Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
EARLY PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS-MATT NEGLIA OF NEXT BEST PICTURE
MTFB continues the transition of this spece fromTelluride lineup specualtion to Oscar speculation. I've been culling Oscar picks from a variety of sources to give readers a taste of where the opening weeks of Oscar season commences. Today we look at the latest predicitions from Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture. Here are the TFF #53 films Neglia is predicited for nominations:
La Bola Negra (12): Best Picture, Internationl Feature, Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Production Design, Score, Song and Sound.
The Debut (5): Best Picture, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giaigatti), Original Screenplay, Song.
Wild Horse Nine (5): Best Picture, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actoe (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Casting.
Fjord (2): Best International Feature, Original Screenplay.
Rose (2): Best Actress (Huller), Maekeup and Hair.
Tender Loving Care (1): Oeirinal Screeplay.
Neglia has 12 TFF #53 nominated with a combined total of 33 nominations.
MTFB continues to look at the opening set of Oscar predictions from various Oscarologists. Today's look is from Joey Magidson's Awards Radar.
La Bola Negra (10): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Sound and Song.
Wild Horse Nine (9): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Editing, Score.
The Debut (5): Best Picture, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Original Screenplay, Song.
Fjord (4): Best Picture, International Feature, Actor (Stan), Actress (Reinsve).
Club Kid (2): Best Picture, Original Screenplay.
Rose (2): Best International Feature, Actress (Huller).
You Can See Everything (2): Best Picture, Best Documentary.
Tender Loving Care (2): Best Supporting Actress (O'Flynn), Original Screenplay.
Elsinore (1): Best Actor (Scott).
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (1): Best Actor (Turturro).
Liberation (1): Best Actress (Coon).
Fatherland (1): Best International Feature.
Awards Radar has 12 TFF #53 films earning a total of 39 nominations.
As I write today's post, we are a week away from the lineup announcement. The easy work is done with Toronto, New York and Venice all revealing information from which we can infer probable films playing in Telluride. We're now in a phase where the sleuthing comes down to scraps of information online or from behind the scenes. In some ways it's the most fun.
Anyway, we're a week away and this is the next to last update before The SHOW kicks off next week. Reviewing last week's 20+ Bets:
1) Elsinore
2) The Debut
3) Ink
4) Club Kid
5) Bucking Fastard
6) Wild Horse Nine
7) Fatherland
8) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
9) A Long Winter
10) The Alpha Gang
11) Fjord
12) Minotaur
13) Everest: The Other Side
14) Tender Loving Care
15) Gentle Monster
16) Rose
17) The Man I Love
18) My Undesirable Friends Part II
19) Rehearsal for a Revolution
20) The Unknown
21) Tenzing
22) The Idiots
23) The Liberation
24) Making Marie Antoinette
25) One More Time
Other possibilities:
Ancient History
The Basics of Philosophy
Burgundy
Diamond
Primetime
The Story of Documentary Film
Yellow Letters
And here is this week's updated Bets:
1) Elsinore
2) The Debut
3) Ink
4) Club Kid
5) Bucking Fastard
6) Wild Horse Nine
7) Fatherland
8) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
9) A Long Winter
10) Everest: The Other Side
11) Minotaur
12) Fjord
13) Tender Loving Care
14) Gentle Monster
15) Rose
16) The Man I Love
17)The Alpha Gang
18) My Undesirable Friends Part II
19) Rehearsal for a Revolution
20) The Unknown
21) Tenzing
22) The Idiots
23) The Liberation
24) Making Marie Antoinette
25) One More Time
Other possibilities:
Ancient History
The Basics of Philosophy
Burgundy
Diamond
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
Primetime
Sense and Sensibility
The Story of Documentary Film
Yellow Letters
I'll have one FINAL BETS post a week from today.
TRIBUTE CLUES FROM TELLURIDE
One of the ways that often give clues about what direction Tributes might be going has traditionally been to look at films scheduled for free in Elks Park prior to the start of the fest. Earlier this morning the flyer for the free screening s is up:
It's difficult to see here, but Wednesday night is a screening of Project Hail Mary and Thursday is Being John Malkovich. Draw your own conclusions,,,
OTHER OUTLETS TALK TELLURIDE
A number of film-centric websites are opining re: TFF #53's films. Links to some of those are here:
As I post this on Monday morning ( August 24th) the reality of TFF #53 is now down to 10 days. As with most years, the anticipation is what dominates now. Most of the detective work is complete. Oh, sure, they'll be some continued scuttlebutt to pass a long but in the last two weeks before the fest, additional information is hard to come by. So now, it's about the wait.
The Patterson's will be pulling on Wednesday morning next week. Some years ago we began to give ourselves a two day window to drive. Breaking the journey into a two day affair gives us a bit of time to acclimate before the fest cranks up on Friday.
It's a special year in 2026 as my grandson will be joining us. He says he's very excited.
So...the wait...
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE-14TH EDITION
For the 14th year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com
The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.
I'll compile all of your responses and post those a few days after the festival.
INDIEWIRE TALKS POSSIBLE DOUBLE OSCAR NOMINEES FOR THIS YEAR
Anne Thompson at Indiewire had a piece up on which actors might have a shot at getting more than one acting Oscar nomination for this year. The article includes some folks who might be in Telluride next week.
Here's the rundown from her list of possibilities who probably have films at TFF #53 (listed in the order that Thompson addresses them in the post):
Sandra Huller: MTFB thinks Huller will have two films at Telluride: Fatherland and Rose. She also has her roles in Project Hail Mary and Digger that could merit some Oscar conversation.
Penelope Cruz: We think Cruz's La Bola Negra will be at TFF #53. Cruz also has roles in The Invite and Bunker.
Willem Dafoe: His Tenzing is probable for Telluride. He also is in Werewolf and Late Fame.
Other outside shots mentioned by Thompson include Anne Hathaway who could still potentially be at Telluride with Verity and Robert Pattinson if Primetime makes a late run from Venice to T-ride.
The New York Film Fest announced its Main Slate of films for 2026 and its use pf Premiere designations leads MTFB to the following conclusions:
New films to add to your TFF #53 list are:
Fatherland
Rose
My Undesirable Friends Part II
The Man I Love
Also, we think confirmed for Telluride, films we already decided would play from earlier announcements:
Minotaur
A Long Winter
The Unknown
Additional announcements from Toronto suggest T-ride will screen Rehearsals for a Revolution but will not have Alex Gibney's Musk.
I'm pretty sure we have more news coming from both Toronto and New York. Perhaps even today. Watch MTFB Social Media accounts (see below) for any updates that may occur during the day.
so, with new info, here's the latest "Ten (Plus) Bets...
TEN (PLUS) BETS FOR TFF #53-VOL. 8
Got some changes now...
Last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:
1) Elsinore
2) The Debut
3) Ink
4) Club Kid
5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
6) A Long Winter
7) Fjord
8) Minotaur
9) Everest: The Other Side
10) Tender Loving Care
11) Gentle Monster
12) Tenzig
13) Bucking Fastard
14) Fatherland
15) The Story of Documentary Film
Other possibilities: Yellow Letters, Rose, Alpha Gang, The Unknown, Sense and Sensibility.
And your shiny brand new Bets:
Andrew Scott in Elsinore
1) Elsinore
2) The Debut
3) Ink
4) Club Kid
5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
6) A Long Winter
7) Fjord
8) Minotaur
9) Everest: The Other Side
10) Tender Loving Care
11) Gentle Monster
12) Tenzig
13) Fatherland
14) Rose
15) The Man I Love
16) My Undesirable Friends Part II
17) Rehearsal for a Revolution
18) The Unknown
19) Bucking Fastard
20) The Story of Documentary Film
Other possibilities:
Ancient History
Alpha Gang
The Basics of Philosophy
Burgundy
Company
Diamond
Primetime
Saturn Return
Sense and Sensibility
Wild Horse Nine
Yellow Letters
TIDBITS
***Netflix has moved the release date for La Bola Negra (The Black Ball) up from its original date of Nov. 6th to Oct 16th. The streamer is giving the Cannes hit a 47 day theatrical window in what is seen as a bid to enhance its Oscar prospects.
***Jesse Eisenberg's The Debut has been announced as the closing night film for the BFI/London Film Festival.
Both films are widely expected to screen over Labor Day weekend in Telluride.
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The countdown to TFF #53 grows shorter and shorter.
Here's the fifth installment of MTFB's Ten Bets, the weekly guess at what films make the Telluride lineup. We start with a reminder of last week's bets:
Artificial
Bucking Fastard
Club Kid
Coward
The Debut
Elsinore
Fatherland
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Minotaur
Paper Tiger
Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.
If you read last Monday's post you'll recall that Neon has reversed course on Luca Guadagnino's Artificial and, at least for now, are avowing that the film "isn't likely to go down the standard festival route" which Deadline points out does not preclude some festival appearance. Heck, Deadline even says they think it will likely will be at some festival. As a matter of fact, Deadline's language doesn't shut the door on Artificial at TFF but rather, sounds like Telluride might be the most likely landing spot:
"That doesn’t mean it won’t pop up at a festival in some form (we bet it will), but it won’t have the traditional launch with the bells and whistles of a red carpet, press conference, junkets, etc."
So, I'm moving Artificial to the list of possibles and Andrew Haigh's A Long Winter back into the Ten Bets:
Bucking Fastard
Club Kid
Coward
The Debut
Elsinore
A Long Winter
Fatherland
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Minotaur
Paper Tiger
Other possibilities: Artificial, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.
A couple of other notes...
For Ten Bets #6 next week I'll begin to actually list the films in order of likelihood to play...
And we should get some news from Toronto which should be informative.
WHO'S GOT WHAT? DISTRIBUTORS: MUBI
MTFB continues its look at the film distribution companies that have had the largest profiles at the Telluride Film Festival over the past five years in an effort to, perhaps, set the table for films that could be headed to TFF #53. Up to this point for 2026 we have examined: Netflix, Neon, Sony Pictures Classics, Focus Features and A24. Each of those outfits have averaged two or more films at TFF in that time span.
Today we look at Mubi, which has had nine films at Telluride since 2021 but whose footprint has increased over the last couple of years. Additionally Mubi could potentially provide more films to TFF #53 than any other distributor.
Here's Mubi's history over the last five years:
2021: Unclenching the Fists.
2022: No films.
2023: Fallen Leaves, High & Low: John Galliano, Tehachapi.
2024: Bird.
2025: The History of Sound, King Hamlet, La Grazia, Mastermind.
And these are the films in the Mubi warehouse we think might be TFF possibilities (with their chance of making the lineup):
Coward 70%
Fatherland 65%
A Long Winter 55%
Minotaur 50%
Rose 40%
Hope 25%
NEXT BEST PICTURE GUESSES TELLIRIDE (AND OTHER FALL FESTS)
Matt Neglia and his crew at Next Best Picture have posted a massive list of films for each of the four major "fall" film fests: Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York. Looking at his T-ride list is intriguing, Here it is with films on the MTFB Ten Bets (and possibilities) list indicated with ***.
All Of A Sudden (Ryusuki Hamaguchi)
American Doctor (Poh Si Teng)
Artificial (Luca Guadagnino)***
Behemoth! (Tony Gilroy)
Bitter Christmas (Pedro Almodóvar)
Bucking Fastard (Werner Herzog)***
Club Kid (Jordan Firstman)***
Coward (Lukas Dhont)***
The Debut (Jesse Eisenberg)***
Elsinore (Simon Stone)***
Fatherland (Paweł Pawlikowski)***
Fjord (Cristian Mungiu)***
Iron Boy (Louis Clichy)
Josephine (Beth de Araújo)
La Bola Negra (Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi)***
La Gradiva (Marine Atlan)
A Long Winter (Andrew Haigh)***
Minotaur (Andrey Zvyagintsev)***
Mouse (Kelly O’Sullivan and Alex Thompson)
The Only Living Pick Pocket In New York (Noah Segan)
Primetime (Lance Oppenheim)
Rehearsals for a Revolution (Pegah Ahangarani)
Rose (Markus Schleinzer)
Saturn Return (Greg Kwedar)
The Unknown (Arthur Harari)
Yellow Letters (İlker Çatak)***
Couple of notes:
Films on the NBP list that are not currently a "Bet" by MTFB but are on the radar are: Behemoth!, Bitter Christmas, La Gradiva, Primetime, Rose and Saturn Return.
Josephine and The Only Living Pickpocket in New York were Sundance selections which doesn't rule them out for Telluride, but it's uncommon for a film to screen both places.
Lot's of buzz early this week with first look photos and a trailer for Tony Gilroy's Behemoth! The film stars Pedro Pascal and is described at IMDb like this:
"Follows a musician from a family of musicians who returns to Los Angeles. A love letter to the music of the movies and the people who make it."
Behemoth! is being distributed by Searchlight and there is a good deal of speculation that it will be making a fall film fest run though whether that would include Telluride is very uncertain at this point.
Here's an image from the Vanity Fair article:
In addition, Searchlight dropped a trailer on Tuesday. Here that is from YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7T64gVlcc1I&t=99s
Searchlight hasn't yet announced a release date from the film.
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Alex Billington at First Showing.net posted that Cannes competition choice Hope will be released in the U.S. on Sept. 9th which means it's a film that could play TFF #53...but it's cutting it very tight. TFF will conclude on Monday, Sept. 7th. The film made a minor splash at Cannes and ended that fest with a 6.15 rating on the Cannes-ratins.org website.
IMDb describes it:
"A mysterious discovery is made on the outskirts of the remote harbor town. The residents find themselves in a desperate fight for survival against something they have never encountered before."
The film is being distributed domestically by NEON which doesn't diminish any chance that it could play TFF.
For the moment I'm going to put it in the "possible but not probable" column.
Digger 10/2 (Has been announced as not planning any festival exposure)
The Social Reckoning 10/9
Wild Horse Nine 11/6
I Play Rocky 11/13
YELLOW LETTERS AND BERLIN
Mubi posted an overview of Ilker Catak's Berlin Golden Bear winner Yellow Letters on Monday which reminded me that I haven't really mentioned that I think it has a very good shot at making the TFF lineup. Catak was at Telluride in 2023 with The Teacher's lounge which ended up with an Oscar nomination for Best International Feature.
The description for Yellow Letters goes like this:
"The marriage of Derya and Aziz is under pressure after losing their jobs because of state arbitrariness and moving to Istanbul to live with Aziz's parents. They and their 13-year-old daughter Ezgi have to redefine their way of life."
Additionally, I think the other Berlin film that might show at The SHOW is Markus Schleinzer's Rose starring the actress of the moment Sandra Huller. Huller won the Berlin award for Best Actress. Rose is also being distributed by MUBI.
The description for Rose:
"A woman in the early 17th century, who is disguised as a man and wants to be a good citizen at any cost."
I'm not saying these are locks for TFF #53 by any means but, I wouldn't be surprised if one or both where in the lineup on announcement morning.
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