Keep Those Ratings Coming / TFF Oscar Project Part One / Diego Maradona Trailer / Full Disclosure

Thursday...still exhausted...


KEEP THOSE RATINGS COMING

First of all a big thanks to all of you who have already sent me your ratings of the films that you saw in Telluride last weekend.  The numbers have been steadily coming in but we're still at about half the level of respondents that we had last year so, if you saw films and would like to contribute to the collective evaluation of the films that played TFF #46...the polls are still open and will be until next Tuesday evening at 9:00 EDT/5:00 PDT.

As a reminder, I include the collective rating for films that have received at least a level of 25% of the maximum possible of number of people that actually do participate which means that films that don't get rated by a sufficient number of respondents won't make it into the list.  My feeling is that the 25% threshold provides a large enough sample size to adequately compare ratings of film to film.

At this point it looks like some films already will have enough votes to make the list including:

The Aeronauts
The Climb
Ford v. Ferrari
Judy
Lyrebird
Marriage Story
Motherless Brooklyn
Parasite
The Report
The Two Popes
Uncut Gems
Waves

On the bubble:

A Hidden Life
Inside Bill's Brain
Pain and Glory

Other films may struggle to reach the necessary threshold to make the final list.

So keep those ratings coming in.  My plan is to publish The Peoples Telluride a week from today.

Meanwhile, the Professionals are about half way in.  When those ratings get published is a bit up in the air in as far as I'm waiting for a few of them to get their ratings into me.

As always, you can rate your films via any of the methods of contact listed at the bottom of this post.


TFF OSCAR PROJECT PART ONE

Not long ago I did a quick roundup of Oscar nominees in the eight main categories from Telluride films since 2005.  After that process, I started thinking that someone needed to do an entire history of Telluride films and the Oscar.

For the past three months or so, I have gone back to the beginning and researched all of the Oscar nominees and winners in the 21 feature categories that were screened at Telluride prior to their nominations.

As a result, beginning today and over the next month or so, I will be presenting the Oscar History of the Telluride Film Festival.  Eventually, after I get the whole history posted as a part of the dual weekly postings, I will post a new page dedicated to the one stop spot for that history.

So, I start today with the TFF Oscar Project Part One 1974-1985 (nominations for the films from a particular year's fest and wins are in parentheses):

1974 (3)
The Conversation- Picture, Original Screenplay, Sound

1981 (2)
Eight Minutes to Midnight- Documentary
Three Brothers-Foreign Language

1983 (5)
Carmen- Foreign Language
Entre Nous- Foreign Language
El Norte-Original Screenplay
Seeing Red- Documentary
Testament- Best Actress- Jane Alexander (first acting nomination from TFF)

1984 (2/1)
Camila- Foreign Language
The Times of Harvey Milk-Documentary-WON (first Oscar win from TFF)

1985 (2)
Colonel Redl- Foreign Language
The Journey of Natty Gann- Costumes


Stay tuned for the continuation of this series over the next few weeks.


DIEGO MARADONA TRAILER

Released just prior to the opening of TFF #46, the folks at HBO dropped this trailer for the documentary Diego Maradona...which examines the life and career of the world famous soccer player.

Here's that trailer from YouTube:

FULL DISCLOSURE

So, as it turns out, I was NOT perfect this year.  I misread the lineup when it was released a week ago.  My final list of 25 Bets included Hirokazu Kore-eda's The Truth.  Somehow I thought it WAS in the lineup announcement and it wasn't.  Consequently, rather than being 25 for 25 for TFF #46, MTFB was actually 24 of 25.

Over the last four years the final pre-SHOW predictions have been 93 of 95.

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More About Toronto / Venice Choices / Telluride and Oscar: The Exit Interview

Howdy...in the air to New York...


MORE ABOUT TORONTO

As a reminder...here's what we think we learned from Tuesday's Toronto announcement:


It looks as if theses films are likely headed to Telluride:

Ford vs. Ferrari
Judy
Marriage Story
Motherless Brooklyn
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
The Two Popes
Uncut Gems

NOT playing Telluride:

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Bad Education
Dolemite Is My Name
Greed
Harriet
Jojo Rabbit
Just Mercy
Knives Out
Radioactive
The Goldfinch
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Ema
Joker
The Laundromat
The Lighthouse

Here's last week's Ten Bets:

10) Country Music/Ryman Concert
9) The Truth
8) Judy
7) Motherless Brooklyn
6) Marriage Story (Previously Untitled Baumbach)
5) Portrait of a Lady on FIre
4) The Climb
3) Parasite
2) Family Romance LLC
1) Varda by Agnes


From these Ten Bets...five seem confirmed for TFF based on the TIFF announcement: Parasite, Portrait of a Woman on Fire, Judy, Motherless Brooklyn and Marriage Story.  All of the other five films on last week's Ten Bets are still in play.

Films that were among the "Other Possibilities" that got nuked:  Jojo Rabbit, The Goldfinch, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Laundromat, Radioactive, The Lighthouse, Harriet and The Personal History of David Copperfield.


Here, via Awards Daily, is the complete set of films Toronto announced on Tuesday:

The 44th Toronto International Film Festival runs September 5–15, 2019.

GALAS 2019
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Marielle Heller | USA World Premiere
Abominable Jill Culton | USA World Premiere
American Woman Semi Chellas | Canada Canadian Premiere
Blackbird Roger Michell | United Kingdom World Premiere
Clemency Chinonye Chukwu | USA International Premiere
Ford v Ferrari James Mangold | USA Canadian Premiere
The Goldfinch John Crowley | USA World Premiere
Harriet Kasi Lemmons | USA World Premiere
Hustlers Lorene Scafaria | USA World Premiere
Joker Todd Phillips | USA North American Premiere
Just Mercy Destin Daniel Cretton | USA World Premiere

*Opening Night Film*
Once Were Brothers: Robbie Robertson and The Band Daniel Roher | Canada World Premiere
Ordinary Love Lisa Barros D’Sa, Glenn Leyburn | United Kingdom World Premiere

*Closing Night Film*
Radioactive Marjane Satrapi | United Kingdom World Premiere
The Sky Is Pink Shonali Bose | India World Premiere
The Song of Names François Girard | Canada World Premiere
True History of the Kelly Gang Justin Kurzel | Australia World Premiere
Western Stars Thom Zimny, Bruce Springsteen | USA World Premiere

SPECIAL PRESENTATIONS 2019

A Herdade Tiago Guedes | Portugal North American Premiere
Bad Education Cory Finley | USA World Premiere
Coming Home Again Wayne Wang | USA/South Korea World Premiere
Dolemite Is My Name Craig Brewer | USA World Premiere
Ema Pablo Larraín | Chile North American Premiere
Endings, Beginnings Drake Doremus | USA World Premiere
Frankie Ira Sachs | France/Portugal North American Premiere
The Friend Gabriela Cowperthwaite | USA World Premiere
Greed Michael Winterbottom | United Kingdom World Premiere
Guest of Honour Atom Egoyan | Canada North American Premiere
Heroic Losers (La odisea de los giles) Sebastian Borensztein | Argentina/Spain International Premiere
Honey Boy Alma Har’el | USAInternational Premiere
Hope Gap William Nicholson | United Kingdom World Premiere
How to Build a Girl Coky Giedroyc | United Kingdom World Premiere

*Opening Special Presentations Film*I Am Woman Unjoo Moon | Australia World Premiere
Jojo Rabbit Taika Waititi | USA World Premiere
Judy Rupert Goold | United Kingdom Canadian Premiere
Knives Out Rian Johnson | USA World Premiere
La Belle Époque Nicolas Bedos | France North American Premiere
The Laundromat Steven Soderbergh | USA North American Premiere
The Lighthouse Robert Eggers | USA North American Premiere
Marriage Story Noah Baumbach | USA Canadian Premiere
Military Wives Peter Cattaneo | United Kingdom World Premiere
Motherless Brooklyn Edward Norton | USA International Premiere
No.7 Cherry Lane Yonfan | Hong Kong North American Premiere
The Other Lamb Malgorzata Szumowska | Belgium/Ireland/USA World Premiere
Pain and Glory Pedro Almodóvar | Spain Canadian Premiere
The Painted Bird Václav Marhoul | Czech Republic/Ukraine/Slovakia North American Premiere
Parasite (Gisaengchung) Bong Joon-ho | South Korea Canadian Premiere
Pelican Blood (Pelikanblut) Katrin Gebbe | Germany/Bulgaria North American Premiere
The Personal History of David Copperfield Armando Iannucci | United Kingdom World Premiere
Portrait of a Lady on Fire (Portrait de la jeune fille en feu) Céline Sciamma | France Canadian Premiere
The Report Scott Z. Burns | USA International Premiere
Saturday Fiction (Lan Xin Da Ju Yuan) Lou Ye | China North American Premiere
The Two Popes Fernando Meirelles | USA/United Kingdom/Italy/Argentina Canadian Premiere
Uncut Gems Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie | USA International Premiere
Weathering With You Makoto Shinkai | Japan North American Premiere
While at War (Mientras Dure La Guerra) Alejandro Amenábar | Spain/Argentina World Premiere

Other fest announcements that we're waiting for that could be revealing will come from the rest of the Toronto field, the Venice schedule and London, New York and Fantastic Fest.



VENICE CHOICES

Here's the lineup announcement from Venice this morning from Indieiwre:

“The Perfect Candidate,” Haifaa Al-Mansour

“About Endlessness,” Roy Andersson

“Wasp Network,” Olivier Assayas

“Marriage Story,” Noah Baumbach

“Guest of Honor, Atom Egoyan

“Ad Astra,” James Gray

“A Herdade,” Tiago Guedes

“Gloria Mundi,” Robert Guediguian

“Waiting for the Barbarians,” Cio Guerra

“Ema,” Pablo Larrain

“Saturday Fiction,” Lou Ye

“Martin Eden,” Pietro Marcello

“The Mafia Is No Longer What It Used to Be,” Franco Maresco

“The Painted Bird,” Vaclav Marhoul

“The Mayor of the Rione Sanità,” Mario Martone

“Babyteeth,” Shannon Murphy

“Joker,” Todd Phillips

“An Officer and a Spy,” Roman Polanski

“The Laundromat,” Steven Soderbergh

“No. 7 Cherry Lane,” Yonfan

Special Event

“Goodbye, Dragon Inn,” Tsai Ming-Liang

Out of Competition – Fiction

“Seberg,” Benedict Andrews

“Vivere,” Francesca Archibugi

“Mosul,” Matthew Michael Carnahan

“Adults in the Room,” Costa-Gavras

“The King,” David Michod

“Tutto Il Mio Folle Amore,” Gabriele Salvatore

As always, much about what is slated for Venice is in play to make the trip across the ocean and it all depends on scheduling.  So while we can't definitely say at this point which of the above films will play TFF #46...some of them will.  When Venice announces its schedule, then we may be able to make some educated guesses about additions to TFF.

That said, you still have to be excited about the possibility that these films might make the leap:

Ad Astra, Marriage Story, Wasp Network, Seberg, The King and opening night film The Truth.   Possibly others.  The complete Indiewire rundown and all categories of selections for Venice are linked here.



TELLURIDE AND OSCAR: THE EXIT INTERVIEW

So my pieces that have focused on the Telluride Film Festival and its relationship with The Academy Awards comes to a conclusion today with a few observations.

First- Yes, the relationship pre-dates my start date of 2005.  As a matter of fact, in 2004 TFF featured Best Picture nominee Finding Neverland ( Seven total nominations with a win for original score and an acting nomination for Johnny Depp).  Kinsey had a nomination for Laura Linney's performance (she was also a tribute recipient that year).

I started with 2005 because it was a year before I began attending the festival and wanted to have at least a year outside my experience included in the analysis.  Also, with it being the year of Brokeback Mountain and Capote, I knew it would have a substantial presence in the eight "major" Oscar categories.

Second- The totals surprised even me a little bit.  Over the 14 year period from 2005-2018 there were 185 Oscar nominations in the "Big Eight" categories for films that played at Telluride.  That's out of a total of 599 possible nominations meaning the T-ride films accounted for 30.9% of all nominees in the categories.  For a film fest that only schedules (usually) 25ish feature films each year over a mere four days...yeesh!  It's unbelievable.

Third- Breakdown by year.  Here's how many "Big Eight" nominations have occurred from Telluride films in each year of this analysis:

2005-13
2006-11
2007-14
2008-9
2010-14
2011-12
2012-7
2013-14
2014-18
2015-15
2016-19
2017-13
2018-15

2016 is the apex with its 19 nominations...that's the year of Moonlight, La La Land, Arrival and Manchester by the Sea.

2012 was the low point with a meager seven nominations in the chosen categories...the year of Argo and Amour.

Over the 14 year study period TFF films have averaged 13.2 nominations per year.  However, looking at the last five years, that average is 16 per year indicating an intensification of the connection between Telluride and Oscar

Fourth-Breakdown by category-nominations:

Picture- 32 That's the largest raw number of nominees for any category but keep in mind that's 32 of a possible 109 slots. By percentage, that's 29.4% of the category's nominees for the last 14 years.  That 29.4% puts Best Picture below a number of the other categories.

Director-31 (44.2%-way in front, percentage-wise, of all the categories)

Supporting Actress-26 (37.1%- far and away the acting category with the largest number of TFF nominees.  The irony here is that it's also the category with the least wins-1)

Actress and Actor-22 (31.4%-nice to see the two major acting categories balanced)

Adapted and Original Screenplay-19 (27.1%-also a surprising balance)

Supporting Actor 14 (20%)

Fifth-Breakdown by category-win percentage.  What is the average chances that a nominee from a TFF film will win in a category based on the data from these last 14 years?

1) Director-10 wins from 31 nominations-32.2%
2) Adapted Screenplay-7 wins from 19 nominations-36.8%
3) Actor-7 wins from 22 nominations-31.8%
4) Picture- 9 wins from 32 nominations-28.1%
5) Original Screenplay-5 wins from 19 nominations-26.3%
6) Actress- 5 wins from 22 nominations-22.7%
7) Supporting Actor- 1 win from 14 nominations-7.1%
8) Supporting Actress-1 win from 26 nominations-3.8%

Overall- Telluride films have 45 wins out of a possible 112 for the last 14 years in these eight categories accounting for a stunning 40.2% of all victories.

Last- Much like the 2017-18 Program Project.  I'm planning to put all of this together as a separate History tab on this site...someday.

That's today's MTFB.  Tomorrow...a new Ten Bets!



EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Telluride and Oscar Part Seven: Best Adapted Screenplay / London Opening Film In Play? / A Couple of Tidbits: Uncut Gems and Just Mercy / Late Breaking: Venice Opener

Hi there...I'm on the road...headed to Oregon...



TELLURIDE AND OSCAR PART SEVEN: BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Here's Part Seven of the eight part series concerning the films of the Telluride Film Festival and the Academy Awards covering the last 14 years (that starts with 2015 which was the year before I began attending).  Today's category of concentration is Best Adapted Screenplay.  Listed below are all of the films nominated in that category since 2005 that played Telluride.  Winners are indicated with ***.

2005: Brokeback Mountain***, Capote
2006: Little Children
2007: There Will Be Blood (I count it as we saw footage in connection with the Daniel Day-Lewis tribute), The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
2008: Slumdog Millionaire***, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Same as There Will Be Blood only with a tribute to David Fincher)
2009: An Education, Up in the Air
2010: 127 Hours
2011: The Descendants***
2012: Argo***
2013: 12 Years a Slave***
2014: The Imitation Game***
2015: Carol, Room
2016: Moonlight***, Arrival
2017: No nominees
2018: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Notes 19 nominations over the 14 years with a strong seven wins in that time period.

As best as can tell the first film from TFF with a nomination for Best adapted Screenplay was My Left Foot in 1989.

As a percentage of  wins to nominations this is the category that having a nomination from a TFF film gives the nominee the best chance of a win with 36.8% of TFF nominees winning the honor.  The next best category is Best Director with a 32.2% win ratio.  The worst: Best Supporting Actress with a 3.8% win ratio.


Next Tuesday...the last of the "Big Eight" categories: Best Original Screenplay.


LONDON OPENING FILM IN PLAY?

The BFI/London Film Festival announced its opening film will be Armando Ianucci's (Into the Loop, Veep) The Personal History of David Copperfield.  Why should we take note?  The film was announced as a European Premiere.  That means that the film will have screened at at least one other spot prior to its stint as the LFF opening film.

The European designation should mean that Venice is off the list as a possibility leaving Toronto, New York (barely as NYFF opens Sept. 28th while London will screen it on Oct. 2.

The European designation means the first screening in Europe will be at LFF.  It necessarily means that the "World" premiere happens somewhere else...and...as LFF doesn't label it an "International" premiere...that suggests that the film will have played within the country of its origin.

What I'm saying here is that divining this news in terms of a potential Telluride play comes down to how the film's country of origin in classified.  If it's a "U.S." production then this could mean that the film plays at Telluride.  If it's a Brit production... could mean a Toronto World Premiere.

And I am uncertain as to the film's nationality.

But...this could be in Telluride.

Here's the Deadline story about the London Film Fest opening night announcement.



COUPLE OF TIDBITS


Jeff Sneider of TheInSneider fame Tweeted this yesterday:

Sneider, who has been knocking about the movie biz for a good long time including writing for Variety, Ain't It Cool News and The Wrap is clearly suggesting that the Safdie Brothers Uncut Gems starring Adam Sandler is on the TFF #46 agenda.

The film is an A24 project and I did not assess it when I looked at A24's offerings back on July 1st.  At that time, I felt like A24's most probable film to play TFF was The Lighthouse.  That said, I believe that it's entirely possible that Uncut Gems could make it to Colorado.  Perhaps both films will.

In another tidbit, Just Mercy from director Destin Daniel Cretton (Short Term 12) which had been announced with a release date in January 2020 now seems like it will be released on Dec. 25th according to The Hollywood Reporter.  That puts it into awards season play for Warner Brothers and suggests that it could pop up at one or more fall film fests.  The WB appears to be loaded with this as well as Joker, Motherless Brooklyn and The Goldfinch.

The film stars Michael B. Jordan, Brie Larson and Jamie Foxx and tells the  true story of an African American man accused of a murder he didn't commit.

LATE BREAKING: VENICE OPENER

The Venice Film Festival has chosen Hirokazu Kore-eda's The Truth as its opening film.  That probably raises the chances that it will play Telluride.  More tomorrow.

That'll do it for this Thursday...More to come tomorrow including the last Ten Bets before Toronto and Venice begin announcing.

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Telluride and Oscar Part Five: Best Supporting Actress / The Woman Not in Window This Year / The Jesus Rolls Into 2020 / More on Milos Stehlik

It's Thursday, July 11, 2020...we should know the lineup for TFF #46 seven weeks from today!



TELLURIDE AND OSCAR PART FIVE: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

I'm continuing my eight part series about the relationship between the Telluride Film Festival in the last 14 years (beginning with 2005-the year before I first attended the fest) and The Oscars.  Today's subject is Best Supporting Actress.

Here are the women nominated for that honor from films that played The SHOW.  Winners are indicated with ***.


2005: Michelle Williams/Brokeback Mountain, Catherine Keener/Capote
2006: Rinko Kikuchi/Babel, Adriana Barazza/Babel
2007: Cate Blanchett/I'm Not There
2008: Taraji P. Henson/The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2009: Anna Kendrick/Up in the Air, Vera Farmiga/Up in the Air
2010: Helena Bonham Carter/The King's Speech
2011: Berenice Bejo/The Artist, Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs
2012: No nominees
2013: Lupita N'yongo/12 Years a Slave***, June Squibb/Nebraska

Emma Stone-Oscar nominee for Birdman

2014: Emma Stone/Birdman, Laura Dern/Wild, Keira Knightley/The Imitation Game
2015: Rachel McAdams/Spotlight, Rooney Mara/Carol, Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs
2016: Naomie Harris/Moonlight, Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea
2017: Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird, Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
2018: Emma Stone/The Favourite, Rachel Weisz/The Favourite, Marina de Tavira/Roma

Notes: An astounding 26 nominations in this category in the past 14 years but remarkably only a single win for Lupita N'yongo for 12 Years a Slave.

Both Michelle Williams and Emma Stone have been nominated twice in the category for TFF film performances.  Additionally, Stone was nominated and won Best Actress for La La Land.  TFF films account for all three of Stone nominations.

Williams has two other nominations for Best Actress for Blue Valentine and My Week with Marilyn.

Laura Dern's two Oscar nominations have both come via TFF films.  One in this category in 2014 for Wild.  The other was for Best Actress in 1991 for her performance in Rambling Rose.

TFF has seen three years in which three women were nominated 2014, 2015 and 2018.

To the best of my ability, I believe Ann Sothern was the first woman nominated for Supporting Actress for a T-ride film for 1987's The Whales of August.

Next Tuesday: Part Six: Supporting Actors.



THE WOMAN NOT IN THE WINDOW THIS YEAR

Amy Adams working on the film The Woman in the Window (via The Daily Mail)

Reports appeared yesterday that the Disney folks have moved Joe Wright's The Woman in the Window off its original Oct. 4th date.

That, as you might surmise, moves the film off the TFF #46 watch list.

The Hollywood Reporter's Rebecca Keegan noted Tuesday that the film has been pulled from the schedule for re-shoots after test screenings revealed that audiences were confused.  THR reports that the re-shoots re set to occur next month after star Amy Adams finishes her work on the Ron Howard project Hillbilly Elegy (already on my radar for TFF #47).

The film also features Oscars winner Gary Oldman and Julianne Moore.

Disney acquired the film earlier this year as apart of its takeover of 20th Century Fox and its off-shoots including Fox 2000 which was the home for The Woman in the Window.

Here's the complete story from The Hollywood Reporter.


THE JESUS ROLLS INTO 2020

John Turturro's semi-sequel to The Big Lebowski-which had been titled Going Places but has been re-christened now as The Jesus Rolls- has an announced release target.  Multiple sources put the film into an early 2020 release window.  No specific date has been announced, however.

Screen Media has acquired the film for distribution.

I had been watching for the news of distribution acquisition and dating and admittedly had it on my TFF radar largely because of the connection of the film to The Coen Brothers' Big Lebowski.

I'm of a mind that the 2020 date probably means that the film is probably out as a TFF consideration.

For fuller details check below for reports from:

Variety

Indiewire 

Deadline


MORE ON MILOS STEHLIK (AND A LITTLE ABOUT BEN BARENHOLTZ)

Continued memorials for Milos Stehlik, 1997 TFF Silver Medallion winner and member of the TFF Board of Governors (among many, many other titles and accolades).  Stehlik passed away last Saturday.

Reel Chicago

WBEZ.org

The Criterion Collection (by David Hudson)  It should be noted that this piece from The Criterion Collection website is for both Stehlik as well as Ben Barenholtz.  Barenholtz was a producer, distributor and programmer of note and I am told was instrumental in the early careers of David Lynch, The Coen Brothers and Darren Aronofsky.  He was an early and frequent attendee at Telluride.

Barenholtz died on June 27th at the age of 83.  His New York Times obituary is linked here.



Thanks for reading.  More tomorrow including a new Ten Bets.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Distributors 2019: Netflix / If I Had To... / Oscar Has Dates / The Return of Looney Tunes?

Good Friday everyone and welcome to the start of this weekend...


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: NETFLIX

This week's opening two entries in my annual rundown of distribution companies and the films each has that could be part of the Telluride lineup focused on the company with the longest and most ubiquitous recent history with the fest (Sony Pictures Classics) and another that has had the most Oscar success with films that have played the fest (Fox Searchlight).

Today we look at the company that has been very impressive over that past four years at Telluride both in terms of quality as well as in terms of increasing quantity as well as being the lightning rod in the conversation about what theatrical distribution may mean going forward and that, of course, is Netflix.

The streaming giant first showed up at T-ride in 2015 and has been a consistent presence at the fest since then.

Last year they made their biggest splash yet in regards to awards season with Alfonso Cuaron's Roma playing Venice and then Telluride on its way to three Oscars (Foreign Language Film, Direction and Cinematography) and seven other nominations including Best Picture.

Here's the Netflix history at Telluride for these past four years:

2018: Roma, Dovlatov, Girl, Reversing Roe, The Other Side of the Wind, They'll Love Me When I'm Dead
2017: First They Killed My Father, Wormwood
2016: The Ivory Game, Into the Inferno
2015- Beasts of No Nation, Winter on Fire

This is how I predicted their potential for Telluride last summer on June 26th.
The Other Side of the Wind- 80%
Girl and/or Happy as Lazzaro- 50%
Roma- 40%
Outlaw King- 25%
Triple Frontier- 15%
The Irishman- 5%

And, as you can see from above, Other Side of the Wind, Girl, and Roma all made the TFF #45 lineup.

So, I have to believe that it is very likely that Netflix returns to TFF this year with more than one film.

At this point here are the films under the Netflix umbrella that I think have some chance of being programmed for Labor Day weekend:

Atlantics (Diop)
The Irishman (Scorsese)
The King (Michod)
The Last Thing He Wanted (Rees)
The Laundromat (Soderbergh)
The Pope (Meirelles)
Untitled Noah Baumbach (Baumbach)

Scorsese, Baumbach, Soderbergh and Meirelles have all had films involved at Telluride in the past.
 
Of late, Scorsese's "presence" has been as a producer of documentaries that have been a part of the fest's lineup: Living in the Material World, The 50 Year Argument.  He was also a producer for Bleed for This.
Baumbach had Frances Ha and Margot at the Wedding. 
Soderbergh has had films play at TFF that he acted as a producer for including We Need to Talk About Kevin, Keane and I'm Not There. 
Meirelles City of God played in 2002.

Diop's Atlantics  might have the best chance of playing at TFF owing to its reception at Cannes.  It won the Jury's Grand Prize and was reasonably well received critically.

Honestly, on paper no one film stands out as being more or less likely to play.  Scorsese hasn't been to T-ride since back near the very beginning.  Baumbach has tended toward shying away.  Meirelles has only had the single film 17 years ago.

The biggest "get" would be Scorsese' The Irishman...which still might not be done with the de-aging visual effects come Labor Day weekend.  My expectation will be that Netflix will want to go all for the Oscars with The Irishman as they did with Roma last year but that other factors may mean that The Irishman bypasses everything until the New York Film Fest ( Sept. 27-Oct. 13).

So...my best guestimates at this time:

Atlantics 50%
Untitled Baumbach 40%
The Laundromat 35%
The Last Thing He Wanted 30%
The King 30%
The Irishman 25%
The Pope 20%


 IF I HAD TO...

As regular readers are aware, I won't have my first "real" predictions about what I'm guessing plays at Telluride for another couple of weeks.  But the last couple of years, I have done an early "spitball" as if I were being forced at gunpoint to make some guesses.

So here that is...

If I had to name ten films I thought might make the TFF #46 program as of today they would be (in alphabetical order not order of likelihood:

Atlantics
The Climb
Country Music
Family Romance LLC
The Goldfinch
Nomadland
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Untitled Todd Haynes Project
Varda by Agnes

If the last couple of years are any indication...about half this list will actually make the T-ride grade.


OSCAR HAS DATES

After moving the Oscar awards ceremony up for 2020 to Feb. 9th, we learned this week that early time slot will be temporary.  AMPAS announced that Oscar will revert back to the final Sunday in February for its ceremony in 2021 and 2022.  That's Feb. 28, 2021 and Feb. 27, 2022.

Linked here are posts about the announcement from both

Indiewire

and

The Hollywood Reporter


THE RETURN OF LOONEY TUNES?

Photo via Warner Bros. and The Hollywood Reporter

The Annecy Animation Fest is ongoing in France and as I have noted on occasion here, there have been a number of animated films that have moved from that fest to a Telluride screening later.

That could happen again this year and in a very specific, nostalgic and Telluride-centric way.  Warner Brothers has resurrected the old Looney Tune brand and unveiled a number of animated shorts featuring Bugs, Daffy and this week in France.

Considering TFF's long association with WB animating legend Chuck Jones (there's a huge venue named in his honor!) you have to believe that a program of the new cartoons could be included as a part of TFF #46.

The Hollywood Reporter covered the screening in Annecy and you can find their post for that linked here.

Th...th...that's all folks!

I'll have more on Monday.  Have a great weekend.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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In Case You Missed It: Toronto and Venice News / Old Friends / Non-Fiction Has Distribution / The Elephant in the Room / And the Poster

Welcome to Thursday...


IN CASE YOU MISSED THEM

I am re-posting a couple of special items that came down the pike since my last regularly scheduled post on Tuesday morning:

TORONTO NEWS

From today's announcement of new titles from the Toronto International Film Festival:

Twelve films were added to the TIFF lineup Wednesday for their Platform Section.  All but one are listed as World or North American premieres taking them out of the Telluride conversation.  However Karyn Kusama's Destroyer starring Nicole Kidman with Sebastian Stan is listed as an International Premiere which indicates that it is now a likely title for The SHOW.

Destroyer has not yet been dated for U.S. release but you have to expect an awards qualifying date must be in the offing.  Destroyer is being distributed by Annapurna.

Let me just mention...a Nicole Kidman tribute?

Here's coverage of the announcement of Toronto's Platform section from:

The Hollywood Reporter

Indiewire

The Wrap

Deadline


 VENICE NEWS

It appears that the Venice Film Fest will announce their schedule earlier than expected.  The schedule was originally to have been announced on Friday but we should see the it on Thursday now according to the Twitterverse:

The schedule for films screening at the Venice Film Festival, which although not definitive in and of themselves, can offer clues about which films that are screening there could conceivably also make the lineup for TFF #45.  For example, if Errol Morris' American Dharma is scheduled Aug.29-31 or Sept. 6-8...that would indicate at least a temporal possibility for the documentary to play both in Venice and Telluride.

Based on last year's fests, I am expecting a half a dozen or so films to play both places.  We already are expecting: First Man, Roma, The Favourite and Peterloo.

These films are all potentially possible for a Venice play in addition to Telluride: Vox Lux, 22 July, Suspiria, Never Look Away, The Nightingale, American Dharma, They'll Love Me When I'm Dead, The Other Side of the Wind, The Mountain, Blood Kin and the new extended version of Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life.

My best guess here would be the two documentaries: Errol Morris' Steve Bannon doc; American Dharma and the Morgan Neville doc about making The Other Side of the Wind; They'll Love Me When I'm Dead.

OLD FRIENDS

Each year, at some point during the summer, I assess what I call "The Usual Suspects".  That's the list of directors, producers, actors, etc. that have seemed to established a relationship with Telluride through the years.

Almost without exception when the actual lineup is finalized, it feels a little like that might be an exercise in futility.  So, over the last couple of days, I took a look at the films that we are predicting/relatively confident about for 2018 to see if "The Usual Suspects" is a worthwhile metric.

At this point, I'm thinking we have  films that feature directors that have established a TFF connection after having screened films their previously:

First Man (Damian Chazelle-La La Land)
Roma (Alfonso Cuaron-Gravity)
Peterloo (Mike Leigh-Another Year and others)
The Front Runner (Jason Reitman-Up in the Air and others)
Dogman (Matteo Garrone-Gomorrah)
Cold War (Pawel Pawlikowski-Ida)
Meeting Gorbachev (Werner Herzog-he's had a few)
Non-Fiction (Olivier Assasyas-Carlos)

Then there's The Other Side of the Wind which is Orson Welles but also includes Frank Marshall and Peter Bogdanovich in significant roles getting the film done.

Ina addition, among other films we think will play that don't have a directing connection there are The Favourite which stars Emma Stone who has been to T-ride for two straight years.  The Old Man and the Gun which stars 2013 TFF Tributee Robert Redford and 2016 Tributee Casey Affleck.  White Boy Rick features 1993 TFF Tributee Jennifer Jason Leigh and Bruce Dern who attended TFF in 2013.  It also credits Darren Aronofsky as a producer who was at TFF in 2010 as the director of Black Swan.


So, I suppose, "The Usual Suspects" is still a useful metric.


NON-FICTION HAS DISTRIBUTION

Photo via Variety.com

We learned yesterday that Sundance Selects has acquired the rights to distribute Olivier Assasyas' Non-Fiction in the United States.

That story is covered here by The Hollywood Reporter and Deadline.

We believe that Non-Fiction will play as a part of the lineup at the Telluride Film Festival. 

Sundance Selects has had a significant history with Telluride along with their distributing partner IFC Films.  That tradition looks as if it will continue with Non-Fiction.


AND THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

I'm sure many of you saw the news from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences yesterday about changes coming to Oscar over the next season or two.

There were three significant changes announced:

Some categories will be shuffled off the live telecast...the categories were unnamed.
A new category will be added for Best "Popular" Film
And, the 2020 telecast will be moved up by a couple of weeks to Feb. 9th.

Largely the reaction in the Film Twitter world was negative, although there were a couple of notable defenders of the Best Popular Film move.

Of more interest to me was the decision to push the ceremony to earlier in February which, as a number of people noted yesterday, probably increases the importance of Telluride in regards to Oscar. 

That notion kind of makes my head spin a bit.  Telluride's influence vis-a-vis Oscar has grown dramatically over the years I have been attending (since 2006).  Whether that's by happenstance or design isn't particular important.  What is key is that as we move through the next couple of years, it's doubtful that T-ride's role in the Oscar season is going to wain.

It's likely to mean that a ticket that was tough to get last March (selling out in a couple of days) gets even more dicey for 2019 and 2020.

Honestly, I suspect that some changes will be forthcoming regarding ticketing for The SHOW. 

Stay tuned...


AND THE POSTER

It's true.  A poster exists.  I have been told that a copy of said poster has been hung in the window in The Nugget Theater in Telluride.

I have seen photographic evidence.

I am refraining from posting at this point as I await the official announcement from the festival.

Believe me, though, a poster exists.


That's all for now...more coming tomorrow including an updated Ten (Plus) Bets list and an analysis of the Venice schedule as it sets up potential Telluride players.


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The FAC Updates Editing and Cinematography / And Now an Attempt at the Short Form Films / The Final Predictions from... / A Grab Bag of Stories for TFF #43 Films

It's Thursday.  The Apocalypse commences in one day...otherwise, hope you're doing fine...


THE FAC UPDATES FILM EDITING AND CINEMATOGRAPHY

I'm continuing to update The Film Awards Clearinghouse predictions for Oscar nominations as we down to just a matter of days before the announcement (Tuesday, Jan. 24th 8:30 am ET/5:30 am PT). Monday's post will be the last before the word comes down and will be a final comprehensive look at all 24 categories.

Today, a look at Film Editing and Cinematography as well as a stab at the Short Form categories.


I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire


TFF #43 films are in Bold.


FILM EDITING

1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (2)
3) Arrival (3)
4) Hacksaw Ridge (5)
5) Manchester by the Sea (6)

6) Hell or High Water (4)
7) Lion (NR)
8) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
9) Silence (7)
10) Rogue One (10)

Hot: Lion, Nocturnal Animals
Not: Hell or High Water, Silence, Sully and Fences
On the Cusp: Sully
Comment:  This might tell us a lot about the relative chances that Fences will get a Best Picture nomination.  It also reflects the A.C.E./Eddie nominations and the BAFTA nominations.


CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) La La Land (1)
2) Arrival (3)
3) Moonlight (4)
4) Silence (2)
5) Lion (6)

6) Nocturnal Animals (5)
7) Hell or High Water (NR)
8) Jackie (7)
9) Live by Night (8)
10) Hail, Caesar (9)

Hot: Hell or High Water
Not: Silence and Cafe Society
On the Cusp: Rogue One
Comment:  Also reflecting a bit of the Guild and BAFTA nominations.



AND NOW AN ATTEMPT AT THE SHORT FORM FILMS

Disclaimer:  Unlike the 21 feature film categories, in most cases I am only working with input from four or five of the Oscar experts in these pesky and hard to pick categories...so take these predictions with a massive grain of sodium chloride...

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Silent Nights
2) Nocturne in Black
3) Graffiti
4) Bon Voyage
5) Sing

6) Timecode
7) Domestic Enemies
8) The Rifle...
9) Le Femme et le TVG
10) The Way of Tea

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Inner Workings
2) Piper
3) The Head Vanishes
4) Blind Vaysha
5) Pearl

6) Pear and Cider Cigarettes
7) Borrowed Time
8) Once Upon a Line
9) Happy End
10) Under Your Fingers

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Joe's Violin
2) The White Helmets
3) Extremis
4) Watani: My Homeland
5) 4.1 Miles

6) Frame 394
7) The Mute's House
8) Close Ties
9) The Other Side of Home
10) Brillo Pad

If The FAC goes 60% for these three categories, I'll be pleased.  Also, if these predictions hold...all five shorts that played Telluride will be nominated.


FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM...

Here we begin linking to the Final Oscar nomination predictions from Oscar prognosticating experts:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention



A GRAB BAG OF STORIES FOR TFF #43 FILMS

Here are a collection of stories from the past week or so that I've collected about some if Telluride 2016's films.  They range from interviews to profiles to behind the scenes posts:

DIRECTOR'S ROUND TABLES:

The Hollywood Reporter

The Film Stage

MOONLIGHT:

Indiewire

The Playlist

LA LA LAND

Deadline

Kodak.com

Yahoo Movies

ARRIVAL

Indiewire

also Indiewire

The New Yorker


That's it for today.  Re-visit Monday for The FAC's Oscar nomination final!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The FAC Updates for Best Picture, Director and Screenplays / Directors Guild Loves Telluride / The Oscar Nomination Announcement Format Changes / Handicapping the Best Picture Race / Speaking of Guilds: Cinematography

Good Monday to all...


THE FAC UPDATES FOR BEST PICTURE, DIRECTOR AND SCREENPLAYS

Now it's essentially all over but the waiting and the actual announcement of nominees on Jan. 24th.   All of the major precursors have weighed in.  Critics, Guilds, Globes and BAFTA.  We're down to a week to go.  As you will see in the four categories that I have listed for this post, these late breaking group announcements do move the needle when it comes to the predictions made by the Oscar experts.  For example, BAFTA's love for Nocturnal Animals (which hasn't been scoring much during the past couple of months) gave it a boost and Lion and its director, Garth Davis, has clearly benefited from the nominations from the Producers and Directors Guilds.

Check the latest updates...

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The film's previous position follows its title in parentheses (with trailers for the leaders in each category via YouTube).

BEST PICTURE

1) La La Land (1)

2) Moonlight (2)

3) Manchester by the Sea (3)

4) Arrival (6)

5) Hell or High Water (4)

6) Lion (7)

7) Hacksaw Ridge (9)

8) Hidden Figures 8)

9) Fences (5)

10) Nocturnal Animals (NR)

11) Silence (10)

12) Loving (NR)

Hot: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Nocturnal Animals

Not: Fences, Jackie, Sully

On the Cusp: Jackie

Comment:  Fences looks to be in real danger of missing a BP nomination.  Of course, the Academy could nominate nine or ten films, but seems to be the groove that we've settled into over the past couple of years.  

Arrival has gone from a film that looked shaky for a BP nom into a very solid contender.

La La Land's choice for the top spot scored one point short of its highest possible score.  

BEST DIRECTION

1) Damein Chazelle/La La Land (1)

2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (2)

3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester

4) Denis Villeneuve/Arrival (5)

5) Garth Davis/Lion (9)

6) Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge (7)

7) David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water (8)

8) Martin Scorsese/Silence (4)

9) Denzel Washington/Fences (6)

10) Pablo Larrain/Jackie (10)

Hot: Davis

Not: Scorsese, Washington

On the Cusp: Ken Loach/I, Daniel Blake

Comment:This category illustrates starkly the effect of the announcements from the PGA and DGA. Garth Davis jumps into the #5 spot, up four places while Scorsese and Washington drop precipitously. 

Personally, I think the 4-5 spots are likely still a giant arm-wrestling match between Davis, Gibson and Mackenzie.  I'm still pulling for Villenueve and Mackenzie to snag those spots rather than Davis and Gibson.  

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Moonlight (1)

2) Arrival (3)

3) Fences (2)

4) Lion (4)

5) Hidden Figures (6)

6) Nocturnal Animals (10)

7) Loving (7)

8) Hacksaw Ridge (9)

9) Silence (5)

10) Deadpool (NR)

Hot: Nocturnal and Deadpool

Not: Silence and Sully

On the Cusp: Sully

Comment: I haven't talked about the ascendance of Deadpool yet.  It's Writers Guild and Producers Guild nominations as well as a nom for Tim Miller as a first time director from the DGA plus an editing nom from that guild has made the film a serious part of the conversation for nominations including...are you sitting down?...Best Picture (where, if I extended my chart, it would sit at #15).  Additionally, another category that shows the rise of Nocturnal Animals and the diminishing chances of Silence.

The Moonlight lead is substantial in this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Manchester by the Sea (1)

2) La La Land (2)

3) Hell or High Water (3)

4) The Lobster (4)

5) 20th Century Women (5)

6) Captain Fantastic (6)

7) Jackie (7)

8) Zootopia (8)

9) I, Daniel Blake (NR)

10) Florence Foster Jenkins (10)

Hot: I, Daniel Blake

Not: Miss Sloane

On the Cusp: Toni Erdmann

Comment: The battle for the last spot seems intense between: the films in the five through eight spots.

(PARENTHETICAL NOTE:  Good God, look at the dominance of films that played TFF #43 in these four categories...top four films in the Best Pic and Directing categories and top two films in each screenwriting category...)



DIRECTORS GUILD LOVES TELLURIDE

The Directors Guild of America (DGA) announced its nominees for excellence in direction on Thursday and four TFF #43 directors and their films were named:

Damien Chazelle/La La Land
Barry Jenkins/Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villenueve/Arrival

Villeneuve's nomination was a minor surprise.

The fifth nominee was Garth Davis for Lion.  Davis was also nominated for Best Direction of a First Film.  Davis' nomination was a bit of a surprise and knocked out Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge, Martin Scorsese/Silence and David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water who were all thought to be serious candidates for the nomination.

The DGA is one of the best predictors (along with the PGA) among the guilds of future Oscar success, though it doesn't necessarily mean that it will predict the directing category with 100% accuracy.  There's a very good chance that there will be a single divergence between the DGA list and the directors that will be announced on Jan. 24th (and more about the Academy's decision to change how that announcement is made below).

The DGA will announce its winners on Feb. 4th.

DGA coverage and analysis from:

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Dave McNary/Variety

Michael Nordine/Indiewire

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Joey Nolfi/Entertainment Weekly

Steve Pond/The Wrap


THE OSCAR NOMINATION ANNOUNCEMENT FORMAT CHANGES

The Academy Awards nomination announcement will come a week from tomorrow but it's going to be a bit different than what we have been accustomed to over the years.  AMPAS will not announce to a live group of publicists, consultants and others this year but will, instead, produce an online reveal on Oscar.com and Oscar.org as well as the network television reveal on Good Morning America on ABC.

The announcement will still come down at 8:30am ET/5:30am PT.

More details are here from Kristopher Tapley/Variety(In Contention) Will Robinson/Entertainment Weekly and Erik Anderson/Awards Watch.



HANDICAPPING BEST PICTURE THROUGH GUILDS AND CRITICS

Those of you that have read this space over the years when we get to the post-Telluride six month run to the Oscars may recall that I pay more attention to some guilds and critics groups than others.  For example, just this past week or so guilds for cinematographers and costumers have weighed in with their nominees and I haven't mentioned them here.  It's not that I think that their contributions are less important or that their guild kudos have no predictive qualities but guild success in other areas seems to be more predictive of Oscar success.

In terms of guilds I look at the producers, directors, actors, writers and editors.  I also look at the major New York and Los Angeles critics groups.  In addition, I pay attention to the American Film Institutes's top film list as well the National Board of Review.  Also, I pay attention to Golden Globe nominees and, when we reach this point, winners.

Throw all that in the metaphorical blender and here's what that set of data says are the most likely Best Picture Oscar nominees:

1) Moonlight- Golden Globe/Best Picture (Drama), PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG Ensemble, ACE, AFI, NBR, LA critics winner

2) La La Land- Golden Globe/Best Picture (Comedy or Musical), PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, AFI, NBR, New York Critics winner, (also LA Critic's runner-up)

3) Manchester by the Sea PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, AFI, NBR

4) Arrival- PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, AFI, NBR

5) Hell or High Water- PGA, WGA, ACE, AFI, NBR

6) Fences- PGA, WGA, SAG Ensemble, AFI

7) Hidden Figures- PGA, WGA, SAG Ensemble, NBR

8) Hacksaw Ridge- PGA, ACE, AFI, NBR

You could make a pretty good argument that these eight films will be the likely Best Picture Oscar nominees.

Moonlight and La La Land are so tight as to be virtually deadlocked. I think Moonlight gets the edge for the top spot here due to its SAG ensemble nomination.

Lurking as spoilers are these films which have two of the precursors I listed above:
Lion- PGA, DGA
Silence- NBR, AFI
Sully- NBR, AFI
Hail, Caesar- ACE, NBR

No other possible Best Picture players have more than one of the precursors I am focused on including Nocturnal Animals, Patriot's Day and Loving.

As you look at The FAC from above, it seems that Lion may well bump one of these films out of the expected eight nominations.  Fences?  Hacksaw? Hidden Figures?


SPEAKING OF GUILDS: CINEMATOGRAPHY

The American Society of  Cinematographers named their top films last week with nominations announced on Wednesday.  Three films that played the 2016 Telluride Film Festival made the field of five: La LA :and, Moonlight and Arrival.  The five cinematographers and their films were:

Greig Fraser/Lion
James Laxton/Moonlight
Rodrigo Pietro/Silence
Linus Sandgren/La La land
Bradford Young/Arrival

Coberage of the ASC announcement follows:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety (In Contention)

Steve Pond/The Wrap

Jeffrey Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere


That's a wrap for this Monday.  More to come on Thursday as we continue to update The FAC and countdown to Oscar nomination morning.

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