Oscar Update: Best Actress / Full Trailer for Your (Bee Gees) Broken Heart / Nomadland Odds and Ends / Never Gonna Snow Again Picked Up by Kino Lorber / Berlin Looming

OSCAR UPDATE: BEST ACTRESS

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Actress updated since I last posted this category on  Oct. 26th.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.

UPDATE: BEST ACTRESS

1) Frances McDormand/Nomdaland (2)

2) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman (3)

3) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (1)

4) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman (5)

5) Sophia Loren/The Life Ahead (9)

6) Kate Winslet/Ammonite (7)

7) Michelle Pfeiffer/French Exit (8)

8) Andra Day/The People (10)

9) Amy Adams/Hillbilly Elegy (6)

10) Meryl Streep/The Prom (-)

Others: Elizabeth Moss/Invisible Woman, Sienna Miller/ Wander Darkly

Hot: Vanessa Kirby, Sophia Loren, Andra Day, Meryl Streep

Not: Michelle Pfeiffer, Amy Adams

Notes:  Currently the top three candidates are bunched very tightly and are all looking like locks.  The rest of the filed for the final two nominations is also tightly bunched but way, way back of McDormand, Kirby and Davis.

FULL TRAILER FOR YOUR (BEE GEES) BROKEN HEART

HBO Max dropped a new full length trailer for the Frank Marshall documentary The Bee Gees: How Do You Mend a Broken Heart this past weekend.  This follows up a teaser that I had here back on Nov. 2nd.

Here's the look at the new 2 1/2 minute trailer from YouTube:

NOMADLAND ODDS AND ENDS

Chloe Zhao's Nomadland won a big honor this week within the craft of cinematography at the EnergaCamerimage Film Festival Golden Frog Award as well as FIPRESCI Jury Prize honors.  The fest honors the best in international cinematography each year.  Joker won the Golden Frog last year.

I have linked coverage of the full scope of the awards from Variety here.

Meanwhile, Tom Bruggemann, writing for Indiewire, had an interesting article up this week about how Searchlight has taken something of a traditionalist approach (if such a thing is even imaginable in the age of Covid-19) to the Awards campaign for Nomadland.

The film is thought to be strong contender for nominations for Picture, Director (Zhao), Actress (McDormand), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Film Editing with outside shots for Supporting Actress (Swankie) and Supporting Actor (Stratharin).

Here's Bruggemann's article.

NEVER GONNA SNOW AGAIN PICKED UP BY KINO LORBER

Polish feature, Never Gonna Snow Again, a selection for what would have been TFF #47 as well as Poland's submission for consideration for Best International Feature, has been acquired for North American distribution by Kino Lorber.

The film was a Venice premiere where it won the Premio Fondazione Fai Persona Lavoro Ambiente Award.  It was also screened as a pert of the BFI London Film Festival among others.

Never Gonna Snow Again was directed by Małgorzata Szumowska and co-directed by Michał Englert.  It is described by IMDb:

"Zhenia, a Russian-speaking immigrant from the East works as a masseur in Poland and becomes a guru-like figure in a wealthy gated community where his clients live."

I have linked the announcement of acquisition news here from Screen Daily.

BERLIN LOOMING

Organizers of the Berlin Film Festival have announced plans for a stripped down but still physical version of the fest.  Deadline reports that the festival is currently dated for Feb. 11-21, 2021.

From the Andreas Wideman/Deadline article:

"A festival spokesperson told us: “The Berlinale still plans to take place as a physical event in February. Press screenings and public screenings will take place, as always, in the cinemas, but access will be possible only with pre-booked tickets for allocated seats."

Berlin often is the premiere festival for a couple of films that ultimately become choices for Telluride.

The complete Deadline article is linked here.

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Lists and Lists / Seeing The Way I See It

LISTS AND LISTS

I've done all the comparisons and have what I believe to be an accurate list of where the announced TFF #47 films would have or will be playing as far as other film fests are concerned.  This, of course, does not include films (save for Nomadland) that have yet to be announced for the New York Film Fest.  I'm expecting we'll have that information this week.  It will also be interesting to see what's announced for and if films are announced for the BFI/London Film Fest as well as the American Film Institute Film Fest.

Here's the rundown of all of the TFF #47 films that have other film fest connections at this point:

Ammonite:TIFF, Cannes

Charlatan: Berlin

Concrete Cowboy: TIFF

The Duke: Venice

The Father: TIFF, Sundance

Fireball: TIFF

Ibrahim: Cannes

Mainstream: Venice

Mandibules: Venice

MLK/FBI: TIFF

Never Gonna Snow Again: Venice

Nomadland: TIFF, Venice, NYFF (centerpiece)

Notturno: TIFF, Venice

There Is No Evil: Berlin

The Truffle Hunters: Cannes, Sundance

So 15 of the 29 TFF #47 feature titles have been chosen by other major film fests.

SEEING THE WAY I SEE IT

After the reveal that Dawn Porter's The Way I See it, a documentary about former White House photographer Pete Souza, Focus Features has released a trailer as well as a poster (as you can see above).  The IMDb description for the film is as follows:

"Former Chief Official White House Photographer Pete Souza's journey as a person with top secret clearance and total access to the President."

Frequent Telluride Film Fest guest/visitor Laura Dern is among the producers of the film.

Here's the newly released trailer via YouTube:

Focus is saying that the film will be released in theaters in September.

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Oscar's Uncertainty / IFC Films Acquires Berlin Title / Animated Lineup at Annecy

OSCAR'S UNCERTAINTY

As of this moment the 2021 Oscar telecast os still set for Feb. 28th but a Variety story Tuesday suggested that there is some notion within the Academy that the ceremony might need to be postponed.

Mark Malkin wrote:

"The 93rd Oscars aren’t until February, but the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is considering postponing the big night, according to multiple sources.

The sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, say definitive plans are far from being concrete at this juncture. The telecast is currently set for Feb. 28, 2021, on ABC.

“It’s likely they’ll be postponed,” one of the sources familiar with the matter told Variety."

There seemed to be a lot of pushback on Twitter to the notion from a number of industry outlets.  Nevertheless, the story underscores the lack of certainty within the film business as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.

One other notable tidbit from the Malkin story:

"It’s unclear if postponing the Oscars will also mean that the Academy will allow films released after the year-end deadline to qualify for the 2021 Oscars."

The complete story is here.

In a semi related story, the Directors and Producers Guilds have adjusted their eligibility criteria to more closely correspond with decisions made earlier by the Academy.  Variety also has that story here.


IFC FILMS ACQUIRES BERLIN TITLE

Margaret Qualley in My Salinger Year (via IMDb).

IFC Films  has acquired Phillippe Falardeau's My Salinger Year for U.S. distribution.  Normally this kind of news would land the film smack in the middle of my Telluride speculation.  It's a distributor with some TFF history and a film from the Berlin fest (it was the opening film) which always seems to land a TFF spot or two.  It stars the red hot Margaret Qualley and Sigourney Weaver (who would make a tempting tribute candidate).

But...who knows in the current climate.

The Hollywood Reporter has the story linked here.

My Salinger Year's IMDb page is here.


ANIMATED LINEUP AT ANNECY

The Annecy Animated Film Fest which has chosen to present as an online fest has announced its lineup according to The Hollywood Reporter.  As mentioned before, Annecy films occasionally find their way onto the T-ride lineup and that could still be true regardless of ANnecy's decision to go online.

You can find the announced films in competition and contretemp competition linked here .


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And the Golden Bear Goes to... / The Critics Berlin / More Additions to TFF History

AND THE GOLDEN BEAR GOES TO...

Mohammad Rasoulof's There Is No Evil took the top prize. the Golden Bear, from the just concluded Berlin International Films Festival.  The award came from the Jury led this year by Jeremy Irons.

Rasoulof was a recipient of a tribute from the Telluride Film Festival in 2013 during TFF #40.  That included a screening of Manuscripts Don't Burn.  Rasoulof was back in Telluride in 2017 with A Man of Integrity.

Rasoulof was not allowed to attend the Berlin Fest by the Iranian government.

The Golden Bear win doesn't guarantee that There Is No Evil ends up at Telluride but it also likely doesn't harm its potential.  The last Golden Bear winner to play TFF was Fire at Sea in 2016.  Other recent Golden Bear winners that went on to play TFF include Asghar Farhadi's A Separation and Jafar Panahi's Taxi.


THE CRITICS BERLIN

Returning to the massive database of critical response to the films screened at Berlin that is compiled by Reini Urban; here is the final look at films that I have highlighted as possible considerations for TFF #47  (on a 10 point scale)

Pinocchio 7.39
The Woman Who Ran 7.17
Undine 6.89
There Is No Evil 6.76
Charlatan 6.20
The Salt of Tears 5.49
Irradiated 5.43
Siberia 4.95

The complete rundown is here.

Metacritic also had a critical compilation post over the weekend for Berlin films and among the films they mentioned from the above list were (on a 100 point scale):

There Is No Evil 79
The Woman Who Ran 81
Charlatan 65
Undine 69
The Salt of Tears 57

Metacritic's article is linked here.


And finally, Indiewire's Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson talk about the Berlinale in this week's episode of their podcast Screen Talk.  Both Pinocchio and Undine are specifically mentioned.

The link to Screen Talk is here.

Thompson, Kohn and David Ehrlich collaborated to also publish an article detailing the films that they thought were the 10 best of Berlin.  That list included: Charlatan, Last and First Men, Pinocchio, There Is No Evil and The Woman Who Ran.

I have linked that article here.

Last word on Berlin, for now...look out for Johann Johannsson's Last and First Men.  The late Icelandic composer's first attempt at directing a feature film.  Johannsson was Oscar nominated for the scores for Sicario and The Theory of Everything.  Just got a feeling.


MORE ADDITIONS TO TFF HISTORY

I added the 2011, 2012 and 2013 Telluride Film Festivals to the Extended Telluride History Part Two: 1996-Present page. 

2011 notable films included: Albert Nobbs, The Artist, A Dangerous Method, Into the Abyss, A Separation, Shame and We Need to Talk About Kevin.

2012: Notable films included:The Act of Killing, Amour, Argo, The Central Park Five, Frances Ha, No, Rust and Bone and Stories We Tell.

2013 notable films included: 12 Years a Slave, All Is Lost, Blue Is the Warmest Color, Gloris. Gravity, Ida, Inside Llewyn Davis, Manuscripts Don't Burn, The Missing Picture, Nebraska, The Past, Prisoners and Under the Skin.


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The Critics Weigh In on Berlin / The History Continues

THE CRITICS WEIGH IN ON BERLIN

The Berlin International Film Festival continues apace toward its Sunday conclusion and the announcement of award winners in various categories including the announcement of this year's winner of the Golden Bear award to the Best Film in the competition section. 

As BIFF has passed its half way point, here's a look at the critical consensus for some of the titles playing there that, at least initially, have some TFF #47 potential:

Matteo Garrone's Pinocchio 7.32 (on a 10 point scale)
Hong Sang-soo's The Woman Who Ran 7.24
Agnieszka Holland's Charlatan 7.00
Christian Petzold's Undine 6.79
Philippe Garrel's The Salt of Tears 5.45
Abel Ferrara's Siberia 5.09


Still not charting with Reni Urban's critics collective:

Rithy Panh's Irradiated
Mohammad Rasoulof's There Is No Evil


The complete list is linked here.


THE HISTORY CONTINUES

Since Monday's post I have added the text for the 37th Telluride Film Festival Extended History entry on.  2010's festival boasted such titles as:

127 Hours
Another Year
Black Swan
The King's Speech
Tabloid

Guests at YFF #37 included:

Danny Boyle
Colin Firth
James Franco
Andrew Garfield
Ed Harris
Laura Linney
Carey Mulligan
Alexander Payne
Geoffrey Rush

Check out 2010 as well as the other recently added years (2006-2009) on the Expanded History Page 1996-Present.


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Notes from Berlin / Now There Is More History / The Critical Reaction to Berlin Films

NOTES FROM BERLIN

The 70th Berlin International Film Festival is in full swing and runs until Sunday.  I have linked some posts from reporters covering the festival about specific films I have my eye on as possible players in as far as TFF #47 might be concerned.

From The Hollywood Reporter here are looks at:

Rithy Pahn's Irradiated

Mohammad Rasoulof's There Is No Evil

Both films are set to bow in Germany on Friday.

Additionally, prior to its Berlin play, producers released a trailer for Philippe Garrel's The Salt of Tears.  Here that is via YouTube:

ALso releasing a trailer for its Berlin appearance is Able Ferrara's Siberia.  That is linked here also from YouTube:

NOW THERE IS MORE HISTORY

After a good deal of procrastination, I have started the expansion of the Expanded History of the Telluride Film Festival.  For quite some time I have had the years from 2006 to the present represented in the Expanded History through links to the programs for those years that are housed at the Official TFF website.

I've been saying for some time that I would get the information from those years on the Expanded History page formatted as I have all of the years of the festival and just have been sluggish in getting that accomplished.

However, this past week, I actually cranked that up and added the text for 2006-2009.  If you go to the Expanded History 1996-Present page you'll see that info displayed.  Over the next few weeks I plan to get the rest of the last 13 years worth of text on that page as well.

Take look!

AND FINALLY...THE CRITICAL REACTION TO BERLIN FILMS

As has been the case for a few years, I'm looking at the critical tracking of films that play at the Berlin fest to get a sense of which films might be catching the eye of any Telluride programmer that might be in Germany at the this moment. 

To that end I'm checking the critical consensus site:

http://cannes-ratings.herokuapp.com/Berlinale2020

Thus far, and it is incredibly early in as far as the critics' responses are concerned, the top film that I've had my eye on in terms of the critical combo is Matteo Garrone's Pinocchio.  Christian Ptezold's Undine is also doing well in early critical response. 

I'll check back in with the consensus on Thursday.


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Anticipation / Oscar 2021 Thoughts / Sale Time / And Now: Berlin...

ANTICIPATION

The Hollywood Reporter has put together their list of 77 "most anticipated" films for 2020 and it continues the trend begun at the end of the 2019 to offer some films that one would think will be under consideration and/or will be offered as a possible choice for TFF #47.

THR has organized their list chronologically, at least to the extent possible.  Some highly anticipated films are not yet dated for release and are either listed as TBD's or not listed at all.

Soooo...TFF #47 options?  In chronological order:

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (10/7)

Stillwater (11/6)

Dune 12/18

News of the World (12/25)

Mank (TBD)

Hillbilly Elegy (TBD)

On the Rocks (TBD)

Half tempted to include Ridley Scott's The Last Duel and Ben Wheatley's Rebecca remake.

The complete THR list is here.

OSCAR 2021 THOUGHTS

Variety's Brent Lang and Mark Malkin got into the early Oscar prediction sweepstakes this week with an article posted on Tuesday.  They peer into their crystal ball to contemplate which films might be in serious contention for Academy Award glory a year from now.

Consequently, here's a look at their list of films through the prism of what seems the most likely Telluride players in the order presented in the article:

Ron Howard's Hillbilly Elegy

Sofia Coppola's On the Rocks

Joel Coen's MacBeth

Aaron Sorkin's The Trial of the Chicago 7

Francis Lee's Ammonite

Kimberly Pierce's This Is Jane

David Fincher's Mank

The complete Variety post is linked here.

SALE TIME

As a public service, this reminder that TFF #47 passes go on sale on Sunday, March 1.  Here's the reminder directly from the TFF #47 website:

AND NOW:  BERLIN...

The 70th Berlin International Film Festival is opening tonight and will run through Mar. 1st.  And if past os prologue, you can expect that a film or two that will premiere there will probably end up in southwest Colorado in early September.  

Last year it was Varda by Agnes.  In 2018 it was Dovlatov.  In 2017: Hostages and The Other Side of Hope.  2016: Fire at Sea and Things to Come.

The 2020 edition hs a number of films that offer tantalizing possibilities for Telluride programmers.

Indiewire posted a list of 15 films that will play the Berlinale that they say are Their most anticipated.  Among that list, I can point to a few that could be TFF #47 potentials:

Agnieszka Holland's Charlatan

Rithy Pahn's Irradiated

Matteo Garrone's Pinocchio

Phillipe Garrel's The Salt of Tears

Abel Ferrara's Siberia

Christian Petzold's Undine

You can check out all of Indiewire's Berlin Most Anticipated by clicking here.

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Oscar's Predicted Winners: The Big Eight / Another List of the Most Anticipated / Berlin Films Revealed

OSCAR'S PREDICTED WINNERS: THE BIG EIGHT

We're down to a week and a half to get to Oscar night, Feb. 9th.  With it bearing down, here's where I have predicted winners in the "Big Eight" categories.  As usual, I have indicated TFF #46 films in Bold.

BEST FILM

1) 1917
2) Parasite
3) Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
4) The Irishman
5) Jojo Rabbit
6) Joker
7) Marriage Story
8) Little Women
9) Ford v Ferrari

Notes:  I could still change this prediction easily when I get to FINAL PREDICTIONS on Sunday, Feb. 9th.  Despite 1917's PGA and DGA wins and Parasite's SAG Ensemble win, I still think this is a close race between those two films and I also think there's still a reasonable set of circumstances by which Once Upon a Time wins Best Picture.  Parasite remains TFF #46's best chance to have hosted the Best Picture winner.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Sam Mendes/1917
2) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite
3) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time...
4) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman
5) Todd Phillips/Joker

Notes: It's a two horse race between Mendes and Bong.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy
2) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story
3) Charlize Theron/Bombshell
4) Cynthia Erivo/Harriet
5) Saoirse Ronan/Little Women

Notes: It's Zellweger's to lose and she's not going to lose.

BEST ACTOR

1) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
2) Adam Driver/Marriage Story
3) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory
4) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes
5) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time...

Notes: Phoenix is a lock.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story
2) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell
4) Florence Pugh/Little Women
5) Kathy Bates/Richard Jewell

Notes: Get used to saying: "Oscar winner Laura Dern".

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...
2) Joe Pesci/The Irishman
3) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
4) Al Pacino/The Irishman
5) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes

Notes: Pitt might the most locked in the very locked acting categories.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Parasite
2) Once Upon a Time...
3) Marriage Story
4) 1917
5) Knives Out

Notes:  As much as there is no suspense in the acting categories...there is a ton of uncertainty here. Parasite and OUATIH are very, very tight and Marriage Story wouldn't be a huge surprise.  This will be one of those categories that separate Oscar pools...not that anyone bets on this kind of thing.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Little Women
2) Jojo Rabbit
3) The Irishman
4) Joker
5) The Two Popes

Notes: Just like Original Screenplay...this category is a barn burner as well.  Lots of thought that this is where The Academy awards Greta Gerwig in part because of her missing out on a directing nomination.  Jojo and The Irishman are right there, though.

Overall 14 of the 23 TFF #46 films' nominations are in these eight categories.



ANOTHER LIST OF THE MOST ANTICIPATED

This list of "most anticipated films for 2020 comes from Criterion.  THe films listed there are grouped in a variety of ways.  Some are grouped by distributor, some by country of origin and there are are methods.  Among the films listed, these feel most like TFF #47 options:

The Card Counter/Paul Schrader
Dune/Denis Villenueve
Untitled Velvet Underground Project/Todd Haynes
On the Rocks/Sophia Coppola
Mank/David Fincher
I'm Thinking of Ending Things/Charlie Kaufman
Blonde/Andrew Dominik
MacBeth/Joel Coen
Nomadland/Chloe Zhao
Ammonite/Frances Lee
Bergman Island/Mia Hansen Love
Charlatan/Agnieszka Holland

Note: Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch, which I have mentioned on a couple of these "Most Anticipated" lists has slipped off of them as it was announced yesterday that the film will be released on July 24th.

The complete list from Criterion is linked here.


BERLIN'S FILMS REVEALED

The Berlin International Film Festival has announced the bulk of its lineup for the 2020 edition.  The Berlin Fest is of note as we often see one or two titles from that fest announced as part of the Telluride lineup each Labor Day.

Among the films listed by Indiewire that will be playing in Germany, these jump out as TFF #47 potentials:

Irradiated/Rithy Panh
The Roads Not Taken/Sally Potter
There Is No Evil/Mohammad Rasoulof
The Salt of Tears/Philippe Garrel
Siberia/Abel Ferrara
Undine/Christian Petzold


Check out the complete Berlin lineup as reported by Indiewire here.


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The Telluride Effect Part One / Berlin Film Fest Closes / Ken Burns' Country / Spotlight on Free Solo

Hope everyone had a pleasant weekend and is having a great President's Day.

THE TELLURIDE EFFECT PART ONE

Oscar night for 2019 is now just days away.  Final Oscar predictions from every source imaginable will be coming at you fast and furious over the next six days including in this space in Thursday's blog post.   

Some of the experts may mention "The Telluride Effect".  For those of you who are frequent readers here, the expression likely doesn't need any explanation.  For those that may not have bumped up against the term, here's an definition of sorts...The Telluride Effect suggests that for a film to win Best Picture at the Oscars it will have had to play at the Telluride Film Festival.  It does not mean the film has had to premiere at Telluride, only that it screens as a part of the festival's lineup.

The term (I think Sasha Stone at Awards Daily is actually the person who coined it) has emerged over the last decade-plus as, with one exception when The Hurt Locker won as 2009's Best Picture.

Here's the lowdown for those years:

2008: Slumdog Millionaire (premiered at Telluride)

2009: The Hurt Locker (no T-ride play)

2010: The King's Speech (premiered at Telluride)

2011: The Artist (premiered at Cannes then played Telluride)

2012: Argo (premiered at Telluride)

2013: 12 Years a Slave (premiered at Telluride)

2014: Birdman (premiered at Venice then played Telluride)

2015: Spotlight (premiered at Venice then played Telluride)

2016: Moonlight (premieres at Telluride)

2017: The Shape of Water (premiered at Venice then played Telluride)

So there it is.  Nine of the last ten Best Picture winners and the last eight in a row have played Telluride and, as you can see, the most common route is to either premiere at Telluride originally or, of late, do the Venice to T-ride.  Only in the case of The Artist in the last decade has a film run through Cannes/Telluride to a Best Picture win.

This year, among the eight films nominated for Best Picture, the Telluride Effect's continuation depends on either Alfonso Cuaron's Roma or Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite.  If you read most Oscar experts you'll have seen that many feel Roma will win Sunday night.  I can't think of any that think The Favourite will be the big winner.  

Roma's chances appear to be reasonable.  I'd say something better than 50/50 but certainly not a lock.  Many prognosticators think Peter Farrelly's Green Book could win Sunday night.  Other, more distant possibilities might be BlacKkKlansman and Black Panther but most think it's down to Roma and Green Book.

I'll be on record on Thursday...but...hint, hint...I'm probably going to stick with the notion that The Telluride Effect continues to hold sway.

So...if it really exists, why?  You might ask.  I have a few ideas:

1) Reputation.  The fest has this string because they consistently program great film.  I think that attendees and peeps from the business pay attention to what Tom Luddy, Julie Huntsinger and crew secure to screen over Labor Day.

2) Demographics:  The fest, it seems to me, has a clientele that, at some level, mirrors the Academy.  That's probably changing some over the past few years as the Academy has made a strong effort to expand size and diversity.

3) And speaking of the Academy...TFF and AMPAS have had a significant relationship for a while and a good chunk of the attendees each year are members of the Academy.

4) Timing:  Telluride is in a sweet, sweet spot on the calendar.  Situated at the beginning of September and between Venice and Toronto is great positioning in terms of  setting the table for the fall films that will likely dominate the Oscar conversation.

5) The media has noticed.  There has always been a media presence since I started going to Telluride (since 2006) but over the last decade that seems to have increased dramatically.  As Telluride has, at the very least coincidentally, become a harbinger for what could occur during Oscar season, the press contingent seems to have become larger making for a more dramatic Telluride impact on the awards season.  At least it feels that way to me.

There are probably other reasons but these are the five that come to mind.  I know that Sasha Stone also has frequently suggested that the AMPAS choice a few years back to move the Oscars to earlier in the year has magnified the effect of fall film fests including Telluride.

Does it happen again this year?  For a big chunk of this Oscar season, I didn't think it would but as I said above, I think it's now more likely than not but it sure isn't a lock.  

I'll have more about The Telluride Effect in Thursday's post...

BERLIN FILM FEST CLOSES

The Berlin Film Festival concluded this week with the naming of Nadiv Lapid's Synonyms as the recipient of the Golden Bear, the fests more important prize.  Also winning awards: By the Grace of God, System Crasher, I Was at Home...But, and So Long My Son.

As I have written here, it isn't uncommon for Telluride to program a couple of films that premiere at Berlin.  Last year, for example, Dovlatov played Berlin first.  In 2017, A Fantastic Woman, The Other Side of Hope and Hostages all played the German fest prior to Telluride bows.

With its Silver Bear win, Francois Ozon's By the Grace of God may have moved to the front of the line for Berlin titles that could make the TFF #46 lineup.  A couple of other titles that I thought we should keep an eye lost some of their luster in that regard owing to mediocre/tepid critical response.  I'm referring to Lone Scherfig's The Kindness of Strangers and Agnieska Holland's Mr. Jones.

I have linked stories about Berlin;s awards here from

Screen International

Variety

Deadline

And critical roundups for the Berlin films are linked here from:

Metacritic

Reini Urban's Compilation


KEN BURNS' COUNTRY

I wrote a couple of weeks back about Ken Burns' upcoming PBS multi-part documentary about American Country/Western music and the possibility some of that might screen at Telluride prior to its bow on PBS in September.

PBS posted a 60 second teaser for the doc featuring Marty Stuart talking about the Grand Ole Opry and its place in Nashville and Country music history.  Here it is thanks to the magic of YouTube:

SPOTLIGHT ON FREE SOLO

I have had RBG at the top of my list to win the Best Documentary Oscar on Sunday night since the nominations were announced but the last week or so, there seems to be a real undercurrent in favor of Free Solo which, of course, played Telluride last Labor Day.  Honestly, between now and Thursday when I put up my final Oscar predictions, I may switch to Free Solo to win.

No less a light than Indiewire's Anne Thompson makes a compelling case for that possibility in the story she put up on Friday.  It's not really the focus of Anne's story but shows up in it.

You can see what Anne and what the film makers and climbers had to say to Anne as well by clicking here.


That's today's MTFB.  I'll have a Part Two about The Telluride Effect on Thursday in addition to my final Oscar picks for Sunday night's extravaganza.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Updated Oscar Predictions for Seven Categories / New Gurus of Gold / You Can't Rule It Out / First Look at Berlin's First Film

Good Thursday to all you TFF fans...


UPDATED OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SEVEN CATEGORIES

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

1) Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
2) Incredibles 2
3) Isle of Dogs
4) Mirai
5) Ralph Breaks the Internet

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) If Beale Street Could Talk
2) Mary Poppins Returns
3) Isle of Dogs
4) Black Panther
5) BlacKkKlansman

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Shallow/A Star Is Born
2) All the Stars/Black Panther
3) I'll Fight/RBG
4) The Place Where Lost Things Go/Mary Poppins Returns
5) When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings/The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Roma
2) Cold War
3) A Star Is Born
4) The Favourite
5) Never Look Away

COSTUMES

1) The Favourite
2) Mary Poppins Returns
3) Black Panther
4) Bohemian Rhapsody
5) The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Favourite
2) Black Panther
3) Mary Poppins Returns
4) First Man
5) Roma

FILM EDITING

1) Vice
2) BlacKkKlansman
3) The Favourite
4) Bohemian Rhapsody
5) Green Book

NEW GURUS OF GOLD

Here's the link to the latest Oscar predictions from The Gurus of Gold at Movie City News.  They're linked here.  I'm in relatively good shape in as far as the collective predictions are concerned except in Film Editing where I'm way, way in a different place than the rest of the Gurus.

YOU CAN'T RULE IT OUT

I started seeing hints on Twitter the last couple of days that Martin Scorsese's The Irishman will likely have a theatrical release in September (perhaps late September) before its streaming release on Netflix, which is the money behind the film.  Jordan Ruimy of World of Reel tweeted this on Tuesday night:

Additionally, Ruimy posted a short story on his site which you can see here.

Of course, should this prove out, then the film, which is probably the most anticipated film of the year, has a window to screen at Telluride as well as Venice (if it doesn't screen in Cannes and my money says it screens at Cannes...assuming that fest and Netflix can come to some sort of mutually acceptable set of conditions-see my last post from Feb. 4th) and Toronto.

Making this all the more possible is the success this season of the Netflix produces Roma and should Roma ultimately win the Best Picture Oscar in two and a half weeks the chances of a T-ride play probably increase.

Stay tuned...

FIRST LOOK AT BERLIN'S FIRST FILM

Lone Scherfig's The Kindness of Strangers will open the Berlin Film Fest today.  The film is one of the Berlin titles that seems to me to have potential to be selected for The SHOW's 2019 lineup.

Deadline reported Tuesday that the film's producers have released a trailer for the film.  You can find that story and the embedded trailer here.

The Kindness of Strangers stars Zoe Kazan, Caleb Landry Jones, Andrea Riseborough and Bill Nighy and, in addition to opening the fest, will be one of the film's in competition for the Golden Bear.

Meanwhile, here is more coverage of the Berlinale from Indiewire with a story from David Ehrlich, Kate Erbland and Jude Dry looking at what they say are the ten most anticipated titles of the fest including several that are on my TFF #46 watch list including Mr. Jones, By the Grace of God, The Golden Glove and Varda by Agnes.


That's your MTFB update for this Thursday.  I'll have more on Monday.


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Latest Gurus of Gold / First Look From the Berlin Fest / I Nominate / Behind the Scenes of First Man

We're back on this last Thursday in January...

LATEST GURUS OF GOLD

The Gurus of Gold have begun the transition from predicting Oscar nominees to predicting Oscar winners.  Editor Ray Pride tasked all of the Gurus with predicting winners in eight categories: Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Score and Original Song.  

For what it's worth, my number one choices in each category are the overall leaders after all the Gurus that responded were counted.  Here's Anne Thompson's analysis from Indiewire on her take about the effect of the SAGs on Oscar.

It should be noted that the poll was conducted prior to winners being announced at the SAG Awards this past weekend.  Wins there by Rami Malek and Emily Blunt could change the landscape.

Here's the latest Gurus.

FIRST LOOK AT BERLIN FEST TITLE

One of the first titles from the Berlin Film Fest to draw my eye as a potential TFF #46 title was Agnieska Holland's Mr. Jones (formerly Gareth Jones).  For those who really follow this space closely you know that I had this film on my radar last year as a possible choice for TFF #45.

Holland has some history with TFF and Berlin usually provides a couple of titles to each year's Telluride lineup.

Now, Variety has exclusively premiered a first look at the a clip from the film and further, the clip has become available on YouTube  and is included here:

The Variety story is linked here.

 Here's some of the description of the film from the Variety story:

"Mr. Jones tells the little known story of Gareth Jones, an ambitious young Welsh journalist who travelled to the Soviet Union in 1933, and discovered the appalling reality behind the myth of a communist "utopia"".

I NOMINATE

Every year some film or films emerge from the Sundance Film Fest that catch the eye of the critical community and inevitably there is speculation that one or two of those might end up on the Telluride list .

As readers of this space know, that's not impossible but it is exceedingly rare.  In terms of feature films, the last to do it was Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea in 2016.  Prior to that it had been Lone Scherfig's 2009 Carey Mulligan starrer An Education.

Despite the rarity, though, there will be a few of the Sundance titles that some will think have a shot.  So...despite the fact that it's phenomenally unusual...I hereby nominate Scott Z. Burns The Report.  The film has been well received in Utah and stars current Oscar nominee Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) and focuses on the investigation into CIA "enhanced interrogation" techniques following 9/11.  Amazon Studios nabbed the distribution rights this week for a solid $14 million.  Reportedly Amazon is looking to position the film for a fall release.

Sounds like a fine addition for TFF #46 to me.

Here's Variety's report of the film's acquisition.

BEHIND THE SCENES OF FIRST MAN

SlashFilm posted a new behind-the-scenes clip of Damian Chazelle's First Man last week.  he clip focuses on what Chazelle and crew was able to do using the actual resources of NASA as they put together the film about the first lunar landing and the path that Neil Armstrong took on his way to becoming the first human to walk on the lunar surface.

Here's the clip from YouTube:

In addition, here is the coverage SlashFilm provided with the posting of the clip.

First Man is available to stream now.

That's your Thursday edition of MTFB.  It will return on Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Final Oscar Nomination Predictions / Predictions from Oscar Experts / Green Book Wins PGA / And Looking Ahead-Berlin

Welcome to MTFB.  It's the day before Oscar nominations are announced...less than 24 hours from now...


FINAL (PROBABLY) OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Well, it's that time.  Five months after the Telluride Film Festival, we're on the brink of knowing how The Academy has decided to honor the films of 2018...or at least, which films, performers and crafts people are still in the running for the film world's top honor.

What follows are my predictions in all 24 competitive Oscar categories.  A couple of notes before we dive in.  My success rate at nominations over the last few years has been between 75-80%.  Past that statistic, I find that the film/performance that I have listed at the #6 (in the categories with the traditional five nominees) makes it onto the list of nominees in about 75% of the cases where I have missed a nominee in a category.  In terms of sheer numbers, that means that if this year continues those trends , there are likely to be only 5-10 nominees across the 100+ total that I don't have predicted outright or as the first possibility after those five.

That said, it's such a weird, shifting year (Green Book wins PGA for example...see below) that the percentages could be way, way off.

Enough disclaimers...here are your predicted Oscar nominees for 2018 (Telluride films are Bold):

BEST PICTURE

1) Roma
2) Green Book
3) A Star Is Born
4) BlacKkKlansman
5) Black Panther
6) Vice
7) Bohemian Rhapsody
8) First Man
9) The Favourite
10) If Beale Street Could Talk

Maybe: First Reformed, Cold War

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
2) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
3) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman
4) Adam McKay/Vice
5) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
6) Peter Farrelly/Green Book

Maybe: Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War, Ryan Coogler/Black Panther

BEST ACTRESS

1) Glenn Close/The Wife
2) Olivia Colman/The Favourite
3) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born
4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5) Yalitza Aparicio/Roma
6) Emily Blunt/Mary Poppins Returns

Maybe: Viola Davis/Widows, Joanna Kulig/Cold War

BEST ACTOR

1) Christian Bale/Vice
2) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody
3) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
4) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book
5) John David Washington/BlacKkKlansman
6) Ethan Hawke/First Reformed

Maybe: Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling/First Man

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
2) Rachel Weisz/The Favourite
3) Emma Stone/The Favourite
4) Amy Adams/Vice
5) Claire Foy/First Man
6) Margot Robbie/Mary, Queen of Scots

Maybe: Emily Blunt/A Quiet Place, Nicole Kidman/Boy Erased

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Green Book
2) Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3) Sam Elliott/A Star Is Born
4) Adam Driver/BlacKkKlansman
5) Timothee Chalamet/Beautiful Boy
6) Sam Rockwell/Vice

Maybe: Michael B. Jordan/Black Panther


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Green Book
2) The Favourite
3) Roma
4) Vice
5) Eighth Grade
6) First Reformed

Maybe: Cold War, A Quiet Place

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) BlacKkKlansman
2) If Beale Street Could Talk
3) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4) A Star Is Born
5) Leave No Trace
6) Black Panther

Maybe: The Death of Stalin, Crazy Rich Asians, First Man

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
2) Incredibles 2
3) Isle of Dogs
4) Marai
5) Ralph Breaks the Internet
6) Early Man

Maybe: The Grinch


DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Won't You Be My Neighbor
2) RBG
3) Free Solo
4) Minding the Gap
5) Shirkers
6) Three Identical Strangers

Maybe: Hale County This Morning, This Evening

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Roma
2) Cold War
3) Capernaum
4) Shoplifters
5) Never Look Away
6) Burning

Maybe: The Guilty

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Roma

2) A Star Is Born

3) First Man

4) Cold War

5) The Favourite

6) Black Panther

Maybe: If Beale Street Could Talk

COSTUMES

1) The Favourite

2) Mary Poppins Returns

3) Black Panther

4) Mary Queen of Scots

5) Bohemian Rhapsody

6) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Maybe: BlacKkKlansman Vice, If Beale Street Could Talk,  

FILM EDITING

1) A Star Is Born

2) Roma

3) Vice

4) BlacKkKlansman

5) First Man

6) The Favourite

Maybe: Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Vice

2) Black Panther

3) Mary Queen of Scots

4) Bohemian Rhapsody

Maybe: Border, Stan and Ollie, Suspiria

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) If Beale Street Could Talk

2) First Man

3) Mary Poppins Returns

4) Isle of Dogs

5) Black Panther

6) BlacKkKlansman

Maybe: A Quiet Place, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Shallow/A Star Is Born

2) All the Stars/Black Panther

3) I'll Fight/RBG

4) Girl in the Movies/Dumplin'

5) Trip a Little Light Fantastic/Mary Poppins Returns

6) Where Lost Things Go/Mary Poppins Return

Maybe: Revelation/Boy Erased

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Favourite

2) Mary Poppins Returns

3) First Man

4) Black Panther

5) Roma

6) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Maybe: BlacKkKlansman

SOUND EDITING

1) First Man

2) A Quiet Place

3) Black Panther

4) Roma

5) Mary Poppins Returns

6) Ready Player One

Possible: A Star Is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, Annihilation

SOUND MIXING

1) A Star Is Born

2) First Man

3) Mary Poppins Returns

4) Roma

5) A Quiet Place

6) Black Panther

Maybe: Bohemian Rhapsody

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) First Man

2) Black Panther

3) Ready Player One

4) Avengers: Infinity War

5) Mary Poppins Returns

6) Solo: A Star Wars Story

Maybe: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Bao

2) Age of Sail

3) Bird Karma

4) Late Afternoon

5) Animal Behavior

6) Weekends

Maybe: Bilby, Pepe Le Morse

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Period. End of Sentence

2) End Game

3) Zion

4) My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes

5) Lifeboat

6) Women of the Gulag

Maybe: Black Sheep

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Caroline

2) Skin

3) Detainment

4) Fauve

5) Marguerite

6) Susotazs

Maybe: Mother

Sooooo...if I'm 100% accurate tomorrow morning (and as I said above, I should hit between 75-80%) that means the following:

Roma leads all films with 10 nominations and is the only film with double digit nominations.  Telluride films earn 37 total nominations...which in terms of what normally happens...the average is 27-28 nominations, would mark 2018 as a stunning year for the Oscar success for films from TFF.  

The nominations total is largely fueled by solid expectations for craft nominations especially for Roma, The Favourite and First Man.  Here's the TFF film breakdown:

Roma (10): Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing

The Favourite (9): Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress (2), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design

First Man (9): Picture, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Film Editing, Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects (should First Man miss on the Best Picture nomination and hit eight total nominees, it will establish a new record for a film with most nominations without getting a Best Picture bid...Mary Poppins Returns could do the same thing)

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3) Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay

Cold War (2): Foreign Language Film, Cinematography

And single nominations for:

Shoplifters: Foreign Language Film

Free Solo: Documentary Feature

Caroline: Live Action Short

Fauve: Live Action Short

Other non-Telluride big players:

A Star Is Born (9) Including Picture, Direction, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay

Black Panther (8): Including Picture, Score and Song

Mary Poppins Returns (8): Including Actress, Score and Song

BlacKkKlansman (7): Including Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay

Vice (7): Including Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay

Green Book (4): Including Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay

If Beale Street Could Talk (4): Including Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Score

Bohemian Rhapsody (3): Including Picture, Actor and Costumes

BUT DON'T TAKE MY WORD FOR IT: PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience

GREEN BOOK WINS PGA

Shaking things up as we get ready to have the Oscar nominees revealed to us tomorrow morning was Green Book's somewhat surprise win as Best Picture from The Producers Guild of America.  It seemed to me that most pundits thought it was a likely showdown between A Star Is Born and Roma.

Green Book's win caused quite the uproar on Film Twitter Saturday and Sunday and also resulted in a number of folks in the biz to proclaim that the Peter Farrelly film was now the new front runner for the Best Picture Oscar supplanting both ASIB and Roma.

I'm not there yet.  I still lean toward a Roma win on Feb. 24th but, as you know, that could change.

Oscar voters begin voting for the winners on Feb. 12th and runs through Feb. 19th.

AND LOOKING AHEAD-BERLIN

The Berlin International Film Festival is set to open on Feb. 7th and runs through the 17th.  Berlin almost always provides a film or two that make it onto the TFF lineup on Labor Day weekend.  Meanwhile, Sundance opens on Thursday and will almost certainly serve as an "excluder" in as far as potential Telluride film choices are concerned.  It almost always does.

Berlin's full lineup is linked here from The Hollywood Reporter

Looking at their announced films one might speculate about possible Telluride plays based on previous TFF appearances and expected release dates.  So...put on your list the following as possible TFF #46 selections:

Opening Night Film The Kindness of Strangers from director Lone Scherfig

Francois Ozon's By the Grace of God

Agnieszka Holland's Mr. Jones (last mentioned in this space under the title Gareth Jones)

Zhang Yimou's One Second

Fatih Akin's The Golden Glove

Agnes Varda's Varda by Agnes

That's your MTFB for today.  I'm planning to have a Special Post up tomorrow mid-morning after the Oscar nominations announcements with the list of nominees and some analysis about Telluride films and the Oscar race in general.  Should be a hoot.

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