The FAC Updated Predictions for Supporting and Screenplays / Telluride Time Tunnel-Re-visiting TFF #13 / RT's Top 100 Films of 2017

HAPPY NEW 2018!


Welcome to Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Awards Clearinghouse (FAC).

THE FAC UPDATED PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING AND SCREENPLAYS

Taking a look today at four categories to update them as we begin the new year.  Also a mention that the Golden Globe Awards are less than a week away.  They'll be announced on Sunday, Jan. 7th.

As always, the films/performers from TFF #44 films are indicated with Bold.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The Supporting races were last predicted in this space on Dec. 4th.  In that post the Supporting Actress race looked like this :

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound

Others: Hong Chau/Downsizing, Leslie Manville/Phantom Thread, Melissa Leo/Novitiate

Four weeks later, here's where we stand:

1) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird

2) Alison Janney/I, Tonya

3) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound

4) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick

5) Hong Chau/Downsizing

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Leslie Manville/The Phantom Thread.

Comment:  Blige has really seen a surge over the past couple of weeks.  The top spot is still very tight but Metcalf seems to have the edge at the moment.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

From a month ago:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Mark Rylance/Dunkirk

Others: Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water, Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour, Ray Romano/The Big Sick


The updated predictions:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
4) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

Comment:  Nice surges for Jenkins and Harrelson.  Dafoe looks like the solid favorite to win at this point.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The screenplay categories are being updated for the first time since Nov. 9th...

Here's what was out front nearly two months back:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Last Flag Flying

Others: Wonderstruck, Stronger, Wonder Woman

And today's update:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Wonderstruck

Comment:  A very stable category for the last two months.  The fifth spot is a toss up.  The top four seem to be in good shape.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

From Nov. 9th:

1) Three Billboards
2) The Shape of Water
3) Get Out
4) Lady Bird
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post. The Big Sick, I, Tonya

And the new FAC prediction says:

1) Three Billboards

2) Get Out

3) Lady Bird

4) The Post

5) The Shape of Water

Others: The Big Sick, Phantom Thread, I Tonya

Comment: Phantom Thread supplants Darkest Hour in the conversation for the last spot.

TELLURIDE TIME TUNNEL-RE-VISITING TFF #13

MTFB continues its months long review of the history of the Telluride Film Festival. 

You may recall that I started this project back on April 13, 2017.  The goal here is to provide a place on the interwebs where someone could get a relatively complete look at what played at each Telluride Film Fest (in as far as feature films are concerned) since its inception.

As I have written on a couple of occasions, the current official Telluride Film Festival website has links to the programs for fests from 2006 to last year's program.  Prior to 2006, I am unaware of any other collection of data for TFF online.  This is an attempt to provide that.

So, we pick up where we left off with a look at the films and personalities of TFF #13.  The 13th Telluride Film Festival took place  from Aug. 29-September 1, 1986.

Tributes: Alexander Mackendrick, Jiri Menzel and Isabelle Huppert.

Also of note, a retrospective of the films of Anthony Mann labeled Mann of the West that featured the one and only Jimmy Stewart in person.

SHOWS:

The Biscuit Eater
Blue Velvet
Cactus
Closely Watched Trains
The Decline of the American Empire
Devil in the Flesh
Document: Fanny and Alexander
Eat the Peach
Eraserhead
The Gay Desperado
The Interrogation
The Lacemaker
The Ladykillers
A Lonely Woman
Los Inundados
The Man form Laramie
Mother Teresa
My Little Village
No End
The River's Edge
The Sacrifice
Sacrificed Youth
Seize the Day
Smasher
The Sweet Smell of Success
Therese
Tire Die
Too Far to Go
We Are the Living
Winchester 73
The Witch
Working Girls


Guests:

Denys Arcand
Laura Dern
Crispin Glover
Agnieszka Holland
Chuck Jones
David Lynch
Kyle MacLachlan
Anne Meara
Jerry Stiller
James Stewart
Robin Williams


I'm trying to imagine a weekend where I might have seen James Stewart, Robin Williams and David Lynch around town and also have caught screenings of Blue Velvet, The River's Edge, Winchester 73 and The Sweet Smell of Success.


RT'S TOP 100 FILMS OF 2017

Rotten Tomatoes has released its list of the top 100 films rated on their site for 2017.  The list includes a number of titles from both TFF #44 as well as TFF #43.

Those from TFF #44 making the grade are:

#91-The Other Side of Hope
#68-Human Flow
#67-Battle of the Sexes
#26-Faces Places
#20-The Shape of Water
#5-Lady Bird

Jordan Peele's Get Out is rated as the top film by RT for 2017.

TFF #43 films that made the RT Top 100 are:

#97-Maudie
#81-Frantz
#64-I Called Him Morgan
#61-The B-Side:Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography
#44-Graduation
#35-Bright Lights: Starring Carrie Fisher and Debbie Reynolds

The complete RT Top 100 list is linked here.




That's your first MTFB for 2018.  There will probably be more. Thursday.


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Telluride Re-wind: TFF #16 / The FAC: Updating the Screenplay Categories / More from Gerwig and the Lady Bird Crew

Good Thursday everyone.

TELLURIDE RE-WIND: TFF #16

My Telluride Film Festival history project continues today with a look at the 16th Fest that occurred on Sept. 1-4, 1989.

Guest Director: Errol Morris

Tributes: Dennis Potter, Peter Greenaway, Shohei Imamura

Shows:

The Big Bang
Black Rain
Blue Remembered Hills
Born to Kill
China My Sorrow
The Cook, The Thief, His Wife and Her Lover
The Entertainer
The Good, The Bad and the Ugly
Henry: Portrait of a Serial Killer
Herdsmen of the Sun
I Went to the Dance
The Icicle Thief
La Salle de Bain
Land of Liberty
My 20th Century
My Left Foot

Mystery Train
Nuovo Cinema Paradiso
Penn and Teller Get Killed
Pennies from Heaven
Roger and Me
Solovki Power
Strapless
Super Chief: The Life and Legacy of Earl Warren
Testament
There's Always Tomorrow
The Trip to Tilsit
Trop Belle Pour Toi
Twin Peaks
Water and Power
When the Clouds Roll By
The Yellow Curse

Guests:

Mark Frost
David Hare
Screamin' Jay Hawkins
Werner Herzog
Jim Jarmusch
Penn Jillette
Chuck Jones
Daniel Day Lewis
John McNaughton
Michael Moore
Michael Ontkean
Arthur Penn
Michael Rooker
Teller



THE FAC: UPDATING THE SCREENPLAY CATEGORIES


The last Adapted Screenplay predictions from Oct. 19th:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) Last Flag Flying
5) Wonderstruck

Others in contention: Stronger, The Disaster Artist, First They Killed My Father

Here's the latest FAC assessment of the category:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Last Flag Flying

Others: Wonderstruck, Stronger, Wonder Woman



The last Original Screenplay predictions:


1) Three Billboards
2) The Shape of Water
3) Darkest Hour
4) Get Out
5) Lady Bird


Other in contention: The Post, The Big Sick, I Tonya

Here are your updated Original Screenplay predictions:

1) Three Billboards
2) The Shape of Water
3) Get Out
4) Lady Bird
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post. The Big Sick, I, Tonya


MORE FROM GRETA GERWIG AND THE LADY BIRD CREW

Esther Zuckerman posted for The Rolling Stone this week about Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird which is tearing it up on the specialty circuit.

I said earlier this week in a Twitter conversation that it could be the sleeper in this year's Best Picture Oscar race:

I'm not the only one out there that is beginning to think it could happen as well. Here and there are Oscar experts who are beginning to think that it's a real possibility.

I think that it's going to benefit from a preferential ballot.  I can see it rounding up a bunch of #1 votes but also being on a lot of Academy member's ballots in a #2 or #3 spot.

At any rate, here's the story from The Rolling Stone in which Zuckerman talks to Gerwig as well as actors Saoirse Ronan and Tracy Letts.


 And that's the MTFB for this Thursday.  Have a good weekend and I'll have more on Monday.


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FAC Oscar Update: Lead Acting / Oscar Updates from Experts / Interviews with TFF #44 Guests / Correction

It's November and here is your first MTFB of the new month...


FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE OSCAR UPDATE: LEAD ACTING

Oscar season continues and so does my meager attempt to predict the eventual nominees.  Today's focus is on the lead acting races which were first predicted here on Oct. 12th.

As always, predicted nominees connected with TFF #44 are in Bold.

Let's get to it...

BEST ACTRESS

Here is what the last FAC set of predictions had for the Best Actress race:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Meryl Streep/The Post
4) Margo Robbie/I, Tonya
5) Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game

Others: Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes, Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird


And the updated predictions:


1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post
5) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird

Others: Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel

BEST ACTOR

From Oct. 12th:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Film
4) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
5) Hugh Jackman/The Greatest Showman

Others: Andrew Garfield/Breathe, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post

And today's updated predictions:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour

2) Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger

3) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name

4) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread

5) Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq.

Others: Steve Carell/Last Flag Flying, Andrew Garfield/Breathe, Tom Hanks/The Post


OSCAR UPDATES FROM THE EXPERTS

Both Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Jason Osiason of Fantastic Film Fans (and also one of The Gold Rush Gang over at Awards Watch) have updated their Oscar predictions as of Nov. 1.

The latest Feinberg Forecast can be found here.

Osaison's latest take is linked here.

Feinberg  predicts 15 categories and has the following nominations predicted for films that played at Telluride in 2017:

The Shape of Water: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography and Score.

Lady Bird: Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Cinematography and Score

Wonderstruck: Supporting Actress, Production Design, Cinematography, Score

Loving Vincent: Animated Feature

Foxtrot: Foreign Language Film

Loveless; Foreign Language Film

Downsizing: Production Design

An Inconvenient Sequel: Best Song

Osiason predicts the major eight categories including these for TFF #44 films:

The Shape of Water: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay

Lady Bird; Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour: Best Picture, Actor

MORE INTERVIEWS WITH TFF #44 GUESTS

Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird opens tomorrow.  The film, which was quite the hit at T-ride,  has continued to gain fans through the rest of the fall film festival season.  Writer-director Gerwig was recently interviewed by Harry Haun for Film Journal which posted it this week.

Here's the link to that from Film Journal.


Meanwhile, Joe Wright's Darkest Hour, the detailed account of the events that led to the rescue at Dunkirk, opens Thanksgiving weekend.  Gary Oldman plays Winston Churchill and is widely regarded as the prohibitive favorite to pick the Best Actor Oscar next March.

Oldman is featured by Interviewmagazine.com in a piece authored by Jack White.

You can read that here.


CORRECTION

In my previous post on Oct. 30th I wrote that Ai Weiwei's refugee documentary, Human Flow, was still without distribution.  An eagle-eyed reader, who shall remain anonymous, pointed out that Human Flow was picked up for distribution by Amazon back in June according to The Hollywood Reporter.

I regret the error.  The original story has been corrected to reflect this.

That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  As always, there will be more on Monday.




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The 18th Telluride Film Festival Re-visited / The Season's First FAC / Man of Integrity Director Could Be Sentenced in Iran

Welcome back to MTFB on this Thursday in October...



THE 18TH TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL RE-VISITED

The ongoing (and slowly developing) ramble through Telluride's film festival past continues today with the 18th fest which occurred from Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 1991.

The guest director was Laurie Anderson.

Tributes were for Jodie Foster, Sven Nyquist and "Nature's Filmmakers": Peter Jones, Marion Zunz and Paul Atkins.

SHOWS:

Apocalypse Now
A Captive in the Land
Danzon
Dogfight
The Double Life of Veronique
Empire of the Air
Hearts of Darkness
Hors la Vie
I Want to Fly
Latino Bar
Let Him Have It

Little Man Tate
Lucky Star
Lyrical Nitrate
The Other Eye
The Ox
Prix de Beaute
Prospero's Books
Raise the Red Lanterns

Rambling Rose
The Rapture
Ride the High Country
Scream of Stone
A Tale of the Unextinguished Moon
The Tourist
3:10 to Yuma
The Trails of Life
Wild by Law
A Woman's Tale

Guests:

John Berry
Ken Burns
Martha Coolidge
Laura Dern
Jean Doumanian
Roger Ebert
Glenn Ford
Peter Greenaway
Renny Harlin
Werner Herzog
Dennis Hopper
Elmore Leonard
Bill Plympton
Mimi Rogers
Lili Taylor


THE SEASON'S FIRST FAC




Here's your first look at MTFB's Film Awards Clearinghouse.  I'm going with a stripped down version this year.  Films that played TFF #44 are Bold.


BEST PICTURE

1) Dunkirk
2) The Shape of Water
3) Darkest Hour
4) Three Billboards
5) The Post
6) Call Me By Your Name
7) Get Out
8) The Florida Project

Others: Blade Runner 2049, Mudbound, Lady Bird

BEST DIRECTION

1) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
2) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
3) Steven Spielberg/The Post
4) Joe Wright/Darkest Hour
5) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards

Others: Sean Baker/Florida Project, Luca Guagadino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound


BEST ACTRESS

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Meryl Streep/The Post
4) Margo Robbie/I, Tonya
5) Jessica Chatain/Molly's Game

Others: Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes, Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird


BEST ACTOR

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Film
4) Tinothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
5) Hugh Jackman/The Greatest Showman

Others: Andrew Garfield/Breathe, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post



MAN OF INTEGRITY DIRECTOR COULD BE SENTENCED IN IRAN

I reported a few weeks back that Iranian director Mohammad Rasouluf had been detained in Iran after returning there from both the Telluride and Toronto Film Fests.  Rasouluf  has been screening his latest film, A Man of Integrity.

News came yesterday that the film maker could be sentenced by an Iranian court to six years in prison for"anti-regime propaganda".  That's according to Al Arabiya.  The complete article is linked here.

Rasoulof was detained on similar charges in 2010.  Al Arabiya reported that Rasoulof was detained on his return to Iran on Sept. 15 and extensively interviewed by authorities on Oct. 3.




That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  Have a great weekend and come back for more on Monday.


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May I Have the Envelope Please...No, No, the Correct Envelope / Oscars Love Telluride's 2016 Lineup

Welcome to Monday


OSCARS LOVE TELLURIDE'S 2016 LINEUP


It was an insane night full of surprises large and small with the largest being the announcing of one Best Picture winner only to have that reversed in favor of a surprise upset winner.  Moonlight won Best Picture but only found out after La La Land had been announced and a number of thank you speeches had come from La La Land producers.

Here is that moment from ABC News and YouTube:

Here are your winners from the 89th Academy Awards:

Picture: Moonlight

Director: Damien Chazelle/La La Land
Actress: Emma Stone/La La Land

Actor: Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis/Fences
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight
Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight
Film Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Cinematography: La La Land

Original Score: La La Land
Original Song: City of Stars/La La Land
Animated Feature: Zootopia
Documentary: OJ: Made in America
Foreign Language Film: The Salesman
Production Design: La La Land
Costumes: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Makeup/Hair: Suicide Squad
Sound Mixing: Hacksaw Ridge

Sound Editing: Arrival
Visual Effects: The Jungle Book

Animated Short: Piper Pearl
Live Action Short: Sing
Documentary Short: The White Helmets



Moonlight wins three Oscars: Best Picture, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay
La La Land wins six Oscars: Best Actress, Director, Score, Song, Cinematography and Production Design
Manchester by the Sea wins two Oscars: Best Actor and Original Screenplay

Other Telluride 2016 wins Arrival for Best Sound Editing and The White Helmets for Best Short Documentary.

Telluride's 43rd iteration hosted films with 13 Oscar wins out of 42 nominations.

For the seventh straight year (and eighth of the last nine years)  the Oscar Best Picture winner has "premiered" for the first time on the North American continent at the Telluride film festival.

The FAC had a lackluster night going 15 of 24.  In the other categories, the "upset" winner listed in Thursday's post won and in six categories the winner was off the FAC altogether on Thursday.

I'm really re-thinking how or even if The FAC is viable in its current incarnation.

Past FAC results:

2016: 15/24
2015: 20/24
2014: 22/24
2013: 18/24 (25 tie in Sound Editing)
2012: 18/24
2011: 17/24
2010: 14/24

So, there's that.

Finally another huge shout out to Barry Jenkins and the entire Moonlight crew.  In all the years I've been writing about Telluride and the Oscars there has never been a truer expression of TFF in terms of the Oscar Best Picture winner than this at a number of levels and Barry's a good guy to boot.  You can't ask for a better ending than that despite the weird way that it went down.

Congratulations Barry and Mahershala and Tarell.

Now, it's time to return to the first purpose of this space which is to begin to puzzle out the films that will make their way to the San Juans over Labor Day weekend in six months time.

More on Thursday.


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The (Probably) Final FAC Predictions for Oscar #89 / Final Oscar Calls from Experts (Updated) / Late Breaking: Toronto Down to Downsize

Good Thursday to you...


THE (PROBABLY) FINAL FAC FOR OSCAR #89

We are just days away from the Oscars -on Sunday night on ABC- and here are the (probably) final predictions from The Film Awards Clearinghouse.  Barring some weird movement or unforeseen circumstance, this will be the last post from MTFB/FAC until Monday's regularly scheduled post.  In that, I'll do some semblance of analysis based on the results of Sunday's ceremony.

Today's predictions include updated data for the eight categories that have seemed to have been the most contentious over the past few weeks since nominations were announced:  Actor, Original Screenplay,Sound Editing, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and the three Short Form categories: Live Action, Animated and Documentary.  I also did a quick update on Best Picture.

On Oscar night itself, I'll be semi-live-tweeting.  Also probably a good deal of re-tweeting.  Check out my Twitter account @Gort2.


As always, The FAC uses the published predictions of the following experts to derive its picks:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  Categories that were deemed "Toss Ups" are indicated with ***

***LIVE ACTION SHORT
Winner: Enemies Interiors
Upset: Timecode
Comment: Since last week, a big surge for  Ennemis Interieurs puts it on top, marginally over Timecode.

***DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner; Joe's Violin
Upset: The White Helmets
Comment:  Last week's two leaders switch places but the metric still makes this a squeaky tight race.

***ANIMATED SHORT
Winner: Piper
Upset: Pearl
Comment:  Piper's lead has increased substantially over the past week.  Still not a lock by any means.


SOUND MIXING:
Winner: La La Land
Upset: Hacksaw Ridge

***SOUND EDITING
Winner: Hacksaw Ridge
Upset: La La Land

VISUAL EFFECTS
Winner; The Jungle Book
Upset: Rogue One

***MAKEUP/HAIR
Winner: Star Trek Beyond
Upset: A Man Called Ove

***COSTUMES
Winner: Jackie
Upset: La La Land
Comment:  Jackie has opened up a slight, but real,  lead in this category.  La La Land could still sneak a win here, however.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: La La Land
Upset: Arrival or Fantastic Beasts

ORIGINAL SONG
Winner: City of Stars/La La Land
Upset: Could come from Moana or Trolls

ORIGINAL SCORE
Winner: La La Land
Upset: Moonlight or Lion

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Winner: The Salesman
Upset: Toni Erdmann

ANIMATED FEATURE
Winner: Zootopia
Upset: Kubo and the Two Strings

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Winner: OJ: Made in America
Upset: 13th or I Am Not Your Negro

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: La La Land
Upset: Lion

FILM EDITING
Winner: La La Land
Upset: Arrival

***ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Winner: Manchester by the Sea
Upset: La La Land
Comment: Manchester has moved into a more secure position in the last week.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Winner: Moonlight
Upset: Arrival

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight
Upset: Dev Patel/Lion

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Viola Davis/Fences
Upset: Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea

***ACTOR
Winner: Denzel Washington/Fences
Upset: Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea
Comment: Still a whisker thin margin for Washington.

ACTRESS
Winner: Emma Stone/La La Land
Upset: Isabelle Huppert/Elle

DIRECTOR

Winner: Damien Chazelle / La La Land
Upset: Barry Jenkins/Moonlight

BEST PICTURE

Winner: La La Land
Upset: Moonlight
Comment: Other possible upset players: Hidden Figures, Manchester by the Sea and Lion

Expected win totals:

La La Land 9
Moonlight 2
Fences 2
 No other film with more than a single win.

TFF #43 films with 13 wins.

A last thought.  I'm feeling a bit of  an intuition that La La Land might actually upset in both Original Screenplay and Costumes.


 FINAL OSCAR CALLS FROM THE EXPERTS (UPDATED)

Here the FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS from various experts.  I WILL BE UPDATING this section through Sunday:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis (and Friends)/Awards Circuit

Awards Daily

Film School Rejects

Awards Watch Podcast

Gold Derby

Metacritic

Movie City News Gurus of Gold

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Indiewire Critics Survey

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience

Jason Osiason/Fantastic Film Fans




LATE BREAKING: TORONTO TO DOWNSIZE

There are multiple reports that the Torotno International Film Festival is going to shrink its feature film lineup by about 20% or from approximately 300 films down to 240ish.

Here's that story from:

The Hollywood Reporter

Indiewire

The Playlist



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The FAC Looks at the More Obscure Oscar Categories / Feinberg Forecast Update / Spotlight In Depth

It's Monday of Oscar week...


THE FAC LOOKS AT THE MORE OBSCURE OSCAR CATEGORIES

These eight categories are where serious Oscar prognosticators are separated from the mere hobbyists.  Categories like Sound Editing and Best Live Action Short really separate the wheat from the chaff in Oscar predicting world.

So here it is.  The FAC assessment of the lesser known Oscar categories.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Mad Max: Fury Road

2) The Revenant

3) The 100 Year Old Man Who...

Comment:

The FAC has Mad Max:Fury Road as a solid but not prohibitive favorite.

COSTUMES

1) Mad Max: Fury Road

2) Carol

3) The Danish Girl

4) Cinderella

5) The Revenant

Comment:Max's lead is substantial but not insurmountable.  Carol could surprise.

SOUND EDITING

1) The Revenant

2) Mad Max: Fury Road

3) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

4) The Martian

5) Sicario

SOUND MIXING

1) The Revenant

2) Mad Max:Fury Road

3) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

4) The Martian

5) Bridge of Spies

Comment on the Sound categories:  In both cases, The Revenant lead is good but Mad Max is close enough in both categories to keep it interesting.

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Star Wars; The Force Awakens

2) The Revenant

3) Mad Max:Fury Road

4) The Martian

5) Ex Machina

Comment:  This is one of the closer categories in the entire list of 24 Oscar categories.  Star Wars is out front bu either The Revenant or Mad Max could win the trophy.

And now for the categories that really can make or break your Oscar office pool...The Shorts!

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Shok

2) Ave Maria

3) Day One

4) Stutterer

5) Everything Will Be Okay

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Claude Lanzman: Spectres of the Shoah

2) Body Team 12

3) Chau, Beyond the Lines

4) Last Day of Freedom

5) A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

ANIMATED SHORT

1) World of Tomorrow

2) Sanjay's Super Team

3) Bear Story

4) We Can't Live Without Cosmos

5) Prologue

Comments about the Short categories:  Live Action: Shok's lead is strong but any of the next three films could pick up the prize.  Doc Short: Close battle between the top three.  Animated Short: Also a close fight between the top three.

THURSDAY'S POST WILL INCLUDE THE FINAL FAC FOR ALL 24 OSCAR CATEGORIES...

FEINBERG FORECAST UPDATE

One of the sources that I use for The Film Awards Clearinghouse analysis of the Oscar race is The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg.  Scott updated hos latest forecast for Oscar winners on Friday and you can check those here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-21916/

SPOTLIGHT IN DEPTH

Spotlight trailer via YouTube

Over the past few days I have collected a number of articles, profiles, interviews and posts about TFF #42 and six time Oscar nominated film Spotlight.  Those are all linked below:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/lifestyle/names/2015/10/30/how-spotlight-movie-got-made/wXVXUiYPkoF3hEP9K4dydP/story.html?event=event25

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/awards-chatter-podcast-tom-mccarthy-867386

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/02/19/spotlight-richard-jenkins-voice-god

http://www.scpr.org/programs/the-frame/2015/11/06/45132/michael-keaton-says-spotlight-takes-a-strong-stanc/

http://blog.afi.com/afi-grad-michael-rezendes-on-the-true-story-of-spotlight/#.Vsk5r4Cg4C8.twitter

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/02/18/spotlight-mark-ruffalo-dvd
More on Thursday...

Contact me at:

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The (Probably) Final Film Awards Clearinghouse Oscar Nomination Predcitions

Here they are...what is almost the final version of the FAC before Oscar nominations are announced tomorrow morning.  I will be along tomorrow with a post-announcement post that does some analysis in terms of Telluride films as well as some general observations.

I should note here that The FAC is historically about 75-80% accurate on nomination morning,  In most categories, The FAC usually misses one nomination but it's good to note that The FAC's #6 in most categories is the film/person that picks up the nomination-also about 75% of the time.

Categories where a #7 or higher seeded film/person gets nominated are relatively rare.

That said, this year has been so weird and uncertain, I really do expect that The FAC's percentage is likely to be lower than average.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) Sanjay's Super Team 
2) We Can't Live Without the Cosmos
3) World of Tomorrow
4) Bear Story
5) If I Was God

6) Prologue
7) Love in the Time of March Madness
8) An Object at Rest
9) My Home
10) Carface


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Ave Maria
2) Shok
3) Day One
4) Stutterer
5) Everything Will Be Okay

6) Bad Hunter
7) The Free Man
8) Winter Light
9) Bis Gliech
10) Contralepo


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Claude Lanzman: Spectres of the Shoah
2) Body Team 12
3) A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
4) Last Day of Freedom
5) 50 Feet from Syria

6) Minertia
7) My Enemy, My Brother
8) Starting Point
9) The Testimony
10) Chau, Beyond the Lines

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Inside Out
2) Anomalisa
3) Shaun the Sheep
4) The Good Dinosaur
5) The Peanuts Movie

6) Kahlil Gibron's The Prophet
7) Minions
8) When Marnie Was There
9) Boy and the World
10) Home

Comment:  "Inside Out" and "Anomalisa" are locks.  It'll be interesting to see if the category goes a to five nominees all of which will be honored to be nominated in a year where "Inside Out" has the Oscar in a death grip.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Danish Girl
2) Carol
3) Bridge of Spies
4) Mad Max: Fury Road
5) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

6) Cinderella
7) The Martian
8) Brooklyn
9) The Hateful Eight
10) The Revenant

Comment:  A very, very competitive category.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Hateful Eight
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) Carol
4) The Danish Girl
5) Bridge of Spies

6) Spotlight
7) Inside Out
8) Steve Jobs
9) Sicario
10) Mad Max: Fury Road

Comment: The films' scores listed in the 4-7 positions are probably in a real fight for the last two spots in the category.


BEST SONG

1) 'Til It Happens to You/The Hunting Ground
2) See You Again/Furious 7
3) Simple Song #3/Youth
4) Love Me Like You Do/50 Shades of Grey
5) Writing's on the Wall/Spectre

6) Earned It/50 Shades of Grey
7) So Long/Concussion
8) Flashlight/Pitch Perfect 2
9) Feels Like Summer/Shaun the Sheep
10) I'll See You in My Dreams/I'll See You in My Dreams (tie)
10) Cold One/Rikki and the Flash

Comment: Try on these phrases...Oscar nominees "50 Shades of Grey" and/or "Furious 7".  Looks like it could really happen.  Maybe twice for "50 Shades".


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Carol
2) The Danish Girl
3) Cinderella
4) Brooklyn
5) Mad Max: Fury Road

6) The Hateful Eight
7) The Revenant
8) The Crimson Peak
9) Suffragette
10) Trumbo

Comment: The top four spots seem relatively certain with a big scrum for the fifth nomination.

If The FAC is 100% accurate, Telluride films in these categories will earn fur nominations with another three possibilities.


MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Black Mass
3) The Revenant

4) Mr. Holmes
5) The 100 Year Old Man...
6) Concussion
7) Legend


VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Star Wars; The Force Awakens
2) The Martian
3) Mad Max; Fury Road
4) The Walk
5) Jurassic World

6) Transformers: Age of Ultron
7) Ex Machina
8) The Revenant
9) Ant Man
10) Tomorrowland

Comment;  The top three films look solid for a nomination here.  After them, it's up for grabs for the last two spots.

SOUND MIXING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) The Martian
4) The Revenant
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Sicario
7) Spectre
8) Jurassic World
9) Straight Outta Compton
10) Creed


SOUND EDITING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) The Martian
3) The Revenant
4) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Jurassic World
7) Spectre
8) Inside Out
9) Sicario
10) In the Heart of the Sea

Comment:The top three in Mixing and the top four in Editing seem to be solid.  Oft times a musical film will nose its way into one or both of these categories, especially Mixing.  "Compton" and "Love and Mercy" might sneak in, but even that appears unlikely.


BEST FILM EDITING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road (1)
2) The Martian (3)
3) Spotlight (2)
4) The Revenant (5)
5) The Big Short (4)

6) Bridge of Spies (60
7) Sicario (9)
8) Straight Outta Compton (NR)
9) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
10) Creed (10)


Comment: In light of the A.C.E. Eddie nominations, don't be surprised if "Spotlight" is replaced by Sicario or Bridge of Spies.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

1) Amy (1)
2) The Look of Silence (2)
3) Cartel Land (10)
4) Going Clear (3)
5) He Named Me Malala (7)

6) Where Are You Miss Simone? (9)
7) Listen to Me Marlon (8)
8) Where to Invade Next (6)
9) Best of Enemies (4)
10) The Hunting Ground (5)

Hot: Cartel Land, Malala, Miss Simone
Not: Where to Invade, Enemies and Hunting Ground

Comment: Really, after the first two docs, the category is still wide open...all the way down to the 11th place film: Winter on Fire.


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Son of Saul (1)
2) Mustang (3)
3) Labyrinth of Lies (2)
4) A War (NR)
5) Viva (7)

6) Theeb (NR)
7) A New Testament (NR)
8) Embrace of the Serpent (NR)
9) The Fencer (NR)

Son of Saul remains the big favorite, although Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention reports that "Saul" was one of the films added to semi-final list by the FLF committee rather than by the vote of the branch members which may indicate some serious weakness in its position.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Revenant (1)
2) Sicario (3)
3) Mad Max: Fury Road (2)
4) Carol (5)
5) The Hateful Eight (4)

6) Bridge of Spies (7)
7) The Martian (6)
8) Son of Saul (9)
9) Brooklyn (NR)
10) Creed (10)


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Room (1)
2) The Big Short (5)
3) The Martian (3)
4) Steve Jobs (2)
5) Carol (6)

6) Brooklyn (4)
7) Anomalisa (7)
8) The Revenant (8)
9) Trumbo (9)
10) Creed (10)

Hot: The Big Short
Not: Steve Jobs and Brooklyn

Comment: The Big Short solidifies its position in the category.  The numbers suggest that the only real threats below the top five are Brooklyn and The Revenant.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (3)
4) Bridge of Spies (4)
5) Ex Machina (5)

6) Straight Outta Compton (8)
7) Sicario (10)
8) Joy (6)
9) Trainwreck (7)
10) Youth (9)

Hot: Compton and Sicario
Not: Joy and Trainwreck

Comment:  Like Adapted Screenplays, the top ten remained consistent but there was good deal of jostling below the top five.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Rooney Mara/Carol (3)
2) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
3) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (5)

6) Helen Mirren/Trumbo (6)
7) Alicia Vikander/Ex Machina (10)
8) Jane Fonda/Youth (7)
9) Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria (9)
10) Joan Allen/Room (NR)

Hot: Mara, Vikander (for Ex Machina) and Allen
Not: Vikander (for The Danish Girl) and Banks

Comment: Vikander drops here because she's picking up steam in the lead category for the same role and then the  possibilities get even weirder.  What if Vikander gets enough support to be nominated for both Danish AND Ex Machina in THIS category and misses in Lead?  That could happen too.

My head hurts...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (1)
2) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (3)
3) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (2)
4) Christian Bale/The Big Short (9)
5) Michael Shannon/99 Homes (4) (TFF #41)

6) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (8)
7) Jacob Tremblay/Room (5)
8) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (6)
9) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy (7)
10) Benicio Del Toro/Sicario (NR)

Hot: Bale, Ruffalo and Del Toro
Not: Tremblay, Keaton, Dano and Hardy

Comment: Rylance is possibly your only sure bet in this category,  Elba and Stallone are very likely...but I wouldn't even call them locks at this point.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (2)
3) Cate Blanchett/Carol (3)
4) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (4)
5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy (5)

6) Rooney Mara/Carol (6)
7) Helen Mirren/Woman in Gold (9)
8) Lily Tomlin/Grandma (8)
9) Charlize Theron/Mad Max:Fury Road (NR)
10) Maggie Smith/The Lady in the Van (NR)

Hot: Dame Helen, Theron and Dame Maggie
Not: Silverman and Mulligan

Comment:  A "stable" category through the five nomination spots...BUT... what if Mara bumps Lawrence because the Academy isn't buying The Weinstien Company's campaign for her in Supporting?  The same question could be asked  about Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl, who sits at #11 on the Best Actress FAC.  That would/could turn both female acting categories on their heads.
What if there is enough bleed over for one or both women that one or both miss being nominated in either category (though Vikander has a real shot at getting in Supporting for Ex Machina...which is also, arguably a lead role as well)?

What are Oscars rules if one or both get enough votes for the same role to be nominated in either category?  MAYHEM!

Thursday morning could be REALLY interesting.

BEST ACTOR

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (1)
2) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo (5)
3) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs (2)
4) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (3)
5) Matt Damon/The Martian (4)

6) Johnny Depp/Black Mass (6)
7) Will Smith/Concussion (7)
8) Michael B. Jordan/Creed (NR)
9) Michael Caine/Youth (9)
10) Steve Carell/The Big Short (10)

Hot: Cranston, Jordan
Not: McKellen

Comment: It seems to me that this category might be locked with the top five.

BEST DIRECTION



1)  Ridley Scott/The Martian (2)
2) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (1)
3) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (3)
4) George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road (4)
5) Adam McKay/The Big Short (6)

6) Todd Haynes/Carol (5)
7) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies (6)
8) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (7)
9) F. Gary Gray/Straight Outta Compton (NR)
10) Denis Villenueve/Sicario (NR)

Hot: McKay, Gray, Villenueve
Not: Tarantino and Crowley

Comment:  Adam McKay is so hot that you need to expect he gets a nomination on Thursday morning.  If that happens, who gets bumped?  The FAC suggests its Haynes.  This category seems really bunched through the top seven spots and even Abrahamson and Gray could surprise.

BEST PICTURE

1) Spotlight (1)
2) The Big Short (8)
3) The Martian (2)
4) The Revenant (3)
5) Mad Max: Fury Road (7)
6) Bridge of Spies (9)
7) Carol (6)
8) Brooklyn (5)

9) Room (4)
10) Straight Outta Compton (NR)
11) Inside Out (10)
12) Sicario (NR)

Hot: The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, Bridge of Spies, Straight Outta Compton and Sicario
Not: Brooklyn, Room, Steve Jobs, The Hateful Eight

Comment: The fluidity and uncertainty of so much of this in this year's Oscar race is underlined by the presence of nine different films listed above as either hot or not.  It's crazy to be this close to nomination day and still have this lack of clarity.


If The FAC is 100% accurate  (bahahahaha)...then these statements will be true tomorrow morning:

Telluride films will earn 30 (28 for TFF #42 and 2 for TFF #41) nominations (with another 16 possible).

Carol will lead all Telluride films with eight nominations: Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume and Score.  It has two other possibilities: Best Direction and a switch of Rooney Mara from Supporting to Lead Actress for a maximum of nine nominations.

For a good long while, I thought Carol would lead the tally board on Oscar nomination morning but it looks like that honor will go to Mad Max: Fury Road...see below...

Spotlight will get five nominations: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Film Editing (although that's pretty iffy).  It has the possibility of another three nominations; two for Supporting Actor and Score.

Steve Jobs will get three nominations: Best Actor, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay.  It has a shot an additional nomination four Original Score.

Room will be only nominated twice:  Best Actress and Adapted Screenplay.  Room is also possible for Picture, Director, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress.

TFF films that will get single nominations but have a shot at more include:

Black Mass: Nomination for Makeup/Hair and Johnny Depp might still sneak into the Best Actor race.

Anomalisa: Nomination for Best Animated Feature and a shot at Best Adapted Screenplay.

Son of Saul: Nomination for Best Foreign Film and a possibility for Best Cinematography.

Single nominations with no additional possibilities predicted by The FAC include:

He Named Me Malala: Best Documentary Feature
The Look of Silence: Best Documentary Feature (TFF #41)
Viva: Best Foreign Language Film
Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation: Best Supporting Actor
Michael Shannon/99 Homes (TFF #41) : Best Supporting Actor
Sanjay's Super Team: Best Animated Short
Day One: Best Live Action Short
Everything Will Be Fine: Best Live Action Short

The only other feature film nomination possibility looks to be Suffragette for Best Costumes.
Other shorts possibilities are Prologue and Carface which are both animated shorts.


I'll be posting more later today as MTFB/FAC provides links to the final Oscar predictions of various experts so. check back here from time to time over the next 24 hours.  As mentioned above, I'll post an Oscar/Telluride analysis sometime around midday tomorrow.

What's your Oscar thinking???

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

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