Oscar Update: Adapted Screenplay / Coming Attractions?

 OSCAR UPDATE: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay updated since I last posted this category on  Oct. 8th.  A screenplay's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.

1) Nomadland (1)

2) One Night in Miami (3)

3) The Father (2)

4) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (5)

5) News of the World (4)

6) I'm Thinking of Ending Things (6)

7) Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (-)

8) First Cow (8)***

9) The Personal History of David Copperfield (-)

10) Hillbilly Elegy (7)

Others: The United States vs. Billie Holiday, French Exit, The White Tiger

***First Cow was a selection of TFF #46

COMING ATTRACTIONS?

Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel reported this week that Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig will collaborate again on a film project set up at Netflix.  Ruimy also reports that Adam Driver, who was Oscar nominated for Baumbach's Marriage Story has also been cast.  Ruimy further suggests that the film could be ready toward the end of 2021.

All of those factors suggest a possibility of inclusion for a run as a part of TFF #48.  Lots of connections over the years between these people, Netflix and T-ride.  Put it on your radar!

The World of Reel story in its entirety is linked here.

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TFF #46 Ten Bets #8 (And Bonus Bets) / Gerwig Talks Little Women / World of Reel: T-ride Predix and Non-Fest Films / Teasing The People's Telluride

Friday...Two Weeks...


TFF #46 TEN BETS #8 (AND BONUS BETS)

Toronto announcements with premiere designation uncertainty, Venice scheduling revelations and the appearance of trailers this week all had an effect on the latest Ten Bets for TFF #46. 

Last week's Ten Bets (and Bonus Bets) as well as "other possible" films looked like this:

10) The Aeronauts
9) Ford v. Ferrari
8) The Two Popes
7) Pain and Glory
6) Uncut Gems
5) Judy
4) Motherless Brooklyn
3) Marriage Story
2) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
1) Parasite

Bonus 1) The Truth
Bonus 2) Varda by Agnes
Bonus 3) First Cow
Bonus 4) A Hidden Life
Bonus 5) The Report
Bonus 6) Beanpole
Bonus 7) The Kingmaker

Still on the list of Other Possibilities:

Family Romance LLC, Country Music, The Climb, Little Women, The Good Liar, Untitled Todd Haynes Project (Dry Run/Dark Water), Nomadland, Ad Astra, Molly, Lucy in the Sky, Seberg, The King, Matthias and Maxime, 1917.


After this past week's events...here's your new Ten Bets plus Bonus Bets:

10) The Aeronauts

9) Ford v. Ferrari
8) The Two Popes
7) Judy
6) Pain and Glory

5) Uncut Gems
4) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
3) Motherless Brooklyn
2) Marriage Story
1) Parasite


Bonus Bets:

Bonus 1) Varda by Agnes
Bonus 2) First Cow
Bonus 3) A Hidden Life
Bonus 4) The Report
Bonus 5) The Kingmaker
Bonus 6) The Climb
Bonus 7) Waves
Bonus 8) Lyrebird
Bonus 9) Verdict

The Truth and Beanpole drop out of the Bonus Bets as Toronto lists them both as North American premieres...but...I can tell you that there is some background noise that one or both might still be mis-identified in terms of that premiere status and that there is still some outside possibility that either one of them could still screen at Telluride.

And the remaining list of other possibles gets smaller:

Family Romance LLC, Country Music, Little Women, The Good Liar, Untitled Todd Haynes Project (Dry Run/Dark Water), Nomadland, Ad Astra, Molly, Matthias and Maxime, 1917.

On a couple of side notes...

I'm on the case of another film that could be screening at Telluride but i haven't put together enough info to pass it along.  Suffice to say the title hasn't been mentioned AT ALL in this space as yet and may not if I can't dig up enough corroboration.

And...I've had a bunch of good guesses come my way about Tributes...and no one has landed on any of the recipients as yet.  It's kind of fun.  Of course, I could be wrong.


Last note...there are only a couple of Ten Bets left before The SHOW.  I'll post #9  a week from today and #10 will go up on Wednesday, Aug. 28th...the day before the Telluride lineup is expected to drop.


GERWIG TALKS LITTLE WOMEN

Entertainment Weekly's Mary Sollosi put together that outlet's coverage of the release of the trailer for Greta Gerwig's Little Women.  That story included fresh responses from the director/writer herself focused on the casting of the film.  Indiewire picked up on that and provided an expanded story by Ryan Lattanzio.

I'm still cogitating about the chances that the film could be a surprise at T-ride.  Believe me, it's a far-fetched notion as my background voices range from "it's not playing" to 'it's probably not playing".  Honestly, I haven't run across anyone in the biz who has anything like the same notion that I have.  So, everyone, as I have said before, the chance for a T-ride play for this sits at 2%.

Still, the timing of the trailer and these stories makes me wonder...

The EW story is linked here.

Indiewire's expansion is linked here.



WORLD OF REEL: T-RIDE PREDIX AND NON-FEST FILMS

Jordan Ruimy continues to crank out good stuff about festival season including a new Telluride prediction update on Wednesday that mirrors much of what you see here and who also continues to include kind words about MTFB.  That latest update from World of Reel is linked here.

World of Reel's Theo Fisher also posted a list of ten films that he says are not going to film fests that by and large seem on point to me. 

Of note are Queen and Slim...which I have seen in at least one place as a prediction for Telluride.  Sam Mendes 1917 and Little Women (see what I mean).  Though there is this line in the text of the paragraph about the Gerwig project appearing at a fall festival "is highly unlikely".  But, hey, it's not definitive.

Here's the link to the entire article and list of ten films.



TEASING THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE

For the eighth consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride.  All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".


Report your ratings with any of the following contact methods:


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Does Mill Valley Suggest Sorry We Missed You at Telluride? / Final Trailer for Pain and Glory / Little Women Gets a Trailer

Tuesday...Two Weeks. Three Days...


DOES MILL VALLEY SUGGEST SORRY WE MISSED YOU AT TELLURIDE?

Ken Loach was, once again, a part of Cannes' Palme d'Or competition this year with Sorry We Missed You.  The film has been one that I have kept an eye despite it having remained under the radar since its Cannes debut.  I had it on my 75 Films That Could Play Telluride post from July 22nd.  (That list currently has 15 films that I think are very much Telluride bound.  It also has 22 films that appear to have been eliminated from TFF consideration.)

The film has played a handful of other international film fests but still has no U.S. distributor and hasn't shown up in any announcement from Toronto (yet).

But Loach was a 1993 Telluride tribute recipient and Raining Stones screened.  Ladybird, Ladybird was programmed at TFF #21 the following year so there's a bit of history there.

And this weekend I happen to casually be perusing the early announced films for the Mill Valley Film Fest and happened across Sorry to Miss You announced as a West Coast premiere.  The only other film among the titles Mill Valley included that also has that designation is Agnes Varda's Varda by Agnes, which most of you readers know I have been thinking that it will be a Telluride screening  all summer long.

Consequently, it seems to me from this evidence that Loach's film suddenly looks like a real possibility for TFF #46.  It might even make the updated Ten/Bonus Bets on Friday.

Here's the list from Mill Valley.



FINAL TRAILER FOR PAIN AND GLORY

Indiewire

The Playlist


LITTLE WOMEN GETS A TRAILER

Anton Volkov's Trailer Track and several other outlets revealed yesterday that we should see a trailer for Little Women sometime today.

The Greta Gerwig film is currently not announced for any film fest and the scuttlebutt the last couple of weeks has been that the film could well bypass all the fests.  That seems to be the most likely scenario but I'm still holding onto a shred of hope that it magically makes an appearance at TFF #46 in a couple of weeks.

Word is that the trailer is to drop sometime this morning.

Here's the link to the Trailer Track story.


THE CURRENT TEN BETS AND BONUS BETS:

10) The Aeronauts
9) Ford v. Ferrari
8) The Two Popes
7) Pain and Glory
6) Uncut Gems
5) Judy
4) Motherless Brooklyn
3) Marriage Story
2) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
1) Parasite

Bonus 1) The Truth
Bonus 2) Varda by Agnes
Bonus 3) First Cow
Bonus 4) A Hidden Life
Bonus 5) The Report
Bonus 6) Beanpole
Bonus 7) The Kingmaker


DON'T FORGET TO PLAN TO RATE!

For the eighth consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride.  All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".


Report your ratings with any of the following contact methods:


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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D.A. Pennebaker in 2002 / Motherless Closes New York / Coming Soon: A Trailer for Little Women

It's Monday...


D.A. PENNEBAKER IN 2002

D.A. Pennebaker 1925-2019

(photo via HuffPo)

Legendary documentary film maker D.A. Pennebaker died this past Thursday.  He was 94.  Pennebaker was a 2002 Telluride Film Festival Tribute recipient.  He was also a 1994 Oscar nominee for The War Room, an up close look at the effort to elect Bill Clinton to the presidency, and an honorary Oscar winner for lifetime achievement in 2013.

He was perhaps best known for his 1967 Bob Dylan documentary Don't Look Back which featured this iconic presentation of Dylan's Subterranean Homesick Blues (from YouTube):

Here's the program cover and the entry for Pennebaker's tribute from 2002:

                                  

Pennebaker's career spanned more than six decades with his first credit on IMDb listed as 1953.

I have linked stories about his life and passing here from Indiewire and The Los Angeles Times.  Pennebaker's IMDb entry is linked here.


MOTHERLESS CLOSES NEW YORK

The New York Film Festival (which we expect to announce the majority of its lineup tomorrow) announced that Edward Norton's Motherless Brooklyn will close their fest on Oct. 11th.  The film is listed as a New York premiere which cements what we already thought as a result of the film's International Premiere status for Toronto signaling that it would be screening in Telluride.

In the process of reporting the announcement over the weekend a few  news outlets included the claim that the film would be or would likely be playing Telluride first including: Screen International, Entertainment Weekly.

Here's the actual announcement from The Film Society of New York.



COMING SOON: TRAILER FOR LITTLE WOMEN...AND A WILD THEORY

Anton Volkov of Trailer Track revealed over the weekend that we should soon see a trailer of some sort for Greta Gerwig's Little Women.

Volkov says it's likely in the next couple of weeks; perhaps even this week.  That's linked here from his Trailer Track site.

Most of the scuttlebutt about the film is that it will not play Telluride and perhaps won't play any festival dates at all.  The film is scheduled for release in the U.S. on Dec. 25th.

But...and I am fully admitting that this has NO BASIS IN CLUES OR EVIDENCE...but...

I am morally certain that Gerwig's partner, Noah Baumbach will be screening his Marriage Story at TFF #46.  What if Greta tags along?  What of she just happened to haul a copy of Little Women with her?  It's been test screened.  Linked here is a Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel story from yesterday with anonymous responses to Little Women test screenings.

Wait...wait...there's more.

One of the things I've been asked every year (since anybody thought I kind of knew what I was talking about) was if there were to be any "sneak previews".  My answer for that last five years has been no.  With the decision by Toronto (and other fests since) to adopt their policy for revealing "Honest" premiere statuses, that seemed impossible.  And it hasn't happened since Escobar: Paradise Lost in 2014.

And the comment I have heard the most since then has been pass holders lamenting the loss of that tradition.

So...what if you had a highly anticipated film that was completed (IMDb says Little Women has been in post-production since November of 2018 and there are those test screenings).  What if that film was not going to play any fest...meaning that it would have no premiere designation?

What if the director had had a seemingly glorious relationship with the festival in that past?  Like with a Frances Ha and a Lady Bird?

Little Women as a Sneak?

Look...I think the real chance of the above described scenario is at about 2% but not completely outside the realm of possibility.


And with that reckless speculation/theory...that's your MTFB for the start of this week.

Here's the current Ten Bets with Bonus Bets:


10) The Aeronauts
9) Ford v. Ferrari
8) The Two Popes
7) Pain and Glory
6) Uncut Gems
5) Judy
4) Motherless Brooklyn
3) Marriage Story
2) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
1) Parasite

"Bonus Bets":

Bonus 1) The Truth
Bonus 2) Varda by Agnes
Bonus 3) First Cow
Bonus 4) Family Romance LLC
Bonus 5) Country Music


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Little Women May Be Off the Table / Hollywood Elsewhere Clues? / Looking Back to Look Forward

Welcome back from the weekend...


LITTLE WOMEN MAY BE OFF THE TABLE

I was listening to Indiewire's Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson's ScreenTalk podcast this weekend (they posted it last Friday) as they had teased some discussion of fall films and they do, in fact, talk about the films that they're hearing will be involved in festivals.  The most interesting comment comes from Thompson who suggested that Greta Gerwig's Little Women isn't likely to play any of the festivals.  The pronouncement isn't necessarily definitive but Anne Thompson is going to know more about these things than I am.

If the film doesn't play then that disappoints as I am genuinely curious to see what Gerwig and her crew do with the classic tale.  I have had Little Women on all three of this summer's Ten Bets with it at the #4 spot last Friday but you can expect that will be different when this Friday's Ten Bets goes up.

Among the films listed by Thompson and Kohn that they say are expected to play at some of the fall fests are: Motherless Brooklyn, A Hidden Life, The Report (after its debut at Sundance), A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Lighthouse, Pain and Glory and Jojo Rabbit.

The complete ScreenTalk Podcast is linked here.



HOLLYWOOD ELSEWHERE CLUES?

Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere had a couple of posts Friday and Saturday that, if nothing else, are interesting from a TFF speculative standpoint.

The first post on Friday talked about the Indiewire podcast that I have referenced above.  Wells suggests that he hasn't heard the same notion about Little Women.

Additionally, at the end of that post he rattles a list of films he calls "fall hotties" which include: The Irishman, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Motherless Brooklyn, Fair and Balanced, Harriet, The Last Thing He Wanted, The Laundromat, Torrance, Blackbird, Judy and The Aeronauts.

That post is linked here.

The following day (Saturday) Wells posts a continuation on his meditation entitled "If Wanting These Films to Play Telluride Is Wrong...".   Wells had received a response from someone he refers to as a "friend" suggested that NONE of the films that Wells had listed as his "fall hotties" would play TFF.

If true, that would nuke some titles that I have been thinking could/would be TFF bound most notably Motherless Brooklyn, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Judy.

Wells takes exception to the blanket characterization but who knows?

Further, Wells' source suggests that Netflix will probably have a couple of films at Telluride that Wells doesn't include on his "fall hotties" list.  By process of elimination the likely films would be Fernando Meirelles The Pope and the still untitled Noah Baumbach project.

Wells' Saturday post is linked here.



LOOKING BACK TO LOOK FORWARD

I have been spooking around my "Future Telluride" file lately.  That's the folder where I save articles about films when they're announced that feel like something I should keep an eye on as potential Telluride players in their future.

For hoots, this morning I took a quick inventory of films that I have in their that seem to be actively possible for TFF #46.  The earliest entry I have in there of a film that might make this year's SHOW is Lucy in the Sky which I put in the folder in May of 2015.

Others in chronological order:

The Irishman
Ad Astra
The Goldfinch
The Glorias: A Life on the Road
Judy
Ema
Bergman Island
Just Mercy
Harriet
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Falling
Blackbird
The Good Liar
Molly
1917
Untitled Todd Haynes Project (Dark Water/Dry Run?)
John Prine: Hello In There
Nomadland
Varda by Agnes
Light of My Life


It'll be fun to see if any and/or how many of these titles actually get announced in a few eeeks for Telluride.


That's the story for this Monday.  I'll have more tomorrow.

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The Distributors 2019: Sony Plus / The Irishman Ping Pong / The Good Liar Has a Trailer

Good Thursday World...


THE DISTRIBUTORS: SONY PLUS

...And by "Sony Plus" I mean their affiliated companies Columbia and TriStar

The Sony Pictures group also includes Sony Pictures Classics, but as it is Sony's indie branch, I have dealt with it separately in an earlier post (June 11th).

Columbia has the U.S. distribution for Greta Gerwig's Little Women and though Columbia has a thin resume with Telluride, it's not invisible having just screened Jason Reitman's The Front Runner and Yann Damange's White Boy Rick last year at TFF #45.  In both cases, the director had previous work at Telluride.  Reitman a lot.

So the Gerwig connection could prove as potent this year after her success at Telluride with Lady Bird (2017- five Oscar nominations including Best Picture).  TFF also loved her as a guest as the star of Noah Baumbach's Frances Ha in 2012.


Meanwhile, the other Sony affiliate that has a film in the discussion for Telluride is Marielle Heller's A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood starring Tom Hanks as  children's television icon Fred Rogers.  Despite zero history between TriStar and TFF, Heller's presence (and perhaps Hanks') makes me think that it could be a consideration.  Last year Heller had a nifty run with Can You Ever Forgive Me? with that film debuting at Telluride and earning three Oscar nominations including one for Melissa McCarthy for Best Actress.

I'm currently putting their chances as:

Little Women 50%
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 40%


Tomorrow, I'll take a look at a bunch of smaller specialty houses that have films in play.


THE IRISHMAN PING PONG

I'd pretty much reached the conclusion and reported that Martin Scorsese's The Irishman was off the books as far as Telluride was concerned and that hasn't changed.  The last couple of days, however, have been a funny back and forth as to whether it has a release date and an Indiewire story that flat says no fall film fests.

First the release date hoody-hoo.  A number of outlets reported on Tuesday that one of the film's producers, Irwin Winkler, was on record as saying that the film would have a Thanksgiving release.  That gave rise to some speculation that the film's visual effects might be done in time for Scorsese to screen it at the New York Film Fest (which has seemed like the natural landing place all along).

But Netflix and Scorsese reps strongly stated that there are still no firm release plans.

I have linked the updated stories about the release date ping pong here from The Playlist and for The Film Stage.

And here is the Anne Thompson story from Indiewire that flat says no Telluride, Venice, Toronto or New York.



THE GOOD LIAR HAS A TRAILER

Starring Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren, Bill Condon's The Good Liar has been on my Telluride radar for a bit.  The film is set for release on Nov. 15th and is being domestically distributed by Warner Bros.

The film has McKellen as a con man and Mirren as his mark but things don't go according to his plans.

New Line Cinema dropped the first trailer for the film yesterday.  Here it is via YouTube:

It looks...good.

Condon is an Oscar winner for writing the screenplay for Gods and Monsters.  He also was nominated for Chicago.


The Good Liar's IMDb page is here.


That's your Thursday MTFB.  More tomorrow including the season's first Ten Bets.


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The Distributors 2019: Neon / Pico Iyer Will Lead Us / First Gaze at Little Women

Good Thursday to all...


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: NEON

Film distribution company NEON has come on like gangbusters in the past couple of years.  Their The B Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography played Telluride in 2016.  NEON also played with Border and The Biggest Little Farm last year.  Additionally NEON ended up as the distributor for the Aretha Franklin documentary Amazing Grace which was expected to play TFF in both 2015 and 2016 but, due to legal issues did not.

So...it's not a lengthy Telluride resume but it is relatively intense of late.  As a matter of fact, their emergence is so recent I didn't even handicap their chances with films last year and as you can see above, they landed two.

Now, as we're assessing the 2019 landscape, NEON seems poised to make a splash again this year as they have acquired two huge titles from Cannes.  Palme d'Or winner Parasite and Best Screenplay winner at Cannes: Portrait of a Lady on Fire.  At the moment, these two films seem to be the only two NEON films with a shot at TFF #46.

I'm bullish on the chances for both films to make it to the 2019 version of The SHOW

Chances...

Parasite 60%
Portrait of a Lady on Fire 60%

More distribution analysis tomorrow.


PICO IYER WILL LEAD US

The Telluride Film Festival officially announced that author Pico Iyer will serve as Guest Director this year.

Here's the text of the official announcement:

BERKELEY, CA – Telluride Film Festival (TFF), presented by National Film Preserve LTD., is proud to announce its 2019 Guest Director, Pico Iyer. The celebrated author is set to select a series of films to present at the 46th Telluride Film Festival running over Labor Day Weekend, August 30 through September 2, 2019.

Festival organizers annually select one of the world’s great film enthusiasts to join them in the creation of the Festival’s program lineup. The Guest Director serves as a key collaborator in the Festival’s programming decisions, bringing new ideas and overlooked films to Telluride. In keeping with Telluride Film Festival tradition, Iyer’s film selections, along with the rest of the Telluride lineup, will be kept secret until Opening Day.

“Pico is a tremendously gifted writer with unrivaled wit,” said TFF Executive Director Julie Huntsinger. “His enthusiasm for film, especially within his writing, has buoyed and enchanted us. It has made working with him to create this year’s Guest Director program a particularly delightful experience. Both Tom Luddy and I are thrilled to have him with us this year.”

Pico Iyer is the author of two novels and thirteen works of non-fiction. His books have been translated into 23 languages and both his 2008 meditation on the XIVth Dalai Lama, The Open Road, and his TED Book, The Art of Stillness, were best sellers across the U.S. They have also made him a Guggenheim Fellow, a Pulitzer Prize nominee and a finalist for the Los Angeles Times Book Prize.

An essayist for Time since 1986, he is a constant contributor to The New York Times, The New York Review of Books, Harper’s and more than 200 other newspapers and magazines worldwide, and he has published introductions to 70 other works.

Iyer has also written many liner-notes for Leonard Cohen, essays for several Criterion Collection DVDs and a screenplay for Miramax. His writing on Malick, Farhadi, Bertolucci, Scorsese and many other filmmakers has appeared all over, and his writing on movie studios from North Korea to Hyderabad has borne out The New Yorker’s assertion that “As a guide to far-flung places, he can hardly be surpassed.”

Born in Oxford, England, in 1957, Iyer was educated at Eton, Oxford and Harvard. This year he’s been serving as Ferris Professor of Journalism at Princeton.

“In the times I’ve been to the Festival I’ve seen as many rich and original films in three days as I get to watch in the next twelve months combined,” said Iyer. “So when Tom and Julie asked if I might be willing to serve as Guest Director this year, I felt as stunned and delighted as if I’d been given the keys to the kingdom. Movies have actually been my secret passion for as long as the Telluride Film Festival has been around. But nobody had intuited this until Tom and Julie, a dream team of sorts, sensed my excitement and offered me a chance to share my enthusiasms and passions with others. The invitation to help choose films for the Festival this year was the most exciting one I can remember receiving; I only hope I can pass on a fraction of the delight that I have found at Telluride to others in this inspiring community.”

Past Guest Directors include Jonathan Lethem, Joshua Oppenheimer, Volker Schlöndorff, Rachel Kushner, Guy Maddin, Caetano Veloso, Michael Ondaatje, Alexander Payne, Salman Rushdie, Peter Bogdanovich, B. Ruby Rich, Phillip Lopate, Errol Morris, Bertrand Tavernier, John Boorman, John Simon, Buck Henry, Laurie Anderson, Stephen Sondheim, G. Cabrera Infante, Peter Sellars, Don DeLillo, J.P. Gorin, Edith Kramer and Slavoj Žižek.

The Guest Director program is sponsored by Turner Classic Movies (TCM). Considered throughout the industry as one of the leading authorities on classic film, the network presents great films, uncut and commercial-free, highlighting the entire spectrum of film history.

FIRST GAZE AT LITTLE WOMEN


Vanity Fair revealed a first look at still photography from Greta Gerwig's highly anticipated adaptation of Louisa Mae Alcott's classic Little Women.

The film stars Meryl Streep, Saoirse Ronan, Emma Watson, Florence Pugh, Timothee Chalamet, Bob Odenkirk and Laura Dern. 

The film is being shepherded by Sony/Columbia nd is due for release on Dec. 25th.

Here's a taste of the visuals from Vanity Fair:

For a view of more of the stills and the article the accompanies them at Vanity Fair click here.

That's the Thursday MTFB.  More tomorrow.


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The Distributors 2019: Sony Pictures Classics / A Look at The Whistlers / Stone's First Assessment

Welcome to this first summer 2019 Tuesday edition of MTFB...



THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: SONY PICTURES CLASSICS

Over the years I've been attending Telluride's Film Festival no other distribution company has placed more films at TFF than Sony Pictures Classics and it really isn't even close.  Look at the SPC/TFF history over the past 16 years:


2018: The White Crow (1)
2017: A Fantastic Woman, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Foxtrot, Loveless, The Rider (5)
2016: The Eagle Huntress, Maudie, Norman, Toni Erdmann (4)
2015: Son of Saul (1)
2014: Foxcatcher, Leviathan, Red Army, Mr. Turner, Wild Tales, Salt of the Earth and Merchants of Doubt (7)
2013: The Invisible Woman, The Lunchbox, The Past, Tim's Vermeer and Jodorowsky's Dune (5)
2012: The Gatekeepers, At Any Price, Rust and Bone, No, Wadjda, Amour (6)
2011: A Dangerous Method, In Darkness, Footnote, A Separation (4)
2010: Incendies, Of Gods and Men, Tamara Drewe, Another Year, The Illusionist, Inside Job (6)
2009: The Last Station, The White Ribbon, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, An Education (5)
2008: Waltz with Bashir, I've Loved You So Long, O'Horten (3)
2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father, Persepolis, The Band's Visit, The Counterfeiters, Steep! (6)
2006: Jindabyne, The Lives of Others, Volver, The Italian (4)
2005: Breakfast on Pluto, Capote, Cache, The Child (4)
2004: Being Julia, House of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, Merchant of Venice, Up and Down, Yes (6)
2003: The Fog of War, My Life Without Me, The Triplets of Belleville, Young Adam (4)


That's 71 films over 16 festivals averaging an astonishing 4.4 films a year.  Last year and 2015 were anomalies with only a single SPC film making the TFF lineup.

When I posted the SPC assessment last summer I only had then  with two possibilities: Capernaum and The Fall of the American Empire.  I listed Capernaum with a 60% chance at TFF and American Empire at 30% and, as you may remember, neither film played The SHOW.

In my defense, I did say in last summer's post that 2018 could be a year wherein SPC might only have a single film at Telluride and they didn't acquire distribution rights to Ralph Fiennes' The White Crow until August 13th, more than two months after I posted the SPC assessment.

This year, SPC looks likely to be back at TFF but probably not at the 4-5 film level.  Right now, they list five films that I think could be in play.  Three of those are films from Cannes plus a documentary and World War II drama.

The Cannes films are Pedro Almodovar's Pain and Glory, Ira Sachs' Frankie and Michael Covino's The Climb.  Both the Almodovar and the Covino films were critically lauded at the French fest last month with Pain and Glory winning Best Actor for Antonio Banderas and The Climb winning a jury award in the Un Certain Regard section.  Frankie did not fare as well with critics or jurors.

As I have written here a few times, Almodovar was a common invitee to TFF in the past but hasn't screened a film there since 2006's Volver.  Perhaps Pain and Glory is the film that returns the Oscar winner to the San Juans.

The other two SPC films are a documentary about the life of musical legend John Prine entitled John Prine: Hello in There and the drama The Song of Names starring Clive Owen and Tim Roth.  SPC acquired The Song of Names in April.

My assessment at the moment is actually that The Climb might be the front runner for SPC's chances to be on the Telluride list.  Here's my best guestimate of the chances for each of the five films listed above to make The SHOW

The Climb 50%
Pain and Glory 40%
Frankie 30%
The Song of Names 30%
John Prine: Hello in There 20%

Thursday's  distribution spotlight will shine on Fox Searchlight.



A LOOK AT THE WHISTLERS

Still from The Whistlers via The Playlist

In 2006 Corneliu Porumboiu screened his Cannes award winning film 12:08 East of Bucharest at the 30th Telluride Film Festival.  He hasn't had a film return since.

That could change this year with his latest Cannes entrant The Whistlers.  IMDb describes the film as a comedy and a crime film.  The story centers on a policeman attempting to spring a crooked businessman from prison complicated by the need to use different languages.

The film played moderately well as a part of the Palme competition lineup at last month's Cannes fest but was not an award winner.

Earlier this week, a new international teaser trailer became available for the film.  Here that is from YouTube:

The Playlist posted an extensive story on the film on May 18th for the film's Cannes debut.  The post include multiple clips and stills from the film.  That Playlist story is linked here.


The Whistlers does not have U.S. distribution at this point.


STONE'S FIRST ASSESSMENT

Sasha Stone, who has been a good friend to me over the years, has her first assessment of the Best Picture landscape for this year at her website Awards Daily.

Sasha also includes as a part of her review Best Pic sentiments from Anne Thompson of Indiewire and Erik Anderson of Awards Watch.

Sasha's list ultimately includes ten films most of which could potentially be a part of the TFF #46 lineup. 

Among the ten films she lands on are: Scorsese's The Irishman, Tarantino's Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Gerwig's Little Women and Heller's A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.

Check out her entire article here.

That's a wrap for this Tuesday.  More on Thursday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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And the Oscar Goes To.... / The Telluride Streak Continues / Better Than Last Year

Good Post-Oscar morning Film Nerds!


AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Here are your winners from the 90th Academy Awards as announced last night (***indicates a missed prediction):

Best Picture: The Shape of Water
Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actor: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Supporting Actress; Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory/Call Me By Your Name
Best Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele/Get Out
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Best Animated Feature: Coco
Best Documentary: Icarus
Best Film Editing: Dunkirk
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049 (Deakins finally wins!)
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
Best Original Song: Remember Me/Coco
Best Makeup/Hair: Darkest Hour
Best Costumes: Phantom Thread
Best Sound Editing Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049***
Best Documentary Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405***
Best Live Action Short: The Silent Child***
Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball

The Shape of Water led the pack with four Oscars: Picture, Director, Original Score and Production Design

Dunkirk had three: Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing

Darkest Hour had two: Actor and Makeup/Hair

Three Billboards had two: Actress and Supporting Actor

Coco had two: Animated Feature and Song

Blade Runner 2049 had two: Cinematography and Visual Effects

TFF #44 films took home seven Oscars for Best Picture, Director, Original Score, Actor, Foreign Language Film, Production Design, Makeup/Hair.


THE TELLURIDE STREAK CONTINUES

Beginning in 2008 with Slumdog Millionaire, nine of the last ten Best Picture winners have come through Telluride.  That run now includes a string of eight in a row.  The Shape of Water's win last night continues the streak:

2008: Slumdog Millionaire
2009: The Hurt Locker (not at TFF)
2010: The King's Speech
2011: The Artist
2012: Argo
2013: 12 Years a Slave
2014: Birdman
2015: Spotlight
2016: Moonlight
2017: The Shape of Water

That may finally mean that we can say that the best indicator/precursor for predicting what will win Best Picture now is a Telluride appearance.  It seems, after this crazy and unpredictable and suspenseful Oscar season that a TFF play is more reliable than almost any other precursor whether that's a guild award or some other awards program.

At least until it isn't.

Undoubtedly, the time will come when some film will win Best Picture that does NOT play Telluride.  That's inevitable and this year seemed like a prime year for that to be true but right this minute, this morning...if I were a film maker, producer, Oscar groomer, whatever...and I wanted my film to be a serious player for the big prize a year from now, I'd be busting my hump to get selected for TFF #45.

One other note:  Last night's win for Del Toro for Best Director and Best Picture was particularly sweet after the Del Toro experience we had, especially that my wife had at the fest last fall.  Again, for those who reached out and busted their buns to help make her meeting the new Oscar winner possible, thank you.  You know who you are and many of you swore me to keep your efforts quiet...so ...no names...but, again...thank you from the depths of my soul.

I'll have more on Thursday...with further thoughts as well as an analysis of TFF #44's impact on Oscar.


BETTER THAN LAST YEAR

Just a quick note that MTFB went 21 of 24 for Oscar predicting last night (after a late change in the Documentary category to Icarus).  As usual, the Shorts portion cratered the night.  I was 1 of 3 for the Shorts and 20 of 21 everywhere else.

And...look out...I'll talk Thursday about the Telluride film ratings we do here with the attendees, professionals and their composite.  It has become a ridiculously reliable bellwether for Oscar.

More on Thursday!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Del Toro Wins the DGA / Indiewire's Awards Spotlight Series with Greta and Saoirse / A Fantastic Reception for A Fantastic Woman

Hello Earthlings...It's Monday...

DEL TORO WINS THE DGA

Guillermo Del Toro's direction for 13 time Oscar nominee The Shape of Water was recognized as the best of 2017 on Saturday night by the Directors Guild of America.  The win makes him the odds on favorite to win the Oscar for Direction and likely boosts Shape's chances to win Best Picture, though of late, it has become surprisingly common for Oscar to split the Directing and Best Picture prizes.

Del Toro joins the other two of the "Three Amigos" Alfonso Cuaron (2013's Gravity) and Alejandro Inarritu (2014's Birdman and 2015's The Revenant)  as winners of the DGA Award.  Both of those directors went on to win the Oscar as well.

Del Toro was named winner in a field that included Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird, Jordan Peele/Get Out (who did win for Best Debut Feature), Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk and Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards.

Analysis and complete winners in all the DGA categories are linked below from:

Indiewire

Gold Derby

Awards Daily

INDIEWIRE'S AWARDS SPOTLIGHT SERIES WITH GRETA AND SAOIRSE

Jude Dry writing for Indiewire sets the stage for the online film source to talk to Oscar nominees Greta Gerwig (Direction, Original Screenplay) and Saoirse Ronan (Best Actress) about the five time nominated film (including Best Picture) and TFF #44 favorite Lady Bird.

You can access that video and the accompanying story at Indiewire here.

A FANTASTIC RECEPTION FOR A FANTASTIC WOMAN

Sebastian Lelio's A Fantastic Woman was highlighted steadily this past week.  The Oscar nominee for Best Foreign Language Film, and TFF #44 selection, was front and center in stories from Rolling Stone and Indiewire.

The Rolling Stone story is here.

The Indiewire story is here.

That's a wrap for MTFB until Thursday.  Hope everyone has a good week!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Telluride in 1985: Re-visiting TFF #12 / The FAC's First Oscar Winners Forecast / EW Profiles Lady Bird / THR and the Paths to Oscar Glory

Welcome back from the last weekend of the first month of 2018.


TELLURIDE IN 1985: RE-VISITING TFF #12

The 12th Telluride Film Festival took place from Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 1985.

TRIBUTES:

Alexander Trauner
Emilio Fernandez
Hanna Schygulla

SHOWS

All he King's Men
Bliss
Chaos
Colonel Redl
Derborence
Desert Hearts
Drums Across the Sea
Dracula
Frida
The Funeral
The Girl with the Hat Box
The Great Wall Is a Great Wall
Harvest
Hidden River
The House on Trubaya Square
Huey Long
In Her Own Time
The Journey of Natty Gann
Les Visiteurs Du Soir
Louie Bluie
Lulu in Berlin
The Marriage of Maria Braun
Mishima: A Life in Four Chapters
The Mystery of Picasso
Nicaragua Was Our Home
Night of the Shooting Stars
One More Spring
The Passion of Joan of Arc
The Pearl
The Rebel
Reed: Insurgent Mexico
Sheer Madness
The Woman Men Yearn For
Yellow Earth

PARTICIPANTS

Klaus Maria Brandauer
Ken Burns
Roger Ebert
Chuck Jones
Helen Shaver
Alice Waters
Terry Zwigoff


THE FAC'S FIRST OSCAR WINNERS FORECAST

Here's a quick look at four major categories and what I perceive as the most to least likely winners in each category on Oscar Night, Mar. 4th.

Best Picture:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Lady Bird
4) Get Out
5) Dunkirk
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Post
9) Darkest Hour

Best Direction

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Greta Gerwig/ Lady Bird
4) Paul Thomas Anderson/Phantom Thread
5) Jordan Peele

Best Actress

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
4) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
5) Meryl Streep/The Post

Best Actor

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
4) Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq.
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

EW PROFILES LADY BIRD

Entertainment Weekly published a profile of Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird this week as Oscar nominations were announced.  The cover photo:

The film received five nominations last Tuesday for Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.

Here's the link to the online version.



THR AND THE PATHS TO OSCAR GLORY

The Hollywood Reporter's Stephen Galloway posted analysis this week about the ways and circumstances for a number of the Best Picture nominees to pay that off with the win for Best Picture on March 4th.

The article includes particularly analysis for TFF #44 films The Shape of Water and Lady Bird with Darkest Hour mentioned...barely.

Here's the link to the Galloway analysis.


That's your MTFB for Monday, Jan. 29, 2018.  I'll have more on Thursday...that'll be in February!


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Oscar Thoughts and Telluride / Oscar Stats / Gold Derby's Early Line

Welcome to Thursday.


OSCAR THOUGHTS AND TELLURIDE

After the dust settles on Tuesday morning (and a couple of corrections after I lost the Best Costume Design nominees for a little while) we found that films that had played at the 44th edition of the Telluride Film Festival had garnered 30 nominations.  That's a far cry from last years total of 42 but still slightly ahead of the average number of nominations (around 28) since I have been tracking the awards season as a part of this space.

The breakdown:

The Shape of Water (13 which led all nominees...by a considerable margin): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Darkest Hour (6): Best Picture, Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.

One nomination each for:

A Fantastic Woman- Foreign Language Film

The Insult-Foreign Language Film

Loveless- Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent-Animated Feature

Faces Places-Documentary Feature

Heroin(e)- Documentary Short

The FAC predictions went 94/122 for 77%...very average for The FAC. 

The FAC nailed some categories going 5 for 5 in Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Original Song, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

I was worst in Live Action and Documentary Short going 2 of 5 in both of those categories.

As is often the case, there were a number of categories where I had an what turned out to be an actual nominee in the first slot beyond my predicted nominees including Meryl Streep for Best Actress, Denzel Washington for Best Actor, Octavia Spencer for Best Supporting Actress and Christopher Plummer in Best Supporting Actor.  Other categories where that was the case were: Best Foreign Language Film, Best Animated Feature, and all three Shorts categories for a total of nine near misses.

I did hit 8/9 in Best Picture with Phantom Thread being where I whiffed.

As a matter of fact, the biggest surprise to me was the strength of Phantom Thread which landed a total of six nominations including Best Picture and Best Direction.  Another surprise, The Post's meager two nominations for Best Picture and Best Actress.

My best work...edging up Darkest Hour to my 9th spot.  My worst...missing Meryl Streep.  Never bet against Streep.

Now it's the wait for March 4th and the actual ceremony.

  OSCAR STATS

In addition to The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour and Lady Bird, there were other films that landed multiple nominations.

Following The Shape of Water, Dunkirk came next with 8 nominations followed by

Three Billboards 7
Phantom Thread 6
Blade Runner 2049 5
Call Me By Your Name, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Get Out each had 4 nominations.

Indiewire has the complete breakdown of nominees per film and per distributor and you can find that post linked here.

Additionally, you can find Indiewire's analysis of the nominees here.


GOLD DERBY'S EARLY LINE

Gold Derby has established their front runners.

The Shape of Water leads for Best Picture with odds of 9/2.  Three Billboards is next and then Lady Bird.

Other early leaders in major categories are:

Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water.  Odds- 3/2
Best Actor: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour. Odds- 3/2
Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards. Odds- 8/5
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards. Odds- 13/8
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney 7/4
Original Screenplay: Lady Bird 12/5
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name 8/5

The complete Gold Derby Odds are here.


That's your Thursday for MTFB.  I'll have more for you on Monday.  Have a great weekend!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The FAC Updates Oscar's Major Categories / The FAC Predicts Under the Line Categories

Welcome back from the weekend.  Hope you had a good one.


THE FAC UPDATES OSCAR'S MAJOR CATEGORIES

With less than ten days left before scar announces its nominees, here are updated predictions in each of the eight "major" categories.  If you don't think Golden Globe results don't alter the perception of the race...maybe re-think.  As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

The last update was on Best Picture was on Dec. 18th and it looked like this:

1) Lady Bird
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) The Post
5) Dunkirk
6) The Shape of Water
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project

Others: Mudbound, Darkest Hour, The Big Sick

And today's update:

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) The Shape of Water
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) The Post
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project

Others: The Big Sick, Darkest Hour, I Tonya


BEST DIRECTION

Last post:

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Steven Spielberg/The Post
4) Jordan Peele/Get Out
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird

Others: Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound

Today's update:

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Get Out/Jordan Peele
4) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird

Others: Steven Spielberg/The Post, Sean Baker/The Florida Project, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name


BEST ACTRESS

Last update was:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post
5) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water

Others: Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes


And today's update:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
5) Meryl Streep/The Post

Others: Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Michelle Williams/All the Money in the World


BEST ACTOR

As of the last update:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
4) Daniel Day Lewis-Phantom Thread
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Others: Tom Hanks/The Post, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq., Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger


And today's update:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
4) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Others: Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post, Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

From the Jan. 1st update:

1) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird

2) Alison Janney/I, Tonya

3) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound

4) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick

5) Hong Chau/Downsizing

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Leslie Manville/The Phantom Thread.

And the newest FAC says:

1) Allison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
5) Hong Chau/Downsizing

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Jan. 1st line:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
4) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

And today's updated line:

1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards

2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project

3) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards

4) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water

5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

From the last update:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Wonderstruck

And today's update says:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Molly's Game
3) Mudbound
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The last posted predictions were:

1) Three Billboards

2) Get Out

3) Lady Bird

4) The Post

5) The Shape of Water

Others: The Big Sick, Phantom Thread, I Tonya

And today's updated list is:

1) Three Billboards

2) Get Out

3) Lady Bird

4) The Shape of Water

5) The Big Sick

Others: The Post, Phantom Thread, I Tonya

THE FAC PREDICTS "UNDER THE LINE" CATEGORIES

10 "under the line categories".

As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Blade Runner 2049
2) Dunkirk
3) The Shape of Water
4) Mudbound
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, Three Billboards, Call Me By Your Name

FILM EDITING

1) Dunkirk
2) The Shape of Water
3) Get Out
4) Three Billboards
5) The Post

Others: Baby Driver, Lady Bird, I, Tonya


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Phantom Thread
2) Beauty and the Beast
3) The Shape of Water
4) Victoria and Abdul
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

COSTUMES

1) Phantom Thread
2) Beauty and the Beast
3) The Shape of Water
4) Victoria and Abdul
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman


MAKEUP AND HAIR

1) Darkest Hour
2) Wonder
3) I, Tonya

Others: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Bright, Ghosts in the Shell


ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Shape of Water
2) Dunkirk
3) The Post
4) Phantom Thread
5) Darkest Hour

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Three Billboards


ORIGINAL SONG

1) Remember Me/Coco
2) Stand Up for Something/Marshall
3) This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
4) The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
5) Mighty River/Mudbound

Others: Evermore/Beauty and the Beast, It Ain't Fair/Detroit, Prayers for This World/Cries for Syria

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) War for the Planet of the Apes
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) The Last Jedi
4) Dunkirk
5) The Shape of Water

Others: Okja, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Valerian

SOUND EDITING

1) Dunkirk
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) Baby Driver
4) The Last Jedi
5) The Shape of Water

Others: Wonder Woman. Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes


SOUND MIXING

1) Dunkirk
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) The Shape of Water 
4) The Last Jedi
5) Baby Driver

Others: Get Out, Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes


If the FAC is 100% accurate TFF #44 films would earn 25 nominations from these 18 categories.

The Shape of Water-13
Darkest Hour-6
Lady Bird-5
Downsizing-1

On Thursday, I'll take a look at the remaining 6 categories: FOreign Language, Animated Feature, Doc Feature and the three Shorts categories.


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