Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
We started with last Thursday's post to transition from predicting the films that would play Telluride to focusing on which TFF #52 films might be players in the 2025-26 awards season. We began with Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and today we look at the Best Picture predictions from Variety's Clayton Davis, senior awards editor. Here are Davis's current top ten picks to get nominated for best Picture (TFF 352 films are in bold and are listed in order of most likely to less likely:
1) Hamnet
2) One Battle after Another
3) Sinners
4) A House of Dynamite
5) Wicked: For Good
6) Sentimental Value
7) Marty Supreme
8) Frankenstein
9) The Secret Agent
10) Bugonia
Other TFF #52 films in the Top Twenty are:
13) It Was Just an Accident
15) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
17) Jay Kelly
So in this scenario five TFF #52 films would be Best Picture nominated which would be a first for that to occur.
From Netflix this morning, the release of a new trailer for Noah Baumbach's Jay Kelly starring George Clooney, Adam Sandler and Laura Dern. Jay Kelly is in theaters on Nov.14th.
We really are getting down to it. Eight more days and the 52nd Telluride Film Festival opens. So here's the penultimate set of "Bets" for what may play at TFF #52. First, a recap of last week's "Bets":
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach
11) Bugonia/Lanthimos
12) The Mastermind/Reichardt
13) Cover-Up/Poitras
14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog
15) Hamlet/Karia
16) Pillion
17) La Grazia
18) Resurrection
19) Nuestra Tierra
20) Blue Moon
Other possibilities: A Private Life, The Young Mother's Home, The Drama, Die My Love, At the Sea, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Bucking Fastard, Megadoc, Train Dreams.
This week' Ten Bets (Plus):
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Bugonia/Lanthimos
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach
11) Tuner/Roher
12) The Mastermind/Reichardt
13) Cover-Up/Poitras
14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog
15) Hamlet/Karia
16) Pillion/Lighton
17) La Grazia/Sorrentino
18) Resurrection/Bi Gan
19) Blue Moon/Linklater
20) A Private Life/Zlotowski
Other possibilities: Secret Documentary with Oscar Isaac, Barrio Triste, The Young Mother's Home, The Drama, Die My Love, At the Sea, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Bucking Fastard, Megadoc, Train Dreams.
The Final Bets will be published next Wednesday in a Special Post!!!
MYSTERY DOC TO PLAY TELLURIDE
I've certainly been bemoaning the fact that Guillermo Del Toro's Frankenstein isn't indicated for Telluride. Toronto has it listed as a North American premiere. But it seems that at least one of members of that cast will make the trek from its Venetian World premiere to Telluride and that is none other than Dr. Frankenstein himself, Oscar Isaac.
How do we know this? Variety had a huge, splashy piece on Frankenstein up yesterday with . The piece includes interview responses from Del Toro, Isaac and Jacob Elordi who plays the monster. Included in the story is this nugget:
"After the Venice gala, Isaac will fly to Telluride to screen a secret documentary that involves him. Then he travels back to Venice for the debut of “In the Hand of Dante,” a mob drama directed by Julian Schnabel."
A secret documentary? Yes, it is. I can't find a peep about it and I spent some time digging.
So, as you'll see above in the Ten Bets section, I've added that to the list of "Possibilities" and I'm very interested to find out what the story is here.
In my last post I had a section describing some disconnects between premiere designations between Toronto and New York. Some of that has been explained.
A friendly reader pointed me toward the Camden International Film Festival which runs the weekend after Telluride so that also means before New York (Sept. 26-Oct. 13) and its lineup explains what seems to be the contradiction between the two film fest's designation. Three films in question will be playing Camden: Nuestra Tierra (Landmarks), With Hasan in Gaza and Evidence. Camden lists Nuestra Tierra and With Hasan in Gaza as U.S. premieres and Evidence as a North American premiere. That clears up what looked like a disconnect between the Toronto and New York designations and means none of those films are likely playing at Telluride.
Meanwhile Sirat, another film with a TIFF/NYFF contradiction has been announced by Fantastic Fest (Sept. 18-25) as a U.S. premiere so the same logic applies and it looks like Sirat is definitively off the TFF#52 list.
That leaves Blue Moon, A Private Life and Barrio Triste as still unexplained TIFF/NYFF contradictory designations. Of the three it feels to me like Blue Moon is the most likely to play Telluride then A Private Life and lastly, Barrio Triste.
WHO COULD BE AT TFF #52?
Hamnet: Chloe Zhao, Paul Mescal, Jesse Buckley, Emily Watson, Joe Alwyn
Sentimental Value: Joachim Trier, Stellan Skarsgard, Rene Reinsve, Elle Fanning
The Ballad of a Small Player: Edward Berger, Colin Farrell, Tilda Swinton
Nouvelle Vague: Richard Linklater, Zoe Deutch
Tuner: Daniel Roher, Dustin Hoffman
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere: Scott Cooper, Jeremy Allen White, Paul Walter Hauser, Jeremy Strong, Stephen Graham (and in a perfect world, the Boss himself)
The History of Sound: Oliver Hermanus, Paul Mescal, Josh O'Connor, Chis Cooper
Jay Kelly: Noah Baumbach, George Clooney, Adam Sandler, Laura Dern, Greta Gerwig
Bugonia: Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons
The Mastermind: Kelly Reichardt, John Magaro, Josh O'Connor, Bill Camp, Hope Davis, Gaby Hoffman
Hamlet: Riz Ahmed, Joe Alwyn, Timothy Spall
Pillion: Henry Lighton, Alexander Skarsgard, Henry Melling
Blue Moon: Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, Andrew Scott, Margaret Qualley, Bobby Canavalle
Secret Documentary: Oscar Isaac
Others from among the "Possibles" list:
Jodie Foster
Jennifer Lawrence
Robert Pattinson
Zendaya
Amy Adams
Anne Hathaway
Kate Mara
Rooney Mara
Orlando Bloom
Joel Edgerton
Felicity Jones
AWARDS WATCH PODCAST IS ALL T-RIDE THIS WEEK
Awards Watch gathered about half a dozen folks who will all be attending TFF for their podcast this week so the focus is all about predicting films and potential Tribute recipients. It's interesting. They've got a title or two that I don't currently have and a slew of guesses about Silver Medallions. Take a listen if you're so inclined:
For the 13th year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com
The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will by Sept. 15th.
I'll compile all of your responses and post those a few days after the festival.
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New info earlier this week from announcements coming from the New York Film Fest and the Toronto International Film Festival inform this week's Ten Bets. New York's Spotlight section announcements seem to confirm that La Grazia and Pillion are headed to Telluride.
What will NOT be playing Telluride as it will World Premiere at New York id the return of Daniel Day-Lewis to film acting in Anemone.
Confusion was created when New York also listed Blue Moon and A Private Life as "New York" premieres as opposed to a "U.S." premiere designation. Much like Landmarks (Nuestra Tierra) last week, that designation puts those film at odds with their "North American" premiere designations from TIFF. Both designations can't be true. Consequently I'll be putting both A Private Life as well as Blue Moon back on the list.
Toronto announced half a dozen new films and dropped their schedule on Tuesday. The six films didn't reveal any Telluride possibilities but did confirm that No Other Choice and The Wizard of the Kremlin are not T-ride players.
By way of recap, here's last week's Ten Bets (Plus):
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach
11) Bugonia/Lanthimos
12) The Mastermind/Reichardt
13) Cover-Up/Poitras
14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog
15) Hamlet/Karia
Other possibilities: Resurrection, Nuestra Tierra, The Young Mother's Home, The Drama, Pillion, Die My Love, Anemone, At the Sea, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, Megadoc, Train Dreams.
And this week's goes like this:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach
11) Bugonia/Lanthimos
12) The Mastermind/Reichardt
13) Cover-Up/Poitras
14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog
15) Hamlet/Karia
16) Pillion
17) La Grazia
18) Resurrection
19) Nuestra Tierra
20) Blue Moon
Other possibilities: A Private Life, The Young Mother's Home, The Drama, Die My Love, At the Sea, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Bucking Fastard, Megadoc, Train Dreams.
NEW YORK SPOTLIGHT CLUES AND CONFUSIONS
Last Tuesday the New York Film Festival revealed their Spotlight section films and those reveals and their premiere designations provide us Telluride watchers with some clues.
First, the bad news... the Daniel Day-Lewis coming-out-of-acting-retirement film Anemone was announced as a NYFF World premiere...meaning no Telluride.
Some good news... from their designations as New York premieres it looks like Pillion and La Grazia are almost certainly Telluride bound. La Grazia is opening Venice so has time to get to Telluride.
Some confusion: Blue Moon and A Private Life were also listed as New York premieres which is a curious designation as those two films were announced by Toronto as Nort American premieres. Both things cannot be true. If the Toronto designation is correct then no Telluride for either film. If the New York designation is trye that would signify a Telluride play as NYFF would almost assuredly have designated them as U.S. premieres if they were not playing Telluride. That's illustrated by the U.S. premiere designation for Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. For now, I'm back to cautious optimism about both films for Labor Day.
Some confirmations... Nouvelle Vague announced as a NY preem confirms for Telluride.
A couple of other notes...documentaries about Martin Scorsese and Anne Meara and Jerry Stiller are labelled World premieres so no Telluride for either. I thought the Scorsese doc was a real possibility.
Early in the week there was quite a bit of scuttlebutt that Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme might be showing up at a "fall fest" after all. There was a good deal of speculation about what fest that might be. With Toronto and New York purportedly done announcing films the likely culprits would be Telluride, New York or AFI.
Now, I was really hoping that might mean a landing at TFF #52 but replying to a query on X I expressed that it was my belief that the odds were 3-1 in New York's favor. That estimate seems to have been born out. According to World of Reel on Wednesday, if it is to happen it will be at NYFF.
FIRST PHOTO FROM HAMNET
We're 99% sure Chloe Zhao's Hamnet will bow at TFF #52. Tuesday we got our first official image from the film that stars Paul Mescal and Jesse Buckley. Here that is:
The IMDb description for Hamnet:
The story of Agnes - the wife of William Shakespeare - as she struggles to come to terms with the loss of her only son, Hamnet. A human and heart-stopping story as the backdrop to the creation of Shakespeare's most famous play, Hamlet.
Hamnet is set for a limited opening on Nov. 27th.
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Just announced this morning after the blog's post time, the New York Film Festival has added Scott Cooper's Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere to its lineup as a Spotlight Gala. Noteworthy is that the language of the press release refers to it as a premiere but does NOT indicate what level of premiere.
I have also been told that the original release may have suggested that it was a World premiere but that has been scrubbed for the current language.
All of this tends to support the notion that the film will, in fact bow initially at Telluride.
Here's the link to the NYFF announcement in its current form:
We haven't heard much about Lynne Ramsay and Die, My Love since Cannes. But now, over the weekend, Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel sourcing from Screen Daily suggests that Ramsay has been re-editing the film since Cannes. Ruimy also reminds us that the same scenario occurred when Ramsay screened We Need to Talk About Kevin at Cannes in 2011 and then worked on further editing it afterwards. Of course that film went on to screen at Telluride.
Ruimy even suggests that a repeat of that scenario is not completely out of the question writing:
"IndieWire’s “Screen Talk” podcast seems to now be hinting that Ramsay went back to the editing room after Cannes to further shape “Die, My Love,” which might potentially explain its absence at the fall fests — although I still wouldn’t rule out a Telluride appearance."
GOLD DERBY OSCAR RANKINGS FOR WHAT WE THINK IS HEADED TO TFF #52
As many of you readers know, when the fest concludes on Sept. 1st and this space will then become focused on the awards season fortunes of the films that make up the TFF #52 lineup. So I took a look at how the experts at Gold Derby had rated some of the films that we think may play T-ride in a few weeks. Here's where they sit:
#3 Sentimental Value
#4 Jay Kelly
#7 Bugonia
#8 Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
#13 It Was Just an Accident
#15 Hamnet
#21 The Ballad of Small Player
#35 The History of Sound
#39 The Mastermind
#47 The Secret Agent
#48 Nouvelle Vague
If the Gold Derby experts are correct TFF #52 would have four films get Oscar nominated for Best Picture.
Lots of information flying around earlier this week from Toronto and New York allows us to clean up the Ten Bets as well as "possibilities". By way of review, here's last week's Ten Bets:
This week's new Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach
Other possibilities: Bugonia, Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, The Drama, Pillion, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, At the Sea, Late Fame, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up, Megadoc, No Other Choice, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Train Dreams.
Now, in light of the week's info...the new Ten Bets (Plus):
This week's new Ten Bets (Plus):
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach
11) Bugonia/Lanthimos
12) The Mastermind/Reichardt
13) Cover-Up/Poitras
14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog
15) Hamlet/Karia
Other possibilities: Resurrection, Nuestra Tierra, The Young Mother's Home, The Drama, Pillion, Die My Love, Anemone, At the Sea, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, Megadoc, Train Dreams.
I was shocked that Blue Moon was announced by Toronto as a North American Premiere. I would have bet actual money that it was going to be at Telluride. I was almost as certain that The Love That Remains would also make it to TFF#52 but it was also announced as a TIFF North American premiere.
Here's the list of films that I had been T-ride watching which got nuked for TFF#52 by announcements earlier this week:
Blue Moon
The Love That Remains
Late Fame
Magellan
Mirrors #3
No Other Choice
Two Prosecutors
The President's Cake
Unidentified
Left-Handed Girl
Orphan
Orwell 2+2=5
Films that moved up the Ten Bets based on this week's information:
The Mastermind
Cover-Up
Hamlet
Resurrection
Landmarks (Nuestra Tierra) is up in the air. New York says it's a NY Premiere. Toronto says it has the North American premiere. If New York is correct means probably Telluride. If Toronto is correct...no Telluride.
VENICE SCHEDULE IS UP
Early this morning the official public schedule for the Venice Film Festival was posted. The schedule appears to confirm that theses films are screening early enough to make it to Colorado:
La Grazia (Opening night film)
From 8/28
Ghost Elephants
Orphan
Bugonia
Jay Kelly
Megadoc
From 8/29
Cover-Up
After the Hunt
From earlier announcements from other fests we believe that Orphan and After the Hunt are off the table for Telluride.
We're also pretty sure that this helps signal that Bugonia, Jay Kelly and Cover-Up are headed to Telluride.
Ghost Elephants...that's Werner Herzog...making me think that it's in the bag for Telluride. Megadoc? I'm not so sure. Also that could be complicated Francis Ford Coppola's health situation.
Four weeks from today we'll see the actual lineup for TFF #52. Until then it's all speculation. So, let's speculate. But first, a recap of last week's Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Bugonia/Lanthimos
9) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10) The History of Sound/Hermanus
Other possibilities: Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, A House of Dynamite, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up.
With some new information over the last week, the new Ten Bets are so:
This week's new Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach
Other possibilities: Bugonia, Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, The Drama, Pillion, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, At the Sea, Late Fame, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up, Megadoc, No Other Choice, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Train Dreams.
Jay Kelly moves into the Ten Bets on the strength of some reporting earlier in the week. It bumps Bugonia. New additions to the "Possibles" include: Pillion, The Drama, At the sea, Late Fame, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Megadoc, No Other Choice, The wizard of the Kremlin and Train Dreams ( I know it played Sundance but maybe it'll be an exception like The Outrun last year).
IS THIS THING OFF?
It sure seems that way as the New York Film Festival announced yesterday that Bradley Cooper's Is This On? was announced as that fest's Closing Night film and will be a World Premiere which means it will not play Telluride or Toronto either for that matter.
It has been a film that I have had high hopes for vis-a-vis TFF #52 but, alas, Nope!
BLUE MOON HAS A TRAILER
Listed currently as a "Possibility" for TFF #52, Richard Linklater's Blue Moon is set for release on Oct. 24th. I've had Blue Moon in earlier iterations of the Ten Bets and still feel pretty good about its chances of making the lineup.
Anyway, Sony Pictures Classics released a trailer for the film on Tuesday. here it is from YouTube:
I liked it.
THE SECRET AGENT AND LEFT-HANDED GIRL GET DATES
Kleber Mendonça Filho's The Secret Agent has been dated for U.S. release. Neon has set a New York roll out for Nov. 26th followed by release in L.A. on Dec. 5th. The Secret Agent was a big winner at Cannes gaining awards for Best Director and Best Actor among the films in competition for the Palme d'Or.
Its description at IMDb is as follows:
In 1977, a technology expert flees from a mysterious past and returns to his hometown of Recife in search of peace. He soon realizes that the city is far from being the refuge he seeks.
Meanwhile...
Netflix announced yesterday that Shih-Ching Tsou's Left-Handed Girl has been dated for a Nov. 14th theatrical release allowing it to meet Academy Awards requirements for Oscar consideration should it be submitted. The film played as a part of Cannes Critics Week and had a healthy Cannes-ratings.org average of 7.74 (8th best overall of all films that played in various sections of Cannes). The film also picked up the Semaine Distribution Prize.
The film was produced, co-written and edited by Oscar winner Sean Baker (who won Oscars for each of those jobs for Anora last year).
Its IMDb description:
A single mother and her two daughters relocate to Taipei to open a night market stall, each navigating the challenges of adapting to their new environment while striving to maintain family unity.
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Well, here we are. We probably know some things with a reasonable degree of certainty at this poinmt after reveals from Toronto, Venice and New York.
After Toronto's Monday announcement we think this is true:
These seven films appear locked into Telluride:
Hamnet
Ballad of a Small Player
It Was Just an Accident
Nouvelle Vague
Sentimental Value
The Secret Agent
Tuner
These are film's from Venice that feel like they might play there and then come over for TFF #52:
La Grazia
Jay Kelly
The Wizard of the Kremlin
House of Dynamite
Bugoina
Orphan
Hand of Dante
Ghost Elephants
Cover-Up
I had After the Hunt on this list right up until yesterday when New York announced it as its Opening Night film as a North American Premiere...so no Telluride.
Other films that seem gone from Telluride consideration:
Sirat
Frankenstein
Eleanor the Great
Other films that could still play Telluride:
Bugonia
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Blue Moon
The Young Mothers' Home
The History of Sound
The Love That Remains
Left-Handed Girl
Pressure
Die, My Love
The Mastermind
The American Revolution
Bucking Fastard
Last week's Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Bugonia/Lanthimos
5) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
6) Blue Moon/Linklater
7) Sirat/Laxe
8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Other possibilities: The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, Pressure, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
This week's new Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Bugonia/Lanthimos
9) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10) The History of Sound/Hermanus
Other possibilities: Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, A House of Dynamite, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up.
Information that will further illuminate what could be at TFF #52:
*Waiting to hear from Toronto as they likely have other titles to add over the next few weeks.
*Waiting to see Venice's schedule.
*Waiting for the rest of New York's lineup.
All in all, I'm feeling pretty good about where this week's "Bets" are.
THIS YEAR'S BARBERA "MYSTERY"
Over the last couple of years Venice Film Fest chief Alberto Barbera has, unwittingly or not, let slip bits and pieces of information that have given away a couple of Telluride titles. Tuesday as he was introducing the Venice lineup we referenced Josh Safdies' Marty Supreme saying that (it) "will screen in the autumn".
Now, we know that Marty Supreme is set for a Dec. 25th release which isn't "autumn". Does that mean Barbera has, again revealed a Telluride play? My guess is no. I think New York seems more likely. I;m not saying that the reference precludes Telluride but NYFF makes more sense as the film is set primarily in NYC and the "autumn" reference matches up with New York's Sept. 26-Oct. 13 time frame better than TFF just two days after the Venetian kickoff.
From distributor Mubi yesterday, a poster for Oliver Hermanus' The History of Sound, currently sitting at #10 on this week's Ten Bets. Word is that a trailer is coming today. I'll try to add that to this post before the end of the day should it be forthcoming. Here's the poster:
MAYBE SOME TV?
@Movielo10274449 posted on X yesterday the notion that Matthew Heineman's The Savant could play Telluride and it makes some sense.
Last year the fest programmed Apple TV+'s and Alfonso Cuaron's Disclaimer starring Cate Blanchett (currently Emmy nommed for the role) and Kevin Kline. The fest ran all seven of the series episodes.
Could this happen again this year with The Savant which is also from Apple+?
Maybe Jessica Chastain who stars in the series will be in town? Please...
You bet your buns! Heineman, as @Movielo10274449 points out has screened his last two projects at T-ride. 2022's Retrograde and 2023's fantastic American Symphony.
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We're creeping up on the time frame for rapid discovery of probable Telluride selections based on information as other major fall film festivals begin to announce their lineups. For Telluride watchers that chiefly means Toronto, Venice and New York. Fantastic Fest and BFI/London can also provide clues.
When those announcements happen they can rapidly change the look of the Ten Bets. It's all about how a fest frames the premiere status for the films that they include. Designations that are key over the next few weeks are:
"World Premiere" which is exactly what it sounds like...some fest is telling you that they will be hosting the very first public screening of a film anywhere. So when Toronto tells you they are "World Premiering" a film that means it won't play Telluride which occurs before TIFF.
Almost all of Venice's titles are World Premieres. The best info from Venice comes when they announce their actual screening schedule. As Venice cranks up a couple of days before TFF starts, films that get scheduled the first three or four days of Venice have time to get to the Colorado Rockies for a portion of TFF.
"International Premiere" which means the first screening outside the films country of origin (though "country of origin" can be a slippery term). This designation can cut both ways in as far as ruling a film in or out of the TFF lineup. For example, an American film the screens at Telluride and then at Toronto could be designated by TIFF as an "International Premiere". When TIFF frames their announcement that way it could be a predictor that the film will play T-ride. On the other hand, if a French film screens at Cannes and is announced as an International Premiere by Toronto, that means it is skipping Telluride.
"North American Premiere": A very useful piece of information for announcements from Toronto or New York as it means no previous play at Telluride.
"Canadian" or "New York" premieres. In each case this kind of "local" premiere designation almost always means a Telluride play....but NOT 100% of the time. You have to remember that Sundance, South by Southwest and Fantastic Fest film titles could also result in the "local" designation for either TIFF or NTFF.
Ultimately all of this explains why changes in the early versions of the Ten Bets are glacial and then become quite dynamic when we begin to see announcements from these other major fests.
All that said, here's a review of last week's Ten Bets for TFF #52:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) Sentimental Value/Trier
5) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
6) Hamnet/Zhao
7) Sirat/Oliver Laxe
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
10) The Love That Remains/Palmason
Other possibilities: Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind.
And now, this week's Ten Bets:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Sentimental Value/Trier
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) Hamnet/Zhao
5) Blue Moon/Linklater
6) Sirat/Oliver Laxe
7) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers
9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Other possibilities: The Love That Remains/Palmason, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, The History of Sound, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
Comment: Sentimental Value and Hamnet both gain a couple of spots. Sirat and Deliver Me from Nowhere move up one spot. Blue Moon and Young Mothers' Home lose some ground and, for now, After the Hunt supplants The Love That Remains in the #10 spot.
SENTIMENTAL VALUE TRAILER
Currently sitting at #2 in the Latest Ten Bets is Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value. The film won the Grand Prix at Cannes in May and is considered a hot property moving through the fall fest season. Neon is the film's distributor and they're larder is stacked with Cannes projects that they acquired during and after the festival.
Mubi released a trailer a couple of days ago. Here it is from YouTube:
Sentimental Value is set to open in the United States on Nov. 7th.
THE MASTERMIND IS DATED
Nest Best Picture revealed this week that Mubi will release Kelly Reichardt's The Mastermind theatrically in the U.S. on Oct. 17th.
That date means it could line up potential plays at Telluride, Toronto and/or New York. Reichardt was in Telluride in 2019 with the enigmatic First Cow.
The Mastermind played the Cannes Fest in the Palme d'Or competition. It stood somewhere in the middle of the competition group critically with a 6.29 average rating as reported by Cannes-Ratings.org.
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It's Thursday so time to update MTFB's Teb bets for TFF #52.
Here's a review of last week's Ten Bets.
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) The Love That Remains/Palmason
5) Sentimental Value/Trier
6) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
7) The Secret Agent/Filho
8) Hamnet/Zhao
9) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
10) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
And here's the updated Bets for this week:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) Sentimental Value/Trier
5) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
6) Hamnet/Zhao
7) Sirat/Oliver Laxe
8) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
10) The Love That Remains/Palmason
A little movement here and there from where things were last week. For the moment The Secret Agent has dropped off the Ten Best...but it could return. The Love That Remains drops down but stays on the list. Sirat enters the list at #7. The top three remain the same with other titles like Sentimental Value and Deliver Me from Nowhere moving up a spot.
Other possibilities: Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind.
VARIETY'S TAKE ON VENICE
We're likely about four weeks away from the announcement of the Venice lineup and then another couple of weeks past that before we find out when the films selected will be scheduled. Those two chunks of information can help illuminate the possible TFF lineup.
I've passed along a couple of sites that have speculated about potential Venice titles and today I add a piece from Variety with their take on what could play there. I've scoured the article for possible TFF titles and here's what I came up with:
The Smashing Machine/B. Safdie
After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Bugonia/Lanthimos
Couture/Winocour
Jay Kelly/Baumbach
Frankenstein/Del Toro
A House of Dynamite/Bigelow
Father, Mother, Sister, Brother/Jarmusch
La Grazia/Sorrentino
Click on the link above for the full article.
ROOFMAN HAS A TRAILER
Derek Cianfrance's next film has a trailer and World of Reel suggests that it will have a presence on the fall film fest circuit including a possible play at Telluride.
WOR head honcho, Jordan Ruimy writes that:
"It’s been a long time coming, but Derek Cianfrance is finally back. His latest feature, “Roofman,” is already being positioned for a major festival run in fall 2025."
And further along in the post from yesterday:
"As for where “Roofman” will land on the festival circuit, maybe Telluride? Definitely TIFF. Venice is an outside shot as Cianfrance has been on the Lido before, but isn’t a regular. It’ll all depend on the quality of the film."
The film stars Channing Tatum who was in Telluride in 2014 with Foxcatcher, Kirsten Dunst who was in T-ride in 2021 with The Power of the Dog and Peter Dinklage who was a TFF tribute recipient with Cyrano also in 2021. Ben Mendelsohn, Juno Temple, Uzo Aduba and LaKeith Stanfield also star. The IMDb description:
The story of the rooftop robber, Jeffrey Manchester, and his time on the lam evading capture.
And here's the trailer via YouTube:
Roofman is dated for release on Oct. 3rd.
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Welp...here it is. 2025's first "Ten Bets" attempt to suss out films that might make the TFF #52 lineup. I do a good deal of research and study to come up with these lists and even then...this first one usually does well to have six titles on it that actually make it to Telluride.
This was my first Ten Bets for last year (with the films that actually made it to TFF #51 in Bold):
1) Anora/Sean Baker
2) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof
3) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard
4) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar
5) Bird/Andrea Arnold
6) Maria/Pablo Larrain
7) Oh, Canada/Paul Schrader
8) The End/Joshua Oppenheimer
9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino
10) Conclave/Edward Berger
So seven out of the Ten...a better than average year.
Here's the track record for the first Ten Bets for the last
The puts the average at 5.8 correct guesses per year.
So, with that caveat, here is your first Ten Bets for TFF #52:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) The Love That Remains/Palmason
5) Sentimental Value/Trier
6) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
7) The Secret Agent/Filho
8) Hamnet/Zhao
9) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
10) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
Let's see what happens.
DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE HAS A TRAILER AND POSTER
Here's the poster:
Scott Cooper's Bruce Springsteen biopic, Deliver Me from Nowhere, dropped a trailer for the film. Jeremy Allen White plays "The Boss" with Jeremy Strong as Springsteen's manager Jon Landau. The film reportedly focuses on the period in Springsteen's life when he was working on his Nebraska album.
I have high hopes for the film and also hopes for it to be in Telluride Labor Day. I hope its appearance at #9 on the first Ten Bets list doesn't jinx its chances.
Here's the trailer from YouTube:
DIE MY LOVE HAS A DATE
Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reports that Lynne Ramsay's Die, My Love will have a wide release on Nov. 7th. That date puts it in place for possible screenings at Telluride, Toronto, Venice, New York and/or London. Ruimy suggests Toronto is a real possibility.
Ramsay was at Telluride in 2011 with We Need to Talk about Kevin. Prior to that she screened Morvern Callar at T-ride in 2002. So, chances aren't impossible for a Telluride run.
The film screened at Cannes back in May to mixed reviews but generally universal praise for Jennifer Lawrence's performance. The Nov. 7th date sets up a reasonable time frame for an awards push for her specifically.
