The Latest FAC for Major Oscar Categories / BAFTA Results and a Few Thoughts / WGA Rewards Spotlight and The Big Short

Good Monday everyone...welcome to another post on Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse.


THE LATEST FAC FOR MAJOR OSCAR CATEGORIES

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Big Short (1)

2) The Revenant (3)

3) Spotlight (2)

4) Mad Max: Fury Road (4)

5) The Martian (5)

6) Room (6)

7) Bridge of Spies (7)

8) Brooklyn (8)

Comment: The Revenant's and Alejandro Inarritu's DGA win has shuffled the top of the deck slightly.  Spotlight slips from #2 to #3 and The Revenant moves up to that #2 spot.   The top three films are bunched within a two point window in The FAC metric so the Best Picture race is still wide, wide open.

It will interesting to see if last night's BAFTA announcement changes the field further.  

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (1)

2) Adam McKay/The Big Short (2)

3) George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road (4)

4) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (3)

5) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (5)

Comment:  McCarthy and Miller trade places signalling a weakening among The FAC pundits in their feeling that Spotlight is waning, however slightly, in the Best Picture race. 

BEST ACTRESS

1) Brie Larson/Room (1)

2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (2)

3) Cate Blanchett/Carol (4)

4) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (3)

5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy

Comment: Larson has solidified her hold on the lead here.  Slight shift below her as Blanchett and Rampling switch the #3 and #4 positions.

BEST ACTOR

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (1)

2) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo

3) Michael Fassbender /Steve Jobs (3)

4) Matt Damon/The Martian (4)

5) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (5)

Comment: It's Leo all the way here.  The category remains static from the last FAC post.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)

2) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)

3) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)

4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)

5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (5)

Comment: Another category that's frozen with these nominees in the same positions as the last FAC.  Vikander is away out front.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1)  Sylvester Stallone/Creed (1)

2) Christian Bale/The Big Short (4)

3) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (2)

4) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (3)

5) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (5)

Comment:  Stallone is the odds on favorite.  Bale's ascendance could signal a rise in The Big Short's fortunes and the subsequent drop for Mark Ruffalo might be another signal that Spotlight might be waning.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Big Short (1)

2) Room (2)

3) The Martian (5)

4) Carol (3)

5) Brooklyn (4)

Comment: Last weekend's WGA win for The Big Short only solidifies its status as the very likely winner for this category on Oscar night.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)

2) Inside Out (2)

3) Ex Machina (3)

4) Straight Outta Compton (4)

5) Bridge of Spies (5)

Comment: Spotlight won the WGA and is the prohibitive favorite here.

BAFTA RESULTS AND A FEW THOUGHTS

Alejandro Inarritu's western revenge/survival dram The Revenant won the British version of the Oscar last night for Best Picture.  Inarritu also won as did star Leonardo DiCaprio.  The film also won honors for cinematography (Emmanuel Lubezki also won the American Society of Cinematographers Award for Best Cinematography last night...making him likely to win an unprecedented third straight Oscar) and  Best Sound.

In addition to DiCaprio, Brie Larson won Best Actress for Room, Kate Winslet was named Best Supporting Actress for Steve Jobs and Mark Rylance as Best Supporting Actor for Bridge of Spies.

Other winners last night included Screenplay wins for Spotlight and The Big Short.  Mad Max; Fury Road won four tech awards for editing, costumes, makeup and production design.

Complete results are here:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/bafta-awards-winners-2016-complete-list-british-academy-film-television-1201706004/

The Revenant's win on top of its win with the DGA most likely signals that it is the front runner for the Best Picture Oscar in less than two weeks time.  That said, analysis from Oscar pros Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Kristopher Tapley of Variety's InContention say.."not so fast".

Both analysts suggest that The Revenant is the likely favorite but they also point out that this season has been anything but predictable and that the BAFTA last year rewarded Richard Linklater's Boyhood.  So, they both say, the race may still not be over andwe could still have a surprise or two on Feb. 28.

Check out their analysis here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/bafta-awards-revenant-wins-dont-865269

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/the-revenant-key-bafta-awards-analysis-1201706167/

One final note: Telluride films won Best Actress-Brie Larson/Room, Best Supporting Actress-Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs, Original Screenplay-Spotlight and Non-English Language Film-Wild Tales.

WGA REWARDS SPOTLIGHT AND THE BIG SHORT

The Writers Guild of America named their award winners for 2015 on Saturday with TFF #42 film Spotlight named Best Original Screenplay and The Big Short winning Best Adapted Screenplay. Those wins are expected to be repeated on Oscar night in a couple of weeks.

I have linked WGA coverage here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/2016-wga-winners-complete-list-856955/item/original-screenplay-2016-wga-theatrical-852591

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-awards-writersguild-idUSKCN0VN072

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/02/13/writer-guild-awards-announcing/

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/wga-awards-winners-writers-guild-america-1201705269/

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mpgort@gmail.com OR

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The Film Awards Clearinghouse Updates Major Oscar Categories (and Shorts) / Golden Globes Results and Telluride / BAFTA Nominations and Telluride

Good Post-Golden Globes Monday Everyone.  I have Globes coverage below.  And lots of other awards season goodies in this next to last post before Oscar nominations are announced on Thursday morning.

This week will be a little different as I will post an Oscar nomination FAC on Wednesday with the compilation of all 24 Oscar categories.  Thursday's regular post will happen but will be later in the day than usual as I will put together a post that is Telluride-centric and that will take a bot of time after the nominations are announced.  It ought to be interesting and fun.

And so...to The FAC updates of major categories and a look at the short film categories as well.


For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

You may have noticed the absence of Peter Knegt from Indiewire.  He has left that website and consequently, it appears that Indiewire has doubled up on Anne Thompson's predictions.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Spotlight (1)
2) The Big Short (8)
3) The Martian (2)
4) The Revenant (3)
5) Mad Max: Fury Road (7)
6) Bridge of Spies (9)
7) Carol (6)
8) Brooklyn (5)

9) Room (4)
10) Straight Outta Compton (NR)
11) Inside Out (10)
12) Sicario (NR)

Hot: The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, Bridge of Spies, Straight Outta Compton and Sicario
Not: Brooklyn, Room, Steve Jobs, The Hateful Eight

Comment: The fluidity and uncertainty of so much of this in this year's Oscar race is underlined by the presence of nine different films listed above as either hot or not.  It's crazy to be this close to nomination day and still have this lack of clarity.

BEST DIRECTION

1)  Ridley Scott/The Martian (2)
2) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (1)
3) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (3)
4) George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road (4)
5) Todd Haynes/Carol (5)

6) Adam McKay (10)
7) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies (6)
8) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (7)
9) F. Gary Gray/Straight Outta Compton (NR)
10) Denis Villenueve/Sicario (NR)

Hot: McKay, Gray, Villenueve
Not: Tarantino and Crowley

Comment:  Adam McKay is so hot that you need to expect he gets a nomination on Thursday morning.  If that happens, who gets bumped?  The FAC suggests its Haynes.  This category seems really bunched through the top seven spots and even Abrahamson and Gray could surprise.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (2)
3) Cate Blanchett/Carol (3)
4) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (4)
5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy (5)

6) Rooney Mara/Carol (6)
7) Helen Mirren/Woman in Gold (9)
8) Lily Tomlin/Grandma (8)
9) Charlize Theron/Mad Max:Fury Road (NR)
10) Maggie Smith/The Lady in the Van (NR)

Hot: Dame Helen, Theron and Dame Maggie
Not: Silverman and Mulligan

Comment:  A "stable" category through the five nomination spots...BUT... what if Mara bumps Lawrence because the Academy isn't buying The Weinstien Company's campaign for her in Supporting?  The same question could be asked  about Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl, who sits at #11 on the Best Actress FAC.  That would/could turn both female acting categories on their heads.
What if there is enough bleed over for one or both women that one or both miss being nominated in either category (though Vikander has a real shot at getting in Supporting for Ex Machina...which is also, arguably a lead role as well)?

What are Oscars rules if one or both get enough votes for the same role to be nominated in either category?  MAYHEM!

Thursday morning could be REALLY interesting.

BEST ACTOR

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (1)
2) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo (5)
3) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs (2)
4) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (3)
5) Matt Damon/The Martian (4)

6) Johnny Depp/Black Mass (6)
7) Will Smith/Concussion (7)
8) Michael B. Jordan/Creed (NR)
9) Michael Caine/Youth (9)
10) Steve Carell/The Big Short (10)

Hot: Cranston, Jordan
Not: McKellen

Comment: It seems to me that this category might be locked with the top five.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Rooney Mara/Carol (3)
2) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
3) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (5)

6) Helen Mirren/Trumbo (6)
7) Alicia Vikander/Ex Machina (10)
8) Jane Fonda/Youth (7)
9) Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria (9)
10) Joan Allen/Room (NR)

Hot: Mara, Vikander (for Ex Machina) and Allen
Not: Vikander (for The Danish Girl) and Banks

Comment: Vikander drops here because she's picking up steam in the lead for category for the same role and the possibilities get even weirder.  What if Vikander gets enough support to be nominated for both Danish AND Ex Machina in THIS category and misses in Lead?  That could happen too.

My head hurts...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (1)
2) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (3)
3) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (2)
4) Christian Bale/The Big Short (9)
5) Michael Shannon/99 Homes (4) (TFF #41)

6) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (8)
7) Jacob Tremblay/Room (5)
8) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (6)
9) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy (7)
10) Benicio Del Toro/Sicario (NR)

Hot: Bale, Ruffalo and Del Toro
Not: Tremblay, Keaton, Dano and Hardy

Comment: Rylance is possibly your only sure bet in this category,  Elba and Stallone are very likely...but I wouldn't even call them locks at this point.


From these six major categories, if The FAC is 100% on the money, Telluride films would garner 13 nominations with another eight possibilities.

AND THE SHORT FILM CATEGORIES...

Wherein only four of my normal sources are publicly on record: Tapley, Stone, Magidson and Rogers:

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) Sanjay's Super Team 
2) We Can't Live Without the Cosmos
3) World of Tomorrow
4) Bear Story
5) If I Was God

6) Prologue
7) Love in the Time of March Madness
8) An Object at Rest
9) My Home
10) Carface


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Ave Maria
2) Shok
3) Day One
4) Stutterer
5) Everything Will Be Fine

6) Bad Hunter
7) The Free Man
8) Winter Light
9) Bis Gliech
10) Contralepo


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Claude Lanzman: Spectres of the Shoah
2) Body Team 12
3) A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
4) Last Day of Freedom
5) 50 Feet from Syria

6) Minertia
7) My Enemy, My Brother
8) Starting Point
9) The Testimony
10) Chau, Beyond the Lines

 In these "Shorts" categories, if The FAC is 100% accurate, Telluride films would nab three nominations with another two possibilities.


GOLDEN GLOBE RESULTS AND TELLURIDE

The 2016 edition of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association;s Golden Globe Awards is in the books and offered up a surprise or two throughout the evening.

Telluride #42 films were nominated in 10 of 14 feature film categories and ended the night having won four:  TFF #42 winners were Steve Jobs winning two Globes for Screenplay (Aaron Sorkin) and Best Supporting Actress-Kate Winslet.  Brie Larson won Best Actress-Drama for Room and Son of Saul won Best Foreign Film.

The big winner of the night was The Revenant which won three Globes for Best Picture-drama, Best Direction (Alejandro Inarritu) and Best Actor-Drama-Leonardo DiCaprio.

Spotlight and Carol, both with multiple Globe nominations came up empty-handed.  They had eight nominations between them.  Overall, TFF #42 (and 41) had a combined 19 nominations.

Other winners:

Best Film: Comedy-The Martian
Best Actor: Comedy-Matt Damon/The Martian (The Martian, The Revenant and Steve Jobs were the only multiple Globe winner)
Best Actress: Comedy-Jennifer Lawrence/Joy
Best Animated Film: Inside Out
Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone/Creed
Best Score: The Hateful Eight
Best Song: Writing's on the Wall/Spectre

Does this mean The Revenant may be a stronger player in the Best Picture race?  Possibly.  It will had to have gotten nominated first and Oscar nomination balloting ended Friday.  As you can see above, The FAC analysis suggests it will be nominated for Best Picture, Actor and Director.

The Directors Guild announces their nominees on Tuesday.  Perhaps that will tell us something.

BAFTA NOMINATIONS AND TELLURIDE

BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Sciences) nominations were announced on Friday and Telluride films earned 22 nominations lead by Carol, which also lead all films, along with Bridge of Spies, with the most nominations-nine.  Those nominations might indicate that both of those films are in somewhat stronger positions than previously thought in as far as The Oscar Best Picture race is concerned.  Meanwhile, Spotlight, thought to be the nominal Oscar front runner, ended up with a meager three BAFTA nominations.

The Telluride films and their BAFTA nominations are:

Carol (9): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Makeup and Costumes.

Spotlight (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Ruffalo) and Original Screenplay

Steve Jobs (3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay

Room (2): Best Actress and Adapted Screenplay

Single nominations for:

Beasts of No Nation: Best Supporting Actor
45 Years: Best British Film (weirdly, Charlotte Rampling missed out on Best Actress)
Wild Tales (TFF #41): Best Film Not in the English Language
He Named Me Malala: Best Documentary
Sherpa: Best Documentary

Complete BAFTA coverage is here:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/01/07/69th-bafta-awards-nominations-tba/#

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/01/08/bafta-awards-nominations-2016


Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

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Four More Oscar Tech Categories and The FAC / Sasha and Kris are Saying... / "Spotlight" Wins NSFC

Good First Monday of 2016 Everyone...  back to the grind... real and imagined...


FOUR MORE OSCAR TECH CATEGORIES AND THE FAC

As we edge ever closer to Oscar nomination morning, the Film Awards Clearinghouse takes a look at the positioning of the films in the only categories that I haven't enumerated as yet: Makeup/Hair, Visual Effects, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Black Mass
3) The Revenant

4) Mr. Holmes
5) The 100 Year Old Man...
6) Concussion
7) Legend


Comment:  The only possible Telluride connected nominee from the four categories that the blog examines today as "Black Mass" has a chance to be nominated here.


VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Star Wars; The Force Awakens
2) The Martian
3) Mad Max; Fury Road
4) The Walk
5) Jurassic World

6) Transformers: Age of Ultron
7) Ex Machina
8) The Revenant
9) Ant Man
10) Tomorrowland

Comment;  The top three films look solid for a nomination here.  After them, it's up for grabs for the last two spots.

SOUND MIXING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) The Martian
4) The Revenant
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Sicario
7) Spectre
8) Jurassic World
9) Straight Outta Compton
10) Creed


SOUND EDITING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) The Martian
3) The Revanant
4) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Jurassic World
7) Spectre
8) Inside Out
9) Sicario
10) In the Heart of the Sea

Comment:The top three in Mixing and the top four in Editing seem to be solid.  Oft times a musical film will nose its way into one or both of these categories, especially Mixing.  "Compton" and "Love and Mercy" might sneak in, but even that appears unlikely.


Oscar nomination announcement day is now just 10 days away and as I post the next three MTFB/FACs, I'll update the categories so that we'll have an up to date picture as we arrive at Nomination morning on Jan. 14.


I'll update  these categories on Thursday: Screenplays, Cinematography, Editing, Documentary and Foreign Language Film.



SASHA AND KRIS ARE SAYING...



Last Thursday I looked specifically at the latest Oscar predictions from The Hollywood Reporter's Oscar ace Scott Feinberg to see how Telluride films would pan out if he's 100% correct.  Today I'm posting the same process to Kristopher Tapley of Variety's InContention and Sasha Stone of Awards Daily.  Here are their latest picks for each T-ride film:

From Tapley:

"Spotlight" (7): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Keaton), Supporting Actress (McAdams), Original Screenplay, Editing and Score.

"Carol" (5) Best Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Costumes.

"Steve Jobs" (4) Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score

"Room" (3) Best Picture, Actress, Adapted Screenplay

"Black Mass" (2) Best Actor, Makeup/Hair

Singles for:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
"The Look of Silence" (TFF #41) Best Documentary

T-ride total = 26 for TFF #42 (27 if you count the TFF #41 "Look of Silence")


From Stone:

"Carol" (8) Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Score.

"Spotlight" (5) Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, Score

"Room" (4) Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay

"Steve Jobs" (3) Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay

Singles for:

"Beasts of No Nation" Supporting Actor
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
"He Named Me Malala" Best Documentary
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary (TFF #41)

T-ride total from Stone: 25 (with a 26th if you count TFF #41's "Look of Silence")

Here's the material I blogged about from Feinberg last Thursday:

 If Feinberg is right, T-ride films are nominated as follows:

"Carol" (7): Best Film, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Costume, Cinematography and Score.
"Spotlight" (6):  Best Film, Direction, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score and Film Editing.
"Room" (4): Best Film, Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design
"Steve Jobs" (3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.

All other films from Telluride would be single nominated films:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film

And from TFF #41:

"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary
"99 Homes" Best Supporting Actor.


Telluride totals would be 27 nominations (with two of those from TFF 2014).


If you combine all three of these Oscar pundits to look for the maximum Telluride bang for the buck you could see "Carol" with 10 nominations, "Spotlight" with seven (eight, if it gets three acting nominations), "Room" with five, "Steve Jobs" with four, "Black Mass" with two and TFF #41 with an additional six nominations for one offs for "Beasts", "Saul", "Viva", "45 Years", Anomalisa and "Malala" and an additional two nominations dating back to TFF #41 films.



"SPOTLIGHT" WINS NSFC

Tom McCarthy's "Spotlight" was named Best Picture of the year by the National Society of Film Critics yesterday.  Other Telluride-centric films that were winners or runners-up yesterday in the NSFC voting were:

Best Picture 1st RU: "Carol"
Best Director: Todd Haynes/ "Carol", 1st RU: Tom McCarthy/"Spotlight"
Best Actor 1st RU: Geza Rorhig/"Son of Saul", 2nd RU: Tom Courtenay/"45 Years"
Best Actress: Charlotte Rampling/"45 Years"
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Shannon/"99 Homes" (TFF #41)
Best Supporting Actress; 2nd RU Kate Winslet/"Steve Jobs"
Best Screenplay: "Spotlight", 1st RU: "Anomalisa"
Best Cinematography: "Carol"
Best Non-Fiction Film: 2nd RU "Seymour: An Introduction" (TFF #41)

Full coverage f the NSFC results are here:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/national-society-of-film-critics-awards-2016-full-list-1201670781/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/criticwire/national-society-of-film-critics-awards-2015-20160103

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/national-society-of-film-critics-gives-best-picture-to-oscar-frontrunner-spotlight-20160103

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/national-society-film-critics-2016-851756


That's all for Monday.  More updated Oscar categories will be here on Thursday...


  Contact me at:

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mpgort@gmail.com OR

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New Oscar Categories Get The FAC Treatment / Like I Said on Monday...Haneke / Oscar Matters: The Latest Fienberg Forecast

Good Thursday film fans...

Oscar nomination morning is a minuscule two weeks away...the anticipation mounts!

NEW OSCAR CATEGORIES GET THE FAC TREATMENT

As we get closer to the announcement of Oscar nominations, The FAC takes its first look at the animated feature race and a number of technical categories.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Inside Out
2) Anomalisa
3) Shaun the Sheep
4) The Good Dinosaur
5) The Peanuts Movie

6) Kahlil Gibron's The Prophet
7) Minions
8) When Marnie Was There
9) Boy and the World
10) Home

Comment:  "Inside Out" and "Anomalisa" are locks.  It'll be interesting to see if the category goes a to five nominees all of which will be honored to be nominated in a year where "Inside Out" has the Oscar in a death grip.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Danish Girl
2) Carol
3) Bridge of Spies
4) Mad Max: Fury Road
5) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

6) Cinderella
7) The Martian
8) Brooklyn
9) The Hateful Eight
10) The Revenant

Comment:  A very, very competitive category.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Hateful Eight
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) Carol
4) The Danish Girl
5) Bridge of Spies

6) Spotlight
7) Inside Out
8) Steve Jobs
9) Sicario
10) Mad Max: Fury Road

Comment: The films' scores listed in the 4-7 positions are probably in a real fight for the last two spots in the category.


BEST SONG

1) 'Til It Happens to You/The Hunting Ground
2) See You Again/Furious 7
3) Simple Song #3/Youth
4) Love Me Like You Do/50 Shades of Grey
5) Writing's on the Wall/Spectre

6) Earned It/50 Shades of Grey
7) So Long/Concussion
8) Flashlight/Pitch Perfect 2
9) Feels Like Summer/Shaun the Sheep
10) I'll See You in My Dreams/I'll See You in My Dreams (tie)
10) Cold One/Rikki and the Flash

Comment: Try on these phrases...Oscar nominees "50 Shades of Grey" and/or "Furious 7".  Looks like it could really happen.  Maybe twice for "50 Shades".


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Carol
2) The Danish Girl
3) Cinderella
4) Brooklyn
5) Mad Max: Fury Road

6) The Hateful Eight
7) The Revenant
8) The Crimson Peak
9) Suffragette
10) Trumbo

Comment: The top four spots seem relatively certain with a big scrum for the fifth nomination.

If The FAC is 100% accurate, Telluride films in these categories will earn fur nominations with another three possibilities.


LIKE I SAID ON MONDAY...HANEKE

Michael Haneke and Isabelle Huppert at Cannes for "Amour" in 2012 (photo from Sipa Press/Rex Shutterstock and The Guardian)

Last Monday's post included a segment entitled "Ten Films that Could Be Telluride Bound".  Included on that list was one film without a title and that was the percolating Michael Haneke project.  Now, almost like magic, within the last couple of days, comes details of the new film including a title: " Happy End".

Considering the timing, I would expect that the completed film would be a likely entrant for Cannes in 2017 and, consequently, TFF #44.  Here is coverage from The Guardian, Film Stage and The Playlist:

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/dec/30/michael-haneke-to-reunite-with-isabelle-huppert-for-calais-set-drama

http://thefilmstage.com/news/michael-haneke-reveals-next-film-happy-end-starring-isabelle-huppert-and-jean-louis-trintignant/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/michael-haneke-reteams-with-amour-duo-isabelle-huppert-jean-louis-trintignant-for-refugee-film-happy-end-20151230



OSCAR MATTERS: LATEST FEINBERG FORECAST

The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg has just updated his latest Oscar predictions.  The nominations announcement is now just two weeks away.  You can look at Scott's whole list here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-122915/

If Feinberg is right, T-ride films are nominated as follows:

"Carol" (7): Best Film, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Costume, Cinematography and Score.
"Spotlight" (6):  Best Film, Direction, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score and Film Editing.
"Room" (4): Best Film, Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design
"Steve Jobs" (3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.

All other films from Telluride would be single nominated films:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
 
And from TFF #41:

"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary
"99 Homes" Best Supporting Actor.


Telluride totals would be 27 nominations (with two of those from TFF 2014).


More to come on Monday...HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!

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michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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Gurus of Gold and Others Updated Oscar Forecasts / Critical Take on 2015 Gets Deeper / Lots About "Spotlight"

Good Christmas Eve and Thursday morning...


GURUS OF GOLD AND OTHERS UPDATED OSCAR FORECASTS

Move City News has an updated chart this morning for six major categories.  TFF films lay out like this in their latest tally of Oscar experts:

Best Picture:

#1 "Spotlight"
#3 "Carol"
#8 "Room"
#12 "Steve Jobs"

Best Director

#2 Tom McCarthy/"Spotlight"
#4 Todd Haynes/"Carol"
#7 Lenny Abrahamson/"Room"


Best Actress:

#1 Brie Larson/"Room"
#3 Cate Blanchett/"Carol"
#5 Charlotte Rampling/"45 Years"
#6 Carey Mulligan/"Suffragette"

Best Actor:

#3 Michael Fassbender/"Steve Jobs"
#6 Johnny Depp/"Black Mass"


Best Supporting Actress:

#1 Rooney Mara/"Carol"
#3 Kate Winslet/"Steve Jobs"
#6 Rachel McAdams/"Spotlight"

Best Supporting Actor:

#3 Idris Elba/"Beasts of No Nation"
#4 Michael Keaton/"Spotlight"
#5 Mark Ruffalo/"Spotlight"
#7 Michael Shannon/"99 Homes" (TFF #41)
#8 Jacob Tremblay/"Room"


The Gurus indicate 14 Oscar nominations for Telluride films on these six categories with another seven possibles/trade-offs.

The complete Gurus can be found here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/12/gurus-o-gold-you-better-vote-good-for-goodness-sake/

Meanwhile, The Five Star Flicks Blog has continued its project of gathering data from many Oscar prognostication sources and crunching those numbers for the Best Picture race in a different manner. Their cumulative chart has the following for BP:

#1 "Spotlight"
#4 "Room"
#6 "Carol"
#12 "Steve Jobs"
#16 "Beasts of No Nation"


That complete chart is here:

http://fivestarflicks.blogspot.com/2015/12/state-of-race-best-picture-as-of-122315.html


CRITICAL TAKE ON 2015

Metacritic continues to gather data from Critics' year end top ten lists (they're up over 160 lists so far) and here's where Telluride films rank (within their top twenty):

#2 "Carol"
#3 "Spotlight"
#8 "Son of Saul" (tie)
#8 "Anomalisa" (tie)
#10 "45 Years"
#14 "Room"
#16 "The Look of Silence" (TFF #41)


That's an incredibly impressive seven films on the cumulative top twenty from TFF.

The complete Metacritic list is here:

http://www.metacritic.com/feature/film-critics-list-the-top-10-movies-of-2015


LOTS ON "SPOTLIGHT"

Somewhat tenaciously and against the odds, "Spotlight" has continued to seem like a quiet Oscar front runner for many weeks now.  As such, it continues to be spotlighted, if you'll pardon the expression, in a number of outlets in a number of ways.  Here is a sampling of some of then latest including discussions from its producer, director, actors and musical director:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/how-open-road-ceo-tom-ortenberg-shepherded-spotlight-to-oscar-frontrunner-20151223

http://thefilmstage.com/news/morricone-talks-the-hateful-eight-thomas-mccarthy-analyzes-spotlight-45-years-tangerine-talks-and-more/

http://www.thewrap.com/spotlight-director-tom-mccarthy-talks-researching-disturbing-church-scandal-video/

http://www.thewrap.com/spotlight-star-michael-keaton-talks-actors-journalists-and-their-egos/

http://www.thewrap.com/how-mark-ruffalo-learned-to-play-an-excitable-journalist-in-spotlight-video/

http://www.thewrap.com/spotlight-star-rachel-mcadams-talks-learning-to-listen-like-a-journalist-exclusive-video/

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/12/23/interview-howard-shore-talks-composing-spotlight/


That's it for Thursday.  For all those that celebrate Christmas...I hope your tomorrow is fantastic. MTFB will return Monday with more...

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mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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Newest Numbers for Supporting and Screenplays from The FAC / Foreign Language Short List / Criticwire Weighs In

Good Monday to Everyone...and Happy Holidays...

NEWEST NUMBERS FROM SUPPORTING AND SCREENPLAYS

Here is the latest update foe the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories from The FAC.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
2) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
3) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (5)
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (7)

6) Helen Mirren/Trumbo (NR)
7) Jane Fonda/Youth (4)
8) Elizabeth Banks/Love and Mercy (6)
9) Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria (NR)
10) Alicia Vikander/Ex Machina (NR)

Hot: McAdams, Mirren, Stewart and Vikander for "Ex Machina"
Not: Fonda, Banks, Allen, Walters and Chastain.

Comment: Another category that has been turned upside down over the past three weeks despite the pundits claims that precursors and critics groups don't move the Oscar needle... they sure have changed the experts perceptions.  Mirren is the perfect example as she has never been in the top ten of the FAC and suddenly appears at #6 in the latest number crunching.  That's NOT because the Oscar predictors have changed their minds about the quality of her performance.  It's because she's popped up over the last couple of weeks with a SAG nomination and a Golden Globe nomination.

Meanwhile, Joan Allen (Room), Julie Walters (Brooklyn) and Jessica Chastain (The Martian) disappear from the top ten.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR


1) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (3)
2) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (8)
3) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (9)
4) Michael Shannon/99 Homes (NR)
5) Jacob Tremblay/Room (5)

6) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (2)
7) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy (6)
8) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (1)
9) Christian Bale/The Big Short (NR)
10) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (4)

Hot: Rylance, Stallone, Elba, Shannon and Bale
Not: Keaton, Ruffalo, Hardy, Del Toro and Keitel

Comment: Another category that illustrates in stark terms how volatile the season is and how little confidence the experts have in their grasp of the season.  When you have ten people listed in the "Hot/Not" list above, that tells you every thing you need to know about the categories fluidity.  Fully four of the five men that are now listed as the top five (and your presumptive nominees) were NOT in the top five on our last FAC check of the category.

Open Roads' play to have the entire "Spotlight" cast as "Supporting" players may have hurt both Keaton and Ruffalo who had seemed likely to both get a nomination up until the last couple of weeks. Now, neither man may get in and, ironically, Rachel McAdams, who has been regarded as the biggest stretch to be nominated from the cast might now be the film's best shot at an acting nomination.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Room (2)
2) Steve Jobs (1)
3) The Martian (4)
4) Brooklyn (3)
5) The Big Short (8)

6) Carol (7)
7) Anomalisa (6)
8) The Revenant (5)
9) Trumbo (NR)
10) Creed (NR)

Hot: The Big Short, Trumbo, Creed
Not: The Revenant, The Danish Girl, 45 Years

Comment:  The resilience of "Jobs" here and in the Best Actor and Supporting Actress categories continues to impress me.  "Jobs" also sits at #11 on last Thursday's FAC Best Picture list.  I'm still thinking it could be a wild card Best Pic nominee...

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (3)
4) Bridge of Spies (4)
5) Ex Machina (NR)

6) Joy (5)
7) Trainwreck (10)
8) Straight Outta Compton (NR)
9) Youth (6)
10) Sicario (7)

Hot: Ex Machina, Trainwreck, Compton
Not: Youth, Sicario, Love and Mercy and Son of Saul

Comment: My desire that "Son of Saul" get into the Best Picture conversation isn't helped as it drops out of the original screenplay top ten.


FOREIGN FILMS SHORT LIST

The Academy has winnowed all of the Best Foreign Language Film entrants down to nine films.  Two of those films played at TFF #42:  "Son of Saul" and "Viva" made the cut.  "Rams", which was thought to have a strong chance at being a semi-finalist.  It also played as a part of the TFF #42 lineup.

The complete list of films still alive for the Foreign Language Oscar:

"The Brand New Testament"/Belgium
""Embrace of the Serpent"/Colombia
"A War"/Denmark
"The Fencer"/Finland
"Mustang"/France
"Labyrinth of Lies"/Germany
"Son of Saul"/Hungary
"Viva"/Ireland
"Theeb"/Jordan

Coverage:


http://awardswatch.com/news/mustang-son-of-saul-the-fencer-make-foreign-language-film-oscar-shortlist/


CRITICWIRE WEIGHS IN

Criticwire/Indiewire published their collection of rankings of 200+ critics this week.  Telluride films ended up as follows on their list of the 50 best films of 2015:

#2 "Carol"
#3 "Spotlight"
#7 "Anomalisa"
#9 "The Look of Silence" (TFF #41)
#10 "Son of Saul"
#14 "45 Years"
#15 "Room"
#21 "Taxi"
#30 "Steve Jobs"
#35 "Heart of a Dog"





Find complete coverage and analysis and other lists for direction and performances here:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/critics-pick-the-best-films-and-performances-of-2015-in-indiewires-annual-poll-20151214



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Updated FAC for Oscars Four Major Categories / American Film Institute's Top Ten Films for 2015 / The Latest Gurus of Gold

Welcome to Thursday...

As promised, here is your update of four major Oscar categories:

THE UPDATED FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE/MAJOR FOUR CATEGORIES

Many of the professionals listed below will often write that precursors like the Golden Globes and SAG nominations as well as critical top tens don't really move the needle as far as Oscar voters go. And yet...as you look at these categories that are updated from their last post from about three weeks ago...the number crunching of their thinking tells a different story.

"Mad Max: Fury Road" and "Trumbo's" Bryan Cranston have jumped into serious contention precisely because of the announcement of year end accolades from the various precursors.  "Joy" has dropped like a stone after spending the past several months comfortably regarded as a serious contender in a number of categories.

"The Martian" continues to be regarded well but I have serious concerns that the main categories will accommodate it and "Mad Max".

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.



BEST PICTURE

1) Spotlight (1)
2) The Martian (3)
3) The Revenant (2)
4) Room (4)
5) Brooklyn (6)
6) Carol (10)
7) Mad Max: Fury Road (NR)
8) The Big Short (12)


9) Bridge of Spies (5)
10) Inside Out (9)
11) Steve Jobs (8)
12) The Hateful Eight (11)

Hot: Carol, Mad Max:Fury Road, The Big Short
Not: Bridge of Spies, Steve Jobs, Joy

Comment:  "Fury Road" is red hot and "Joy" is dead as can be as it dropped completely off the chart.  Not one of these experts thinks it will get a Best Picture nomination.  It's fall from grace makes me a little dizzy.  "Spotlight" nailed a perfect score from these Oscarologists.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (1)
2) Ridley Scott/The Martian (3)
3) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (2)
4) George Miller/Mad Max:Fury Road (7)
5) Todd Haynes/Carol (8)

6) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies (4)
7) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (5)
8) Quentin Tarantino/The Hateful Eight (10)
9) John Crowley/Brooklyn (NR)
10) Adam McKay/The Big Short (NR)

Hot: Miller, Haynes, Tarantino, Crowley, McKay
Not: Spielberg, Abrahamson, Boyle, Russell

Comment: The upward trajectory for Haynes and Miller reveal that they are thought to be serious Best Picture contenders as well.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (3)
3) Cate Blanchett/Carol (4)
4) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (5)
5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy (2)

6) Rooney Mara/Carol (NR)
7) Carey Mulligan/Suffragette (6)
8) Lily Tomlin/Grandma (8)
9) Helen Mirren/Woman in Gold (NR)
10) Sarah Silverman/I Smile Back (NR)

Hot: Mara, Mirren, Silverman
Not: Lawrence, Danner, Smith, Blanchett (Truth)

Comment:  Nothing better illustrates the fall of "Joy" than Jennifer Lawrence's drop to the #5 spot and fighting to stay on as a likely nominee.  She's still way out front of Rooney Mara (whose presence here indicates a potential rejection of the decision to campaign her in the Supporting category) but the drop over the last three weeks has been precipitous.

BEST ACTOR

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (1)
2) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs (2)
3) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (3)
4) Matt Damon/The Martian (5)
5) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo (NR)

6) Johnny Depp/Black Mass (4)
7) Will Smith/Concussion (7)
8) Ian McKellen/Mr. Holmes (9)
9) Michael Caine/Youth (6)
10) Steve Carell/The Big Short (10)

Hot: Cranston
Not: Depp, Caine, Hanks

Comment: Bryan Cranston's jump into contention has been stratospheric.  I still have serious reservations about Damon making the top five.

If these predictions are 100% accurate, then films/performers from Telluride will earn nine nominations in these four categories with an additional five possibilities.


I'll update the Supporting Acting and Screenplay Oscar predictions in Monday's edition of MTFB/FAC.


AMERICAN FILM INSTITUTES'S TOP TEN FILMS

The AFI announced their list of the Ten Best films of 2015 yesterday and three Telluride Film Fest films made the grade: "Carol", "Room" and "Spotlight".  Other films making the AFI Top Ten included:

"The Big Short"
"Bridge of Spies"
"Inside Out"
"Mad Max:Fury Road"
"The Martian"
"Star Wars: The Force Awakens"
"Straight Outta Compton"

Left out: "The Revenant", "Joy", "Creed", "Steve Jobs", "Black Mass" and "The Hateful Eight".

Last year the AFI list included 11 films:

"American Sniper"
"Birdman"
"Boyhood"
"Foxcatcher"
"The Imitation Game"
"Interstellar"
"Into the Woods"
"Nightcrawler"
"Selma"
"Unbroken"
"Whiplash"


I've included links to this coverage of the AFI announcement:

https://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/afi-awards-honorees-star-wars-mr-robot-1201662848/

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/12/16/avi-top-ten-2015/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/star-wars-force-awakens-lands-849517



THE LATEST GURUS OF GOLD

Movie City News was up yesterday with an updated posting for the Gurus of Gold.  Their list of Best Picture cumulative predictions has TFF films as follows:

"Spotlight" #1
"Carol" #3
"Room" #8
"Steve Jobs" #11
"Beasts of No Nation" #17

The complete Gurus update is here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/12/gurus-o-gold-what-underdogs-are-still-barking/

Additionally, Sasha Stone at Awards Daily broke down the implications of the latest from the Gurus in this post yesterday:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/12/16/at-last-a-consensus-emerges-in-the-best-picture-race/#


That'll do for now.  I'll post anew on Monday...

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