THE FAC ASSESSES SUPPORT
Supporting Acting categories that is. The last FAC look at the Supporting races was a month ago (Nov. 17) and a lot has changed since then on the men's side. The women's side is remarkably stable. Let's take a look at the latest assessment...
I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
TFF #43 films are in Bold. The person's previous position follows its title in parentheses.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Viola Davis/Fences (1)
2) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (3)
3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (2)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (4)
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (6)
6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (5)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (8)
8) Molly Shannon/Other People (10)
9) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (7)
10) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls (9)
Hot: Shannon
Not: Mirren
On the Cusp: Lily Gladstone/Certain Women
Comment: As I wrote above, a very stable category over the past month with no additions pr deletions from the top ten and only minor movement among them. Viola Davis is clearly the prohibitive favorite. It increasingly seems that the only person with a chance to pull the upset is Michelle Williams who has taken a number of critic's prizes in the category.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2)
3) Dev Patel/Lion (3)
4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (6)
6) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (NR)
7) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (7)
8) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (NR)
9) Issei Ogata/Silence (NR)
10) Aaron Eckhart/Bleed for This (8)
Hot: Foster, Costner and Ogata who jump into the top ten for the first time this season.
Not: Eckhart, and Stephen Henderson, Liam Neeson and Peter Saarsgard who dropped out of the top ten over the past month.
On the Cusp; Ralph Fiennes/A Bigger Splash
Comment: Ali has become a juggernaut of sorts as he has won critic's prize after critic's prize for his work in Moonlight. He's not as prohibitive a favorite as Davis is among the women but he's getting there.
Thursday...a look at the screenplay categories and we'll measure the effect of Moonlight and Loving being moved from the Original to the Adapted category.
SHORTLISTS
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences narrowed a number of categories this past week and those decisions had immediate ramifications for films that played at Telluride in September.
For example, the Foreign Language field was pared down to nine films:
Australia: Tanna
Canada: It's Only the End of the World
Denmark: Land of Mine
Germany: Toni Erdmann
Iran: The Salesman
Norway: The King's Choice
Russia: Paradise
Sweden: A Man Called Ove
Switzerland: My Life as a Zucchini
The field includes only one T-ride title-and possibly the ultimate favorite for the trophy-Toni Erdmann. Left off were both Neruda and Fire at Sea which played TFF #43 and were thought to be serious players for a FLF Oscar nomination. The final five nominees will be announced Jan. 24th.
Coverage of the shortlist announcement is here from:
Awards Daily
Gold Derby
Indiewire
Deadline
Awards Watch
Also, The Academy pared down the list of films still eligible for the Visual Effects nomination and Telluride still has a player in that race as Denis Villenueve's Arrival was named one of the ten films still under consideration. Having a Telluride film in contention for the Visual Effects Oscar is a rare but not unheard of occurrence (Gravity was nominated and won in 2013).
Entertainment Weekly has the story which includes all of the films still alive in addition to Arrival.
Additionally, The Oscar Documentary shortlist was announced last week. Among the 15 films making the shortlist were a number that screened at TFF #43. The Eagle Huntress, The Ivory Game and Fire at Sea made the list that will be whittled to five films on Jan. 24th.
The New York Times has coverage here of the announcement.
BERLIN 2017 BEGINS REVEALING
We heard this week a few of the titles that will debut at the Berlin International Film Festival which runs Feb. 9-19, 2017.
Here's why that matters to readers of this space. You can make a safe bet that a couple of Berlin titles make their way to Telluride in nine months. Last year, for example, Mia Hansen-Love's Things to Come and Gianfranco's Fire at Sea both premiered at Berlin and then made the trip to the San Juans. In 2015 Taxi and 45 Years did the same thing. So, we can cast a glance at the few announced films from this week and pick out some films that make the most sense for a Telluride play and there are a few that have some characteristics (i.e. directors that have had films play TFF in the past) that make them prime suspects:
The Party/Sally Potter (TFF 2012- Ginger and Rosa)
Spoor/Angnieska Holland (TFF 2013-Burning Bush, TFF 2011-In Darkness)
The Other Side of Hope/Aki Kaurismaki (TFF 2011-Le Havre)
A Fantastic Woman/Sebastian Lelio (TFF 2013-Gloria)
Coverage of the Berlin reveals is here from:
Variety
The Playlist
The Film Stage
That's Monday's post. Come back for more on Thursday.
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