Telluride News Coming This Week? / Venice Festival Dipsy-Do / 21st Century Films and Telluride

TELLURIDE NEWS COMING THIS WEEK?

Deadline's Andreas Wiseman wrote an article posted Tuesday that discusses the potential of five different fall film fests occurring in a Covid-19 world.  Telluride is one of the five fests that gets assessed.  The article drops this tantalizing bit of info:

"Telluride (September 4 – 7/8): A spokesperson for the picturesque and famously press-shy Telluride Film Festival has told us that they are “hoping to have some information this week” regarding the event’s status and planning in light of the Coronavirus. The Oscar-bellwether was expected to expand to five days this year after the Town Council approved an additional day earlier this month. Colorado has recorded close to 10,000 positive cases of COVID-19 and 422 deaths. The state garnered international headlines this week when healthcare workers blocked anti-lockdown protests."

The most intriguing part of that assessment is the "spokesperson's..."hoping to have some information this week".

Additionally, Deadline mentions the extra fifth day reportedly approved by the Telluride Town Council last week.

What's confusing?  The Deadline author lists the dates for the fest as Sept.4-7/8 meaning that their assumption is that Telluride is tacking the fifth day onto the end of the fest rather than, as I had assumed, the Thursday before the fest as TFF did in 2013 for its 40th iteration.

Further confusing the date situation is that the original reporting from the Telluride Watch/Daily Planet cites the added date as Sept. 1 which would be the Tuesday before the traditional and originally schedule Friday start.  From The Daily Planet last week:

Sooo....

The complete Deadline article is linked here.

VENICE FESTIVAL DIPSY-DO

Just a day after an interview with Venice Biennale President Roberto Cicutto (the film fest's parent organization) said that no collaboration with Cannes was planned, came another interview with festival's artistic director, Alberto Barbera that suggests just the opposite.  

The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Roxborough in a post that went up on Tuesday afternoon that Barbera had some strong thoughts about a Cannes partnership with Venice.  From the post:

"The Venice International Film Festival has "a concrete will" to collaborate with Cannes this year, in what Venice artistic director Alberto Barbera says would be a "sign of solidarity towards the cinema world" during the coronavirus crisis."

"ANSA quoted Barbera as saying he had not excluded the possibility of "a real collaboration with the Cannes Film Festival, which would be a sign of solidarity towards the cinema world, which is now more than ever in difficulty."  Barbera said he was in talks with Frémaux and that there was a "concrete will" on both sides to find a solution."


The story suggests that Venice, at least at this point, continues to stay the course on its planned dates of Sept. 2-12.

The full THR story is here.



21ST CENTURY FILMS AND TELLURIDE

I missed this back a few weeks ago when Empire Online published their list of the 100 Greatest Films of the 21st Century (so far).  Empire says in the introductory paragraphs that the list (originally published on Jan. 8th) that they combined the thoughts of their team with thousands of responses from their readers in compiling the list.

So, as you might expect...I had to see how many and at what spots within the 100 that Telluride films popped up.  Here's what I discovered...19 TFF films made the list.  Here they are presented with their position and the year that they screened at TFF:

95- A Prophet (09)
90- Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (00)
83- Frances Ha (12)
72- Birdman (14)
63- Under the Skin (13)
60- Carol (15)
54- Brokeback Mountain (05)
46- Inside Llewyn Davis (13)
44- Roma (18)
36- Lady Bird (17)
35- Arrival (16)
34- Zodiac (08)
31- Amelie (01)
24- La La Land (16)
23- City of God (02)
15- Spirited Away (02)
11- There Will Be Blood (scenes screened as part of Daniel Day Lewis tribute 07)
10- Lost in Translation (03)
5- Moonlight (16)

Notes: 
*The #1 film on the list: George Miller's Mad Max: Fury Road.

*You could make a case for 2016 being TFF's strongest year with three films making this list: #5 Moonlight, #24 La La Land and #35 Arrival.

* TFF 2002 landed two films on the list: #15 Spirited Away and #23 City of God.  TFF 2013 also has two films making the grade: #46 Inside Llewyn Davis and #63 Under the Skin.

*Ang Lee is the only director to land two TFF films on the list: #54 Brokeback Mountain and #90 Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon.

*The Noah Baumbach/Greta Gerwig team scores with #83 Frances Ha (Baumbach directed and co-wrote with Gerwig who stars in it) and #36 Lady Bird (written and directed by Gerwig.  Baumbach gets a "Special Thanks" mention in the credits).


Check out the complete list of 100 films from Empire Online linked here.



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May I Have the Envelope Please...No, No, the Correct Envelope / Oscars Love Telluride's 2016 Lineup

Welcome to Monday


OSCARS LOVE TELLURIDE'S 2016 LINEUP


It was an insane night full of surprises large and small with the largest being the announcing of one Best Picture winner only to have that reversed in favor of a surprise upset winner.  Moonlight won Best Picture but only found out after La La Land had been announced and a number of thank you speeches had come from La La Land producers.

Here is that moment from ABC News and YouTube:

Here are your winners from the 89th Academy Awards:

Picture: Moonlight

Director: Damien Chazelle/La La Land
Actress: Emma Stone/La La Land

Actor: Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis/Fences
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight
Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight
Film Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Cinematography: La La Land

Original Score: La La Land
Original Song: City of Stars/La La Land
Animated Feature: Zootopia
Documentary: OJ: Made in America
Foreign Language Film: The Salesman
Production Design: La La Land
Costumes: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Makeup/Hair: Suicide Squad
Sound Mixing: Hacksaw Ridge

Sound Editing: Arrival
Visual Effects: The Jungle Book

Animated Short: Piper Pearl
Live Action Short: Sing
Documentary Short: The White Helmets



Moonlight wins three Oscars: Best Picture, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay
La La Land wins six Oscars: Best Actress, Director, Score, Song, Cinematography and Production Design
Manchester by the Sea wins two Oscars: Best Actor and Original Screenplay

Other Telluride 2016 wins Arrival for Best Sound Editing and The White Helmets for Best Short Documentary.

Telluride's 43rd iteration hosted films with 13 Oscar wins out of 42 nominations.

For the seventh straight year (and eighth of the last nine years)  the Oscar Best Picture winner has "premiered" for the first time on the North American continent at the Telluride film festival.

The FAC had a lackluster night going 15 of 24.  In the other categories, the "upset" winner listed in Thursday's post won and in six categories the winner was off the FAC altogether on Thursday.

I'm really re-thinking how or even if The FAC is viable in its current incarnation.

Past FAC results:

2016: 15/24
2015: 20/24
2014: 22/24
2013: 18/24 (25 tie in Sound Editing)
2012: 18/24
2011: 17/24
2010: 14/24

So, there's that.

Finally another huge shout out to Barry Jenkins and the entire Moonlight crew.  In all the years I've been writing about Telluride and the Oscars there has never been a truer expression of TFF in terms of the Oscar Best Picture winner than this at a number of levels and Barry's a good guy to boot.  You can't ask for a better ending than that despite the weird way that it went down.

Congratulations Barry and Mahershala and Tarell.

Now, it's time to return to the first purpose of this space which is to begin to puzzle out the films that will make their way to the San Juans over Labor Day weekend in six months time.

More on Thursday.


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The (Probably) Final FAC Predictions for Oscar #89 / Final Oscar Calls from Experts (Updated) / Late Breaking: Toronto Down to Downsize

Good Thursday to you...


THE (PROBABLY) FINAL FAC FOR OSCAR #89

We are just days away from the Oscars -on Sunday night on ABC- and here are the (probably) final predictions from The Film Awards Clearinghouse.  Barring some weird movement or unforeseen circumstance, this will be the last post from MTFB/FAC until Monday's regularly scheduled post.  In that, I'll do some semblance of analysis based on the results of Sunday's ceremony.

Today's predictions include updated data for the eight categories that have seemed to have been the most contentious over the past few weeks since nominations were announced:  Actor, Original Screenplay,Sound Editing, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and the three Short Form categories: Live Action, Animated and Documentary.  I also did a quick update on Best Picture.

On Oscar night itself, I'll be semi-live-tweeting.  Also probably a good deal of re-tweeting.  Check out my Twitter account @Gort2.


As always, The FAC uses the published predictions of the following experts to derive its picks:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  Categories that were deemed "Toss Ups" are indicated with ***

***LIVE ACTION SHORT
Winner: Enemies Interiors
Upset: Timecode
Comment: Since last week, a big surge for  Ennemis Interieurs puts it on top, marginally over Timecode.

***DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner; Joe's Violin
Upset: The White Helmets
Comment:  Last week's two leaders switch places but the metric still makes this a squeaky tight race.

***ANIMATED SHORT
Winner: Piper
Upset: Pearl
Comment:  Piper's lead has increased substantially over the past week.  Still not a lock by any means.


SOUND MIXING:
Winner: La La Land
Upset: Hacksaw Ridge

***SOUND EDITING
Winner: Hacksaw Ridge
Upset: La La Land

VISUAL EFFECTS
Winner; The Jungle Book
Upset: Rogue One

***MAKEUP/HAIR
Winner: Star Trek Beyond
Upset: A Man Called Ove

***COSTUMES
Winner: Jackie
Upset: La La Land
Comment:  Jackie has opened up a slight, but real,  lead in this category.  La La Land could still sneak a win here, however.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: La La Land
Upset: Arrival or Fantastic Beasts

ORIGINAL SONG
Winner: City of Stars/La La Land
Upset: Could come from Moana or Trolls

ORIGINAL SCORE
Winner: La La Land
Upset: Moonlight or Lion

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Winner: The Salesman
Upset: Toni Erdmann

ANIMATED FEATURE
Winner: Zootopia
Upset: Kubo and the Two Strings

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Winner: OJ: Made in America
Upset: 13th or I Am Not Your Negro

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: La La Land
Upset: Lion

FILM EDITING
Winner: La La Land
Upset: Arrival

***ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Winner: Manchester by the Sea
Upset: La La Land
Comment: Manchester has moved into a more secure position in the last week.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Winner: Moonlight
Upset: Arrival

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight
Upset: Dev Patel/Lion

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Viola Davis/Fences
Upset: Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea

***ACTOR
Winner: Denzel Washington/Fences
Upset: Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea
Comment: Still a whisker thin margin for Washington.

ACTRESS
Winner: Emma Stone/La La Land
Upset: Isabelle Huppert/Elle

DIRECTOR

Winner: Damien Chazelle / La La Land
Upset: Barry Jenkins/Moonlight

BEST PICTURE

Winner: La La Land
Upset: Moonlight
Comment: Other possible upset players: Hidden Figures, Manchester by the Sea and Lion

Expected win totals:

La La Land 9
Moonlight 2
Fences 2
 No other film with more than a single win.

TFF #43 films with 13 wins.

A last thought.  I'm feeling a bit of  an intuition that La La Land might actually upset in both Original Screenplay and Costumes.


 FINAL OSCAR CALLS FROM THE EXPERTS (UPDATED)

Here the FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS from various experts.  I WILL BE UPDATING this section through Sunday:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis (and Friends)/Awards Circuit

Awards Daily

Film School Rejects

Awards Watch Podcast

Gold Derby

Metacritic

Movie City News Gurus of Gold

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Indiewire Critics Survey

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience

Jason Osiason/Fantastic Film Fans




LATE BREAKING: TORONTO TO DOWNSIZE

There are multiple reports that the Torotno International Film Festival is going to shrink its feature film lineup by about 20% or from approximately 300 films down to 240ish.

Here's that story from:

The Hollywood Reporter

Indiewire

The Playlist



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A Look at "Interesting Categories" / Writers Guild Honors Telluride Film Time Two / Berlin Analysis / 300,000

Glad you're back from the weekend...hope it was painless...and sorry that today's post is a little later than usual...


A LOOK AT "INTERESTING CATEGORIES"

I the last post here, I divided the 24 Oscar categories into roughly thirds...roughly, and I labeled them Locks, Interesting and Toss Ups.  I'm updating those in the "Interesting" category today to see of there has been any movement into either of the categories or if they've remained "interesting".  On Thursday, I'll post The (Probably) Final FAC that will include updates of entire group of 24 categories with extra emphasis on puzzling out any movement in the Toss Up categories.

The nine "Interesting" categories are: Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Foreign Language Film, Documentary Feature, Animated Feature, Original Song, Film Editing, Cinematography and Production Design.  Here's the latest updated skinny on them.

Supporting Actor-Despite Dev Patel's win at BAFTA last week, the experts still have Mahershala Ali comfortably in the lead for his role in Moonlight.

Adapted Screenplay- Barry Jenkins and  Tarell Alvin McCraney's Moonlight script looks like it hasn't suffered any loss of momentum. Though the script for Lion has moved from the bottom spot in the experts ranking to a second place spot just in front of Arrival.

Foreign Language Film- The turn in this category because of the travel ban coming from the Trump administration continues to influence how the experts say Oscar voters are going to go in this category.  The Salesman maintains a recent solid lead with Toni Erdmann trailing off even a bit more over the past week and a bit of a surge for A Man Called Ove.

Documentary Feature- O.J.: Made in America maintains a solid lead with a bit of a surge for I am Not Your Negro.

Animated Feature- Kubo's BAFTA win has only eaten marginally into Zootopia's perceived dominance.

Original Song-  Apparently everyone clucks about vote splitting between the two nominated songs from La La Land and no one thinks that it's actually going to happen.  Exactly one of the nine experts I use says How Far I'll Go/Moana wins (Anne Thompson/Indiewire) and the rest say City of Stars/La La Land.

Film Editing- Hacksaw Ridge has moved into a more competitive position after its BAFTA win but every one of the Oscarologists listed above thinks La La Land wins this Sunday night.

Cinematography- Lion's ASC win doesn't seem to have this category very much.  Still very solid for La La Land.

Production Design- Fantastic Beasts' win at BAFTA has boosted it to the #2 spot in The FAC but a large majority of FAC experts still say La La Land.

So...

Despite my listing these nine categories as interesting and allowing for a week of contemplation, The FAC seems relatively confident that La La Land will win: Film Editing, Cinematography, Original Song and Production Design among these nine categories which, when added to what we think are already "Locked" wins: Picture, Director, Actress, Score and Sound Mixing put it at nine Oscars.

That means that one win in the Toss Up categories gets it to double digit wins, two ties the all time record and three sets a new record of 12 wins.  La La Land is in four Toss Up races: Best Actor, Original Screenplay, Costumes and Sound Editing.  Its chances of winning any of those in order of likelihood are: Original Screenplay, Costumes. Sound Editing and Actor is least likely.

Moonlight looks good for two Oscars for Ali as Supporting Actor and Jenkins and McCraney.

Again, fully a fully updated FAC is coming your way Thursday with the (probably) final predictions for the 89th Oscars.


WRITERS GUILD HONORS TELLURIDE FILMS TIMES TWO

It appears that TFF #43 was a good fest to be a writer that was a part of the lineup as the WGA named Moonlight by Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney the Best Original Script of the Years (it's in the Adapted category for Sunday night's Oscars) and Eric Heisserer's Arrival the Best Adapted Screenplay of the year in ceremonies held last night in both New York and Los Angeles.

Because of Moonlight's opposite categorization for Oscar, the WGA results likely don't tell us very much about what's going to happen Sunday night in the close, close, close Original category.  Had Manchester by the Sea or La La Land prevailed last night, we might have a had a clue but what we did find out is that Moonlight, as we have suspected, seems like a very good bet to win the Adapted category on Sunday night.

WGA  stories and analysis are here:

from Awards Daily.

from Variety.

from The Hollywood Reporter.


BERLIN ANALYSIS

Welp...The Berlinale is over with awards passed and critical notice taken.  Which should lead serious Telluride watchers to ponder what films from Berlin will appear on the TFF #44 program when it is announced on Aug. 31?

That there will be one, two or even three Berlin titles at TFF #43 seems very likely as that has been a trend for awhile.  Take note...

Berlin's presence in Telluride's recent programs:

2016: Fire at Sea (Golden Bear winner), Things to Come
2015: Taxi (Golden Bear winner), 45 Years, Ixcanul
2014: 50 Year Argument, '71, The Decent One, Diplomacy
2013: Gloria, Fifi Howls from Happiness, Le Maison de la Radio, Slow Food Story, On Death Row
2012: Barbara, A Royal Affair
2011: Forgiveness of Blood, Mondo Lux, Pina, A Separation (Golden Bear winner), Target, The Turin Horse
2010: Daniel Schmid, If I Want to Whistle I Whistle, The Illusionist
2009: Gigante, London River
2008: Happy-Go-Lucky, I've Lover You So Long
2007: The Counterfeiters

So what made waves at Berlin that we might think make the T-ride lineup?  Start with the Golden Bear winner Ildiko Enyedi's On Body and Soul.  The last two Golden Bear winners have played Telluride (Fire at Sea and Taxi) but On Body and Soul has no current U.S. distribution and we may be in a more common year where the Golden Bear does not play Telluride.

So what else?  Angneiska Holland's Spoor won the Silver Bear and Holland has been a Telluride participant before: Burning Bush, In Darkness.  So that seems like a real possibility.

Sebastian Lelio's A Fantastic Woman won the Screenplay prize and Lelio has a recent T-ride profile with Gloria in 2013.

Three other competition films to keep an eye out for are Volker Schlondorff's Return to Montauk,
Sally Potter's The Party and Aki Kaurismaki's The Other Side of Hope which win the prize for Best Direction.

I'll be keeping an eye on these five films (and perhaps one or two others) in terms of U.S. distribution and announced release dates here in the states.


300,000

Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse blew through its 300,000th view over the weekend.  Thanks to everyone for reading.  It's difficult for me to believe the overall number and that MTFB/FAC went from the 250,000 mark to 300,000 in less than six months (we hit 250,000 on Sept. 1. 2015).

Unbelievable.



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The FAC's Oscar Predix for Six Categories / BAFTA Names Its Winners

Monday...Monday...take that as you will...



THE FAC'S OSCAR PREDIX FOR SIX CATEGORIES

We're coming down to the home stretch of Oscar Season.  The BAFTA's were handed out in London last night (see below) and that's the last piece of evidence pointing us in any direction for what might happen on Oscar night itself.

Oscar final voting begins today and runs to Feb. 21.  Of course, the envelopes are opened on Feb. 26. with today's installment of The FAC I'll have completed a set of predictions for all 24 categories in the last week.  I'll update categories as we move through the next two weeks and have a final posting update in the Thursday, Feb. 23 posting.  That said...

Here are the Oscar winner predictions for the last six categories that The FAC hasn't addressed in this last week: Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and the Shorts: Animated, Documentary and Live Action.

As always The FAC uses the published predictions of the following experts to derive its picks:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) La La Land
2) Lion
3) Moonlight
4) Arrival
5) Silence

Comment: Despite Lion's ASC win last week, La La Land seems fairly secure for the win here.


COSTUMES

1) La La Land
2) Jackie
3) Florence Foster Jenkins
4) Fantastic Beasts
5) Allied

Comment: La La leads here but it's a tight race with Jackie.  This is one of about three or four categories (the others are probably Original Screenplay, Sound Editing and Cinematography) that will determine whether La La Land gets double-digit wins, ties for most Oscars won of all time (11) or, conceivably, breaks the record.



MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Star Trek Beyond
2) A Man Called Ove
3) Suicide Squad

Comment: A moderately close contest between Star Trek and Ove with the Treksters having a sight edge.


ANIMATED SHORT

1) Piper
2) Pearl
3) Borrowed Time
4) Blind Vaysha
5) Pear Cider and Cigarettes

Comment: This is perceived as a tight two horse race between Piper and Pearl.  Off The FAC metric...I wouldn't be stunned by a win from either or even Borrowed Time.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The White Helmets
2) Joe's Violin
3) 4.1 Miles
4) Extremis
5) Watani: My Homeland

Comment: A dead heat between The White Helmets and Joe's Violin and that's no exaggeration.  The two films were tied in The FAC metric with the tie broken in The White Helmets favor as it had one more pick at the top from The FAC professionals.  This Oscar could easily swing to either film.


LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Silent Nights
2) Sing
3) Timecode
4) Ennemis Interieurs
5) Le Femme et le TVG

Comment: The predictions in this category are all over the place.  Any of the five could win.

Should The FAC be 100% accurate, La La Land would win another two trophies and added to the previous FAC predictions over this past week would give it a total of 10 trophies on Oscar night: Picture, Director, Actress, Film Editing, Cinematography, Original Score, Original Song (City of Stars), Costumes, Production Design and Sound Mixing.

La La would miss, according to the FAC, in Original Screenplay, Sound Editing, Best Actor and its other Original Song nomination.  The loss to itself for Best Song means that 13 Oscars are the ceiling for La La and the loss of Ryan Gosling in the Best Actor category seems all but certain (to either Denzel Washington or Casey Affleck).  That means that La La Land has to run the table of every one of its remaining nominations to set the all time record which seems a tall order.

I've been saying for a long while that I think La La Land ends the night with nine Oscars.  A great night, but not record setting.  Still, it would be the most since 2003's Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.

Currently The FAC has La La Land winning 10 Oscars.

Moonlight wins two.
Fences wins two.

Single Oscar winning films look to be:

Manchester by the Sea
Zootopia
O.J.: Made in America
The Salesman
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
Star Trek Beyond

And the Shorts: Piper, The White Helmets and Silent Nights.

Total Oscars going to TFF #43 films: 14.


BAFTA NAMES ITS WINNERS

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (sometimes referenced as the British Oscars) awarded their accolades for the 2016 film year last night (which was late afternoon here in the states).

Damien Chazelle's La La Land did well but it wasn't the blowout that the Golden Globes night was for the film.  La La Land picked up five of the 11 BAFTA's it was nominated for.  Of course, the five wins did include the biggest prize of the night: Best Picture.  La La Land also won for Chazelle's direction and Emma Stone won Best Actress.  It also won for Score and Cinematography.

Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea won two honors for Original Screenplay and for Casey Affleck as Best Actor.

Denis Villeneuve's Arrival won the award for Best Sound (a trophy that many thought La La Land might well pick up.

Barry Jenkins' Moonlight surprisingly went home empty-handed.  The film had been nominated for four BAFTAs.

Lion was the other surprise of the night winning two awards for Dev Patel as Best Supporting Actor and also winning for Adapted Screenplay.

Major (Oscar analogous categories) winners here with TFF #43 films in Bold.

Picture: La La Land
Director: Damien Chazelle/La La Land
Actress: Emma Stone/La La Land
Actor: Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis/Fences
Supporting Actor: Dev Patel/Lion
Adapted Screenplay: Lion
Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
Documentary: 13th
Foreign Language: Son of Saul (TFF #42)
Animated Feature: Kubo and the Two Strings
Original Music: La La Land
Cinematography: La La Land
Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Production Design: Fantastic Beasts
Costumes: Jackie
Makeup/Hair: Florence Foster Jenkins
Sound: Arrival
Visual Effects; The Jungle Book


What does any of this mean for Oscar night?
Does it mean that La La Land is likely to fall short in film editing, production, design, costume or film editing?
Does Moonlight get shut out on Feb. 26th?

Most of the pundits seem to think that the BAFTA results might show a smallish trend away from the La La Land avalanche but that it's still solid for a number of wins including picture and director.  It does seem less likely that it will tie or break the record of winning 11 trophies.

BAFTA coverage is here:

from Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

from Anne Thompson/Indiewire

from Pete Hammond/Deadline

from Paul Sheehan/Gold Derby

from Oliver Lyttleton/The Playlist

from Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience



That's a wrap for Monday.  More to come on Thursday...


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More Predicted Oscar Winners from The FAC / Oscar Nominees for Cinematography and Film Editing / Big Talk from Directors / Could We See TONY Erdmann at a Future Telluride?

Welcome to Thursday...

MORE PREDICTED OSCAR WINNERS FROM THE FAC

On Monday, The FAC took its first stab at predicting the winners of the Oscar in 12 categories.  In today's post I continue down that road with a look at six additional categories: Original Score, Original Song, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.



As always The FAC uses the published predictions of the following experts to derive its picks:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Telluride #43 films are in Bold.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) La La Land
2) Moonlight
3) Lion
4) Jackie
5) Passengers

Comment:  Looks like La La's to lose.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) City of Stars/La La Land
2) How Far I'll Go/Moana
3) Audition/La La Land
4) Can't Stop the Feeling/Trolls
5) The Empty Chair/Jim: The James Foley Story

Comment: I still think the Moana song could win this despite The FAC metric.


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) La La Land
2) Arrival
3) Fantastic Beasts
4) Hail. Caesar
5) Passengers

Comment: La La Land seems to be the prohibitive favorite.


BEST SOUND EDITING

1) Hacksaw Ridge
2) La La Land
3) Arrival
4) Deepwater Horizon
5) Sully

Comment:  This category could tell the tale in as far as La La Land's quest to tie or break the record for most Oscar wins ever.  The record is 11.   La La is nominated for 14 but at the maximum can only win 13 because of the double Best Song nominations.  Hacksaw is a solid favorite but certainly doesn't have a lock on the trophy.

BEST SOUND MIXING

1) La La Land
2) Hacksaw Ridge
3) Arrival
4) Rogue One
5) 13 Hours

Comment;  Back to solid La La Land ground here.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Jungle Book
2) Rogue One
3) Doctor Strange
4) Deepwater Horizon
5) Kubo and the Two Strings

Comment:  Looks solid for Jungle Book.


In these six categories La La Land is leading for four Oscars and Hacksaw Ridge and The Jungle Book would get one each.  Added to Monday's totals, The FAC has La La Land at eight wins with Moonlight at two and Fences at two.   Manchester by the Sea would be the other TFF #43 film with a win.

I'll have The FAC's look at the final six categories on Monday.



OSCARS NOMINEES FOR CINEMATOGRAPHY AND FILM EDITING

Here are a couple pf profiles of the cinematographers from La La Land and Moonlight both of whom are Oscar nominated for their work:

About DP Linus Sandgren of La La Land from Indiewire.

And focusing on editor Joi McMillon who cut Moonlight also from Indiewire.



BIG TALK FROM DIRECTORS (FOUR FROM TFF #43)



The Film Stage posted a 2 and 1/2 hour round table of this year's DGA nominees: Chazelle, Jenkins, Lonergan and Villeneuve who were featured at TFF #43 as well as Garth Davis of Lion.  That massive discussion can be found  Here from YouTube:

The Film Stage post is here.




AND FINALLY...COULD WE SEE TONY ERDMANN AT A FUTURE TELLURIDE? (yes, I spelled it Ton-y on purpose because I'll bet they Americanize it that way)

Image via ComingSoon.net

Breaking news the last two days:  There will apparently be an American remake of Maren Ade's Toni Erdmann to star Jack Nicholson and Kristen Wiig.  Reports say the project is at Paramount and is looking for a writer and director.

You have to wonder if a film that will almost certainly be Nicholson;s last major role might not be considered for a spot at T-ride which would be both weird and kind of fitting as the original Toni Erdmann screened for the first time in North America at last fall's soiree.

Lots of coverage here for the announcement of the new version:

Variety,  The Film Stage  and Hollywood Elsewhere.





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Producers Salute La La Land / Editors Endorse La La Land and Arrival / Hidden Figures Wins SAG Ensemble / Oscar Related

Welcome to Monday as January is on the brink of limping to a conclusion...

Mary Tyler Moore and John Hurt.  Two very different actors and great in different ways but still great nonetheless.  For fun, imagine a two headed coin with MTM's Mary Richards on one side and John Hurt's Winston Smith from 1984 on the other.  Quite a heads and tails, eh?


PRODUCERS SALUTE LA LA LAND

The Producers Guild of America awarded La La Land its top prize for a feature film on Saturday night.  The PGA Award is considered a good barometer of the Best Picture race as it matches up slight better than 2/3 of the time.  The PGA also uses the same preferential balloting process as The Academy which adds another layer of insight.  Other TFF #43 films that were among The PGA nominees: Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight and Arrival.

Here is substantial coverage of the PGA awards presentation including some analysis concerning the Oscar implications of La La Land's win:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Dave McNary/Variety

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Gregory Ellwood/The Playlist



EDITORS ENDORSE LA LA LAND AND ARRIVAL

The American Cinema of Editors handed their highest honors for film editing to Damien Chazelle's La La Land as a comedy edited by Tom Cross while Denis Villeneuve's Arrival was named the best edited drama edited by Joe Walker.

OJ: Made in America was named best edited documentary and Zootopia was named the best edited animated feature.

Reportage is here:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Bill Desowitz/Indiewire



HIDDEN FIGURES WINS SCREEN ACTORS ENSEMBLE

A couple of late show surprises will serve to keep two Oscar races interesting.  Denzel Washington won the SAG Award for Best Actor last night for his role in Fences and Hidden Figures was the surprise winner in the Best Ensemble category.  

Washington's win upset Casey Affleck who has been considered the favorite through a good deal of this Oscar season for his performance in Manchester by the Sea.

The Hidden Figures win wasn't a total shocker but both Moonlight and Fences had been considered the more likely winner in that category.

The rest of the film acting categories went as expected with TFF #43 attendees winning in two categories-Best Actress and Supporting Actor.  The list:

Supporting Actress: Viola Davis/Fences

Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight

Lead Actress: Emma Stone/La La Land

Lead Actor: Denzel Washington/Fences

Best Ensemble: Hidden Figures

The Best Stunt Ensemble for Film: Hacksaw Ridge

Coverage and analysis of last night's Scree Actors Guild Awards:

from Pete Hammond of Deadline.com

From Anne Thompson at Indiewire



OSCAR RELATED

The trailer for the 89th Academy awards is out and our friend Alex Billington's FirstShowing.net has it.  Check the trailer and Alex's story here.

Meanwhile, Variety-In Contention's Kristopher Tapley analyzes the Oscar race now that we know the nominees and assesses whether Damien Chazelle's La La Land has a shot at the all time record for wins after tying the all time record for nominations.  Take a look at his analysis here.

Entertainment Weekly's Devan Coggan takes a deep dive in the numbers of Oscar #89 here.

Key dates remaining:

Feb. 4th- Directors Guild Award
Feb. 12th- BAFTA Awards
Feb. 13th- Oscar final voting begins
Feb. 21st- Oscar voting concludes
Feb. 26th- Oscars Awards ceremony



That will do it for this Monday.  I'll have another post up on Thursday, so come on back for that.

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Telluride Sets a Record: Oscar Nominations with a Bit of Commentary / Frantz Leads in France / Now What?

Good Thursday to you...

TELLURIDE SETS A RECORD: OSCAR NOMINATIONS WITH A BIT OF COMMENTARY

Telluride #43 film nominations are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

BEST DIRECTION

Damien Chazelle/La La Land

Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge

Barry Jenkins/Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea

Denis Villeneuve/Arrival

BEST ACTRESS

Isabelle Huppert/Elle
Ruth Negga/Loving

Natalie Portman/Jackie

Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins

Emma Stone/La La Land

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling/La La Land

Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington/Fences

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis/Fences

Naomie Harris/Moonlight

Nicole Kidman/Lion

Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali/Moonlight

Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel/Lion

Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Arrival

Fences

Hidden Figures
Lion

Moonlight

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

20^th Century Women

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

FILM EDITING

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Moonlight

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arrival

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Silence

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Land of Mine

A Man Called Ove

Tanna

Toni Erdmann

The Salesman

ANIMATED FEATURE

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

Zootopia

DOCUMENTARY

13^th

Fire at Sea

I am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

OJ: Made in America

ORIGINAL SCORE

Jackie

La La Land

Lion
Moonlight

Passengers

ORIGINAL SONG

Audition/La La Land

Can’t Stop the Feeling/Trolls

City of Stars/La La Land

How Far I’ll Go/Moana

The Empty Chair/James Foley Story

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Arrival

Fantastic Beasts

Hail, Caesar

La La Land

Passengers

COSTUMES

Allied

Fantastic Beasts

Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie

La La Land

MAKEUP/HAIR

A Man Called Ove

Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

SOUND EDITING

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Sully

SOUND MIXING
13 Hours

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One

VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon

Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Kubo and the Two Strings

Rogue One

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Ennemis Interiuers
Le Femme et le TVG

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The White Helmets
Joe's Violin
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Watani: My Homeland

ANIMATED SHORT
Piper
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear and Cider Cigarettes
Pearl

Comment:

La La Land leads all films with 14  nominations

Arrival had 8

Moonlight had 8

Manchester by the Sea had 6

The total of "Telluride" nominations was 42 which makes this the most Oscar-y year for Telluride since I've been keeping track and probably since the beginning of the fest.

Oh, and it almost certainly means that on Oscar night that Best Picture will have come through Telluride once again continuing a trend that has been true every year, except for 2009. since Slumdog Millionaire in 2008.

08-Slumdog
09- The Hurt Locker
10- The King's Speech
11- The Artist
12- Argo
13- 12 Years a Slave
14- Birdman
15- Spotlight

Will/Can La La Land surpass Slumdog's haul of 8 Oscars?  It's possible.  I wrote last week that, should it hit the 14 nomination plateau (tying the all time Oscar record along with Titanic and All About Eve) that, at least at that moment, The FAC was pointing toward nine wins for the film.

Early favorites for Oscar include: Actress: Stone, Actor: Affleck, Supporting Actress: Davis, Supporting Actor: Ali

Other favorites by film:

La La Land: Picture, Direction, Film Editing, Cinematography, Score, Song, Production Design and Sound Mixing (Total -9)

Moonlight: Adapted Screenplay (Total-2)

Manchester by the Sea-Original Screenplay (2)

Toni Erdmann: Foreign Language

The White Helmets: Short Doc


For non-Telluride films:

Zootopia: Animated Feature

OJ: Made in America: Documentary

Jackie: Costumes

Florence Foster Jenkins: Makeup/Hair

Hacksaw Ridge: Sound Editing

The Jungle Book: Visual Effects

Silent Nights: Live Action Short

Piper: Animated Short



Other nominations for TFF #43 films came individually for Sully, Toni Erdmann, Fire at Sea and shorts: The White Helmets, Extremis and 4.1 Miles.

The FAC went 100 of 122 for an 82% rate of correct predictions.  It was perfect in Best Picture (9/9), Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Animated Feature and Costumes. In categories where The FAC missed one or more nominees the sixth film listed made the grade in nine categories: Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Foreign Language Film, Sound Editing, Visual Effects, Live Action Short, Animated Short, Makeup/Hair (actually that's the #4 spot) and Production Design.

The biggest surprises to me were the Amy Adams miss in Best Actress and also the miss by Inner Workings in Animated Short.  I was also surprised that Passengers popped up in Original Score and Production Design.

I have linked analysis from the experts here:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Eric Kohn/Indiwire

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson/Screen Talk (podcast)

FRANTZ LEADS IN FRANCE

The French version of The Oscar...The Cesar nominations were announced this week and TFF #43 film Frantz led the way with 11 nominations including Best Picture.  Frantz was tied for the most nominations by Elle.  Among Elle's 11 nominations was a Best Actress nod for past Telluride tribute recipient Isabelle Huppert.  Huppert was featured at last September's fest with with a screening of Things to Come.

Kenneth Lonergan's 6 time Oscar nominated Manchester by the Sea was nominated for Best Foreign Film.  Both La La Land and Moonlight weren't eligible for that category as they didn't or won't open in France until after the first of the year.  Other TFF # films nominated for Foreign Language Film were Graduation and Toni Erdmann.  Fire at Sea was nominated for Best Documentary.

Complete Cesar coverage is here from Awards Watch.

NOW WHAT?

Well...the Oscar nominations are in and as you can see above, it was a very successful year for Telluride in that context.  Since the fest closed on Labor Day, thus space has been largely focused on the release of the films that played the fest and the Oscar prospects for them.  Now we are on to the Oscar #89 end game over the next month the culminates with the ceremony itself on Feb. 26th.  As I have done in the past, The FAC will continue to handicap the field right up until then.  

But it's also time to begin looking forward.  

The Sundance fest has moved past its half way mark and the presence at TFF this last year of Manchester by the Sea and The Eagle Huntress, which both played at Sundance last year, makes me wonder if that situation, which admittedly has been very rare in the past, might be a little less rare going forward.  This would mean that we might have to pay a little more attention to the films that make waves in Utah.

When the Oscars conclude, there will be a slew of Oscar #90 speculative pieces.  We'll need to examine those.  The Berlin Fest looms next month.  That is often a source of a few films that make their way to T-ride and Cannes speculation will begin to ramp up ahead of its May date.  We'll need to pay attention to the critical response and awards as a way of sniffing out potential Telluride choices.

Once Cannes is completed, we get into serious Telluride speculation and prediction and look for clues, rumors and signs from the media as well as what we can discern from what's known or suspected about Toronto, Venice and New York's Fests.

That's where we'll be going right up to Labor Day weekend.  Join the ride!

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