MTFB Oscar Take: 3rd predictions for Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Sound and Visual Effects / Golden Globes '26 and TFF #52 / BAFTA Longlists and TFF #52 / PGA and TFF #52

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: THIRD PREDICTIONS FOR PRODUCTION DESIGN, COSTUMES, MAKEUP/HAIR, SOUND AND VISUAL EFFECTS 

Today we update the final five feature categories with new predictions for Production Design, Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Sound and Visual Effects. A film's previous ranking is to he right of the title in parentheses. All TFF #52 films are in Bold.    Here they are:

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Wicked: For Good (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

Others: Avatar: Fire and Ash, One Battle After Another and The Fantastic Four: First Steps.

COSTUME DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Wicked: For Good (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Hamnet (4)

5) Hedda (NR)

Others: The Testament of Ann Lee, Marty Supreme and Kiss of the Spiderman.

MAKEUP AND HAIR

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Wicked: For Good (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) The Smashing Machine (4)

5) Kokuho (NR)

Others: One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme and Nuremburg.

SOUND DESIGN

1) F1 (2)

2) Sinners (1)

3) One Battle After Another (3)

4) Avatar: Fire and Ash (NR)

5) Wicked: For Good (4)

Others: Sirat, Frankenstein and Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash (2)

2) F1 (1)

3) Sinners (5)

4) Frankenstein (3)

5) Superman (4)

Others: Wicked: For Good, Jurassic World Rebirth and The Lost Bus.

As of this morning's post if the MTFB Oscar Take is 100% accurate, ten TFF films will earn 41 nominations on announcement morning-Jan. 22nd.  Hamnet will lead TFF films with 11 nominations.  TFF #52 could also a year where five of the films that screened their earn Best Picture nominations which would be a record for the fest.

Here's how that could shake out:

Hamnet (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley). Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Costumes, Cinematography, Editing, Original Score and Production Design.

Frankenstein (9): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Original Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.

Sentimental Value (8): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Fanning and Lilleaas), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Original Screenplay and International Feature.

It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, International Feature and Original Screenplay.

Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Best Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (2): Best Actor (Moura) and International Feature.

Blue Moon (1): Best Actor (Hawke).

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (1): Best Actress (Byrne).

Jay Kelly (1): Best Original Screenplay.

Cover-Up (1) Best Documentary.

GOLDEN GLOBES '26 AND TFF #52

Telluride films had a better than fair night at the Golden Globes with a win for Best Film/Drama for Chole Zhao.  Here are all the winners from TFF #52 films from last night's Golden Globes:

Best Film/Drama-Hamnet

Best Actor/Drama-Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent

Best Actress/Drama-Jesse Buckley

Best Actress/Comedy or Musical-Rose Byrne/If I Had legs I'd Kick You

Best Supporting Actor-Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value

Best Motion Picture-Not in the English Language-The Secret Agent

Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another won the most hardware of the evening with four trophies: Best Film/Comedy or Musical, Best Supporting Actress (Taylor, Best Direction and Best Screenplay.

The complete list of all Golden Globe winners is linked here.

BAFTA LONGLISTS AND TFF #52

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (The Brit Oscars, if you will) its "longlists" for its Film categories for 2025 last week.  The longlists serve as a first cut in BAFTA's nominating process.  Films have to make the longlists in various categories to be voted on for actual nominations.

19 TFF #52 (and #51) films drew 73 "mentions" in this winnowing process.  Chloe Zhao's Hamnet lead the TFF parade.  Here is the list of TFF films making BAFTA's longlists:

Hamnet (14): Best Film, Outstanding British Film, Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actress (Watson), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Cast, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design.

Bugonia (12): Best Film, Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Actress (Stone), Actor (Plemons), Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design and Sound.

Frankenstein (12): Best Film, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Cast, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Special Visual Effects and Sound.

Sentimental Value (8): Best Film, Best Film Not in the English Language, Direction, Original Screenplay, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Costumes.

Pillion (6): Outstanding British Film, Outstanding Debut, Adapted Screenplay, Actor Melling), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Cast.

Ballad of a Small Player (3): Outstanding British Film, Production Design, Cinematography.

Blue Moon (3): Best Original Screenplay, Actor (Hawke), Supporting Actor (Scott).

It Was Just an Accident (2): Best Film Not in the English Language, Original Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (2): Best Film Not in the English language, Original Screenplay.

Nouvelle Vague (2): Best film Not in the English Language, Costumes.

Single Mentions for:

H Is for Hawk: Outstanding British Film.

Urchin: Outstanding Debut.

La Grazia: Outstanding Film Not in the English Language.

Cover-Up: Documentary.

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Leading Actress (Byrne).

Jay Kelly: Best Supporting Actor (Sandler).

Apocalypse in the Tropics (TFF #51): Documentary.

Riefenstahl (TFF #51): Documentary.

One to One: john and Yoko (TFF #51): Documentary.

The complete list of the BAFTA longlists are here.

PGA AND TFF #52

The Producers Guild of America announced its ten choices/nominees for their Best Film award for 2025.  The list includes four films from TFF #52>  Here's the list with TFF #52 films in Bold:

“Bugonia” (Focus Features)

Ed Guiney, p.g.a., Andrew Lowe, p.g.a., Yorgos Lanthimos, p.g.a., Emma Stone, p.g.a., Lars Knudsen, p.g.a.

“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)

Nominees to be determined

“Frankenstein” (Netflix)

Guillermo Del Toro, p.g.a., J. Miles Dale, p.g.a., Scott Stuber, p.g.a.

“Hamnet” (Focus Features)

Liza Marshall, p.g.a., Pippa Harris, p.g.a., Sam Mendes, p.g.a., Steven Spielberg, p.g.a., Nicolas Gonda, p.g.a.

“Marty Supreme” (A24)

Nominees to be determined

“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)

Adam Somner, Sara Murphy, Paul Thomas Anderson

“Sentimental Value” (Neon)

Maria Ekerhovd, Andrea Berentsen Ottmar

“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)

Ryan Coogler, p.g.a., Zinzi Coogler, p.g.a., Sev Ohanian, p.g.a. 

“Train Dreams” (Netflix)

Marissa McMahon, p.g.a., Teddy Schwarzman, p.g.a., William Janowitz, p.g.a., Ashley Schlaifer, p.g.a., Michael Heimler, p.g.a.

“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)

Zach Cregger, p.g.a., Miri Yoon, p.g.a.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Predicting the Winners Part Four / Critics Choice and TFF / Director's Guild and Producer's Guild

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PREDICTING THE WINNERS PART FOUR

Here's the last set of initial predictions for what will win at the Oscar ceremony on March 2nd.  I'll have fresh predictions for Best Picture, Direction and the Acting categories on Thursday.  As always, TFF films are in Bold.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked

2) Conclave

3) Nosferatu

4) A Complete Unknown

5) Gladiator II

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance

2) Wicked

3) Emilia Perez

4) A Different Man

5) Nosferatu  

BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) A Complete Unknown

2) Wicked

3) Dune Part Two

4) Emilia Perez

5) The Wild Robot

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

3) Wicked

4) Better Man

5) Alien: Romulus

Comment: Among these four categories, TFF's best shot at a win looks to be Conclave in costumes and even that seems fairly unlikely.  Maybe the tightest category of any is Sound.  A Complete Unknown, Wicked and Dune Part Two seem to be in dead heat.  It'll be interesting to see if that changes over the next couple of weeks when we re-visit these categories.

CRITICS CHOICE AND TFF

The Critics Choice awards were presented on Friday.  TFF #51 films won seven awards total including a Best Picture win for Sean Baker's Anora.

Other TFF winners included:

Conclave: Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Acting Ensemble.

A Real Pain: Best Comedy (tied with Deadpool & Wolverine), and Supporting Actor (Kieran Culkin).

Emilia Perez: Best Foreign Language Film and Best Song (El Mal).

DIRECTORS' GUILD AND PRODUCERS' GUILD

Probably the most important Guild awards named their "Best of" 2024 on Saturday and both organizations awarded the same film.  Sean Baker won the DGA Best Director for a Feature Film award for Anora.  The PGA also awarded Anora as Best Picture.  The PGA is very interesting as it uses a preferential ballot just like the Academy does for Best Picture.

Also winning the DGA Award for Best First Time Feature was RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys, which, of course, was also a TFF #51 film.

With the three wins over the weekend, DGA, PGA and Critic's Choice, Anora will surely come raring back to the top of the list of predictions for Best Picture (My updated Best Picture predictions will be posted on Thursday).  It seems difficult to concoct plausible scenario for any other picture at this point.  

Anora's stunning set of wins this past weekend also suggests that Mikey Madison is firmly in a real tussle for Best Actress with Demi Moore. Moore had surged over the past few weeks.

As a matter of fact, Anora could be in line to win five of the six Oscars it's nominated for.  I could see it taking Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay and even Editing.  The exception likely being in Supporting Actor where Kieran Culkin seems almost unbeatable and if anyone has any shot at knocking him off the Oscar stage it's probably Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown rather than Anora's Yura Borisov.

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Critics Choice Awards / Producers Guild Nominates / MTFB Oscar Update: Score, Song and More / The Film Stage's Hot 100 for 2024 / Interviews and Profiles: Giamatti, Domingo

CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS

Oppenheimer and Barbie dominated the Critics Choice Awards last night with the former winning eight trophies including Best Picture and Direction.  Barbie won six.

Three TFF films earned awards with The Holdovers dominating in acting categories.  Paul Giamatti won Best Actor, Da'Vine Joy Randolph won Best Supporting Actress and Domnic Sessa was named Best Young Actor.  Emma Stone won Best Actress for Poor Things and Anatomy of a Fall was named Best Foreign Language Film.

The complete winners list is here from Variety.

The next big precursor is the announcement of BAFTA nominees on Thursday.

PRODUCERS GUILD NOMINATES

The Producers Guild of America named their 10 nominees for Best Film of  the Year on Saturday.  Four films that screened at TFF #50 made the list: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Poor Things and The Zone of Interest.

The other six films nominated were: American Fiction, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer and Past Lives.

In a twist, the PGA's ten finalists also happen to be the ten films that MFB currently is predicting to be the ten nominees for the Best Picture Oscar (here's the current MTFB Best Picture list from Jan. 8th).

The PGA announces its winner on Feb. 25th.

Here's the official announcement from the PGA website.

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCORE, SONG AND MORE

Here's the latest MTFB Oscar Update.  Today I'm updating the Original Song, Original Score, Animated Feature, Production Design, Visual Effects and Sound categories. These categories were last posted on Jan. 1st.   As usual TFF #50 films are in Bold.  A film's previous position on the MTFB Oscar chart is listed in parentheses.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) What Was I Made For/Barbie (1)

2) I'm Just Ken/Barbie (2)

3) Road to Freedom/Rustin (3)

4) The Fire Inside/Flamin' Hot (4)

5) It Never Went Away/American Symphony (5)

Dance the Night Away/Barbie, High Life/Flora and Sun and Superpower (I)/The Color Purple.

BEST SCORE

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)

3) Poor Things (4)

4) Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse (3)

5) The Zone of Interest (5)

Alternates: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Society of the Snow and The Boy and the Heron.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

1) Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse (1)

2) The Boy and the Heron (2)

3) Elemental (3)

4) Nimona (4)

5) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (-)

Alternates: Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Wish and Robot Dreams.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Barbie (1)

2) Poor Things (2)

3) Oppenheimer (4)

4) Killers of the Flower Moon (3)

5) Maestro (5)

Alternates: Asteroid City, The Color Purple and Napoleon

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Creator (1)

2) Poor Things (3)

3) Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 (-)

4) Godzilla Minus One (2)

5) Society of the Snow (5)

Alternates: Spiderman Across the Spider-Verse, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Napoleon.

SOUND

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Maestro (2)

3) Ferrari (4)

4) The Zone of Interest (3)

5) Killers of the Flower Moon (5)

Alternates: Barbie, Napoleon and The Killer.

THE FILM STAGE'S HOT 100

Last week The Film Stage posted its annual list of 100 "Most Anticipated" films for 2024.  As usual, I parsed the list for titles that seem like a reasonable possibility to be at TFF #51.  Last year I came up with a list of 25 films of which seven actually made the TFF #50 lineup:

El Conde, The Royal Hotel, Poor Things, All of Us Strangers, The Holdovers, Fallen Leaves and The Zone of Interest.

Last year's Film Stage list also included five films I din not put in my guesses that made it to T-ride: Fingernails, Anatomy of a Fall, Janet Planet, The Bikeriders and La Chimera.

So, with that as a preface, here are 18 films from the 2024 Film Stage list that could show up on Labor Day (with director listed in parentheses):

96) Maria (Larrain)

61) Holland, Michigan (Cave)

60) The History of Sound (Hermanus)

58) Emilia Perez (Audiard)

54) Queer (Guadagnino)

53) The Rivals of Amziah King (Patterson)

46) The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol (Chemet)

44) Kinds of Kindmess (Lanthimos)

39) Rumours (Maddin)

38) Bird (Arnold)

25) Anora (Baker)

19) Oh, Canada (Schrader)

14) Blitz (McQueen)

12) The Nickel Boys (Ross)

8) The End (Oppenheimer)

7) Mickey 7 (Joon Ho)

2) The Way of the Wind (Malick)

1) Megalopolis (Coppola)

And your link to the complete Film Stage 2024 Most anticipated list.

INETRVIEWS AND PROFILES

Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers from The Hollywood Reporter.

Colman Domingo for Rustin from Deadline.

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Producers Endorse Nomadland / Cannes Uncertainty

PRODUCERS ENDORSE NOMADLAND

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) named its winners for film and television last night and the win for Best Feature Film went to Chloe Zhao's Nomadland.  Pixar's Soul was named best Animated feature of the year.

A number of outlets suggested that the PGA win may well be the last indicator anyone needs to conclude that Nomadland will be the Best Picture winner when the final announcement is made on Oscar night, April 25th.

However, the PGA doesn't always presage an Oscar win.  In recent years 1917, La La Land and The Big Short won the PGA but then missed winning the big prize on Oscar night (per Indiewire's Anne Thompson).  As a matter of fact, the PGA historically matches with Oscar about 2/3 of the time according to Deadline. com the match has happened 21 times in the organizations 31 years of existence.

I have included links below to a number of sources covering the awards last night:

Variety

The Hollywood Reporter

Indiewire

Deadline

 Awards Daily

CANNES UNCERTAINTY

More reporting suggests that there is a possibility that the Cannes Film Festival may be looking at a move to the fall.  Roger Friedman of ShowBiz 411.  

Friedman's article suggests the potential of an October date and makes sure to mention that that would be post-Telluride, Toronto, Venice and New York though New York's normal run is late Sept. into October.

Friedman also pointedly mentions the chaos that would ensue among the fall fests and for the film makers should Cannes move to October writing:

"I’m thinking Thierry Fremaux must be having a nervous breakdown. The poor man. He didn’t get to have a 2020 Festival. And now this. He could show all the 2020 movies at this point in a sidebar. And no one knows what’s happened to Wes Anderson’s “The French Dispatch.”

Fall movies for festivals are a big question, too. Where will Steven Spielberg unveil West Side Story?"

The entire article is linked here.

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Oscar Update: Six Categories / Guild Love for Nomadland, The Truffle Hunters and More / MTFB''s Final Oscar Nom Predix on Sunday!

OSCAR UPDATE: SIX CATEGORIES

NOTE: FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS FROM MTFB WILL DROP ON SUNDAY WITH OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED MONDAY MORNING.

I am updating Oscar nomination predictions with days left until the nominees are announced.  As usual, you'll see the last position of the film/performer in parentheses and when the category was last predicted.  TFF films are in Bold.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (last predicited Feb. 22nd)

1) Crip Camp; a Disability Revolution (1)

2) Time (2)

3) Collective (3)

4) Dick Johnson Is Dead (4)

5) All In: The Fight for Democracy (8)

6) The Truffle Hunters (7)

7) Boys State (5)

8) Welcome to Chechnya (6)

9) My Octopus Teacher (-)

10) Gunda (-)

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE (last predicted Feb. 22nd)

1) Another Round (1)

2) Quo Vadis, Aida (4)

3) Two of Us (3)

4) Collective (2)

5) La Llorona (5)

6) I'm No Longer Here (7)

7) A Sun (6)

8) Night of the Kings (9)

9) Dear Comrades (8)

10) Sun Children (10)

CINEMATOGRAPHY (last predicted Feb. 25th)

1) Nomadland (1)

2) Mank (2)

3) News of the World (3)

4) Tenet (4)

5) Minari (7)

6) Judas and the Black Messiah (6)

7) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (5)

8) First Cow (9)

9) One Night in Miami (8)

10) I'm Thinking of Ending Things (-)

EDITING (last predicted Feb. 25th)

1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)

2) Nomadland (3)

3) Mank (4)

4) News of the World (2)

5) Tenet (5)

6) Sound of Metal (6)

7) The Father (7)

8) Promising Young Woman (-)

9) One Night in Miami (8)

10) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (10)

ORIGINAL SCORE (last predicted on Feb. 25th)

1)  Soul (1)

2) News of the World (2)

3) Mank (3)

4) The Midnight Sky (4)

5) Tenet (5)

6) Minari (6)

7) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (7)

8) Da 5 Bloods (8)

9) The Little Things (9)

10) Blizzard of Souls (10)

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Io Si/The Life Ahead (2)

2) Speak Now/One Night in Miami (1)

3) Hear My Voice/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (4)

4) Husavik/Eurovision Song Contest (5)

5) Fight for You/Judas and the Black Messiah (3)

6) Turntables/All In: The Fight for Democracy (6)

7) Wuhan Flu/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (8)

8) Never Break/Giving Voice (7)

9) Rain Song/Minari (9)

10) See What You've Done/Belly of the Beast (10)

GUILD LOVE FOR NOMADLAND AND THE TRUFFLE HUNERS (AND MORE)

Both the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild announced their nominees earlier this week and TFF #47 selection Nomadland and Chloe Zhao was named on both lists.  

Additionally, other TFF #47 films were also haled by the DGA.  Florian Zeller was nominated for Best Frist Feature for The Father and Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw were nominated for Best Direction of a Feature Documentary.

The Truffle Hunters also was PGA nominated as well.  

The American Society of Cinematographers also named its nominees this week which included Nomadland in its Feature film lineup, The Truffle Hunters and another TFF #47 selection, Gianfranco Rosi's Notturno for Documentary Cinematography.

Coverage is here:

DGA from Variety 

PGA Features from Entertainment Weekly

PGA Docs from Variety

ASC from Awards Daily

REMINDER AGAIN....MTFB'S FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS WILL BE HERE ON SUNDAY

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Catching Up / Indiewire's 25 Most Anticipated /PGA Awards 1917 / SAG Award Winners Announced Last Night / ACE Award Surprise-Parasite

CATCHING UP

In the blur that has been the last couple of weeks of Oscar nomination announcement buildup and then the subsequent parsing...some notes and stories that I would have normally included in this space got left behind...so...time to catch up:

Mark Cousins article about the death of the late great Buck Henry is here from Indiewire.

Kris Tapley talks with The Two Popes Oscar nominated scribe Anthony McCarten on The Call Sheet Podcast.

Indiewire reports HBO and Bong Joon-ho are developing Parasite as a project for the premium channel.

The Film Stage on Pedro Almodovar's Pain and Glory.

Damien Chazelle's new Netflix joint will be featured at the Berlin Film Festival.



INDIEWIRE'S 25 MOST ANTICIPATED

Indiewire writers Eric Kohn, David Ehrlich and Kate Erbland published their collective list of 25 films that they have high hopes for on Jan. 11th.  I took a look at their list to continue to try to get an early bead on what might be in the TFF #47 conversation as we move toward spring, Cannes and ultimately the summer season when Telluride Film Fest energy grows and grows.

Consequently, here are the films from their list that seem TFF-y or that are just on my own personal wish list (presented alphabetical as is done in the original post):

Ana de Armas who will star in Blonde (photo via Indiewire)

BLONDE- Andrew Dominik's thinly veiled examination of a Marilyn Monroe-like character played by the currently red hot Ana De Armas (Knives Out).  From Netflix.  Release date: TBD.

DUNE- From director Denis Villenueve.  Villenueve tackles the Frank Herbert sci-fi classic and will certainly have a different approach than we can find in David Lynch's 1984 version.  Villenueve's fairly consistent presence at Telluride makes this a possibility ...or maybe more a wish on my behalf.  From Warner Bros.Release-Dec. 18th.

THE FRENCH DISPATCH- Wes Anderson is back.  A film reportedly about journalism and journalists with Anderson's usual array of regular stars (Willem Dafoe, Bill Murray, Tilda Swinton, Saoirse Ronan) and a batch of new talent (Timothee Chalamet, Elizabeth Moss).  I expect that some version of the film will bow at Cannes, which as TFF followers know, doesn't preclude at Telluride play.  From Searchlight.  Release: TBD.

I'M THINKING OF ENDING THINGS- Directed by Charlie Kaufman.  Could Kaufman return to Telluride after screening Anomalisa there in 2015?  Could be.  Jesse Plemons and Jesse Buckley star.  From Netflix.  Release: TBD.

MANK- Director David Fincher's first feature film gig since 2014's Gone Girl finds him directing a script written by his father about the genesis of the film classic Citizen Kane.  Gary Oldman stars as Herman Mankiewicz, the screen writer of the film many regard still as the greatest film ever made.  At this point, it's the film I most ardently hope makes it to Southwest Colorado over Labor Day weekend.  From Netflix.  Release TBD.

Chloe Zhao (photo via Indiewire)

NOMADLAND- Chloe Zhao's follow up to The Rider.  I had this on my 2019 watch lists and that, obviously didn't happen.  Now I'm expecting a Cannes debut and a possible awards friendly release date.  Frances McDormand stars.  From Searchlight.  Release TBD.

ON THE ROCKS- Sofia Coppola re-teams with her Lost in Translation star Bill Murray.  Rashida Jones is cast as well in this father/daughter film.  Coppola screened Lost in Translation at TFF in 2003.  Could this mark a return for her?  From Apple.  Release TBD.

Check out the rest of the Indiewire 25 here.


PGA AWARDS 1917

The Producers Guild of America announced their winners for films and television for 2019 on Saturday night. 

Sam Mendes 1917 took the film top prize which might mean that the World War I set film that is shot to appear to be essentially one take is your front runner for the Best Picture Oscar.  Indiewire reports that the PGA winner is a 72% successful indicator of the eventual BP Oscar winner.

1917 beat out three TFF films that were also in the running: Parasite, Marriage Story and Ford v Ferrari.

Toy Story 4 was named the PGA winner for Animated Feature while the producers named Apollo 11 the Best Documentary of the year.

The complete PGA story is linked here.


SAG AWARD WINNERS ANNOUNCED LAST NIGHT

Telluride 2019 had a good night at the SAG Awards last night with TFF #46 film actors scooping up two prizes and a TFF film also won Best Ensemble.  Here's the rundown of winners for film:

Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Best ACtress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
Best Ensemble: Parasite

The Parasite win was something of a surprise and positions it along with PGA winner 1917 as the two most likely front runners at this point for the Best Picture Oscar.  Though, I wouldn't rule out Once Upon a Time...just yet.

Now we wait to see what the DGA and WGA do.



ACE AWARD SURPRISE-PARASITE

The American Cinema Editors group surprised the film world on Friday awarding Bong Joon-ho's Parasite as the best edited film drama of the year.  Parasite beat Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story and Joker.

Jojo Rabbit won the Eddy for Film-Comedy.  Toy Story 4 won for Animated Feature and Apollo 11 won for editing for a Feature Documentary.

The complete list of nominees and winners is linked here from Awards Watch.



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Long Live Buck Henry 1930-2020 / SPECIAL NOTE: FINAL OSCAR PREDIX ON SUNDAY!!! / Guilds: Writers, Directors, Producers and BAFTA / Oscar Predictions Updated: Costumes. Makeup and Hair, and Production Design / MTFB in Other Places / First Cow Trailer

LONG LIVE BUCK HENRY 1930-2020

Got the news late last night that the legendary Buck Henry had died of a heart attack at the age of 89.  Henry had an extensive relationship with the Telluride Film Festival going all the way back to appearing as a guest of the fest at TFF #2 in 1975 according to the best info I can come up with.  Henry also Guest Directed in 2004 and was part of the multiple Guest Director group for TFF 's 40th Anniversary in 2013.  My records also indicate that Henry was at the fest in 2007 as well.

Henry was probably best known as the co-writer of Mike Nichols classic The Graduate, a film that would be on Top Ten list of all-timers.  Henry was a two time Oscar nominee.  The first came for the screenplay of The Graduate the other came as co-director of Heaven Can Wait with Warren Beatty.

He also wrote or co-wrote the screenplays for Catch-22, The Owl and the Pussycat, What's Up Doc?, The Day of the Dolphin and To Die For.  He was also the co-creator, along with Mel Brooks, of the 1960's comedy Get Smart.

Henry was also an early and often host for Saturday Night Live having reportedly hosted 10 times.

I got to meet Henry in 2013 in Telluride and express my thanks for his incredible career of providing thought provoking entertainment and a bunch of laughter.  That's the photo you see above.

Maybe the best thing that's happened at TFF over the years that I've been going has been opportunities like that- a chance to thank people for what they've meant in your life that you're never going to see at any other moment.  I don't do it often because I don't want to annoy- but my admiration for Buck was such that I knew that I'd kick myself if I didn't just tell the man "Thank you".

And thanks again Buck!



SPECIAL NOTE: FINAL OSCAR PREDIX ON SUNDAY!!!

I'll have the MTFB Final Oscar nomination predictions for this year posted at 6pm EST on Sunday, Jan. 12th

As of this morning, using the latest projections I have for each of the 21 feature categories- which will be updated for Sunday and will mean that there will be changes between now and then- here are the predicted nominee leaders:

Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood-12 (and the only film in double digits)
The Irishman-9
1917-8
Marriage Story-8
Joker-7
Parasite-6
Ford v Ferrari-5
The Two Popes-4
Bombshell-4
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker-4
Rocketman-4
Jojo Rabbit-3

All others 2 or fewer.

Other TFF #46 films:
Pain and Glory-2
Judy-2
Beanpole-1

Total TFF #46 nominations predicted- 28-but that will also likely change with Sunday's final predictions.






GUILDS: WRITERS, DIRECTORS, PRODUCERS AND BAFTA

Since my last post we've seen a ton of precursors name names for 2019 giving us new information to parse about Oscar nomination possibilities.  Let's run that down from the perspective of TFF #46 films.

WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA (WGA) NOMINEES

The Writers Guild announced their nominations for screen writing on Monday>  TFF #46 films which were nominated were: Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story and Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin Won's Parasite in the Original Screenplay category.  No TFF #46 films were named as nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay.

Other Original Script nominees were for: 1917, Booksmart and Knives Out.  Adapted script nominees included: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker and Little Women.


DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA (DGA) NOMINEES

Parasite's Bong Joon-ho was the only TFF #46 director named by the DGA for their Director of the Year prize.  Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story, James Mangold/Ford v Ferrari, and Fernando Meirelles/The Two Popes all failed to be nominated.

The other four DGA nominees are Sam Mendes/1917, Martin Scorsese/The Irishman, Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood and Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit.


PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA (PGA) NOMINEES

The ten films named as potential winners of the PGA Award for Best Picture included three TFF #46 films: Ford v. Ferrari, Marriage Story and Parasite.

The other seven PGA nominees are: 1917, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Knives Out, Little Women and Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood.

Sasha Stone, founder of Awards Daily says that this tells that these results mean that the 2019 Best Picture Oscar winner is on this list of five films: 1917, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood and Parasite.

That means that Bong Joon-ho's Parasite now stands as the best bet for re-starting Telluride's trend for having screened the Best Picture winner is Parasite.


BRITISH ACADEMY OF FILM AND TELEVISION ARTS (BAFTA)

The British version of The Oscars named their nominees on Tuesday and TFF #46 films snagged 23 nominations.  Here are the Telluride films that were nominated:

Marriage Story had five: Scarlett Johansson/Best Actress, Adam Driver/Best Actor, Laura Dern/Best Supporting Actress, Noah Baumbach/Best Original Screenplay and Best Casting.

The Two Popes had five: Best British Film, Jonathan Pryce/Best Actor, Anthony Hopkins/Best Supporting Actor, Anthony McCarten/Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Casting.

Parasite had four: Best Film, Bong Joon-ho/Best Director, Bong and Jin Han Won/Best Original Screenplay and Best Film Not in the English Language.

Le Mans 66 (that's Ford v Ferrari to you and me) had three: Best Editing, Best Cinematography and Best Sound.

Judy had three: Renee Zellweger/Best Actress, Best Costumes and Best Makeup/Hair.

Single nominations came for:

Pain and Glory: Best Film Not in the English Language.
Portrait of a Lady on Fire: Best Film Not in the English Language.
Diego Maradona: Best Documentary.

Joker lead all films with 11 nominations followed closely by Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood and The Irishman with 10 nominations apiece.




OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATED

Here's my latest calls on the probable Oscar nominees in the categories of Costumes, Makeup and Hair and Production Design.  TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.

COSTUMES (Last predicted on Dec. 19th)

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) Little Women (3)
3) Dolemite Is My Name (2)
4) Downton Abbey (5)
5) Rocketman (4)
6) 1917 (-)

Other possibles:Harriet, The Irishman, Judy, Jojo Rabbit


MAKEUP/HAIR (last updated Dec. 19th)

1) Bombshell (1)
2) Judy (4)
3) Rocketman (3)
4) Joker (2)
5) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (5)
6) 1917 (-)

Other possibles: Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Little Women, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil


PRODUCTION DESIGN (last updated Dec. 12th)

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) 1917 (2)
3) The Irishman (3)
4) Parasite (6)
5) Joker (5)
6) Jojo Rabbit (-)

Other possibles: Little Women, The Two Popes,  Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Ad Astra


MTFB IN OTHER PLACES



The latest Gurus of Gold is up at Movie City News.  It's got the latest Oscar predix for Best Picture as well as a specialty poll.  We were asked to give 3-5 "Unlikely Underdogs" a shout out.  Among mine were an endorsement for Tracy Letts as as Best Supporting Actor for Ford v Ferrari and, in the same category, Kevin Garnett in Uncut Gems.

Take a look at the rest of the Gurus at this link.

Meanwhile, I also have a post up over at The Script Lab.  I wrote about the screenplays both adapted and original that are the most likely to be nominated next Monday morning.  I name a dozen for each category and include a small rundown about the film/screenplay/writers as well as providing my latest ranking of which scripts will be nominated.

Take a look at that post linked here.


FIRST COW TRAILER

According to the fine folks at Indiewire, Kelly Reichardt's TFF #46 player, First Cow has a trailer.  Here it is linked from YouTube:

First Cow is set for release on Mar. 6th.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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Final Oscar Nomination Predictions / Predictions from Oscar Experts / Green Book Wins PGA / And Looking Ahead-Berlin

Welcome to MTFB.  It's the day before Oscar nominations are announced...less than 24 hours from now...


FINAL (PROBABLY) OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Well, it's that time.  Five months after the Telluride Film Festival, we're on the brink of knowing how The Academy has decided to honor the films of 2018...or at least, which films, performers and crafts people are still in the running for the film world's top honor.

What follows are my predictions in all 24 competitive Oscar categories.  A couple of notes before we dive in.  My success rate at nominations over the last few years has been between 75-80%.  Past that statistic, I find that the film/performance that I have listed at the #6 (in the categories with the traditional five nominees) makes it onto the list of nominees in about 75% of the cases where I have missed a nominee in a category.  In terms of sheer numbers, that means that if this year continues those trends , there are likely to be only 5-10 nominees across the 100+ total that I don't have predicted outright or as the first possibility after those five.

That said, it's such a weird, shifting year (Green Book wins PGA for example...see below) that the percentages could be way, way off.

Enough disclaimers...here are your predicted Oscar nominees for 2018 (Telluride films are Bold):

BEST PICTURE

1) Roma
2) Green Book
3) A Star Is Born
4) BlacKkKlansman
5) Black Panther
6) Vice
7) Bohemian Rhapsody
8) First Man
9) The Favourite
10) If Beale Street Could Talk

Maybe: First Reformed, Cold War

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
2) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
3) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman
4) Adam McKay/Vice
5) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
6) Peter Farrelly/Green Book

Maybe: Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War, Ryan Coogler/Black Panther

BEST ACTRESS

1) Glenn Close/The Wife
2) Olivia Colman/The Favourite
3) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born
4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5) Yalitza Aparicio/Roma
6) Emily Blunt/Mary Poppins Returns

Maybe: Viola Davis/Widows, Joanna Kulig/Cold War

BEST ACTOR

1) Christian Bale/Vice
2) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody
3) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
4) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book
5) John David Washington/BlacKkKlansman
6) Ethan Hawke/First Reformed

Maybe: Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling/First Man

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
2) Rachel Weisz/The Favourite
3) Emma Stone/The Favourite
4) Amy Adams/Vice
5) Claire Foy/First Man
6) Margot Robbie/Mary, Queen of Scots

Maybe: Emily Blunt/A Quiet Place, Nicole Kidman/Boy Erased

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Green Book
2) Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3) Sam Elliott/A Star Is Born
4) Adam Driver/BlacKkKlansman
5) Timothee Chalamet/Beautiful Boy
6) Sam Rockwell/Vice

Maybe: Michael B. Jordan/Black Panther


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Green Book
2) The Favourite
3) Roma
4) Vice
5) Eighth Grade
6) First Reformed

Maybe: Cold War, A Quiet Place

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) BlacKkKlansman
2) If Beale Street Could Talk
3) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4) A Star Is Born
5) Leave No Trace
6) Black Panther

Maybe: The Death of Stalin, Crazy Rich Asians, First Man

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
2) Incredibles 2
3) Isle of Dogs
4) Marai
5) Ralph Breaks the Internet
6) Early Man

Maybe: The Grinch


DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Won't You Be My Neighbor
2) RBG
3) Free Solo
4) Minding the Gap
5) Shirkers
6) Three Identical Strangers

Maybe: Hale County This Morning, This Evening

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Roma
2) Cold War
3) Capernaum
4) Shoplifters
5) Never Look Away
6) Burning

Maybe: The Guilty

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Roma

2) A Star Is Born

3) First Man

4) Cold War

5) The Favourite

6) Black Panther

Maybe: If Beale Street Could Talk

COSTUMES

1) The Favourite

2) Mary Poppins Returns

3) Black Panther

4) Mary Queen of Scots

5) Bohemian Rhapsody

6) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Maybe: BlacKkKlansman Vice, If Beale Street Could Talk,  

FILM EDITING

1) A Star Is Born

2) Roma

3) Vice

4) BlacKkKlansman

5) First Man

6) The Favourite

Maybe: Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Vice

2) Black Panther

3) Mary Queen of Scots

4) Bohemian Rhapsody

Maybe: Border, Stan and Ollie, Suspiria

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) If Beale Street Could Talk

2) First Man

3) Mary Poppins Returns

4) Isle of Dogs

5) Black Panther

6) BlacKkKlansman

Maybe: A Quiet Place, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Shallow/A Star Is Born

2) All the Stars/Black Panther

3) I'll Fight/RBG

4) Girl in the Movies/Dumplin'

5) Trip a Little Light Fantastic/Mary Poppins Returns

6) Where Lost Things Go/Mary Poppins Return

Maybe: Revelation/Boy Erased

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Favourite

2) Mary Poppins Returns

3) First Man

4) Black Panther

5) Roma

6) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Maybe: BlacKkKlansman

SOUND EDITING

1) First Man

2) A Quiet Place

3) Black Panther

4) Roma

5) Mary Poppins Returns

6) Ready Player One

Possible: A Star Is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, Annihilation

SOUND MIXING

1) A Star Is Born

2) First Man

3) Mary Poppins Returns

4) Roma

5) A Quiet Place

6) Black Panther

Maybe: Bohemian Rhapsody

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) First Man

2) Black Panther

3) Ready Player One

4) Avengers: Infinity War

5) Mary Poppins Returns

6) Solo: A Star Wars Story

Maybe: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Bao

2) Age of Sail

3) Bird Karma

4) Late Afternoon

5) Animal Behavior

6) Weekends

Maybe: Bilby, Pepe Le Morse

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Period. End of Sentence

2) End Game

3) Zion

4) My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes

5) Lifeboat

6) Women of the Gulag

Maybe: Black Sheep

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Caroline

2) Skin

3) Detainment

4) Fauve

5) Marguerite

6) Susotazs

Maybe: Mother

Sooooo...if I'm 100% accurate tomorrow morning (and as I said above, I should hit between 75-80%) that means the following:

Roma leads all films with 10 nominations and is the only film with double digit nominations.  Telluride films earn 37 total nominations...which in terms of what normally happens...the average is 27-28 nominations, would mark 2018 as a stunning year for the Oscar success for films from TFF.  

The nominations total is largely fueled by solid expectations for craft nominations especially for Roma, The Favourite and First Man.  Here's the TFF film breakdown:

Roma (10): Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing

The Favourite (9): Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress (2), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design

First Man (9): Picture, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Film Editing, Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects (should First Man miss on the Best Picture nomination and hit eight total nominees, it will establish a new record for a film with most nominations without getting a Best Picture bid...Mary Poppins Returns could do the same thing)

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3) Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay

Cold War (2): Foreign Language Film, Cinematography

And single nominations for:

Shoplifters: Foreign Language Film

Free Solo: Documentary Feature

Caroline: Live Action Short

Fauve: Live Action Short

Other non-Telluride big players:

A Star Is Born (9) Including Picture, Direction, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay

Black Panther (8): Including Picture, Score and Song

Mary Poppins Returns (8): Including Actress, Score and Song

BlacKkKlansman (7): Including Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay

Vice (7): Including Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay

Green Book (4): Including Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay

If Beale Street Could Talk (4): Including Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Score

Bohemian Rhapsody (3): Including Picture, Actor and Costumes

BUT DON'T TAKE MY WORD FOR IT: PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience

GREEN BOOK WINS PGA

Shaking things up as we get ready to have the Oscar nominees revealed to us tomorrow morning was Green Book's somewhat surprise win as Best Picture from The Producers Guild of America.  It seemed to me that most pundits thought it was a likely showdown between A Star Is Born and Roma.

Green Book's win caused quite the uproar on Film Twitter Saturday and Sunday and also resulted in a number of folks in the biz to proclaim that the Peter Farrelly film was now the new front runner for the Best Picture Oscar supplanting both ASIB and Roma.

I'm not there yet.  I still lean toward a Roma win on Feb. 24th but, as you know, that could change.

Oscar voters begin voting for the winners on Feb. 12th and runs through Feb. 19th.

AND LOOKING AHEAD-BERLIN

The Berlin International Film Festival is set to open on Feb. 7th and runs through the 17th.  Berlin almost always provides a film or two that make it onto the TFF lineup on Labor Day weekend.  Meanwhile, Sundance opens on Thursday and will almost certainly serve as an "excluder" in as far as potential Telluride film choices are concerned.  It almost always does.

Berlin's full lineup is linked here from The Hollywood Reporter

Looking at their announced films one might speculate about possible Telluride plays based on previous TFF appearances and expected release dates.  So...put on your list the following as possible TFF #46 selections:

Opening Night Film The Kindness of Strangers from director Lone Scherfig

Francois Ozon's By the Grace of God

Agnieszka Holland's Mr. Jones (last mentioned in this space under the title Gareth Jones)

Zhang Yimou's One Second

Fatih Akin's The Golden Glove

Agnes Varda's Varda by Agnes

That's your MTFB for today.  I'm planning to have a Special Post up tomorrow mid-morning after the Oscar nominations announcements with the list of nominees and some analysis about Telluride films and the Oscar race in general.  Should be a hoot.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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