Oscar Night and TFF #51

OSCAR NIGHT AND TFF #51

Here are your results from Oscar #97.  TFF #51 films are in Bold.

Best Picture: Anora. 

Best Direction: Sean Baker/Anora. 

Best Actress: Mikey Madison/Anora

Best Actor:  Winner: Adrien Brody/The Brutalist.  

Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez. 

Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain. 

Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave. 

Best Original Screenplay: Anora.  

Best International Feature: Winner: I'm Still Here.

Best Documentary Feature: No Other Land.

Best Animated Feature: Flow.

Best Cinematography: The Brutalist.

Best Editing: Anora.

Best Original Score: The Brutalist. 

Best Original Song: El Mal/Emilia Perez. 

Best Production Design: Wicked.

Best Costume Design: Wicked. 

Best Makeup/Hair: The Substance.

Best Sound Design: Dune Part Two. 

Best Visual Effects: Dune Part Two.

Best Live Action Short: I Am Not a Robot.

Best Animated Short: In the Shadow of the Cypress.

Best Documentary Short: The Only Girl in the Orchestra.

TYFF #51 films win 10 Oscars.

Anora (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay and Editing.

Emilia Perez (2): Supporting Actress, Song.

Conclave (1): Adapted Screenplay.

A Real Pain (1): Supporting Actor.

No Other Land: Documentary.

The Best Picture Oscar returns to Telluride with Anora.  It's the first TFF film to win Best Picture since 2021 and Nomadland. 

Anora was #3 on the People's Telluride poll with a 4.44 rating.  It was #1 among the Pros at 4.53.  Consequently it topped the TFF Composite poll with an 8.97 rating. That was good enough to put Anora in the All-Time Top Ten of the TFF Composite as well the All-time Top Ten of the Professionals.

MTFB goes 16 of 23 for a 69.6% success rate.  Missed all three shorts categories but was 80% on feature categories.  Among the categories I missed I had five of those seven listed as the possible "upsets".

More on Thursday.

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MTFB Special: Final Final Oscar Predictions

 MTFB SPECIAL: FINAL FINAL OSCAR PREDICITONS

Here's what I'm saying will happen tonight in all 23 Academy Awards categories (TTF #51 films in Bold):

Best Picture: Winner: Anora.  Possible Upset: Conclave.

Best Direction: Winner: Sean Baker/Anora.  Possible Upset: Brady Corbet/The Brutalist

Best Actress: Winner: Demi Moore/The Substance.  Possible "Upset": Mikey Madison/Anora

Best Actor:  Winner: Adrien Brody/The Brutalist.  Possible Upset: Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown.

Best Supporting Actress: Winner: Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez.  Possible Upset: Ariana Grande/Wicked or Isabella Rossellini/Conclave.

Best Supporting Actor: Winner: Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain.  Possible Upset: Edward Norton/ A Complete Unknown.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Winner: Conclave.  Possible Upset: Nickel Boys.

Best Original Screenplay: Winner: Anora.  Possible Upset: A Real Pain.

Best International Feature: Winner: I'm Still Here.  Possible Upset: Emilia Perez.

Best Documentary Feature: Winner: Porcelain War.  Possible Upset: No Other Land.

Best Animated Feature: winner: The Wild Robot.  Possible Upset: Flow.

Best Cinematography: Winner: The Brutalist.  Possible Upset: Nosferatu.

Best Editing: Conclave.  Possible Upset: Anora.

Best Original Score: Winner: The Brutalist.  Possible Upset: Conclave.

Best Original Song: Winner: El Mal/Emilia Perez.  Possible Upset: The Journey/The Six Triple Eight.

Best Production Design: Winner: Wicked.  Possible Upset: The Brutalist.

Best Costume Design: Winner: Wicked.  Possible Upset: Nosferatu or A Complete Unknown.

Best Makeup/Hair: Winner: The Substance.  Possible Upset: Wicked.

Best Sound Design: Winner: Dune Part Two.  Possible Upset: Wicked or A Complete Unknown.

Best Visual Effects: Winner Dune Part Two.  Possible Upset: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.

Best Live Action Short: Winner: A Lien.  Possible Upset: Anuja. (But who knows?)

Best Animated Short: Winner: Yuck!.  Possible Upset: Wander to Wonder. (But who knows?)

Best Documentary Short: Winner: I Am Ready Warden.  Possible Upset: The Only Girl in the Orchestra.

 

If I'm 100% accurate:

TFF films win eight Oscars:

Anora (3): Best Picture, Direction and Original Screnplay.

Conclave (2): Best Adapted Screenplay and Editing.

Emilia Perez (2): Best Supporting Actress and Song.

A Real Pain (1): Best Supporting Actor.

Other non-TFF films with multiple wins:

The Brutalist (3): Best Actor, Cinematography and Score.

The Substance (2): Best Actress and Makeup/Hair.

Wicked (2): Best Production Design and Costume Design.

Dune Part Two (2): Best Sound Design and Visual Effects.

My prediction success rate over the past several years:

2024: 19/23 82.6%

2023: 18/23 78.3% 

2022: 21/23 91.3% 

2021: 16/23 69.6% 

2020: 19/24 79.2% 

2019: 19/24 79.2% 

2018: 21/24 87.5% 

2017: 15/24 62.5% 

2016: 15/24 62.5% 

2015: 20/24 83.3% 

2014: 22/24 91.7% 

My lifetime batting average: 205/260.  Success rate: 78.9%.  Let's see what happens tonight!!!!!

 

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MTFB's Almost Final Oscar Winner Predictions / RIP Gene Hackman

MTFB'S ALMOST FINAL OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS

That's right.  "Almost Final".  I finally decided that I'll put up a "Final Final" on Sunday morning so as to have the freshest data for the nine or so categories that are tight.  More on them below.  That said, here are your latest MTFB predictions about who/what wins an Oscar on Sunday night in all 23 categories.  As always, TFF #51 films are in Bold.  A film's previous position is in parentheses to the right of each title.

BEST PICTURE

1) Anora (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Brutalist (3)

4) A Complete Unknown (4)

5) Wicked (5)

6) Emilia Perez (6)

7) I'm Still Here (8)

8) The Substance (7)

9) Dune Part Two (9)

10) Nickel Boys (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Sean Baker/Anora (1)

2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (2)

3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (3)

4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (4)

5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)

2) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)

3) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (2)

4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (4)

5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (5)

BEST ACTOR

1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (1)

2) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (2)

3) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave (3)

4) Domingo Colman/Sing Sing (4)

5) Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez (1)

2) Arian Grande/Wicked (2)

3) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave (4)

4) Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown (3)

5) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain (1)

2) Yura Borisov/Anora (3)

3) Edward Norton/A Complete Unknown (2)

4) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist (4)

5) Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)

2) Nickel Boys (3)

3) A Complete Unknown (2)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Sing Sing (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora (1)

2) A Real Pain (3)

3) The Substance (2)

4) The Brutalist (4)

5) September 5 (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

1) Emilia Perez (2)

2) I'm Still Here (1)

3) The Seed of the Sacred Fig (3)

4) Flow (4)

5) The Girl with the Needle (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Porcelain War (2)

2) No Other Land (1)

3) Black Box Diaries (3)

4) Sugarcane (4)

5) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot (1)

2) Flow (2)

3) Inside Out 2 (3)

4) Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (5)

5) Memoir of a Snail (4)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Nosferatu (2)

3) Dune Part Two (3)

4) Maria (5)

5) Emilia Perez (4)

BEST EDITING

1) Conclave (1)

2) Anora (2)

3) Wicked (4)

4) Emilia Perez (5)

5) The Brutalist (3)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) The Brutalist (2)

3) Nosferatu (3)

4) Conclave (5)

5) Dune Part Two (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Wild Robot (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Wicked (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) El Mal/Emilia Perez (1)

2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight (2)

3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez (3)

4) Never Too Late/Never Too Late (4)

5) Like a Bird/Sing Sing (5)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) Nosferatu (2)

3) Conclave (3)

4) A Complete Unknown (4)

5) Gladiator II (5)

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) Emilia Perez (3)

4) Nosferatu (4)

5) A Different Man (5)

BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) A Complete Unknown (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) The Wild Robot (5)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2)

3) Wicked (3)

4) Better Man (4)

5) Alien: Romulus (5)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Anuja

2) I Am Not a Robot

3) A Lien

4) The Man Who Would Not Remain Silent

5) The Last Ranger

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) Wander to Wonder

2) Beautiful Men

3) The Shadow of the Cypress Tree

4) Yuck!

5) Magic Candles

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) I Am Ready Warden

2) The Only Girl in the Orchestra

3) Instruments of a Beating Heart

4) Incident

5) Death by Numbers

Comments:  Your Oscar pool likely depends on 10 categories.  As always all three Shorts categories are up in the air. The Feature categories with some wiggle room:

Best Actress: Madison and Moore.

Best Actor: Brody and Chalamet.

Best Original Screenplay: Anora, A Real Pain and The Substance.

Best International Feature: Emilia Perez and I'm Still Here.

Best Documentary Feature: Porcelain War and No Other Land.

Best Editing: Conclave and Anora.

Best Sound Design: Dune Part Two, Wicked and A Complete Unknown

As of this morning here's how I am predicting Oscars for TFF #51 films:

Anora (4): Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay.

Emilia Perez (3): Best International Film, Best Supporting Actress and Best Song.

Conclave (2): Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Editing.

A Real Pain (1): Best Supporting Actor.

For a total of 10 Oscars. for TFF #51 films.

Best chances to pickup a "Surprise" win for TFF #51 films:

Conclave: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress and Best Original Score.

No Other Land: Best Documentary.

Anora: Best Supporting Actor and Best Editing.

Nickel Boys: Best Adapted Screenplay

A Real Pain: Best Original Screenplay.

Other non-TFF #51 feature winners that I'm predicting:

The Brutalist (3): Best Actor, Best Original Score and Best Cinematography.

Wicked (2): Best Production Design and Best Costume Design.

Dune Part Two (2): Best Sound Design and Best Visual Effects.

Porcelain War (1): Best Documentary.

The Substance (1): Best Makeup/Hair.

The Wild Robot (1): Best Animated Feature.

I'll have a "Final Final" posted sometime Sunday morning.

RIP GENE HACKMAN

One of the greats has left us.  Authorities in Santa Fe, NM reported overnight that Hackman was found dead in his home along with his wife and dog.  Santa Fe law enforcement say there was no sign of foul play.

In 1974, at the very first Telluride Film Festival, audiences got to see Francis Ford Coppola's The Conversation which features one of Hackman's best performances.

Hackman won two Oscars in his career.  One in 1972 for Best Actor in The French Connection and a second in 1993 for Best Supporting Actor in Unforgiven.

Hackman was 95.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Makeup-Hair, Costumes and More / SAG Awards and TFF #51 / Film Independent Spirit Awards and TFF #51 / Misericordia Trailer

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: MAKEUP/HAIR, COSTUMES AND MORE

We're in the stretch run now.  Oscar Night is down to less than week from today.  In today's post I update these categories: Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Sound and Visual Effects.  I last posted predictions for these categories on Feb. 10th.  TFF #51 films are in Bold.  Their previous predicted position is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) Emilia Perez (3)

4) Nosferatu (5)

5) A Different Man (4)

BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) Dune Part Two (3)

2) Wicked (2)

3) A Complete Unknown (1)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) The Wild Robot (5)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) Nosferatu (3)

3) Conclave (2)

4) A Complete Unknown (4)

5) Gladiator II (5)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2)

3) Wicked (3)

4) Better Man (4)

5) Alien: Romulus (5)

Comment: I have no TFF #51 films to win in any of these four categories.  The real battle among these four is Sound Design which appears to be a down to the wire race between Dune 2 and Wicked.  I also wouldn't be shocked if A Complete unknown sneaks on Oscar night.

Based on my latest predictions in the feature categories, here's what MTFB predicts will happen on Sunday night:

Five TFF #51 win nine Oscars

Anora: Best Picture, Direction and Original Screenplay.

Conclave: Adapted Screenplay and Editing.

Emilia Perez: Supporting Actress and Song.

A Real Pain: Supporting Actor.

No Other Land: Documentary.

The rest:

The Brutalist: Actor, Cinematography and Score.

The Substance: Actress, Makeup/Hair.

Wicked: Production Design and Costumes.

Dune Part Two: Sound and Visual Effects.

I'm Still Here: International Feature.

Animated: The Wild Robot.

MTFB is saying it'll be a "spread the wealth" night with no film winning more than three Oscars.  BUT...FINAL MTFB predictions are coming on Thursday.

SAG AWARDS AND TFF #51

It was a good night at the SAG Awards for TFF #51 films.  Telluride films won three of the six film categories.  Zoe Saldana won Supporting Actress for Emilia Perez while Kieran Culkin won Supporting Actor for A Real Pain and Conclave win the big prize being named Best Cast.

Other awards were won by Demi Moore (Best Actress/The Substance ) and Timothee Chalamet (Best Actor/A Complete Unknown).  The Fall Guy won  for Best Stunt Cast.

Moore and Chalamet's wins could portend Oscar wins next week and the Conclave win suggests that Anora's anointing is not a foregone conclusion.  The SAG Best Cast award has about a 50% record of going on to win the Oscar for Best Picture.

FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS AND TFF #51

The Spirit Awards were announced on Saturday and five TFF films were winners of seven of the categories with Anora having a big night winning three awards.  Here are the TFF #51 results:

Anora: Best Feature, Direction and Lead Performance (Madison).

A Real Pain: Best Supporting Performance (Culkin) and Screenplay.

Nickel Boys: Best Cinematography.

No Other Land: Best Documentary.

The complete list of winners is linked here from Film Independent.

MISERICORDIA TRAILER

From YouTube:

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MTFB Oscar Update: Winners Predictions-Cinematography and More / Bonus Update: Best Picture / SAG on Sunday / Trailer and Release for Thank You Very Much / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS PREDICTIONS: CINEMATOGRAPHY AND MORE

Oscar voting is CLOSED!  The ballot deadline was Tuesday evening.  Now we wait...  

I'm updating five categories today that were last posted on Feb. 6th.  As always TFF #51 films are Bold and their previous position on the chart is to the right in parentheses.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Nosferatu (3)

3) Dune Part Two (2)

4) Emilia Perez (5)

5) Maria (4)

BEST EDITING

1) Conclave (1)

2) Anora (2)

3) The Brutalist (3)

4) Wicked (5)

5) Emilia Perez (4)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) The Brutalist (2)

3) Nosferatu (5)

4) Dune Part Two (3)

5) Conclave (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Wild Robot (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Wicked (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) El Mal/Emilia Perez (1)

2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight (2)

3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez (3)

4) Never Too Late/Never Too Late (5)

5) Like a Bird/Sing Sing (4)

 Comment:  Currently I have TFF #51 films winning two of these five Oscars with Conclave taking Editing (though if Anora wins here that'll keep Editing in the TFF #51 family) and Emilia Perez taking Original Song.  The other "Best Chance" of a pickup is Conclave in Original Score.  At the moment I have Conclave winning Adapted Screenplay and Editing.  If it does upset The Brutalist for Score then maybe an upset is brewing in favor of Conclave over Anora for Best Picture.  

BONUS UPDATE: BEST PICTURE

I'm not actually due for an update of the Best Picture race until the 27th but thought I'd give it a quick looksee.

1) Anora (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Brutalist (4)

4) A Complete Unknown (3)

5) Wicked (5)

6) Emilia Perez (6)

7) The Substance (7)

8) I'm Still Here (8)

9) Dune Part Two (9)

10) Nickel Boys (10)

Comment: The movement of note is bit of a boost for The Brutalist and a bit of a lag for A Complete Unknown.  Conclave seems best poised to upset Anora's strong hold on the top prize.  Did it's four BAFTA wins indicate something?  

SAG ON SUNDAY

The Screen Actors Guild (SAG-Aftra) happen Sunday night at 8:00pm Eastern/5:00pm Pacific.  They're on Netflix.  There are six categories for film.  Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Cast and Stunt Cast.  All but Stunt Cast, perhaps, shine light on The Oscars.

Best Actress:  If Mikey Madison wins...that's another indicator that Anora has the BP Oscar sewn up.  If Demi Moore, once regarded as the frontrunner, grabs this trophy then Best Actress could be a nail-biter on Oscar night.

Best Actor:  Adrien Brody is looking strong and he needs a win to boost The Brutalist's chance at Best Picture.  Timothee Chalamet could win and that's essential for A Complete Unknown to have any shot at Best Picture.  A Ralph Fiennes win, while unlikely but not outside the realm of possibility, would be huge indicator that Conclave is upsetting Anora.

Best Supporting Actress: Despite all the controversy surrounding Emilia Perez, Zoe Saldana still looks strong for SAG and Oscar.  A Monica Barbaro upset combined with a Chalamet win for Actor might mean A Complete Unknown has slipped into the Best Picture top spot. 

Best Supporting Actor: At this point I think everyone has determined that Kieran Culkin (like Saldana) has this in the bag.  As with Chalamet and Barbaro, an Edward Norton win aids A Complete Unknown.

Best Cast: If any film other than Anora wins this there are real chances that the Oscar is going somewhere else.  It wouldn't doom Anora which has had such incredible precursor success that it remains the big favorite for Oscar night.  Wins for either Conclave or A Complete Unknown would make Oscar night very intriguing.

SAG Guesses: Madison, Brody, Saldana, Culkin, Anora.  Four of the five categories go to TFF #51 films.  Tune into Netflix on Sunday to find out.

The full list of SAG nominees is linked here.

TRAILER AND RELEASE FOR THANK YOU VERY MUCH

A number of outlets reported this week that Alex Braverman's Andy Kaufman documentary that screened as a part of TFF #50 has a release date of Marc. 28th.  Drafthouse also released a trailer for the doc.  Here that is via YouTube:

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Director Adam Eliot for Memoir of a Snail from The Film Stage.

Composer Volker Bertelmann for Conclave from The Contending.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Oscar Winners Predictions: Screenplays and More / BAFTA and TFF #51 / Writers' Guild and TFF #51

 MTFB OSCAR WINNERS PREDICTIONS: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

We're under two weeks to Oscar night.  Today I am updating predictions for both screenplay categories as well as International , Animated and Documentary features.  These categories were first predicted two weeks back on Feb. 3rd.  As always, TFF films are Bold.  A film's previous ranking is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)

2) A Complete Unknown (2)

3) Nickel Boys (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Sing Sing (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora (1)

2) The Substance (3)

3) A Real Pain (4)

4) The Brutalist (2)

5) September 5 (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) I'm Still Here (1)

2) Emilia Perez (3)

3) The Seed of the Sacred Fig (2)

4) Flow  (4)

5) The Girl with the Needle (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot (1)

2) Flow (2)

3) Inside Out 2 (3)

4) Memoir of a Snail (5)

5) Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (4)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) No Other Land (1)

2) Porcelain War (4)

3) Black Box Diaries (3)

4) Sugarcane (2)

5) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (5)

Comments:  Despite the backlash, Emilia Perez still looks like it has a real shot at the International Feature Oscar.  I still have it behind I'm Still Here but it feels close.  Additionally, Porcelain War has surged in the Documentary category.  The biggest lock from these categories seems to be Conclave in Adapted Screenplay.

Should these predictions prove out, TFF #51 films would win three of the five categories.

BAFTA AND TFF #51

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their winners on Sunday.  each with Conclave leading the way with four wins including Best Film. Four TFF #51 films landed a least two BAFTAs including Conclave with four wins including Best Film.

Here's the rundown of  TFF #51 films' BAFTA wins:

Conclave: Best Film, Best British Film, Adapted Screenplay and Editing.  

Anora: Best Actress (Madison) and Casting.

Emilia Perez: Best Film Not in the English Language and Best Supporting Actress (Saldana).

A Real Pain: Best Supporting Actor (Culkin) and Original Screenplay.

Among non-TFF films The Brutalist had four wins as well for Best Direction, Actor (Brody), Cinematography and Score.

The Conclave win for Best Film gives it a little life for Oscar night.  Wins for Saldana and Culkin cement their status for Supporting Oscars and all of the hubbub regarding Emilia Perez didn't seem to slow it down in London.

TFF #51 films were nominated for a total of  45 awards.

WRITERS' GUILD AND TFF #51

Two TFF #51 films picked up Writers' Guild of America awards on Saturday night.  Sean Baker won for Anora as Best Original Screenplay while RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes shared the trophy for Nickel Boys as Best Adapted Screenplay.

These results are likely indicative of an Anora Oscar win in two weeks.  The Nickel Boys win is likely less predictive as Conclave was ineligible under WGA rules.  Most of the Oscar prediction community thinks Conclave is the favorite.  Currently 29 out of the 34 Gold Derby experts are predicting Conclave to pick up the Oscar win.

Here is the complete list of winners from the WGA.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Winners Predicitons: Above the Line / Looking Forward to Cannes / Trailer for The Friend / Interviews and Profiles: The Seed of the Sacred Fig and Nickel Boys

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS PREDICTIONS: ABOVE THE LINE

The difference two weeks can make.  Since the last posting of theses six "Above the Line" categories, the Karla Sofia Gascon implosion has done major damage to the Oscar chances of Emilia Perez and the 1-2-3 blitz from last weekend of Anora winning Best Picture from the Critics' Choice as well as the Producers' Guild and the directing trophy from the Directors' Guild has re-shaped the Oscar map.  Here's where we are as of this morning.  As always TTFF films are Bold and a film/performer's position from the last set of predictions is indicated in parentheses to the right.

BEST PICTURE

1) Anora (4)

2) Conclave (3)

3) A Complete Unknown (5)

4) The Brutalist (2)

5) Wicked (6)

6) Emilia Perez (1)

7) The Substance (7)

8) I'm Still Here (10)

9) Dune Part Two (9)

10) Nickel Boys (8)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Sean Baker/Anora (3)

2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (1)

3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (4)

4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (5)

5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (2)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)

2) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (3)

3) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)

4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (5)

5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (4)

BEST ACTOR

1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (2)

2) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (1)

3) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave (3)

4) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing (4)

5) Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez (1)

2) Ariana Grande/Wicked (2)

3) Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown (4)

4) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave (3)

5) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain (1)

2) Edward Norton/A Complete Unknown (2)

3) Yura Borisov/Anora (4)

4) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist (3)

5) Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice (5)

Comment: As of today's post, MTFB is predicting TFF #51 films to win of these six categories: Picture, Direction and both Supporting Acting awards.

Anora's ascendance is clear as is the Emilia Perez debacle.  I was actually surprised that Emilia Perez only dropped to #6 in Best Picture and the Zoe Saldana remains viable for a Best Supporting Actress film for the film.

Oscar voting is open and we wait to hear from the BAFTAs on Sunday.

LOOKING FORWARD TO CANNES

Jordan Ruimy of World of Reel has his annual speculation list up and running for films that might be selected for Cannes.  As I always like to do at this time of year, I checked it put to see what titles jumped out as possible considerations for TFF #52.  From his lengthy list, here are some films that could screen at Cannes and then make the trip to southwestern Colorado (the order is as they appear in Ruimy's piece):

Die, My Love (Ramsay)

The Mastermind/Reichardt

The Way of the Wind (Malick)

Young Mother (Dardennes)

Orphan (Nemes)

The Love That Remains (Palmason)

The Magnificent Life of Sylvain Pagnol (Chomet)

Bugonia (Lanthimos)

In the Hands of Dante (Schnabel)

Ruimy's complete list is here.

TRAILER FOR THE FRIEND

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Behind the Scenes of The Seed of the Sacred Fig.

RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys from The Hollywood Reporter.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

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MTFB Oscar Update: Predicting Oscar Winners: Screenplays and More / The Emilia Perez Saga / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PREDICTING OSCAR WINNERS: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

MTFB continues today with trying to predict the Oscar winners for 2025.    Five more categories are added today.  As always TFF films are in Bold.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave

2) A Complete Unknown

3) Nickel Boys

4) Emilia Perez

5) Sing Sing

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora

2) The Brutalist

3) The Substance

4) A Real Pain

5) September 5

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) I'm Still Here

2) The Seed of the Sacred fig

3) Emilia Perez

4) Flow

5) The Girl with the Needle

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot

2) Flow

3) Inside Out 2

4) Wallace and Gromet: Vengeance Most Fowl

5) Memoir of a Snail

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) No Other Land

2) Sugarcane

3) Black Box Diaries

4) Porcelain War

5) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

THE EMILIA PEREZ SAGA

Hoo boy...Emilia Perez  13 Oscar nominations...most of any film this year.  Tied for second most all time.  And after this last week...likely not going to win a single one.  Initially signaling trouble was big time negative reactions from a number of communities reflected in the film as well as criticism that the film, set in Mexico, had almost no input or participation from Mexican natives/

Then came the reveal of a number of posts from the movie's lead Karla Sofia Gascon...that were incendiary to say the least.

Last Thursday I had it nominally winning Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress.  Now, based on nominations and such, had this past week not happened, it could have also won: International Feature and Original Song as well.  Now, I suspect, the film is fried.  13 nominations and no wins anywhere.

Emilia Perez was always going to be a hard sell for Best Picture but in an year that has been fractured in terms of  Oscar predicting, the film with 13 nominations seemed like the best bet.  Now???It's the Wild West in Oscarland.

In the Best Picture race, Emilia Perez's woes benefit Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave and A Complete Unknown.  I won't predict the Best Picture again officially until Feb. 13th.  That said, I feel that Conclave and  A Complete Unknown have the best chance to gain from what's been going on.

In Emilia's other three categories that it could have won...

Best Supporting Actress: If there is one category that might survive the blowback, this is it.  Zoe Saldana has been so far out front for so long maybe she escapes with the trophy.  Otherwise, congrats Ariana Grande.

Best International Film: Congrats to  I'm Still Here.  We already had figured out that The Academy likes this film a lot with it also being nominated for Best Picture and Best Actress (where Fernanda Torres could actually win).

Best Song:  Does Diane Warren actually win on her 16th nomination?  Maybe so.  Assuming both El Mal and Mi Camino are sunk you're left with her song from The Six Triple Eight, Elton John's tune and the song from Sing Sing.

Ultimately, as this space is about Telluride films, this mess likely decreases TFF film's overall success on Oscar night.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys from Pop Culture Confidential.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB Oscar Update: First Winners Predictions: Picture, Directing and Acting / International Cinephile Society and TFF / Interviews and Profiles: Eisenberg and Ross

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: FIRST WINNERS PREDICTIONS: PICTURE, DIRECTING AND ACTING

We're four weeks and a couple of days away from Oscar Night.  Today MTFB is moving into the business of predicting who will actually win The Academy Award on March 2nd.  We start with six "above-the-line" categories: Picture, Direction, and all four Acting categories.  As always, TFF films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Emilia Perez

2) The Brutalist

3) Conclave

4) Anora

5) A Complete Unknown

6) Wicked

7) The Substance

8) Nickel Boys

9) Dune: Part Two

10) I'm Still Here

 BEST DIRECTION

1) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist

2) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez

3) Sean Baker/Anora

4) James Mangold/A CompleteUnknown

5) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance

BEST ACTRESS

1) Demi Moore/The Substance

2) Mikey Madison/Anora

3) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here

4) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez

5) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown

2) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist

3) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave

4) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing

5) Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez

2) Ariana Grande/Wicked

3) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave

4) Monca Barbaro/A Complete Unknown

5) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain 

2) Edward Norton/A Complete Unknown

3) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist

4) Yura Borisov/Anora

5) Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice

 

So, if I'm 100% accurate, TFF films win Oscars for Best Picture, Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor.

On Monday I'll have first predictions for the Screenplays as well as International, Animated and Documentary Features.

INTERNATIONAL CINEPHILE SOCIETY AND TFF

The International Cinephile Society (ICS) announced its nominees for film excellence for 2024 on Sunday.  TFF films earned 33 nominations with Payal Kapadia's All We Imagine as Light leading the pack with nine.  Eight TFF #51 films were named as well as one TFF #50 film.  Here's the lowdown: 

All We Imagine as Light (9): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Kusruti), Supporting Actress (Kadam), Supporting Actress (Prabha), Ensemble, Original Screenplay, Cinematography and Editing.

Nickel Boys (7): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress (Ellis-Taylor), Supporting Actor (Wilson), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Score.

Anora (5): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Borisov), Breakthrough Performer (Madison), Ensemble and Original Screenplay.

Misericordia (4): Best Picture, Direction, Ensemble and Original Screenplay.

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (2): Best Picture and Original Screenplay.

Conclave (2): Best Ensemble and Adapted Screenplay.

No Other Land (2): Best Documentary and Debut Film.

Memoir of a Snail (1): Best Animated Film.

Janet Planet (From TFF #50-1): Best Debut Film.

The full set of nominees is linked here.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain from The Hollywood Reporter's Awards Chatter.

RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys from Paste Magazine.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com