And the Oscar Goes To.... / The Telluride Streak Continues / Better Than Last Year

Good Post-Oscar morning Film Nerds!


AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Here are your winners from the 90th Academy Awards as announced last night (***indicates a missed prediction):

Best Picture: The Shape of Water
Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actor: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Supporting Actress; Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory/Call Me By Your Name
Best Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele/Get Out
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Best Animated Feature: Coco
Best Documentary: Icarus
Best Film Editing: Dunkirk
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049 (Deakins finally wins!)
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
Best Original Song: Remember Me/Coco
Best Makeup/Hair: Darkest Hour
Best Costumes: Phantom Thread
Best Sound Editing Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049***
Best Documentary Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405***
Best Live Action Short: The Silent Child***
Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball

The Shape of Water led the pack with four Oscars: Picture, Director, Original Score and Production Design

Dunkirk had three: Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing

Darkest Hour had two: Actor and Makeup/Hair

Three Billboards had two: Actress and Supporting Actor

Coco had two: Animated Feature and Song

Blade Runner 2049 had two: Cinematography and Visual Effects

TFF #44 films took home seven Oscars for Best Picture, Director, Original Score, Actor, Foreign Language Film, Production Design, Makeup/Hair.


THE TELLURIDE STREAK CONTINUES

Beginning in 2008 with Slumdog Millionaire, nine of the last ten Best Picture winners have come through Telluride.  That run now includes a string of eight in a row.  The Shape of Water's win last night continues the streak:

2008: Slumdog Millionaire
2009: The Hurt Locker (not at TFF)
2010: The King's Speech
2011: The Artist
2012: Argo
2013: 12 Years a Slave
2014: Birdman
2015: Spotlight
2016: Moonlight
2017: The Shape of Water

That may finally mean that we can say that the best indicator/precursor for predicting what will win Best Picture now is a Telluride appearance.  It seems, after this crazy and unpredictable and suspenseful Oscar season that a TFF play is more reliable than almost any other precursor whether that's a guild award or some other awards program.

At least until it isn't.

Undoubtedly, the time will come when some film will win Best Picture that does NOT play Telluride.  That's inevitable and this year seemed like a prime year for that to be true but right this minute, this morning...if I were a film maker, producer, Oscar groomer, whatever...and I wanted my film to be a serious player for the big prize a year from now, I'd be busting my hump to get selected for TFF #45.

One other note:  Last night's win for Del Toro for Best Director and Best Picture was particularly sweet after the Del Toro experience we had, especially that my wife had at the fest last fall.  Again, for those who reached out and busted their buns to help make her meeting the new Oscar winner possible, thank you.  You know who you are and many of you swore me to keep your efforts quiet...so ...no names...but, again...thank you from the depths of my soul.

I'll have more on Thursday...with further thoughts as well as an analysis of TFF #44's impact on Oscar.


BETTER THAN LAST YEAR

Just a quick note that MTFB went 21 of 24 for Oscar predicting last night (after a late change in the Documentary category to Icarus).  As usual, the Shorts portion cratered the night.  I was 1 of 3 for the Shorts and 20 of 21 everywhere else.

And...look out...I'll talk Thursday about the Telluride film ratings we do here with the attendees, professionals and their composite.  It has become a ridiculously reliable bellwether for Oscar.

More on Thursday!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Final Oscar #90 Predictions / Oscar Predictions from the Experts

Here's a special Sunday edition of  MTFB...because, you know, Oscars...


FINAL OSCAR #90 PREDICTIONS

Here are MTFB's final Oscar predictions for 2018.  Accuracy you ask?  Last year was a semi-disaster  as I only correctly predicted 15 of the 24 categories.  That repeated 2016's tally.  That came on the heels of the 2015 and 16 Oscars where I was on fire going 40 of 48 over the previous two years.

Here's

2017: 15/24
2016: 15/24
2015: 20/24
2014: 22/24
2013: 18/24
2012: 18/24
2011: 17/24
2010: 14/24

The overall record for the past eight years of Oscar predicting: 139/192 for a 72.4% success rate.  All that means that the the average suggests that I'll hit about 17 or 18 of these and miss on six or seven.

With that in mind here are MTFB's predictions for The 90th Academy Awards:


BEST PICTURE

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) Dunkirk
5) Lady Bird
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) Darkest Hour
9) The Post

The top five seem like the only real candidates and their positions are fluid.  We've gotten used to having a two horse race down the finish these past few years:

Moonlight vs. La La Land
Spotlight vs. The Revenant
Birdman vs. Boyhood
12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity

But this year...you can make a reasonable case for any of the top four and Lady Bird still has a path to the big prize. I'm putting the nomination leader and PGA/DGA winner at the top: The Shape of Water
 
Late note:  I have moved Get Out ahead of Dunkirk to the #3 spot as of 11am (CDT) Sunday morning.

BEST ACTRESS

It's Frances McDormand's.  Upset specials: Sally Hawkins or Saoirse Ronan.

BEST ACTOR

Gary Oldman for the win.  Timothee Chalamet is your best chance at a spoiler.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Allison Janney has this sown up in a race that was once perceived as a tight contest with Laurie Metcalf.  If anyone would upset, it would be her.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sam Rockwell with the win in another category that was initially thought to be competitive with Willem Dafoe.

BEST DIRECTION

Guillermo Del Toro is your favorite to win here but it's not a lock. Christopher Nolan is a possible upset.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

No one thinks it's likely that anyone but James Ivory wins for Call Me By Your Name.  Upset special: Aaron Sorkin for Molly's Game.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

A category that is very competitive.  Three Billboards and Get Out are thought to be the favorite with Lady Bird and The Shape of Water with an outside chance.  My call, for the moment: Get Out.


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Coco is an incredibly prohibitive favorite.  If there were a spoiler it might be The Breadwinner.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

This is all over the place.  I've run across support for the notion of any one of the five films winning the trophy Sunday night.  For the moment, let's call the winner A Fantastic Woman with The Square and Loveless also possible.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Another difficult race.  I've changed this prediction to Icarus with TFF #44's Faces Places as the upset possible.

BEST FILM EDITING

A tight race between Dunkirk and Baby Driver.  I'm going with Dunkirk.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will it be Roger Deakins' year, finally, for Blade Runner 2049?   I'm saying yes but there is also a lot of support for Dunkirk and The Shape of Water.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Shape of Water seems most likely followed by Blade Runner 2049.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Another toss up.  I'm going with Remember Me from Coco with This Is Me from The Greatest Showman as the upset special.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Alexandre Desplat looks to have the inside track for The Shape of Water.  Hans Zimmer could get it for Dunkirk.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

I'm expecting Phantom Thread to win this with The Shape of Water as a potential spoiler.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

The overwhelming sentiment is that the crew from Darkest Hour will win for their transformation of Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill.  Wonder could challenge, but likely will not.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

A very competitive category from which I'm predicting War for the Planet of the Apes but Blade Runner 2049 or Last Jedi could also play.

BEST SOUND MIXING

Dunkirk.  Maybe Baby Driver.

BEST SOUND EDITING

Dunkirk.  Maybe Baby Driver.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Dear Basketball is my pick here to win.  Runner Up: Garden Party

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

DeKalb Elementary with The Silent Child as your upset special.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Edith and Eddie edges out Heroin(e).

If these predictions are 100% accurate (and they won't be...see above) then TFF #44 films will lay out this way:

The Shape of Water wins four : Best Picture, Direction, Original Score and Production Design

Darkest Hour wins two: Best Actor and Makeup/Hair

A Fantastic Woman; Best Foreign Language Film

Total Telluride take: Seven Oscars.

Other multiple winners:

Dunkirk with three: Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Three Billboards with two: Best Actress and Supporting Actor
Coco wins two: Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song

Among feature categories, seven films will pick up a single Oscar:


I, Tonya: Best Supporting Actress
Get Out: Best Original Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name: Best Adapted Screenplay
Icarus: Best Doc
Blade Runner 2049: Best Cinematography (Roger Deakins finally gets Oscar)
War for the Planet of the Apes: Best Visual Effects
Phantom Thread: Best Costumes


OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

Here's an analysis of Oscar predictions from expert Oscarologists with links to their final picks.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Sasha and I diverge on Best Pic.  She has Three Billboards.  Other spots where we disagree and Sasha's picks in each:

Song: Mighty River
Foreign Film: The Insult
Doc Short: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Animated Short: Garden Party
Live Action Short: My Nephew Emmett


Kristopher Tapley-Variety/InContention

Kris and I diverge in four categories:  Kris has:

Original Screenplay: Three Billboards
Song: This Is Me
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Doc Short: Heroin(e)

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Scott has five differences from my picks:

Foreign Language: The Insult
Production Design: Blade Runner 2049
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Doc Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Live Action Short: The Eleven O'Clock

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Anne and I match a good deal.  We differ in two categories:

Documentary: Faces Places
Doc Short: Heroin(e)


Awards Watch

Erik Anderson's group and I diverge in six places:

Song: This Is Me
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Doc: Last Men in Aleppo
Foreign Language Film: Loveless
Doc Short: Heroin(e)
Live Action Short: The Silent Child

Greg Ellwood/The Playlist

Greg and I are hugely agreeable only picking one category differently.  Greg's picks that are different from mine:

Doc Short: Heroin(e)

Pete Hammond/Deadline

Pete and I diverge in three categories:  He says:

Foreign Language Film: The Insult
Doc Short: Heroin(e)
Animated Short: Negative Space


I'll have more in tomorrow morning's regularly scheduled post.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Oscar Predictions Ten Days Out / Future Telluride: Quixote, The Goldfinch and Radioactive

Last Thursday in February my friends...


OSCAR PREDICTIONS TEN DAYS OUT

With a week and a half left before they open the envelopes in L.A. and still a few days left to vote, here are Oscar predictions for the eight major feature film categories at this moment:

BEST PICTURE

1)  The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Dunkirk
4) Get Out
5) Lady Bird
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) Darkest Hour
9) The Post

The top five seem like the only real candidates and their positions are fluid.  We've gotten used to having a two horse race down the finish these past few years:

Moonlight vs. La La Land
Spotlight vs. The Revenant
Birdman vs. Boyhood
12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity

But this year...you can make a reasonable case for any of the top four and Lady Bird still has a path to the big prize.  I'll update these predictions next week but for now, I'm putting the nomination leader and PGA/DGA winner at the top.

The Wrap's Steve Pond wrote about the five films still thought to be in contention.  Here is Pond's article.

BEST ACTRESS

It's Frances McDormand's.  Upset specials: Sally Hawkins or Saoirse Ronan.

BEST ACTOR

Gary Oldman for the win.  Timothee Chalamet is your best chance at a spoiler.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Alison Janney has this sown up in a race that was once perceived as a tight contest with Laurie Metcalf.  If anyone would upset, it would be her.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sam Rockwell with the win in another category that was initially thought to be competitive with Willem Dafoe.

BEST DIRECTION

Guillermo Del Toro is your favorite to win here but it's not a lock. Christopher Nolan is a possible upset.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

No one thinks it's likely that anyone but James Ivory wins for Call Me By Your Name.  Upset special: Aaron Sorkin for Molly's Game.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

An category that is very competitive.  Three Billboards and Get Out are thought to be the favorite with Lady Bird and The Shape of Water with an outside chance.  My call, for the moment: Get Out.


FUTURE TELLURIDE: QUIXOTE, THE GOLDFINCH AND RADIOACTIVE

Three films that appear, at least initially to be potential choices for future TFFs are moving forward.

We have stills from Terry Gilliam's incredibly long gestating passion project, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote.  The film still seems very likely for Cannes and then, perhaps a play at Telluride could be in the offing.  The Playlist put up a new still from the film that has completed filming and is in editing.  As a matter of fact, a rough cut has been screened.

Here's the pic of Jonathan Pryce as Quixote:

The Playlist post is here.

We also saw the first stills from The Goldfinch based on the Donna Tartt novel and under the direction of John Crowley (Brooklyn).  The film is currently scheduled for release on Oct. 11, 2019.

Warner Brothers is distributing and has a solid recent history with films playing at Telluride: Argo, Black Mass, Sully.

Indiewire had a number of shots from the film in a post up earlier this week:

That Indiewire post is here.

And finally, we saw news this week of the next film project from film maker Marjane Satrapi who made waves at Telluride in 2007 with her wonderful animated film Persepolis. 

Variety reported that Amazon has decided to back her next project which will focus on the life of famed scientist Madame Marie Curie.  The film is titled Radioactive.

The film is set to star Rosamund Pike as the trail blazing scientist.  Pike was a guest at Telluride last year with her film Hostiles.

The Variety story is here.


More on Monday including Oscar predictions in more categories.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Afta the BAFTA / Trailer for The Rider Lands

Good Presidents Day to all...

AFTA THE BAFTA

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts presented the Brit equivalent of the Oscar and Martin McDonagh's Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was the big winner taking Best Picture, Best British Film, Best Actress (Frances McDormand), Best Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell) and Best Original Screenplay.

Guillermo Del Toro won Best Director for The Shape of Water.  Shape also won Best Production Design and Best Original Score. 

Gary Oldman won as Best Actor for Darkest Hour.  That film also won Best Makeup and Hair.  Those two films were the TFF #44 haul for the BAFTAs for 2018 as Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird and Paul McGuigan's Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool both got shut out.


The BAFTAS are the last stop on the pre-Oscar road and as such, is the last chance for films to get a little boost.  It's also our last peek at something that could point to what will happen on Oscar night. 

Oscar voting opens tomorrow and closes on Feb. 27th.  The Oscar ceremony is set for Mar. 4th.

Last year TFF #43 films won eight BAFTAS.  La La Land won five including Best Picture, Manchester by the Sea won two and Arrival won one.

Linked coverage of the BAFTAs is here from:

Variety

The Hollywood Reporter 

Indiewire


The BAFTA results have Oscar predictors all over the map on Best Picture.  It seems like a Three Billboards vs. Shape of Water race but their are still voices whispering Get Out and Dunkirk. 

My Lady Bird theory looks weak now.  The notion that it could win on a preferential ballot was intriguing but you also have to figure that it needed one big guild win or a BAFTA mention or two for that theory to make the grade.

And, of course, if Shape of Water, Lady Bird or Darkest Hour don't win Best Picture, that would break the Telluride string of having every Best Picture play the fest since 2010.  At this point, I think it's about 2 to 1 that the string ends on March 4.

Finally, the acting awards all look locked up: McDormand, Oldman, Janney (who won the Supporting Actress BAFTA for I, Tonya) and Rockwell have swept the precursors and all look like your Oscar winners in a couple of weeks.  I'll have a new set of Oscar predictions on Thursday.


TRAILER FOR THE RIDER

Critical favorite from Cannes and then Telluride, Chloe Zhao's The Rider had a trailer release this week.  The film is nominated for four Independent Spirit Awards including Best Feature and is set for U.S. release on April 13th.

The Rider finished tied for #2 in the TFF #44 MTFB Professionals ratings and #6 in the Composite ratings.

Here's Alex Billington/FirstShowing.net's article that accompanied the release of the trailer from earlier this week.

That's today's MTFB.  More on Thursday...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

The Tenth Telluride Film Festival Re-visited / Oscar Watchers Say...

Welcome to Thursday...

THE TENTH TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL RE-VISITED

My ongoing history project for the Telluride Film Festival goes on as we look at the the Tenth TFF that occurred Sept. 2-5, 1983.  Here are the particulars:

Tributes:

Richard Widmark, Andrei Tarkovsky and Luis Trenker.  Irwin Young was rewarded with a Special Medallion.  Additionally, the fest included a homage to David Niven.

SHOWS:

Alambrista
The Ballad of Gregorio Cortez
Boat People
Booker
Carmen
The Challenge
Chan Is Missing
Danton
Detour
Dung Aw
El Norte
Entre Nous
The Eyes, The Mouth
Forbidden Relations
In Heaven There Is No Beer
In the Name of the Father
Insiang
The Kaiser from California
Last Night at the Alamo
The Lost Son
My Name Is Ivan
Night and the City
Nostalghia
Pitfall
The Plague Dogs
Play Dirty
Rings on the Water
Seeing Red
Signal
The Simple Minded Murder
Sli
Testament
Turumba
The Way Ahead
White Shadows on the South Sea


GUESTS

William Devane
Taylor Hackford
Leonard Maltin
Edward James Olmos
Wayne Wang


OSCAR WATCHERS SAY...

Here's a quick sampler of where a number of the best Oscarologists think the Best Picture race is a week before the actual final voting starts:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily:

1) Get Out
2) The Shape of Water
3) Dunkirk
4) Three Billboards
5) Lady Bird
6) Call Me By Your Name
7) Darkest Hour
8) The Post
9) Phantom Thread

Stone's latest predictions are here.

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Lady Bird
4) Dunkirk
5) Phantom Thread
6) Get Out
7) Darkest Hour
8) Call Me By Your Name
9) The Post

Davis' latest predictions are here.

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) Phantom Thread
7) Darkest Hour
8) Call Me By Your Name
9) The Post

Feinberg's latest predictions are here.

Erik Anderson (and crew)/Awards Watch:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) Darkest Hour
9) The Post

Awards Watch's latest predictions are here.

Gold Derby:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) Call Me By Your Name
7) Phantom Thread
8) The Post
9) Darkest Hour

Gold Derby's latest predictions are here.



That's today's MTFB.  More on Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Del Toro Wins the DGA / Indiewire's Awards Spotlight Series with Greta and Saoirse / A Fantastic Reception for A Fantastic Woman

Hello Earthlings...It's Monday...

DEL TORO WINS THE DGA

Guillermo Del Toro's direction for 13 time Oscar nominee The Shape of Water was recognized as the best of 2017 on Saturday night by the Directors Guild of America.  The win makes him the odds on favorite to win the Oscar for Direction and likely boosts Shape's chances to win Best Picture, though of late, it has become surprisingly common for Oscar to split the Directing and Best Picture prizes.

Del Toro joins the other two of the "Three Amigos" Alfonso Cuaron (2013's Gravity) and Alejandro Inarritu (2014's Birdman and 2015's The Revenant)  as winners of the DGA Award.  Both of those directors went on to win the Oscar as well.

Del Toro was named winner in a field that included Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird, Jordan Peele/Get Out (who did win for Best Debut Feature), Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk and Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards.

Analysis and complete winners in all the DGA categories are linked below from:

Indiewire

Gold Derby

Awards Daily

INDIEWIRE'S AWARDS SPOTLIGHT SERIES WITH GRETA AND SAOIRSE

Jude Dry writing for Indiewire sets the stage for the online film source to talk to Oscar nominees Greta Gerwig (Direction, Original Screenplay) and Saoirse Ronan (Best Actress) about the five time nominated film (including Best Picture) and TFF #44 favorite Lady Bird.

You can access that video and the accompanying story at Indiewire here.

A FANTASTIC RECEPTION FOR A FANTASTIC WOMAN

Sebastian Lelio's A Fantastic Woman was highlighted steadily this past week.  The Oscar nominee for Best Foreign Language Film, and TFF #44 selection, was front and center in stories from Rolling Stone and Indiewire.

The Rolling Stone story is here.

The Indiewire story is here.

That's a wrap for MTFB until Thursday.  Hope everyone has a good week!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Early Oscar Predictions for Supporting Acting and Screenplays / Variety Assesses Oscar's Best Picture Nominees / Indiewire Talks to Sebastian Lelio

Welcome to February and Michael's Telluride Film Blog.

THE EARLY MTFB/FAC PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING AND SCREENPLAYS

As we get down to just a month-ish left before the 90th Academy Awards, here's a look at where I think these four major categories are  at the moment.  I have the competitors ranked from most likely winner to least likely.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Allison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
3) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
4) Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World
5) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) Lady Bird
4) The Big Sick
5) The Shape of Water

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Molly's Game
3) Mudbound
4) Logan
5) The Disaster Artist

VARIETY ASSESSES OSCAR'S BEST PICTURE NOMINEES

In my last post I linked to an Indiewire analysis of each of this year's nine Best Picture nominees and their various pathways to a Best Picture win.  Today I'm passing along a Jenelle Riley piece from Variety that examines those nominees in much the same way.  Riley looks at each of the nominees advantages and challenges that they face over the next month.

That piece is linked here.


INDIEWIRE TALKS TO SEBASTIAN LELIO

Recently Indiewire's Eric Kohn sat down and interviewed Sebastian Lelio, the writer/director of the Oscar nominated foreign language film from Chile, A Fantastic Woman.  A Fantastic Woman played TFF #44 last Labor Day and it was the second film of Lelio's career that was featured at Telluride.  In 2013, his Gloria also made the TFF lineup.

A Fantastic Women also won three prizes at last year's Berlin International Film Festival.

Here is that interview from Indiewire.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Telluride in 1985: Re-visiting TFF #12 / The FAC's First Oscar Winners Forecast / EW Profiles Lady Bird / THR and the Paths to Oscar Glory

Welcome back from the last weekend of the first month of 2018.


TELLURIDE IN 1985: RE-VISITING TFF #12

The 12th Telluride Film Festival took place from Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 1985.

TRIBUTES:

Alexander Trauner
Emilio Fernandez
Hanna Schygulla

SHOWS

All he King's Men
Bliss
Chaos
Colonel Redl
Derborence
Desert Hearts
Drums Across the Sea
Dracula
Frida
The Funeral
The Girl with the Hat Box
The Great Wall Is a Great Wall
Harvest
Hidden River
The House on Trubaya Square
Huey Long
In Her Own Time
The Journey of Natty Gann
Les Visiteurs Du Soir
Louie Bluie
Lulu in Berlin
The Marriage of Maria Braun
Mishima: A Life in Four Chapters
The Mystery of Picasso
Nicaragua Was Our Home
Night of the Shooting Stars
One More Spring
The Passion of Joan of Arc
The Pearl
The Rebel
Reed: Insurgent Mexico
Sheer Madness
The Woman Men Yearn For
Yellow Earth

PARTICIPANTS

Klaus Maria Brandauer
Ken Burns
Roger Ebert
Chuck Jones
Helen Shaver
Alice Waters
Terry Zwigoff


THE FAC'S FIRST OSCAR WINNERS FORECAST

Here's a quick look at four major categories and what I perceive as the most to least likely winners in each category on Oscar Night, Mar. 4th.

Best Picture:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Lady Bird
4) Get Out
5) Dunkirk
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Post
9) Darkest Hour

Best Direction

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Greta Gerwig/ Lady Bird
4) Paul Thomas Anderson/Phantom Thread
5) Jordan Peele

Best Actress

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
4) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
5) Meryl Streep/The Post

Best Actor

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
4) Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq.
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

EW PROFILES LADY BIRD

Entertainment Weekly published a profile of Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird this week as Oscar nominations were announced.  The cover photo:

The film received five nominations last Tuesday for Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.

Here's the link to the online version.



THR AND THE PATHS TO OSCAR GLORY

The Hollywood Reporter's Stephen Galloway posted analysis this week about the ways and circumstances for a number of the Best Picture nominees to pay that off with the win for Best Picture on March 4th.

The article includes particularly analysis for TFF #44 films The Shape of Water and Lady Bird with Darkest Hour mentioned...barely.

Here's the link to the Galloway analysis.


That's your MTFB for Monday, Jan. 29, 2018.  I'll have more on Thursday...that'll be in February!


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Oscar Thoughts and Telluride / Oscar Stats / Gold Derby's Early Line

Welcome to Thursday.


OSCAR THOUGHTS AND TELLURIDE

After the dust settles on Tuesday morning (and a couple of corrections after I lost the Best Costume Design nominees for a little while) we found that films that had played at the 44th edition of the Telluride Film Festival had garnered 30 nominations.  That's a far cry from last years total of 42 but still slightly ahead of the average number of nominations (around 28) since I have been tracking the awards season as a part of this space.

The breakdown:

The Shape of Water (13 which led all nominees...by a considerable margin): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Darkest Hour (6): Best Picture, Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.

One nomination each for:

A Fantastic Woman- Foreign Language Film

The Insult-Foreign Language Film

Loveless- Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent-Animated Feature

Faces Places-Documentary Feature

Heroin(e)- Documentary Short

The FAC predictions went 94/122 for 77%...very average for The FAC. 

The FAC nailed some categories going 5 for 5 in Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Original Song, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

I was worst in Live Action and Documentary Short going 2 of 5 in both of those categories.

As is often the case, there were a number of categories where I had an what turned out to be an actual nominee in the first slot beyond my predicted nominees including Meryl Streep for Best Actress, Denzel Washington for Best Actor, Octavia Spencer for Best Supporting Actress and Christopher Plummer in Best Supporting Actor.  Other categories where that was the case were: Best Foreign Language Film, Best Animated Feature, and all three Shorts categories for a total of nine near misses.

I did hit 8/9 in Best Picture with Phantom Thread being where I whiffed.

As a matter of fact, the biggest surprise to me was the strength of Phantom Thread which landed a total of six nominations including Best Picture and Best Direction.  Another surprise, The Post's meager two nominations for Best Picture and Best Actress.

My best work...edging up Darkest Hour to my 9th spot.  My worst...missing Meryl Streep.  Never bet against Streep.

Now it's the wait for March 4th and the actual ceremony.

  OSCAR STATS

In addition to The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour and Lady Bird, there were other films that landed multiple nominations.

Following The Shape of Water, Dunkirk came next with 8 nominations followed by

Three Billboards 7
Phantom Thread 6
Blade Runner 2049 5
Call Me By Your Name, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Get Out each had 4 nominations.

Indiewire has the complete breakdown of nominees per film and per distributor and you can find that post linked here.

Additionally, you can find Indiewire's analysis of the nominees here.


GOLD DERBY'S EARLY LINE

Gold Derby has established their front runners.

The Shape of Water leads for Best Picture with odds of 9/2.  Three Billboards is next and then Lady Bird.

Other early leaders in major categories are:

Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water.  Odds- 3/2
Best Actor: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour. Odds- 3/2
Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards. Odds- 8/5
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards. Odds- 13/8
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney 7/4
Original Screenplay: Lady Bird 12/5
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name 8/5

The complete Gold Derby Odds are here.


That's your Thursday for MTFB.  I'll have more for you on Monday.  Have a great weekend!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

MTFB/FAC Final Oscar Nomination Predictions / The FAC Oscar Nomination Breakdown / Final Oscar Predictions from Experts / Producers Guild Awards The Shape of Water / SAG-AFtra Likes Three Billboards

It's Monday and in less than 24 hours we will know the Oscar nominees for the 90th Edition of the awards...


MTFB/FAC FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Here they are...the final predictions for Oscar nominations.  Historically, The FAC is accurate 75%-80%.  It's also worth noting that in those categories where The FAC misses the sixth predicted nominee pops up  more than half of the time.

Nomination predictions are alphabetical.  "Others" are listed in the order of their probability of displacing one of the predicted nominees.

TFF #44 films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

Call Me By Your Name

Dunkirk

The Florida Project

Get Out

Lady Bird

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Others: (in order of likelihood): Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, The Big Sick, Phantom Thread

BEST DIRECTION

Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
Jordan Peele/Get Out

Others: Steven Spielberg/The Post, Sean Baker/The Florida Project, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game
Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird

Others: Meryl Streep/The Post, Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Michelle Williams/All the Money in the World

BEST ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis/Phantom Thread

James Franco/The Disaster Artist

Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour

Others: Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post, Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
Hong Chau/Downsizing
Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project

Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards

Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water

Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards

Others: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

Others: The Post, Phantom Thread, I, Tonya

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Fantastic Woman
Foxtrot
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square

Others; The Insult, The Wound, Felicitie


ANIMATED FEATURE

The Breadwinner
The Boss Baby
Coco
The Lego Batman Movie
Loving Vincent

Others: Ferdinand, Despicable Me 3, Cars 3

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Faces Places
Icarus
Jane
The Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

Others: City of Ghosts, Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Long Strange Trip


FILM EDITING

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Get Out
Three Billboards
The Shape of Water

Others: The Post, I Tonya, Lady Bird

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Others:Three Billboards, The Post, Call Me By Your Name

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Others: The Post,  I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

COSTUME DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Others: The Post,  I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

MAKEUP AND HAIR

Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder

Others: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Bright, Ghosts in the Shell

ORIGINAL SCORE

Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Post
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Three Billboards

ORIGINAL SONG

The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
Remember Me/ Coco
This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
Stand Up for Something/Marshall
Mighty River/Mudbound

Others: Evermore/Beauty and the Beast, It Ain't Fair/Detroit, Prayers for This World/Cries From Syria

VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
War for the Planet of the Apes

Others: Okja, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Valerian

SOUND EDITING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

Others: Wonder Woman, Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes

SOUND MIXING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

Others: Get Out, Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Dekalb Elementary
Facing Mecca
Lost Face
Watu Wote
Witnesses

Others: My Nephew Emmett, The Silent Child, Eleven O'Clock


ANIMATED SHORT

Cradle
Dear Basketball
In a Heartbeat
Lou
Negative Space

Others: Revolting Rhymes, Life Smartphone, Fox and the Whale


DOCUMENTARY SHORT

116 Cameras
Alone-The New York Times
Edith and Eddie
Heroin(e)
Kayayo-The Living Shopping Baskets

Others: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Ten Meter Tower, Traffic Stop


THE FAC OSCAR NOMINATION BREAKDOWN

If the FAC is 100% accurate tomorrow morning (and it will actually be between 70%-80% accurate if the past is prologue), here are some interesting notes:

TFF #44 films will collect 29 total nominations.

The Shape of Water will lead all nominees with 13: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.  The film could tie La La Land's all time total of 14 or even go to 15 with additional nominations for Octavia Spencer (very possible) and/or Michael Shannon (unlikely).

Darkest Hour (6): Best Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Makeup and Hair.  Don't go to sleep on Darkest Hour's Best Picture chances.  If the BP field extends past eight films, it could slip in.  Strong support in the craft categories and a strong vote from British Academy members could all create enough heat to propel it onto the list.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.  If Lady Bird picks up a sixth nomination expect it to be for Film Editing (not likely) which could signal that it is still very solid contender for BP.  Tracy Letts has a way, way outside shot at Best Supporting Actor.

Other TFF #44 films The FAC says get nominated:

Hong Chau/Best Supporting Actress-Downsizing
Foreign Language Film nominees: A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, Loveless
Loving Vincent/Animated Feature
Faces Places/Documentary Feature
Heroin(e)/Documentary Short


Other films with four or more nominations:

Dunkirk-8
Three Billboards-7
Call Me By Your Name-5
Get Out-5
Blade Runner 2049-4
Mudbound-4
Phantom Thread-4


FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM EXPERTS

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Tapley Predicts the following nominations for TFF #44 films

The Shape of Water (11)- Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Hawkins), Supporting Actor (Jenkins), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Lady Bird (5)- Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (5)- Actor (Oldman), Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Original Score, Production Design

Downsizing (1)- Supporting Actress (Chau)

Loving Vincent (1)- Animated Feature

A Fantastic Woman (1)- Foreign Language Film

The Insult (1)- Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1)- Foreign Language Film

Faces Places (1)- Documentary

Heroin(e) (1)- Documentary Short

Tapley's Telluride total = 28 nominations


Here's his complete set of final Oscar nomination predictions.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

The Shape of Water (12): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay. Film Editing, Cinematography,  Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Visual Effects.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (3): Actor, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair

Downsizing (1): Supporting Actress

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Stone doesn't predict the Short Film categories.

Stone's total predictions for TFF #44 films: 26 nominations


Stone's complete "Predictions Friday" post is here.


Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

The Shape of Water (14): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Costumes, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (4): Actor, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (1) Adapted Screenplay

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

The Insult (1) Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Davis' total predictions for TFF #44 films: 31.

Davis complete final predictions are here.

Scott Feinberg/Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter

The Shape of Water (12):  Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (7): Best Picture, Actor, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Original Score

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Feinberg's total predictions for TFF #44 films: 29.

Feinberg's complete final predictions are here.


Erik Anderson and The Gold Rush Gang/Awards Watch


The Shape of Water (13): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Sound Mixing, Visual Effects

Darkest Hour (6): Actor, Cinematography, Original Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Anderson and crew predict a total of 30 nominations for TFF #44 films.

Their complete predictions are here.

THE PRODUCERS GUILD AWARDS THE SHAPE OF WATER

Ahead of its expected announcement as the leader in number of Oscar nominations tomorrow, The Producers Guild names Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water their Best Picture of the Year on Saturday night.

It's worth noting that The PGA has a preferential ballot like Oscar does.  It;s also worth noting that La La Land won the PGA and led all films in Oscar nominations last year and look how that turned out.

I have linked coverage and analysis from:

Awards Daily

Variety

Indiewire

SAG-AFTRA LIKES THREE BILLBOARDS

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri cleaned up at last night's SAG-AFTRA Awards claiming the Best Ensemble prize along with wins for Frances McDormand for Best Actress and Sam Rockwell for Best Supporting Actor.

Though the voting for Oscar nominations has been over for a few days, this turn of events along with The Shape of Water's win at the PGA on Saturday seems to indicate a two film race between Three Billboards and Shape for the Best Picture Oscar.

Many of the Oscar experts I follow, however are saying that both Get Out and Lady Bird aren't out of the race yet.

I have linked analysis from: 

Kristopher Tapley-Variety/In Contention

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Pete Hammond-Deadline

That's it for this Monday.  I'll post Oscar nominees and a few thoughts tomorrow after the nominees are announced in a SPECIAL POST of Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG