Ten Bets for TFF #53-Vol.5 / Who's Got What? Distributors: Mubi / Is Behemoth! Coming? / Next Best Picture Guesses Telluride (and other fall fests)

TEN BETS FOR TFF #53-VOL.5

The countdown to TFF #53 grows shorter and shorter.  

Here's the fifth installment of MTFB's Ten Bets, the weekly guess at what films make the Telluride lineup.  We start with a reminder of last week's bets:

Artificial

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Elsinore

Fatherland

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.

If you read last Monday's post you'll recall that Neon has reversed course on Luca Guadagnino's Artificial and, at least for now, are avowing that the film "isn't likely to go down the standard festival route"  which Deadline points out does not preclude some festival appearance.  Heck, Deadline even says they think it will likely will be at some festival.  As a matter of fact, Deadline's language doesn't shut the door on Artificial at TFF but rather, sounds like Telluride might be the most likely landing spot:

"That doesn’t mean it won’t pop up at a festival in some form (we bet it will), but it won’t have the traditional launch with the bells and whistles of a red carpet, press conference, junkets, etc."

So, I'm moving Artificial to the list of possibles and Andrew Haigh's A Long Winter back into the Ten Bets:

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Elsinore

A Long Winter

Fatherland

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Other possibilities: Artificial, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.

A couple of other notes... 

For Ten Bets #6 next week I'll begin to actually list the films in order of likelihood to play...

And we should get some news from Toronto which should be informative.

WHO'S GOT WHAT? DISTRIBUTORS: MUBI

MTFB continues its look at the film distribution companies that have had the largest profiles at the Telluride Film Festival over the past five years in an effort to, perhaps, set the table for films that could be headed to TFF #53.  Up to this point for 2026 we have examined: Netflix, Neon, Sony Pictures Classics, Focus Features and A24. Each of those outfits have averaged two or more films at TFF in that time span.

Today we look at Mubi, which has had nine films at Telluride since 2021 but whose footprint has increased over the last couple of years.  Additionally Mubi could potentially provide more films to TFF #53 than any other distributor.

Here's Mubi's history over the last five years:

2021: Unclenching the Fists.

2022: No films.

2023: Fallen Leaves, High & Low: John Galliano, Tehachapi.

2024: Bird.

2025: The History of Sound, King Hamlet, La Grazia, Mastermind.

And these are the films in the Mubi warehouse we think might be TFF possibilities (with their chance of making the lineup):

Coward 70%

Fatherland 65%

A Long Winter 55%

Minotaur 50%

Rose 40%

Hope 25%

NEXT BEST PICTURE GUESSES TELLIRIDE (AND OTHER FALL FESTS)

Matt Neglia and his crew at Next Best Picture have posted a massive list of films for each of the four major "fall" film fests: Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York.  Looking at his T-ride list is intriguing,  Here it is with films on the MTFB Ten Bets (and possibilities) list indicated with ***.

All Of A Sudden (Ryusuki Hamaguchi)

American Doctor (Poh Si Teng)

Artificial (Luca Guadagnino)***

Behemoth! (Tony Gilroy)

Bitter Christmas (Pedro Almodóvar)

Bucking Fastard (Werner Herzog)***

Club Kid (Jordan Firstman)***

Coward (Lukas Dhont)***

The Debut (Jesse Eisenberg)***

Elsinore (Simon Stone)***

Fatherland (Paweł Pawlikowski)***

Fjord (Cristian Mungiu)***

Iron Boy (Louis Clichy)

Josephine (Beth de Araújo)

La Bola Negra (Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi)***

La Gradiva (Marine Atlan)

A Long Winter (Andrew Haigh)***

Minotaur (Andrey Zvyagintsev)***

Mouse (Kelly O’Sullivan and Alex Thompson)

The Only Living Pick Pocket In New York (Noah Segan)

Primetime (Lance Oppenheim)

Rehearsals for a Revolution (Pegah Ahangarani)

Rose (Markus Schleinzer)

Saturn Return (Greg Kwedar)

The Unknown (Arthur Harari)

Yellow Letters (İlker Çatak)***

Couple of notes:

Films on the NBP list that are not currently a "Bet" by MTFB but are on the radar are: Behemoth!, Bitter Christmas, La Gradiva, Primetime, Rose and Saturn Return.

Josephine and The Only Living Pickpocket in New York were Sundance selections which doesn't rule them out for Telluride, but it's uncommon for a film to screen both places.

Next Best Pictures' complete set of lists is linked here.

https://nextbestpicture.com/predicting-the-2026-fall-film-festival-lineups-for-venice-telluride-tiff-nyff/

IS BEHEMOTH! COMING?

Lot's of buzz early this week with first look photos and a trailer for Tony Gilroy's Behemoth!  The film stars Pedro Pascal and is described at IMDb like this:

"Follows a musician from a family of musicians who returns to Los Angeles. A love letter to the music of the movies and the people who make it."

Behemoth! is being distributed by Searchlight and there is a good deal of speculation that it will be making a fall film fest run though whether that would include Telluride is very uncertain at this point.

Here's an image from the Vanity Fair article:

In addition, Searchlight dropped a trailer on Tuesday.  Here that is from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7T64gVlcc1I&t=99s

Searchlight hasn't yet announced a release date from the film.

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Ten Bets for TFF #53-Vol. 4 / Pause: Moves This Week... / Back to the 4th Ten Bets / Who's Got What? Distributors: Focus Features

TEN BETS FOR TFF #53-VOL. 4

Last week's Ten Bets list:

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Fatherland

Fjord

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Yellow Letters

Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Artificial and The Story of Documentary Film.

PAUSE: MOVES THIS WEEK...

We'll get to the new Ten Bets after this ...

Variety reports that hot property Elsinore starring Andrew Scott and Olivia Colman has been acquired by Focus Features after what they report as a:

"a competitive bidding war among several studios for the Simon Stone-directed drama"

MTFB has been following the emergence of the film since last week marking it as a late breaking possibility for TFF #53.  Variety's tory on the acquisition by Focus also had something to say about that:

"Sources tell Variety that programmers at each of the fall festivals — Venice, Telluride, Toronto and New York — are circling the title, though a premiere venue has yet to be set."

The Playlist  underscored the point reporting that:

"(Elsinore) is also a movie that, like “Artificial,” has gotten into every festival it has screened for."

The way I read that is that all four fests are eager to program the film and now it's matter of what Focus wants to do...where they wan to with the film.  It sure doesn't slow down the speculation that it might well be included for The SHOW.

Add that to the other notices last week that Artificial had been invited by "all the major fall festivals" per The Playlist.  

On top of that, Jesse Eisenberg's The Debut seems to be picking up steam with his claim that the film will debut at a fall film fest.  Don't discount that A Real Pain played Telluride nor should we ignore that Emma Stone, who we believe is a big fan of Telluride, is/was a producer for both films.  

All of this has altered the new Ten Bets from last week.  Which leads us back to...

Here's the complete story from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/awards/focus-features-elsinore-andrew-scott-acquisition-1236801625/

And also from The Playlist.

https://theplaylist.net/halfway-to-oscars-2027-project-hail-mary-la-bola-negra-digger-andrew-scott-20260701/

BACK TO THE 4TH TEN BETS

Here's your latest Ten Bets for TFF #53...

Artificial

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Elsinore

Fatherland

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.

WHO'S GOT WHAT? DISTRIBUTORS: FOCUS FEATURES

I MTFB's continuing look at common distributors of films that make the Telluride lineup we turn for Focus Features which, over the last five years, has been the fourth most ubiquitou distributor at TFF.  They've screened 11 films at The SHOW in that time:

2021: Belfast, The Card Counter.

2022: TAR, Armageddon Time.

2023: The Holdovers, The Bikeriders

2024: Conclave, Piece by Piece.

2025: Hamnet, Bugonia, Hamlet.

11 films, six of which were nominated for Best Picture.  That's an impressive list.  So going into TFF #53 you have to think Focus will have at least two films make the grade... Here's their most likely applicants:

(The newly acquired) Elsinore, Sense and Sensibility, Hope and The Uprising.

Chances for TFF #53:

Elsinore 70%

Sense and Sensibility 40%

Hope 25%

The Uprising 20%

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A Legend of TFF Passes / Ten Bets for TFF #53 Vol. 2 / Trailers!

 A LEGEND OF TFF PASSES

Jim Bedford passed away on Saturday, June 20th, 2026.  He was 81.  

Bedford, "BF" to his friends, was a giant part of the Telluride Film Festival from the very beginning listed as the Fest's Telluride "coordinator" right below the founders of the fest in the 1974 program for TFF #1.

The only reason I know that is that I have a duplicated copy of that first year's program courtesy of Mr. Bedford.  I also have an original copy of every Telluride program  since then, again courtesy of Mr. Bedford.

He seemed to be a fan of the blog,  particularly the "history of the fest pages" that you can look at by clicking the links at the bottom of the masthead/MTFB logo at the top of this page.  All of the work that I did to put that together a few years back that covers 1974-2005 comes from those programs.

Mr. Bedford and I  had exchanged some emails over the years so we, weren't strangers, but I had never met him face-to-face until a couple of years ago.  That came about as a result of an invitation from him for me to join in a annual meet-up held during each festival.  The purpose of the meeting each year is to raise a glass to all the folks who had been a part of the TFF family, particularly on the technical side of the fest, who had passed since the previous year's fest.

I was very deeply moved that I was asked to be any part of this ceremony.  I still am.

I was fortunate enough to be asked back again last year and actually got to spend some time with "BF" (He'll always be Mr. Bedford to me.  Too much respect for what the man did...and that's not even mentioning the legacy of KOTO radio in Telluride).  He was very encouraging about this space.  

Mr. Bedford's last program credit for TFF came in 2010 with the 37th Fest.

I don't think it's hyperbole to suggest that without Jim Bedford there might not be a Telluride Film Festival. 

So here's to Jim Bedford.  He was kind and thoughtful and loved the SHOW.

TEN BETS  FOR TFF #53: VOL. 2

Here's the first update of MTFB's Ten Bets for TFF #53'  First, last week's bets:

The Black Ball

Bucking Fastard

Coward

The Debut

Fatherland

A Long Winter

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

The Story of Documentary Film

Yellow Letters

This week we add in a couple of films and move a couple to the "Other possibilities" list:

The Black Ball

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Fatherland

Fjord

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Yellow Letters

Other possibilities: A Long Winter and The Story of Documentary Film.

We'll have an updated list again next Thursday.

TRAILERS!

THE DEBUT

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clyzHmBx43E

SHEEP IN THE BOX

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5mlc8TAPNw

KLARA AND THE SUN

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlwmEqQv82M

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50 Fall Film Possibilities 2026 / The Travails of Guadagnino

50 FALL FILM POSSIBILITIES 2026

Ezra Cubero writing for Silver Screen Express has posted his annual set of speculations about which films might go where as regards Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York.  It's an interesting take with some surprises.

Cubero had 11 films on his list last year the did make the TFF #52 lineup.

I culled the post and began by creating a list of the films that Cubero thinks have some shot at the TFF #53 lineup.  It's a lengthy list which follows below (with director listed to the right).  He has three categories..."Possible". "Could Happen" and "Nope".

Telluride "Possibles"

All of a Sudden

Behemoth!

The Black Ball+++

Coward+++

The Debut+++

Fatherland+++

Fjord

Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty!**

Josephine**

A Long Winter+++

Minotaur+++

Mouse

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York**

Paper Tiger+++

Prima Facie

Rose

Sense and Sensibility

Tender Loving Care

The Weight**

Among the "Could Be's":

Being Heumann

Bitter Christmas

Club Kid

The Dreamed Adventure

Look Back

A Place in Hell

Primetime

Saturn Return

Tangled

+++ Indicates the film's presence on MTFB's first Ten Bets for TFF #53

** Indicates a Sundance Fest film which usually mitigates a film's chances at playing Telluride.

Of note, Cubero lists Herzog's Bucking Fastard as a "No" for TFF #53.  I feel pretty good about its chances.

The complete list of 50 films can be found here.

https://silverscreenxpress.wordpress.com/2026/06/17/50-potential-films-at-the-fall-film-festivals-2026/

THE TRAVAILS OF GUADAGNINO

There was a time that I had Lucas Guadagnino's Artificial on my TFF #53 watch list.  The film was housed at Amazon-MGM and Guadagnino's past with films at Telluride (Bones and All, Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams) made it seem like a good bet.  Then it was announced the film would open in 2027 and that took it right out of my speculation.

New turns have made the film's future murky.  Reportedly Amazon-MGM has cut ties with the film and are seeking a buyer for it;  Word is that A24, NEON, Netflix and Focus Features and others have seen the film but as of this morning, no deal has been made.

If Artificial lands at any of the aforementioned distributors that could, conceivably, put it back into play for fall fests including Telluride.

The IMDb description for the films:

"Follows the confusing firing and rehiring cycle of Sam Altman at OpenAI where the board gained control of the company and removed him, and Altman still returned."

Stay tuned.

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Ten Bets for TFF #53, Vol. 1 / World of Reel on Venice Titles

TEN BETS FOR TFF #53, VOL. 1

Well, here it is (Live from the 2026 National Speech and Debate Tournament in Richmond, VA.) the first Ten Bets for 2026 for TFF #53.  I'm doing this a little differently than in the past in that I am listing the early versions of the Ten Bets in alphabetical order.  In the later going, as we get closer to The SHOW, I'll revert to the traditional ranking in order of what I think the chances are of making a TFF appearance.

So here are the first guesses (10 of them) for films at TFF #53 (in the aforementioned alphabetical order):

The Black Ball

Bucking Fastard

Coward

The Debut

Fatherland

A Long Winter

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

The Story of Documentary Film

Yellow Letters

As the weeks unfold, I'll update every Thursday as new info and rumors swirl.  Additionally, as we get closer to Labor Day, I'll also expand the list beyond a mere ten bets.

I'll remind readers that MTFB averages about six correct guesses on each year's initial Ten Bets.  I also have to tell you that there are some titles here that I'd be very excited about seeing.

Let the next few weeks tell the story! 

WORLD OF REEL ON VENICE TITLES

Jordan Ruimy has a list of possible Venice titles.  Many MTFB readers know that each year a number of films play the early part of Venice and then make a blazing trans-continental trip to the San Juans. 

From WOR's Venice speculative list, here's my take on what might make the trip:

Bucking Fastard

Here Comes the Flood

Tender Loving Care

Wild Horse Nine

Look Back

The Basics of Philosophy 

A Long Winter

Bunker

The Social Reckoning

Elon

The complete list is linked here.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/6/16/david-finchers-cliff-booth-wont-premiere-at-venice

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Neglia Takes a Stab / Black Ball Teaser / Acquisition News Out of Cannes

NEGLIA TAKES A STAB

Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture (and remember Matt was on the ground in Cannes for the first two thirds or so) posted on his X account on Monday some speculation about where all of the Cannes' Palme d'Or competition films might go during the upcoming fall film fest frenzy.  Of the 22, Matt has named 8 films that he thinks may be a part of the TFF #53 lineup...

Again, Matt's predictions: All of a Sudden, Bitter Christmas, The Black Ball, Coward, Fatherland, Fjord, Minotaur and Paper Tiger.

I'm most interested in Paper Tiger, Fatherland and Coward.  Could get interested in Fjord, Minotaur and All of a Sudden.

THE BLACK BALL TEASER

We have a teaser from The Black Ball, which we're on TFF#53 alert for.  Could it be in Telluride on Labor Day weekend?

Here it is via YouTube and MovieStar Plus:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAZ8aVMfAUw

ACQUISITION NEWS OUT OF CANNES

Deadline reports that Netflix has acquired The Black Ball for distribution and Gentle Monster as well. The pick-up doesn't either hurt a film's chances for a play at Telluride as Netflix has become a very visible presence at the fest for the last several years.

Here's the Deadline article.

https://deadline.com/2026/05/netflix-cannes-lea-seydoux-gentle-monster-1236919715/

Meanwhile, MUBI has grabbed the North American distribution rights for Kukas Dhont's Coward.  That's also a move that doesn't hurt the prospects for Coward to be at TFF.  Dhont has previously presented two films at Telluride: Girl in 2018 and Close in 2022.

Here's that story from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/news/coward-lukas-dhont-mubi-north-american-rights-1236755499/

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Prize Winners from Cannes / Stacking Up with the Recent Past / What the Ratings Suggest

PRIZE WINNERS FROM CANNES

It's all over in France.  The 79th Cannes Film Festival closed with its awards ceremony on Saturday evening and Cristian Mungiu's Fjord won the Palme d'Or.  It was Mungiu's second Palme win after having won previously for Four Years, Three Weeks, Two Days back in 2007.  That film played the Telluride Film festival.

Complete winners from the Palme d'Or official competition:

Palme d'Or: Fjord (Mungiu)

Grand Prix: Minotaur (Zvyaginastev)

Jury Prize: The Dreamed Adventure (Grisebach)

Best Direction (Tie): Fatherland (Pawelkowski) and The Black Ball (Calvo and Ambrossi)

Best Screenplay: A Man of His Time (Marre)

Best Actress (Tie): All of a Sudden (Efira and Okamoto)

Best Actor (Tie): Coward (Macchia and Campagne)

STACKING UP WITH THE RECENT PAST

For comparison's sake, here's a winner of the same categories over the last five years with eventual TFF selections indicated with an *.

2025

Palme d'Or: It Was Just an Accident (Panahi)*

Grand Prix: Sentimental Value (Trier)*

Jury Prize: (Tie) Sirat (Laxe) and The Sound of Falling (Schilinski)

Best Direction: The Secret Agent (Mendonca)*

Best Screenplay: Young Mothers (Luc and Jean-Pierre Dardennes)

Best Actress: The Little Sister (Nadia Melliti)

Best Actor (Tie): The Secret Agent (Wagner Moura)*

Special Prize: Ressurection (Gan)

2024

Palme d'Or: Anora (Baker)*

Grand Prix: All We Imagine as Light (Kapadia)*

Jury Prize: Emilia Perez (Audiard)*

Best Direction: Grand Tour (Gomes)

Best Screenplay: The Substance (Fargeat)

Best Actress: Emilia Perez (Gascon, Saldana, Gomez and Paz)*

Best Actor: Kinds of Kindness (Plemons)

Special Prize: The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Rasoulof)*

2023

Palme d'Or: Anotomy of a Fall (Triet)*

Grand Prix: The Zone of Interest (Glazer)*

Jury Prize: Fallen Leaves (Kaurismaki)*

Best Direction: The Taste of Things (Tran Ahn Hung)*

Best Screenplay: Monster (Sakamoto, dir: Kore-eda)

Best Actress: About Dry Grasses (Merve Dizdar)

Best Actor: Fallen Leaves (Koji Yakoshu)*

2022

Palme d'Or: Triangle of Sadness (Ostlund)

Grand Prix: (Tie): Stars at Noon (Denis) and Close (Dhont)*

Jury Prize: (Tie): Eo (Skolimowski) and Eight Mountains (Vandermeersch and Groeningen)

Best Direction: Decision to Leave (Chan-wook)

Best Screenplay: Boy from Heaven (Saleh)

Best Actress: Holy Spider (Amir Ebrahimi)*

Best Actor: Broker (Kang-ho)*

Special 75th Anniversary Prize: Tori and Lokita (Dardennes)*

2021

Palme d'Or: Titane (Ducournau)

Grand Prix: (Tie): Compartment  No. 6 (Kuosmanen) and A Hero (Farhadi)*

Jury Prize: (Tie): Ahed's Knee (Lapid) and Memoria (Weerasethakul)

Best Direction: Annette (Carax)

Best Screenplay: Drive My Car (Hamaguchi)

Best Actress: The Worst Person in the World (Renate Reinsve)

Best Actor: Nitram (Caleb Landry Jones)

As you can see, winning the Plame d'Or isn't a guarantee that a film will play at TFF although the last three have.

As to the rest of the categories, here's where they stand over the five years with winners then being a part of TFF:

Grand Prix: 5 (it's the most solid category in terms of a Cannes/Telluride connection).

Jury Prize: 2

Director: 2

Screenplay: 0

Actress: 2

Actor: 3

Special Prizes: 2

So your best odds by this metric favor 2026 Grand Prix winner Minotaur.

Next best are for Palme winners and Best Actor which would point toward: Fjord and Coward.

After that it gets very murky...

WHAT THE RATINGS SUGGEST

Taking a look at Cannes results over the last five years that have made the connection between Cannes and Telluride is, at the least interesting, and may be instructive as to anticipating what films might make that journey this year.

First, the average number of films that do the Telluride/Cannes two step seems to have increased over the past five years.  Here's the number that have made it since 2021:

2021-7

2022-9

2023-10

2024-8

2025-9

That averages out to 8.6 films each year.

Now, using the ratings from Cannes-ratings.org, where did these 43 films land on their 10point scale?

2021:

A Hero 7.30

Red Rocket 7.30

The French Dispatch 7.11

Bergman Island 7.09

The Velvet Underground 6.83

Cow 6.80

Unclenching the Fists 6.24

2022:

The Pupils 8.37

Aftersun 8.17

Close 7.76

Broker 7.47

Godland 7.38

One Fine Morning 7.34

Armageddon Time 6.90

Holy Spider 6.70

Tori and Lokita 6.32

2023:

The Zone of Interest 8.19

Perfect Days 7.91

Anatomy of a Fall 7.90

Fallen Leaves 7.46

La Chimera 7.46

The Taste of Things 7.01

Occupied City 6.97

Anselm 6.41

Little Girl Blue 6.21

Room 999 (no ratings found)

2024:

Anora 8.35

Misericordia 7.47

Bird 7.45

Emilia Perez 7.42

All We Imagine as Light 7.02

The Apprentice 6.94

Santosh 6.07

2025:

Sentimental Value 8.04

It Was Just an Accident 7.75

Pillion 7.30

Nouvelle Vague 7.23

Urchin 7.15

A Private Life 6.99

Mastermind 6.29

The History of Sound 5.81

43 films in all with 2025's The History of Sound being the lowest rated film to be picked up of any of the 43 by TFF.

The vast majority of films clear the 6.5 bar.  That's true for 35 of he 43 films listed above.  So what do this year's ratings signal, if anything?

Using the 6.5 or above metric and also being a little sly about films that are on the MTFB watch list, here's some takeaways:

32 films in all sections of Cannes #79 were above the 6.5 threshold. Among them, here are some films that I have on the MTFB watch list and where they are on the Cannes-ratings.org list:

#7) All of a Sudden 7.39

#10) Coward 7.28

#11) Minotaur 7.03

#21) Fjord 6.69

Other films that made enough of a splash that could earn them spots on the MTFB Watch List:

#1 Club Kid 8.37

#13 The Dreamed Adventure 6.94

#15 The Black Ball 6.91

#24 Avedon 6.50

#31 Clarissa 6.43

MTFB Watch list films that may have taken a hit:

#40 Fatherland 6.15

#42 Paper Tiger 6.15

#43 Hope 6.14

Off the top 50 grid so...you know...

Moulin 5.73

Gentle Monster 4.66

Sheep in the Box 4.53

Parallel Tales 4.22

The Unknown 4.14

Draw your own conclusions...the first official "Ten Bets" for TFF #53 drops on June18th.

More on Thursday!

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Cannes Is On / Awards Watch Oscar Predictions and TFF Clues / Bitter Christmas Teaser and Poster / Pics of Possibles from Cannes

CANNES IS ON

The 79th Cannes Film Festival is officially underway in France.  As is our habit here at MTFB, we will monitor the fest for the next two weeks looking at buzz, critical reception and ultimately prize winners to assess prospects for films to do the Cannes/Telluride Two Step.  

As I have often mentioned, the link between the two film fests is quite strong with an average of 7ish or so films playing each year, first at Cannes and then later at Telluride.

I also tend to look at Cannes-ratings.org, Ioncinema and Screen daily for collections of critical responses.  Last year nine films made the trans-Atlantic leap from France to Colorado.  Here's where they stood critically at Cannes based on the Cannes-ratings.org site's 10 point system:

Sentimental Value 8.04

It Was Just an Accident 7.75

Pillion 7.30

Nouvelle Vague 7.23

Urchin 7.15

The Secret Agent 6.99

Mastermind 6.29

A Private Life 5.90

The History of Sound 5.31

It's too early in the fest to start keeping tabs on the critical reactions but we may be able to begin to evaluate some of that in Monday's post.

AWARDS WATCH AND TFF CLUES

Erik Anderson has begun his annual updating list of predictions for Oscar '27 and I'm going through them for possible TFF titles.  among the films that he lists as Best Picture possibilities, these are the ones that look most Telluride-friendly:

Fjord

Wild Horse Nine

Fatherland

The Social Reckoning

All of a Sudden

Sense and Sensibility

Behemoth!

Being Heumann

Coward

Hope

Jack of Spades

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Saturn Return

Sweetsick

No One Cares (Jesse Eisenberg musical)

The complete set of predictions from Awards Watch are linked here.

https://awardswatch.com/2027-oscar-predictions-best-picture-and-best-director-may/

BITTER CHRISTMAS TEASER AND POSTER

Pedro Almodovar's Bitter Christmas is playing Cannes...and could be a Telluride player as well.  In conjunction with its bow at Cannes, there is a poster and a teaser. Here they be:

And the teaser from Sony Pictures Classics and YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PgPkSpuYpY&t=2s

PICS FROM POSSIBLES FROM CANNES:

***From Vanity Fair:  Paper Tiger:

***From The Hollywood Reporter: Coward:

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Two Million Times / Collating You Didn't Know You Needed / Looks and Re-looks / No No Narnia

TWO MILLION TIMES

MTFB blew past the two million view mark since the last post.  The average views per post now is 818.  That's a lot of reading...and writing.  Thanks for taking a look...2,000,000 times.

COLLATING YOU DIDN'T KNOW YOU NEEDED

So, I went through the various lists that I have used to try to get a bead on TFF #53 including "Too Early" Oscar predictions, Cannes Speculation and ultimate choices, and "Most Anticipated" lists from the beginning of the year to get a sense of where my mind has been over the first four months of 2026 concerning potential TFF #53 films and here's what I discovered...

James Gray's Paper Tiger leads my take from all the different lists...not by much, but it is the film I have mentioned the most.

The next group all are close to Paper Tiger.  Four films are grouped here: 

Hamagichi's All of a Sudden, Guadagnino's Artificial, Inarritu's Digger and Munigiu's Fjord. 

Weirdly, despite these four being the second most mentioned in my speculations I can't say any of them feel like a sure thing for TFF.  And, of course, Warner Brothers has stated that Digger won't be doing any festivals much like Inarritu's The Revenant back in 2015).

The next group includes:

Almodovar's Bitter Christmas, Joel Coen's Jack of Spades, Farhadi's Parallel Tales and Kore-eda's Sheep in the Box.

And like the previous group, they all feel possible and none of them feel certain.

The final group has six films:

Herzog's Bucking Fastard, Pawlikowski's Fatherland, Sorkin's The Social Reckoning, McDonagh's Wild Horse Nine, Kwedar's Saturn Return and Harari's The Unknown.

I actually feel pretty good about Herzog and Pawlikowski. The other films in this group seem borderline possible.

Among the 18 other films that have appeared somewhere in m musings over the last four months, the most likely TFF candidates would appear to be:

The Long Winter (Haigh)

Coward (Dhont)

The Basics of Philosophy (Schrader)

As we begin the month of May we'll be paying particular attention to critical responses and ultimately the awards presentations out of Cannes which kicks off on May 12th and concludes May 23rd. 

LOOKS AND RE-LOOKS

We have a clip from Oren Jacoby's This Is Not a Drill.  The documentary screened at TFF #52.  Here's the clip from YouTube and The Film Stage:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQNqE6lUk7Q

Also, we have a teaser/trailer for Asghar Farhadi's Parallel Tales with subtitles.  Also from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3BV9KeJzGM

MTFB had it last week but didn't have a subtitled version.

NO NO NARNIA

I have been rather whimsically including an occasional mention that Greta Gerwig's Narnia; The Magician's Nephew might be a TFF #53 selection.  Admittedly, it seemed unlikely but entirely outside the realm of possibility given the frequent appearance of Ms. Gerwig and/or her partner, Noah Baumbach at TFF over the years.  Additionally, the fact that the it's from Netflix doesn't hurt in as far as a possible TFF play is concerned.

But all of that has been laid to rest as the film has been re-dates for a 2027 release.  The Hollywood Reporter, among many outlets reported this on Friday.  From THR:

"Gerwig’s adaptation of the sixth book in the C.S. Lewis fantasy series, The Magician’s Nephew...will now be getting a release on Feb. 12, 2027 and then will hit on Netflix April 2, 2027. Sneak previews of the film will begin on Feb. 10, 2027, only in Imax."

I guess it's still possible in a far-fetched scenario, that the film could still screen at Telluride, but with a release now coming nearly six months later...probably not.

Here's the link to the complete Hollywood Reporter article.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/netflix-narnia-movie-greta-gerwig-release-date-1236581880/

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Cannes Announces / Photos from Cannes' Selections

CANNES ANNOUNCES

The field of films for the 79th Cannes Film Festival have been announced.  This is important because history tells us that it's highly likely that 6-8 of these films (mostly from the Palme d'Or competition category) will be selected/invited to play at TFF #53 this fall.  Here, from Next Best Picture, are the fils that were announced this morning (films that I think have are the most likely for Telluride are indictaed with ***):

​COMPETITION

"The Electric Kiss" (dir. Pierre Salvadori) Opening Night film.

“All Of A Sudden” (dir. Ryusuke Hamaguchi)***

“The Beloved” (dir. Rodrigo Sorogoyen)

“Bitter Christmas” (dir. Pedro Almodóvar)***

“The Black Ball” (dir. Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi)

“Coward” (dir. Lukas Dhont)***

“The Dreamed Adventure” (dir. Valeska Grisebac)

“Fatherland” (dir. Pawel Pawlikowski)*** (previously titled 1949)

“Fjord” (dir Cristian Mungiu)***

“Garance” (dir. Jeanne Herry)

“Gentle Monster” (dir. Marie Kreutzer)***

“Hope” (dir. Na Hong-Jin)

“The Man I Love” (dir. Ira Sachs)

“Minotaur” (dir. Andrey Zvyagintsev)***

“Moulin” (dir. Laszlo Nemes)***

“Nagi Notes” (dir. Kôji Fukada)

“Notre Salut” (dir. Emmanuel Marre)

“Parallel Stories” (dir. Asghar Farhadi)***

“Sheep in the Box” (dir. Hirokazu Kore-eda)***

“Stories Of The Night” (dir. Lea Mysius)

“The Unknown” (dir. Arthur Harari)***

“A Woman’s Life” (dir. Charline Bourgeois-Taquet)

UN CERTAIN REGARD

“Club Kid” (dir. Jordan Firstman)

“Congo Boy” (dir. Rafiki Fariala)

“Elephants in the Fog” (dir. Abinash Bikram Shah)

“Everytime” (dir. Sandra Wollner)

“I Am Always Your Maternal Animal” (dir. Valentina Maurel)

“I’ll Be Gone in June” (dir. Katharina Rivilis)

“Le Corset” (dir. Louis Clichy)

“The Meltdown” (dir. Manuela Martelli)

“Strawberries” (dir. Laïla Marrakchi)

“Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma” (dir. Jane Schoenbrun)

“Yesterday the Eye Didn’t Sleep” (dir. Rakan Mayasi)

OUT OF COMPETITION

“De Gaulle: L’Age de Fer” (dir. Antonin Baudry)

“Diamond” (dir. Andy Garcia)

“The Electric Kiss” (dir. Pierre Salvadori)

“Her Private Hell” (dir. Nicolas Winding Refn)

“Karma” (dir. Guillaume Canet)

“L’Abandon” (dir. Vincent Garenq)

“L’Objet Du Delit” (dir. Agnes Jaoui)

MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS

“Colony” (dir. Yeon Sang-ho)

“Full Phil” (dir. Quentin Dupieux)

“Jim Queen and the Quest for Chloroqueer” (dir. Nicolas Athane and Marco Nguyen)

“Roma Elastica” (dir. Bertrand Mandico)

“Sanguine” (dir. Marion Le Coroller)

SPECIAL SCREENINGS

“Avedon” (dir. Ron Howard)

“John Lennon: The Last Interview” (dir. Steven Soderbergh)

“Les Matins  Merveilleux” (dir. Avril Besson)

“Les Survivants du Che” (dir. Christophe Réveille)

CANNES PREMIERE

“Heimsuchung” (dir. Volker Schlondorff)***

“Kokurojo: The Samurai and the Prisoner” (dir. Kiyoshi Kurosawa)

“Propeller One-Way Night Coach” (dir. John Travolta)

“The Third Night” (dir. Daniel Auteuil)

PHOTOS FROM CANNES' SELECTIONS

COWARD

FATHERLAND (1949)

VISITATION

FJORD

ALL OF A SUDDEN

MINOTAUR

THE UNKNOWN

According to Cannes head Thierry Fremaux per Next Best Picture, the lineup is 95% complete so other films will be added in the coming days.  So, films like Herzog' Bucking Fastard and Gray's Paper Tiger could still have their World Premiere next month in France.

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Looking at "Too Early" Oscar Predictions for Clues / And What About Cannes?...Screen Daily

 LOOKING AT "TOO EARLY" OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR CLUES

As I have mentioned...it's time to turn our attention more fully to TFF #53.  One way to sort of begin to make a list is to look at what the Oscarologists think might be films in play for Oscar #99.  To that end, I'm looking at the first picks from Matt Neglia and Next Best Picture.  They posted on March 18th.  From their list, here are what I feel like the most likely contenders are for Telluride (with director, release date and distributor, if known.  (*** indicates the director has had a previous TFF entry):

1949 (Fatherland?)/Pawlikowski***/MUBI

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Artificial/Guadagnino***/Amazon-MGM

At the Sea/Mundruczo (played Berlin)

Being Heumann/Heder/Apple TV

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Bucking Fastard/Herzog***

Digger/Inarritu***/Oct. 2nd/Warner Brothers

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Here Comes the Flood/Meirelles***/Netflix

Jack of Spades/J. Coen***

Look Back/Kore-eda***

Narnia: The Magician's Nephew/Gerwig***/Nov. 26th/Netflix

Paper Tiger/Gray***

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Saturn Return/Kwedar/Netflix

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Project/Eisenberg***/Dec. 3rd/A24

Wild Horse Nine/McDonagh/Nov. 6th/Searchlight

Next Best Picture's complete list is here.

AND WHAT ABOUT CANNES?...SCREEN DAILY

I'm also continuing speculation about what might be announced for Cannes on April 9th and looking for signs of films that might complete the Cannes to Telluride double play.  From Screen Daily on March 13th.  The titles in the article are generally listed geographically. Films are listed with director, release date and distributor, if known.  *** indicates the director has had a previous TFF entry:

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

Paper Tiger/Gray***

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

1949 (Fatherland?)/Pawlikowski***/MUBI

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Coward/Dhont***

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Screen Daily's complete post is linked here.

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Now...Down to Business / Latest Cannes Speculation from World of Reel

NOW ...DOWN TO BUSINESS

Oscar has come a gone...finally.  Lot's of discourse now about the Oscar season being too long this year.  I kind of have to agree.

MTFB is ready to move on to the primary effort for this space...noodling possible titles for TFF #53.  That process has been lightly touched on since the turn of the calendar from 2025 to 2026 with a couple of looks at various "Most Anticipated" list of film for this year.  We have also taken a snapshot of possible Cannes titles as the venerable French fest frequently is represented at Telluride often with six to eight titles.

As we move into this phase I have found looking at the "Too Early" Oscar predictions for the year to be useful as a predicting tool.  I checked last year and that Oscar spec yielded up to seven films that eventually ended up on the TFF #52 lineup.  We'll also continue to monitor the potential Cannes field until that announcement comes on April 9th.  The fest itself will run May 12-23.

LATEST CANNES SPECULATION FROM WORLD OF REEL

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel keeps a really good eye on the buzz concerning which films will premiere as part of the Cannes Film Festival.  That's good for us as, on average, six to eight Cannes titles traditionally make their way to Telluride.

Consequently, we put our ear to the ground to his latest Cannes speculation piece posted on March 11th.

From his various sections, here are what seem to me the most probable candidates to play both Cannes and then T-ride:

Predicted Cannes Competition titles that might play TFF #53:

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar

Fjord/Mungiu

Jack of Spades/Coen

Minotaur/Zvyaginstev

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi

Parallel Tales/Farhadi

Coward/Dhont

1949/Pawlikowski

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda

Butterfly Jam/Bagalov

"Possibilities"

The Long Winter/Haigh

Let Love In/Van Groeningen

Bucking Fastards/Herzog

"French Contenders"

Moulin/Nemes

Among titles that Ruimy says are now "unlikely: for Cannes but that could still make a Telluride play:

Paper Tiger/Gray

The Way of the Wind/Malick

Untitled Mike Leigh Film

Digger/Inarritu

The complete World of Reel list is here.

I'll take a look at early Oscar predictions in Monday's post.

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