Venice Thoughts / Neglia on Cannes and Telluride / A Look at Del Toro's Frankenstein / Interesting Comment to the Blog

VENICE THOUGHTS

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel posted a list of  "20 hot festival titles this fall" on Saturday.  The context for the list of films is within Ruimy's discussion of the Venice festival and the number of possible American films that could make that lineup.  Many of them are on my TFF #52 "watch list".  

Here's Ruimy's list with what I think are the most serious Telluride possibilities indicated with ***.

After the Hunt (Luca Guadagnino)***

One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)

Untitled WH Thriller (Kathryn Bigelow)

Jay Kelly (Noah Baumbach)***

Caught Stealing (Darren Aronofsky)

Bugonia (Yorgos Lanthimos)***

The Smashing Machine (Benny Safdie)

The Way of the Wind (Terrence Malick)

Father Mother Brother Sister (Jim Jarmusch)

The Ballad of A Small Player (Edward Berger)***

Hamnet (Chloe Zhao)***

Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro)***

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (Kogonada)

Roofman (Derek Cianfrance)

At the Sea (Kornél Mundruczó)

The Drama (Kristofer Borgli)

The Lost Bus (Paul Greengrass)

Deliver Me From Nowhere (Scott Cooper)***

Huntington (John Patton Ford)

Is This Thing On? (Bradley Cooper)***

Here's the link to Jordan's post.

NEGLIA ON CANNES AND TELLURIDE

Matt Neglia, who heads up Next Best Picture, published via "X" on Friday a list of Cannes films that he thinks could also play Telluride.  It looks like this:

The Chronology Of Water

Die My Love

It Was Just An Accident

Left Handed Girl

The Love That Remains

The Mastermind

My Father’s Shadow

Nouvelle Vague

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Urchin

Young Mothers

 I have frequently mentioned Chronology of Water, Die My Love, It Was Just an Accident (or A Simple Accident), The Love That Remains, The Mastermind, and Young Mothers.  

Post Cannes I have warmed to the notion of Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent for T-ride.

I'm back and forth on Nouvelle Vague.  Linklater has, to the best of my knowledge, never been to The SHOW but with both Nouvelle Vague and Blue Moon...I could see a Linklater double bill and a possible tribute.  

Other films that Matt names, Left Handed Girl, The Father's Shadow and Urchin...we'll see.

I think there could be other Cannes players that make the trip.  Sirat and Eleanor the Great come to mind.  Remember, though, Matt was on the ground in France and probably has a better sense of what's going on as a result.

A LOOK AT DEL TORO'S FRANKENSTEIN

Netflix had what they call TUDUM.  It's their annual sort CinemaCon thing.  Anyway, as a part of that there was a presentation for Guillermo Del Toro's upcoming imagining of Frankenstein.  The film stars Oscar Isaac (as Victor Frankenstein) who was at the TUDUM presentation, as well as Christoph Waltz and Jacob Elordi and Mia Goth.  Netflix dropped a trailer for the film as a part of the event and then very quickly put it up online.  Here it is from YouTube:

I'm thinking Frankenstein could make a visit to TFF owing to Del Toro's success there in 2017 with The Shape of Water and Netflix's usually robust presence at The SHOW.  Del Toro presented The Devil's Backbone at Telluride in 2001.

INTERESTING COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Over the weekend some anonymous person posted a comment to last Thursday's MTFB.  It really caught my attention because it's a poem about me and the blog.  And whoever this is knows their stuff.  I approved the comment and you can find it on the 5/29/25 post.  I've also re-posted it here:

"In Oklahoma classrooms he was once all the rage, A master of drama, debate and stage. Now each Labor Day he ascends to the peak, Where cinephiles gather and the big stars all sneak. With a blog as his weapon, a hunch as his guide, He guesses the films they try hard to hide. Reads gossip like scripture, decodes all the lines.

The SHOW bosses in Berkeley grit teeth in dismay, As his summer "BEST BETS" always steal the day. But Michael just shrugs, lets critics all chatter-- To him it's just the puzzle that truly must matter. So let's raise a toast, with blog posts in hand, To the Teacher who does what few understand."

Thanks to the unknown author.

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LATE BREAKING: TFF CHOSES BARRY JENKINS AS 2021 GUEST DIRECTOR / Little Late and a Little Short / This and That

LATE BREAKING: TFF CHOSES BARRY JENKINS AS 2021 GUEST DIRECTOR

From the TFF press release:

Los Angeles, CA – Telluride Film Festival, presented by National Film Preserve LTD., is proud to announce Academy Award-winning director Barry Jenkins as its 2021 Guest Director. The celebrated filmmaker is set to select a series of films to present at the 48h Telluride Film Festival running September 2 - 6, 2021. 

Festival organizers annually select one of the world’s great film enthusiasts to join them in the creation of the Festival’s program lineup. The Guest Director serves as a key collaborator in the Festival’s programming decisions, bringing new ideas and overlooked films to Telluride. In keeping with Telluride Film Festival tradition, Jenkins’s film selections, along with the rest of the Telluride lineup, will be kept secret until Opening Day.

“Each year as we think about who a good Guest Director would be, Tom and I weigh different factors,” said executive director Julie Huntsinger. “Many are based in the intellectual realm: film knowledge, appreciation and, of course, serious talent. But our recipe always includes something more ephemeral – something that has to do with the quality of the human heart. Rare is the person who exceeds on each of these criteria. Barry Jenkins checks every box and more. We feel lucky and a little incredulous that our long-time friend and very talented colleague has agreed to join us as Guest Director this year. The whole world knows of Barry’s gifts, and we’re thrilled that he is taking the time to share the films he loves in a place with the people who love him dearly.”

Academy Award winner Barry Jenkins’ feature film debut, MEDICINE FOR MELANCHOLY, was hailed as one of the best films of 2009 by The New York Times and received several Independent Spirit and Gotham Award nominations. In 2019, along with playwright Tarell Alvin McCraney, Jenkins received an Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay for his second feature the Academy Award and Golden Globe winning Best Picture MOONLIGHT. As well as earning eight Academy Award nominations, ten Broadcast Critics Choice Awards nominations, six Golden Globe nominations and four BAFTA nominations, MOONLIGHT won Best Picture and Director at the Gotham Awards and Best International Film by the British Independent Film Awards. In addition to NYFCC and NBR awarding Jenkins Best Director and LAFCA naming him Best Director and the film Best Picture, Jenkins received a DGA Best Director nomination and won the WGA Award for Best Original Screenplay. His third feature, the adaptation of James Baldwin’s IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK went on to receive three Academy Award nominations and won Best Picture at the Independent Spirit Awards. Jenkins also received the Independent Spirit Award for Best Director. Jenkins’ next feature film projects include a follow up to THE LION KING for Walt Disney Studios as well as a biopic of famed choreographer, Alvin Ailey, for Searchlight Pictures.

For television, Jenkins directed an episode in the first season of the Netflix Original Series DEAR WHITE PEOPLE. His most recent project for television is the critically acclaimed adaptation of Pulitzer Prize and National Book Award winner Colson Whitehead’s THE UNDERGROUND RAILROAD for Amazon. Jenkins has directed all episodes and written a number of the screenplays. Upcoming work includes a script based on the life of the first American Female Olympic boxing champ Clarissa “T-Rex” Shields as well as an adaptation of Netflix’s original documentary, VIRUNGA, about the battle to save the Congo’s mountain gorilla population.

My first Telluride was the 29th festival, in 2002. In the time since, I've done many things at the festival both high -- opening the Werner Herzog Cinema as Ringmaster and, of course, the world premiere of Moonlight -- and low (rolling up the floor of the Max at festival's end was a rite of passage). When I was approached about curating the Filmmakers of Tomorrow program many years ago, I was honored to be invited deeper into the inner workings of the festival I loved so dearly; being invited to curate a program as Guest Director is an honor my 2002 self would never imagine. We've all been tucked away in our silos longing for the day when we can safely venture out into communal spaces to once again partake in the rituals of cinema we love so dearly. I never doubted that the show would once again go on. But having a role in what is shown? Yes, that is quite the honor indeed. My thanks to Tom and Julie for bestowing this wonderful gift upon me. I'll see everyone at the SHOW. 

Past Guest Directors include Pico Iyer, Jonathan Lethem, Joshua Oppenheimer, Volker Schlöndorff, Rachel Kushner, Guy Maddin, Caetano Veloso, Michael Ondaatje, Alexander Payne, Salman Rushdie, Peter Bogdanovich, B. Ruby Rich, Phillip Lopate, Errol Morris, Bertrand Tavernier, John Boorman, John Simon, Buck Henry, Laurie Anderson, Stephen Sondheim, G. Cabrera Infante, Peter Sellars, Don DeLillo, J.P. Gorin, Edith Kramer and Slavoj Žižek.

 The Guest Director program is sponsored by Turner Classic Movies (TCM). Considered throughout the industry as one of the leading authorities on classic film, the network presents great films, uncut and commercial-free, highlighting the entire spectrum of film history. 

 For more information about Telluride Film Festival, visit www.telluridefilmfestival.org.

 LITTLE LATE AND A LITTLE SHORT

Pardon the later than normal posting time for todays' MTFB.  Also pardon it's brevity.  I'm working this week as a part of the staff for the National Speech and Debate Association's National Tournament.  High School students from across the nation and even from around the world are competing remotely to be national champions in a number of events.  We'll wrap up on Saturday.

THIS AND THAT

Here's a summary of a couple of items of interest regarding the 48th Telluride Film Festival:

1) Chances that Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch screening at Telluride  seem to have dimmed this week as an alert MTFB fan sent along an article from The Playlist that labels its already announced New York Film Fest screening as its "American Premiere" which would likely indicate a slot at Toronto but not Telluride.  NYFF also claimed that the film will host the U.S. Premiere as a part of a link to their announcement back in late May.  The link to that statement is: https://www.filmlinc.org/nyff2021/announcements/

2) Dune will play Venice...which could mean that it then makes the trip across the Atlantic to bow at Telluride.  Dune's screening date, however, is claimed to set for Sept. 3rd which doesn't preclude a Venice/Telluride double play but makes it a little trickier.  Indiewire is reporting the Sept. 3rd date.

3) Check out some conversations about Muhammad Ali that are a precursor to the Ken Burns' documentary about the late boxing champion that I suspect will part of the TFF #48 lineup.  You can find that link here.

4) Sean Penn's Flag Day won't rise at Telluride.  The film now has an announced release date of August 13th.

5) Here's a conversation featuring Guillermo Del Toro and Bradley Cooper about Nightmare Alley...which is still on  my list of possible TFF #48 titles.  

That's all for today...

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Oscar Winners Predix #4: Lead Acting, Score, Song and Sound / DGA Awards Some Telluride Players / Speaking of Directors / BAFTA Winners

 OSCAR PREDIX #4: LEADING ACTOR, SCORE, SONG AND SOUND

I'm back predicting the winners of this year's Oscars with less than two weeks left until the awards are passed out.  Today I am updating the lead acting categories as well as predicting the winners for Score, Song and Sound for the first time since nominations were announced.  As always TFF #47 film are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman

2) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

3) Frances McDormand/Nomadland

4) Andra Day/The United States vs. Billie Holiday

5) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman

Note: This race is really tight, so it seems, with Viola Davis and Carey Mulligan neck and neck and just a hair in front of Frances McDormand and Andra Day.  I have Mulligan in the top spot but that could change by Oscar morning when I will be posting my final predictions in all 23 categories.

BEST ACTOR

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2) Anthony Hopkins/The Father

3) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal

4) Steven Yeun/Minari

5) Gary Oldman/Mank

Note: Boseman stills seems to be the easy choice here but Hopkins BAFTA win yesterday does give one a little bit of a pause.

BEST SCORE

1) Soul

2) Mank

3) Minari

4) News of the World

5) Da 5 Bloods

Note: Soul is a prohibitive favorite.

BEST SONG

1) Speak Now/One Night in Miami

2) Io Si (Seen)/The Life Ahead

3) Fight for You/Judas and the Black Messiah

4) Husavik/Eurovision 

5) Hear My Voice/The Trial of the Chicago 7

Note: A fairly competitive category with Speak Now and Io Si (Seen) very close and a win for either Fight for You not out of the question.

BEST SOUND

1) Sound of Metal

2) News of the World

3) Mank

4) Soul

5) Greyhound

Note: Sound of Metal is a prohibitive favorite.

THE DIRECTORS GUILD AWARDS SOME TELLURIDE PLAYERS

The Directors Guild of America named their winners for excellence for 2020/21 and a couple of the big awards went to directors who would have been in Telluride last September had the fest been able to occur.

Chloe Zhao was named Best Director for a feature film for Nomadland and Michael and Gregory Kershaw were named Best Director for The Truffle Hunters.  Both films were listed by the Telluride Film Festival as films that would have played at the 47th edition.

The complete list of winners can be found here at the DGA website.

SPEAKING OF DIRECTORS

Jane Campion (via Variety)

As I was writing about the DGA results, I saw that Variety's Clayton Davis had re-posted an article named "Directors Whose Work We're Excited to See in 2021".  So, here's the f=directors from that list that have been to Telluride before and the projects that we expect to appear before the end of the year:

Andrea Arnold/Cow

Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

Joel Coen/The Tragedy of MacBeth

Guillermo Del Toro/Nightmare Alley

Tom McCarthy/Stillwater

Denis Villenueve/Dune

Chloe Zhao/The Eternals

The complete list and more is linked here.

BAFTA WINNERS

Nomadland had a really fine night last night at the awards ceremony for the British Academy of Television Arts and Sciences winning four of the organizations Golden Masks.

Chloe Zhao's examination of the wanderers that make up a large community of R.V. dwellers in the American west won Best Picture as well Zhao for Best Director, Frances McDormand for Best Actress and Best Cinematography.

Florian Zeller's The Father also pulled off a major upset and a minor upset.  Anthony Hopkins upset Chadwick Boseman in the Best Actor category while Zeller and Christopher Hampton won Best Adapted Screenplay over Zhao for her Nomadland screenplay.

You can find the complete listing of BAFTA winners here from The Hollywood Reporter.

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Oscar 2020-This and That / Other Oscar Takes: Analysis of What Went Down Sunday Night / An Early Look at Oscar for 2020 Films / Blog Updates

OSCAR 2020-THIS AND THAT

The dizziness from the Best Picture win for Bong Joon-ho's Parasite on Sunday night has begun to subside leaving a little clear-headedness to think about what occurred.

- Are the Oscars changed forever?  Does the diversification of the membership account for Parasite's success?  Maybe.  Perhaps the Oscars became a truly international award on Sunday.  You might argue that the internationalization has been creeping into the Oscar ceremony over the past decade.  Think of the Oscar Best Directors of recent years:

Hazanavicius/The Artist 2011
Lee/Life of Pi 2012
Cuaron/Gravity and Roma 2013 and 2018
Inarritu/Birdman and The Revenant 2014 and 2015
Del Toro/The Shape of Water 2017
and now Bong for Parasite.

Only Damien Chazelle  who won for La La Land (2016) hales from the USA.

It will be interesting to see if this trend continues.

-Parasite became the first film to win both International (or Foreign Language) Feature and Best Picture.

- Fully subtitled, I think it's the first Best Picture for which that is true although a friend of mine pointed out that past winners have included some sub-titling: Slumdog Millionaire, The Godfather films, Dances With Wolves.

- Parasite becomes the first Best Picture/Palme D'or combination winner since Marty in 1955.

- I took a look at how Telluride films have fared over the last decade in terms of total Oscar wins for each year.  Here's how that breaks down:

2019- 8
2018- 6
2017- 7
2016- 13 (this was the year of Moonlight, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Arrival)
2015- 4
2014- 7
2013- 10 (Gravity and 12 Years a Slave)
2012- 5
2011- 7
2010- 7

That's 74 Oscar wins over the decade meaning that TFF films win 7.4 Oscars per year.  That means, thanks to Parasite, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story and Judy, that this year's Oscar haul was better than average.  Best year, as you can see above, was 2016 with 13 , followed by 2013 with 10.  The most meager Oscar year was 2015 with four wins-that was the year of Spotlight.


OTHER OSCAR TAKES: ANALYSIS OF WHAT WENT DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT

In addition to my commentary about Oscar 2020 above I have also included some analysis posted this week from a couple of others.  Here they are:

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Ben Travers/Indiewire

Zack Sharf/Indiewire



AN EARLY LOOK AT OSCAR FOR 2020 FILMS

Photo from IMDb

Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture seemed to be the first up from an Oscar watching website with a rundown of films he thinks we'll be talking about a year from now as Oscar contenders.  There willy, be others coming soon and I'll include some of those early, early looks through the prism of what are films that might land at Telluride for TFF #47.

Among the films that Matt includes:

Aaron Sorkin's The Trial of the Chicago 7- IMDb says that it went into post-production last December.  Distrib: Paramount.  Release date: Sept. 25th

Paul Greengrass' News of the World- in post production last November.  Distrib: Universal.  Release: Dec. 25th.

David Fincher's Mank- in post this month.  Distrib: Netflix.  Release: TBA

Ron Howard's Hillbilly Elegy- in post last August. Distrib: Netflix.  Release November

Denis Villenueve's Dune- in post starting in July, 2019.  Distrib: Warner Bros.  Release: Dec. 18th.

Edgar Wright's Last Night in Soho- in post in August.  Distrib: Focus Features.  Release: Sept. 25th.

Lila Neugebauer's Red, White and Water- in post production in August.  Distrib: A24. Release: TBA

Francis Lee's Ammonite- in post since last April.  Distrib: Neon (coming off of Parasite this year).  Release: TBA

Guillermo Del Toro's Nightmare Alley- currently filming.  Distrib: Searchlight.  Release: TBA.

Chloe Zhao's Nomadland- in post since last March.  Distrib: Searchlight.  Release: TBA

The complete article is linked here including Matt's opening predictions for six major categories.


BLOG UPDATES

A Couple of bits of info.  I have updated the "Unofficial TFF Oscar History" page to reflect what occurred during the just concluded Oscar season.  Additionally, the "Selected TFF History" page has been updated to include the information from TFF #46.  Check those pages out. 

Still to come are the updates to the "Expanded Telluride Film Festival History-Part Two: 1996 to the Present.  I still have to synthesize the material from TFF programs for Fests from 2006-2019.  The links to the official online version of each of those programs are still on that page.



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A Couple of Outside Shots / New Del Toro May Have DiCaprio / Fienne's The White Crow Opens This Weekend

Good Thursday morning to all...

A COUPLE OF OUTSIDE SHOTS

Looks these last few days at two films that I have avoided including as TFF #46 possibilities are Ang Lee's Gemini Man and Robert Eggers The Lighthouse.

However, we got the first trailer for Gemini Man this week (from YouTube):

And Ang Lee has, though not for awhile, had a presence at Telluride and the film is set for release on Oct. 11th.  Paramount has it under its wing and has occasionally landed at TFF (the last time in 2017 with Downsizing and An Inconvenient Sequel).

Also, here's the story on Gemini Man from Indiewire

Also, we got the first still from Robert Eggers The Lighthouse.  It's from A24 which has been involved at Telluride quite a bit over the last five years or so.  Here's the still via Indiewire:

The Lighthouse was announced as one of the competition films in the Cannes sidebar section Director's Fortnight.  Sometimes films from DF make their way to T-ride.

I have linked this story about The Lighthouse from Indiewire.

NEW DEL TORO MAY HAVE DI CAPRIO

(Photo via Rob Latour/Shutterstock/Variety)

Word is buzzing that Oscar winner Leonardo DiCaprio may sign on to an emerging Guillermo Del Toro project currently titled Nightmare Alley.  The film would be a remake of a 1947 film starring Tyrone Power.

Del Toro's play at TFF 44 with The Shape of Water and its win for Best Picture means we'd be wise to keep an eye on its development.

Variety has the details linked here.

FIENNES' THE WHITE CROW OPENS THIS WEEKEND

Sony Pictures Classics reminded us yesterday that the Ralph Fiennes directed film about the life of Rudolf Nuryev, which played TFF #45, opens in New York and Los Angeles this weekend.  The reminder came in the form of an email with a great poster for the film.

Here's a look at the poster:

The White Crow will expand to other parts of the country in the coming weeks.

That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  Thanks for playing.  More will be on its way to you on Monday!

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

And the Oscar Goes To.... / The Telluride Streak Continues / Better Than Last Year

Good Post-Oscar morning Film Nerds!


AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Here are your winners from the 90th Academy Awards as announced last night (***indicates a missed prediction):

Best Picture: The Shape of Water
Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actor: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Supporting Actress; Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory/Call Me By Your Name
Best Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele/Get Out
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Best Animated Feature: Coco
Best Documentary: Icarus
Best Film Editing: Dunkirk
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049 (Deakins finally wins!)
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
Best Original Song: Remember Me/Coco
Best Makeup/Hair: Darkest Hour
Best Costumes: Phantom Thread
Best Sound Editing Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049***
Best Documentary Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405***
Best Live Action Short: The Silent Child***
Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball

The Shape of Water led the pack with four Oscars: Picture, Director, Original Score and Production Design

Dunkirk had three: Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing

Darkest Hour had two: Actor and Makeup/Hair

Three Billboards had two: Actress and Supporting Actor

Coco had two: Animated Feature and Song

Blade Runner 2049 had two: Cinematography and Visual Effects

TFF #44 films took home seven Oscars for Best Picture, Director, Original Score, Actor, Foreign Language Film, Production Design, Makeup/Hair.


THE TELLURIDE STREAK CONTINUES

Beginning in 2008 with Slumdog Millionaire, nine of the last ten Best Picture winners have come through Telluride.  That run now includes a string of eight in a row.  The Shape of Water's win last night continues the streak:

2008: Slumdog Millionaire
2009: The Hurt Locker (not at TFF)
2010: The King's Speech
2011: The Artist
2012: Argo
2013: 12 Years a Slave
2014: Birdman
2015: Spotlight
2016: Moonlight
2017: The Shape of Water

That may finally mean that we can say that the best indicator/precursor for predicting what will win Best Picture now is a Telluride appearance.  It seems, after this crazy and unpredictable and suspenseful Oscar season that a TFF play is more reliable than almost any other precursor whether that's a guild award or some other awards program.

At least until it isn't.

Undoubtedly, the time will come when some film will win Best Picture that does NOT play Telluride.  That's inevitable and this year seemed like a prime year for that to be true but right this minute, this morning...if I were a film maker, producer, Oscar groomer, whatever...and I wanted my film to be a serious player for the big prize a year from now, I'd be busting my hump to get selected for TFF #45.

One other note:  Last night's win for Del Toro for Best Director and Best Picture was particularly sweet after the Del Toro experience we had, especially that my wife had at the fest last fall.  Again, for those who reached out and busted their buns to help make her meeting the new Oscar winner possible, thank you.  You know who you are and many of you swore me to keep your efforts quiet...so ...no names...but, again...thank you from the depths of my soul.

I'll have more on Thursday...with further thoughts as well as an analysis of TFF #44's impact on Oscar.


BETTER THAN LAST YEAR

Just a quick note that MTFB went 21 of 24 for Oscar predicting last night (after a late change in the Documentary category to Icarus).  As usual, the Shorts portion cratered the night.  I was 1 of 3 for the Shorts and 20 of 21 everywhere else.

And...look out...I'll talk Thursday about the Telluride film ratings we do here with the attendees, professionals and their composite.  It has become a ridiculously reliable bellwether for Oscar.

More on Thursday!

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Oscar Predictions Ten Days Out / Future Telluride: Quixote, The Goldfinch and Radioactive

Last Thursday in February my friends...


OSCAR PREDICTIONS TEN DAYS OUT

With a week and a half left before they open the envelopes in L.A. and still a few days left to vote, here are Oscar predictions for the eight major feature film categories at this moment:

BEST PICTURE

1)  The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Dunkirk
4) Get Out
5) Lady Bird
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) Darkest Hour
9) The Post

The top five seem like the only real candidates and their positions are fluid.  We've gotten used to having a two horse race down the finish these past few years:

Moonlight vs. La La Land
Spotlight vs. The Revenant
Birdman vs. Boyhood
12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity

But this year...you can make a reasonable case for any of the top four and Lady Bird still has a path to the big prize.  I'll update these predictions next week but for now, I'm putting the nomination leader and PGA/DGA winner at the top.

The Wrap's Steve Pond wrote about the five films still thought to be in contention.  Here is Pond's article.

BEST ACTRESS

It's Frances McDormand's.  Upset specials: Sally Hawkins or Saoirse Ronan.

BEST ACTOR

Gary Oldman for the win.  Timothee Chalamet is your best chance at a spoiler.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Alison Janney has this sown up in a race that was once perceived as a tight contest with Laurie Metcalf.  If anyone would upset, it would be her.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sam Rockwell with the win in another category that was initially thought to be competitive with Willem Dafoe.

BEST DIRECTION

Guillermo Del Toro is your favorite to win here but it's not a lock. Christopher Nolan is a possible upset.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

No one thinks it's likely that anyone but James Ivory wins for Call Me By Your Name.  Upset special: Aaron Sorkin for Molly's Game.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

An category that is very competitive.  Three Billboards and Get Out are thought to be the favorite with Lady Bird and The Shape of Water with an outside chance.  My call, for the moment: Get Out.


FUTURE TELLURIDE: QUIXOTE, THE GOLDFINCH AND RADIOACTIVE

Three films that appear, at least initially to be potential choices for future TFFs are moving forward.

We have stills from Terry Gilliam's incredibly long gestating passion project, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote.  The film still seems very likely for Cannes and then, perhaps a play at Telluride could be in the offing.  The Playlist put up a new still from the film that has completed filming and is in editing.  As a matter of fact, a rough cut has been screened.

Here's the pic of Jonathan Pryce as Quixote:

The Playlist post is here.

We also saw the first stills from The Goldfinch based on the Donna Tartt novel and under the direction of John Crowley (Brooklyn).  The film is currently scheduled for release on Oct. 11, 2019.

Warner Brothers is distributing and has a solid recent history with films playing at Telluride: Argo, Black Mass, Sully.

Indiewire had a number of shots from the film in a post up earlier this week:

That Indiewire post is here.

And finally, we saw news this week of the next film project from film maker Marjane Satrapi who made waves at Telluride in 2007 with her wonderful animated film Persepolis. 

Variety reported that Amazon has decided to back her next project which will focus on the life of famed scientist Madame Marie Curie.  The film is titled Radioactive.

The film is set to star Rosamund Pike as the trail blazing scientist.  Pike was a guest at Telluride last year with her film Hostiles.

The Variety story is here.


More on Monday including Oscar predictions in more categories.

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Afta the BAFTA / Trailer for The Rider Lands

Good Presidents Day to all...

AFTA THE BAFTA

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts presented the Brit equivalent of the Oscar and Martin McDonagh's Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was the big winner taking Best Picture, Best British Film, Best Actress (Frances McDormand), Best Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell) and Best Original Screenplay.

Guillermo Del Toro won Best Director for The Shape of Water.  Shape also won Best Production Design and Best Original Score. 

Gary Oldman won as Best Actor for Darkest Hour.  That film also won Best Makeup and Hair.  Those two films were the TFF #44 haul for the BAFTAs for 2018 as Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird and Paul McGuigan's Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool both got shut out.


The BAFTAS are the last stop on the pre-Oscar road and as such, is the last chance for films to get a little boost.  It's also our last peek at something that could point to what will happen on Oscar night. 

Oscar voting opens tomorrow and closes on Feb. 27th.  The Oscar ceremony is set for Mar. 4th.

Last year TFF #43 films won eight BAFTAS.  La La Land won five including Best Picture, Manchester by the Sea won two and Arrival won one.

Linked coverage of the BAFTAs is here from:

Variety

The Hollywood Reporter 

Indiewire


The BAFTA results have Oscar predictors all over the map on Best Picture.  It seems like a Three Billboards vs. Shape of Water race but their are still voices whispering Get Out and Dunkirk. 

My Lady Bird theory looks weak now.  The notion that it could win on a preferential ballot was intriguing but you also have to figure that it needed one big guild win or a BAFTA mention or two for that theory to make the grade.

And, of course, if Shape of Water, Lady Bird or Darkest Hour don't win Best Picture, that would break the Telluride string of having every Best Picture play the fest since 2010.  At this point, I think it's about 2 to 1 that the string ends on March 4.

Finally, the acting awards all look locked up: McDormand, Oldman, Janney (who won the Supporting Actress BAFTA for I, Tonya) and Rockwell have swept the precursors and all look like your Oscar winners in a couple of weeks.  I'll have a new set of Oscar predictions on Thursday.


TRAILER FOR THE RIDER

Critical favorite from Cannes and then Telluride, Chloe Zhao's The Rider had a trailer release this week.  The film is nominated for four Independent Spirit Awards including Best Feature and is set for U.S. release on April 13th.

The Rider finished tied for #2 in the TFF #44 MTFB Professionals ratings and #6 in the Composite ratings.

Here's Alex Billington/FirstShowing.net's article that accompanied the release of the trailer from earlier this week.

That's today's MTFB.  More on Thursday...

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The Writers Take the Spotlight / The Wrap Raps with Del Toro (who also has a new gig)

Welcome to Monday, my friends...

THE WRITERS TAKE THE SPOTLIGHT

Writing awards were the name of the game over the weekend as The Writers Guild of America named their best screenplays of the year.  Last Night the WGA named Get Out as Best Original Screenplay and James Ivory's Call Me By Your Name as Best Adapted Screenplay.  

The awards probably signal the Oscar winners in each category and also may portend which film takes home the Best Picture prize on Mar. 4th. as many Oscarologists believe that the win gives Get Out a boost with Oscar voting not set to get under way for another week.

Ivory also won the USC Scripter prize for adapted screenwriting for Call Me By Your Name.

With the WGA and Scripter awards announced that leaves only next week's BAFTA awards as the final precursor/harbinger for this Oscar season.  Oscar final voting will open Feb. 20th and closes a week later.

The Independent Spirit Awards will be announced on Saturday, Mar. 3rd with the Oscar ceremony to occur the following night.

Here's Indiewire's coverage of the USC Scripter Award announcement.

And their coverage of the WGA.

THE WRAP RAPS WITH DEL TORO

Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water is right in the thick of the Oscar Best Picture race with the most nominations of any film (13).  It is considered by serious Oscar watchers as a very real threat to take home the big prize.  As such, Del Toro has been very accessible to media these past few months since Telluride and that has included a recent sit down with The Wrap.

The video is just shy of 30 minutes as Del Toro echoes many of the themes and ideas that audiences hear in T-ride just over five months ago.

You can access the story and video here.

  

One other quick note about Del Toro.  We know that he will not be in Telluride for TFF #45 as we discovered overnight that he has been named to preside over the Venice Film Fest jury.  I could have seen him back over Labor Day in support of Alfonso Cuaron's Roma much like Alejandro Inarritu was in T-ride last year for Del Toro's film.  

Roma is rumored to be a Cannes selection and it wouldn't be a shock to me to see it appear on the TFF #45 lineup.

That's your truncated MTFB for this Monday.  More on Thursday.

Del Toro Wins the DGA / Indiewire's Awards Spotlight Series with Greta and Saoirse / A Fantastic Reception for A Fantastic Woman

Hello Earthlings...It's Monday...

DEL TORO WINS THE DGA

Guillermo Del Toro's direction for 13 time Oscar nominee The Shape of Water was recognized as the best of 2017 on Saturday night by the Directors Guild of America.  The win makes him the odds on favorite to win the Oscar for Direction and likely boosts Shape's chances to win Best Picture, though of late, it has become surprisingly common for Oscar to split the Directing and Best Picture prizes.

Del Toro joins the other two of the "Three Amigos" Alfonso Cuaron (2013's Gravity) and Alejandro Inarritu (2014's Birdman and 2015's The Revenant)  as winners of the DGA Award.  Both of those directors went on to win the Oscar as well.

Del Toro was named winner in a field that included Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird, Jordan Peele/Get Out (who did win for Best Debut Feature), Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk and Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards.

Analysis and complete winners in all the DGA categories are linked below from:

Indiewire

Gold Derby

Awards Daily

INDIEWIRE'S AWARDS SPOTLIGHT SERIES WITH GRETA AND SAOIRSE

Jude Dry writing for Indiewire sets the stage for the online film source to talk to Oscar nominees Greta Gerwig (Direction, Original Screenplay) and Saoirse Ronan (Best Actress) about the five time nominated film (including Best Picture) and TFF #44 favorite Lady Bird.

You can access that video and the accompanying story at Indiewire here.

A FANTASTIC RECEPTION FOR A FANTASTIC WOMAN

Sebastian Lelio's A Fantastic Woman was highlighted steadily this past week.  The Oscar nominee for Best Foreign Language Film, and TFF #44 selection, was front and center in stories from Rolling Stone and Indiewire.

The Rolling Stone story is here.

The Indiewire story is here.

That's a wrap for MTFB until Thursday.  Hope everyone has a good week!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Telluride in 1985: Re-visiting TFF #12 / The FAC's First Oscar Winners Forecast / EW Profiles Lady Bird / THR and the Paths to Oscar Glory

Welcome back from the last weekend of the first month of 2018.


TELLURIDE IN 1985: RE-VISITING TFF #12

The 12th Telluride Film Festival took place from Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 1985.

TRIBUTES:

Alexander Trauner
Emilio Fernandez
Hanna Schygulla

SHOWS

All he King's Men
Bliss
Chaos
Colonel Redl
Derborence
Desert Hearts
Drums Across the Sea
Dracula
Frida
The Funeral
The Girl with the Hat Box
The Great Wall Is a Great Wall
Harvest
Hidden River
The House on Trubaya Square
Huey Long
In Her Own Time
The Journey of Natty Gann
Les Visiteurs Du Soir
Louie Bluie
Lulu in Berlin
The Marriage of Maria Braun
Mishima: A Life in Four Chapters
The Mystery of Picasso
Nicaragua Was Our Home
Night of the Shooting Stars
One More Spring
The Passion of Joan of Arc
The Pearl
The Rebel
Reed: Insurgent Mexico
Sheer Madness
The Woman Men Yearn For
Yellow Earth

PARTICIPANTS

Klaus Maria Brandauer
Ken Burns
Roger Ebert
Chuck Jones
Helen Shaver
Alice Waters
Terry Zwigoff


THE FAC'S FIRST OSCAR WINNERS FORECAST

Here's a quick look at four major categories and what I perceive as the most to least likely winners in each category on Oscar Night, Mar. 4th.

Best Picture:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Lady Bird
4) Get Out
5) Dunkirk
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Post
9) Darkest Hour

Best Direction

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Greta Gerwig/ Lady Bird
4) Paul Thomas Anderson/Phantom Thread
5) Jordan Peele

Best Actress

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
4) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
5) Meryl Streep/The Post

Best Actor

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
4) Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq.
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

EW PROFILES LADY BIRD

Entertainment Weekly published a profile of Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird this week as Oscar nominations were announced.  The cover photo:

The film received five nominations last Tuesday for Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.

Here's the link to the online version.



THR AND THE PATHS TO OSCAR GLORY

The Hollywood Reporter's Stephen Galloway posted analysis this week about the ways and circumstances for a number of the Best Picture nominees to pay that off with the win for Best Picture on March 4th.

The article includes particularly analysis for TFF #44 films The Shape of Water and Lady Bird with Darkest Hour mentioned...barely.

Here's the link to the Galloway analysis.


That's your MTFB for Monday, Jan. 29, 2018.  I'll have more on Thursday...that'll be in February!


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Oscar Thoughts and Telluride / Oscar Stats / Gold Derby's Early Line

Welcome to Thursday.


OSCAR THOUGHTS AND TELLURIDE

After the dust settles on Tuesday morning (and a couple of corrections after I lost the Best Costume Design nominees for a little while) we found that films that had played at the 44th edition of the Telluride Film Festival had garnered 30 nominations.  That's a far cry from last years total of 42 but still slightly ahead of the average number of nominations (around 28) since I have been tracking the awards season as a part of this space.

The breakdown:

The Shape of Water (13 which led all nominees...by a considerable margin): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Darkest Hour (6): Best Picture, Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.

One nomination each for:

A Fantastic Woman- Foreign Language Film

The Insult-Foreign Language Film

Loveless- Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent-Animated Feature

Faces Places-Documentary Feature

Heroin(e)- Documentary Short

The FAC predictions went 94/122 for 77%...very average for The FAC. 

The FAC nailed some categories going 5 for 5 in Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Original Song, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

I was worst in Live Action and Documentary Short going 2 of 5 in both of those categories.

As is often the case, there were a number of categories where I had an what turned out to be an actual nominee in the first slot beyond my predicted nominees including Meryl Streep for Best Actress, Denzel Washington for Best Actor, Octavia Spencer for Best Supporting Actress and Christopher Plummer in Best Supporting Actor.  Other categories where that was the case were: Best Foreign Language Film, Best Animated Feature, and all three Shorts categories for a total of nine near misses.

I did hit 8/9 in Best Picture with Phantom Thread being where I whiffed.

As a matter of fact, the biggest surprise to me was the strength of Phantom Thread which landed a total of six nominations including Best Picture and Best Direction.  Another surprise, The Post's meager two nominations for Best Picture and Best Actress.

My best work...edging up Darkest Hour to my 9th spot.  My worst...missing Meryl Streep.  Never bet against Streep.

Now it's the wait for March 4th and the actual ceremony.

  OSCAR STATS

In addition to The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour and Lady Bird, there were other films that landed multiple nominations.

Following The Shape of Water, Dunkirk came next with 8 nominations followed by

Three Billboards 7
Phantom Thread 6
Blade Runner 2049 5
Call Me By Your Name, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Get Out each had 4 nominations.

Indiewire has the complete breakdown of nominees per film and per distributor and you can find that post linked here.

Additionally, you can find Indiewire's analysis of the nominees here.


GOLD DERBY'S EARLY LINE

Gold Derby has established their front runners.

The Shape of Water leads for Best Picture with odds of 9/2.  Three Billboards is next and then Lady Bird.

Other early leaders in major categories are:

Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water.  Odds- 3/2
Best Actor: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour. Odds- 3/2
Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards. Odds- 8/5
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards. Odds- 13/8
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney 7/4
Original Screenplay: Lady Bird 12/5
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name 8/5

The complete Gold Derby Odds are here.


That's your Thursday for MTFB.  I'll have more for you on Monday.  Have a great weekend!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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BAFTA Nominees and Telluride / More Precursors Today / This Year's Oscar Poster / DGA Doc Noms Include Morris, Burns and Novick

It's Thursday.  It's January.  It's 2018.


BAFTA NOMINEES AND TELLURIDE

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their nominees for excellence in 2017 earlier this week and TFF #44 films snagged 31 of them.  Big TFF #44 players were The Shape of Water with 12, which topped all films and Darkest Hour with nine.  The robust presence of Darkest Hour combined with Gary Oldman's Golden Globe win for Best Actor-Drama has given the Joe Wright film a boost at the opportune moment right in the middle of Oscar voting.

TFF #44 films and their nominations for BAFTA awards were:

The Shape of Water (12): Best Film, Direction, Original Screenplay, Sally Hawkins/Actress, Octavia Spencer/Supporting Actress, Original Music, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects and Costumes.

Darkest Hour (9): Best Film, Best British Film, Gary Oldman/Actor, Kristen Scott Thomas/Supporting Actress. Original Music, Cinematography, Production Design, Makeup/Hair, Costumes.

Lady Bird (3): Original Screenplay, Saoirse Ronan/Actress, Laurie Metcalf/Supporting Actress.

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (3): Adapted Screenplay, Annette Bening/Actress, Jamie Bell/Actor

First They Killed My Father (1): Best Film not in the English Language

Loveless (1): Best Film not in the English Language

An Inconvenient Sequel (1):Documentary

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Film

The complete list of nominees is here from the official BAFTA website.


MORE PRECURSORS TODAY

We have a precursor double whammy today with the announcement of the five directors nominated for excellence by the Directors Guild of America (DGA).  I'm guessing: Del Toro, Nolan, Gerwig, McDonagh and Spielberg.  Peele is also a real possibility.

Meanwhile, The Critic's Choice Awards are announced tonight.  We'll find out which films and individuals the Broadcast Film Critics of America have determined are the best for 2017.  The Critics Choice Awards broadcast will be at 8:00pm ET on The CW Network.

Oscar voting comes to a conclusion tomorrow and the nominees will be revealed early in the morning on Jan. 23rd.


THIS YEAR'S OSCAR POSTER

The poster for the 90th Academy Awards has been unleashed and features host Jimmy Kimmel and a reminder of the conclusion of last year's awards:

DGA DOCUMENTARY NOMINATIONS INCLUDE MORRIS, BURNS AND NOVICK

Although the Directors Guild names their nominees for feature films today, they have already named their five nominees for direction of feature length documentaries.  Among the nominees were two films that played at Telluride last Labor Day.

Errol Morris was nominated for Wormwood and Ken Burns and Lynn Novick were nominated for The Vietnam War.  Other directors were nominated for Icarus, City of Ghosts and Abacus: Small Enough to Jail.

Anne Thompson of Indiewire has the complete rundown here.



That's your Thursday.  I'll have more on Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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