Ten (Plus) Bets for TFF #53-Vol, 6 / Venice Announces / Palm Update

TEN (PLUS) BETS FOR TFF #53-VOL. 6

Six weeks until TFF unveils its lineup!

Here's your sixth look at MTFB's best guess as to what could play.  

We begin with last week's list:

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Elsinore

A Long Winter

Fatherland

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Other possibilities: Artificial, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.

And now, after the news of this past week, here's your latest Ten (Plus) Bets for TFF #53 ranked by likelihood):

1) The Debut

2) Elsinore

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

6) A Long Winter

7) Minotaur

8) Fjord

9) Everest: The Other Side

10) Gentle Monster

11) Tenzig

12) Tender Loving Care

13) Bucking Fastard

14) Fatherland

15) The Story of Documentary Film

Other possibilities: Behemoth! Yellow Letters, Rose, Alpha Gang.

VENICE ANNOUNCES

As MTFB readers know, the Venice to Telluride connection is usually fairly robust with an average of nearly eight films playing both fests over the last five years.  Here are the films that feel most likely to do both fests in 2026 in light of Venice announcing its lineup early this morning:

From the Competition lineup:

Company/C. Affleck

Ink/Boyle (all but confirmed for Telluride)

Bucking Fastard/Herzog

Wild Horse Nine/McDonagh

Primetime/Oppenheim

Out of Competition

The Basics of Philosophy/Schrader

Non-Fiction:

Burgundy/Dweck and Kershaw

Musk/Gibney

Everest: The Other Side (all but confirmed for Telluride)

Remember, our next clue about what could play Venice and then Telluride comes when the former announces its schedule..  The films that play both places will need to have an early slot in Venice.

All sections of the Venice lineup are linked here.

https://www.labiennale.org/en/cinema/2026/lineup

PALM UPDATE

After devastating floods an mudslides in Telluride last week, the first assessment of school facilities, including a seriously impacted Palm Theater, are emeging.

The Telluride Times reported that:

"Following meetings and a walk-through Monday of the Michael D. Palm Theatre and Telluride Intermediate School and Telluride Middle/High School complex, Nicole Hattler, Palm Arts’ executive director, described herself as “cautiously optimistic.”

Telluride city and school officials noted that the first priority will be getting all other affected areas in the schools up and ready for the opening of school by Aug. 18th.  Further, they note that seating is the top priority for The Palm.  

That complete article is linked here.

https://www.telluridenews.com/news/article_24fa27f5-c902-452e-9879-6dd2717e1a17.html

This post was corrected on July 24th.

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Ten Bets #6 for TFF #52 / This Year's Barbera "Mystery" / The History of Sound Poster / Maybe Some TV?

TEN BETS #6 FOR TFF #52

Well, here we are.  We probably know some things with a reasonable degree of certainty at this poinmt after reveals from Toronto, Venice and New York.

After Toronto's Monday announcement we think this is true:

These seven films appear locked into Telluride:

Hamnet

Ballad of a Small Player

It Was Just an Accident

Nouvelle Vague

Sentimental Value

The Secret Agent

Tuner

These are film's from Venice that feel like they might play there and then come over for TFF #52:

La Grazia

Jay Kelly

The Wizard of the Kremlin

House of Dynamite

Bugoina

Orphan

Hand of Dante

Ghost Elephants

Cover-Up

I had After the Hunt on this list right up until yesterday when New York announced it as its Opening Night film as a North American Premiere...so  no Telluride.

Other films that seem gone from Telluride consideration:

Sirat

Frankenstein

Eleanor the Great

Other films that could still play Telluride:

Bugonia

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Blue Moon

The Young Mothers' Home

The History of Sound

The Love That Remains

Left-Handed Girl

Pressure

Die, My Love

The Mastermind

The American Revolution

Bucking Fastard

Last week's Ten Bets:

1) Hamnet/Zhao

2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

3) Sentimental Value/Trier

4) Bugonia/Lanthimos

5) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

6) Blue Moon/Linklater

7) Sirat/Laxe

8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers

9) The History of Sound/Hermanus

10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino

Other possibilities: The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great,  Pressure, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.

This week's new Ten Bets:

1) Hamnet/Zhao

2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

3) Sentimental Value/Trier

4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

5) The Secret Agent/Filho

6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater

7) Tuner/Roher

8) Bugonia/Lanthimos

9) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10) The History of Sound/Hermanus

Other possibilities: Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, A House of Dynamite, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up.

Information that will further illuminate what could be at TFF #52:

*Waiting to hear from Toronto as they likely have other titles to add over the next few weeks.

*Waiting to see Venice's schedule.

*Waiting for the rest of New York's lineup.

All in all, I'm feeling pretty good about where this week's "Bets" are.

THIS YEAR'S BARBERA "MYSTERY"

Over the last couple of years Venice Film Fest chief Alberto Barbera has, unwittingly or not, let slip bits and pieces of information that have given away a couple of Telluride titles.  Tuesday as he was introducing the Venice lineup we referenced Josh Safdies' Marty Supreme saying that (it) "will screen in the autumn".

Now, we know that Marty Supreme is set for a Dec. 25th release which isn't "autumn".   Does that mean Barbera has, again revealed a Telluride play?  My guess is no.  I think New York seems more likely.  I;m not saying that the reference precludes Telluride but NYFF makes more sense as the film is set primarily in NYC and the "autumn" reference matches up with New York's Sept. 26-Oct. 13 time frame better than TFF just two days after the Venetian kickoff.

Here's a link to a video of Barbera's comment.

THE HISTORY OF SOUND POSTER

From distributor Mubi yesterday, a poster for Oliver Hermanus' The History of Sound, currently sitting at #10 on this week's Ten Bets. Word is that a trailer is coming today. I'll try to add that to this post before the end of the day should it be forthcoming. Here's the poster:

MAYBE SOME TV?

@Movielo10274449 posted on X yesterday the notion that Matthew Heineman's The Savant could play Telluride and it makes some sense.

Last year the fest programmed Apple TV+'s and Alfonso Cuaron's Disclaimer starring Cate Blanchett (currently Emmy nommed for the role) and Kevin Kline. The fest ran all seven of the series episodes.

Could this happen again this year with The Savant which is also from Apple+?

Maybe Jessica Chastain who stars in the series will be in town? Please...

You bet your buns! Heineman, as @Movielo10274449 points out has screened his last two projects at T-ride. 2022's Retrograde and 2023's fantastic American Symphony.

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Ten Bets #6 for TFF #51 / Two Go Away / Two (Maybe) Get Added / Is it Possible?

TEN BETS #6 FOR TFF #51

Well, the hints hit hard this week with the Toronto and Venice Fests announcing the bulk of their 2024 lineups.  New York also got into the act by announcing their opening night film: RaMell Ross' Nickel Boys-with its conspicuous absence of a premiere designation in the media release.  Needless to say...we know more now than we did a week ago.

Here's what the "Ten Bets" and other possibilities looked like last week:

1) Anora/Baker

2) Conclave/Berger

3) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard

4) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar

5) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof

6) A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things/Cousins

7) Nickel Boys/Ross

8) Maria/Pablo Larrain

9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino

10) Bird/Arnold

Other possibilities:

The End/Oppenheimer

I'm Still Here/Salles

Parthenope/Sorrentino

In the Hand of Dante/Schnabel

Hard Truths/Leigh

The Piano Lesson/Washington

Untitled Noah Baumbach

Megalopolis/Coppola

Napoleon (new restoration)/Gance

Leonardo DaVinci/Burns

Oh, Canada/Schrader

The Actor/Johnson

SNL 1975

All We Imagine as Light

Memoir of a Snail

Now, here's the update:

1) Anora/Baker

2) Conclave/Berger

3) Emilia Perez/Audiard

4) The End/Oppenheimer

5) All We Imagine as Light/Kapadia

6) The Piano Lesson/Washington

7) Misrecordia/Guiraudie

8) Nickel Boys/Ross

9) Better Man/Gracey

10) Piece by Piece/Neville

And a Bonus Five Bets:

11) The Seed of the Sacred Fig/Rasoulof

12) A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things/Cousins

13) The Apprentice/Abassi

14) The Friend/Siegel and McGeehee

15) Don't Let's Go to the Dogs Tonight/Davitz

Other possibilities:

Maria/Larrain

Parthenope/Sorrentino

In the Hand of Dante/Schnabel

Untitled Noah Baumbach

Megalopolis/Coppola

Napoleon (new restoration)/Gance

Leonardo DaVinci/Burns

The Actor/Johnson

SNL 1975/Reitman

Memoir of a Snail/Elliot

Babygirl/Reijn

Separated/Morris

One on One: John and Yoko/ Macdonald and Rice-Edwards

Harvest/Tsangari

Allegorie Citadine/ Rohrwacher and JR

My most anticipated: Nickel Boys and Conclave.  I'd really love to see Jason Reitman's SNL 1975 make it into the lineup.

TWO GO AWAY

Venice Film Festival Artistic Director Alberto Barbera revealed in a post-announcement interview with Deadline that both Luca Guadagnino's Queer and Pedro Almodovar's The Room Next Door will be scheduled to screen the second week of the fest.  That means we can take both of those films off the board and explains why they're no longer among the "Ten Bets" or other possibilities.

Here's the relevant comment from the Deadline post:

"DEADLINE: You said this morning that we’d have to wait into the second week of the festival to see some of the big movies…

BARBERA: Yes, it was a matter of timing and schedules. The Almodóvar, Joker and Queer will be in the second half of the festival. Joker 2 will most likely be on Wednesday, for example."

The complete Deadline interview is here.

TWO (MAYBE) GET ADDED

I went through about a four hour period on Tuesday about two films that had "going to Telluride" buzz.  I wasn't quite ready to jump in and add them but Jordan Ruimy, following some of the same buzz posted this yesterday at his World of Reel website:

"I can confirm that Ali Abassi’s “The Apprentice” will be having its North American premiere at Telluride. The Donald Trump biopic still has no U.S. distribution, although a deal is on the table with Briarcliffe Entertainment — you can read more about this story here."

Later in the post Ruimy writes:

"Meanwhile, Jason Reitman’s “SNL 1975,” which recounts the 24 hours leading up to the premiere of the first Saturday Night Live episode, is close to being added to the Telluride lineup as a world premiere."

Sooo...The Apprentice from Ali Abassi and possibly SNL 1975 from Jason Reitman on their way to the San Juans?

Here's Ruimy's complete rundown on the Telluride lineup.

IS IT POSSIBLE?

Searchlight has dropped a teaser for its Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown.  Indiewire reports that the film has been dated for a December release.  Here's the teaser:

Searchlight has looked like it probably wouldn't be represented this year at TFF since the announcement that Nightbitch was World Premiering at Toronto.  I'd really all but written off anything else (see my post from June 17th).

Sooo...could this be ready?  Searchlight has a long history with Telluride and writer/director James Mangold screened Walk the Line and Ford v. Ferrari at past fests.

Then there's this from Scott Menzel of We Live Entertainment posting on X yesterday:

Do I think it could happen?  It would be an incredibly fast turnaround.  If IMDb Pro is to be believed, the film was largely shot in 2023 and had an additional nine days of shooting in early to mid June of this year.  

So, again, do I think it could happen?  Not really, but....what if it did?

And, by the way, I love the teaser.

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