Monday, January 29, 2018

Telluride in 1985: Re-visiting TFF #12 / The FAC's First Oscar Winners Forecast / EW Profiles Lady Bird / THR and the Paths to Oscar Glory

Welcome back from the last weekend of the first month of 2018.


TELLURIDE IN 1985: RE-VISITING TFF #12



The 12th Telluride Film Festival took place from Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 1985.

TRIBUTES:

Alexander Trauner
Emilio Fernandez
Hanna Schygulla

SHOWS



All he King's Men
Bliss
Chaos
Colonel Redl
Derborence
Desert Hearts
Drums Across the Sea
Dracula
Frida
The Funeral
The Girl with the Hat Box
The Great Wall Is a Great Wall
Harvest
Hidden River
The House on Trubaya Square
Huey Long
In Her Own Time
The Journey of Natty Gann
Les Visiteurs Du Soir
Louie Bluie
Lulu in Berlin
The Marriage of Maria Braun
Mishima: A Life in Four Chapters
The Mystery of Picasso
Nicaragua Was Our Home
Night of the Shooting Stars
One More Spring
The Passion of Joan of Arc
The Pearl
The Rebel
Reed: Insurgent Mexico
Sheer Madness
The Woman Men Yearn For
Yellow Earth

PARTICIPANTS

Klaus Maria Brandauer
Ken Burns
Roger Ebert
Chuck Jones
Helen Shaver
Alice Waters
Terry Zwigoff


THE FAC'S FIRST OSCAR WINNERS FORECAST

Here's a quick look at four major categories and what I perceive as the most to least likely winners in each category on Oscar Night, Mar. 4th.

Best Picture:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Lady Bird
4) Get Out
5) Dunkirk
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Post
9) Darkest Hour

Best Direction

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Greta Gerwig/ Lady Bird
4) Paul Thomas Anderson/Phantom Thread
5) Jordan Peele

Best Actress

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
4) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
5) Meryl Streep/The Post

Best Actor

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
4) Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq.
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

EW PROFILES LADY BIRD

Entertainment Weekly published a profile of Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird this week as Oscar nominations were announced.  The cover photo:




The film received five nominations last Tuesday for Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.

Here's the link to the online version.



THR AND THE PATHS TO OSCAR GLORY



The Hollywood Reporter's Stephen Galloway posted analysis this week about the ways and circumstances for a number of the Best Picture nominees to pay that off with the win for Best Picture on March 4th.

The article includes particularly analysis for TFF #44 films The Shape of Water and Lady Bird with Darkest Hour mentioned...barely.

Here's the link to the Galloway analysis.


That's your MTFB for Monday, Jan. 29, 2018.  I'll have more on Thursday...that'll be in February!


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Thursday, January 25, 2018

Oscar Thoughts and Telluride / Oscar Stats / Gold Derby's Early Line

Welcome to Thursday.


OSCAR THOUGHTS AND TELLURIDE



After the dust settles on Tuesday morning (and a couple of corrections after I lost the Best Costume Design nominees for a little while) we found that films that had played at the 44th edition of the Telluride Film Festival had garnered 30 nominations.  That's a far cry from last years total of 42 but still slightly ahead of the average number of nominations (around 28) since I have been tracking the awards season as a part of this space.

The breakdown:

The Shape of Water (13 which led all nominees...by a considerable margin): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Darkest Hour (6): Best Picture, Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.

One nomination each for:

A Fantastic Woman- Foreign Language Film
The Insult-Foreign Language Film
Loveless- Foreign Language Film
Loving Vincent-Animated Feature
Faces Places-Documentary Feature
Heroin(e)- Documentary Short

The FAC predictions went 94/122 for 77%...very average for The FAC. 

The FAC nailed some categories going 5 for 5 in Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Original Song, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

I was worst in Live Action and Documentary Short going 2 of 5 in both of those categories.

As is often the case, there were a number of categories where I had an what turned out to be an actual nominee in the first slot beyond my predicted nominees including Meryl Streep for Best Actress, Denzel Washington for Best Actor, Octavia Spencer for Best Supporting Actress and Christopher Plummer in Best Supporting Actor.  Other categories where that was the case were: Best Foreign Language Film, Best Animated Feature, and all three Shorts categories for a total of nine near misses.

I did hit 8/9 in Best Picture with Phantom Thread being where I whiffed.

As a matter of fact, the biggest surprise to me was the strength of Phantom Thread which landed a total of six nominations including Best Picture and Best Direction.  Another surprise, The Post's meager two nominations for Best Picture and Best Actress.

My best work...edging up Darkest Hour to my 9th spot.  My worst...missing Meryl Streep.  Never bet against Streep.

Now it's the wait for March 4th and the actual ceremony.


  OSCAR STATS



In addition to The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour and Lady Bird, there were other films that landed multiple nominations.

Following The Shape of Water, Dunkirk came next with 8 nominations followed by

Three Billboards 7
Phantom Thread 6
Blade Runner 2049 5
Call Me By Your Name, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Get Out each had 4 nominations.

Indiewire has the complete breakdown of nominees per film and per distributor and you can find that post linked here.

Additionally, you can find Indiewire's analysis of the nominees here.


GOLD DERBY'S EARLY LINE



Gold Derby has established their front runners.

The Shape of Water leads for Best Picture with odds of 9/2.  Three Billboards is next and then Lady Bird.

Other early leaders in major categories are:

Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water.  Odds- 3/2
Best Actor: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour. Odds- 3/2
Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards. Odds- 8/5
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards. Odds- 13/8
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney 7/4
Original Screenplay: Lady Bird 12/5
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name 8/5

The complete Gold Derby Odds are here.


That's your Thursday for MTFB.  I'll have more for you on Monday.  Have a great weekend!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG


Tuesday, January 23, 2018

OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

2018 90th OSCAR NOMINATIONS

BEST PICTURE

Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

FAC goes 8/9

BEST DIRECTION

Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
Jordan Peele/Get Out
Paul Thomas Anderson/Phantom Thread

FAC goes 4/5


BEST ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
 Meryl Streep/The Post

FAC goes 4/5

BEST ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis/Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out
Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq.

FAC goes 4/5

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Leslie Manville/Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water

FAC goes 3/5

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards

FAC goes 4/5

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound

FAC goes 4/5


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY



The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

FAC goes 5/5

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square

FAC goes 3/5


ANIMATED FEATURE

The Breadwinner
The Boss Baby
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

FAC goes 4/5

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
The Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

FAC goes 4/5


FILM EDITING

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
Three Billboards
The Shape of Water

FAC goes 4/5

CINEMATOGRAPHY



Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

FAC goes 5/5

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water

FAC goes 3/5

COSTUME DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

FAC goes 5/5

MAKEUP AND HAIR

Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder

FAC goes 2/3

ORIGINAL SCORE




Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars;The Last Jedi
Three Billboards

FAC goes 3/5


ORIGINAL SONG

The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
Remember Me/ Coco
This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
Stand Up for Something/Marshall
Mighty River/Mudbound

FAC goes 5/5

VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

FAC goes 3/5

SOUND EDITING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

FAC goes 5/5

SOUND MIXING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

FAC goes 5/5

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Dekalb Elementary
Eleven O'Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote

FAC goes 2/5


ANIMATED SHORT

Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes

FAC goes 3/5


DOCUMENTARY SHORT



Edith and Eddie
Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop

FAC goes 2/5

TFF Films earn 30 nominations:

The Shape of Water (13): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Darkest Hour (6): Best Picture, Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

One nomination each for:

A Fantastic Woman- Foreign Language FIlm
The Insult-Foreign Language Film
Loveless- Foreign Language Film
Loving Vincent-Animated Feature
Faces Places-Documenatry Festure
Heroin(e)- Documentary Short

The FAC goes 94/122 for 77%...very average for The FAC.




Monday, January 22, 2018

MTFB/FAC Final Oscar Nomination Predictions / The FAC Oscar Nomination Breakdown / Final Oscar Predictions from Experts / Producers Guild Awards The Shape of Water / SAG-AFtra Likes Three Billboards

It's Monday and in less than 24 hours we will know the Oscar nominees for the 90th Edition of the awards...


MTFB/FAC FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS



Here they are...the final predictions for Oscar nominations.  Historically, The FAC is accurate 75%-80%.  It's also worth noting that in those categories where The FAC misses the sixth predicted nominee pops up  more than half of the time.

Nomination predictions are alphabetical.  "Others" are listed in the order of their probability of displacing one of the predicted nominees.

TFF #44 films are Bold.



BEST PICTURE

Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Others: (in order of likelihood): Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, The Big Sick, Phantom Thread

BEST DIRECTION

Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
Jordan Peele/Get Out

Others: Steven Spielberg/The Post, Sean Baker/The Florida Project, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game
Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird

Others: Meryl Streep/The Post, Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Michelle Williams/All the Money in the World

BEST ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis/Phantom Thread
James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out
Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour

Others: Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post, Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
Hong Chau/Downsizing
Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards

Others: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY



The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

Others: The Post, Phantom Thread, I, Tonya

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Fantastic Woman
Foxtrot
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square

Others; The Insult, The Wound, Felicitie


ANIMATED FEATURE

The Breadwinner
The Boss Baby
Coco
The Lego Batman Movie
Loving Vincent

Others: Ferdinand, Despicable Me 3, Cars 3

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Faces Places
Icarus
Jane
The Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

Others: City of Ghosts, Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Long Strange Trip


FILM EDITING

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Get Out
Three Billboards
The Shape of Water

Others: The Post, I Tonya, Lady Bird

CINEMATOGRAPHY



Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Others:Three Billboards, The Post, Call Me By Your Name

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Others: The Post,  I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

COSTUME DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Others: The Post,  I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

MAKEUP AND HAIR

Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder

Others: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Bright, Ghosts in the Shell

ORIGINAL SCORE



Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Post
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Three Billboards

ORIGINAL SONG

The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
Remember Me/ Coco
This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
Stand Up for Something/Marshall
Mighty River/Mudbound

Others: Evermore/Beauty and the Beast, It Ain't Fair/Detroit, Prayers for This World/Cries From Syria

VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
War for the Planet of the Apes

Others: Okja, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Valerian

SOUND EDITING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

Others: Wonder Woman, Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes

SOUND MIXING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

Others: Get Out, Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Dekalb Elementary
Facing Mecca
Lost Face
Watu Wote
Witnesses

Others: My Nephew Emmett, The Silent Child, Eleven O'Clock


ANIMATED SHORT

Cradle
Dear Basketball
In a Heartbeat
Lou
Negative Space

Others: Revolting Rhymes, Life Smartphone, Fox and the Whale


DOCUMENTARY SHORT



116 Cameras
Alone-The New York Times
Edith and Eddie
Heroin(e)
Kayayo-The Living Shopping Baskets

Others: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Ten Meter Tower, Traffic Stop


THE FAC OSCAR NOMINATION BREAKDOWN



If the FAC is 100% accurate tomorrow morning (and it will actually be between 70%-80% accurate if the past is prologue), here are some interesting notes:

TFF #44 films will collect 29 total nominations.

The Shape of Water will lead all nominees with 13: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.  The film could tie La La Land's all time total of 14 or even go to 15 with additional nominations for Octavia Spencer (very possible) and/or Michael Shannon (unlikely).

Darkest Hour (6): Best Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Makeup and Hair.  Don't go to sleep on Darkest Hour's Best Picture chances.  If the BP field extends past eight films, it could slip in.  Strong support in the craft categories and a strong vote from British Academy members could all create enough heat to propel it onto the list.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.  If Lady Bird picks up a sixth nomination expect it to be for Film Editing (not likely) which could signal that it is still very solid contender for BP.  Tracy Letts has a way, way outside shot at Best Supporting Actor.

Other TFF #44 films The FAC says get nominated:

Hong Chau/Best Supporting Actress-Downsizing
Foreign Language Film nominees: A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, Loveless
Loving Vincent/Animated Feature
Faces Places/Documentary Feature
Heroin(e)/Documentary Short


Other films with four or more nominations:

Dunkirk-8
Three Billboards-7
Call Me By Your Name-5
Get Out-5
Blade Runner 2049-4
Mudbound-4
Phantom Thread-4


FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM EXPERTS




Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Tapley Predicts the following nominations for TFF #44 films

The Shape of Water (11)- Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Hawkins), Supporting Actor (Jenkins), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Lady Bird (5)- Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (5)- Actor (Oldman), Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Original Score, Production Design

Downsizing (1)- Supporting Actress (Chau)

Loving Vincent (1)- Animated Feature

A Fantastic Woman (1)- Foreign Language Film

The Insult (1)- Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1)- Foreign Language Film

Faces Places (1)- Documentary

Heroin(e) (1)- Documentary Short

Tapley's Telluride total = 28 nominations


Here's his complete set of final Oscar nomination predictions.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

The Shape of Water (12): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay. Film Editing, Cinematography,  Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Visual Effects.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (3): Actor, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair

Downsizing (1): Supporting Actress

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Stone doesn't predict the Short Film categories.

Stone's total predictions for TFF #44 films: 26 nominations


Stone's complete "Predictions Friday" post is here.


Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

The Shape of Water (14): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Costumes, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (4): Actor, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (1) Adapted Screenplay

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

The Insult (1) Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Davis' total predictions for TFF #44 films: 31.

Davis complete final predictions are here.


Scott Feinberg/Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter

The Shape of Water (12):  Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (7): Best Picture, Actor, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Original Score

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Feinberg's total predictions for TFF #44 films: 29.

Feinberg's complete final predictions are here.


Erik Anderson and The Gold Rush Gang/Awards Watch


The Shape of Water (13): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Sound Mixing, Visual Effects

Darkest Hour (6): Actor, Cinematography, Original Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Anderson and crew predict a total of 30 nominations for TFF #44 films.

Their complete predictions are here.



THE PRODUCERS GUILD AWARDS THE SHAPE OF WATER



Ahead of its expected announcement as the leader in number of Oscar nominations tomorrow, The Producers Guild names Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water their Best Picture of the Year on Saturday night.

It's worth noting that The PGA has a preferential ballot like Oscar does.  It;s also worth noting that La La Land won the PGA and led all films in Oscar nominations last year and look how that turned out.

I have linked coverage and analysis from:





SAG-AFTRA LIKES THREE BILLBOARDS



Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri cleaned up at last night's SAG-AFTRA Awards claiming the Best Ensemble prize along with wins for Frances McDormand for Best Actress and Sam Rockwell for Best Supporting Actor.

Though the voting for Oscar nominations has been over for a few days, this turn of events along with The Shape of Water's win at the PGA on Saturday seems to indicate a two film race between Three Billboards and Shape for the Best Picture Oscar.

Many of the Oscar experts I follow, however are saying that both Get Out and Lady Bird aren't out of the race yet.

I have linked analysis from: 





That's it for this Monday.  I'll post Oscar nominees and a few thoughts tomorrow after the nominees are announced in a SPECIAL POST of Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG




Thursday, January 18, 2018

The FAC Predicts Foreign, Animated, Doc and Shorts / The Film Stage Looks Forward to 2018 / Hope for The Other Side the Wind

Good Thursday film friends and a big shout out to any and all of you Sundancers as that film fest launches today.  What will be this year's Get Out, Mudbound or Call Me By Your Name?


THE FAC PREDICTS FOREIGN, ANIMATED, DOC AND SHORTS

There are just a few days left before the live reveal of all 24 categories of nominations for the Oscars for this year.  That is set to happen early on Tuesday morning, Jan. 23rd.  In my last post I updated a bunch of major categories and included predictions on a number of feature "under the line" categories.  Today, I complete the circle with predictions for the remaining six categories not covered on Monday.

As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM



1) Foxtrot
2) Loveless
3) A Fantastic Woman
4) The Square
5) In the Fade

Others: The Insult, The Wound and Felicite.

Comment: This could be the most Telluride-centric category of the bunch.  If The Insult could supplant The Square or In the Fade, TFF #44 films would be 4 of the 5 nominees.  Realistically, the only other category that might approach that is Best Supporting Actress and that assumes that Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water-possible) Hong Chau (Downsizing-possible) or Kristen Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour-unlikely) join all but certain nominees Allison Janney (I, Tonya) and Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird).

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE



1) Coco
2) The Breadwinner
3) Loving Vincent
4) Lego Batman
5) The Boss Baby

Others: Despicable Me 3, Cars 3, Ferdinand


BEST DOCUMENTARY



1) Jane
2) Faces Places
3) Strong Island
4) Icarus
5) Last Men in Aleppo

Others: City of Ghosts, Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Long Strange Trip


LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Dekalb Elementary
2) Facing Mecca
3) Watu Wote
4) Witnesses
5) Lost Face

Others: My Nephew Emmett, The Silent Child, The Eleven O'Clock

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Dear Basketball
2) Lou
3) Cradle
4) In a Heartbeat
5) Negative Space

Others: Revolting Rhymes, Life Smartphone, Fox and the Whale


DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Eddie and Edith
2) Heroin(e)
3) Kayayo-The Living Shopping Baskets
4) Alone-The New York Times
5) 116 Cameras

Others: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Ten Meter Tower, Traffic Stop


Added to the predicted total from last Monday's post, if The FAC is 100% accurate (and it won't be), TFF #44 films will collectively earn 30 Oscar nominations on Tuesday.  The average for TFF #44 over the past several years is 27.

Last year, though was an all timer for TFF as TFF #43 films racked up a total of 42 nominations.


THE FILM STAGE LOOKS FORWARD TO 2018



The Film Stage published their list of 100 "Most Anticipated" films for 2018 last week and a number of titles that I believe have Telluride potential made their list.

For example:

#99-First Man
#95- Backseat (the Adam McKay Dick Cheney film starring Christian Bale)
#94- The Widow
#93- The Little Stranger
#79- Kursk
#77- At Eternity's Gate (does Julian Schnabel return to Telluride?)
#71-Mid-90's
#67- Where Is Anne Frank?
#61- The Death and Life of John F. Donovan
#52- Private Life
#50-Boy Erased
#48- Cold War
#46- The Sisters Brothers (does Audiard return to Telluride?)
#34- Sunset
#30- The Man Who Killed Don Quixote
#28- Peterloo
#27- The Women of Marwen
#26- Roma
#16- E-Book
#11- Everybody Knows (does Farhadi return to Telluride?)
#8- Widows (Steve McQueen...)
#4- Maya
#2- If Beale Street Could Talk

The complete Film Stage post is here.



HOPE FOR THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WIND

For months now, we have been anticipating the arrival of the restoration of Orson Welles unfinished final film The Other Side of the Wind.  We knew that the work to put it together had been continuing. 

The anticipation may finally have a payoff.  The Film Stage reports that a version of the film was screened this week.  The Film Stage tweeted that information last night (derived from a WellesNet.com tweet:




This increases the chances that we could see the film in eight months in the San Juans.  Fingers crossed.



That's your MTFB for today.  Come back on Monday for final Oscar nomination predictions!


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG





Monday, January 15, 2018

The FAC Updates Oscar's Major Categories / The FAC Predicts Under the Line Categories

Welcome back from the weekend.  Hope you had a good one.


THE FAC UPDATES OSCAR'S MAJOR CATEGORIES



With less than ten days left before scar announces its nominees, here are updated predictions in each of the eight "major" categories.  If you don't think Golden Globe results don't alter the perception of the race...maybe re-think.  As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE



The last update was on Best Picture was on Dec. 18th and it looked like this:

1) Lady Bird
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) The Post
5) Dunkirk
6) The Shape of Water
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project

Others: Mudbound, Darkest Hour, The Big Sick

And today's update:

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) The Shape of Water
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) The Post
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project

Others: The Big Sick, Darkest Hour, I Tonya


BEST DIRECTION

Last post:

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Steven Spielberg/The Post
4) Jordan Peele/Get Out
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird

Others: Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound

Today's update:

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Get Out/Jordan Peele
4) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird

Others: Steven Spielberg/The Post, Sean Baker/The Florida Project, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name


BEST ACTRESS

Last update was:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post
5) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water

Others: Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes


And today's update:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
5) Meryl Streep/The Post

Others: Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Michelle Williams/All the Money in the World


BEST ACTOR



As of the last update:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
4) Daniel Day Lewis-Phantom Thread
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Others: Tom Hanks/The Post, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq., Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger


And today's update:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
4) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Others: Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post, Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



From the Jan. 1st update:

1) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
2) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
3) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
4) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
5) Hong Chau/Downsizing



Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Leslie Manville/The Phantom Thread.


And the newest FAC says:

1) Allison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
5) Hong Chau/Downsizing

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Jan. 1st line:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
4) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes


And today's updated line:

1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
3) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
4) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

From the last update:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Wonderstruck


And today's update says:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Molly's Game
3) Mudbound
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY



The last posted predictions were:

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) Lady Bird
4) The Post
5) The Shape of Water



Others: The Big Sick, Phantom Thread, I Tonya


And today's updated list is:

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) Lady Bird
4) The Shape of Water
5) The Big Sick

Others: The Post, Phantom Thread, I Tonya




THE FAC PREDICTS "UNDER THE LINE" CATEGORIES

10 "under the line categories".

As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Blade Runner 2049
2) Dunkirk
3) The Shape of Water
4) Mudbound
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, Three Billboards, Call Me By Your Name

FILM EDITING

1) Dunkirk
2) The Shape of Water
3) Get Out
4) Three Billboards
5) The Post

Others: Baby Driver, Lady Bird, I, Tonya


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Phantom Thread
2) Beauty and the Beast
3) The Shape of Water
4) Victoria and Abdul
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

COSTUMES

1) Phantom Thread
2) Beauty and the Beast
3) The Shape of Water
4) Victoria and Abdul
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman


MAKEUP AND HAIR



1) Darkest Hour
2) Wonder
3) I, Tonya

Others: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Bright, Ghosts in the Shell


ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Shape of Water
2) Dunkirk
3) The Post
4) Phantom Thread
5) Darkest Hour

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Three Billboards


ORIGINAL SONG

1) Remember Me/Coco
2) Stand Up for Something/Marshall
3) This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
4) The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
5) Mighty River/Mudbound

Others: Evermore/Beauty and the Beast, It Ain't Fair/Detroit, Prayers for This World/Cries for Syria

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) War for the Planet of the Apes
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) The Last Jedi
4) Dunkirk
5) The Shape of Water

Others: Okja, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Valerian

SOUND EDITING

1) Dunkirk
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) Baby Driver
4) The Last Jedi
5) The Shape of Water

Others: Wonder Woman. Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes


SOUND MIXING

1) Dunkirk
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) The Shape of Water 
4) The Last Jedi
5) Baby Driver

Others: Get Out, Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes


If the FAC is 100% accurate TFF #44 films would earn 25 nominations from these 18 categories.

The Shape of Water-13
Darkest Hour-6
Lady Bird-5
Downsizing-1

On Thursday, I'll take a look at the remaining 6 categories: FOreign Language, Animated Feature, Doc Feature and the three Shorts categories.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Thursday, January 11, 2018

BAFTA Nominees and Telluride / More Precursors Today / This Year's Oscar Poster / DGA Doc Noms Include Morris, Burns and Novick

It's Thursday.  It's January.  It's 2018.


BAFTA NOMINEES AND TELLURIDE



The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their nominees for excellence in 2017 earlier this week and TFF #44 films snagged 31 of them.  Big TFF #44 players were The Shape of Water with 12, which topped all films and Darkest Hour with nine.  The robust presence of Darkest Hour combined with Gary Oldman's Golden Globe win for Best Actor-Drama has given the Joe Wright film a boost at the opportune moment right in the middle of Oscar voting.

TFF #44 films and their nominations for BAFTA awards were:

The Shape of Water (12): Best Film, Direction, Original Screenplay, Sally Hawkins/Actress, Octavia Spencer/Supporting Actress, Original Music, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects and Costumes.

Darkest Hour (9): Best Film, Best British Film, Gary Oldman/Actor, Kristen Scott Thomas/Supporting Actress. Original Music, Cinematography, Production Design, Makeup/Hair, Costumes.

Lady Bird (3): Original Screenplay, Saoirse Ronan/Actress, Laurie Metcalf/Supporting Actress.

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (3): Adapted Screenplay, Annette Bening/Actress, Jamie Bell/Actor

First They Killed My Father (1): Best Film not in the English Language

Loveless (1): Best Film not in the English Language

An Inconvenient Sequel (1):Documentary

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Film

The complete list of nominees is here from the official BAFTA website.


MORE PRECURSORS TODAY



We have a precursor double whammy today with the announcement of the five directors nominated for excellence by the Directors Guild of America (DGA).  I'm guessing: Del Toro, Nolan, Gerwig, McDonagh and Spielberg.  Peele is also a real possibility.

Meanwhile, The Critic's Choice Awards are announced tonight.  We'll find out which films and individuals the Broadcast Film Critics of America have determined are the best for 2017.  The Critics Choice Awards broadcast will be at 8:00pm ET on The CW Network.

Oscar voting comes to a conclusion tomorrow and the nominees will be revealed early in the morning on Jan. 23rd.


THIS YEAR'S OSCAR POSTER

The poster for the 90th Academy Awards has been unleashed and features host Jimmy Kimmel and a reminder of the conclusion of last year's awards:






DGA DOCUMENTARY NOMINATIONS INCLUDE MORRIS, BURNS AND NOVICK



Although the Directors Guild names their nominees for feature films today, they have already named their five nominees for direction of feature length documentaries.  Among the nominees were two films that played at Telluride last Labor Day.

Errol Morris was nominated for Wormwood and Ken Burns and Lynn Novick were nominated for The Vietnam War.  Other directors were nominated for Icarus, City of Ghosts and Abacus: Small Enough to Jail.

Anne Thompson of Indiewire has the complete rundown here.



That's your Thursday.  I'll have more on Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Monday, January 8, 2018

Golden Globes Winners / Producers and Writers Guilds Nominate /NSFC Weighs In

Hello Friends...2018 marches on.


GOLDEN GLOBE WINNERS



Here are the winners from last night's Golden Globe awards with films from TFF #44 in Bold.

Best Picture-Drama- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Screenplay-Three Billboards
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film: In the Fade
Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman


Takeaways: The HFPA really liked Three Billboards as it led all films with four wins.  The Shape of Water and Lady Bird were the other two films that had multiple wins with two each.  TFF#44 films scored 5 wins on the night.

What's it mean for Oscar?  Three Billboards is maybe a more serious player than I thought.  Otherwise, despite the fact that Oscar voting is going on right now, I'm not sure the results from last night will make a lot of difference.



PRODUCERS AND WRITERS GUILDS NOMINATE



Both the PGA (Producers Guild of America) and the WGA (Writers Guild of America) announced the nominees for their end of the year awards this week adding fuel to some Oscar fires and potentially signaling weakness for others.

The PGA announced 11 films as finalists for their award.  That's the first time that has happened as a tie in voting created an 11th position for the nominations.  PGA finalists are:

The Big Sick
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
Molly's Game
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Wonder Woman

The announcement was good news for The Big Sick, I Tonya, Molly's Game and Wonder Woman.  Not so much for Darkest Hour or Phantom Thread.

This link is to the official announcement from the PGA.

Here is analysis from Deadline and Indiewire.

Also this week the WGA announced its finalists for Best Original and Adapted Screenplay. 



The nominees for Best Original Screenplay are:

The Big Sick
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water

Adapted Screenplay nominees are:

Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound

It's worth remembering that some surefire Oscar contenders like Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were not eligible for consideration under WGA rules.

WGA analysis is here from Indiewire, Entertainment Weekly and Awards Circuit.


NATIONAL SOCIETY OF FILM CRITICS WEIGHS IN



The last big critics group to announce their choices for the Best of 2017 did so on Saturday.  The National Society of Film Critics (NFSC) named Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird the Best Film of the year in an incredible close vote as it topped Jordan Peele's Get Out by a single ballot.

Lady Bird claimed four wins in all as Gerwig was singled out as Best Director and the writer of the Best Screenplay as well and Laurie Metcalf was named Best Supporting Actress.

Other TFF #44 films also were honored:
Sally Hawkins was named Best Actress for The Shape of Water (and Maudie-TFF #43)
Graduation was named Best Foreign Film and Faces Places was named Best Non-Fiction Film.

TFF #44 films only missed on three awards from the group.

Additionally, Saoirse Ronan was runner-up for Best Actress for Lady Bird.  Michael Sthulbarg was a runner-up for Best Supporting Actor in part for The Shape of Water.  Faces Places was a runner-up for Best Foreign Language Film.

Variety has this report of the NSFC honors including runners-up in each category.


That's your MTFB for this Monday.  Check back for more on Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Sunday, January 7, 2018

SUNDAY SPECIAL: GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

SUNDAY SPECIAL: GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS




Welcome to a special additional post to MTFB.  I've put together a set of predictions today for tonight's Golden Globes ceremony from a bunch of the best people in the film awards business.  We'll see how this all pans out tonight.  TFF #44 films are Bold.

Kristopher Tapley/Variety/InContention

Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Best Actor-Drama-Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor-Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Screenplay-Three Billboards
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-First They Killed My Father
Best Original Score-Dunkirk
Best Song-Mighty River/Mudbound

Tapley's complete article is here.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily (and AD's Oscar Squad)

Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Get Out
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World
Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-First They Killed My Father
Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-Mighty River/Mudbound

Stone's complete article is here.

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Best Picture-Drama- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul
Best Actor-Drama-Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Screenplay-Three Billboards
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-First They Killed My Father
Best Original Score-Dunkirk
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman

Feinberg's complete article is here.

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-First They Killed My Father
Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-Remember Me/Coco

Thompson's complete article is here.

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Best Actor-Drama-Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World
Best Screenplay-Three Billboards
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-The Square
Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-Remember Me Coco

Anderson's complete article is here.

Steve Pond/The Wrap

Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Get Out
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor-Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-The Square
Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman

Pond's complete article is here.


Greg Ellwood/Awards Campaign/The Playlist

Best Picture-Drama-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor-Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World
Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-A Fantastic Woman
Best Original Score-Dunkirk
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman

Ellwood's complete article is here.

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Best Actor-Drama-Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor-Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-A Fantastic Woman
Best Original Score-Phantom Thread
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman

Davis' complete article is here.

Here's the consensus of these eight experts with the number predicting each winner in parentheses:

Best Picture-Drama: The Shape of Water (6), Three Billboards (2)
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy: Lady Bird (6), Get Out (2)
Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water (8)
Best Actress-Drama: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards (5), Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water (3)
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy: Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird (5), Margot Robbie/I, Tonya (2), Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul (1)
Best Actor-Drama: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour (4), Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name (3), Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread (1)
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy: James Franco/The Disaster Artist (8)
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney/I, Tonya (4), Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird (4)
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World (3), Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards (3), Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project (2)
Best Screenplay: Lady Bird (5), Three Billboards (3)
Best Animated Feature: Coco (8)
Best Foreign Language Film: First They Killed My Father (4), A Fantastic Woman (2), The Square (2)
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water (4), Dunkirk (3), Phantom Thread (1)
Best Song: This is Me/The Greatest Showman (4), Remember Me/Coco (2), Mighty River/Mudbound (2)

The experts predict Telluride 2017 films to win anywhere between 3 (Feinberg) to 8 (Stone) Globes.  It is possible for TFF #44 films to win in every category except Original Song.

I'll be tweeting (or re-tweeting) results tonight during the Globe broadcast (on Twitter @Gort2).  I'll also have a full rundown of the Globe results tomorrow morning.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Thursday, January 4, 2018

This Week: Clarity or Confusion? / Film Editing Guild Nominees / Variety with Greta Gerwig and Saoirse Ronan of Lady Bird

Welcome back as 2018 continues...at least for one more day...


THIS WEEK: CLARITY OR CONFUSION?




This week looms large for Oscar watchers as three key Guilds are announcing their nominees for excellence in 2017.  The American Cinema of Editors named theirs yesterday (see below).  The Writers and most critically the Producers Guilds announce tomorrow and Friday respectively.

Then, of course, on Sunday we'll have the HFPA Golden Globes winners announced.  As close as most of this year's Oscar race has seemed, the week could provide some serious momentum as Oscar nomination voting begins on Friday and concludes next Friday, Jan. 12th.

But it's just as likely that the Guilds and Globes this week will split all over the place and we'll get to the Directors Guild nomination announcement next week (on Jan. 11th) and have no clearer sense than we do right now.  Actually, the way this has gone thus far, that's probably the more likely scenario.

Nevertheless, I'll have a special Sunday post this week that will be focused on Golden Globe predictions so keep an eye open for that.


FILM EDITING GUILD NOMINEES



The American Cinema Editors (ACE) named their finalists for editing film excellence yesterday.  Though the ACE nominees don't always align perfectly with Oscar nominees, they are an important precursor for the Film Editing Academy Award and, by extension, the Best Picture Oscar.  Indiewire reports that over the last 24 years 88% of Oscar editing nominees were first nominated by the A.C.E.

There is a long tradition of the eventual Best Picture winner also being named as one of the five Best Film Editing nominees.  The film doesn't have to win for editing but a nomination seems to be key. Moonlight continued that last year as Film Editing was one of its eight Oscar nominations.

The film nominations for the A.C.E. Eddie Awards are:



For Drama:

Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
The Post
The Shape of Water
Molly's Game



For Comedy:

Baby Driver
Get Out
Lady Bird
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I, Tonya


TFF #44 films getting a nod were Lady Bird and The Shape of Water.


I have linked coverage and analysis of the editing nominations here from:

Indiewire

Entertainment Weekly

The Hollywood Reporter

Deadline


VARIETY WITH GERWIG AND RONAN OF LADY BIRD

Variety's Owen Gleiberman has posted an extended profile of Lady Bird writer/director Greta Gerwig and star of the film Saoirse Ronan.  The feature was the cover of the print version of the January, 2018 edition:


Take a look at the electronic version of the story here.




That's your MTFB for Thursday, Jan. 4, 2018.  I'll have a special post on Sunday with pre-Golden Globes predictions and then be back with the regularly scheduled post on Monday with Globe winners coverage.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG