Monday, January 30, 2017

Producers Salute La La Land / Editors Endorse La La Land and Arrival / Hidden Figures Wins SAG Ensemble / Oscar Related

Welcome to Monday as January is on the brink of limping to a conclusion...

Mary Tyler Moore and John Hurt.  Two very different actors and great in different ways but still great nonetheless.  For fun, imagine a two headed coin with MTM's Mary Richards on one side and John Hurt's Winston Smith from 1984 on the other.  Quite a heads and tails, eh?


PRODUCERS SALUTE LA LA LAND



The Producers Guild of America awarded La La Land its top prize for a feature film on Saturday night.  The PGA Award is considered a good barometer of the Best Picture race as it matches up slight better than 2/3 of the time.  The PGA also uses the same preferential balloting process as The Academy which adds another layer of insight.  Other TFF #43 films that were among The PGA nominees: Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight and Arrival.

Here is substantial coverage of the PGA awards presentation including some analysis concerning the Oscar implications of La La Land's win:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Dave McNary/Variety

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Gregory Ellwood/The Playlist



EDITORS ENDORSE LA LA LAND AND ARRIVAL



The American Cinema of Editors handed their highest honors for film editing to Damien Chazelle's La La Land as a comedy edited by Tom Cross while Denis Villeneuve's Arrival was named the best edited drama edited by Joe Walker.

OJ: Made in America was named best edited documentary and Zootopia was named the best edited animated feature.

Reportage is here:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Bill Desowitz/Indiewire



HIDDEN FIGURES WINS SCREEN ACTORS ENSEMBLE


A couple of late show surprises will serve to keep two Oscar races interesting.  Denzel Washington won the SAG Award for Best Actor last night for his role in Fences and Hidden Figures was the surprise winner in the Best Ensemble category.  

Washington's win upset Casey Affleck who has been considered the favorite through a good deal of this Oscar season for his performance in Manchester by the Sea.

The Hidden Figures win wasn't a total shocker but both Moonlight and Fences had been considered the more likely winner in that category.

The rest of the film acting categories went as expected with TFF #43 attendees winning in two categories-Best Actress and Supporting Actor.  The list:

Supporting Actress: Viola Davis/Fences
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight
Lead Actress: Emma Stone/La La Land
Lead Actor: Denzel Washington/Fences
Best Ensemble: Hidden Figures
The Best Stunt Ensemble for Film: Hacksaw Ridge

Coverage and analysis of last night's Scree Actors Guild Awards:

from Pete Hammond of Deadline.com

From Anne Thompson at Indiewire



OSCAR RELATED




The trailer for the 89th Academy awards is out and our friend Alex Billington's FirstShowing.net has it.  Check the trailer and Alex's story here.

Meanwhile, Variety-In Contention's Kristopher Tapley analyzes the Oscar race now that we know the nominees and assesses whether Damien Chazelle's La La Land has a shot at the all time record for wins after tying the all time record for nominations.  Take a look at his analysis here.

Entertainment Weekly's Devan Coggan takes a deep dive in the numbers of Oscar #89 here.

Key dates remaining:

Feb. 4th- Directors Guild Award
Feb. 12th- BAFTA Awards
Feb. 13th- Oscar final voting begins
Feb. 21st- Oscar voting concludes
Feb. 26th- Oscars Awards ceremony



That will do it for this Monday.  I'll have another post up on Thursday, so come on back for that.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

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Thursday, January 26, 2017

Telluride Sets a Record: Oscar Nominations with a Bit of Commentary / Frantz Leads in France / Now What?

Good Thursday to you...

TELLURIDE SETS A RECORD: OSCAR NOMINATIONS WITH A BIT OF COMMENTARY

Telluride #43 film nominations are Bold.




BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

BEST DIRECTION
Damien Chazelle/La La Land
Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins/Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve/Arrival

BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert/Elle
Ruth Negga/Loving
Natalie Portman/Jackie
Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins
Emma Stone/La La Land

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling/La La Land
Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington/Fences

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis/Fences
Naomie Harris/Moonlight
Nicole Kidman/Lion
Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali/Moonlight
Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel/Lion
Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals



ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea

FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
The Salesman

ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

DOCUMENTARY
13th
Fire at Sea
I am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
OJ: Made in America

ORIGINAL SCORE
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers



ORIGINAL SONG
Audition/La La Land
Can’t Stop the Feeling/Trolls
City of Stars/La La Land
How Far I’ll Go/Moana
The Empty Chair/James Foley Story

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts
Hail, Caesar
La La Land
Passengers


COSTUMES
Allied
Fantastic Beasts
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

MAKEUP/HAIR
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

SOUND MIXING
13 Hours
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One

VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One


LIVE ACTION SHORT
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Ennemis Interiuers
Le Femme et le TVG



DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The White Helmets
Joe's Violin
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Watani: My Homeland

ANIMATED SHORT
Piper
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear and Cider Cigarettes
Pearl


Comment:

La La Land leads all films with 14  nominations
Arrival had 8
Moonlight had 8
Manchester by the Sea had 6

The total of "Telluride" nominations was 42 which makes this the most Oscar-y year for Telluride since I've been keeping track and probably since the beginning of the fest.

Oh, and it almost certainly means that on Oscar night that Best Picture will have come through Telluride once again continuing a trend that has been true every year, except for 2009. since Slumdog Millionaire in 2008.

08-Slumdog
09- The Hurt Locker
10- The King's Speech
11- The Artist
12- Argo
13- 12 Years a Slave
14- Birdman
15- Spotlight



Will/Can La La Land surpass Slumdog's haul of 8 Oscars?  It's possible.  I wrote last week that, should it hit the 14 nomination plateau (tying the all time Oscar record along with Titanic and All About Eve) that, at least at that moment, The FAC was pointing toward nine wins for the film.

Early favorites for Oscar include: Actress: Stone, Actor: Affleck, Supporting Actress: Davis, Supporting Actor: Ali

Other favorites by film:

La La Land: Picture, Direction, Film Editing, Cinematography, Score, Song, Production Design and Sound Mixing (Total -9)

Moonlight: Adapted Screenplay (Total-2)

Manchester by the Sea-Original Screenplay (2)

Toni Erdmann: Foreign Language

The White Helmets: Short Doc


For non-Telluride films:

Zootopia: Animated Feature

OJ: Made in America: Documentary

Jackie: Costumes

Florence Foster Jenkins: Makeup/Hair

Hacksaw Ridge: Sound Editing

The Jungle Book: Visual Effects

Silent Nights: Live Action Short

Piper: Animated Short



Other nominations for TFF #43 films came individually for Sully, Toni Erdmann, Fire at Sea and shorts: The White Helmets, Extremis and 4.1 Miles.

The FAC went 100 of 122 for an 82% rate of correct predictions.  It was perfect in Best Picture (9/9), Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Animated Feature and Costumes. In categories where The FAC missed one or more nominees the sixth film listed made the grade in nine categories: Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Foreign Language Film, Sound Editing, Visual Effects, Live Action Short, Animated Short, Makeup/Hair (actually that's the #4 spot) and Production Design.

The biggest surprises to me were the Amy Adams miss in Best Actress and also the miss by Inner Workings in Animated Short.  I was also surprised that Passengers popped up in Original Score and Production Design.






FRANTZ LEADS IN FRANCE




The French version of The Oscar...The Cesar nominations were announced this week and TFF #43 film Frantz led the way with 11 nominations including Best Picture.  Frantz was tied for the most nominations by Elle.  Among Elle's 11 nominations was a Best Actress nod for past Telluride tribute recipient Isabelle Huppert.  Huppert was featured at last September's fest with with a screening of Things to Come.

Kenneth Lonergan's 6 time Oscar nominated Manchester by the Sea was nominated for Best Foreign Film.  Both La La Land and Moonlight weren't eligible for that category as they didn't or won't open in France until after the first of the year.  Other TFF # films nominated for Foreign Language Film were Graduation and Toni Erdmann.  Fire at Sea was nominated for Best Documentary.

Complete Cesar coverage is here from Awards Watch.


NOW WHAT?




Well...the Oscar nominations are in and as you can see above, it was a very successful year for Telluride in that context.  Since the fest closed on Labor Day, thus space has been largely focused on the release of the films that played the fest and the Oscar prospects for them.  Now we are on to the Oscar #89 end game over the next month the culminates with the ceremony itself on Feb. 26th.  As I have done in the past, The FAC will continue to handicap the field right up until then.  

But it's also time to begin looking forward.  

The Sundance fest has moved past its half way mark and the presence at TFF this last year of Manchester by the Sea and The Eagle Huntress, which both played at Sundance last year, makes me wonder if that situation, which admittedly has been very rare in the past, might be a little less rare going forward.  This would mean that we might have to pay a little more attention to the films that make waves in Utah.

When the Oscars conclude, there will be a slew of Oscar #90 speculative pieces.  We'll need to examine those.  The Berlin Fest looms next month.  That is often a source of a few films that make their way to T-ride and Cannes speculation will begin to ramp up ahead of its May date.  We'll need to pay attention to the critical response and awards as a way of sniffing out potential Telluride choices.

Once Cannes is completed, we get into serious Telluride speculation and prediction and look for clues, rumors and signs from the media as well as what we can discern from what's known or suspected about Toronto, Venice and New York's Fests.

That's where we'll be going right up to Labor Day weekend.  Join the ride!


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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Tuesday, January 24, 2017

SPECIAL: THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE: OSCAR NOMINATIONS!!!

Here are the nominations from The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced today:

BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

BEST DIRECTION
Damien Chazelle/La La Land
Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins/Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve/Arrival

BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert/Elle
Ruth Negga/Loving
Natalie Portman/Jackie
Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins
Emma Stone/La La Land

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling/La La Land
Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington/Fences

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis/Fences
Naomie Harris/Moonlight
Nicole Kidman/Lion
Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali/Moonlight
Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water
Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures
Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel/Lion
Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Moonlight

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea

FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
The Salesman

ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

DOCUMENTARY
13th
Fire at Sea
I am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
OJ: Made in America

ORIGINAL SCORE
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

ORIGINAL SONG
Audition/La La Land
Can’t Stop the Feeling/Trolls
City of Stars/La La Land
How Far I’ll Go/Moana
The Empty Chair/James Foley Story

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts
Hail, Caesar
La La Land
Passengers


COSTUMES
Allied
Fantastic Beasts
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

MAKEUP/HAIR
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

SOUND MIXING
13 Hours
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One

VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One


LIVE ACTION SHORT
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Ennemis Interiuers
Le Femme et le TVG

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The White Helmets
Joe's Violin
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Watani: My Homeland

ANIMATED SHORT
Piper
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear and Cider Cigarettes
Pearl


Comment:

La La Land leads all films with 14  nominations.
Arrival had 8
Moonlight had 8
Manchester by the Sea had 6








Monday, January 23, 2017

The Final Film Awards Clearinghouse (FAC) for Oscar #89 / Final Predictions from Oscar Experts

Hello Monday...Tomorrow brings the nominations for the 89th Academy Awards.  The FAC Final is here for you.

Below are the final computations for the Film Awards Clearinghouse for 2016.  Some reminders...

I think this my ninth year to attempt some level of this and I have found that The FAC metric will be somewhere between 75-80% accurate today.  In categories that The FAC misses going 5 for 5, about 75% of the time, the nominee that "steals" the spot is the #6 ranked film/performer.  The most troubling categories seem to always be the Short form films as well as Original Score and Song.


THE FINAL FAC FOR OSCAR #89

As always, I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.



BEST PICTURE



1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (2)
3) Manchester by the Sea (3)
4) Arrival (4)
5) Lion (6)
6) Hell or High Water (5)
7) Hidden Figures (8)
8) Hacksaw Ridge (7)

9) Fences (9)
10) Nocturnal Animals (10)
11) Silence (11)
12) Loving (12)

BEST DIRECTION



1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)
2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (2)
3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester (3)
4) Denis Villeneuve/Arrival (4)
5) Garth Davis/Lion (5)

6) Martin Scorsese/Silence (8)
7) David Mackenzie/Hell or High Water (7)
8) Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge (6)
9) Denzel Washington/Fences (9)
10) Tom Ford/Nocturnal Animals (NR)


BEST ACTRESS



1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Amy Adams/Arrival (3)
4) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (5)
5) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (4)

6) Annette Bening/20th Century Women (6)
7) Ruth Negga/Loving (7)
8) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (8)
9) Emily Blunt/The Girl on the Train (10)
10) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (9)

BEST ACTOR



1) Casey Affleck/Manchester (1)
2) Denzel Washington/Fences (2)
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (3)
4) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (4)
5) Viggo Mortensen/Capt. Fantastic (5)

6) Joel Edgerton/Loving (7)
7) Tom Hanks/Sully (6)
8) Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals (NR)
9) Sunny Pawar/Lion (NR)
10) Andrew Garfield/Silence (8)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



1) Viola Davis/Fences (1)
2) Michelle Williams/Manchester (2)
3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (3)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (4)
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (5)

6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (6)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (7)
8) Molly Shannon/Other People (8)
9) Lily Gladstone/Certain Women (10)
10) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls (10)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR



1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2)
3) Dev Patel/Lion (3)
4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester (5)

6) Aaron Taylor-Johnson/Nocturnal Animals (9)
7) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (7)
8) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (6)
9) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (8)
10) Issey Ogata/Silence (10)


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY



1) Moonlight (1)
2) Arrival (2)
3) Hidden Figures (5)
4) Lion (4)
5) Fences (3)

6) Nocturnal Animals (6)
7) Loving (7)
8) Hacksaw Ridge (8)
9) Silence (9)
10) Deadpool (10)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY



1) Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) La La Land (2)
3) Hell or High Water (3)
4) The Lobster (4)
5) Captain Fantastic (6)

6) 20th Century Women (5)
7) Zootopia (8)
8) Jackie (7)
9) I, Daniel Blake (9)
10) Toni Erdmann (NR)



FILM EDITING



1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (2)
3) Arrival (3)
4) Hacksaw Ridge (5)
5) Manchester by the Sea (6)

6) Hell or High Water (4)
7) Lion (NR)
8) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
9) Silence (7)
10) Rogue One (10)



CINEMATOGRAPHY



1) La La Land (1)
2) Arrival (3)
3) Moonlight (4)
4) Silence (2)
5) Lion (6)

6) Nocturnal Animals (5)
7) Hell or High Water (NR)
8) Jackie (7)
9) Live by Night (8)
10) Hail, Caesar (9)



BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM



1) Toni Erdmann (1)
2) Land of Mine (3)
3) The Salesman (2)
4) A Man Called Ove (4)
5) My Life as a Zucchini (5)

6) Tanna (6)
7) Paradise (7)
8) It's Only the End of the World (8)
9) The King's Choice (9)


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Zootopia (1)
2) Kubo and the Two Strings (2)
3) Moana (3)
4) The Red Turtle (4)
5) My Life as a Zucchini (5)

6) Finding Dory (6)
7) Miss Hoksauki (7)
8) Sing (9)
9) The Little Prince (8)
10) Your Name (10)

BEST DOCUMENTARY



1) OJ: Made in America (1)
2) 13th (2)
3) I Am Not Your Negro (3)
4) Cameraperson (5)
5) Life Animated (8)

6) Weiner (4)
7) Fire at Sea (6)
8) Gleason (7)
9) The Ivory Game (9)
10) Tower (NR)



ORIGINAL SCORE



1) La La Land (1)
2) Moonlight (3)
3) Lion (2)
4) The BFG (4)
5) Jackie (5)

6) Rogue One (6)
7) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
8) Hacksaw Ridge (NR)
9) Kubo and the Two Strings (NR)
10) Florence Foster Jenkins (8)

ORIGINAL SONG



1) City of Stars/La La Land (1)
2) How Far I'll Go/Moana (3)
3) Audition/ La La Land (2)
4) Can't Stop the Feeling/Trolls (4)
5) Drive It Like You Stole It/Sing Street (5)

6) Runnin'/Hidden Figures (7)
7) Faith/Sing (NR)
8) Rules Don't Apply/Rules Don't Apply (NR)
9) Letter to the Free/13th (10)
10) I'm Still Here/Miss Sharon Jones (9)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN



1) La La Land (1)
2) Fantastic Beasts And Where to Find Them (4)
3) Arrival (5)
4) Jackie (2)
5) Silence (3)

6) Hail, Caesar (NR)
7) Nocturnal Animals (NR)
8) The Handmaiden (NR)
9) Hacksaw Ridge (10)
10) Rogue One (8)


BEST COSTUMES



1) Jackie (1)
2) Florence Foster Jenkins (3)
3) La La Land (2)
4) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (4)
5) Allied (7)

6) The Dressmaker (NR)
7) Silence (5)
8) Hidden Figures (NR)
9) Hail, Caesar (NR)
10) Love and Friendship (6)

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
2) Deadpool (1)
3) Star Trek Beyond (2)

4) A Man Called Ove (3)
5) Hail, Caesar (7)
6) The Dressmaker (5)
7) Suicide Squad (6)

BEST SOUND EDITING



1) Hacksaw Ridge (1)
2) Arrival (3)
3) Rogue One (2)
4) Deepwater Horizon (6)
5) La La Land (5)

6) Sully (4)
7) The Jungle Book (7)
8) Deadpool (NR)
9) Doctor Strange (NR)
10) Patriot's Day (8)


BEST SOUND MIXING



1) La La Land (1)
2) Hacksaw Ridge (2)
3) Rogue One (3)
4) Arrival (4)
5) Sully (6)

6) Deepwater Horizon (7)
7) Doctor Strange (NR)
8) The Jungle Book (5)
9) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (NR)
10) Patriot's Day (8)


VISUAL EFFECTS



1) The Jungle Book (1)
2) Rogue One (2)
3) Doctor Strange (3)
4) Arrival (4)
5) Fantastic Beats and Where to Find Them (5)

6) Kubo and the Two Strings (9)
7) Deepwater Horizon (10)
8) Passengers (6)
9) Captain America: Civil War (7)
10) The BFG (8)


LIVE ACTION SHORT



1) Silent Nights (1)
2) Nocturne in Black (2)
3) Sing (5)
4) Bon Voyage (4)
5) Graffiti (3)

6) Timecode (6)
7) The Way of Tea (10)
8) Ennemis Interiuers (7)
9) The Rifle... (8)
10) Le Femme et le TVG (9)

DOCUMENTARY SHORT



1) The White Helmets (2)
2) Joe's Violin (1)
3) Extremis (3)
4) The Mute's House (4)
5) 4.1 Miles (5)

6) Close Ties (6)
7) Watani: My Homeland (7)
8) Frame 394 (8)
9) Brillo Pad (3 Cents Off) (10)
10) The Other Side of Home (9)

ANIMATED SHORT



1) Inner Workings (1)
2) Piper (2)
3) The Head Vanishes (3)
4) Blind Vaysha (4)
5) Borrowed Time (7)

6) Pear and Cider Cigarettes (6)
7) Pearl (5)
8) Happy End (9)
9) Once Upon a Line (8)
10) Under Your Fingers (10)


If The FAC is 100% accurate (and remember, it won't be):

La La Land will lead all films and tie the record for most nominations with 14: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Score, Song-twice, Production Design, Costumes, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.  It seems most vulnerable in the Sound Editing category.

Arrival would have the second largest number of nominations with 10: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.  Arrival is very vulnerable in a number of categories so 10 nominations may not be realistic.

Moonlight would have the third most nominations with eight: Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography and Score.

Manchester would tie (with Lion) for the fourth most nominations with seven: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing,

Other TFF nominations would come for Toni Erdmann for Best Foreign Language Film and Sully for Sound Mixing.  Toni Erdmann could also have a shot at an Original Screenplay nomination and Sully could compete for nominations for Best Actor and Sound Editing.

Five short subject films that played T-ride could be nominated.  For Doc short: The White Helmets, Extremis and 4.1 Miles.  For Animated Short: Inner Workings and for Live Action Short: Nocturne in Black.

In total TFF #43 films (again, only of The FAC hits 100%) would earn 46 nominations which would be the most since I started keeping track and (without actually doing the research into years prior to 2008) the most in the festival's history.  Additionally, the fest films could be in play for an additional three nominations.

Realistically, my guess is the fest ends up at 39 total nominations.

Other non-Telluride films with multiple nominations:

Lion-7
Hacksaw Ridge-5
Jackie-4
Florence Foster Jenkins-4
Fences-3
Hell or High Water-3
Hidden Figures-3
Fantastic Beasts-3
Rogue One-3
Captain Fantastic-2
Silence-2
My Life as a Zucchini-2
Moana-2

Now, to wait for tomorrow morning...


FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM...



Here are links to the Final Oscar nomination predictions from Oscar prognosticating experts:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch (podcast)

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience

Steve Pond/The Wrap

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit (podcast)

Glenn Whipp/The Los Angeles Times

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Nicole Sperling/Entertainment Weekly


I'll update the experts predictions throughout the day today to add other experts of if any of these that are posted, change their minds,

ALSO!!!  I am planning to post nominees HERE TOMORROW after the announcement with, perhaps, a bit of commentary.  I'll do some fuller analysis in Thursday's regularly scheduled post.


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