Thursday, January 12, 2017

The FAC Updates the Oscar Acting Races / Producers Guild Nominees Feature TFF #43 / BAFTA Loves La La Land and Arrival

Good Thursday...if the country is still here...


The FAC last updated the four acting race 3-4 weeks ago and some of the ground has shifted in the lead categories.  The supporting categories have remained largely the same.  The largest influences in the last month have been the Golden Globes and the BAFTA announcement of nominees (see below). Those two events within the past week have moved some people around.  Here's the latest, up-to-date look at the acting races with a mere dozen days left until Oscar announces.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.


1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Amy Adams/Arrival (6)
4) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (5)
5) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (7)

6) Anette Bening/20th Century Women (3)
7) Ruth Negga/Loving (4)
8) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (8)
9) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (9)
10) Emily Blunt/The Girl on the Train (NR)

Hot: Adams, Streep, Blunt
Not: Bening, Negga and Marion Cotillard who dropped off the list.
On the Cusp: Kate Beckinsale/Love and Friendship
Comment: Adams gets a boost from BAFTA.  Streep gets a boost from her GG Lifetime acceptance speech.  The race at the top between Stone and Portman is incredibly close.


1) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) Denzel Washington/Fences (2)
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (4)
4) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (6)
5) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (8)

6) Tom Hanks/Sully (3)
7) Joel Edgerton/Loving (5)
8) Andrew Garfield/Silence (9)
9) Warren Beatty/Rules Don't Apply (7)
10) Michael Keaton/The Founder (NR)

Hot: Garfield (Hacksaw), Mortensen and Keaton
Not: Hanks, Edgerton and Adam Driver who dropped from the list.
On the Cusp: Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals
Comment: Mortensen continues to march up the list with his SAG, BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations showing that he has serious momentum.  Andrew Garfield also continues to rise.  The race still seems to be between Affleck and Washington for the win.


1) Viola Davis/Fences (1)
2) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (2)
3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (3)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (4)
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (5)

6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (6)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (7)
8) Molly Shannon/Other People (8)
9) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (9)
10) (TIE) Felicity Jones (10) and Lily Gladstone/Certain Women (NR)

On the Cusp: Haley Squires/I, Daniel Blake
Comment: An incredibly stable category that will be won by Viola Davis.


1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2)
3) Dev Patel/Lion (3)
4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (5)

6) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (6)
7) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (8)
8) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (7)
9) Aaron Taylor-Johnson/Nocturnal Animals (NR)
10) Issey Ogata/Silence (9)

Hot: Taylor-Johnson has exploded into the conversation just this week with his stunning Golden Globe win and his BAFTA nomination.
Not: Aaron Eckhart
On the Cusp: Stephen Henderson/Fences


One of the most well regarded precursors of probable Oscar Best Picture nominees is the Producers Guild of America (PGA).  The PGA named their list of ten feature film nominees on Tuesday and it included four films that played at Telluride last September.

Those named were: Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and La La Land.  The nomination for Arrival is being perceived as a strong sign that it will likely be among the films nominated for Best Picture when the Oscar nominations are announced on Jan. 24.  La La Land, Manchester and Moonlight have been considered locks for some time and the PGA accolade just added to that view.

Other films named by the PGA were: Deadpool, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures and Lion.

Deadpool was a real surprise to the otherwise expected list of films.  Left off: Sully, Silence and Loving.

The PGA also named The Eagle Huntress, which also played TFF #43 among the five Best Documentaries.

Coverage and analysis of the PGA nominations is here from:


Awards Daily

The Playlist

The Film Experience


Damien Chazelle's La La Land led all films in the number of nominations it received from the British Academy of Film and Television Artists on Tuesday with 11 nods.  Denis Villenueve's Arrival and Tom Ford's Nocturnal Animals followed in second place with nine nominations apiece.

Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea had six nominations while Barry Jenkins Moonlight was only mentioned four times.

Here are the respective nominations for each:

La La Land: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actor, Actress, Original Music, Cinematography, Editing. Production Design, Costume, Sound

Arrival: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Actress, Original Music, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Visual Effects

Manchester: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing

Moonlight: Picture, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress

Other notes: Toni Erdmann was nominated for Best Film not in the English Language, as was TFF #42 film Son of Saul.  The Eagle Huntress was nominated for Best Documentary and Manchester by the Sea's Lucas Hedges was nominated for the Rising Star award.

Complete BAFTA nominations and analysis is here from:


The Playlist

The Hollywood Reporter


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