The FAC for Eight More Oscar Categories / The SAG and Best Picture / Gold Derby Experts on Oscar and DGA

Good Thursday to All...

We're a little more than three weeks away from Oscar night (Feb. 28th).  Ballots for the final voting go out to the AMPAS membership on Feb. 12 and the voting closes on Feb. 23.

Coming up this weekend is the announcement from The Directors Guild.


THE FAC AND EIGHT MORE OSCAR CATEGORIES

Last week, I posted the first FAC for what are regarded as the eight major Oscar categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress and Actor, and Screenplays).  Today I'm posting the numbers that I ran this week on eight more categories.


For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire

Some of these experts have not yet updated their predictions.  That data has been discounted.

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Inside Out
2) Anomalisa
3) Shaun the Sheep
4) When Marnie Was Here
5) Boy and the World

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Amy
2) Cartel Land
3) What Happened Miss Simone
4) The Look of Silence
5) Winter on Fire

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Son of Saul
2) Mustang
3) Theeb
4) Embrace of the Serpent
5) A War

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Revenant
2) Mad Max:Fury Road
3) Carol
4) Sicario
5) The Hateful Eight

FILM EDITING

1) The Big Short

2) Mad Max: Fury Road

3) The Revenant

4) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

5) Spotlight

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Hateful Eight

2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

3) Carol

4) Bridge of Spies

5) Sicario

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Til It Happens To You/The Hunting Ground

2) Writings on the Wall/Spectre

3) Earned It/50 Shades of Gray

4) Simple Song #3/Youth

5) Manta Ray/Racing Extinction

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Mad Max:Fury Road

2) The Revenant

3) The Martian

4) Bridge of Spies

5) The Danish Girl

 Of the 40 nominations in these eight categories, seven are from Telluride.  Only one seems likely to be a winner and that's Son of Saul in Foreign Language.

Other comments: Prohibitive favorites...Inside Out for Animated Feature, Amy for Documentary, Son of Saul for Foreign Language , The Revenant Cinematography, The Hateful Eight for Original Score, Til It Happens To You for Original Song.  The Big Short is a substantial, though not prohibitive favorite, for Film Editing.  

The most seriously contested category of these eight seems to be Production Design.  Mad Max: Fury Road is on top but that lead appears to be vulnerable.

THE SAG AND BEST PICTURE

A lot has been written the last few days as to what conclusions may or may not be drawn by the Spotlight win for The Screen Actors Guild Best Ensemble Award.  Some commenters suggested that it has buoyed Spotlight's Best Picture Oscar prospects after the loss of the PGA honor went to The Big Short.  Other experts have pointed out that The SAG award hasn't been particularly predictive or influential as it has only matched 10 times in the 20 years that SAG has been giving its Best Ensemble prize.

I have been thinking that it might be that the SAG award might be more indicative in years when the BP race was perceived to have been close.  That's mostly because the Actors branch of AMPAS is the largest branch.  Actors, consequently, have the largest influence in Oscar voting.  

Also, it should be noted that, although the SAG has matched only 50% of the time, if we begin counting from the first match of Ensemble and Best Picture, the match has been times in the last 17 years for a bit more respectable rate of 59%.

So, here are the matches:

1998: Shakespeare in Love
1999: American Beauty
2002: Chicago
2003: Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
2005: Crash
2007: No Country for Old Men
2008: Slumdog Millionaire
2010: The King's Speech
2012: Argo
2014: Birdman

So SAG's Ensemble was on top of two big "surprise" years: 1998 (Shakespeare over Saving Private Ryan) and 2005 (Crash over Brokeback Mountain).  It also seemed ahead of the game in what were perceived as close years 2002 (Chicago), 2007 (No Country), 2010 (King's Speech) and 2014 (Birdman).  There are four years of matches that SAG seemed to be going with the overwhelming current: 1999, 2003, 2008 and 2012.

My perception is that this year is close between Spotlight, Big Short, Revenant and Mad Max.  So, maybe SAG tells us that Spotlight, despite the loss at the PGA, is still a serious possibility to win the big prize.

Will the Directors Guild announcement clear things up this weekend?  It might.  Should McKay (Big Short) or McCarthy (Spotlight) win, it would move one film or the other back to front runner status.  

However, I am really expecting the trophy to go to George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road) or Alejandro Inarritu (The Revenant) this weekend and actually muddy up the race even more.

The DGA announces their winners on Saturday.



GOLD DERBY EXPERTS ON OSCAR AND DGA

Pete Hammond of Deadline and Tom O'Neill of Gold Derby went on the record both visually and in podcast form this week to opine about major Oscar races and their thoughts concerning the Directors Guild announcement this week.


Take a look or listen here:

http://www.goldderby.com/news/11631/oscars-predictions-revenant-spotlight-entertainment-91350486-story.html



That's a wrap for Thursday....Come back for more on Monday...



Come back for more on Thursday!

Contact me at:

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mpgort@gmail.com OR

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The (Probably) Final Film Awards Clearinghouse Oscar Nomination Predcitions

Here they are...what is almost the final version of the FAC before Oscar nominations are announced tomorrow morning.  I will be along tomorrow with a post-announcement post that does some analysis in terms of Telluride films as well as some general observations.

I should note here that The FAC is historically about 75-80% accurate on nomination morning,  In most categories, The FAC usually misses one nomination but it's good to note that The FAC's #6 in most categories is the film/person that picks up the nomination-also about 75% of the time.

Categories where a #7 or higher seeded film/person gets nominated are relatively rare.

That said, this year has been so weird and uncertain, I really do expect that The FAC's percentage is likely to be lower than average.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) Sanjay's Super Team 
2) We Can't Live Without the Cosmos
3) World of Tomorrow
4) Bear Story
5) If I Was God

6) Prologue
7) Love in the Time of March Madness
8) An Object at Rest
9) My Home
10) Carface


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Ave Maria
2) Shok
3) Day One
4) Stutterer
5) Everything Will Be Okay

6) Bad Hunter
7) The Free Man
8) Winter Light
9) Bis Gliech
10) Contralepo


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Claude Lanzman: Spectres of the Shoah
2) Body Team 12
3) A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
4) Last Day of Freedom
5) 50 Feet from Syria

6) Minertia
7) My Enemy, My Brother
8) Starting Point
9) The Testimony
10) Chau, Beyond the Lines

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Inside Out
2) Anomalisa
3) Shaun the Sheep
4) The Good Dinosaur
5) The Peanuts Movie

6) Kahlil Gibron's The Prophet
7) Minions
8) When Marnie Was There
9) Boy and the World
10) Home

Comment:  "Inside Out" and "Anomalisa" are locks.  It'll be interesting to see if the category goes a to five nominees all of which will be honored to be nominated in a year where "Inside Out" has the Oscar in a death grip.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Danish Girl
2) Carol
3) Bridge of Spies
4) Mad Max: Fury Road
5) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

6) Cinderella
7) The Martian
8) Brooklyn
9) The Hateful Eight
10) The Revenant

Comment:  A very, very competitive category.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Hateful Eight
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) Carol
4) The Danish Girl
5) Bridge of Spies

6) Spotlight
7) Inside Out
8) Steve Jobs
9) Sicario
10) Mad Max: Fury Road

Comment: The films' scores listed in the 4-7 positions are probably in a real fight for the last two spots in the category.


BEST SONG

1) 'Til It Happens to You/The Hunting Ground
2) See You Again/Furious 7
3) Simple Song #3/Youth
4) Love Me Like You Do/50 Shades of Grey
5) Writing's on the Wall/Spectre

6) Earned It/50 Shades of Grey
7) So Long/Concussion
8) Flashlight/Pitch Perfect 2
9) Feels Like Summer/Shaun the Sheep
10) I'll See You in My Dreams/I'll See You in My Dreams (tie)
10) Cold One/Rikki and the Flash

Comment: Try on these phrases...Oscar nominees "50 Shades of Grey" and/or "Furious 7".  Looks like it could really happen.  Maybe twice for "50 Shades".


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Carol
2) The Danish Girl
3) Cinderella
4) Brooklyn
5) Mad Max: Fury Road

6) The Hateful Eight
7) The Revenant
8) The Crimson Peak
9) Suffragette
10) Trumbo

Comment: The top four spots seem relatively certain with a big scrum for the fifth nomination.

If The FAC is 100% accurate, Telluride films in these categories will earn fur nominations with another three possibilities.


MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Black Mass
3) The Revenant

4) Mr. Holmes
5) The 100 Year Old Man...
6) Concussion
7) Legend


VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Star Wars; The Force Awakens
2) The Martian
3) Mad Max; Fury Road
4) The Walk
5) Jurassic World

6) Transformers: Age of Ultron
7) Ex Machina
8) The Revenant
9) Ant Man
10) Tomorrowland

Comment;  The top three films look solid for a nomination here.  After them, it's up for grabs for the last two spots.

SOUND MIXING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) The Martian
4) The Revenant
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Sicario
7) Spectre
8) Jurassic World
9) Straight Outta Compton
10) Creed


SOUND EDITING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) The Martian
3) The Revenant
4) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Jurassic World
7) Spectre
8) Inside Out
9) Sicario
10) In the Heart of the Sea

Comment:The top three in Mixing and the top four in Editing seem to be solid.  Oft times a musical film will nose its way into one or both of these categories, especially Mixing.  "Compton" and "Love and Mercy" might sneak in, but even that appears unlikely.


BEST FILM EDITING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road (1)
2) The Martian (3)
3) Spotlight (2)
4) The Revenant (5)
5) The Big Short (4)

6) Bridge of Spies (60
7) Sicario (9)
8) Straight Outta Compton (NR)
9) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
10) Creed (10)


Comment: In light of the A.C.E. Eddie nominations, don't be surprised if "Spotlight" is replaced by Sicario or Bridge of Spies.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

1) Amy (1)
2) The Look of Silence (2)
3) Cartel Land (10)
4) Going Clear (3)
5) He Named Me Malala (7)

6) Where Are You Miss Simone? (9)
7) Listen to Me Marlon (8)
8) Where to Invade Next (6)
9) Best of Enemies (4)
10) The Hunting Ground (5)

Hot: Cartel Land, Malala, Miss Simone
Not: Where to Invade, Enemies and Hunting Ground

Comment: Really, after the first two docs, the category is still wide open...all the way down to the 11th place film: Winter on Fire.


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Son of Saul (1)
2) Mustang (3)
3) Labyrinth of Lies (2)
4) A War (NR)
5) Viva (7)

6) Theeb (NR)
7) A New Testament (NR)
8) Embrace of the Serpent (NR)
9) The Fencer (NR)

Son of Saul remains the big favorite, although Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention reports that "Saul" was one of the films added to semi-final list by the FLF committee rather than by the vote of the branch members which may indicate some serious weakness in its position.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Revenant (1)
2) Sicario (3)
3) Mad Max: Fury Road (2)
4) Carol (5)
5) The Hateful Eight (4)

6) Bridge of Spies (7)
7) The Martian (6)
8) Son of Saul (9)
9) Brooklyn (NR)
10) Creed (10)


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Room (1)
2) The Big Short (5)
3) The Martian (3)
4) Steve Jobs (2)
5) Carol (6)

6) Brooklyn (4)
7) Anomalisa (7)
8) The Revenant (8)
9) Trumbo (9)
10) Creed (10)

Hot: The Big Short
Not: Steve Jobs and Brooklyn

Comment: The Big Short solidifies its position in the category.  The numbers suggest that the only real threats below the top five are Brooklyn and The Revenant.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (3)
4) Bridge of Spies (4)
5) Ex Machina (5)

6) Straight Outta Compton (8)
7) Sicario (10)
8) Joy (6)
9) Trainwreck (7)
10) Youth (9)

Hot: Compton and Sicario
Not: Joy and Trainwreck

Comment:  Like Adapted Screenplays, the top ten remained consistent but there was good deal of jostling below the top five.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Rooney Mara/Carol (3)
2) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
3) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (5)

6) Helen Mirren/Trumbo (6)
7) Alicia Vikander/Ex Machina (10)
8) Jane Fonda/Youth (7)
9) Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria (9)
10) Joan Allen/Room (NR)

Hot: Mara, Vikander (for Ex Machina) and Allen
Not: Vikander (for The Danish Girl) and Banks

Comment: Vikander drops here because she's picking up steam in the lead category for the same role and then the  possibilities get even weirder.  What if Vikander gets enough support to be nominated for both Danish AND Ex Machina in THIS category and misses in Lead?  That could happen too.

My head hurts...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (1)
2) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (3)
3) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (2)
4) Christian Bale/The Big Short (9)
5) Michael Shannon/99 Homes (4) (TFF #41)

6) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (8)
7) Jacob Tremblay/Room (5)
8) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (6)
9) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy (7)
10) Benicio Del Toro/Sicario (NR)

Hot: Bale, Ruffalo and Del Toro
Not: Tremblay, Keaton, Dano and Hardy

Comment: Rylance is possibly your only sure bet in this category,  Elba and Stallone are very likely...but I wouldn't even call them locks at this point.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (2)
3) Cate Blanchett/Carol (3)
4) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (4)
5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy (5)

6) Rooney Mara/Carol (6)
7) Helen Mirren/Woman in Gold (9)
8) Lily Tomlin/Grandma (8)
9) Charlize Theron/Mad Max:Fury Road (NR)
10) Maggie Smith/The Lady in the Van (NR)

Hot: Dame Helen, Theron and Dame Maggie
Not: Silverman and Mulligan

Comment:  A "stable" category through the five nomination spots...BUT... what if Mara bumps Lawrence because the Academy isn't buying The Weinstien Company's campaign for her in Supporting?  The same question could be asked  about Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl, who sits at #11 on the Best Actress FAC.  That would/could turn both female acting categories on their heads.
What if there is enough bleed over for one or both women that one or both miss being nominated in either category (though Vikander has a real shot at getting in Supporting for Ex Machina...which is also, arguably a lead role as well)?

What are Oscars rules if one or both get enough votes for the same role to be nominated in either category?  MAYHEM!

Thursday morning could be REALLY interesting.

BEST ACTOR

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (1)
2) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo (5)
3) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs (2)
4) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (3)
5) Matt Damon/The Martian (4)

6) Johnny Depp/Black Mass (6)
7) Will Smith/Concussion (7)
8) Michael B. Jordan/Creed (NR)
9) Michael Caine/Youth (9)
10) Steve Carell/The Big Short (10)

Hot: Cranston, Jordan
Not: McKellen

Comment: It seems to me that this category might be locked with the top five.

BEST DIRECTION



1)  Ridley Scott/The Martian (2)
2) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (1)
3) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (3)
4) George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road (4)
5) Adam McKay/The Big Short (6)

6) Todd Haynes/Carol (5)
7) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies (6)
8) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (7)
9) F. Gary Gray/Straight Outta Compton (NR)
10) Denis Villenueve/Sicario (NR)

Hot: McKay, Gray, Villenueve
Not: Tarantino and Crowley

Comment:  Adam McKay is so hot that you need to expect he gets a nomination on Thursday morning.  If that happens, who gets bumped?  The FAC suggests its Haynes.  This category seems really bunched through the top seven spots and even Abrahamson and Gray could surprise.

BEST PICTURE

1) Spotlight (1)
2) The Big Short (8)
3) The Martian (2)
4) The Revenant (3)
5) Mad Max: Fury Road (7)
6) Bridge of Spies (9)
7) Carol (6)
8) Brooklyn (5)

9) Room (4)
10) Straight Outta Compton (NR)
11) Inside Out (10)
12) Sicario (NR)

Hot: The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, Bridge of Spies, Straight Outta Compton and Sicario
Not: Brooklyn, Room, Steve Jobs, The Hateful Eight

Comment: The fluidity and uncertainty of so much of this in this year's Oscar race is underlined by the presence of nine different films listed above as either hot or not.  It's crazy to be this close to nomination day and still have this lack of clarity.


If The FAC is 100% accurate  (bahahahaha)...then these statements will be true tomorrow morning:

Telluride films will earn 30 (28 for TFF #42 and 2 for TFF #41) nominations (with another 16 possible).

Carol will lead all Telluride films with eight nominations: Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume and Score.  It has two other possibilities: Best Direction and a switch of Rooney Mara from Supporting to Lead Actress for a maximum of nine nominations.

For a good long while, I thought Carol would lead the tally board on Oscar nomination morning but it looks like that honor will go to Mad Max: Fury Road...see below...

Spotlight will get five nominations: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Film Editing (although that's pretty iffy).  It has the possibility of another three nominations; two for Supporting Actor and Score.

Steve Jobs will get three nominations: Best Actor, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay.  It has a shot an additional nomination four Original Score.

Room will be only nominated twice:  Best Actress and Adapted Screenplay.  Room is also possible for Picture, Director, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress.

TFF films that will get single nominations but have a shot at more include:

Black Mass: Nomination for Makeup/Hair and Johnny Depp might still sneak into the Best Actor race.

Anomalisa: Nomination for Best Animated Feature and a shot at Best Adapted Screenplay.

Son of Saul: Nomination for Best Foreign Film and a possibility for Best Cinematography.

Single nominations with no additional possibilities predicted by The FAC include:

He Named Me Malala: Best Documentary Feature
The Look of Silence: Best Documentary Feature (TFF #41)
Viva: Best Foreign Language Film
Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation: Best Supporting Actor
Michael Shannon/99 Homes (TFF #41) : Best Supporting Actor
Sanjay's Super Team: Best Animated Short
Day One: Best Live Action Short
Everything Will Be Fine: Best Live Action Short

The only other feature film nomination possibility looks to be Suffragette for Best Costumes.
Other shorts possibilities are Prologue and Carface which are both animated shorts.


I'll be posting more later today as MTFB/FAC provides links to the final Oscar predictions of various experts so. check back here from time to time over the next 24 hours.  As mentioned above, I'll post an Oscar/Telluride analysis sometime around midday tomorrow.

What's your Oscar thinking???

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

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Four More Oscar Tech Categories and The FAC / Sasha and Kris are Saying... / "Spotlight" Wins NSFC

Good First Monday of 2016 Everyone...  back to the grind... real and imagined...


FOUR MORE OSCAR TECH CATEGORIES AND THE FAC

As we edge ever closer to Oscar nomination morning, the Film Awards Clearinghouse takes a look at the positioning of the films in the only categories that I haven't enumerated as yet: Makeup/Hair, Visual Effects, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Black Mass
3) The Revenant

4) Mr. Holmes
5) The 100 Year Old Man...
6) Concussion
7) Legend


Comment:  The only possible Telluride connected nominee from the four categories that the blog examines today as "Black Mass" has a chance to be nominated here.


VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Star Wars; The Force Awakens
2) The Martian
3) Mad Max; Fury Road
4) The Walk
5) Jurassic World

6) Transformers: Age of Ultron
7) Ex Machina
8) The Revenant
9) Ant Man
10) Tomorrowland

Comment;  The top three films look solid for a nomination here.  After them, it's up for grabs for the last two spots.

SOUND MIXING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) The Martian
4) The Revenant
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Sicario
7) Spectre
8) Jurassic World
9) Straight Outta Compton
10) Creed


SOUND EDITING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) The Martian
3) The Revanant
4) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Jurassic World
7) Spectre
8) Inside Out
9) Sicario
10) In the Heart of the Sea

Comment:The top three in Mixing and the top four in Editing seem to be solid.  Oft times a musical film will nose its way into one or both of these categories, especially Mixing.  "Compton" and "Love and Mercy" might sneak in, but even that appears unlikely.


Oscar nomination announcement day is now just 10 days away and as I post the next three MTFB/FACs, I'll update the categories so that we'll have an up to date picture as we arrive at Nomination morning on Jan. 14.


I'll update  these categories on Thursday: Screenplays, Cinematography, Editing, Documentary and Foreign Language Film.



SASHA AND KRIS ARE SAYING...



Last Thursday I looked specifically at the latest Oscar predictions from The Hollywood Reporter's Oscar ace Scott Feinberg to see how Telluride films would pan out if he's 100% correct.  Today I'm posting the same process to Kristopher Tapley of Variety's InContention and Sasha Stone of Awards Daily.  Here are their latest picks for each T-ride film:

From Tapley:

"Spotlight" (7): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Keaton), Supporting Actress (McAdams), Original Screenplay, Editing and Score.

"Carol" (5) Best Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Costumes.

"Steve Jobs" (4) Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score

"Room" (3) Best Picture, Actress, Adapted Screenplay

"Black Mass" (2) Best Actor, Makeup/Hair

Singles for:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
"The Look of Silence" (TFF #41) Best Documentary

T-ride total = 26 for TFF #42 (27 if you count the TFF #41 "Look of Silence")


From Stone:

"Carol" (8) Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Score.

"Spotlight" (5) Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, Score

"Room" (4) Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay

"Steve Jobs" (3) Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay

Singles for:

"Beasts of No Nation" Supporting Actor
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
"He Named Me Malala" Best Documentary
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary (TFF #41)

T-ride total from Stone: 25 (with a 26th if you count TFF #41's "Look of Silence")

Here's the material I blogged about from Feinberg last Thursday:

 If Feinberg is right, T-ride films are nominated as follows:

"Carol" (7): Best Film, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Costume, Cinematography and Score.
"Spotlight" (6):  Best Film, Direction, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score and Film Editing.
"Room" (4): Best Film, Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design
"Steve Jobs" (3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.

All other films from Telluride would be single nominated films:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film

And from TFF #41:

"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary
"99 Homes" Best Supporting Actor.


Telluride totals would be 27 nominations (with two of those from TFF 2014).


If you combine all three of these Oscar pundits to look for the maximum Telluride bang for the buck you could see "Carol" with 10 nominations, "Spotlight" with seven (eight, if it gets three acting nominations), "Room" with five, "Steve Jobs" with four, "Black Mass" with two and TFF #41 with an additional six nominations for one offs for "Beasts", "Saul", "Viva", "45 Years", Anomalisa and "Malala" and an additional two nominations dating back to TFF #41 films.



"SPOTLIGHT" WINS NSFC

Tom McCarthy's "Spotlight" was named Best Picture of the year by the National Society of Film Critics yesterday.  Other Telluride-centric films that were winners or runners-up yesterday in the NSFC voting were:

Best Picture 1st RU: "Carol"
Best Director: Todd Haynes/ "Carol", 1st RU: Tom McCarthy/"Spotlight"
Best Actor 1st RU: Geza Rorhig/"Son of Saul", 2nd RU: Tom Courtenay/"45 Years"
Best Actress: Charlotte Rampling/"45 Years"
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Shannon/"99 Homes" (TFF #41)
Best Supporting Actress; 2nd RU Kate Winslet/"Steve Jobs"
Best Screenplay: "Spotlight", 1st RU: "Anomalisa"
Best Cinematography: "Carol"
Best Non-Fiction Film: 2nd RU "Seymour: An Introduction" (TFF #41)

Full coverage f the NSFC results are here:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/national-society-of-film-critics-awards-2016-full-list-1201670781/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/criticwire/national-society-of-film-critics-awards-2015-20160103

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/national-society-of-film-critics-gives-best-picture-to-oscar-frontrunner-spotlight-20160103

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/national-society-film-critics-2016-851756


That's all for Monday.  More updated Oscar categories will be here on Thursday...


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michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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New Oscar Categories Get The FAC Treatment / Like I Said on Monday...Haneke / Oscar Matters: The Latest Fienberg Forecast

Good Thursday film fans...

Oscar nomination morning is a minuscule two weeks away...the anticipation mounts!

NEW OSCAR CATEGORIES GET THE FAC TREATMENT

As we get closer to the announcement of Oscar nominations, The FAC takes its first look at the animated feature race and a number of technical categories.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Inside Out
2) Anomalisa
3) Shaun the Sheep
4) The Good Dinosaur
5) The Peanuts Movie

6) Kahlil Gibron's The Prophet
7) Minions
8) When Marnie Was There
9) Boy and the World
10) Home

Comment:  "Inside Out" and "Anomalisa" are locks.  It'll be interesting to see if the category goes a to five nominees all of which will be honored to be nominated in a year where "Inside Out" has the Oscar in a death grip.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Danish Girl
2) Carol
3) Bridge of Spies
4) Mad Max: Fury Road
5) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

6) Cinderella
7) The Martian
8) Brooklyn
9) The Hateful Eight
10) The Revenant

Comment:  A very, very competitive category.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Hateful Eight
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) Carol
4) The Danish Girl
5) Bridge of Spies

6) Spotlight
7) Inside Out
8) Steve Jobs
9) Sicario
10) Mad Max: Fury Road

Comment: The films' scores listed in the 4-7 positions are probably in a real fight for the last two spots in the category.


BEST SONG

1) 'Til It Happens to You/The Hunting Ground
2) See You Again/Furious 7
3) Simple Song #3/Youth
4) Love Me Like You Do/50 Shades of Grey
5) Writing's on the Wall/Spectre

6) Earned It/50 Shades of Grey
7) So Long/Concussion
8) Flashlight/Pitch Perfect 2
9) Feels Like Summer/Shaun the Sheep
10) I'll See You in My Dreams/I'll See You in My Dreams (tie)
10) Cold One/Rikki and the Flash

Comment: Try on these phrases...Oscar nominees "50 Shades of Grey" and/or "Furious 7".  Looks like it could really happen.  Maybe twice for "50 Shades".


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Carol
2) The Danish Girl
3) Cinderella
4) Brooklyn
5) Mad Max: Fury Road

6) The Hateful Eight
7) The Revenant
8) The Crimson Peak
9) Suffragette
10) Trumbo

Comment: The top four spots seem relatively certain with a big scrum for the fifth nomination.

If The FAC is 100% accurate, Telluride films in these categories will earn fur nominations with another three possibilities.


LIKE I SAID ON MONDAY...HANEKE

Michael Haneke and Isabelle Huppert at Cannes for "Amour" in 2012 (photo from Sipa Press/Rex Shutterstock and The Guardian)

Last Monday's post included a segment entitled "Ten Films that Could Be Telluride Bound".  Included on that list was one film without a title and that was the percolating Michael Haneke project.  Now, almost like magic, within the last couple of days, comes details of the new film including a title: " Happy End".

Considering the timing, I would expect that the completed film would be a likely entrant for Cannes in 2017 and, consequently, TFF #44.  Here is coverage from The Guardian, Film Stage and The Playlist:

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/dec/30/michael-haneke-to-reunite-with-isabelle-huppert-for-calais-set-drama

http://thefilmstage.com/news/michael-haneke-reveals-next-film-happy-end-starring-isabelle-huppert-and-jean-louis-trintignant/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/michael-haneke-reteams-with-amour-duo-isabelle-huppert-jean-louis-trintignant-for-refugee-film-happy-end-20151230



OSCAR MATTERS: LATEST FEINBERG FORECAST

The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg has just updated his latest Oscar predictions.  The nominations announcement is now just two weeks away.  You can look at Scott's whole list here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-122915/

If Feinberg is right, T-ride films are nominated as follows:

"Carol" (7): Best Film, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Costume, Cinematography and Score.
"Spotlight" (6):  Best Film, Direction, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score and Film Editing.
"Room" (4): Best Film, Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design
"Steve Jobs" (3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.

All other films from Telluride would be single nominated films:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
 
And from TFF #41:

"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary
"99 Homes" Best Supporting Actor.


Telluride totals would be 27 nominations (with two of those from TFF 2014).


More to come on Monday...HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!

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michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

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Gurus of Gold and Others Updated Oscar Forecasts / Critical Take on 2015 Gets Deeper / Lots About "Spotlight"

Good Christmas Eve and Thursday morning...


GURUS OF GOLD AND OTHERS UPDATED OSCAR FORECASTS

Move City News has an updated chart this morning for six major categories.  TFF films lay out like this in their latest tally of Oscar experts:

Best Picture:

#1 "Spotlight"
#3 "Carol"
#8 "Room"
#12 "Steve Jobs"

Best Director

#2 Tom McCarthy/"Spotlight"
#4 Todd Haynes/"Carol"
#7 Lenny Abrahamson/"Room"


Best Actress:

#1 Brie Larson/"Room"
#3 Cate Blanchett/"Carol"
#5 Charlotte Rampling/"45 Years"
#6 Carey Mulligan/"Suffragette"

Best Actor:

#3 Michael Fassbender/"Steve Jobs"
#6 Johnny Depp/"Black Mass"


Best Supporting Actress:

#1 Rooney Mara/"Carol"
#3 Kate Winslet/"Steve Jobs"
#6 Rachel McAdams/"Spotlight"

Best Supporting Actor:

#3 Idris Elba/"Beasts of No Nation"
#4 Michael Keaton/"Spotlight"
#5 Mark Ruffalo/"Spotlight"
#7 Michael Shannon/"99 Homes" (TFF #41)
#8 Jacob Tremblay/"Room"


The Gurus indicate 14 Oscar nominations for Telluride films on these six categories with another seven possibles/trade-offs.

The complete Gurus can be found here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/12/gurus-o-gold-you-better-vote-good-for-goodness-sake/

Meanwhile, The Five Star Flicks Blog has continued its project of gathering data from many Oscar prognostication sources and crunching those numbers for the Best Picture race in a different manner. Their cumulative chart has the following for BP:

#1 "Spotlight"
#4 "Room"
#6 "Carol"
#12 "Steve Jobs"
#16 "Beasts of No Nation"


That complete chart is here:

http://fivestarflicks.blogspot.com/2015/12/state-of-race-best-picture-as-of-122315.html


CRITICAL TAKE ON 2015

Metacritic continues to gather data from Critics' year end top ten lists (they're up over 160 lists so far) and here's where Telluride films rank (within their top twenty):

#2 "Carol"
#3 "Spotlight"
#8 "Son of Saul" (tie)
#8 "Anomalisa" (tie)
#10 "45 Years"
#14 "Room"
#16 "The Look of Silence" (TFF #41)


That's an incredibly impressive seven films on the cumulative top twenty from TFF.

The complete Metacritic list is here:

http://www.metacritic.com/feature/film-critics-list-the-top-10-movies-of-2015


LOTS ON "SPOTLIGHT"

Somewhat tenaciously and against the odds, "Spotlight" has continued to seem like a quiet Oscar front runner for many weeks now.  As such, it continues to be spotlighted, if you'll pardon the expression, in a number of outlets in a number of ways.  Here is a sampling of some of then latest including discussions from its producer, director, actors and musical director:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/how-open-road-ceo-tom-ortenberg-shepherded-spotlight-to-oscar-frontrunner-20151223

http://thefilmstage.com/news/morricone-talks-the-hateful-eight-thomas-mccarthy-analyzes-spotlight-45-years-tangerine-talks-and-more/

http://www.thewrap.com/spotlight-director-tom-mccarthy-talks-researching-disturbing-church-scandal-video/

http://www.thewrap.com/spotlight-star-michael-keaton-talks-actors-journalists-and-their-egos/

http://www.thewrap.com/how-mark-ruffalo-learned-to-play-an-excitable-journalist-in-spotlight-video/

http://www.thewrap.com/spotlight-star-rachel-mcadams-talks-learning-to-listen-like-a-journalist-exclusive-video/

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/12/23/interview-howard-shore-talks-composing-spotlight/


That's it for Thursday.  For all those that celebrate Christmas...I hope your tomorrow is fantastic. MTFB will return Monday with more...

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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Newest Numbers for Supporting and Screenplays from The FAC / Foreign Language Short List / Criticwire Weighs In

Good Monday to Everyone...and Happy Holidays...

NEWEST NUMBERS FROM SUPPORTING AND SCREENPLAYS

Here is the latest update foe the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories from The FAC.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
2) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
3) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (5)
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (7)

6) Helen Mirren/Trumbo (NR)
7) Jane Fonda/Youth (4)
8) Elizabeth Banks/Love and Mercy (6)
9) Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria (NR)
10) Alicia Vikander/Ex Machina (NR)

Hot: McAdams, Mirren, Stewart and Vikander for "Ex Machina"
Not: Fonda, Banks, Allen, Walters and Chastain.

Comment: Another category that has been turned upside down over the past three weeks despite the pundits claims that precursors and critics groups don't move the Oscar needle... they sure have changed the experts perceptions.  Mirren is the perfect example as she has never been in the top ten of the FAC and suddenly appears at #6 in the latest number crunching.  That's NOT because the Oscar predictors have changed their minds about the quality of her performance.  It's because she's popped up over the last couple of weeks with a SAG nomination and a Golden Globe nomination.

Meanwhile, Joan Allen (Room), Julie Walters (Brooklyn) and Jessica Chastain (The Martian) disappear from the top ten.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR


1) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (3)
2) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (8)
3) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (9)
4) Michael Shannon/99 Homes (NR)
5) Jacob Tremblay/Room (5)

6) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (2)
7) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy (6)
8) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (1)
9) Christian Bale/The Big Short (NR)
10) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (4)

Hot: Rylance, Stallone, Elba, Shannon and Bale
Not: Keaton, Ruffalo, Hardy, Del Toro and Keitel

Comment: Another category that illustrates in stark terms how volatile the season is and how little confidence the experts have in their grasp of the season.  When you have ten people listed in the "Hot/Not" list above, that tells you every thing you need to know about the categories fluidity.  Fully four of the five men that are now listed as the top five (and your presumptive nominees) were NOT in the top five on our last FAC check of the category.

Open Roads' play to have the entire "Spotlight" cast as "Supporting" players may have hurt both Keaton and Ruffalo who had seemed likely to both get a nomination up until the last couple of weeks. Now, neither man may get in and, ironically, Rachel McAdams, who has been regarded as the biggest stretch to be nominated from the cast might now be the film's best shot at an acting nomination.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Room (2)
2) Steve Jobs (1)
3) The Martian (4)
4) Brooklyn (3)
5) The Big Short (8)

6) Carol (7)
7) Anomalisa (6)
8) The Revenant (5)
9) Trumbo (NR)
10) Creed (NR)

Hot: The Big Short, Trumbo, Creed
Not: The Revenant, The Danish Girl, 45 Years

Comment:  The resilience of "Jobs" here and in the Best Actor and Supporting Actress categories continues to impress me.  "Jobs" also sits at #11 on last Thursday's FAC Best Picture list.  I'm still thinking it could be a wild card Best Pic nominee...

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (3)
4) Bridge of Spies (4)
5) Ex Machina (NR)

6) Joy (5)
7) Trainwreck (10)
8) Straight Outta Compton (NR)
9) Youth (6)
10) Sicario (7)

Hot: Ex Machina, Trainwreck, Compton
Not: Youth, Sicario, Love and Mercy and Son of Saul

Comment: My desire that "Son of Saul" get into the Best Picture conversation isn't helped as it drops out of the original screenplay top ten.


FOREIGN FILMS SHORT LIST

The Academy has winnowed all of the Best Foreign Language Film entrants down to nine films.  Two of those films played at TFF #42:  "Son of Saul" and "Viva" made the cut.  "Rams", which was thought to have a strong chance at being a semi-finalist.  It also played as a part of the TFF #42 lineup.

The complete list of films still alive for the Foreign Language Oscar:

"The Brand New Testament"/Belgium
""Embrace of the Serpent"/Colombia
"A War"/Denmark
"The Fencer"/Finland
"Mustang"/France
"Labyrinth of Lies"/Germany
"Son of Saul"/Hungary
"Viva"/Ireland
"Theeb"/Jordan

Coverage:


http://awardswatch.com/news/mustang-son-of-saul-the-fencer-make-foreign-language-film-oscar-shortlist/


CRITICWIRE WEIGHS IN

Criticwire/Indiewire published their collection of rankings of 200+ critics this week.  Telluride films ended up as follows on their list of the 50 best films of 2015:

#2 "Carol"
#3 "Spotlight"
#7 "Anomalisa"
#9 "The Look of Silence" (TFF #41)
#10 "Son of Saul"
#14 "45 Years"
#15 "Room"
#21 "Taxi"
#30 "Steve Jobs"
#35 "Heart of a Dog"





Find complete coverage and analysis and other lists for direction and performances here:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/critics-pick-the-best-films-and-performances-of-2015-in-indiewires-annual-poll-20151214



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mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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Thoughts on the Season...Oscar not Holiday / Late Breaking: Critics Choice Award Nominations and Online Film Critics / Feinberg's Latest Forecast / Interviews and Profiles / Reminders

If you didn't know...It's Monday...

THOUGHTS ON THE SEASON...OSCAR NOT HOLIDAY

My friend Sasha Stone of Awards Daily is fond of screen writer William Goldman's sage description of Hollywood: "Nobody knows anything".  It seems like that's an apt description of where we are as we come to the last few pages of the book that has been 2015 in terms of the awards season landscape.

I have been following Oscar with some seriousness since I started this blog seven years ago because I was interested to see how the films that played the Telluride Film Festival fared at Oscar time.  It's engaging and allows me to continue to have something to write about beyond the normal schtick that this space focuses on...namely "What's going to play at Telluride?"

So, as I look back at these last seven years and the way the Oscar seasons have played out, it seems to me that we have a truly anomalous year.  It seems like we should be a whole lot surer about a whole lot more about what's going on as we march toward Oscar and we just aren't.

"Nobody knows anything".  The Oscarologists are all over the place with the perceived rise and fall of a film's or an actor's awards prospects.  As an example, look at George Miller's "Mad Max: Fury Road", which hasn't been thought of as a serious Oscar Best Director/Best Picture contender has suddenly gathered a lot of momentum from its Golden Globes and critic's groups notices apparently at the expense of Ridley Scott's "The Martian".

Another factor...is category placement.  It seems to be a very obvious consideration in the campaigns for Rooney Mara for "Carol" and Alicia Vikander for both "The Danish Girl" and"Ex Machina".  It also seems to be potentially harming the cast members of Tom McCarthy's "Spotlight".  Keaton and Ruffalo seemed like that might be able to pull off the feat of both being nominated for Supporting Actor from the same film but the precursors up to this point are pointing to the greater likelihood that neither guy gets in.

So, as we move through this next week (with notable news from the Online Film Critics Society, the Broadcast Film Critics Association and The American Film Institute) maybe what we DO know IS that "Nobody knows anything" which is making for what is an unusual, dynamic and surprising 2015 Oscar season.

So, despite nobody knowing anything...here's a reminder of some awards season thoughts, many of which I have included in this space before.

1) I still think that "Spotlight" is your best chance to continue Telluride's streak of hosting the year's Best Picture Oscar winner.  That streak has held each year since 2010...and save for 2009's win for "The Hurt Locker", would actually date back to 2008.  I was beginning to think that "Room" was looking like a real possibility to replace "Spotlight" as the film with the best chance to continue the string but that possibility seemed to recede this past week.  The "Streak"...

2008-"Slumdog Millionaire"
2009: The Hurt Locker" (not at TFF)
2010: "The King's Speech"
2011: "The Artist"
2012: "Argo"
2013: "12 Years a Slave"
2014: "Birdman"

2) Up until this week, I was saying that the Best Picture winner was likely to be one of four films: "Spotlight", "Room", "The Martian" and "The Revenant".  Last week's precursor news seemed to take some wind out of the sails of everything but "Spotlight" and the beneficiaries seemed to be the aforementioned "Mad Max: Fury Road" and Todd Haynes' "Carol".

3) Don't count out "Steve Jobs" as a Best Picture nomination contender.  The film has all but disappeared on the charts of the professional Oscar pundits but I feel like the four Globe nominations may suggest that, despite its box office results, there could be more strength there than a lot of people think.

4) I've said it already, but I'll say it again..."Carol" will have more nominations on Oscar morning than any other film.  Conceivably: Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, two Acting nominations-maybe one lead and one supporting or two leads-, Costumes, Production Design, Score, Hair/Makeup, Cinematography.  That's 10.  It could happen.

5) I'm still stumping for: "Son of Saul" to be nominated for Best Picture.  It's status as the front runner for Best Foreign Film feels like the only sure thing about Oscar here in the middle of December.

Also the MTFB/FAC campaigns of futility continue for Supporting Actor nominations for Jeff Daniels from "Steve Jobs" and Peter Sarsgaard from "Black Mass".

6) Since I started covering Telluride and its relation to Oscar season, the average TFF film cumulative Oscar nomination total is 27.  This year has felt like that average seemed to be good bet for this year's total.  I'm thinking the last week or so that the total might inch a little bit past the 27 but even then, we're talking 28-29 nominations all told.  I'm not feeling that this will be a 30+ nomination year...but, keep in mind...nobody knows anything.

LATE BREAKING: CRITICS' CHOICE AWARD NOMINATIONS AND ONLINE FILM CRITICS AWARDS

The Broadcast Film Critics Association has announced their nominees for Film and television achievement.  Telluride films are well represented with TFF #42 films nominated for 31 BFCA awards plus two additional nominations for TFF #41 films.

Here's the breakdown:

"Carol" (9): Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Director, Production Design, Hair/Makeup, Cinematography, Costumes, Score.

"Spotlight" (8): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Ruffalo), Supporting Actress, Ensemble, Director, Original Screenplay, Film Editing and Score.

"Room" (4): Best Picture, Actress, Young Actor, Adapted Screenplay

"Steve Jobs"(3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay

Black Mass (2): Best Actor, Hair/Makeup

Single nominations for:

"45 Years": Best Actress
"Beasts of No Nation: Best Young Actor
"Anomalisa": Best Animated Film
"Son of Saul": Best Foreign Film
"He Named Me Malala": Best Documentary

Additionally, from TFF #41, Michael Shannon was nominated for Best Supporting Actor for "99 Homes" and "The Look of Silence" was nominated for Best Documentary.

The complete list of all nominees is here:

http://deadline.com/2015/12/critics-choice-awards-nominations-2016-full-list-1201666326/

Meanwhile, the Online Film Critics Association  named Telluride films winners of six of their 13 awards.  “Mad Max: Fury Road” was named Best Picture.  They liked “Carol” a lot too.  See below:

The Online Film Critic’s awards for Telluride Film Festival films for 2015:

Best Actor: Michael Fassbender/”Steve Jobs”

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett/”Carol”

Best Supporting Actress: Rooney Mara/”Carol”

Best Documentary: “The Look of Silence” (TFF #41)

Best Original Screenplay: “Spotlight”

Best Adapted Screenplay: “Carol”

Top Ten Foreign Films includes “Rams”

 Analysis is here:

http://www.thewrap.com/online-film-critics-say-mad-max-fury-road-is-best/

http://variety.com/2015/film/awards/online-film-critics-society-winners-mad-max-1201660197/

FEINBERG'S LATEST FORECAST

The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg has updated his latest view of the Oscar race in light of last week's SAG and Golden Globes news.

Take a look at those here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-121115/

LISTEN TO ANNE, ERIC AND SASHA

Check out the latest edition of ScreenTalk with Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood, Eric Kohn/Indiewire and their special guest Sasha Stone/Awards Daily as they talk about the latest developments in the Oscar race here:

https://soundcloud.com/eric-kohn

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES:

"STEVE JOBS" AND DANNY BOYLE:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/what-danny-boyle-learned-michael-847049


"BLACK MASS" AND SCOTT COOPER

http://maltinonmovies.wolfpop.com/audio/40162/special-guest-scott-cooper-black-mass


 "BEASTS OF NO NATION" AND CARY FUKUNAGA

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/exclusive-featurette-explores-the-uncompromising-vision-of-cary-fukunagas-beasts-of-no-nation-20151209


"ANOMALISA" AND CHARLIE KAUFMAN AND DUKE JOHNSON

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-34-minute-anomalisa-interview-with-charlie-kaufman-duke-johnson-plus-new-featurettes-20151211


"CAROL" AND CATE BLANCHETT AND ROONEY MARA

http://www.thewrap.com/cate-blanchett-rooney-mara-talk-challenges-of-depicting-closeted-lesbians-in-carol/



REMINDERS:

Check back later today as I'll do some coverage on the news from the Broadcast Film Critics.

And also look for a Film Awards Clearinghouse update for the four major categories (Picture, Director, Actress and Actor) on Thursday.

Also, take a look at the 2015 addition to the second page of this blog "Selected Telluride History".  I added an attenuated version of this year's tributes, guests and films over the weekend.


Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

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