May I Have the Envelope Please...No, No, the Correct Envelope / Oscars Love Telluride's 2016 Lineup

Welcome to Monday


OSCARS LOVE TELLURIDE'S 2016 LINEUP


It was an insane night full of surprises large and small with the largest being the announcing of one Best Picture winner only to have that reversed in favor of a surprise upset winner.  Moonlight won Best Picture but only found out after La La Land had been announced and a number of thank you speeches had come from La La Land producers.

Here is that moment from ABC News and YouTube:

Here are your winners from the 89th Academy Awards:

Picture: Moonlight

Director: Damien Chazelle/La La Land
Actress: Emma Stone/La La Land

Actor: Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis/Fences
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight
Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight
Film Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Cinematography: La La Land

Original Score: La La Land
Original Song: City of Stars/La La Land
Animated Feature: Zootopia
Documentary: OJ: Made in America
Foreign Language Film: The Salesman
Production Design: La La Land
Costumes: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Makeup/Hair: Suicide Squad
Sound Mixing: Hacksaw Ridge

Sound Editing: Arrival
Visual Effects: The Jungle Book

Animated Short: Piper Pearl
Live Action Short: Sing
Documentary Short: The White Helmets



Moonlight wins three Oscars: Best Picture, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay
La La Land wins six Oscars: Best Actress, Director, Score, Song, Cinematography and Production Design
Manchester by the Sea wins two Oscars: Best Actor and Original Screenplay

Other Telluride 2016 wins Arrival for Best Sound Editing and The White Helmets for Best Short Documentary.

Telluride's 43rd iteration hosted films with 13 Oscar wins out of 42 nominations.

For the seventh straight year (and eighth of the last nine years)  the Oscar Best Picture winner has "premiered" for the first time on the North American continent at the Telluride film festival.

The FAC had a lackluster night going 15 of 24.  In the other categories, the "upset" winner listed in Thursday's post won and in six categories the winner was off the FAC altogether on Thursday.

I'm really re-thinking how or even if The FAC is viable in its current incarnation.

Past FAC results:

2016: 15/24
2015: 20/24
2014: 22/24
2013: 18/24 (25 tie in Sound Editing)
2012: 18/24
2011: 17/24
2010: 14/24

So, there's that.

Finally another huge shout out to Barry Jenkins and the entire Moonlight crew.  In all the years I've been writing about Telluride and the Oscars there has never been a truer expression of TFF in terms of the Oscar Best Picture winner than this at a number of levels and Barry's a good guy to boot.  You can't ask for a better ending than that despite the weird way that it went down.

Congratulations Barry and Mahershala and Tarell.

Now, it's time to return to the first purpose of this space which is to begin to puzzle out the films that will make their way to the San Juans over Labor Day weekend in six months time.

More on Thursday.


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The (Probably) Final FAC Predictions for Oscar #89 / Final Oscar Calls from Experts (Updated) / Late Breaking: Toronto Down to Downsize

Good Thursday to you...


THE (PROBABLY) FINAL FAC FOR OSCAR #89

We are just days away from the Oscars -on Sunday night on ABC- and here are the (probably) final predictions from The Film Awards Clearinghouse.  Barring some weird movement or unforeseen circumstance, this will be the last post from MTFB/FAC until Monday's regularly scheduled post.  In that, I'll do some semblance of analysis based on the results of Sunday's ceremony.

Today's predictions include updated data for the eight categories that have seemed to have been the most contentious over the past few weeks since nominations were announced:  Actor, Original Screenplay,Sound Editing, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and the three Short Form categories: Live Action, Animated and Documentary.  I also did a quick update on Best Picture.

On Oscar night itself, I'll be semi-live-tweeting.  Also probably a good deal of re-tweeting.  Check out my Twitter account @Gort2.


As always, The FAC uses the published predictions of the following experts to derive its picks:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  Categories that were deemed "Toss Ups" are indicated with ***

***LIVE ACTION SHORT
Winner: Enemies Interiors
Upset: Timecode
Comment: Since last week, a big surge for  Ennemis Interieurs puts it on top, marginally over Timecode.

***DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner; Joe's Violin
Upset: The White Helmets
Comment:  Last week's two leaders switch places but the metric still makes this a squeaky tight race.

***ANIMATED SHORT
Winner: Piper
Upset: Pearl
Comment:  Piper's lead has increased substantially over the past week.  Still not a lock by any means.


SOUND MIXING:
Winner: La La Land
Upset: Hacksaw Ridge

***SOUND EDITING
Winner: Hacksaw Ridge
Upset: La La Land

VISUAL EFFECTS
Winner; The Jungle Book
Upset: Rogue One

***MAKEUP/HAIR
Winner: Star Trek Beyond
Upset: A Man Called Ove

***COSTUMES
Winner: Jackie
Upset: La La Land
Comment:  Jackie has opened up a slight, but real,  lead in this category.  La La Land could still sneak a win here, however.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: La La Land
Upset: Arrival or Fantastic Beasts

ORIGINAL SONG
Winner: City of Stars/La La Land
Upset: Could come from Moana or Trolls

ORIGINAL SCORE
Winner: La La Land
Upset: Moonlight or Lion

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Winner: The Salesman
Upset: Toni Erdmann

ANIMATED FEATURE
Winner: Zootopia
Upset: Kubo and the Two Strings

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Winner: OJ: Made in America
Upset: 13th or I Am Not Your Negro

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: La La Land
Upset: Lion

FILM EDITING
Winner: La La Land
Upset: Arrival

***ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Winner: Manchester by the Sea
Upset: La La Land
Comment: Manchester has moved into a more secure position in the last week.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Winner: Moonlight
Upset: Arrival

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight
Upset: Dev Patel/Lion

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Viola Davis/Fences
Upset: Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea

***ACTOR
Winner: Denzel Washington/Fences
Upset: Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea
Comment: Still a whisker thin margin for Washington.

ACTRESS
Winner: Emma Stone/La La Land
Upset: Isabelle Huppert/Elle

DIRECTOR

Winner: Damien Chazelle / La La Land
Upset: Barry Jenkins/Moonlight

BEST PICTURE

Winner: La La Land
Upset: Moonlight
Comment: Other possible upset players: Hidden Figures, Manchester by the Sea and Lion

Expected win totals:

La La Land 9
Moonlight 2
Fences 2
 No other film with more than a single win.

TFF #43 films with 13 wins.

A last thought.  I'm feeling a bit of  an intuition that La La Land might actually upset in both Original Screenplay and Costumes.


 FINAL OSCAR CALLS FROM THE EXPERTS (UPDATED)

Here the FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS from various experts.  I WILL BE UPDATING this section through Sunday:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis (and Friends)/Awards Circuit

Awards Daily

Film School Rejects

Awards Watch Podcast

Gold Derby

Metacritic

Movie City News Gurus of Gold

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Indiewire Critics Survey

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience

Jason Osiason/Fantastic Film Fans




LATE BREAKING: TORONTO TO DOWNSIZE

There are multiple reports that the Torotno International Film Festival is going to shrink its feature film lineup by about 20% or from approximately 300 films down to 240ish.

Here's that story from:

The Hollywood Reporter

Indiewire

The Playlist



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The FAC Updates the Oscar Acting Races / Producers Guild Nominees Feature TFF #43 / BAFTA Loves La La Land and Arrival

Good Thursday...if the country is still here...

THE FAC UPDATES THE OSCAR ACTING RACES

The FAC last updated the four acting race 3-4 weeks ago and some of the ground has shifted in the lead categories.  The supporting categories have remained largely the same.  The largest influences in the last month have been the Golden Globes and the BAFTA announcement of nominees (see below). Those two events within the past week have moved some people around.  Here's the latest, up-to-date look at the acting races with a mere dozen days left until Oscar announces.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Amy Adams/Arrival (6)
4) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (5)
5) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (7)

6) Anette Bening/20th Century Women (3)
7) Ruth Negga/Loving (4)
8) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (8)
9) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (9)
10) Emily Blunt/The Girl on the Train (NR)

Hot: Adams, Streep, Blunt
Not: Bening, Negga and Marion Cotillard who dropped off the list.
On the Cusp: Kate Beckinsale/Love and Friendship
Comment: Adams gets a boost from BAFTA.  Streep gets a boost from her GG Lifetime acceptance speech.  The race at the top between Stone and Portman is incredibly close.

BEST ACTOR

1) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) Denzel Washington/Fences (2)
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (4)
4) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (6)
5) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (8)

6) Tom Hanks/Sully (3)
7) Joel Edgerton/Loving (5)
8) Andrew Garfield/Silence (9)
9) Warren Beatty/Rules Don't Apply (7)
10) Michael Keaton/The Founder (NR)

Hot: Garfield (Hacksaw), Mortensen and Keaton
Not: Hanks, Edgerton and Adam Driver who dropped from the list.
On the Cusp: Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals
Comment: Mortensen continues to march up the list with his SAG, BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations showing that he has serious momentum.  Andrew Garfield also continues to rise.  The race still seems to be between Affleck and Washington for the win.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Fences (1)
2) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (2)
3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (3)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (4)
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (5)

6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (6)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (7)
8) Molly Shannon/Other People (8)
9) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (9)
10) (TIE) Felicity Jones (10) and Lily Gladstone/Certain Women (NR)

On the Cusp: Haley Squires/I, Daniel Blake
Comment: An incredibly stable category that will be won by Viola Davis.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2)
3) Dev Patel/Lion (3)
4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (5)

6) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (6)
7) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (8)
8) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (7)
9) Aaron Taylor-Johnson/Nocturnal Animals (NR)
10) Issey Ogata/Silence (9)

Hot: Taylor-Johnson has exploded into the conversation just this week with his stunning Golden Globe win and his BAFTA nomination.
Not: Aaron Eckhart
On the Cusp: Stephen Henderson/Fences



PRODUCERS GUILD NOMINEES FEATURE TFF #43

One of the most well regarded precursors of probable Oscar Best Picture nominees is the Producers Guild of America (PGA).  The PGA named their list of ten feature film nominees on Tuesday and it included four films that played at Telluride last September.

Those named were: Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and La La Land.  The nomination for Arrival is being perceived as a strong sign that it will likely be among the films nominated for Best Picture when the Oscar nominations are announced on Jan. 24.  La La Land, Manchester and Moonlight have been considered locks for some time and the PGA accolade just added to that view.

Other films named by the PGA were: Deadpool, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures and Lion.

Deadpool was a real surprise to the otherwise expected list of films.  Left off: Sully, Silence and Loving.

The PGA also named The Eagle Huntress, which also played TFF #43 among the five Best Documentaries.

Coverage and analysis of the PGA nominations is here from:

Indiewire

Awards Daily

The Playlist

The Film Experience


BAFTA LOVES LA LAND AND ARRIVAL

Damien Chazelle's La La Land led all films in the number of nominations it received from the British Academy of Film and Television Artists on Tuesday with 11 nods.  Denis Villenueve's Arrival and Tom Ford's Nocturnal Animals followed in second place with nine nominations apiece.

Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea had six nominations while Barry Jenkins Moonlight was only mentioned four times.

Here are the respective nominations for each:

La La Land: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actor, Actress, Original Music, Cinematography, Editing. Production Design, Costume, Sound

Arrival: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Actress, Original Music, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Visual Effects

Manchester: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing

Moonlight: Picture, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress

Other notes: Toni Erdmann was nominated for Best Film not in the English Language, as was TFF #42 film Son of Saul.  The Eagle Huntress was nominated for Best Documentary and Manchester by the Sea's Lucas Hedges was nominated for the Rising Star award.

Complete BAFTA nominations and analysis is here from:

Indiewire

The Playlist

The Hollywood Reporter


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The FAC Assesses Support / Shortlists / Berlin 2017 Begins Revealing

Good Monday everyone and welcome to Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Awards Clearinghouse.  I hope everyone enjoyed and survived their weekend.

THE FAC ASSESSES SUPPORT

Supporting Acting categories that is.  The last FAC look at the Supporting races was a month ago (Nov. 17) and a lot has changed since then on the men's side.  The women's side is remarkably stable. Let's take a look at the latest assessment...

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The person's previous position follows its title in parentheses.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Fences (1)
2) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (3)
3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (2)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (4)
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (6)

6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (5)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (8)
8) Molly Shannon/Other People (10)
9) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (7)
10) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls (9)

Hot: Shannon
Not: Mirren
On the Cusp: Lily Gladstone/Certain Women
Comment:  As I wrote above, a very stable category over the past month with no additions pr deletions from the top ten and only minor movement among them.  Viola Davis is clearly the prohibitive favorite.  It increasingly seems that the only person with a chance to pull the upset is Michelle Williams who has taken a number of critic's prizes in the category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2)
3) Dev Patel/Lion (3)
4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (6)

6) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (NR)
7) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (7)
8) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (NR)
9) Issei Ogata/Silence (NR)
10) Aaron Eckhart/Bleed for This (8)

Hot: Foster, Costner and Ogata who jump into the top ten for the first time this season.
Not: Eckhart, and Stephen Henderson, Liam Neeson and Peter Saarsgard who dropped out of the top ten over the past month.
On the Cusp; Ralph Fiennes/A Bigger Splash
Comment: Ali has become a juggernaut of sorts as he has won critic's prize after critic's prize for his work in Moonlight.  He's not as prohibitive a favorite as Davis is among the women but he's getting there.

Thursday...a look at the screenplay categories and we'll measure the effect of Moonlight and Loving being moved from the Original to the Adapted category.


SHORTLISTS



The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences narrowed a number of categories this past week and those decisions had immediate ramifications for films that played at Telluride in September.

For example, the Foreign Language field was pared down to nine films:

Australia: Tanna
Canada: It's Only the End of the World
Denmark: Land of Mine
Germany: Toni Erdmann
Iran: The Salesman
Norway: The King's Choice
Russia: Paradise
Sweden: A Man Called Ove
Switzerland: My Life as a Zucchini

The field includes only one T-ride title-and possibly the ultimate favorite for the trophy-Toni Erdmann.  Left off were both Neruda and Fire at Sea which played TFF #43 and were thought to be serious players for a FLF Oscar nomination.  The final five nominees will be announced Jan. 24th.

Coverage of the shortlist announcement is here from:

Awards Daily

Gold Derby

Indiewire

Deadline

Awards Watch

Also, The Academy pared down the list of films still eligible for the Visual Effects nomination and Telluride still has a player in that race as Denis Villenueve's Arrival was named one of the ten films still under consideration.  Having a Telluride film in contention for the Visual Effects Oscar is a rare but not unheard of occurrence (Gravity was nominated and won in 2013).

Entertainment Weekly has the story which includes all of the films still alive in addition to Arrival.

Additionally, The Oscar Documentary shortlist was announced last week.  Among the 15 films making the shortlist were  a number that screened at TFF #43.  The Eagle Huntress, The Ivory Game and Fire at Sea made the list that will be whittled to five films on Jan. 24th.

The New York Times  has coverage here of the announcement.


BERLIN 2017 BEGINS REVEALING

We heard this week a few of the titles that will debut at the Berlin International Film Festival which runs Feb. 9-19, 2017.

Here's why that matters to readers of this space.  You can make a safe bet that a couple of Berlin titles make their way to Telluride in nine months.  Last year, for example, Mia Hansen-Love's Things to Come and Gianfranco's Fire at Sea both premiered at Berlin and then made the trip to the San Juans. In 2015 Taxi and 45 Years did the same thing.  So, we can cast a glance at the few announced films from this week and pick out some films that make the most sense for a Telluride play and there are a few that have some characteristics (i.e. directors that have had films play TFF in the past) that make them prime suspects:

The Party/Sally Potter (TFF 2012- Ginger and Rosa)
Spoor/Angnieska Holland (TFF 2013-Burning Bush, TFF 2011-In Darkness)
The Other Side of Hope/Aki Kaurismaki (TFF 2011-Le Havre)
A Fantastic Woman/Sebastian Lelio (TFF 2013-Gloria)

Coverage of the Berlin reveals is here from:

Variety

The Playlist

The Film Stage


That's Monday's post.  Come back for more on Thursday.


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SAG Acting Awards Nominations are 40% Telluride / Oscar Changes the Lay of the Land / Norman Makes an Appearance

Good Thursday film fans...

SAG AWARDS NOMINATIONS ARE 40% TELLURIDE

The Screen Actors Guild announced their nominees for acting excellence for 2016 yesterday morning.  Actors from TFF #43 films were named in 10 of the 25 slots.  SAG nominates the traditional Actresses and Actors in Lead and Supporting roles in addition to their Ensemble nomination and stunt cast nominations.

Here's what went down vis-a-vis Telluride among those nominations yesterday.

Manchester by the Sea-4: Ensemble, Casey Affleck/Male Lead, Michelle Williams/Female Supporting, Lucas Hedges/Male Supporting.

Moonlight-3: Ensemble, Naomie Harris/Female Supporting, Mahershala Ali/Male Supporting

La La Land-2: Emma Stone/Female Lead, Ryan Gosling/Male Lead

Arrival: Amy Adams/Female Lead.

Complete nominations:

Ensemble: Captain Fantastic, Fences, Hidden Figures, Manchester, Moonlight

Female Lead: Amy Adams/Arrival, Emily Blunt/Girl on the Train, Natalie Portman/Jackie, Emma Stone/La La Land and Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins

Male Lead: Casey Affleck/Manchester, Ryan Gosling/La La, Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge, Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic, Denzel Washington/Fences

Female Supporting: Viola Davis/Fences, Naomie Harris/Moonlight, Nicole Kidman/Lion, Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures and Michelle Williams/Manchester

Male Supporting: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight, Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water, Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins, Lucas Hedges/Manchester, Dev Patel/Lion

Thoughts:  It seems to me that Hidden Figures and Fences pick up some heat for a Best Picture nomination and that 20th Century Women and Loving are losing steam.  I think her nomination is terrific news for Amy Adams.  Meanwhile, Tom Hanks campaign for Sully looks like it's in trouble.


Category by category:

Ensemble: The inclusion of Captain Fantastic was a bit of a stunner.  La La Land's exclusion doesn't seem to me to be that problematic.  It's not an ensemble piece so I don't think even calling it a snub would be accurate but a number of the big time Oscar pros think that it IS a deal.  Their point being that its been over 20 years since a Best Picture winner emerged without a SAG ensemble nomination.

Best Actress looks like the category where the most weirdness occurred.  As of last Monday's FAC post only 2 of the 5 "probable" Best Actress Oscar nominees made the SAG list yesterday: Stone and Portman.  Adams was listed at #6 and Streep #7 last week and Emily Blunt was nowhere to be found. Not included on the SAG list but on the latest FAC are Ruth Negga/Loving (#4), Anette Bening/20th Century Women (#3) and Emily Blunt/Girl-Train who had dropped out of The FAC top ten.

Best Actor: Kind of a bit of a surprise that Mortensen is a SAG nominee.  He edges out Joel Edgerton who I had as the #5 guy in the latest FAC.

Best Supporting Actress: #6 on the FAC Octavia Spencer is in for #5 Greta Gerwig.

Best Supporting Actor: #6 Lucas Hedges is in for the FAC's #5 Liam Neeson.

The SAG is the first of the guilds to weigh in with other major guilds still to come: Producers, Directors and Writers.

I'll be interested to see if Wednesday's announcement moves the needle for some Oscarologists in the next few days.

The next big precursors isn't until the Writers Guild nominations on Jan. 4.  The editors Guild announces their nominations the day before.

Here's the complete list of nominees for film and television from SAG-AFTRA.

Additionally, here's analysis from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily.


OSCAR CHANGES THE LAY OF THE LAND

In the space of the three days since MTFB/FAC's last post, a couple of Oscar racers got some big changes as a result of determinations made concerning eligibility.

AMPAS has determined that both Moonlight and Loving, which have been thought to be competing in the Original Screenplay category will. in fact by relegated to the Adapted category.  That probably makes Moonlight the favorite for that trophy on Oscar night.

Coverage of the switch of categories is here from:

The Los Angeles Times

Indiewire

Entertainment Weekly


Meanwhile, as seems to happen every year, there were some surprise decisions about Original Scores and there eligibility including the decision that Arrival's score is not eligible for Oscar consideration nor is the score from Manchester by the Sea.

Here's reportage from Variety , Indiewire and Entertainment Weekly.


NORMAN MAKES AN APPEARANCE

I saw three films at TFF #43 that have really flying under the radar since Labor Day:  Una (still without U.S. distribution), Wakefield and Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer.

Now, the Richard Gere starrer (Norman) looks like its peeking its head out as we saw the arrival yesterday of a teaser trailer for the film.

You'll find the teaser as well as coverage of the release for the film from Sony Pictures Classics in these dispatches from The Playlist as well as this story from my friend Alex Billington at FirstShowing.net



That'll be a wrap for this second full week of December.  Next Monday's post will include an update of the Supporting Acting categories.

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The FAC Update on Best Actress and Actor / Critic's Choice Awards / New York Critics Online / Golden Globe Nominations On the Way

Here's another edition of MTFB and The Film Awards Clearinghouse for the second Monday in December...we don't believe these results have been hacked by the Russians...


THE FAC UPDATE ON BEST ACTRESS AND ACTOR

Here's the latest look at what The FAC metric says the best guesses are for Best Actress and Actor at this point in mid-December prior to last night's Critics' Choice and today's Golden Globe nominations.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The person's previous position follows its title in parentheses.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Annette Being/20th Century Women (3)
4) Ruth Negga/Loving (4)
5) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (7)

6) Amy Adams/Arrival (6)
7) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (5)

8) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (9)

9) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (8)

10) Marion Cotillard/Allied (10)

Hot: Huppert

Not: Streep

On the Cusp: Jennifer Lawrence/Passengers

Comment: the top four remain exactly the same and the top ten remain the top ten with a bit of jostling.  I'm getting a vibe that Ruth Negga (as well as Joel Edgerton) and the while Loving campaign might be waning.

BEST ACTOR

1) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (2)

2) Denzel Washington/Fences (1)

3) Tom Hanks/Sully (4)

4) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (3)

5) Joel Edgerton/Loving (5)

6) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (7)

7) Warren Beatty/Rules Don't Apply (6)

8) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (8)

9) Andrew Garfield/Silence (9)

10) Adam Driver/Paterson (NR)

Hot: Driver

Not: Matthew McConnaughey/Gold who dropped put of the top ten.

On the Cusp: Michael Keaton/The Founder

Comment: See above Re: Loving and Edgerton.  The flip flopping between Washington and Affleck is likely to play right through Oscar night.  That's your race.

At this point TFF #43 looks to have highlighted four Oscar nominated lead performances and possibly five depending on whether Amy Adams can sneak in.  I still think she has a relatively good shot.

CRITICS' CHOICE AWARDS

Last night the Broadcast Film Critics Association named its winners for film awards for 2016.  La La Land was a huge winner collecting eight trophies including: Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay (tie),  Best Young Actor/Lucas Hedges, Cinematography, Production Design, Film Editing, Song (City of Stars) and Score.

Manchester by the Sea's Casey Affleck won Best Actor, Best Original Screenplay (tie).

Moonlight won for Mahershala Ali as Best Supporting Actor and Ensemble.

Arrival won Best Adapted Screenplay and Best SciFi/Horror Film.

All told, TFF #43 films bagged 14 Critics Choice Awards.

Complete coverage is here from:

Indiewire

Entertainment Weekly

The Playlist

NEW YORK ONLINE CRITICS

The New York Critics Circle Online named their "Best of " for 2016 yesterday and the results were as follows:

Meanwhile, Moonlight dominated the New York Film Critics Online awards that were voted on yesterday with five wins.

Moonlight: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Screenplay and Cinematography
Manchester by the Sea's Casey Affleck won Best actor (again)
La La Land won Best Use of Music

Here's coverage of the NYFCO results from Awards Watch 

GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS

Here are this morning's Golden Globes nominations totals by film:

La La Land 7
Moonlight 6
Manchester By The Sea 5
Florence Foster Jenkins 4
Lion 4
Hacksaw Ridge 3
Hell or High Water 3
Nocturnal Animals 3
20th Century Women 2
Arrival 2
Deadpool 2
Elle 2
Fences 2
Hidden Figures 2
Moana 2
Loving 2
Sing 2
Captain Fantastic 1
Divines 1
The Edge of Seventeen 1
Gold 1
Jackie 1
Kubo And The Two Strings 1
The Lobster 1
Miss Sloane 1
My Life As A Zucchini 1
Neruda 1
Rules Don’t Apply 1
The Salesman 1
Sing Street 1
Toni Erdmann 1
Trolls 1
War Dogs 1
Zootopia 1

La La Land gathers nominations for Picture (Comedy/Musical), Director, Screenplay, Actor (C/M), Actress (C/M), Score and Song.

Moonlight landed nominations for Picture (Drama), Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and  Score.

Manchester by the Sea was nominated for Best Picture (Drama), Director, Actor, Supporting Actress and  Screenplay.

Arrival was nominated for Best Actress and Score.

Neruda and Toni Erdmann were nominated for Best Foreign  Langauage Film.

In all Telluride 2016 films earned 22 Glden Globe nominations.  

Complete coverage can ne found at The Golden Globes official website.

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FAC Update: The Acting Races in November / Stone, Gosling and the Musicof La La Land / Arrival Scene on the Cutting Room Floor

Welcome to Thursday.  Thanksgiving in one week...


FAC UPDATE: THE ACTING RACES IN NOVEMBER

It's been about a month since The Film Awards Clearinghouse (FAC) portion of this blog took a look at where the Oscar acting races are so I felt like it was update time.  Since those October predictions Viola Davis/Fences and Dev Patel/Lion have both moved from the lead categories into supporting and both changes have made a significant difference across these categories.  Additionally, the fall out from the reactions to Birth of a Nation and Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk have essentially removed those films and their casts from serious Oscar consideration...at least as far as the experts are concerned.

Here's the latest FAC for Best Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The film's previous position follows its title in parenthesis.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Annette Bening/20th Century Women (4)
4) Ruth Negga/Loving (5)
5) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (6)

6) Amy Adams/Arrival (7)
7) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (8)
8) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (9)
9) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (NR)
10) Marion Cotillard/Allied (NR)

Hot: Henson and Cotillard
Cold: Amy Adams for Nocturnal Animals
On the Cusp: Jennifer Lawrence/Passengers
Comment:  Viola Davis was at the #3 spot last time we did this and her move to supporting has essentially meant that everyone moved up a spot.  If I were to quibble with anything at this point, it might be that I have a feeling...for the moment...that Adams gets in and Streep doesn't.  The FAC metric between them for the five and six spots is very tight.


BEST ACTOR

1) Denzel Washington/Fences (2)
2) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (1)
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (3)
4) Tom Hanks/Sully (4)
5) Joel Edgerton/Loving (5)

6) Warren Beatty/Rules Don't Apply (NR)
7) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (NR)
8) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (9)
9) Andrew Garfield/Silence (7)
10) Matthew McConnaughey/Gold (NR)

Hot: Beatty, Garfiled (for Hacksaw) and McConnaughey.
Not: Ben Affleck (Live by Night), Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals
On the Cusp: Michael Keaton/The Founder
Comment:  Releases of Rules Don't Apply and Hacksaw Ridge massively boosted both Warren Beatty and Andrew Garfield in the Best Actor conversation.  It will be interesting of that boost takes hold over the next month or so.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Fences (NR)
2) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (1)
3) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (2)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (3)
5) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (4)

6) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (6)
7) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (9)
8) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (7)
9) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls (10)
10) Molly Shannon/Other People (NR)

Hot: Davis, of course, who became the instant favorite once the decision was made to campaign her here rather than as a lead.  Also Mirren and Shannon.
Not: Kristen Stewart for Billy Lynn who has completely disappeared from the chart.
On the Cusp: Lupita N'yong'o (Queen of Katwe)
Comment: It's Viola and then the "just an honor to be nominated" crew at least for the moment.  What was set to be a very competitive race probably isn't now.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (6)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (3)
3) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (2)
4) Dev Patel/Lion (NR)
5) Liam Neeson/Silence (1)

6) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (4)
7) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (5)
8) Aaron Eckhardt/Bleed for This (8)
9) Peter Saarsgard/Jackie (9)
10) Stephen Henderson/Fences (7)

Hot: Patel and Ali
Not: Neeson, Hedges, Henderson and Steve Martin (Billy Lynn) who drops completely off the list
On the Cusp: Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures
Comment: Dev Patel's move to Supporting has gotten a big response...though not Viola Davis-level. Liam Neeson appears to be suffering from word that his role in Silence is very small.


From the four acting categories, if The FAC is 100% accurate then TFF #43 films would earn seven nominations with another three possibilities.


STONE, GOSLING AND THE MUSIC OF LA LA LAND

Variety's Jenelle Riley sat down with La La Land stars Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling a couple of months ago in the midst of the Toronto International Film Festival for an interview that ran just this week.  The lengthy piece also focuses on the music for the film and also includes comments from writer/director Damien Chazelle.  You can find that story here.


ARRIVAL SCENE ON THE CUTTING ROOM FLOOR

Cinemablend reported this week that one of Amy Adams best scenes from the Denis Villenueve's Arrival ended up on the cutting room floor.  Sean O'Connell reports that the decision to excise the specific scene was so successfully acted that it actually was too revealing.  Check out the story here but BE AWARE that it does contain substantial SPOILERS.

That's your MTFB/FAC for Thursday.  More on Monday.


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The FAC Looks at Film Editing and Cinematography / Oscar Biz Buzz: Fences, Miss Sloane and Moonlight

Welcome to Thursday...


THE FAC LOOKS AT TWO NEW CATEGORIES: FILM EDITING AND CINEMATOGRAPHY

One of the most common refrains in Oscar season is that a Best Picture contender needs a film editing nomination to be a real player for the big prize.  Last year's winner: Spotlight, fulfilled that criteria.  A film doesn't have to win it, but it does seem to be helpful to get the Film Editing nomination.  So we're going to take our first look today at the films that the The FAC Oscar pundits think have the inside track for a nomination there as well as for Cinematography...which for the first time in three years will NOT be won by Emmanuel Lubezki (2013-Gravity, 2014-Birdman, 2015-The Revenant).

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.

Here's the first FAC for those two categories:

FILM EDITING

1) La La Land
2) Silence
3) Arrival
4) Moonlight
5) Live by Night

6) Fences
7) Jackie
8) Lion
9) Sully
10) Hacksaw Ridge

Comment:  If true when the nominations are actually announced, TFF #43 films would be three of the five nominated films in this category.


CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) La La Land
2) Silence
3) Arrival
4) Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
5) Jackie

6) Live by Night
7) Rules Don't Apply
8) Hail Caesar
9) The Jungle Book
10) Cafe Society

Comment: La La Land would add another nomination here as would Arrival.



OSCAR BIZ BUZZ

THE VIOLA DAVIS MOVE

I reported here Monday that Viola Davis will be campaigning for Best Supporting Actress for her role in Fences rather than Best Actress.  That creates a completely different dynamic for both categories. The decision almost certainly opens a spot in the Best Actress categories and also crowds out someone in the Supporting category as well as making it a much more competitive race.

Indiewire's Anne Thompson takes a look at the ramifications.

MISS SLOANE TO POP AT AFI

We've been waiting to see the complete American Film Institute's full lineup as well as if John Madden's Miss Sloane starring Jessica Chastain would play there for some time now.  We got our answer Tuesday as The AFI folks have set the film for its World Premiere on Nov. 11.

Details of the AFI announcement are here from Variety.


AWARDS CHATTER PODCAST

Scott Feinberg talks to Oscar Best Supporting Actor contender Mahershala Ali about his role in Barry Jenkins Moonlight as well as other topics in the most recent edition of The Hollywood Reporter's Awards Chatter.

You can find the article and the link to the podcast here.


That's a wrap for Thursday.

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