Twenty (Plus) Bets for TFF #53-Vol. 10 / Talking Tributes / Club Kid Trailer and Poster / Digger to Bow in London

TWENTY (PLUS) BETS FOR TFF #53

Last week's 20 Bets:

 1) Elsinore

2) The Debut

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

6) A Long Winter

7) Fjord

8) Minotaur

9) Everest: The Other Side

10) Tender Loving Care

11) Gentle Monster

12) Wild Horse Nine

13) Fatherland

14) Rose

15) The Man I Love

16) My Undesirable Friends Part II

17) Rehearsal for a Revolution

18) The Unknown

19) Bucking Fastard

20) Tenzing

21) Alpha Gang

22) The Idiots

23) The Liberation

24) Making Marie Antoinette

25) One More Time

Other possibilities: 

 

Ancient History

The Basics of Philosophy

Burgundy

Diamond

Primetime

Sense and Sensibility

The Story of Documentary Film

Yellow Letters

And here's your update with just two weeks left to The SHOW:

1) Elsinore

2) The Debut

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) Bucking Fastard

6) Wild Horse Nine

7) Fatherland

8) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

9) A Long Winter

10) The Alpha Gang

11) Fjord

12) Minotaur

13) Everest: The Other Side

14) Tender Loving Care

15) Gentle Monster

16) Rose

17) The Man I Love

18) My Undesirable Friends Part II

19) Rehearsal for a Revolution

20) The Unknown

21) Tenzing

22) The Idiots

23) The Liberation

24) Making Marie Antoinette

25) One More Time

Other possibilities: 

 

Ancient History

The Basics of Philosophy

Burgundy

Diamond

Primetime

The Story of Documentary Film

Yellow Letters

TALKING TRIBUTES

We're so close to TFF #53 so it seems like a good time to speculate about TFF Tributes.  The fest traditionally choses 3 individuals for this special honor each year.  That can and has varied from time to time but three is the most common.

Past tribute recipients that could possibly be in Telluride include:

Cate Blanchett

Danny Boyle

Kem Burns

Mark Cousins

Penelope Cruz

Catherine Denueve

Werner Herzog

Mike Leigh

Rooney Mara

Paul Schrader

The list of potential recipients this year is lengthy:

Jimmy Chin/Everest: The Other Side

Olivia Colman/Elsinore

Willem Dafoe/Tenzing

Jesse Eisenberg/The Debut

Paul Giamatti/The Debut

Andrew Haigh/A Long Winter

Sandra Huller/Fatherland and Rose

Vicky Kreips/The Idiot(s)

John Malkovich/Wild Horse Nine

Martin McDonagh/Wild Horse Nine

Julianne Moore /The Debut

Cristian Mungiu/Fjord

Gut Pearce/Ink

Renate Reinsve/Fjord

Sam Rockwell/Wild Horse Nine

Ira Sachs/The Man I Love

Andrew Scott/Elsinore

Lea Seydoux/The Unknown, Alpha Gang and Gentle Monster

Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi/Everest:The Other Side

Andrey Zvyagnistaev/Minotaur

And. of course, all of these could be wrong.

CLUB KID TRAILER AND POSTER REVEALED

Sitting this week at #4 on the list of MTFB's Bets is Club Kid.  The film was a sensation at Cannes in May and I'll try to catch it at TFF.  Here are a trailer (warning...language) and poster for the film:

From YouTube and A24:

And the new poster:

DIGGER TO BOW IN LONDON

For those that have been thinking that Alejandro Inarritu's Digger starring Tom Cruise might still be a viable choice as a "Sneak Preview" for Telluride despite repeated reports that the film was bypassing the fall film circuit...here's another blow to that hypothesis.  Warners announce Tuesday that the film will World Premiere in London as a Royal Film Performance.

The announcement is big on making sure everyone knows it's a World Premiere.

That feels pretty definitive to me.

Could it still "sneak" at Telluride?  Sure, it's possible but I'd put those chances right now at about 5%.

Here's the official announcement from Warner Bros.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260818741409/en/Warner-Bros.-Pictures-Legendary-Pictures-and-The-Film-and-TV-Charity-Announce-the-Royal-Film-Performance-of-DIGGER?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=email_this&utm_source=email

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Who's On the Guest List? / Gold Derby Spills Some Tea / Does Gibney Play Anyway?

WHO'S ON THE GUEST LIST?

One of the great things about Telluride is the folks that come to support the films that screen there.  Bountiful Q&A's give regular Joe's an opportunity to hear from great directors, actors and other creatives about the film's they're involved in.

So it's always fun to take a look at the talent who might make the trip to southwest Colorado.  Here's a rundown of some of the films that MTFB thinks will make the grade at Telluride and the stars that might be in town with those projects.

ALPHA GANG: Cate Blanchett, Dave Bautista, Chris Pine, Lea Seydoux

BUCKING FASTARD: Rooney Mara, Kate Mara, Orlando Bloom, Domhnall Gleeson

CLUB KID: Cara Delevingne, Diego Calva

THE DEBUT: Julianne Moore, Paul Giamatti, Jesse Eisenberg

ELSINORE: Andrew Scott, Oliva Colman.

FATHERLAND: Sandra Huller, August Diehl

FJORD: Renate Reinsve, Sebastian Stan

GENTLE MONSTER: lea Seydoux, Catherine Denueve

THE IDIOT(S): Amy Lou Wood, Johnny Flynn, Vicky Kreips

INK: Jack O'Connell, Guy Pearce, Claire Foy

LA BOLA NEGRA (THE BLACK BALL): Penelope Cruz, Guitarricardelafuente, Glenn Close

THE LIBERATION: Carrie Coon, Tracy Letts, Lily James

A LONG WINTER: Kit Connor, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Caitriona Balfe

THE MAN I LOVE: Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Rami Malek, Rebecca Hall

ROSE: Sandra Huller

TENDER LOVING CARE: Kate O'Flynn

TENZIG: Willem Dafoe, Tom Hiddleston, Caitriona Balfe

THE UNKNOWN: Lea Seydoux

WILD HORSE NINE: Sam Rockwell, John Malkovich, Steve Buscemi, Parker Posey, Tom Waits

And a few from the "Possibilities" list:

THE BASICS OF PHILOSOPHY: Bill Pullman, Dana Delaney, Jack Huston

DIAMOND: Andy Garcia, Dustin Hoffman, Bill Murray

PRIMETIME: Robert Pattinson, Merritt Weaver

GOLD DERBY SPILLS SOME TEA

In a post from Gold Derby from last week titled: 

"2026 fall festival scorecard: Who’s heading to Venice, Telluride, TIFF, and NYFF — and who’s skipping the circuit?" 

They name seven films that..."Despite the Telluride Film Festival's long-standing tradition of keeping its official program strictly under wraps until the eve of Labor Day weekend, the tea leaves are brewing up some obvious premieres..."

The films:

Bucking Fastard

The Debut

Elsinore

Ink

A Long Winter

Tender Loving Care

Wild Horse Nine

They also suggest that Primetime is a possibility.

The complete Gold Derby article is linked here.

https://www.goldderby.com/film/2026/2026-venice-telluride-toronto-new-york-festivals-scorecard/

DOES GIBNEY PLAY ANYWAY?

We already have discerned that Alex Gibney's documentary about Elon Musk is not going to play Telluride, but could another Gibney doc make the TFF #53 lineup?

I'm talking about Knife, Gibney's look at the 2022 attempt on the life author Salman Rushdie.  Rushdie, as of TFF #52 was still listed among a member of TFF's "Esteemed Council of Advisors in last year's TFF #52 program so it seems like a no-brainer, except...the doc has screened already in the USA.

Knife world premiered at Sundance this year and has also been programmed at Sundance, Chicago's DOC 10 fest, Nantucket and it has screened in New York.  On the other hand, the film is being distributed by Abramorama which had Ask E. Jean at TFF #52.

I'm putting its chances at 40% and let's see what happens.

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Twenty Bets for TFF #53-Vol. 9/ Additions from New York and Toronto / This and That: The Debut, Gentle Monster, A Long Winter

TWENTY (PLUS) BETS FOR TFF #53-VOL. 9

Hi there!  Down to three weeks before the 53rd edition of the Telluride Film Festival.  Personally, I feel like it's going to be a banger this year.

Here's your weekly update-now expanded to 20 films  that MTFB thinks are going to screen over labor Day weekend.  First, though, a reminder of the "Bets" from last week:

1) Elsinore

2) The Debut

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

6) A Long Winter

7) Fjord

8) Minotaur

9) Everest: The Other Side

10) Tender Loving Care

11) Gentle Monster

12) Tenzig

13) Fatherland

14) Rose

15) The Man I Love

16) My Undesirable Friends Part II

17) Rehearsal for a Revolution

18) The Unknown

19) Bucking Fastard

20) The Story of Documentary Film

Other possibilities: 

 

Ancient History

Alpha Gang

The Basics of Philosophy

Burgundy

Company

Diamond

Primetime

Saturn Return

Sense and Sensibility

Wild Horse Nine

Yellow Letters

AND NOW...your latest Twenty (Plus) Bets:

1) Elsinore

2) The Debut

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

6) A Long Winter

7) Fjord

8) Minotaur

9) Everest: The Other Side

10) Tender Loving Care

11) Gentle Monster

12) Wild Horse Nine

13) Fatherland

14) Rose

15) The Man I Love

16) My Undesirable Friends Part II

17) Rehearsal for a Revolution

18) The Unknown

19) Bucking Fastard

20) Tenzing

21) Alpha Gang

22) The Idiots

23) The Liberation

24) Making Marie Antoinette

25) One More Time

Other possibilities: 

 

Ancient History

The Basics of Philosophy

Burgundy

Diamond

Primetime

Sense and Sensibility

The Story of Documentary Film

Yellow Letters

ADDITIONS FROM NEW YORK AND TORONTO

Earlier this week both the New York and Toronto fests added what are probably the last films to their lineups and premiere designations from each give his clues about further films that are lirkly playing Telluride.

From New York, the additions of  Making Marie Antoinette and One More Time.  Making Marie Antoinette comes from Eleanor Coppola and focuses on, well... the making of Marie Antoinette.  One More Time re-visits indie film giant Andre Gregory.

Each film was announced as a New York Premiere which lead to its inclusion on this week's bets.

Toronto indications of Canadian Premieres for Michal Englert and Małgorzata Szumowska's The Idiot(s) and Guy Nattiv's The Liberation, portend a Telluride play for each.

Additionally, TIFF indicates confirmations for Telluride for Bucking Fastards and Wild Horse Nine.  New York confirmations are The Debut, Bucking Fastards, Club Kid and Fjord.

And, sadly, it looks like Tom McCarthy's A Statement, a film I was hoping might play at Telluride, will instead World Premiere at the New York Fest.  I thought there might be a return to TFF after Spotlight started there in 2015 and ended up with that film winning the Oscar for Best Picture.

THIS AND THAT

TRAILER FOR THE DEBUT

from YouTube

TRAILER FOR GENTLE MONSTER

From YouTube

FIRST LOOKS FROM A LONG WINTER

We have a first set of photos from Andrew Haigh's A Long Winter from The Playlist.  Here are a couple:

You can find a couple more here at The Playlist.

https://theplaylist.net/a-long-winter-first-look-andrew-haighs-tiff-bound-pic-20260811/

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What the Venice Screening Schedule Suggests / Provenance for the "Bets" / Primetime Trailer and Poster

WHAT THE VENICE SCREENING SCHEDULE SUGGESTS

The screening schedule for the Venice film Festival popped on Friday and that tells us some possible films that might the jump after a Venetian World Premiere to Telluride.  It all depends on what films are scheduled in the first three days in Italy.

Danny Boyle's Ink had already been announced as the Opening Night film for Venice on Sept. 2nd and we've had it as a lock since it was announced for Toronto as a Canadian Premiere there.

Everest: The Other Side fits the same mold as Ink.  It's set for Sept. 3rd in Venice

My Undesirable Friends Part II is scheduled for Sept. 4th and its status as a New York Premiere for NYFF seems likely as a Telluride selection.

Other films that are playing the first three days at Venice include:

Bucking Fastard, Wild Horse Nine and Burgundy at Venice on Sept. 3rd.

The Basics of Philosophy at Venice on  Sept. 4

And then there's the 5th of September which seems to cut awfully close to being able to get a film from Italy to Colorado.  BUT...as best I can tell, four of the last five years have seen a film bow in Venice on it's 4th day of screening and made it to Telluride"

2021: The Lost Daughter

2022: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

2024: One to One-John and Yoko

2025: Frankenstein.

Soooo...maybe there's a film on 9/5 that fits that bill and I say Yes...that film might be Lance Oppenheim's Primetime.

So, conclusions for a TFF #53 screening are:

Bucking Fastard-99%

Burgundy 80%

Wild Horse Nine 60%

The Basics of Philosophy 60%

Primetime 50/50.

Here's what's still hanging for TFF with Venice titles indicated with ***:

Ancient History

Alpha Gang...TIFF"s Canadian Premiere status indicates a Telluride play but I'm still a little leery that it actually happens TFF #53.

***The Basics of Philosophy

***Burgundy

Company

Diamond

***Primetime

Saturn Return

Sense and Sensibility

***Wild Horse Nine

Yellow Letters

PROVENANCE FOR THE "BETS"

Here's a quick look at info for each film that's already an MFTB  "Bet" as well as the current "Maybes".  It includes the director, the distribution company, release date if available, the stars of the film and the thing we think pegs it as a TFF player.

The current Bets:

1) Elsinore- dir: Simon Stone, Focus, Nov. 20th Andrew Scott, Olivia Colman, TIFF Canadian Premiere.

2) The Debut-dir: Jesse Eisenberg, A24, Dec. 11th, Julianne Moore, Paul Giamatti TIFF International Premiere.

3) Ink-dir: Danny Boyle, Netflix, Dec. 11th, Jack O'Connell, Guy Pearce, Claire Foy, TIFF Canadian Premiere.

4) Club Kid- dir: Jordan Firstman, A24, Nov. 6th, TIFF Canadian Premiere.

5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)- dir: Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, Netflix, Dec. 4th, Penelope Cruz, Glenn Close.

6) A Long Winter- dir: Andrew Haigh, Mubi, TIFF Canadian Premiere, date unknown, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Caitriona Balfe, TIFF Canadian Premiere.

7) Fjord- dir: Cristian Mungiu, Neon, Oct. 9th, Renate Reinsve, Sebastian Stan, Oct. 9th, TIFF Canadian Premiere.

8) Minotaur-dir: Andrey Zvyagintsev, Mubi, Nov. 20th, Dmitriy Mazurov, Nov. 20th, TIFF Canadian Premiere.

9) Everest: The Other Side-dir: Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Nat Geo, Disney, Oct. 30th, Hilaree Nelson, Jim Morrison, TIFF Canadian Premiere.

10) Tender Loving Care- dir: Mike Leigh, Bleecker Street, Dec. 4th, Kate O'Flynn, TIFF Canadian Premiere. 

11) Gentle Monster-dir: Marie Kreutzer, Netflix, Nov. 18th, Lea Seydoux, Catherine Deneuve, TIFF Canadian Premiere.

12) Tenzing-dir: Jennifer Peedom, UTA Independent Film Group and Cross City Films, Oct. 16th, Tom Hiddleston, Willem Defoe,Catriona Balfe, TIFF Canadian Premiere.

13) Fatherland- dir: Pawel Palikowski, Mubi, release date unknown, Sandra Huller, August Diehl, NYFF New York Premiere.

14) Rose- dir: Markus Schleinzer, Mubi, release date unknown, Sandra Huller, NYFF New York Premiere.

15) The Man I Love- dir: Ira Sachs, no known distributor, release date unknown, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Rami Malek, Rebecca Hall (TFF #53 Guest Director), NYFF New York Premiere.

16) My Undesirable Friends Part II- dir: Julia Loktev, Mubi, release date unknown, NYFF New York Premiere.

17) Rehearsals for a Revolution- dir: Pegah Ahangarani, Sony Pictures Classics, release date unknown, TIFF Canadian Premiere. 

18) The Unknown- dir: Arthur Harari, Neon, release date unknown, Lea Seydoux, TIFF Canadian Premiere.

19) Bucking Fastard- dir: Werner Herzog, no known distributor, release date unknown, Kate Mara, Rooney mara, Orlando Bloom, Domhnall Gleeson, Early slot at Venice.

20) The Story of Documentary Film- dir: Mark Cousins, Kino Lorber,  Cousins is a past advisor to TFF and frequent presenter. However, Story of Doc films played Sundance earlier this year and Cousins' spot as a TFF "Esteemed Advisor" seems to have disappeared.  I find him last listed as such in the 2024 TFF #51 program.

And some of the other possible players:

Alpha Gang- dir: David Zellner and Nathan Zellner, CAA Media Finance, no known release date,  Cate Blanchett, Dave Bautista, Chris Pine, Lea Seydoux, TIFF International Premiere.

The Basics of Philosophy- dir: Paul Schrader, no known distributor, no known release date, Bill Pullman, Dana Delaney, Jack Huston, Early slot at Venice.

Burgundy- dir: Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw, no known distributor, no known release date, Early Venice slot.

Primetime- dir: Lance Oppenheim, A24, Sept. 25th, Robert Pattinson, Merritt Weaver, Anna Faris, Early-ish Venice slot.

Saturn Return- dir: Greg Kwedar, Netflix, release date unknown, Will Pouter, Rachel Brosnahan, Charles Melton...

Sense and Sensibility- dir: Georgia Oakley, Focus, Oct. 16th, Daisy Edgar-Jones, Caitriona, Balfe, George McKay...

Wild Horse Nine- dir: Martin McDonagh, Searchlight, Nov. 6th, John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell, Steve Buscemi, Early Venice Slot.

Yellow Letters- dir: Ilker Catak, distribution unknown, release date unknown, Won the Silver Bear at Berlin

PRIMETIME TRAILER AND POSTER

As I wrote above, Lance Oppenheim's Primetime is probably in the very last time slot in its initial Venice screening to have a chance to then make it to Telluride (likely scheduled at TFF on Sunday and Monday should it happen.  I'm hoping that it does make the cut.  To tease you a bit here are the poster and the trailer for the film:

And the trailer from  a24 and YouTube:

More on Thursday!

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More Reveals from New York and Toronto / Ten (Plus) Bets for TFF #53-Vol.8 / Tid Bits: La Bola Negra, The Debut

MORE REVEALS FROM NEW YORK AND TORONTO

The New York Film Fest announced its Main Slate of films for 2026 and its use pf Premiere designations leads MTFB to the following conclusions:

New films to add to your TFF #53 list are:

Fatherland

Rose

My Undesirable Friends Part II

The Man I Love

Also, we think confirmed for Telluride, films we already decided would play from earlier announcements:

Minotaur

A Long Winter

The Unknown

Additional announcements from Toronto suggest T-ride will screen Rehearsals for a Revolution but will not have Alex Gibney's Musk.

I'm pretty sure we have more news coming from both Toronto and New York.  Perhaps even today.  Watch MTFB Social Media accounts (see below) for any updates that may occur during the day.

so, with new info, here's the latest "Ten (Plus) Bets...

TEN (PLUS) BETS FOR TFF #53-VOL. 8

Got some changes now...

Last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:

1) Elsinore

2) The Debut

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

6) A Long Winter

7) Fjord

8) Minotaur

9) Everest: The Other Side

10) Tender Loving Care

11) Gentle Monster

12) Tenzig

13) Bucking Fastard

14) Fatherland

15) The Story of Documentary Film

Other possibilities: Yellow Letters, Rose, Alpha Gang, The Unknown, Sense and Sensibility.

And your shiny brand new Bets:

Andrew Scott in Elsinore

1) Elsinore

2) The Debut

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

6) A Long Winter

7) Fjord

8) Minotaur

9) Everest: The Other Side

10) Tender Loving Care

11) Gentle Monster

12) Tenzig

13) Fatherland

14) Rose

15) The Man I Love

16) My Undesirable Friends Part II

17) Rehearsal for a Revolution

18) The Unknown

19) Bucking Fastard

20) The Story of Documentary Film

Other possibilities: 

 

Ancient History

Alpha Gang

The Basics of Philosophy

Burgundy

Company

Diamond

Primetime

Saturn Return

Sense and Sensibility

Wild Horse Nine

Yellow Letters

TIDBITS

***Netflix has moved the release date for La Bola Negra (The Black Ball) up from its original date of Nov. 6th to Oct 16th.  The streamer is giving the Cannes hit a 47 day theatrical window in what is seen as a bid to enhance its Oscar prospects.

***Jesse Eisenberg's The Debut has been announced as the closing night film for the BFI/London Film Festival.

Both films are widely expected to screen over Labor Day weekend in Telluride.

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Surveying the Landscape / 2.5 Million Views / La Bola Negra Has a Poster / Tidbits

SURVEYING THE LANDSCAPE

Here's a quick snapshot of films that I believe could still make the Telluride lineup:

Ancient History

The Basics of Philosophy

Bucking Fastard

Company

Diamond

The Dreamed Adventure

Everytime

Fatherland

Musk

Primetime

Rose

Saturn Return

Sense and Sensibility

Wild Horse Nine

Yellow Letters

and if there is a Sundance crossover:

Josephine

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

The Weight

TWO AND ONE HALF MILLION VIEWS

MTFB swept past 2.5 million views in is 18 year history over the weekend.  those views are from 2477 posts that have posted since august of 2008.  Average per post 1009.2 views.

Thanks to all the readers!

LA BOLA NEGRA (THE BLACK BALL) HAS A POSTER

TIDBITS

***Gentle Monster to open in the U.S. on Oct. 30th

***Fatherland to open in the U.S. on Oct. 23rd.

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