The FAC Updates the Oscar Acting Races / Producers Guild Nominees Feature TFF #43 / BAFTA Loves La La Land and Arrival

Good Thursday...if the country is still here...

THE FAC UPDATES THE OSCAR ACTING RACES

The FAC last updated the four acting race 3-4 weeks ago and some of the ground has shifted in the lead categories.  The supporting categories have remained largely the same.  The largest influences in the last month have been the Golden Globes and the BAFTA announcement of nominees (see below). Those two events within the past week have moved some people around.  Here's the latest, up-to-date look at the acting races with a mere dozen days left until Oscar announces.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Amy Adams/Arrival (6)
4) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (5)
5) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (7)

6) Anette Bening/20th Century Women (3)
7) Ruth Negga/Loving (4)
8) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (8)
9) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (9)
10) Emily Blunt/The Girl on the Train (NR)

Hot: Adams, Streep, Blunt
Not: Bening, Negga and Marion Cotillard who dropped off the list.
On the Cusp: Kate Beckinsale/Love and Friendship
Comment: Adams gets a boost from BAFTA.  Streep gets a boost from her GG Lifetime acceptance speech.  The race at the top between Stone and Portman is incredibly close.

BEST ACTOR

1) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) Denzel Washington/Fences (2)
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (4)
4) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (6)
5) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (8)

6) Tom Hanks/Sully (3)
7) Joel Edgerton/Loving (5)
8) Andrew Garfield/Silence (9)
9) Warren Beatty/Rules Don't Apply (7)
10) Michael Keaton/The Founder (NR)

Hot: Garfield (Hacksaw), Mortensen and Keaton
Not: Hanks, Edgerton and Adam Driver who dropped from the list.
On the Cusp: Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals
Comment: Mortensen continues to march up the list with his SAG, BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations showing that he has serious momentum.  Andrew Garfield also continues to rise.  The race still seems to be between Affleck and Washington for the win.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Fences (1)
2) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (2)
3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (3)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (4)
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (5)

6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (6)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (7)
8) Molly Shannon/Other People (8)
9) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (9)
10) (TIE) Felicity Jones (10) and Lily Gladstone/Certain Women (NR)

On the Cusp: Haley Squires/I, Daniel Blake
Comment: An incredibly stable category that will be won by Viola Davis.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2)
3) Dev Patel/Lion (3)
4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (5)

6) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (6)
7) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (8)
8) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (7)
9) Aaron Taylor-Johnson/Nocturnal Animals (NR)
10) Issey Ogata/Silence (9)

Hot: Taylor-Johnson has exploded into the conversation just this week with his stunning Golden Globe win and his BAFTA nomination.
Not: Aaron Eckhart
On the Cusp: Stephen Henderson/Fences



PRODUCERS GUILD NOMINEES FEATURE TFF #43

One of the most well regarded precursors of probable Oscar Best Picture nominees is the Producers Guild of America (PGA).  The PGA named their list of ten feature film nominees on Tuesday and it included four films that played at Telluride last September.

Those named were: Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and La La Land.  The nomination for Arrival is being perceived as a strong sign that it will likely be among the films nominated for Best Picture when the Oscar nominations are announced on Jan. 24.  La La Land, Manchester and Moonlight have been considered locks for some time and the PGA accolade just added to that view.

Other films named by the PGA were: Deadpool, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures and Lion.

Deadpool was a real surprise to the otherwise expected list of films.  Left off: Sully, Silence and Loving.

The PGA also named The Eagle Huntress, which also played TFF #43 among the five Best Documentaries.

Coverage and analysis of the PGA nominations is here from:

Indiewire

Awards Daily

The Playlist

The Film Experience


BAFTA LOVES LA LAND AND ARRIVAL

Damien Chazelle's La La Land led all films in the number of nominations it received from the British Academy of Film and Television Artists on Tuesday with 11 nods.  Denis Villenueve's Arrival and Tom Ford's Nocturnal Animals followed in second place with nine nominations apiece.

Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea had six nominations while Barry Jenkins Moonlight was only mentioned four times.

Here are the respective nominations for each:

La La Land: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actor, Actress, Original Music, Cinematography, Editing. Production Design, Costume, Sound

Arrival: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Actress, Original Music, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Visual Effects

Manchester: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing

Moonlight: Picture, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress

Other notes: Toni Erdmann was nominated for Best Film not in the English Language, as was TFF #42 film Son of Saul.  The Eagle Huntress was nominated for Best Documentary and Manchester by the Sea's Lucas Hedges was nominated for the Rising Star award.

Complete BAFTA nominations and analysis is here from:

Indiewire

The Playlist

The Hollywood Reporter


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The FAC Assesses Support / Shortlists / Berlin 2017 Begins Revealing

Good Monday everyone and welcome to Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Awards Clearinghouse.  I hope everyone enjoyed and survived their weekend.

THE FAC ASSESSES SUPPORT

Supporting Acting categories that is.  The last FAC look at the Supporting races was a month ago (Nov. 17) and a lot has changed since then on the men's side.  The women's side is remarkably stable. Let's take a look at the latest assessment...

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The person's previous position follows its title in parentheses.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Fences (1)
2) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (3)
3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (2)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (4)
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (6)

6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (5)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (8)
8) Molly Shannon/Other People (10)
9) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (7)
10) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls (9)

Hot: Shannon
Not: Mirren
On the Cusp: Lily Gladstone/Certain Women
Comment:  As I wrote above, a very stable category over the past month with no additions pr deletions from the top ten and only minor movement among them.  Viola Davis is clearly the prohibitive favorite.  It increasingly seems that the only person with a chance to pull the upset is Michelle Williams who has taken a number of critic's prizes in the category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2)
3) Dev Patel/Lion (3)
4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (6)

6) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (NR)
7) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (7)
8) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (NR)
9) Issei Ogata/Silence (NR)
10) Aaron Eckhart/Bleed for This (8)

Hot: Foster, Costner and Ogata who jump into the top ten for the first time this season.
Not: Eckhart, and Stephen Henderson, Liam Neeson and Peter Saarsgard who dropped out of the top ten over the past month.
On the Cusp; Ralph Fiennes/A Bigger Splash
Comment: Ali has become a juggernaut of sorts as he has won critic's prize after critic's prize for his work in Moonlight.  He's not as prohibitive a favorite as Davis is among the women but he's getting there.

Thursday...a look at the screenplay categories and we'll measure the effect of Moonlight and Loving being moved from the Original to the Adapted category.


SHORTLISTS



The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences narrowed a number of categories this past week and those decisions had immediate ramifications for films that played at Telluride in September.

For example, the Foreign Language field was pared down to nine films:

Australia: Tanna
Canada: It's Only the End of the World
Denmark: Land of Mine
Germany: Toni Erdmann
Iran: The Salesman
Norway: The King's Choice
Russia: Paradise
Sweden: A Man Called Ove
Switzerland: My Life as a Zucchini

The field includes only one T-ride title-and possibly the ultimate favorite for the trophy-Toni Erdmann.  Left off were both Neruda and Fire at Sea which played TFF #43 and were thought to be serious players for a FLF Oscar nomination.  The final five nominees will be announced Jan. 24th.

Coverage of the shortlist announcement is here from:

Awards Daily

Gold Derby

Indiewire

Deadline

Awards Watch

Also, The Academy pared down the list of films still eligible for the Visual Effects nomination and Telluride still has a player in that race as Denis Villenueve's Arrival was named one of the ten films still under consideration.  Having a Telluride film in contention for the Visual Effects Oscar is a rare but not unheard of occurrence (Gravity was nominated and won in 2013).

Entertainment Weekly has the story which includes all of the films still alive in addition to Arrival.

Additionally, The Oscar Documentary shortlist was announced last week.  Among the 15 films making the shortlist were  a number that screened at TFF #43.  The Eagle Huntress, The Ivory Game and Fire at Sea made the list that will be whittled to five films on Jan. 24th.

The New York Times  has coverage here of the announcement.


BERLIN 2017 BEGINS REVEALING

We heard this week a few of the titles that will debut at the Berlin International Film Festival which runs Feb. 9-19, 2017.

Here's why that matters to readers of this space.  You can make a safe bet that a couple of Berlin titles make their way to Telluride in nine months.  Last year, for example, Mia Hansen-Love's Things to Come and Gianfranco's Fire at Sea both premiered at Berlin and then made the trip to the San Juans. In 2015 Taxi and 45 Years did the same thing.  So, we can cast a glance at the few announced films from this week and pick out some films that make the most sense for a Telluride play and there are a few that have some characteristics (i.e. directors that have had films play TFF in the past) that make them prime suspects:

The Party/Sally Potter (TFF 2012- Ginger and Rosa)
Spoor/Angnieska Holland (TFF 2013-Burning Bush, TFF 2011-In Darkness)
The Other Side of Hope/Aki Kaurismaki (TFF 2011-Le Havre)
A Fantastic Woman/Sebastian Lelio (TFF 2013-Gloria)

Coverage of the Berlin reveals is here from:

Variety

The Playlist

The Film Stage


That's Monday's post.  Come back for more on Thursday.


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SAG Acting Awards Nominations are 40% Telluride / Oscar Changes the Lay of the Land / Norman Makes an Appearance

Good Thursday film fans...

SAG AWARDS NOMINATIONS ARE 40% TELLURIDE

The Screen Actors Guild announced their nominees for acting excellence for 2016 yesterday morning.  Actors from TFF #43 films were named in 10 of the 25 slots.  SAG nominates the traditional Actresses and Actors in Lead and Supporting roles in addition to their Ensemble nomination and stunt cast nominations.

Here's what went down vis-a-vis Telluride among those nominations yesterday.

Manchester by the Sea-4: Ensemble, Casey Affleck/Male Lead, Michelle Williams/Female Supporting, Lucas Hedges/Male Supporting.

Moonlight-3: Ensemble, Naomie Harris/Female Supporting, Mahershala Ali/Male Supporting

La La Land-2: Emma Stone/Female Lead, Ryan Gosling/Male Lead

Arrival: Amy Adams/Female Lead.

Complete nominations:

Ensemble: Captain Fantastic, Fences, Hidden Figures, Manchester, Moonlight

Female Lead: Amy Adams/Arrival, Emily Blunt/Girl on the Train, Natalie Portman/Jackie, Emma Stone/La La Land and Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins

Male Lead: Casey Affleck/Manchester, Ryan Gosling/La La, Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge, Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic, Denzel Washington/Fences

Female Supporting: Viola Davis/Fences, Naomie Harris/Moonlight, Nicole Kidman/Lion, Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures and Michelle Williams/Manchester

Male Supporting: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight, Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water, Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins, Lucas Hedges/Manchester, Dev Patel/Lion

Thoughts:  It seems to me that Hidden Figures and Fences pick up some heat for a Best Picture nomination and that 20th Century Women and Loving are losing steam.  I think her nomination is terrific news for Amy Adams.  Meanwhile, Tom Hanks campaign for Sully looks like it's in trouble.


Category by category:

Ensemble: The inclusion of Captain Fantastic was a bit of a stunner.  La La Land's exclusion doesn't seem to me to be that problematic.  It's not an ensemble piece so I don't think even calling it a snub would be accurate but a number of the big time Oscar pros think that it IS a deal.  Their point being that its been over 20 years since a Best Picture winner emerged without a SAG ensemble nomination.

Best Actress looks like the category where the most weirdness occurred.  As of last Monday's FAC post only 2 of the 5 "probable" Best Actress Oscar nominees made the SAG list yesterday: Stone and Portman.  Adams was listed at #6 and Streep #7 last week and Emily Blunt was nowhere to be found. Not included on the SAG list but on the latest FAC are Ruth Negga/Loving (#4), Anette Bening/20th Century Women (#3) and Emily Blunt/Girl-Train who had dropped out of The FAC top ten.

Best Actor: Kind of a bit of a surprise that Mortensen is a SAG nominee.  He edges out Joel Edgerton who I had as the #5 guy in the latest FAC.

Best Supporting Actress: #6 on the FAC Octavia Spencer is in for #5 Greta Gerwig.

Best Supporting Actor: #6 Lucas Hedges is in for the FAC's #5 Liam Neeson.

The SAG is the first of the guilds to weigh in with other major guilds still to come: Producers, Directors and Writers.

I'll be interested to see if Wednesday's announcement moves the needle for some Oscarologists in the next few days.

The next big precursors isn't until the Writers Guild nominations on Jan. 4.  The editors Guild announces their nominations the day before.

Here's the complete list of nominees for film and television from SAG-AFTRA.

Additionally, here's analysis from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily.


OSCAR CHANGES THE LAY OF THE LAND

In the space of the three days since MTFB/FAC's last post, a couple of Oscar racers got some big changes as a result of determinations made concerning eligibility.

AMPAS has determined that both Moonlight and Loving, which have been thought to be competing in the Original Screenplay category will. in fact by relegated to the Adapted category.  That probably makes Moonlight the favorite for that trophy on Oscar night.

Coverage of the switch of categories is here from:

The Los Angeles Times

Indiewire

Entertainment Weekly


Meanwhile, as seems to happen every year, there were some surprise decisions about Original Scores and there eligibility including the decision that Arrival's score is not eligible for Oscar consideration nor is the score from Manchester by the Sea.

Here's reportage from Variety , Indiewire and Entertainment Weekly.


NORMAN MAKES AN APPEARANCE

I saw three films at TFF #43 that have really flying under the radar since Labor Day:  Una (still without U.S. distribution), Wakefield and Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer.

Now, the Richard Gere starrer (Norman) looks like its peeking its head out as we saw the arrival yesterday of a teaser trailer for the film.

You'll find the teaser as well as coverage of the release for the film from Sony Pictures Classics in these dispatches from The Playlist as well as this story from my friend Alex Billington at FirstShowing.net



That'll be a wrap for this second full week of December.  Next Monday's post will include an update of the Supporting Acting categories.

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Independent Spirit Awards Reward TFF #43 Films / Focus on TFF #43 Performers / Oscar Biz Buzz

Happy Turkey Mastication Day!  Welcome to Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Awards Clearinghouse.


INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS NOMINATIONS REWARD TFF #43 FILMS

The Film Independent Spirit Nominations were announced on Tuesday with two TFF #43 titles getting prominent attention.  Barry Jenkins Moonlight and Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea had a ton of nominations (six and five respectively).  Moonlight co-lead all films tying Andrea Arnold's American Honey with the most nominations.

Moonlight was nominated for six Spirits: Best Feature, Direction, Screenplay, Cinematography Editing and the Robert Altman Award.
Manchester was nominated for five Spirits: Feature, Screenplay, Best Actor (Casey Affleck), Supporting Male (Lucas Hedges) and Editing.

The only other mention for TFF #43 films was for Best International Film for Toni Erdmann.

Surprises/snubs included the lack of any individual acting nomination for Moonlight and no Supporting Female nom for Manchester's Michelle Williams.

Additionally, it should be noted that perceived Oscar front runner La La Land was not eligible for any Spirit nominations.

I have linked coverage below that breaks down the nominees,  analyzes the Oscar ramifications from these nominations and takes a deeper look at the perceived stunners.  Here are those links:


Nomination Coverage:

coverage from Indiewire

coverage from Variety

coverage from The Wrap


Oscar ramifications:


Sasha Stone of Awards Daily

Anne Thompson from Indiewire


Nomination analysis...surprises and snubs

Ramin Setoodeh of Variety



FOCUS ON TFF #43 PERFORMERS

As we move deeper into awards season and the release schedule for the films that are thought to be in play, we find ourselves able to access any number of stories, interviews and profiles of the actors from those films.  Within the last week we saw the posting of The Hollywood Reporter's annual Actresses Roundtable which features, among others, Emma Stone/La La Land, Amy Adams/Arrival and Naomie Harris/Moonlight from TFF #43 films.  That roundtable is here.

Additionally, Variety profiles actor Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea and focuses on how he came to play the role that has him in the thick of the discussion for Best Actor this year.  That Variety piece is here.

Finally (at least for this MTFB/FAC post) Indiewire talked to Moonlight's Naomie Harris who is also widely thought to be a leading candidate for an Oscar nomination for Best Supporting Actress. That Indiewire profile is here.


OSCAR BIZ BUZZ

Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter has updated his predictions for Oscar nominations.

Here's what he thinks will happen on nomination announcement morning:

La La Land gets 13 nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Original Score, two nominations for Original Song, Production Design, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.

Moonlight gets six nominations: Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing.

Manchester by the Sea gets six nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay.

According to Feinberg, TFF #43's other possible Oscar draw-Arrival-won't get any nominations. Feinberg mentions the film in eight categories but never lists it above the level of "major threat".

Here's the link to Feinberg's  complete predictions.

Meanwhile, Deadline's Pete Hammond has examined the aftermath of  the fall film festival season. Hammond offers takes on a number of films including Arrival. Moonlight, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Sully.

Hammond's Deadline evaluation can be found here.


That's all for Turkey Day...more on Monday.

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FAC Update: The Acting Races in November / Stone, Gosling and the Musicof La La Land / Arrival Scene on the Cutting Room Floor

Welcome to Thursday.  Thanksgiving in one week...


FAC UPDATE: THE ACTING RACES IN NOVEMBER

It's been about a month since The Film Awards Clearinghouse (FAC) portion of this blog took a look at where the Oscar acting races are so I felt like it was update time.  Since those October predictions Viola Davis/Fences and Dev Patel/Lion have both moved from the lead categories into supporting and both changes have made a significant difference across these categories.  Additionally, the fall out from the reactions to Birth of a Nation and Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk have essentially removed those films and their casts from serious Oscar consideration...at least as far as the experts are concerned.

Here's the latest FAC for Best Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor.

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The film's previous position follows its title in parenthesis.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (2)
3) Annette Bening/20th Century Women (4)
4) Ruth Negga/Loving (5)
5) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins (6)

6) Amy Adams/Arrival (7)
7) Isabelle Huppert/Elle (8)
8) Jessica Chastain/Miss Sloane (9)
9) Taraji P. Henson/Hidden Figures (NR)
10) Marion Cotillard/Allied (NR)

Hot: Henson and Cotillard
Cold: Amy Adams for Nocturnal Animals
On the Cusp: Jennifer Lawrence/Passengers
Comment:  Viola Davis was at the #3 spot last time we did this and her move to supporting has essentially meant that everyone moved up a spot.  If I were to quibble with anything at this point, it might be that I have a feeling...for the moment...that Adams gets in and Streep doesn't.  The FAC metric between them for the five and six spots is very tight.


BEST ACTOR

1) Denzel Washington/Fences (2)
2) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (1)
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (3)
4) Tom Hanks/Sully (4)
5) Joel Edgerton/Loving (5)

6) Warren Beatty/Rules Don't Apply (NR)
7) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge (NR)
8) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (9)
9) Andrew Garfield/Silence (7)
10) Matthew McConnaughey/Gold (NR)

Hot: Beatty, Garfiled (for Hacksaw) and McConnaughey.
Not: Ben Affleck (Live by Night), Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals
On the Cusp: Michael Keaton/The Founder
Comment:  Releases of Rules Don't Apply and Hacksaw Ridge massively boosted both Warren Beatty and Andrew Garfield in the Best Actor conversation.  It will be interesting of that boost takes hold over the next month or so.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Fences (NR)
2) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (1)
3) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (2)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (3)
5) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (4)

6) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (6)
7) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (9)
8) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (7)
9) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls (10)
10) Molly Shannon/Other People (NR)

Hot: Davis, of course, who became the instant favorite once the decision was made to campaign her here rather than as a lead.  Also Mirren and Shannon.
Not: Kristen Stewart for Billy Lynn who has completely disappeared from the chart.
On the Cusp: Lupita N'yong'o (Queen of Katwe)
Comment: It's Viola and then the "just an honor to be nominated" crew at least for the moment.  What was set to be a very competitive race probably isn't now.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (6)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (3)
3) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (2)
4) Dev Patel/Lion (NR)
5) Liam Neeson/Silence (1)

6) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (4)
7) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (5)
8) Aaron Eckhardt/Bleed for This (8)
9) Peter Saarsgard/Jackie (9)
10) Stephen Henderson/Fences (7)

Hot: Patel and Ali
Not: Neeson, Hedges, Henderson and Steve Martin (Billy Lynn) who drops completely off the list
On the Cusp: Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures
Comment: Dev Patel's move to Supporting has gotten a big response...though not Viola Davis-level. Liam Neeson appears to be suffering from word that his role in Silence is very small.


From the four acting categories, if The FAC is 100% accurate then TFF #43 films would earn seven nominations with another three possibilities.


STONE, GOSLING AND THE MUSIC OF LA LA LAND

Variety's Jenelle Riley sat down with La La Land stars Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling a couple of months ago in the midst of the Toronto International Film Festival for an interview that ran just this week.  The lengthy piece also focuses on the music for the film and also includes comments from writer/director Damien Chazelle.  You can find that story here.


ARRIVAL SCENE ON THE CUTTING ROOM FLOOR

Cinemablend reported this week that one of Amy Adams best scenes from the Denis Villenueve's Arrival ended up on the cutting room floor.  Sean O'Connell reports that the decision to excise the specific scene was so successfully acted that it actually was too revealing.  Check out the story here but BE AWARE that it does contain substantial SPOILERS.

That's your MTFB/FAC for Thursday.  More on Monday.


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Many a Trailer Come Our Way / Checking in with the Stars from TFF #43 / Oscar Biz Buzz

Good Monday Space Cadets...Hope your weekend was out of this world.


MANY A TRAILER COME OUR WAY

Over the end of the week and into the weekend we saw a bevy of new trailers released for films that played at this year's Telluride Film Festival.  Included in the onslaught were new views of Denis Villenueve's Arrival, Pablo Larrain's Foreign Language Oscar contender Neruda and Keif Davidson, Steven Okazaki's Mifune: The Last Samurai and Richard Ladkani's The Ivory Game.

Let' start with the final Arrival trailer (the film is set for release in the U.S. on Nov. 11):

The coverage for Arrival's final trailer was vast  Here are links to that coverage from:

Entertainment Weekly

The Hollywood Reporter

The Film Stage

The Playlist

First Showing

SlashFilm

The trailer for Pablo Larrain's Neruda is here:

Along with coverage from 

Indiewire

The Playlist

Here's the trailer for Mifune: The Last Samurai from YouTube:

The coverage is provided by:

Indiewire


And finally, the trailer for The Ivory Game is here:

With trailer release coverage from"

The Playlist

and Indiewire


CHECKING IN WITH THE FILM MAKERS OF TFF #43

Lots of interviews and profiles are flooding the internet as we move into prime release territory for films that playing at TFF in 2016.  Here's a sampling focused on the emerging indie hit (more about that below) Moonlight as well as the perceived Oscar frontrunner, Damien Chazelle's La La Land:

Moonlight...

Profiles and interviews with writer/director Barry Jenkins: from: Indiewire The Los Angeles Times and Awards Daily

Also this Indiewire interview with Naomie Harris  along with Entertainment Weekly's sit down with Mahershala Ali

And Entertainment Weekly introduces La La Land's Emma Stone and her "73 Questions" Vogue story.  Here's the video from Vogue:

OSCAR BIZ BUZZ

The Gotham Award nominations were announced on Thursday and TFF #43 films Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight were very much represented.  Manchester was nominated for four of the awards that are presented by the Independent Film Project.  Included in Manchester's haul: Best Feature, Best Actor (Casey Affleck), Best Screenplay and Best Breakthrough Performer (Lucas Hedges).

Moonlight was right behind with nominations for Best Feature, Best Screenplay and will receive a special cast award for its ensemble.

Other Best Feature nominees were: Paterson, Certain Women and Everybody Wants Some.

The Gothams will be handed out on Nov. 28.

Here's coverage of the nomination announcement from Variety. 

Meanwhile, Awards Daily founder Sasha Stone provided this analysis of the Gotham's effect here.

Also today in Oscar Biz Buzz, Moonlight made other waves over the weekend including a ridiculous monetary haul from just four theaters.  Indiewire reports on the stunning success of Moonlight on incredibly limited release.

The latest edition of the ScreenTalk podcast featuring Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson of Indiewire also focuses, in large measure, on Moonlight's burgeoning Oscar profile.  Here's your link to the story and the podcast.

In other Oscar Biz Buzz, there have been any number of reports yesterday that Viola Davis will be campaigned for Best Supporting Actress for the Screen Actor's Guild.  Although the Academy does not have to follow suit for the Oscars, that would become the more likely scenario.  The decision will open up an almost certain slot for the Best Actress race which many regard as the most competitive acting category (and maybe the most competitive Oscar category...period).  It would also make the Best Supporting Actress category (which has been seen to a three way race between Naomie Harris/Moonlight, Michelle Williams/Manchester and Nicole Kidman/Lion) a much tougher proposition.

Stories to that effect are here from Entertainment Weekly as well as The Playlist.


That's a wrap for this Monday.  More to come on Thursday...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Moonlight's Naomie Harris in the Spotlight / The Gold Derby's Latest Look at the Oscar Race / Toni Erdmann's Got a New Trailer

Good Thursday morning everyone.

MOONLIGHT'S NAOMIE HARRIS IN THE SPOTLIGHT

Variety' Kristopher Tapley interviews actress Naomie Harris.  The Best Supporting Actress Oscar candidate talks about her role in Barry Jenkins' critical hit, Moonlight.  Harris is, at least for the moment, among the top two or three potential nominees for that category.

Check out  her interview in Variety.



THE LATEST OSCAR ODDS FROM THE GOLD DERBY

New odds based on the best experts from Oscar punditry were released earlier this week from The Gold Derby.  The latest assessment has five TFF #43 films sitting in the top ten possible Best Picture nominees.  They are as follows:

La La Land (#1 at 5 to 1), Manchester by the Sea (#2 at 7 to 1), Moonlight (#6 at 12 to 1). Arrival (#9 at 25 to 1) and Sully (#10 at 40 to 1).


Click here to see the latest complete  Oscar odds from The Gold Derby.



TONI ERDMANN GETS A NEW TRAILER

Telluride and Cannes hit Toni Erdmann has a new trailer as we get closer to its release date.  The film is widely expected to be an Oscar Foreign Language Film nominee.

Check these articles for trailer details and links to the trailer itself.

https://t.co/ADgzGDD5Xe

http://theplaylist.net/new-trailer-festival-sensation-awards-contender-toni-erdmann-20161005/

That's going to do it for a truncated Thursday post.  More on Monday!


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT to the Blog itself.