Thursday, December 17, 2015

Updated FAC for Oscars Four Major Categories / American Film Institute's Top Ten Films for 2015 / The Latest Gurus of Gold

Welcome to Thursday...

As promised, here is your update of four major Oscar categories:


Many of the professionals listed below will often write that precursors like the Golden Globes and SAG nominations as well as critical top tens don't really move the needle as far as Oscar voters go. And you look at these categories that are updated from their last post from about three weeks ago...the number crunching of their thinking tells a different story.

"Mad Max: Fury Road" and "Trumbo's" Bryan Cranston have jumped into serious contention precisely because of the announcement of year end accolades from the various precursors.  "Joy" has dropped like a stone after spending the past several months comfortably regarded as a serious contender in a number of categories.

"The Martian" continues to be regarded well but I have serious concerns that the main categories will accommodate it and "Mad Max".

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.


1) Spotlight (1)
2) The Martian (3)
3) The Revenant (2)
4) Room (4)
5) Brooklyn (6)
6) Carol (10)
7) Mad Max: Fury Road (NR)
8) The Big Short (12)

9) Bridge of Spies (5)
10) Inside Out (9)
11) Steve Jobs (8)
12) The Hateful Eight (11)

Hot: Carol, Mad Max:Fury Road, The Big Short
Not: Bridge of Spies, Steve Jobs, Joy

Comment:  "Fury Road" is red hot and "Joy" is dead as can be as it dropped completely off the chart.  Not one of these experts thinks it will get a Best Picture nomination.  It's fall from grace makes me a little dizzy.  "Spotlight" nailed a perfect score from these Oscarologists.


1) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (1)
2) Ridley Scott/The Martian (3)
3) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (2)
4) George Miller/Mad Max:Fury Road (7)
5) Todd Haynes/Carol (8)

6) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies (4)
7) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (5)
8) Quentin Tarantino/The Hateful Eight (10)
9) John Crowley/Brooklyn (NR)
10) Adam McKay/The Big Short (NR)

Hot: Miller, Haynes, Tarantino, Crowley, McKay
Not: Spielberg, Abrahamson, Boyle, Russell

Comment: The upward trajectory for Haynes and Miller reveal that they are thought to be serious Best Picture contenders as well.


1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (3)
3) Cate Blanchett/Carol (4)
4) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (5)
5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy (2)

6) Rooney Mara/Carol (NR)
7) Carey Mulligan/Suffragette (6)
8) Lily Tomlin/Grandma (8)
9) Helen Mirren/Woman in Gold (NR)
10) Sarah Silverman/I Smile Back (NR)

Hot: Mara, Mirren, Silverman
Not: Lawrence, Danner, Smith, Blanchett (Truth)

Comment:  Nothing better illustrates the fall of "Joy" than Jennifer Lawrence's drop to the #5 spot and fighting to stay on as a likely nominee.  She's still way out front of Rooney Mara (whose presence here indicates a potential rejection of the decision to campaign her in the Supporting category) but the drop over the last three weeks has been precipitous.


1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (1)
2) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs (2)
3) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (3)
4) Matt Damon/The Martian (5)
5) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo (NR)

6) Johnny Depp/Black Mass (4)
7) Will Smith/Concussion (7)
8) Ian McKellen/Mr. Holmes (9)
9) Michael Caine/Youth (6)
10) Steve Carell/The Big Short (10)

Hot: Cranston
Not: Depp, Caine, Hanks

Comment: Bryan Cranston's jump into contention has been stratospheric.  I still have serious reservations about Damon making the top five.

If these predictions are 100% accurate, then films/performers from Telluride will earn nine nominations in these four categories with an additional five possibilities.

I'll update the Supporting Acting and Screenplay Oscar predictions in Monday's edition of MTFB/FAC.


Image result for american film institute logo

The AFI announced their list of the Ten Best films of 2015 yesterday and three Telluride Film Fest films made the grade: "Carol", "Room" and "Spotlight".  Other films making the AFI Top Ten included:

"The Big Short"
"Bridge of Spies"
"Inside Out"
"Mad Max:Fury Road"
"The Martian"
"Star Wars: The Force Awakens"
"Straight Outta Compton"

Left out: "The Revenant", "Joy", "Creed", "Steve Jobs", "Black Mass" and "The Hateful Eight".

Last year the AFI list included 11 films:

"American Sniper"
"The Imitation Game"
"Into the Woods"

I've included links to this coverage of the AFI announcement:


Movie City News was up yesterday with an updated posting for the Gurus of Gold.  Their list of Best Picture cumulative predictions has TFF films as follows:

"Spotlight" #1
"Carol" #3
"Room" #8
"Steve Jobs" #11
"Beasts of No Nation" #17

The complete Gurus update is here:

Additionally, Sasha Stone at Awards Daily broke down the implications of the latest from the Gurus in this post yesterday:

That'll do for now.  I'll post anew on Monday...

Contact me at: OR OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page:

No comments: