THE FAC UPDATES OSCAR'S MAJOR CATEGORIES
With less than ten days left before scar announces its nominees, here are updated predictions in each of the eight "major" categories. If you don't think Golden Globe results don't alter the perception of the race...maybe re-think. As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
The last update was on Best Picture was on Dec. 18th and it looked like this:
1) Lady Bird
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) The Post
5) Dunkirk
6) The Shape of Water
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project
Others: Mudbound, Darkest Hour, The Big Sick
And today's update:
1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) The Shape of Water
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) The Post
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project
Others: The Big Sick, Darkest Hour, I Tonya
BEST DIRECTION
Last post:
1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Steven Spielberg/The Post
4) Jordan Peele/Get Out
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Others: Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound
Today's update:
1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Get Out/Jordan Peele
4) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Others: Steven Spielberg/The Post, Sean Baker/The Florida Project, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name
BEST ACTRESS
Last update was:
1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post
5) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Others: Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes
And today's update:
1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
5) Meryl Streep/The Post
Others: Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Michelle Williams/All the Money in the World
BEST ACTOR
As of the last update:
1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
4) Daniel Day Lewis-Phantom Thread
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out
Others: Tom Hanks/The Post, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq., Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
And today's update:
1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
4) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out
Others: Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post, Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
From the Jan. 1st update:
1) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
2) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
3) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
4) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
5) Hong Chau/Downsizing
Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Leslie Manville/The Phantom Thread.
And the newest FAC says:
1) Allison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
5) Hong Chau/Downsizing
Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Jan. 1st line:
1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
4) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
Others: Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes
And today's updated line:
1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
3) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
4) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
Others: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
From the last update:
1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder
Others: Victoria and Abdul, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Wonderstruck
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder
Others: Victoria and Abdul, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Wonderstruck
And today's update says:
1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Molly's Game
3) Mudbound
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder
Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The last posted predictions were:
1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) Lady Bird
4) The Post
5) The Shape of Water
Others: The Big Sick, Phantom Thread, I Tonya
And today's updated list is:
1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) Lady Bird
4) The Shape of Water
5) The Big Sick
Others: The Post, Phantom Thread, I Tonya
THE FAC PREDICTS "UNDER THE LINE" CATEGORIES
10 "under the line categories".
As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) Blade Runner 2049
2) Dunkirk
3) The Shape of Water
4) Mudbound
5) Darkest Hour
Others: The Post, Three Billboards, Call Me By Your Name
FILM EDITING
1) Dunkirk
2) The Shape of Water
3) Get Out
4) Three Billboards
5) The Post
Others: Baby Driver, Lady Bird, I, Tonya
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Phantom Thread
2) Beauty and the Beast
3) The Shape of Water
4) Victoria and Abdul
5) Darkest Hour
Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman
COSTUMES
1) Phantom Thread
2) Beauty and the Beast
3) The Shape of Water
4) Victoria and Abdul
5) Darkest Hour
Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman
MAKEUP AND HAIR
1) Darkest Hour
2) Wonder
3) I, Tonya
Others: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Bright, Ghosts in the Shell
ORIGINAL SCORE
1) The Shape of Water
2) Dunkirk
3) The Post
4) Phantom Thread
5) Darkest Hour
Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Three Billboards
ORIGINAL SONG
1) Remember Me/Coco
2) Stand Up for Something/Marshall
3) This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
4) The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
5) Mighty River/Mudbound
Others: Evermore/Beauty and the Beast, It Ain't Fair/Detroit, Prayers for This World/Cries for Syria
VISUAL EFFECTS
1) War for the Planet of the Apes
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) The Last Jedi
4) Dunkirk
5) The Shape of Water
Others: Okja, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Valerian
SOUND EDITING
1) Dunkirk
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) Baby Driver
4) The Last Jedi
5) The Shape of Water
Others: Wonder Woman. Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes
SOUND MIXING
1) Dunkirk
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) The Shape of Water
4) The Last Jedi
5) Baby Driver
Others: Get Out, Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes
If the FAC is 100% accurate TFF #44 films would earn 25 nominations from these 18 categories.
The Shape of Water-13
Darkest Hour-6
Lady Bird-5
Downsizing-1
On Thursday, I'll take a look at the remaining 6 categories: FOreign Language, Animated Feature, Doc Feature and the three Shorts categories.
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