MTFB's Almost Final Oscar Winner Predictions / RIP Gene Hackman

MTFB'S ALMOST FINAL OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS

That's right.  "Almost Final".  I finally decided that I'll put up a "Final Final" on Sunday morning so as to have the freshest data for the nine or so categories that are tight.  More on them below.  That said, here are your latest MTFB predictions about who/what wins an Oscar on Sunday night in all 23 categories.  As always, TFF #51 films are in Bold.  A film's previous position is in parentheses to the right of each title.

BEST PICTURE

1) Anora (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Brutalist (3)

4) A Complete Unknown (4)

5) Wicked (5)

6) Emilia Perez (6)

7) I'm Still Here (8)

8) The Substance (7)

9) Dune Part Two (9)

10) Nickel Boys (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Sean Baker/Anora (1)

2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (2)

3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (3)

4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (4)

5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)

2) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)

3) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (2)

4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (4)

5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (5)

BEST ACTOR

1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (1)

2) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (2)

3) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave (3)

4) Domingo Colman/Sing Sing (4)

5) Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez (1)

2) Arian Grande/Wicked (2)

3) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave (4)

4) Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown (3)

5) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain (1)

2) Yura Borisov/Anora (3)

3) Edward Norton/A Complete Unknown (2)

4) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist (4)

5) Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)

2) Nickel Boys (3)

3) A Complete Unknown (2)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Sing Sing (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora (1)

2) A Real Pain (3)

3) The Substance (2)

4) The Brutalist (4)

5) September 5 (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

1) Emilia Perez (2)

2) I'm Still Here (1)

3) The Seed of the Sacred Fig (3)

4) Flow (4)

5) The Girl with the Needle (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Porcelain War (2)

2) No Other Land (1)

3) Black Box Diaries (3)

4) Sugarcane (4)

5) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot (1)

2) Flow (2)

3) Inside Out 2 (3)

4) Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (5)

5) Memoir of a Snail (4)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Nosferatu (2)

3) Dune Part Two (3)

4) Maria (5)

5) Emilia Perez (4)

BEST EDITING

1) Conclave (1)

2) Anora (2)

3) Wicked (4)

4) Emilia Perez (5)

5) The Brutalist (3)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) The Brutalist (2)

3) Nosferatu (3)

4) Conclave (5)

5) Dune Part Two (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Wild Robot (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Wicked (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) El Mal/Emilia Perez (1)

2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight (2)

3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez (3)

4) Never Too Late/Never Too Late (4)

5) Like a Bird/Sing Sing (5)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) Nosferatu (2)

3) Conclave (3)

4) A Complete Unknown (4)

5) Gladiator II (5)

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) Emilia Perez (3)

4) Nosferatu (4)

5) A Different Man (5)

BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) A Complete Unknown (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) The Wild Robot (5)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2)

3) Wicked (3)

4) Better Man (4)

5) Alien: Romulus (5)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Anuja

2) I Am Not a Robot

3) A Lien

4) The Man Who Would Not Remain Silent

5) The Last Ranger

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) Wander to Wonder

2) Beautiful Men

3) The Shadow of the Cypress Tree

4) Yuck!

5) Magic Candles

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) I Am Ready Warden

2) The Only Girl in the Orchestra

3) Instruments of a Beating Heart

4) Incident

5) Death by Numbers

Comments:  Your Oscar pool likely depends on 10 categories.  As always all three Shorts categories are up in the air. The Feature categories with some wiggle room:

Best Actress: Madison and Moore.

Best Actor: Brody and Chalamet.

Best Original Screenplay: Anora, A Real Pain and The Substance.

Best International Feature: Emilia Perez and I'm Still Here.

Best Documentary Feature: Porcelain War and No Other Land.

Best Editing: Conclave and Anora.

Best Sound Design: Dune Part Two, Wicked and A Complete Unknown

As of this morning here's how I am predicting Oscars for TFF #51 films:

Anora (4): Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay.

Emilia Perez (3): Best International Film, Best Supporting Actress and Best Song.

Conclave (2): Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Editing.

A Real Pain (1): Best Supporting Actor.

For a total of 10 Oscars. for TFF #51 films.

Best chances to pickup a "Surprise" win for TFF #51 films:

Conclave: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress and Best Original Score.

No Other Land: Best Documentary.

Anora: Best Supporting Actor and Best Editing.

Nickel Boys: Best Adapted Screenplay

A Real Pain: Best Original Screenplay.

Other non-TFF #51 feature winners that I'm predicting:

The Brutalist (3): Best Actor, Best Original Score and Best Cinematography.

Wicked (2): Best Production Design and Best Costume Design.

Dune Part Two (2): Best Sound Design and Best Visual Effects.

Porcelain War (1): Best Documentary.

The Substance (1): Best Makeup/Hair.

The Wild Robot (1): Best Animated Feature.

I'll have a "Final Final" posted sometime Sunday morning.

RIP GENE HACKMAN

One of the greats has left us.  Authorities in Santa Fe, NM reported overnight that Hackman was found dead in his home along with his wife and dog.  Santa Fe law enforcement say there was no sign of foul play.

In 1974, at the very first Telluride Film Festival, audiences got to see Francis Ford Coppola's The Conversation which features one of Hackman's best performances.

Hackman won two Oscars in his career.  One in 1972 for Best Actor in The French Connection and a second in 1993 for Best Supporting Actor in Unforgiven.

Hackman was 95.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB Oscar Update: Makeup-Hair, Costumes and More / SAG Awards and TFF #51 / Film Independent Spirit Awards and TFF #51 / Misericordia Trailer

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: MAKEUP/HAIR, COSTUMES AND MORE

We're in the stretch run now.  Oscar Night is down to less than week from today.  In today's post I update these categories: Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Sound and Visual Effects.  I last posted predictions for these categories on Feb. 10th.  TFF #51 films are in Bold.  Their previous predicted position is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) Emilia Perez (3)

4) Nosferatu (5)

5) A Different Man (4)

BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) Dune Part Two (3)

2) Wicked (2)

3) A Complete Unknown (1)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) The Wild Robot (5)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) Nosferatu (3)

3) Conclave (2)

4) A Complete Unknown (4)

5) Gladiator II (5)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2)

3) Wicked (3)

4) Better Man (4)

5) Alien: Romulus (5)

Comment: I have no TFF #51 films to win in any of these four categories.  The real battle among these four is Sound Design which appears to be a down to the wire race between Dune 2 and Wicked.  I also wouldn't be shocked if A Complete unknown sneaks on Oscar night.

Based on my latest predictions in the feature categories, here's what MTFB predicts will happen on Sunday night:

Five TFF #51 win nine Oscars

Anora: Best Picture, Direction and Original Screenplay.

Conclave: Adapted Screenplay and Editing.

Emilia Perez: Supporting Actress and Song.

A Real Pain: Supporting Actor.

No Other Land: Documentary.

The rest:

The Brutalist: Actor, Cinematography and Score.

The Substance: Actress, Makeup/Hair.

Wicked: Production Design and Costumes.

Dune Part Two: Sound and Visual Effects.

I'm Still Here: International Feature.

Animated: The Wild Robot.

MTFB is saying it'll be a "spread the wealth" night with no film winning more than three Oscars.  BUT...FINAL MTFB predictions are coming on Thursday.

SAG AWARDS AND TFF #51

It was a good night at the SAG Awards for TFF #51 films.  Telluride films won three of the six film categories.  Zoe Saldana won Supporting Actress for Emilia Perez while Kieran Culkin won Supporting Actor for A Real Pain and Conclave win the big prize being named Best Cast.

Other awards were won by Demi Moore (Best Actress/The Substance ) and Timothee Chalamet (Best Actor/A Complete Unknown).  The Fall Guy won  for Best Stunt Cast.

Moore and Chalamet's wins could portend Oscar wins next week and the Conclave win suggests that Anora's anointing is not a foregone conclusion.  The SAG Best Cast award has about a 50% record of going on to win the Oscar for Best Picture.

FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS AND TFF #51

The Spirit Awards were announced on Saturday and five TFF films were winners of seven of the categories with Anora having a big night winning three awards.  Here are the TFF #51 results:

Anora: Best Feature, Direction and Lead Performance (Madison).

A Real Pain: Best Supporting Performance (Culkin) and Screenplay.

Nickel Boys: Best Cinematography.

No Other Land: Best Documentary.

The complete list of winners is linked here from Film Independent.

MISERICORDIA TRAILER

From YouTube:

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB Oscar Update: Predicting the Winners Part Four / Critics Choice and TFF / Director's Guild and Producer's Guild

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PREDICTING THE WINNERS PART FOUR

Here's the last set of initial predictions for what will win at the Oscar ceremony on March 2nd.  I'll have fresh predictions for Best Picture, Direction and the Acting categories on Thursday.  As always, TFF films are in Bold.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked

2) Conclave

3) Nosferatu

4) A Complete Unknown

5) Gladiator II

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance

2) Wicked

3) Emilia Perez

4) A Different Man

5) Nosferatu  

BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) A Complete Unknown

2) Wicked

3) Dune Part Two

4) Emilia Perez

5) The Wild Robot

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

3) Wicked

4) Better Man

5) Alien: Romulus

Comment: Among these four categories, TFF's best shot at a win looks to be Conclave in costumes and even that seems fairly unlikely.  Maybe the tightest category of any is Sound.  A Complete Unknown, Wicked and Dune Part Two seem to be in dead heat.  It'll be interesting to see if that changes over the next couple of weeks when we re-visit these categories.

CRITICS CHOICE AND TFF

The Critics Choice awards were presented on Friday.  TFF #51 films won seven awards total including a Best Picture win for Sean Baker's Anora.

Other TFF winners included:

Conclave: Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Acting Ensemble.

A Real Pain: Best Comedy (tied with Deadpool & Wolverine), and Supporting Actor (Kieran Culkin).

Emilia Perez: Best Foreign Language Film and Best Song (El Mal).

DIRECTORS' GUILD AND PRODUCERS' GUILD

Probably the most important Guild awards named their "Best of" 2024 on Saturday and both organizations awarded the same film.  Sean Baker won the DGA Best Director for a Feature Film award for Anora.  The PGA also awarded Anora as Best Picture.  The PGA is very interesting as it uses a preferential ballot just like the Academy does for Best Picture.

Also winning the DGA Award for Best First Time Feature was RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys, which, of course, was also a TFF #51 film.

With the three wins over the weekend, DGA, PGA and Critic's Choice, Anora will surely come raring back to the top of the list of predictions for Best Picture (My updated Best Picture predictions will be posted on Thursday).  It seems difficult to concoct plausible scenario for any other picture at this point.  

Anora's stunning set of wins this past weekend also suggests that Mikey Madison is firmly in a real tussle for Best Actress with Demi Moore. Moore had surged over the past few weeks.

As a matter of fact, Anora could be in line to win five of the six Oscars it's nominated for.  I could see it taking Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay and even Editing.  The exception likely being in Supporting Actor where Kieran Culkin seems almost unbeatable and if anyone has any shot at knocking him off the Oscar stage it's probably Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown rather than Anora's Yura Borisov.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB Oscar Update: Shorts / The Precursors' Tale / Oscar Voters: Hear My Plea(s) Please / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SHORTS

For the first time I'm taking a stab at the most difficult Oscar categories to predict both in terms of nominations and ultimate winners.  These may or may not change prior to my final Oscar nomination predictions on Jan. 16th.  This year of the short listed shorts TFF had two films make those lists: A Swim Lesson in Documentary Shorts and  Beautiful Men in Animated Shorts.

Here's where I'm guessing the nominations will land on Jan. 19th:

ANIMATED SHORTS

1) Me

2) Maybe Elephants

3) Bottle George

4) Magic Candles

5)Wander to Wonder

Others: In the Shadow of the Cypress, The 21 and Yuck.

DOCUMENTARY SHORTS

1) Makayla's Voice: A Letter to the World

2) The Only Girl in the Orchestra

3) A Swim Lesson

4) Incident

5) Once Upon a Time in Ukraine

Others: The Quilters, Death by Numbers and Instruments of a Beating Heart.

LIVE ACTION SHORTS

1) The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

2) Dovecote

3) An Orange from Jaffa

4) Room Taken

5) The Masterpiece

Others: Crust, I Am Not a Robot and Clodagh.

THE PERCURSORS' TALE

A bunch of us that try to tell you what's going to happen when Oscar nominations and winners are announced take a look at various "precursor awards".  It's a way to try to divine what the film industry is thinking as we move closer to the nomination reveal and then the Oscar ceremony itself.

And there are, if you choose to look at them, a ton of precursors.  My buddy Mark Johnson of The Awards Alchemist (housed at Erik Anderson's Awards Watch) annually puts together what he refers to as the Big Board of Precursors You can find its current status here.  Mark's Awards Alchemist predictions are linked here.

Next Best Picture's Matt Neglia does a super job of tracking and posting a ton of regional critics organizations choices. For example, Matt posted the results from the Greater Western New York Film Critics Association last week.  Your best access to that coverage is through Matt's X account or his Bluesky account.

I look at precursors too but not nearly at the depth that either Mark or Matt do.  

My focus goes to these precursors:

National Board of Review (NBR)

American Film Institute (AFI)

New York Film Critics Circle (NY)

Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LA)

Critics' Choice Awards (CC)

Golden Globes nominations (and wins) (GG)

National Society of Film Critics (NF)

BAFTA longlist (and nominations list) (BF)

Screen Actors Guild (cast nominations)  (SAG)

Directors Guild of America (DGA)

Producers Guild of America (PGA)

Still to add are the Writers Guild and the actual nominations from BAFTA.  That said, here's where this set of precursors are pointing at the moment (with TFF films in Bold).

On top is Sean Baker's Anora with nine of these precursors naming the film one of the Best of 2024.  Anora makes the following lists (an * indicates that body has named the film Best of 2024): NBR, AFI, CC, GG, NF, LA*, SAG, DGA, BF

Other films break down as follows:

Two films with seven mentions:

The Brutalist: AFI, CC, GG*, NY*, LA, DGA, BF

A Complete Unknown: NBR, AFI, CC, GG, SAG, DGA, BF

Three films with six mentions:

Conclave: AFI, CC, GG, SAG, DGA, BF

Emilia Perez: AFI, CC, GG*, SAG, DGA, BF

Wicked: NBR*, AFI, CC, GG, SAG, BF

Two Films with four mentions:

Dune Part Two: AFI, CC, GG, BF

Nickel Boys: AFI, CC, GG, NF*

Two films with three mentions:

Sing Sing: NBR, AFI, CC

The Substance: CC, GG, BF

And those could well be your 10 Oscar Best Picture nominated films. 

The only other film with more than one mention is A Real Pain with two (NBR, AFI).  

It looks to me like this list of precursors suggest that the six films with six or more mentions are locked for a Best Picture nomination with Dune Part Two, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance and A Real Pain duking it out for the other four slots.  It also seems to me that both A Complete Unknown and The Substance are both pretty hot right now.

The films with single mentions:

Babygirl: NBR

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga: NBR

Gladiator II: NBR

Juror #2: NBR

Queer: NBR

September 5: GG

Challengers: GG

All We Imagine as Light: NF

The Apprentice: BF

Kneecap: BF

The Apprentice BF

We'll see how the Writers Guild and actual BAFTA nominations alter this picture next week (depending on possible further delays because of the L.A: wildfires).

OSCAR VOTERS: HEAR MY PLEA(S) PLEASE

I would love to see:

From Conclave: Tucci and Rossellini which are both possible but not at all certain.  I'm also an advocate for Sergio Castellitto who plays the role of Cardinal Tedesco...the "villain" of the film.

Some love...any love for September 5 or Saturday Night.

And, again, I will bemoan the fact that Zurawski v. Texas wasn't on any shortlist and isn't eligible for Best Picture.  Write it in!

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice from Gold Derby.

Robbie Williams for Better man from Pop Culture Confidential.

Behind the Scenes of All We Imagine as Light from IndieWire.

Sebastian Stan on The Apprentice from Awards Watch.

Robbie Williams for Better Man from Time.com.

Conclave writer Peter Straughan from Awards Radar.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / MTFB Predicted Nomination Totals / SAG and DGA Nominations and TFF / IndieWire's 50+ Most Anticipated and TFF

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Before we get to this post's Oscar nomination predictions, The Academy last night extended the nomination voting window by two days and moved the announcement of nominees to Sunday, January 19th due to the L.A. fires.  Now, onto the predictions which seem sort of a small consideration in light of what's going on in Southern California.

Here are updated nomination predictions for the Screenplay categories as well as for Best Costume Design, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects. These categories were last predicted on Dec. 26th.  A film's previous rank appears to the right in parentheses. TFF #51 films are in Bold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)

2) Emilia Perez (2)

3) Sing Sing (3)

4) Nickel Boys (4)

5) Dune Part Two (5)

Others: A Complete Unknown, Wicked and The Room Next Door.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora (1)

2) The Brutalist (2)

3) A Real Pain (3)

4) The Substance (4)

5) September 5 (5)

Others: Hard Truths, All We Imagine as Light and The Seed of the Sacred Fig.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) Dune Part Two (2)

3) Gladiator II (4)

4) Maria (3)

5) Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (5)

Others: Nosferatu, Conclave and Blitz.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) Dune Part Two (3)

4) Nosferatu (4)

5) A Different Man (5)

Others: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Emilia Perez, The Apprentice.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (3)

3) Wicked (4)

4) Gladiator II (2)

5) Better Man (-)

Others: Twisters, Mufasa: The Lion King and Alien: Romulus

MTFB PREDICTED NOMINATION TOTALS

As we look down the barrel, we're only eight days away from Oscar Nomination morning.  As of the latest MTFB predictions, these are your accumulated totals:

I'm expecting Emilia Perez to lead all films with 11 nominations: Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress (Saldana), Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Score, Song (x2) and Sound.

The Brutalist (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Brody), Supporting Actress (Jones), Supporting Actor (Pearce), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score and Production Design.

Dune Part Two (9): Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.

Wicked (8): Best Picture, Actress (Erivo), Supporting Actress (Grande), Production Design, Sound, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.

Conclave (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Score.

Anora (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Madison), Supporting Actor (Borisov), Original Screenplay and Editing.

Gladiator II (5): Best Supporting Actor (Washington), Production Design, Sound, Costumes and Visual Effects.

Nickel Boys (4): Best Picture, Direction, Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography.

A Complete Unknown (4): Best Picture, Actor (Chalamet), Supporting Actor (Norton) and Sound.

A Real Pain (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Culkin) and Original Screenplay.

Sing Sing (3): Best Picture, Actor (Domingo) and Adapted Screenplay.

Maria (3): Best Actress (Jolie), Cinematography and Costumes.

The Wild Robot (3): Best Animated Feature, Score and Song.

The Substance (3): Best Actress (Moore), Original Screenplay and Makeup/Hair.

Nosferatu (3): Best Cinematography, Production Design and Makeup/Hair.

Challengers (2): Best Original Score and Song.

Single nominations for:

The Seed of the Scared Fig: International Feature.

I'm Still Here: International Feature.

The Girl with the Needle: International Feature

Vermiglio: International Feature.

Inside Out 2: Animated Feature

Flow: Animated Feature

Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl: Animated Feature.

Memoir of a Snail: Animated Feature.

Sugarcane: Documentary Feature.

No Other Land: Documentary Feature.

Daughters: Documentary Feature.

Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat: Documentary Feature.

Dahomey: Documentary Feature.

Queer: Actor (Craig)

The Piano Lesson: Supporting Actress (Deadwyler).

September 5: Original Screenplay.

The Six Triple Eight: Song.

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice: Costumes.

A Different Man: Makeup/Hair.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: Visual Effects.

Better Man: Visual Effects.

All told MTFB says 11 TFF #51 films land 40 total nominations.

On Monday, I'll have predictions for the Shorts categories and then full predictions for all 23 categories on Thursday the 16th.

SAG AND DGA NOMINATIONS AND TFF

The Screen Actors Guild announced their 2024 nominees for film yesterday via a press release as opposed the originally planned live announcement.  That was scrapped as a result of the massive wild fires that are still ablaze this morning in the Los Angeles area.

In each of the six film categories here were the nominees from TFF #51 films:

Best Actor: Ralph Fiennes/Conclave.

Best Actress: Mikey Madison/Anora and Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez.

Best Supporting Actor: Yura Borisov/Anora, Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain and Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice.

Best Supporting Actress: Danielle Deadwyler/The Piano Lesson and Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez.

Best Cast: Anora, Conclave and Emilia Perez.

TFF had no films nominated in the Action/Stunt Ensemble category.

Kind of surprising omissions: Angelina Jolie (Maria) in Lead Actress and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) for Supporting Actress.

Lots of strength for A Complete Unknown and Wicked.

The complete set of SAG nominees are linked here.

Meanwhile the Director's Guild of America (DGA) named its five nominees for Outstanding Directing for 2025 yesterday as well.  Three TFF #51 directors were nominated: Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez, Sean Baker/Anora  and Edward Berger/Conclave.  The other two nominees are Brady Corbet/The Brutalist and James Mangold/A Complete Unknown.

At present, the Producers Guild is set to announce their nominees on Friday but that could change due to the fires as well.

INDIEWIRE'S 50+ MOST ANTICIPATED AND TFF #52

IndieWire published its list of 50+ films that they're most excited about for 2025 last week and from the list here are the films that, on their face, seem Telluride-friendly:

The Bride/Gyllenhaal

Bugonia/Lanthimos

Marty Supreme/Safdie

Die, My Love/Ramsay

Father, Mother, Sister, Brother/Jarmusch

Frankenstein/Del Toro

Materialists/Song

The Phoenician Scheme/Anderson

Untitled Baumbach

The complete article is linked here.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB Oscar Update: Lead Acting and More / THR's Most Anticipated for 2025 / Interviews and Profiles

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: LEAD ACTING AND MORE

I'm updating the Lead Acting categories today as well as Cinematography, Editing and Production Design.  These categories were last updated on Dec. 19th.  An actor's/film's previous position is indicated in (parentheses).  TFF #51 films are in Bold. 

BEST ACTRESS

1) Mikey Madison/Anora (1)

2) Angelina Jolie/Maria (4)

3) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (3)

4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (2)

5) Demi Moore/The Substance (5)

Others: Marianne Jean-Baptiste/Hard Truths, Nicole Kidman/Babygirl and Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here.

BEST ACTOR

1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (2)

2) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave (1)

3) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (3)

4) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing (4)

5) Daniel Craig/Queer (5)

Others: Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice, Jesse Eisenberg/A Real Pain and Sebastian Stan/A Different Man.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Brutalist (2)

2) Maria (3)

3) Dune Part Two (1)

4) Nickel Boys (4)

5) Nosferatu (5)

Others: Conclave, Wicked Part 1 and The Girl with a Needle.

BEST EDITING

1) Conclave (1)

2) Emilia Perez (4)

3) The Brutalist (2)

4) Dune Part Two (3)

5) Anora (5)

Others: September 5, Gladiator II and Wicked Part 1.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Wicked Part 1 (1)

2) Dune Part Two (2)

3) The Brutalist (3)

4) Gladiator II (4)

5) Nosferatu (5)

Others: Conclave, Blitz and Emilia Perez.

Comment: The Golden Globes are on Sunday.  It'll be interesting to see how they shake out.  Maybe they give us some sense about the how the Oscar wind is blowing.  Oscar nomination voting begins next week on Wednesday, Jan. 8th.  I'll have some TFF Golden Globes coverage here on Monday.

THE HOLLYWOOD REPORTER'S MOST ANTICIPATED FOR 2025

The Hollywood Reporter put up their list of most anticipated films for 2025 this week.  from that list there are six films that could be TFF #52 players:

After the Hunt/Guadagnino

The Bride/Gyllenhaal

Bugonia/Lanthimos

Frankenstein/Del Toro

Marty Supreme/J. Safdie

Untitled Baumbach/Baumbach

Here's the complete list from THR.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain from The Playlist.

Behind the Scenes of Better Man from Gold Derby.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / The MTFB Nomination Totals / Interviews and Profiles: Eisenberg, Baker and Gracey

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Here are updated nomination predictions for the Screenplay categories as well as for Best Costume Design, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects. These categories were last predicted on Dec. 12th.  A film's previous rank appears to the right in parentheses. TFF #51 films are in Bold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)

2) Emilia Perez (2)

3) Sing Sing (3)

4) Nickel Boys (4)

5) Dune Part Two (5)

Others: A Complete Unknown, The Room Next Door and Wicked Part One.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora (1)

2) The Brutalist (3)

3) A Real Pain (2)

4) The Substance (5)

5) September 5 (4)

Others: Hard Truths, All We Imagine as Light and The Seed of the Sacred Fig.

BEST COSTUMES

1) Wicked Part One (1)

2) Dune Part Two (2)

3) Maria (4)

4) Gladiator II (3)

5) Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice (-)

Others: Nosferatu, Conclave and A Complete Unknown.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance (2)

2) Wicked Part One (3)

3) Dune Part Two (1)

4) Nosferatu (4)

5) A Different Man (-)

Others: Emilia Perez, Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice and Maria.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Gladiator II (2)

3) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (3)

4) Wicked Part One (4)

5) Twisters (5)

Others: Better Man, Mufasa: The Lion King and Alien: Romulus.

MTFB NOMINATION TOTALS UPDATED

At the moment I am predicting 12 TFF #51 films to earn 40 nominations with another four films that could sneak into a nomination.  Also among those 16 films are 20 other possible nominations.  The following totals for nominations and possibilities:

Emilia Perez (11 nominations and another three possibles): Best Picture, Direction, International Feature, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress (Saldana), Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Score, Song (El Mal), Song (Mi Camino) and Sound.  Possibles: Supporting Actress (Gomez), Cinematography and Makeup/Hair.

Conclave (Seven nominations and another four possibles): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Rossellini),  Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Score.  Possibles: Supporting Actor (Tucci), Cinematography, Production Design and Costumes.

Anora (Six nominations): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Madison), Supporting Actor (Borisov), Original Screenplay and Editing.

Nickel Boys (Four nominations and one possible): Best Picture, Direction, Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography.  Possible: Supporting Actress (Ellis-Taylor).

A Real Pain (Three nominations and one possible): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Culkin) and Original Screenplay.  Possible: Best Actor (Eisenberg).

Maria (Three nominations and one possible): Best Actress (Jolie), Cinematography and Costumes.  Possible: Makeup/Hair.

September 5 (One nomination and two possible): Best Original Screenplay.  Possibles: Best Picture and Editing.

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (One nomination and one possible): Best International Feature.  Possible: Original Screenplay.

Will & Harper (One nomination and one possible): Best Documentary.  Possible: Song (Harper and Will Go West)

Memoir of a Snail (One nomination): Best Animated Feature.

No Other Land (One nomination): Best Documentary.

The Piano Lesson (One nomination): Best Supporting Actress (Deadwyler).

Other films with the possibility of a nomination:

The Apprentice: Best Actor (Stan) and Supporting Actor (Strong).

Piece by Piece: Best Animated Feature and Song (Piece by Piece).

All We Imagine as Light: Best Original Screenplay.

Better Man: Best Visual Effects.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain from Pop Culture Confidential.

Sean Baker for Anora from Pop Culture Confidential.

Michael Gracey for Better Man from IndieWire.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com