Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
Welcome back from the last weekend of the first month of 2018.
TELLURIDE IN 1985: RE-VISITING TFF #12
The 12th Telluride Film Festival took place from Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 1985.
TRIBUTES:
Alexander Trauner
Emilio Fernandez
Hanna Schygulla
SHOWS
All he King's Men
Bliss
Chaos
Colonel Redl
Derborence
Desert Hearts
Drums Across the Sea
Dracula
Frida
The Funeral
The Girl with the Hat Box
The Great Wall Is a Great Wall
Harvest
Hidden River
The House on Trubaya Square
Huey Long
In Her Own Time
The Journey of Natty Gann
Les Visiteurs Du Soir
Louie Bluie
Lulu in Berlin
The Marriage of Maria Braun
Mishima: A Life in Four Chapters
The Mystery of Picasso
Nicaragua Was Our Home
Night of the Shooting Stars
One More Spring
The Passion of Joan of Arc
The Pearl
The Rebel
Reed: Insurgent Mexico
Sheer Madness
The Woman Men Yearn For
Yellow Earth
PARTICIPANTS
Klaus Maria Brandauer
Ken Burns
Roger Ebert
Chuck Jones
Helen Shaver
Alice Waters
Terry Zwigoff
THE FAC'S FIRST OSCAR WINNERS FORECAST
Here's a quick look at four major categories and what I perceive as the most to least likely winners in each category on Oscar Night, Mar. 4th.
Best Picture:
1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Lady Bird
4) Get Out
5) Dunkirk
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Post
9) Darkest Hour
Best Direction
1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Greta Gerwig/ Lady Bird
4) Paul Thomas Anderson/Phantom Thread
5) Jordan Peele
Best Actress
1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
4) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
5) Meryl Streep/The Post
Best Actor
1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
4) Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq.
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out
EW PROFILES LADY BIRD
Entertainment Weekly published a profile of Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird this week as Oscar nominations were announced. The cover photo:
The film received five nominations last Tuesday for Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.
The Hollywood Reporter's Stephen Galloway posted analysis this week about the ways and circumstances for a number of the Best Picture nominees to pay that off with the win for Best Picture on March 4th.
The article includes particularly analysis for TFF #44 films The Shape of Water and Lady Bird with Darkest Hour mentioned...barely.
After the dust settles on Tuesday morning (and a couple of corrections after I lost the Best Costume Design nominees for a little while) we found that films that had played at the 44th edition of the Telluride Film Festival had garnered 30 nominations. That's a far cry from last years total of 42 but still slightly ahead of the average number of nominations (around 28) since I have been tracking the awards season as a part of this space.
The breakdown:
The Shape of Water (13 which led all nominees...by a considerable margin): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.
Darkest Hour (6): Best Picture, Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair.
Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.
One nomination each for:
A Fantastic Woman- Foreign Language Film
The Insult-Foreign Language Film
Loveless- Foreign Language Film
Loving Vincent-Animated Feature
Faces Places-Documentary Feature
Heroin(e)- Documentary Short
The FAC predictions went 94/122 for 77%...very average for The FAC.
The FAC nailed some categories going 5 for 5 in Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Original Song, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.
I was worst in Live Action and Documentary Short going 2 of 5 in both of those categories.
As is often the case, there were a number of categories where I had an what turned out to be an actual nominee in the first slot beyond my predicted nominees including Meryl Streep for Best Actress, Denzel Washington for Best Actor, Octavia Spencer for Best Supporting Actress and Christopher Plummer in Best Supporting Actor. Other categories where that was the case were: Best Foreign Language Film, Best Animated Feature, and all three Shorts categories for a total of nine near misses.
I did hit 8/9 in Best Picture with Phantom Thread being where I whiffed.
As a matter of fact, the biggest surprise to me was the strength of Phantom Thread which landed a total of six nominations including Best Picture and Best Direction. Another surprise, The Post's meager two nominations for Best Picture and Best Actress.
My best work...edging up Darkest Hour to my 9th spot. My worst...missing Meryl Streep. Never bet against Streep.
Now it's the wait for March 4th and the actual ceremony.
OSCAR STATS
In addition to The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour and Lady Bird, there were other films that landed multiple nominations.
Following The Shape of Water, Dunkirk came next with 8 nominations followed by
Three Billboards 7
Phantom Thread 6
Blade Runner 2049 5
Call Me By Your Name, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Get Out each had 4 nominations.
The Shape of Water leads for Best Picture with odds of 9/2. Three Billboards is next and then Lady Bird.
Other early leaders in major categories are:
Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water. Odds- 3/2
Best Actor: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour. Odds- 3/2
Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards. Odds- 8/5
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards. Odds- 13/8
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney 7/4
Original Screenplay: Lady Bird 12/5
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name 8/5
SUNDAY SPECIAL: GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS
Welcome to a special additional post to MTFB. I've put together a set of predictions today for tonight's Golden Globes ceremony from a bunch of the best people in the film awards business. We'll see how this all pans out tonight. TFF #44 films are Bold.
Kristopher Tapley/Variety/InContention
Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Best Actor-Drama-Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist Best Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor-Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Screenplay-Three Billboards
Best Animated Feature-Coco Best Foreign Language Film-First They Killed My Father
Best Original Score-Dunkirk
Best Song-Mighty River/Mudbound
Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Get Out Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water Best Actress-Drama-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco Best Foreign Language Film-First They Killed My Father Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-Mighty River/Mudbound
Best Picture-Drama- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul
Best Actor-Drama-Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Screenplay-Three Billboards
Best Animated Feature-Coco Best Foreign Language Film-First They Killed My Father
Best Original Score-Dunkirk
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco Best Foreign Language Film-First They Killed My Father Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-Remember Me/Coco
Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water Best Actress-Drama-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Best Actor-Drama-Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World
Best Screenplay-Three Billboards
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-The Square Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-Remember Me Coco
Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Get Out Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist Best Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor-Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-The Square Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
Best Picture-Drama-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist Best Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor-Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco Best Foreign Language Film-A Fantastic Woman
Best Original Score-Dunkirk
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water Best Actress-Drama-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Best Actor-Drama-Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist Best Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor-Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco Best Foreign Language Film-A Fantastic Woman
Best Original Score-Phantom Thread
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
Here's the consensus of these eight experts with the number predicting each winner in parentheses:
Best Picture-Drama: The Shape of Water (6), Three Billboards (2)
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy: Lady Bird (6), Get Out (2)
Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water (8)
Best Actress-Drama: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards (5), Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water (3)
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy: Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird (5), Margot Robbie/I, Tonya (2), Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul (1)
Best Actor-Drama: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour (4), Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name (3), Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread (1)
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy: James Franco/The Disaster Artist (8)
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney/I, Tonya (4), Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird (4)
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World (3), Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards (3), Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project (2)
Best Screenplay: Lady Bird (5), Three Billboards (3)
Best Animated Feature: Coco (8)
Best Foreign Language Film: First They Killed My Father (4), A Fantastic Woman (2), The Square (2)
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water (4), Dunkirk (3), Phantom Thread (1)
Best Song: This is Me/The Greatest Showman (4), Remember Me/Coco (2), Mighty River/Mudbound (2)
The experts predict Telluride 2017 films to win anywhere between 3 (Feinberg) to 8 (Stone) Globes. It is possible for TFF #44 films to win in every category except Original Song.
I'll be tweeting (or re-tweeting) results tonight during the Globe broadcast (on Twitter @Gort2). I'll also have a full rundown of the Globe results tomorrow morning.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Welcome to the Monkey House as Kurt Vonnegut said...
END OF YEAR CRITICS LISTS
Both Indiewire and Metacritic this week have posted stories with accumulated data from multiple critics. Here's your review of where TFF #44 films ended up on those lists.
Beginning with Indiewire's poll of over 200 critics.
Best Film: #2-Lady Bird, #6-The Shape of Water (Jordan Peele's Get Out edged out Lady Bird for the top spot)
Director: #3-Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Best Actress: #1-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird, #4-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Best Actor: #5-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Supporting Actress- #1-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Screenplay- #2-Lady Bird
Documentary- #1-Faces/Places
Foreign Language Film: #2 Faces/Places
Cinematography- #4 The Shape of Water
Animated Feature- #3 Loving Vincent
Best Films of 2018 That Have Already Been Seen: #2-The Rider, #3-First Reformed, #5-Lean on Pete
The complete story from Indie wire is here.
Metacritic posted two different stories. The first focused on collating end of the year critics groups accolades, the other collated critics year end top ten lists.
From the collation of critics awards highlighted TFF #44 films as follows:
Top Ten Films:
#2 The Shape of Water
#4 Lady Bird
Director: #1-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water, #3- Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird
Actor- #1 Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Actress- #2-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water, #3-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Supporting Actor- #3-Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
Supporting Actress- #1- Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Screenplay- #2-Lady Bird, #7- The Shape of Water
Cinematography- #3-The Shape of Water
Film Editing- #3-The Shape of Water
Foreign Language Film- #3 First They Killed My Father
Documentary- #2- Faces/Places
Animated Feature- #2- Loving Vincent
Errol Morris spoke recently with Variety about his multi-part CIA docudrama Wormwood which bowed over Labor Day weekend at Telluride. Wormwood is now available for streaming on Netflix.
THE FAC UPDATES: PICTURE, DIRECTOR, ACTRESS AND ACTOR
Lots of movement in terms of Oscar predictions has occurred as a result of various groups announcing their end of the year film superlatives so I thought it would be a good time to update The Film Awards Clearinghouse charts for the four major categories. As always, the films that played TFF #44 are Bold.
BEST PICTURE
My last Best Pic update was on Nov. 23rd. Here's what I posted then:
1) Dunkirk 2) The Shape of Water
3) Three Billboards
4) Get Out 5) Darkest Hour
6) Call Me By Your Name
7) The Post 8) Lady Bird
Others: The Florida Project, Mudbound, I Tonya
Comments: Get Out, Three Billboards, The Post and Lady Bird seem to have some wind at their backs. Darkest Hour and The Florida Project feel like they're losing some steam.
And here's the updates Best Picture chart after announcements from the NBR, AFI, New York and Los Angeles critics, Critics Choice, SAG-AFTRA and Golden Globes:
1) Lady Bird
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) The Post
5) Dunkirk 6) The Shape of Water
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project
Others: Mudbound, Darkest Hour, The Big Sick
Comments: Nothing epitomizes the mercurial and uncertain nature of this year's Oscar race than how the Best Picture race has been jumbled in the last four weeks. Lady Bird moves from barely being in the top eight to sitting, by the thinnest of margins, at the top spot. Three Billboards and Get Out have stayed relatively solid. Dunkirk seems to be suffering from the entrance of The Post into the race. The Shape of Water also seems to have lost some its mojo.
BEST DIRECTION
Also last update on Nov. 23rd:
1) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk 2) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
3) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
4) Steven Spielberg/The Post
5) Jordan Peele/Get Out
Others: Joe Wright/Darkest Hour, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound
Comments: Nolan, Del Toro and McDonagh all seem solid. After them, though, it's a mess.
And here's the new Director's chart:
1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Steven Spielberg/The Post
4) Jordan Peele/Get Out 5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Others: Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound
Comment: And this shows the continued schizoid Oscar race...The Shape of Water drops in the Best Picture race while Del Toro is at #1 on the director's chart...yeesh. And I am puzzled that we're not seeing more Phantom Thread love for Picture or Director.
BEST ACTRESS
This was last updates on Nov. 27th:
1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Meryl Streep/The Post
4) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
5) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Others: Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel and Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul
Your new set of picks is here:
1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards 2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post 5) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Others: Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes
Comment:What was once regarded as a two actress race (McDormand and Hawkins) is wide open between the top five. Also, for a race that was touted early on as having a multitude of candidates it really is down to seven women.
BEST ACTOR
Also last updated on Nov. 27th:
1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
3) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
4) Tom Hanks/The Post
5) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
Others: James Franco.The Disaster Artist, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq. and Andrew Garfield/Breathe
Comment: Hanks has some serious buzz now that some people have actually seen The Post in screenings.
And the new predictions:
1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
4) Daniel Day Lewis-Phantom Thread
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out
Others: Tom Hanks/The Post, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq., Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
Comment:
CRITICS, GLOBES AND SAG-AFTRA CLUES ?
As we have moved closer and closer to the end of the year a huge swell of awards and critics groups have weighed in with their thoughts about what were the best films in 2017.
I tend to focus on seven organizations: The National Board of Review (NBR), The American Film Institute (AFI), the Broadcast Film Critics Association-Critics Choice(BFCA), the New York Film Critics Circle (NY), the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LA), the Hollywood Foreign Press Association -Golden Globes (GG) and the Screen Actors Guild/American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG) to get a sense of what's going on.
Nineteen different films have been recognized by at least one of these organizations as one of the best films of the year. Here are the top ten:
10) The Disaster Artist (NBR, GG)
7) The Florida Project (NBR, BFCA, AFI)
7) The Big Sick (BFCA, AFI, SAG)
7) The Shape of Water (BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) The Post (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Dunkirk (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
2) Call Me By Your Name (NBR, LA, BFCA, GG, AFI)
2) Get Out (NBR, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
1) Lady Bird (NBR, NY, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
Other films mentioned at least once by any of these seven groups: Baby Driver, Downsizing, Phantom Thread, Logan, Darkest Hour, The Greatest Showman, I Tonya, Mudbound and Wonder Woman.
What does it mean? In terms of Oscar, I don't know what it means. I have been saying for a month now that Lady Bird might be your Best Picture winner. I think that it's the film that no one really hates and that a lot of people either love or, at a minimum, like. I think on a preferential ballot, it gets a bunch of #1 votes but is also on a lot of other ballots at #2 or #3.
The concern I had at Telluride about its chances were that it didn't have enough weight or gravitas. That it just didn't seem to be about a Oscar-y subject matter.
But...it's reception by critics, I think, may give cover to Academy voters who might have had the same reservations. Their reasoning might be that if the critics have decided that it's weighty enough then they can too.
Additionally, in a year (and especially here at the end of the year) when the issue of how women are treated by our society has come to the fore; it feels like Lady Bird might benefit from being a film written and directed by a woman and that is centrally about women.
The other thing going for it seems to be that all of the other serious contenders seem to have at least some drag on them.
Get Out is a genre horror film, at least to some.
Some are uncomfortable with Three Billboards' treatment of racism.
Call Me By Your Name my suffer from following a year when Moonlight won.
Dunkirk seems like a long time ago and is a directors triumph but doesn't look like any acting performance is going to be recognized (maybe Rylance, but even that idea has faded) and that feels like a problem.
The Shape of Water doesn't appeal to everyone...witness its exclusion from NBR and SAG-AFTRA.
The Post might be in the strongest position to challenge for the top spot at this point.
I don't think anyone thinks that The Big Sick or The Disaster Artist are likely contenders for Best Picture.
And, for whatever reason, maybe the lateness of screenings, Phantom Thread hasn't yet many waves in terms of a Best Picture nomination.
As to The Florida Project, I thought after its reception at Cannes that IT would be the big play for A24 in the Best Picture race but Lady Bird's ascendancy seems to have moved The Florida Project into the second tier of BP contenders.
It will be interesting to see what the DGA, PGA, WGA and Globes Awards ceremony have to tell us in January.
DOWN TO NINE
The Academy of Motion Pictures has announced the short list of nine foreign language films still in contention for the Oscar in that category. They are:
A Fantastic Woman/Chile
In the Fade/Germany
On Body and Soul/Hungary
Foxtrot/Israel
The Insult/Lebanon
Loveless/Russia
Felicite/Senegal
The Wound/South Africa
The Square/Sweden
Four of the nine played TFF #44: A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, The Insult and Loveless.
Surprises were the exclusion of Angelina Jolie's First They Killed My Father and Cannes favorite BPM.
That's your MTFB for this Monday. I'll have more should you check back in on Thursday...from an unusual locale...
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
SAG-Aftra, the actors guild, named its 25 nominees for outstanding acting for 2017 on Tuesday. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri led the way with four nominations including one for Best Ensemble.
Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird was the TFF #44 front runner with three nominations: Best Ensemble, Lead Actress-Saoirse Ronan and Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf.
Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water gained two nominations: Lead Actress-Sally Hawkins and Supporting Actor-Richard Jenkins
Other TFF #44 films that earned a single nomination were Gary Oldman for Lead Actor in Darkest Hour, Steve Carell for Lead Actor in Battle of the Sexes and Hong Chau for Supporting Actress for Downsizing.
Other Ensemble nominees were: The Big Sick, Get Out and Mudbound.
Complete nominations and analysis are linked here:
Indiewire's Tom Bruggemann posted a story this week at Indiewire that details the process that brought animated feature Loving Vincent to Telluride and the big screen this week.
The film is considered to be a serious contender for an Oscar nomination for Best Animated Feature.
The film details the life of artist Vincent Van Gogh and does so in a film in which all of the frames that make up the film have been hand painted in Van Gogh's style.
Screen International's Tom Grater penned a profile this week on Russian film maker Andrey Zvyagintsev's Loveless. The film is Zvyagintsev's follow up to his 2014 Oscar nominated Leviathan. Loveless is expected to be on the Foreign Language Oscar short list that will be announced soon.
Welcome back from the Thanksgiving weekend...hope you survived your food-induced coma...
UPDATING THE LEAD ACTING OSCAR PREDICTIONS
As we get ready to ring down the curtain on November, here is an update of where The Film Awards Clearinghouse now thinks the Best Actress and Best Actor categories stand.
Our last look at these two categories was on Nov. 2nd.
As always, potential nominees from TFF #44 films are in Bold.
BEST ACTRESS
Here were the standings on Nov. 2nd:
1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards 2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post 5) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Others: Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel
And today's new set of predictions:
1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Meryl Streep/The Post
4) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
5) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Others: Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel and Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul
Comment: It feels like the top four are bunched very tightly and that Emma Stone's chances for a back-to-back Oscar win have all but disappeared.
BEST ACTOR
Here's where the Best Actor race seemed to be three weeks ago:
1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
3) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
4) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
5) Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq.
Others: Steve Carell/Last Flag Flying, Andrew Garfield/Breathe, Tom Hanks/The Post
And here's the most recent FAC predictions for the category:
1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
3) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
4) Tom Hanks/The Post
5) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
Others: James Franco.The Disaster Artist, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq. and Andrew Garfield/Breathe
Comment: Hanks has some serious buzz now that some people have actually seen The Post in screenings.
TFF TIME TRAVEL- A LOOK AT TFF #14
The Telluride Film Festival historical retrospective that has been an on-going project on this site since I began with a throw back to 2005's in April continues today with a look back to the 14th Telluride Film Festival. TFF #14 took place Sept. 4-7, 1987.
Tributes: Don Siegel, Stephen Frears and Tenghiz Abuladze.
SHOWS:
Acting Our Age
Au Revoir Les Enfants
Babette's Feast
Barfly
The Beguiled
The Blot
Brightness
Broken April
Candy Mountain
Confession
A Flame in My Heart
Hail, Hail Rock and Roll
Haiti Dreams of Democracy
The Houses Are Filled with Smoke
A Hungry Feeling: The Life and Death of Brendan Behan
I've Heard the Mermaids Singing
The Magic Toyshop
The Magic Tree
Manon of the Spring
The Marvelous Life of Joan of Arc
Molba
Polyester
Repentance
Sammy and Rosie Get Laid
Sans Soliel
Shy People
They Made Me a Fugitive
This Is Our Home, It Is Not for Sale
Thy Kingdom Come, Thy Will Be Done
The Tingler
Traveling North
Wagonmaster
Walter and June
The Whales of August
Guests:
Harry Carey, Jr.
Taylor Hackford
Ben Johnson
Chuck Jones
Louis Malle
Leonard Maltin
Helen Mirren
Bill Plympton
Barbet Schroeder
John Waters
DOUG JONES IN THE SPOTLIGHT
Actor Doug Jones has been a frequent collaborator with Guillermo Del Toro and that relationship continues with Del Toro's The Shape of Water. Jones plays "The Asset", the focus of Sally Hawkins desire and Michael Shannon's obsession.
Jones was profiled this past week in an article from Jenna Marotta for Indiewire.
Hey kids, this Harry Dean Stanton for an Oscar nomination thing seems to have at least a little traction. A cursory examination of some of the best of Oscar prediction websites have Harry Dean in play. Here's where he is placed by some of those sites:
Awards Daily has HDS at #15
Awards Circuit #15
Scott Feinberg/THR #18
The Film Experience #16
Awards Watch #17
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
We're through the triple threat of Telluride, Venice and Toronto. New York and London loom in October with the AFI Fest set to run in November. It's time to get serious about awards season and the Oscarologists have begun to get serious as well.
And what they have to say is...nobody knows nothin'.
Across the board the pundits and experts are saying that it's the most wide open Best Picture race years. We've had what were perceived as close races recently but those have generally two pony races: 12 Years a Slave and Gravity in 2013 and Birdman/Boyhood in 2014. But this year it seems like a multi-horse race. Then, when you add in the preferential ballot...
So...after consulting some of my usual gurus (OK, not real consultation, I just read their various websites)..Here's what looks to me like what could be some Oscar nominees when they are announced on January 23rd.
Best Picture:
Three films seem to have become consensus picks to be nominees:
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
After that it becomes murky...
Possibles:
Lady Bird
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Last Flag Flying
Call Me By Your Name
The Post
Phantom Thread (or whatever its title will be)
The Florida Project
Others that could play:
Get Out
The Big Sick
Mudbound
Battle of the Sexes
It seems to me that mother!, Downsizing and Wonderstruck are not likely and I'm not sold on The Greatest Showman.
Best Actress: This field is loaded and is going to be fiercely competitive. Just getting a nomination will be difficult. Candidates:
Sally Hawkins/Shape of Water
Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul
Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes
Meryl Streep/The Post
Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel
Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Margot Robbie/I Tonya
Daniela Vega/A Fantastic Woman
Glenn Close/The Wife
Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game
Jennifer Lawrence/mother!
Annette Bening/Film Stars
Carey Mulligan/Mudbound
It feels like Hawkins, Streep and McDormand are probable but this list of 14 is formidable.
Best Actor: A thinner field than the ladies...so says the experts and I tend to agree:
Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour (and your prohibitive favorite I suspect)
Tom Hanks/The Post
Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread/PTA Film
Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
Andrew Garfield/Breathe
Hugh Jackman/The Greatest Showman
Bryan Cranston/Last Flag Flying
And, of course, the dark horse candidate that I'm pushing: Harry Dean Stanton for Lucky.
Best Supporting Actress:
Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Alison Janney/I Tonya
Nicole Kidman/Sacred Deer
Hong Chau/Downsizing
Holly Hunter/Big Sick
Octavia Spencer/Shape of Water
Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
Best Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe/Florida Project
Mark Rylance/Dunkirk
Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins/Shape of Water
Michael Shannon/Shape of Water
Steve Carell/Last Flag Flying
Dustin Hoffman/The Meyerowitz Stories
Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour
At a guess, your winners will be: Dafoe, Metcalf, Oldman, McDormand or Hawkins, Nolan and Dunkirk.
CATCHING UP ON TRAILERS: WONDERSTRUCK, FILM STARS, FACES PLACES
LOOKING AHEAD
It won't surprise any of you that I constantly save articles and posts about upcoming films that I think may be Telluride players at some future fest. I email myself all the time and store them in a file call "Future Telluride".
Every now and then I clean it as events overtake what has been collected. For example, I dumped articles on Friday that I had collected on TFF #44 films Battle of the Sexes, Downsizing, Lady Bird First Reformed and Darkest Hour.
But there are plenty of films that live there too that I think might show at The SHOW and then don't like: Happy End, The Current War, Molly's Game, The Snowman, Our Souls at Night and The Leisure Seeker.
And those were all from 2016 or earlier.
So, you might ask, what's still in there?
Here are the top ten film projects that have a least three articles still living in my "Future Telluride: file:
1) First Man-Damian Chazelle on Neil Armstrong with Ryan Gosling
2) Widows-Steve McQueen with Viola Davis, Carrie Coon
3) The Man Who Killed Don Quixote-Terry Gilliam's passion project for the last million years or so
4) Roma-Alfonso Cuaron
5) This Above All- Focuses on the Westboro Baptist Church
6) Black Money-Maybe a Coen Brothers project
7) The Irishman-Scorsese gets the old band back together: DeNiro, Pacino,Keitel, Pesci
8) The Front Runner-Jason Reitman telling the Gary Hart story with Hugh Jackman as Hart
9) On the Other Side-Carey Mulligan
10) The Death and Life of John F. Donovan-Xavier Dolan...a film many thought might be making the rounds this fall. It's now dated for a January release in Italy...but I wouldn't rule out a play at Berlin or Cannes.
I have 46 other films in the hold.
THE EARTHQUAKE IN MEXICO
I had a couple of different sources point me in the direction of the story of film preservation nin Mexico endangered by the aftermath of the recent earthquake.
First, here's the explanation from Viviana Garcia Besne, director of the Permancia Volunatria Film Archive:
The wire need to be processed though one of the following US banks:
CHASUS33XXX(ABA 021-000-021)JP Morgan Chase BankNew York, NY. USA
BOFAUS6SXXX(ABA 121-000-358)Bank of America NASan Francisco, CA. USA
PNBPUS33XXX(ABA 026-005-092)Wells Fargo BankNew York, NY. USA
SCBLUS33XXX(ABA 026-002-561)Standard Chartered BankNew York, NY. USA
Galaxy 1:30 PM Battle of the Sexes
Galaxy 4:45 PM Lady Bird
Herzog 7:45 PM Battle of the Sexes
CJC 4:30 PM The Other Side of Hope
CJC 7:00 PM Faces Places
SOH 1:00 PM The Rider
SOH 3:30 PM Loveless
SOH 6:15 PM Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
SOH 8:30 PM The Shape of Water
Nugget 1:15 PM Calling Cards
Nugget 7:00 PM First They Killed My Father
Masons 9:15 AM Land of the Free
Masons 1:00 PM First Reformed
Masons 3:30 PM The Venerable W. FREE
Masons 5:45 PM A Fantastic Woman
Masons 8:15 PM Loving Vincent
Le Pierre 9:30 AM Heroism of the Everyday: Heroin(e) + Long Shot FREE
Le Pierre 1:15 PM Arthur Miller: Writer
Le Pierre 3:30 PM Tesnota
Le Pierre 6:00 PM Jamaica Man FREE
Le Pierre 7:45 PM Love, Cecil
Backlot 9:00 AM Hitler’s Hollywood FREE
Backlot 11:20 AM That Summer FREE
Backlot 1:30 PM Cinema Through the Eye of Magnum FREE
Backlot 2:50 PM Filmworker FREE
Backlot 4:50 PM Hitler’s Hollywood FREE
Guillermo Del Toro moved his Q and A outdoors Sunday morning to extend its length.
The Shape of Water- Del Toro's images are breath taking. I know a lot of the town is talking about this film tonight and they should be. Personally, my reaction seems to be more muted than most. I talked to a very experienced reviewer today for a good long while and he loved it. Heaps of praise to Sally Hawkins, Richard Jenkins. I hope this man is in the convo for Supporting actor-great work here.
Battle of the Sexes- Played very, very well to the house. I found myself reacting to the shots in the game/climax...even knowing the outcome. Emma Stone and Steve Carell are in fine form.
Loving Vincent- Gorgeous as expected. Script is relatively staid and that gets in the way. Still, the process is mind-blowing.
RATE THE FILMS PEOPLE
As I finish this up late Sunday night it seems to me that the films earning the most buzz have been: Darkest Hour, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Battle of the Sexes and Hostiles. I can't wait to see how the pros and the peeps respond. So rate the films you saw on a 0-5 scale and send them to me. You can do so using any of the contact methods listed below.
TOMORROW'S PLAN
Looks like I am probably at The Galaxy at 9:00 for Hostiles. Then a quick visit to the picnic and likely closing TFF #44 after catching The Rider at 1:00 at the Opera House. Then we'll almost certainly hit the road for home.
Say hello if you see me.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
The Playlist reported this last week that TFF #43 film, Aisling Walsh's Maudie, has a new trailer. The film features Sally Hawkins as Maud Lewis. It's the true life story of her unlikely romance and her rise as an artist. Ethan Hawke also stars.
As we wait for this week's announcement of the bulk of the program for the 70th Cannes Film Festival, which happens Thursday, we discovered that one film that had been highly anticipated and predicted for a spot will not be playing because it's turning into two films.
Abdellatif Kechiche's Mektoub is Mektoub was thought to be a very likely choice at Thursday's announcement but reorts to the contrary surfaced at the end of last week that the project will now be done as two separate films and as such neither will be ready for a bow next month in France. That also, more than likely, means no Telluride play as well.
Not long ago, on Ebay, I found someone willing to sell some programs from early Telluride Film Fests...so I bit and picked them up. In the correspondence that followed, I discovered that the same individual had a large collection of the programs going back almost to the beginning of TFF. Ultimately we came to and agreement and I now have all but about four or five of the earliest programs.
Through a different, separate source, I have a line on many of those.
As many readers of this blog have noticed, I have had, for some time, a second page that is labeled "Selected TFF History". Additionally, the "History" link on the official website for The Telluride Film Festival, at this point, only has links to programs dating back to 2006.
So...over the next few months, I'm initiating a project to expand the history of the fest here. My plan is to begin with the 2005 program and periodically continue back in reverse order.
I'll be using any number of sources to gather what I can and it is my hope that when we get all the way back to the 70's, I'll be able to have the material to complete the project.
So, here it is...from 2005:
The current history from my page 2:
2005- Guest Director: Don DeLillo
Tribute: Jean and Luc Dardennes
Shows: Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Walk the Line, Cache, Breakfast on Pluto, The Child
Guests: Peter Bogdanovich, Helena Bonham Carter, Aaron Eckhart, Andy Garcia, Michael Haneke, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Neil Jordan, William H. Macy, Leonard Maltin, James Mangold, Bennett Miller, Liev Schreiber, Peter Sellars
The updated history...coming Thursday...
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
