Monday, October 31, 2016

TFF #43 Directors Talking Their Films / Oscar Biz Buzz: Tapley's Top 20 and Stone's Take on Original Screenplay

Good Monday and I hope it was a pleasant weekend for all.


As the major fall film fests have come to a conclusion and with a number of the films that played there now beginning to open, you're seeing the full court press of interviews and profiles of the key personnel for those that are getting a serious awards push.

That gives us Telluriders another opportunity to connect with the films and film makers that we fell in love with over Labor Day weekend.  It also allows those of us that become Oscar watchers to keep an eye on the films that are being positioned for those and other awards.

I have linked interviews and profiles for:

Barry Jenkins (and others) talking about Moonlight from the Toronto International Film Festival via YouTube.  The presentation runs a bit over 25 minutes.

Additionally, The Toronto Sun's Peter Howell also talked to Jenkins  prior to Moonlight's Toronto opening.

Entertainment Weekly posted  a piece this week from La La Land writer and director Damien Chazelle about the casting process that led to Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling as the leads.

The Playlist offers a retrospective on the career of Kenneth Lonergan who wrote and directed Manchester by the Sea.

Indiewire published both an article a small video featurette from Arrival director Denis Villeneuve. That can be found here.

And the New York Film Festival posted a "Director's Dialogue" with Toni Erdmann writer/director Maren Ade.



Variety/In Contention's Kristopher Tapley posted his list of the "20 Top Contenders in the Oscar Best Picture Race" over the weekend.  Films are listed with a still and a brief description.  Included on the alphabetical listing are :  Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight and Sully from TFF #43.  You can catch the complete list here.

Also, Awards Daily's Sasha Stone posted a lengthy piece on the correlation this year between Best Picture front runners and the potential nominees for Best Original Screenplay with particular focus on three films that played at Telluride:  Moonlight, La La Land and Manchester by the Sea.  Sasha's insights are found here.

There's your Monday post from MTFB/FAC.  More to come on Thursday.


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Thursday, October 27, 2016

The FAC Looks at Film Editing and Cinematography / Oscar Biz Buzz: Fences, Miss Sloane and Moonlight

Welcome to Thursday...


One of the most common refrains in Oscar season is that a Best Picture contender needs a film editing nomination to be a real player for the big prize.  Last year's winner: Spotlight, fulfilled that criteria.  A film doesn't have to win it, but it does seem to be helpful to get the Film Editing nomination.  So we're going to take our first look today at the films that the The FAC Oscar pundits think have the inside track for a nomination there as well as for Cinematography...which for the first time in three years will NOT be won by Emmanuel Lubezki (2013-Gravity, 2014-Birdman, 2015-The Revenant).

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.

Here's the first FAC for those two categories:


1) La La Land
2) Silence
3) Arrival
4) Moonlight
5) Live by Night

6) Fences
7) Jackie
8) Lion
9) Sully
10) Hacksaw Ridge

Comment:  If true when the nominations are actually announced, TFF #43 films would be three of the five nominated films in this category.


1) La La Land
2) Silence
3) Arrival
4) Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
5) Jackie

6) Live by Night
7) Rules Don't Apply
8) Hail Caesar
9) The Jungle Book
10) Cafe Society

Comment: La La Land would add another nomination here as would Arrival.



I reported here Monday that Viola Davis will be campaigning for Best Supporting Actress for her role in Fences rather than Best Actress.  That creates a completely different dynamic for both categories. The decision almost certainly opens a spot in the Best Actress categories and also crowds out someone in the Supporting category as well as making it a much more competitive race.

Indiewire's Anne Thompson takes a look at the ramifications.


We've been waiting to see the complete American Film Institute's full lineup as well as if John Madden's Miss Sloane starring Jessica Chastain would play there for some time now.  We got our answer Tuesday as The AFI folks have set the film for its World Premiere on Nov. 11.

Details of the AFI announcement are here from Variety.


Scott Feinberg talks to Oscar Best Supporting Actor contender Mahershala Ali about his role in Barry Jenkins Moonlight as well as other topics in the most recent edition of The Hollywood Reporter's Awards Chatter.

You can find the article and the link to the podcast here.

That's a wrap for Thursday.


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Monday, October 24, 2016

Many a Trailer Come Our Way / Checking in with the Stars from TFF #43 / Oscar Biz Buzz

Good Monday Space Cadets...Hope your weekend was out of this world.


Over the end of the week and into the weekend we saw a bevy of new trailers released for films that played at this year's Telluride Film Festival.  Included in the onslaught were new views of Denis Villenueve's Arrival, Pablo Larrain's Foreign Language Oscar contender Neruda and Keif Davidson, Steven Okazaki's Mifune: The Last Samurai and Richard Ladkani's The Ivory Game.

Let' start with the final Arrival trailer (the film is set for release in the U.S. on Nov. 11):

The coverage for Arrival's final trailer was vast  Here are links to that coverage from:

The trailer for Pablo Larrain's Neruda is here:

Along with coverage from 

Here's the trailer for Mifune: The Last Samurai from YouTube:

The coverage is provided by:


And finally, the trailer for The Ivory Game is here:

With trailer release coverage from"

The Playlist

and Indiewire


Lots of interviews and profiles are flooding the internet as we move into prime release territory for films that playing at TFF in 2016.  Here's a sampling focused on the emerging indie hit (more about that below) Moonlight as well as the perceived Oscar frontrunner, Damien Chazelle's La La Land:


Profiles and interviews with writer/director Barry Jenkins: from: Indiewire The Los Angeles Times and Awards Daily

Also this Indiewire interview with Naomie Harris  along with Entertainment Weekly's sit down with Mahershala Ali

And Entertainment Weekly introduces La La Land's Emma Stone and her "73 Questions" Vogue story.  Here's the video from Vogue:


The Gotham Award nominations were announced on Thursday and TFF #43 films Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight were very much represented.  Manchester was nominated for four of the awards that are presented by the Independent Film Project.  Included in Manchester's haul: Best Feature, Best Actor (Casey Affleck), Best Screenplay and Best Breakthrough Performer (Lucas Hedges).

Moonlight was right behind with nominations for Best Feature, Best Screenplay and will receive a special cast award for its ensemble.

Other Best Feature nominees were: Paterson, Certain Women and Everybody Wants Some.

The Gothams will be handed out on Nov. 28.

Here's coverage of the nomination announcement from Variety. 

Meanwhile, Awards Daily founder Sasha Stone provided this analysis of the Gotham's effect here.

Also today in Oscar Biz Buzz, Moonlight made other waves over the weekend including a ridiculous monetary haul from just four theaters.  Indiewire reports on the stunning success of Moonlight on incredibly limited release.

The latest edition of the ScreenTalk podcast featuring Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson of Indiewire also focuses, in large measure, on Moonlight's burgeoning Oscar profile.  Here's your link to the story and the podcast.

In other Oscar Biz Buzz, there have been any number of reports yesterday that Viola Davis will be campaigned for Best Supporting Actress for the Screen Actor's Guild.  Although the Academy does not have to follow suit for the Oscars, that would become the more likely scenario.  The decision will open up an almost certain slot for the Best Actress race which many regard as the most competitive acting category (and maybe the most competitive Oscar category...period).  It would also make the Best Supporting Actress category (which has been seen to a three way race between Naomie Harris/Moonlight, Michelle Williams/Manchester and Nicole Kidman/Lion) a much tougher proposition.

Stories to that effect are here from Entertainment Weekly as well as The Playlist.

That's a wrap for this Monday.  More to come on Thursday...


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Thursday, October 20, 2016

The FAC Updates Supporting Acting and Screenplay Categories / Herzog's Inferno Has a Trailer / "The Next Big Thing"? Moonlight's Barry Jenkins / Oscar Biz Buzz

Good Thursday Troupers!


Last Thursday I updated the four major categories as the New York Film Festival was drawing to a close.  That fest has concluded and it's time to update the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories and assess whether the screenings in New York shifted the landscape (they did...a bit).

Kris Tapley maybe summed it up best when he tweeted earlier this week:

Though Tapley doesn't mention the film by name, it seems pretty obvious that he's talking about Ang Lee's Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk.  And you'll see some of the effect of its NYFF reception as we go through the categories I'm updating today.  So without further dithering...

Here's the latest FAC snapshot for four major Oscar categories that I originally posted back on Sept. 29th.  

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

The number in parenthesis is the position the film held three weeks ago.

TFF #43 films are in Bold.


1) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (1)
2) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (2)
3) Nicole Kidman/Lion (3)
4)Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (6)
5) Kristen Stewart/Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (4)

6) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (5)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (NR)
8) Lupita N'yong'o/The Queen of Katwe (7)
9) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (10)
10) Felicty Jones/A Monster Calls (8)

On the Cusp: Molly Shannon/Other People
Dropping Off: Margo Martindale/The Hollars
Hot: Gerwig and Monae.
Cold: N'yong'o

Comment:  The NYFF Billy Lynn response doesn't seem to have hurt Stewart much (but wait until you get to Adapted Screenplay below).  Gerwig definitely benefits from a strong positive NYFF response to 20th Century Women.

Harris and Williams seem like locks even this early in the scheme of things.  Kidman is close to lock status as well.


1) Liam Neeson/Silence (1)
2) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (2)
3) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (6)
4) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (4)
5) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (5)

6) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (3)
7) Stephen Henderson/Fences (7)
8) Aaron Eckhardt/Bleed for This (8)
9) Peter Saarsgard/Jackie (9)
10) Steve Martin/Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (10)

On the Cusp: Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures
No Drops
Hot: Bridges
Cold: Ali

Comment: Steve Martin also not affected by Billy Lynn's NYFF response...yet.  I don't think anyone is a lock in this category just yet.  The top six look like where the nominees will come from and are tightly bunched using The FAC metric but positions 7-9 are definitely possible.


1) Fences (2)
2) Silence (3)
3) Lion (4)
4) Arrival (5)
5) Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (1)

6) Hidden Figures (6)
7) Love and Friendship (8)
8) Live by Night (10)
9) Sully (9)
10) Nocturnal Animals (7)

On the Cusp: Indignation
No Drops
Hot: ?????
Cold: Billy Lynn, Nocturnal Animals

Comment:  Here's your first solid evidence that Oscar experts are factoring in the NYFF reactions to Billy Lynn as the film's screenplay drops a precipitous four spots.  I fully expect that when check back into this category next time that Billy Lynn will have slid even further.

Fences, Silence and Lion are very, very tightly bunched.


1) Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) La La Land (2)
3) Moonlight (3)
4) 20th Century Women (6)
5) Loving (4)

6) Jackie (5)
7) Hell or High Water (7)
8) The Lobster (8)
9) Captain Fantastic (10)
10) Florence Foster Jenkins (9)

On the Cusp: Miss Sloane
No Drops
Hot: 20th Century Women
Cold: Nada

Comment: Another sign that 20th Century Women made some waves in New York evidenced by its rise in this category.

For now Manchester seems the only lock and has a sturdy lead over La La Land, which is near lock status.

If The FAC is 100% accurate then Telluride 2016 films will add the following:

Manchester by the Sea adds three nominations.
Moonlight adds two nominations with a possible third.
La La Land adds one nomination.
Arrival adds one nomination.
Sully adds a possible nomination.
Bleed for This adds a possible nomination.

If all goes according to plan, next Thursday's post will include an early look at Film Editing, Cinematography, Original Score and Original Song categories.


Werner Herzog's volcanic documentary, Into the Inferno, dropped a new trailer this week.  Here it is from YouTube:

Here's coverage of the trailer release from:


One of the hottest titles critically since Telluride has been Barry Jenkins' Moonlight.  The film has captivated film goers at every stop it has made along the way.  It could well turn into one of the two or three best reviewed films of the fall season before it's all said and done.  Currently the film has a 98 at both Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes.  

Will that translate to Oscar success?  The stories above and below seem to indicate that it probably will earn several nominations.

All of this has led Indiewire's Eric Kohn to proclaim that Jenkins is "the next big thing".  I've been telling my students the same thing since I got back from the festival.

Now, as Moonlight gets ready tom open for general audiences (it opens tomorrow) a number of outlets are doing pieces about Jenkins and the film including the Indiewire article.  Those are linked below:

The complete profile of Jenkins from Indiewire is here.

And also a profile from The Ringer.


At the start of this week we got Oscar nomination updates from two of the nine experts that I use for The FAC.  Both Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Clayton Davis of Awards Watch posted new predictions in the wake of the conclusion of the New York Film Festival.  Those very recent predictions are factored into the latest FAC listings above. 

Feinberg is currently predicting the 21 feature categories with most categories divided into Frontrunners, Major Threats, Possibilities and Long Shots.  I'm focusing on the Frontrunners and Major Possibilities here.  

According to Feinberg, La La Land would land 13 nominations and is listed as a Major Threat for two others.  The nominations would be: Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Original Screenplay, Original Score, two for Original Song, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.  The two other Major Threats are an additional Original Song possibility and also Best Costumes.  My personal count has been at 12.  I haven't been thinking about a nomination for Production Design.

Manchester by the Sea would grab six nominations: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay.  Feinberg also says it's a Major Threat for two other nominations: Film Editing and Original Score.

Moonlight would earn six nominations for Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing.  It also is a Major Threat for nominations for Cinematography and Original Score.

Sully could two nominations for Best Picture, and Best Actor and is a Major Threat for five more: Director, Adapted Screenplay, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.

Feinberg says that Telluride documentary features with the best shot at a nomination are: The Eagle Huntress, The Ivory Game and Fire at Sea.

Best chances for Best Foreign Language Film from TFF #43 are Fire at Sea and Toni Erdmann. He lists Neruda as a Major Threat.

Feinberg has Arrival on the outside looking in with no listing stronger than a "Possibility".

Feinberg's Telluride tally would be 32 nominations with an additional 12 Major Threats.

Meanwhile, Clayton Davis at Awards Watch could not have a more different take on Denis Villenueve's Arrival.

Awards Watch currently has the Oscar race predicted as follows:

La La Land with 12 nominations: Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costumes, Sound Editing and two for Best Song.  AW also suggests that another three nominations are possible: Another for Best Song as well as Original Score and Sound Mixing.

Arrival rivals La La Land in Davis' estimation with ten predicted nominations: Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.  Arrival also is listed with a "possible" nomination for Best Actress.

Manchester by the Sea would have four nominations: Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.  It's also suggested as a possible nominee for Director, Supporting Actor and Film Editing.

Moonlight would be nominated for three Oscars: Best Picture, Supproting Actor and Original Screenplay.  It has another couple of possibilities: Director and Original Screenplay.

Sully would have a single nomination for Film Editing but be a possible nominee for five other categories including Best Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

Toni Erdmann is suggested as a Best Foreign Language Film nominee as well as a possibility for Original Screenplay.

Neruda would be nominated for Best Foreign Language Film.

The Eagle Huntress would be a Best Doc nominee with Fire at Sea a possibility.

The Awards Watch Telluride tally would be 33 nominations with an additional 14 possibilities.

The complete rundown from Awards Watch can be accessed here.

That's a wrap for Thursday.  Have a great weekend!


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Monday, October 17, 2016

A Master Passes / Oscar Biz Buzz: Business Insider, Variety and Awrads Daily / Telluride Filmmakers in The NY

Welcome to the next the third Monday in October...


Pierre Etaix in The Dardennes' Le Havre-TFF #38-2011

Film aficionados from around the world paused in sadness this week as French film comedy master Pierre Etaix died Indiewire reported on Friday.  Etaix was one of Telluride's tribute recipients in 2011. Etaix won an Oscar in 1963 for his short film Happy Anniversary.  Etaix was venerated by film makers from Jerry Lewis to Woody Allen and is frequently compared to Chaplin, Keaton and Tati.

Here's the text from TFF's 2011 program about Etaix and the tribute:

Additionally, here's the Indiewire story about his passing.


As we count down the second half of October, we're beginning to finally see the plans studios have for their Oscar possibles.  We learned, for example, just this past week that 20th Century Fox has dated Hidden Figures for a limited (and therefore Oscar qualifying release) on Dec. 25th.

We also found out that Martin Scorsese has trimmed the running time for Silence , which was originally going to run over three hours, to a meager 2 hrs. 39 min.  Reportedly more than a half an hour of the original cut has disappeared.  Wow.  That's a lot of film to have been edited out.

Ang Lee's much anticipated Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk received decidedly mixed reviews at its premiere at the New York Film Festival.  A lot of Oscary types think that it's probably toast in the major categories but Awards Daily's Sasha Stone says "not so fast" reminding everyone that Lee's Life of Pi also opened to mixed responses and was discounted by Oscar pundits and ended up with 11 nominations and four wins.

In as afar as Oscar Biz Buzz that relates to Telluride films this week, I offer the following...

Business Insiders Entertainment section offered their take on what they believe are the most likely Oscar winners in several categories at the midpoint of October.  To wit:

Best Picture: La La Land.  Also in contention according to BI: Arrival, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea and Sully.

Best Director: Damien Chazelle/La La Land.  Others in the mix: Eastwood/Sully, Jenkins/Moonlight, Lonergan/Manchester, and Villenueve/Arrival

Best Actress: Emma Stone/La La Land.  Also in play from TFF #43: Amy Adams/Arrival

Best Actor: Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea.  In the running: Ryan Gosling/La La Land, Tom Hanks/Sully

Supporting Actress: Naomie Harris/Moonlight.  Also in play: Michelle Williams/Manchester

Supporting Actor: Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals.  TFFers: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight

Original Screenplay: Hell or High Water.  TFF #43 peeps: Chazelle/La La Land, Jenkins and 
McCraney/Moonlight and Lonergan/Manchester 

Adapted Screenplay: Lion.  BI lists no TFF candidates for Adapted Screenplay although I think they're overlooking Eric Heisserer fro Arrival.

Animated Feature: Zootopia.  Nada from TFF.

Cinematography: Billy Lynn.  TFF possibles; La La Land, Moonlight, Arrival

Documentary Feature: OJ: Made in America.  Telluride docs in the mix: Into the Inferno and The Eagle Huntress

Take a look at the entire article here.

Also in the Oscar Biz Buzz today...Variety's Guy Lodge takes an impressive deep look at the possible players for Best Foreign Language Film.  He does make mention of the three TFF #43 films that have the best shot at making the final five: Toni Erdmann, Neruda and Fire at Sea.  Check Lodge's assessment here.

And, as she always does, Sasha Stone at Awards Daily put up her latest Oscar assessment of Friday. Her focus this week was on the Best Actor race.  Look at Sasha's latest Oscar musings here.



I have appended a couple of interviews that have occurred as a result of TFF #43 films that have played at the New York Film Festival over the past two weeks.  Two form Moonlight's writer/director Barry Jenkins and another from Manchester by the Sea writer/director Kenneth Lonergan;

Here's your look at the Mary Kate O'Toole interview of Barry Jenkins.  And another from New York featuring Jenkins with Nicholas Kemp.

And the interview with Lonergan by O'Toole.

That'll be a wrap for this Monday.  Return to MTFB/FAC on Thursday for more.

And contact me via:


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Thursday, October 13, 2016

The FAC Update for Major Oscar Categories / Foreign Language Films Reach Record / Tapley Assesses the Best Actress Race

Good Thursday friends...


I posted the first set of Film Awards Clearinghouse predictions for the four most major Oscar categories three weeks ago.  Now, 21 days later and with the New York Film Festival winding down, I thought it would be good to update where the race seems to be.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

The number in parenthesis is the position the film held three weeks ago.

TFF #43 films are in Bold.


1) La La Land (1)
2) Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (2)
3) Manchester by the Sea (3)
4) Fences (5)
5) Moonlight (8)
6) Silence (4)
7) Lion (6)
8) Jackie (10)
9) Arrival (9)
10) Loving (9)
11) Sully (11)
12) 20th Century Women (NR)

Dropping Out: Hidden Figures
Hot: Moonlight, Jackie, 20th Century Women
Not: Silence, Loving
Comment: Barry Jenkins' Moonlight is the biggest mover of any film in either direction.  If the nominations were announced today, it has moved from "barely probable" to a much more solid position.  La La Land has actually solidified its grasp of the top spot.  Call the top eight films "likely" nominees with the 9-12 spots as possibles.


1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)
2) Ang Lee/Billy Lynn (2)
3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester (4)
4) Martin Scorsese/Silence (3)
5) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (5)

6) Pablo Larrain/Jackie (10)
7) Denzel Washington/Fences (6)
8) Denis Villenueve/Arrival (8)
9) Garth Davis/Lion (9)
10) Jeff Nichols/Loving (7)

Hot: Larrain
Not: Nichols
Comment:  No switch outs among the top ten but a big charge for Pablo Larrain.  Larrain could also be a nominee for Best Foreign Language Film for Neruda and I don't think that has ever happened in Oscar history (see below)


1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (3)
3) Viola Davis/Fences (2)
4) Annette Bening/20th Century Women (6)
5) Ruth Negga/Loving (4)

6) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (5)
7) Amy Adams/Arrival (7)
8) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (8)
9) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (9)
10) Amy Adams/Nocturnal Animals (NR)

Dropping Out: Emily Blunt/The Girl on the Train
Hot: Bening
Not: Blunt
Comment:  Still thought to be the toughest category.  Viola Davis continues to be rumored as a possible candidate for Supporting Actress instead of lead.


1) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) Denzel Washington/Fences
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (3)
4) Tom Hanks/Sully (5)
5) Joel Edgerton/Loving (4)

6) Dev Patel/Lion (7)
7) Andrew Garfield/Silence (6)
8) Michael Keaton/The Founder (8)
9) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (NR)
10) (Tie) Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals (NR) and
Ben Affleck/Live by Night (NR)

Dropping Out: Gordon-Levitt/Snowden and Alwyn/Billy Lynn
Hot: Gyllenhaal and B. Affleck as well as Mortensen
Not: See the "dropping Out" list above.
Comment:  This looks like a real race between Casey and Denzel.  It's the tightest bunching of the top two from any of these categories.

Should these predictions hold for TFF #43 films...

La La Land would be nominated in all four categories.
Manchester by the Sea in three.
Moonlight in two.
Sully in one.

Other possibles: Arrival for three and Sully for an additional nomination.

Also, not to put too fine a point on it, TFF #43 films would win in all four categories.


A record number of 85 films have been submitted for Oscar consideration for the Foreign Language category.  Included in the submissions were these Telluride 2016 films:

Toni Erdmann/Germany
Fire at Sea/Italy

Other major players include films that I thought, at least at some point, might play Telluride:

It's Only the End of the World/Canada
The Salesman/Iran
Sand Storm/Israel
Ma' Rosa/Philippines
My Life as a Zucchini/Switzerland

Here's coverage of the 85 film list from Variety, Awards Daily, The Hollywood Reporter, and The Playlist.


Variety awards co-editor and founder of InContention, Kristopher Tapley posted a meditation this week on this year's Best Actress Oscar race.  as I mentioned above, it's regarded as one of the toughest races in years.  As you can see above, there are a number of TFF #43 actresses in the conversation: Stone and Adams.  Isabelle Huppert is also mentioned for Things to Come in addition to Elle and we shouldn't rule out Rooney Mara for Una.

Take a look at Tapley's analysis here.

That's a wrap for this Thursday.  More to come on Monday.  Have a fantastic weekend everyone.


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Monday, October 10, 2016

Things to Come is Coming (and has a trailer) / Talking Telluride Films

Good Monday people...


Telluride watchers were rewarded this past week with a new trailer for Mia Hansen-Love's Things to Come starring past T-ride tribute recipient Isabelle Huppert (and it IS the year of Huppert with this performance plus Elle and others).  Things to Come was very well respected by MTFB's Pros as it  was pegged at the #3 spot with a solid 4.20 rating.  The film currently has an 88 Metacritic score and 100% on Rotten Tomatoes (with 36 critics weighing in).

Here's the new trailer (with English subtitles) from Sundance Selects via YouTube:

Things to Come opens in the United States on Dec. 2nd.

I have also linked coverage of the trailer release from Indiewire .


Kristopher Tapley's Playback Podcast had actor Aaron Eckhardt as his guest this last week.  Eckhardt is getting notice for his roles both in Sully and Bleed for This.  Eckhardt could be in the Best Supporting Actor conversation for both of those roles, though his turn in Bleed for This seems to be getting the most attention.

Here's the link to the Playback podcast.

Additionally, The Hollywood Reporter published a multi-actress interview with German actresses. Two of those are Sandra Huller from Toni Erdmann and Paula Beer from Frantz both of which were part of the TFF #$3 program.

That interview is here.

And, Indiewire's weekly Screen Talk podcast featuring Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson (both of whom serve as MTFB pors for rating films each year at TFF).  This week the duo talk Birth of a Nation and 20th Century Women.

The Screentalk podcast is here.

That's a wrap for Monday.  More to come on Thursday...including a new Film Awards Clearinghouse update.


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Friday, October 7, 2016

Moonlight's Naomie Harris in the Spotlight / The Gold Derby's Latest Look at the Oscar Race / Toni Erdmann's Got a New Trailer

Good Thursday morning everyone.


Variety' Kristopher Tapley interviews actress Naomie Harris.  The Best Supporting Actress Oscar candidate talks about her role in Barry Jenkins' critical hit, Moonlight.  Harris is, at least for the moment, among the top two or three potential nominees for that category.

Check out  her interview in Variety.


New odds based on the best experts from Oscar punditry were released earlier this week from The Gold Derby.  The latest assessment has five TFF #43 films sitting in the top ten possible Best Picture nominees.  They are as follows:

La La Land (#1 at 5 to 1), Manchester by the Sea (#2 at 7 to 1), Moonlight (#6 at 12 to 1). Arrival (#9 at 25 to 1) and Sully (#10 at 40 to 1).

Click here to see the latest complete  Oscar odds from The Gold Derby.


Telluride and Cannes hit Toni Erdmann has a new trailer as we get closer to its release date.  The film is widely expected to be an Oscar Foreign Language Film nominee.

Check these articles for trailer details and links to the trailer itself.

That's going to do it for a truncated Thursday post.  More on Monday!


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Monday, October 3, 2016

New York by Way of Telluride / Maudie Has a Home / Screen Talk

Good Monday ladies and germs...


The New York Film Festival opened over the weekend with Ava DuVernay's documentary 13th as the opening night film.  NYFF will run through Oct. 16th and will double up on a number of films that played at TFF #43 including: Fire at Sea, Graduation, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Neruda. Things to Come and Toni Erdmann among their Main Slate presentations.  Here is the complete NYFF Main Slate lineup.

Additionally, in its Retrospective section you will find Bertrand Tavernier's Journey Through French Cinema which also played TFF #43.
Tavernier and Journey Through French Cinema was recently profiled in this piece from Variety.

Other Telluride 2016 selections playing in NYFF are included in its Spotlight on Documentary section. Included there from Telluride are: The B-Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography, Bright Lights; Starring Debbie Reynolds and Carrie Fisher and I Called Him Morgan.


 A small film at Telluride that gained some notoriety and  a bit of buzz for Sally Hawkins' performance was Aisling Walsh's Maudie about real life artist Maud Walsh.  As a matter of fact, TFF filmgoers rated the film in MTFB's People's Telluride ratings at a very respectable 4.29 (out of 5) and it finished as the third highest rated film of this year's fest only trailing current Oscar buzzy films La La Land and Moonlight.

The film played T-ride without having been picked up for domestic distribution but that changed over the weekend as Sony Pictures Classics announced that they had grabbed the rights to the film.

Here's coverage of the acquisition from Variety  The Hollywood Reporter and The Wrap,

There's no word yet on whether SPC is planning to release the film this year but there is plenty of speculation that they might to get Hawkins into the conversation for the Best Actress Oscar. However, that field is crowded this year.


As the New York Fest gets underway, Indiewire's Anne Thompson and Eric Kohn take aim at the films playing there in the context of the Oscar race with a special focus in this week's podcast on Oscar and film diversity.  Figuring into their conversation is Barry Jenkin's Telluride selection Moonlight.  Check out the latest version of ScreenTalk here.

That'll be a wrap for Monday.  More on Thursday!


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