Best Doc Series
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (TFF #49): Best Direction and Best Political Doc
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song (TFF #48): Best Music Doc
If These Walls Could Talk (TFF #49): Best Music Doc
Retrograde (TFF #49): Best Political Doc
Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams (TFF #49): Best Biographical Doc
Sr. (TFF #49): Best Biographical Doc
The Return of Tanya Tucker (TFF #49): Best Music Doc
The Match Factory dropped a new trailer for Lukas Dhont's Close on Monday. Belgium selected the film as its entry for the International Feature Oscar last month.
The description from IMDb:
"The intense friendship between two thirteen-year old boys Leo and Remi suddenly gets disrupted. Struggling to understand what has happened, Léo approaches Sophie, Rémi's mother. "Close" is a film about friendship and responsibility."
And here is the new trailer form YouTube:
MATT NEGLIA'S OSCAR PICKS AND TFF #49
I am continuing my series wherein I check the Oscar predictions of a number of experts and how they have situated films that played at TFF #49. Previously I have passed along predictions from Variety's Clayton Davis, The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg and Awards Watch's Erik Anderson and Entertainment Weekly's Dave Karger. Today I'm highlighting Matt Neglia who founded Next Best Picture.
Matt is currently predicting all Oscar categories except the Shorts. Here's what he has Telluride films being nominated for:
Women Talking (6): Best Picture, Supporting Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actress (Foy), Supporting Actor (Whishaw), Adapted Screenplay and Original Score.
TAR (3): Best Direction, Actress (Blanchett), Original Screenplay
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1): Best Documentary
Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Picture updated since I last posted this category on Sept. 17th. A film's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses. TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.
1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (3)
2) Nomadland (1)
3) Mank (2)
4) News of the World (6)
5) The Father (11)
6) One Night in Miami (13)
7) Da 5 Bloods (5)
8) Judas and the Black Messiah (-)
9) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (14)
10) Minari (15)
Others: On the Rocks, Ammonite, Tenet
NEW LOOKS AT AMMONITE
Francis Lee's Ammonite (a TFF #47 pick) has both a new trailer and a new poster as the film heads toward its announced release date of Nov. 13th. Here, from YouTube, is the latest trailer:
And here's a look at the latest poster for the film as well:
FIREBALL TRAILER AND POSTER
Here's a first trailer for Werner Herzog and Clive Oppenheimer's Fireball: Visitors from Darker Worlds:
And a poster too:
THE WAY I SEE IT
With its screening this past weekend on MSNBC, there was a good deal of news that was put forth about the documentary The Way I See It which focuses on the career of photographer Pete Souza who photographed both the Reagan and Obama White Houses.
The documentary originally screened last month in theaters.
I'm posting my latest take on the Best Original Screenplay race today. My last Original Screenplay predictions were posted on Oct. 3rd. Each film is followed by its position from the last prediction posting in parentheses. TFF #46 films are Bold.
1) Marriage Story (1)
2) Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (2) 3) Parasite (3)
4) The Farewell (4)
5) Bombshell (-)
Other possibles: Dolemite Is My Name, Knives Out, 1917
Notes: Bombshell explodes into the race (along with its possible shot at a Best Picture nomination). Dolemite is also gaining some momentum. The top two seem to be probable locks at this point and Parasite is edging closer to that status.
OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Here's the complete history of nominees and winners for the Best Original Screenplay category and the Telluride Film Festival:
1974- The Conversation
1983- El Norte
1987- Au Revoirs Les Enfants
1992- The Crying Game
1993- The Piano-WINNER, Three Colors: Blue
1994- Bullets Over Broadway
1996- Secrets and Lies
1997- The Sweet Hereafter
2001- Amelie
2002- Talk to Her
2003- Lost in Translation, The Barbarian Invasions
2006- Babel
2007- Juno
2008- Happy-Go-Lucky
2010- The King's Speech-WINNER, Another Year
2011-The Artist
2012- Amour
2013- Nebraska
2014- Birdman-WINNER, Foxcatcher
2015- Spotlight-WINNER
2016- Manchester by the Sea-WINNER, La La Land
2017- The Shape of Water, Lady Bird
2018- Roma, The Favourite
Overall 29 nominations and five wins.
NEW WAVES TRAILER
A24 dropped a new trailer for Trey Edward Shults' Waves starring Sterling K. Brown, Renee Elise Goldsberry, Taylor Russell and Lucas Hedges. Here that is from YouTube:
Waves will open on Nov. 15th.
FOCUS ON PARASITE
I have linked a number of stories/posts here about Bong Joon-Ho's Parasite which is currently being billed as the best reviewed film of the year. The film was certainly well regarded by Telluride attendees as it finished at the top of The Professionals and the Composite ratings. The People's Telluride had it a #2 behind The Two Popes.
DEADLINE TALKS TO DIRECTOR AND WRITER OF THE TWO POPES
As a part of their contender series Deadline.com was in London and spoke with The Two Popes director Fernando Meirelles and writer Anthony McCarten. Among the topics: the genesis if the film that focuses on Popes Francis and Benedict played by Jonathan Pryce and Anthony Hopkins respectively.
FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE: UPDATING BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTOR
With this year's Oscar season underway, I have decided to try a new approach to The Film Awards Clearinghouse. What I will attempt is a weekly update of the Best Picture race and added to that a rotation of the other 9 Oscar races (today it's Best Picture and Director) I'll be following until we get to the turn of the new year. At that point, I'll begin to expand to eventually include all 24 categories.
This week's BEST PICTURE and BEST DIRECTION race as determined by collating the predictions of :
Film Experience
Film Misery
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Sasha Stone/Awards daily
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Trailer for "Argo"
BEST PICTURE
1) Argo (last week's spot-1)
2) Silver Linings Playbook (2)
3) Les Miserables (6)***
4) The Master (4)
5) Lincoln (3)###
6) Beasts of the Southern Wild (5)
7) Life of Pi (8)
8) Amour (7)
9) Zero Dark Thirty (9)
10) Django Unchained (10)
11) Moonrise Kingdom (12)
12) Anna Karenina (15)***
13) Flight (13)
14) Promised Land (11)###
15) The Sessions (14)
*** = RED HOT
### = COOLING OFF
"Amour" director Michael Haneke
BEST DIRECTOR:
1) Ben Affleck (2)
2) Paul Thomas Anderson (1)
3) David O. Russell (3)
4) Tom Hooper (6)***
5 ) Steven Spielberg (4)
6) Ang Lee (7)
7) Michael Haneke (5)###
8) Behn Zeitlin (8)
9) Quentin Tarantino (9)
10) Kathryn Bigelow (10)
NEW ADDITION TO TFF HISTORY
I have taken a few moments to add the basic information from TFF #39 top the TFF history page you can find as a part of this blog. That entry is as follows:
2012- Tributes: Marion Cotillard, Mads Mikkelsen,
Roger Corman
Shows:
Argo, Amour, No, The Gatekeepers, Stories We Tell, Rust and Bone, The
Sapphires, Ginger and Rosa, At Any Price, Love, Marilyn, Midnight's Children,
Barbara, The Central Park Five, A Royal Affair, The Hunt, Frances Ha, The
Iceman, Hyde Park on Hudson, The Attack
Guests:
Laura Linney, Ben Affleck, Bill Murray, Dennis Quaid, Ramin Bahrani, Salman
Rushdie, Ken Burns, Wayne Blair, Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig, Gael Garcia
Bernal, Peter Sellars, Serge Bromberg, Ray Liotta, Mark Cousins, Roger Michell,
Ariel Vromen, Michael Winterbottom, Shirley Henderson, Leonard Maltin,
Alexander Payne
Click on the link above to look at a brief hsitory of the festival year by year.
SPC AT 20
Sony Pictures Classics is 20 years old and The Hollywood Reporter has a retrospective about the history of the film distributor/production company. It's interesting and reminds one of how much SPC and TFF have been intertwined the past two decades. Take a look:
I've been filing away articles for over a year now on films that I think sound like they might be a Telluride possibility for 2013 or even 2014 and I decided to inventory them this past week to get an idea of what had really caught my eye and what I've already begun to obsess over. I found that I had stashed some info on over 60 films. So over the next few weeks I'll be passing along the 10-12 or so films that have really sparked my interest/curiosity and that I think or hope (or both) may show up at The SHOW in the next couple of years.
Beginning with "Child of God" directed co-written and starring James Franco (who was in Telluride in 2009 with "127 Hours") and Tim Blake Nelson (who supported "American Violet" in 2008).
IMDb lists it as a 2013 release and Rabbit Bandini is listed as the lone production company. Rabbit Bandini had a presence at Telluride this year with "The Iceman".
"The Counselor" stars Michael Fassbender ("Hunger" 2008 and "A Dangerous Method" and "Shame" 2011) and Brad Pitt ("Babel" 2006 and "Benjamin Button" 2009). It's directed by Ridley Scott which may cut against its Telluride chances but is written by Cormac McCarthy which could be a lure. It's distributor is 20th Century Fix which distributed 2011's "The Descendants". It's currently scheduled for a Nov. 15, 2013 release.
SPECIAL TO THE FILM AWARDS
CLEARINGHOUSE: BEST PICTURE 16 DAYS OUT
The FAC takes a snapshot look at
individual categories using the predictive resources of:
Awards Daily (Sasha Stone)
Incontention.com (Kristopher Tapley
at HitFix)
The Hollywood Reporter (Scott
Feinberg)
Entertainment Weekly (Dave Karger)
Hollywood Elsewhere (Jeffrey Wells)
Thompson on Hollywood (Anne
Thompson)
Rope of Silicon (Brad Brevet)
Film Misery
Film Experience
Awards Circuit
BEST PICTURE LOOKS LIKE A FIVE
HORSE RACE AND HOW MANY BP NOMINATIONS WILL THERE BE, 7 OR 8?
A little more than two weeks away
from the Oscar nomination announcement and anticipation is building as we get
closer. Here’s how the Best Picture race
looks as of this morning (TFF #38 films Bold and Large):
1) The Artist
2) The Descendants
3) War Horse
4) Hugo
5) The Help
6) Moneyball
7) Midnight in Paris
8) The Tree of Life
9) The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
10) Bridesmaids
11) Extremely Loud and Incredibly
Close
12) The Ides of March
13) Drive
14) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
15) Harry Potter and the Deathly
Hallows Part 2
Others receiving votes: J. Edgar, A
Separation, Young Adult, Take Shelter, 50/50 and Shame.
Since my last big post of the Big
Eight categories, the top seven films have stayed in the same positions.
Films with some new heat are
“Bridesmaids”, which is REALLY HOT. Also
semi-warm…”Tinker Tailor” and “Harry Potter”.
There are a good number of the Oscar “brains” that now think that
“Bridesmaids” has a real shot at a Best Pic nomination…I’m dubious.
Films that have lost some steam:
“Extremely Loud”, “J. Edgar” and “My Week with Marilyn”. Though I have a suspicion that “War Horse”
may be losing some momentum as well, but that’s just an intuition.
I still think there will be 7 BP
nominees (instead of 8) and that “Paris” “Moneyball” and “Tree of Life” are
going to be battling for the 6 and 7 spots.
I would be really surprised if any of the Best Picture nominees come
from outside the 1 thru 8 spots on the above chart.
Monday’s Director’s Guild
announcement may give us some insight.
If Malick is nominated, Tree of Life (which also lost some steam, at
least anecdotally and intuitively) has a better shot to get in. Same for DGA nods for Miller and Allen. If Spielberg is NOT a DGA nom…”War Horse”
could be in some serious BP trouble.
I’ll take a look at where the
Diretor’s race is on Monday as a part of my regular semi-weekly post and prior to the DGA announcement. Have a good weekend everyone!
