Late Breaking from Toronto / The Palm Under Water / Rebecca Hall Is Your TFF #53 Guest Director / This and That /

LATE BREAKING FROM TORONTO

The Toronto Fest announced a number of titles for TFF 2026 and from their premiere designations we can infer that the following films are likely playing Telluride:

A Long Winter

Elsinore

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Fjord

Minotaur

Ink

The debut

Tender Loving Care

and others.

Not going to Telluride:

Coward (the biggest surprise to me)

All of a Sudden

Bunker

Prima Facie

Bitter Christmas

Clarissa

More to come...

THE PALM UNDER WATER

Although not strictly a story about The SHOW...it is.  Telluride endured a substantial mudslide last Friday and The Palm and the Intermediate and Middle schools were all affected.  The Palm especially.  A breach in a loading door allowed immense amounts of water and move to move into The Palm Theater.  Heres' the pic that has been most prevalent coming out of Telluride (the photo is from The Telluride Times):

That's the floor of The Palm.

How does affect the fest?  Will it affect the Fest?

More details can be found here from The Telluride Times.

https://www.telluridenews.com/news/article_32546b30-de8d-4012-8929-88d83de86934.html

Stay tuned.

REBECCA HALL IS YOUR TFF#53 GUEST DIRECTOR

The Telluride Film Festival has named actress-director-writer Rebecca Hall to act as Guest Director for its 53rd edition.  Here's the scuttlebutt from Tellurideinside.com:

Festival organizers annually select one of the world’s great film enthusiasts to join them in the creation of the Festival’s program lineup. The Guest Director serves as a key collaborator in Telluride Film Festival’s programming decisions, bringing new ideas, unique perspectives and overlooked films to the gathering. In keeping with Telluride Film Festival tradition, Hall’s film selections, along with the rest of the Festival lineup, will remain a secret until just before Opening Day.

“Rebecca Hall is a unique and brilliant person with an extraordinary basket of gifts who embodies the magical combination we look for in a Guest Director,” comments Telluride Film Festival director Julie Huntsinger. “Whether she is acting, writing or directing, her work reflects an uncommon curiosity, intelligence and generosity of spirit – and she is adventurous to boot! She approaches cinema with the same thoughtfulness that she brings to every creative endeavor, and we know her wonderful background and perspective will make her an inspired Guest Director. We are thrilled to welcome Rebecca to Telluride and can’t wait to experience the films that have shaped and continue to inspire her remarkable artistic journey.”

Rebecca Hall is a celebrated British-American actress, writer and director whose work spans independent films, major studio productions, television and the stage. She will next star in Adam Wingard’s A24 action thriller “Onslaught” and appears in the upcoming season of Netflix’s “Monster,” as well as “The Man I Love” and “The End of It,” both of which premiered at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. Hall recently completed production on the zombie thriller “Zero Protocol” and is set to write, direct and star in “Four Days Like Sunday.”

Hall made her directorial debut with “Passing,” which premiered at the Sundance Film Festival to widespread critical acclaim and earned BAFTA nominations for Outstanding British Film and Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer. As an actor, she has received Golden Globe, BAFTA, Independent Spirit, Critics’ Choice, Gotham and Screen Actors Guild Award nominations for performances in films including “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”; Christine,Peter Hujar’s Day, “The Town”; “The Prestige”; “The Night House”; “Godzilla vs. Kong”; and “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire.”

Her distinguished career also includes award-winning work in television and lauded performances on both the West End and Broadway.

“This will be my first time at Telluride,” says Rebecca. “But I’ve been hearing tales of this annual utopian film community for years, always alongside sentences like ‘the one filmmakers love the most.’ ‘Your favorite film festival’s favorite film festival.’ ‘The one where you get to watch more films than promote them.’ I always hoped I’d get to come with a film, so to get to bring 6 films feels like an incredible act of generosity on the part of the universe. I can’t wait to watch all of them with you.”

Past Guest Directors include Laurie Anderson, Peter Bogdanovich, John Boorman, Guillermo Cabrera Infante, Don DeLillo, Jean-Pierre Gorin, Buck Henry, Pico Iyer, Barry Jenkins, Edith Kramer, Rachel Kushner, Jonathan Lethem, Phillip Lopate, Guy Maddin, Errol Morris, Michael Ondaatje, Joshua Oppenheimer, Alexander Payne, B. Ruby Rich, Salman Rushdie, Peter Sellars, John Simon, Volker Schlöndorff, Stephen Sondheim, Bertrand Tavernier, Caetano Veloso and Slavoj Žižek.

THIS AND THAT

Interesting notes from the past four days:

***James Gray's Paper Tiger has been named the opening night film for the New York Film Festival and is billed as a World Premiere.  That means the film, which I have had consistently as one my Ten Best for The SHOW, will not be screening at The SHOW...unless some behind-the-scenes action turns it into a "sneak" at TFF.

***Sources say that Aaron Sorkin's The Social Reckoning will not be ready for Venice in time.  That would mean it also won't be ready for Telluride either.  

***World of Reel reports that Joel Coen's Jack of Spades is likely not releasing until next year-so no Telluride.

***Danny Boyle's Ink has been chosen to open The Venice Film Fest,  It will screen on Sept, 2nd giving it a window to also make the TFF #53 lineup.  Additionally Ink has been acquired by Netflix which doesn't hurt its Telluride chances.

***Gold Derby hints at Telluride slots for Behemoth! and The Debut in an article about the selection of Rebecca Hall as TFF #53's Guest Director.

https://www.goldderby.com/film/2026/rebecca-hall-telluride-2026-guest-director-movie-slate-dates/

***The Toronto International Film Festival announced five titles for its latest edition.  Of note was the billing of  The Alpha Gang as an International Premiere which could indicate a play at Telluride.  The only other possible explanation I can come up with is that TIFF and Fantastic Fest overlap...barely.  TIFF runs Sept. 10-20 and Fantastic Fest run Sept. 17-24.  I suppose that Alpha Gang could play Fantastic Fest early and Toronto late and that would explain TIFF labeling the film as an International Premiere.  We'll have to wait on the film announcements from Fantastic Fest for further clarity.

IONCINEMA GUESSES FOR VENICE

Ioncinema took a shot at guessing some Venetian possibilities and also, inadvertently made some claims about Telluride possibilities in and post from Saturday.  In the article they mention four of their Venice guesses as possibly going to T-ride as well:

Behemoth!

The Debut

Wild Horse Nine

Musk

Among other titles they predict for Venice there are some that I think have some Telluride crossover chances:

Bucking Fastard

Bunker

Tender Loving Care

The Basics of Philosophy

Here Comes the Flood

We should see the Venice lineup announcement this week sometime.  Of more import following that will be the Venice schedule which can give hints as to possible Telluride films.

The link to the Ioncinema post is here.

https://www.ioncinema.com/news/film-festivals/2026-venice-film-festival-projecting-the-lido-lineup

FILM DATING

Newly announced release dates for some films that could be in the mix for Telluride:

Musk Oct. 16th.

Club Kid Nov. 6th

All of a Sudden Nov. 25th.

Tender Loving Care Dec. 4th.

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Ten Bets for TFF #53-Vol.5 / Who's Got What? Distributors: Mubi / Is Behemoth! Coming? / Next Best Picture Guesses Telluride (and other fall fests)

TEN BETS FOR TFF #53-VOL.5

The countdown to TFF #53 grows shorter and shorter.  

Here's the fifth installment of MTFB's Ten Bets, the weekly guess at what films make the Telluride lineup.  We start with a reminder of last week's bets:

Artificial

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Elsinore

Fatherland

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.

If you read last Monday's post you'll recall that Neon has reversed course on Luca Guadagnino's Artificial and, at least for now, are avowing that the film "isn't likely to go down the standard festival route"  which Deadline points out does not preclude some festival appearance.  Heck, Deadline even says they think it will likely will be at some festival.  As a matter of fact, Deadline's language doesn't shut the door on Artificial at TFF but rather, sounds like Telluride might be the most likely landing spot:

"That doesn’t mean it won’t pop up at a festival in some form (we bet it will), but it won’t have the traditional launch with the bells and whistles of a red carpet, press conference, junkets, etc."

So, I'm moving Artificial to the list of possibles and Andrew Haigh's A Long Winter back into the Ten Bets:

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Elsinore

A Long Winter

Fatherland

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Other possibilities: Artificial, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.

A couple of other notes... 

For Ten Bets #6 next week I'll begin to actually list the films in order of likelihood to play...

And we should get some news from Toronto which should be informative.

WHO'S GOT WHAT? DISTRIBUTORS: MUBI

MTFB continues its look at the film distribution companies that have had the largest profiles at the Telluride Film Festival over the past five years in an effort to, perhaps, set the table for films that could be headed to TFF #53.  Up to this point for 2026 we have examined: Netflix, Neon, Sony Pictures Classics, Focus Features and A24. Each of those outfits have averaged two or more films at TFF in that time span.

Today we look at Mubi, which has had nine films at Telluride since 2021 but whose footprint has increased over the last couple of years.  Additionally Mubi could potentially provide more films to TFF #53 than any other distributor.

Here's Mubi's history over the last five years:

2021: Unclenching the Fists.

2022: No films.

2023: Fallen Leaves, High & Low: John Galliano, Tehachapi.

2024: Bird.

2025: The History of Sound, King Hamlet, La Grazia, Mastermind.

And these are the films in the Mubi warehouse we think might be TFF possibilities (with their chance of making the lineup):

Coward 70%

Fatherland 65%

A Long Winter 55%

Minotaur 50%

Rose 40%

Hope 25%

NEXT BEST PICTURE GUESSES TELLIRIDE (AND OTHER FALL FESTS)

Matt Neglia and his crew at Next Best Picture have posted a massive list of films for each of the four major "fall" film fests: Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York.  Looking at his T-ride list is intriguing,  Here it is with films on the MTFB Ten Bets (and possibilities) list indicated with ***.

All Of A Sudden (Ryusuki Hamaguchi)

American Doctor (Poh Si Teng)

Artificial (Luca Guadagnino)***

Behemoth! (Tony Gilroy)

Bitter Christmas (Pedro Almodóvar)

Bucking Fastard (Werner Herzog)***

Club Kid (Jordan Firstman)***

Coward (Lukas Dhont)***

The Debut (Jesse Eisenberg)***

Elsinore (Simon Stone)***

Fatherland (Paweł Pawlikowski)***

Fjord (Cristian Mungiu)***

Iron Boy (Louis Clichy)

Josephine (Beth de Araújo)

La Bola Negra (Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi)***

La Gradiva (Marine Atlan)

A Long Winter (Andrew Haigh)***

Minotaur (Andrey Zvyagintsev)***

Mouse (Kelly O’Sullivan and Alex Thompson)

The Only Living Pick Pocket In New York (Noah Segan)

Primetime (Lance Oppenheim)

Rehearsals for a Revolution (Pegah Ahangarani)

Rose (Markus Schleinzer)

Saturn Return (Greg Kwedar)

The Unknown (Arthur Harari)

Yellow Letters (İlker Çatak)***

Couple of notes:

Films on the NBP list that are not currently a "Bet" by MTFB but are on the radar are: Behemoth!, Bitter Christmas, La Gradiva, Primetime, Rose and Saturn Return.

Josephine and The Only Living Pickpocket in New York were Sundance selections which doesn't rule them out for Telluride, but it's uncommon for a film to screen both places.

Next Best Pictures' complete set of lists is linked here.

https://nextbestpicture.com/predicting-the-2026-fall-film-festival-lineups-for-venice-telluride-tiff-nyff/

IS BEHEMOTH! COMING?

Lot's of buzz early this week with first look photos and a trailer for Tony Gilroy's Behemoth!  The film stars Pedro Pascal and is described at IMDb like this:

"Follows a musician from a family of musicians who returns to Los Angeles. A love letter to the music of the movies and the people who make it."

Behemoth! is being distributed by Searchlight and there is a good deal of speculation that it will be making a fall film fest run though whether that would include Telluride is very uncertain at this point.

Here's an image from the Vanity Fair article:

In addition, Searchlight dropped a trailer on Tuesday.  Here that is from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7T64gVlcc1I&t=99s

Searchlight hasn't yet announced a release date from the film.

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Ten Bets for TFF #53-Vol. 4 / Pause: Moves This Week... / Back to the 4th Ten Bets / Who's Got What? Distributors: Focus Features

TEN BETS FOR TFF #53-VOL. 4

Last week's Ten Bets list:

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Fatherland

Fjord

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Yellow Letters

Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Artificial and The Story of Documentary Film.

PAUSE: MOVES THIS WEEK...

We'll get to the new Ten Bets after this ...

Variety reports that hot property Elsinore starring Andrew Scott and Olivia Colman has been acquired by Focus Features after what they report as a:

"a competitive bidding war among several studios for the Simon Stone-directed drama"

MTFB has been following the emergence of the film since last week marking it as a late breaking possibility for TFF #53.  Variety's tory on the acquisition by Focus also had something to say about that:

"Sources tell Variety that programmers at each of the fall festivals — Venice, Telluride, Toronto and New York — are circling the title, though a premiere venue has yet to be set."

The Playlist  underscored the point reporting that:

"(Elsinore) is also a movie that, like “Artificial,” has gotten into every festival it has screened for."

The way I read that is that all four fests are eager to program the film and now it's matter of what Focus wants to do...where they wan to with the film.  It sure doesn't slow down the speculation that it might well be included for The SHOW.

Add that to the other notices last week that Artificial had been invited by "all the major fall festivals" per The Playlist.  

On top of that, Jesse Eisenberg's The Debut seems to be picking up steam with his claim that the film will debut at a fall film fest.  Don't discount that A Real Pain played Telluride nor should we ignore that Emma Stone, who we believe is a big fan of Telluride, is/was a producer for both films.  

All of this has altered the new Ten Bets from last week.  Which leads us back to...

Here's the complete story from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/awards/focus-features-elsinore-andrew-scott-acquisition-1236801625/

And also from The Playlist.

https://theplaylist.net/halfway-to-oscars-2027-project-hail-mary-la-bola-negra-digger-andrew-scott-20260701/

BACK TO THE 4TH TEN BETS

Here's your latest Ten Bets for TFF #53...

Artificial

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Elsinore

Fatherland

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.

WHO'S GOT WHAT? DISTRIBUTORS: FOCUS FEATURES

I MTFB's continuing look at common distributors of films that make the Telluride lineup we turn for Focus Features which, over the last five years, has been the fourth most ubiquitou distributor at TFF.  They've screened 11 films at The SHOW in that time:

2021: Belfast, The Card Counter.

2022: TAR, Armageddon Time.

2023: The Holdovers, The Bikeriders

2024: Conclave, Piece by Piece.

2025: Hamnet, Bugonia, Hamlet.

11 films, six of which were nominated for Best Picture.  That's an impressive list.  So going into TFF #53 you have to think Focus will have at least two films make the grade... Here's their most likely applicants:

(The newly acquired) Elsinore, Sense and Sensibility, Hope and The Uprising.

Chances for TFF #53:

Elsinore 70%

Sense and Sensibility 40%

Hope 25%

The Uprising 20%

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Ten Bets for TFF #53 Vol. 3 / Who's Got What: Distributors-Neon / Dating News

TEN BETS FOR TFF #53 VOL. 3

Here's the new update of MTFB's Ten Bets for TFF #53.  First, last week's bets:

The Black Ball

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Fatherland

Fjord

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Yellow Letters

Other possibilities: A Long Winter and The Story of Documentary Film.

Now a look at this week's Ten Bets and Other Possibilities:

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Fatherland

Fjord

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Yellow Letters

Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Artificial and The Story of Documentary Film.

WHO'S GOT WHAT: DISTRIBUTORS-NEON

I'm continuing my look at distributors who have a significant presence at Telluride over the past five years.  Last Monday we started with Netflix, which has been the most ubiquitous in the half decade.  Today we look at Neon...the 2nd most "present" outfit since 2021 with 15 films over that span:

2021: Flee, Petite Maman, Spencer, Three Minutes...a Lengthening.

2022: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Broker.

2023: Anatomy of a Fall, La Chimera, Perfect Days, The Royal Hotel.

2024: Anora, The End, The Seed of the Sacred Fig.

2025: It Was Just an Accident, Sentimental Value.

And the Neon larder is stacked with primarily Cannes Fest films and a new addition just this week:

All of a Sudden (Hamaguchi)

Clarissa (Erisi/Erisi)

Fjord (Mungiu)

Hope (Hong-Jin)

Paper Tiger (Gray)

A Place in Hell (Dumont)

Sheep in the Box (Kore-eda)

The Unknown (Hariri)

And the late breaking addition (and non-Cannes film) Luca Guadagnino's Artificial.  Neon picked this up after Amazon-MGM decided they would not release it.  Artificial had been a film I have been keeping an eye on re: TFF #53 but Amazon-MGM had made noise that it was going to premiere at South by Southwest and release in 2027 which moved it right off the MTFB watch list.

Neon has already made it clear they intend to place the film square in the middle of the upcoming Oscar season and there is a good deal of buzz that it will be submitted for Venice.  All this puts it back on the table as a TFF #53 potential selection. So much so, in fact, you'll note that it has already made the list of "Other Possibilities" in this week's "Ten Bets".

As to the other eight Neon possibles and their chances?  

Paper Tiger 70%

Fjord 50%

Clarissa 50%

All of a Sudden 40%

Hope 25%

A Place in Hell 25%

Artificial??? Say 45% for right now.

[Revised 7-13-26]

We'll look at Sony Pictures Classics (SPC) on Monday.

DATING NEWS

There have been a number of notices for release dates for some films that could be under considration for TFF:

Sense and Sensibility: Sept. 25.

Fjord: Oct. 9.

Saturn Return: Oct. 9.

Klara and the Sun: Oct. 23.

Wild Horse Nine: Nov. 6.

Minotaur: Nov. 20.

Clarissa Dec. 25.

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A Legend of TFF Passes / Ten Bets for TFF #53 Vol. 2 / Trailers!

 A LEGEND OF TFF PASSES

Jim Bedford passed away on Saturday, June 20th, 2026.  He was 81.  

Bedford, "BF" to his friends, was a giant part of the Telluride Film Festival from the very beginning listed as the Fest's Telluride "coordinator" right below the founders of the fest in the 1974 program for TFF #1.

The only reason I know that is that I have a duplicated copy of that first year's program courtesy of Mr. Bedford.  I also have an original copy of every Telluride program  since then, again courtesy of Mr. Bedford.

He seemed to be a fan of the blog,  particularly the "history of the fest pages" that you can look at by clicking the links at the bottom of the masthead/MTFB logo at the top of this page.  All of the work that I did to put that together a few years back that covers 1974-2005 comes from those programs.

Mr. Bedford and I  had exchanged some emails over the years so we, weren't strangers, but I had never met him face-to-face until a couple of years ago.  That came about as a result of an invitation from him for me to join in a annual meet-up held during each festival.  The purpose of the meeting each year is to raise a glass to all the folks who had been a part of the TFF family, particularly on the technical side of the fest, who had passed since the previous year's fest.

I was very deeply moved that I was asked to be any part of this ceremony.  I still am.

I was fortunate enough to be asked back again last year and actually got to spend some time with "BF" (He'll always be Mr. Bedford to me.  Too much respect for what the man did...and that's not even mentioning the legacy of KOTO radio in Telluride).  He was very encouraging about this space.  

Mr. Bedford's last program credit for TFF came in 2010 with the 37th Fest.

I don't think it's hyperbole to suggest that without Jim Bedford there might not be a Telluride Film Festival. 

So here's to Jim Bedford.  He was kind and thoughtful and loved the SHOW.

TEN BETS  FOR TFF #53: VOL. 2

Here's the first update of MTFB's Ten Bets for TFF #53'  First, last week's bets:

The Black Ball

Bucking Fastard

Coward

The Debut

Fatherland

A Long Winter

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

The Story of Documentary Film

Yellow Letters

This week we add in a couple of films and move a couple to the "Other possibilities" list:

The Black Ball

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Fatherland

Fjord

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Yellow Letters

Other possibilities: A Long Winter and The Story of Documentary Film.

We'll have an updated list again next Thursday.

TRAILERS!

THE DEBUT

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clyzHmBx43E

SHEEP IN THE BOX

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5mlc8TAPNw

KLARA AND THE SUN

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlwmEqQv82M

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50 Fall Film Possibilities 2026 / The Travails of Guadagnino

50 FALL FILM POSSIBILITIES 2026

Ezra Cubero writing for Silver Screen Express has posted his annual set of speculations about which films might go where as regards Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York.  It's an interesting take with some surprises.

Cubero had 11 films on his list last year the did make the TFF #52 lineup.

I culled the post and began by creating a list of the films that Cubero thinks have some shot at the TFF #53 lineup.  It's a lengthy list which follows below (with director listed to the right).  He has three categories..."Possible". "Could Happen" and "Nope".

Telluride "Possibles"

All of a Sudden

Behemoth!

The Black Ball+++

Coward+++

The Debut+++

Fatherland+++

Fjord

Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty!**

Josephine**

A Long Winter+++

Minotaur+++

Mouse

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York**

Paper Tiger+++

Prima Facie

Rose

Sense and Sensibility

Tender Loving Care

The Weight**

Among the "Could Be's":

Being Heumann

Bitter Christmas

Club Kid

The Dreamed Adventure

Look Back

A Place in Hell

Primetime

Saturn Return

Tangled

+++ Indicates the film's presence on MTFB's first Ten Bets for TFF #53

** Indicates a Sundance Fest film which usually mitigates a film's chances at playing Telluride.

Of note, Cubero lists Herzog's Bucking Fastard as a "No" for TFF #53.  I feel pretty good about its chances.

The complete list of 50 films can be found here.

https://silverscreenxpress.wordpress.com/2026/06/17/50-potential-films-at-the-fall-film-festivals-2026/

THE TRAVAILS OF GUADAGNINO

There was a time that I had Lucas Guadagnino's Artificial on my TFF #53 watch list.  The film was housed at Amazon-MGM and Guadagnino's past with films at Telluride (Bones and All, Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams) made it seem like a good bet.  Then it was announced the film would open in 2027 and that took it right out of my speculation.

New turns have made the film's future murky.  Reportedly Amazon-MGM has cut ties with the film and are seeking a buyer for it;  Word is that A24, NEON, Netflix and Focus Features and others have seen the film but as of this morning, no deal has been made.

If Artificial lands at any of the aforementioned distributors that could, conceivably, put it back into play for fall fests including Telluride.

The IMDb description for the films:

"Follows the confusing firing and rehiring cycle of Sam Altman at OpenAI where the board gained control of the company and removed him, and Altman still returned."

Stay tuned.

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Ten Bets for TFF #53, Vol. 1 / World of Reel on Venice Titles

TEN BETS FOR TFF #53, VOL. 1

Well, here it is (Live from the 2026 National Speech and Debate Tournament in Richmond, VA.) the first Ten Bets for 2026 for TFF #53.  I'm doing this a little differently than in the past in that I am listing the early versions of the Ten Bets in alphabetical order.  In the later going, as we get closer to The SHOW, I'll revert to the traditional ranking in order of what I think the chances are of making a TFF appearance.

So here are the first guesses (10 of them) for films at TFF #53 (in the aforementioned alphabetical order):

The Black Ball

Bucking Fastard

Coward

The Debut

Fatherland

A Long Winter

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

The Story of Documentary Film

Yellow Letters

As the weeks unfold, I'll update every Thursday as new info and rumors swirl.  Additionally, as we get closer to Labor Day, I'll also expand the list beyond a mere ten bets.

I'll remind readers that MTFB averages about six correct guesses on each year's initial Ten Bets.  I also have to tell you that there are some titles here that I'd be very excited about seeing.

Let the next few weeks tell the story! 

WORLD OF REEL ON VENICE TITLES

Jordan Ruimy has a list of possible Venice titles.  Many MTFB readers know that each year a number of films play the early part of Venice and then make a blazing trans-continental trip to the San Juans. 

From WOR's Venice speculative list, here's my take on what might make the trip:

Bucking Fastard

Here Comes the Flood

Tender Loving Care

Wild Horse Nine

Look Back

The Basics of Philosophy 

A Long Winter

Bunker

The Social Reckoning

Elon

The complete list is linked here.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/6/16/david-finchers-cliff-booth-wont-premiere-at-venice

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Film Fest Heads Discuss the Future / Awards Radar Updates for Best Picture and TFF Potentials

 FILM FEST HEADS DISCUSS THE FUTURE

A couple of weeks back Indiewire hosted a conversation at Cannes  featuring four film festival directors including Telluride's Julie Huntsinger.  Other fest directors included were from Sundance, Berlin and New York.  The convo was hosted by Indiewire's Anne Thompson.

The focus was the future of film festivals.  You can see the entire 44 minute video at Indiewire's website.

That video and article are linked here.

https://www.indiewire.com/news/events/film-festival-directors-discuss-future-cannes-1235195002/

AWARDS RADAR UPDATES FOR BEST PICTURE AND TFF POTENTIALS

Joey Magidson of Awards Watch has updates his Best Picture predictions as of the end of the Cannes Film Fest.  He lists 25 films in all and in their order of likelihood in terms of being nominated and winning the 2027 Oscar.  I've broken those down into various categories as it relates to the potential for a TFF #53 play.

No chance: (Because they already have premiered before Telluride): 

#2 The Odyssey

#4 Project Hail Mary

#9 Tony

#11 Disclosure Day

#14 Josephine (Sundance) 

#21 The Invite

#24 Wuthering Heights

#25 Michael

Unlikely: (for a variety of reasons):

#1 Dune: Part Three

#6 Digger

#8 The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Smallish chance at Telluride:

#3 Wild Horse Nine

#5 The Social Reckoning

#10 Saturn Return

#12 I Play Rocky

#13 Being Heumann

#16 The Uprising

#17 Behemoth!

#19 Jack of  Spades

#20 A Place in Hell

Decent chance at Telluride:

#7 Fjord

#15 Paper Tiger

#18 Clarissa

#22 All of a Sudden

#23 Artificial

 

Here are all of Magidson's predictions complete with commentary.

https://awardsradar.com/best-picture/

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Neglia Takes a Stab / Black Ball Teaser / Acquisition News Out of Cannes

NEGLIA TAKES A STAB

Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture (and remember Matt was on the ground in Cannes for the first two thirds or so) posted on his X account on Monday some speculation about where all of the Cannes' Palme d'Or competition films might go during the upcoming fall film fest frenzy.  Of the 22, Matt has named 8 films that he thinks may be a part of the TFF #53 lineup...

Again, Matt's predictions: All of a Sudden, Bitter Christmas, The Black Ball, Coward, Fatherland, Fjord, Minotaur and Paper Tiger.

I'm most interested in Paper Tiger, Fatherland and Coward.  Could get interested in Fjord, Minotaur and All of a Sudden.

THE BLACK BALL TEASER

We have a teaser from The Black Ball, which we're on TFF#53 alert for.  Could it be in Telluride on Labor Day weekend?

Here it is via YouTube and MovieStar Plus:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAZ8aVMfAUw

ACQUISITION NEWS OUT OF CANNES

Deadline reports that Netflix has acquired The Black Ball for distribution and Gentle Monster as well. The pick-up doesn't either hurt a film's chances for a play at Telluride as Netflix has become a very visible presence at the fest for the last several years.

Here's the Deadline article.

https://deadline.com/2026/05/netflix-cannes-lea-seydoux-gentle-monster-1236919715/

Meanwhile, MUBI has grabbed the North American distribution rights for Kukas Dhont's Coward.  That's also a move that doesn't hurt the prospects for Coward to be at TFF.  Dhont has previously presented two films at Telluride: Girl in 2018 and Close in 2022.

Here's that story from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/news/coward-lukas-dhont-mubi-north-american-rights-1236755499/

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Prize Winners from Cannes / Stacking Up with the Recent Past / What the Ratings Suggest

PRIZE WINNERS FROM CANNES

It's all over in France.  The 79th Cannes Film Festival closed with its awards ceremony on Saturday evening and Cristian Mungiu's Fjord won the Palme d'Or.  It was Mungiu's second Palme win after having won previously for Four Years, Three Weeks, Two Days back in 2007.  That film played the Telluride Film festival.

Complete winners from the Palme d'Or official competition:

Palme d'Or: Fjord (Mungiu)

Grand Prix: Minotaur (Zvyaginastev)

Jury Prize: The Dreamed Adventure (Grisebach)

Best Direction (Tie): Fatherland (Pawelkowski) and The Black Ball (Calvo and Ambrossi)

Best Screenplay: A Man of His Time (Marre)

Best Actress (Tie): All of a Sudden (Efira and Okamoto)

Best Actor (Tie): Coward (Macchia and Campagne)

STACKING UP WITH THE RECENT PAST

For comparison's sake, here's a winner of the same categories over the last five years with eventual TFF selections indicated with an *.

2025

Palme d'Or: It Was Just an Accident (Panahi)*

Grand Prix: Sentimental Value (Trier)*

Jury Prize: (Tie) Sirat (Laxe) and The Sound of Falling (Schilinski)

Best Direction: The Secret Agent (Mendonca)*

Best Screenplay: Young Mothers (Luc and Jean-Pierre Dardennes)

Best Actress: The Little Sister (Nadia Melliti)

Best Actor (Tie): The Secret Agent (Wagner Moura)*

Special Prize: Ressurection (Gan)

2024

Palme d'Or: Anora (Baker)*

Grand Prix: All We Imagine as Light (Kapadia)*

Jury Prize: Emilia Perez (Audiard)*

Best Direction: Grand Tour (Gomes)

Best Screenplay: The Substance (Fargeat)

Best Actress: Emilia Perez (Gascon, Saldana, Gomez and Paz)*

Best Actor: Kinds of Kindness (Plemons)

Special Prize: The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Rasoulof)*

2023

Palme d'Or: Anotomy of a Fall (Triet)*

Grand Prix: The Zone of Interest (Glazer)*

Jury Prize: Fallen Leaves (Kaurismaki)*

Best Direction: The Taste of Things (Tran Ahn Hung)*

Best Screenplay: Monster (Sakamoto, dir: Kore-eda)

Best Actress: About Dry Grasses (Merve Dizdar)

Best Actor: Fallen Leaves (Koji Yakoshu)*

2022

Palme d'Or: Triangle of Sadness (Ostlund)

Grand Prix: (Tie): Stars at Noon (Denis) and Close (Dhont)*

Jury Prize: (Tie): Eo (Skolimowski) and Eight Mountains (Vandermeersch and Groeningen)

Best Direction: Decision to Leave (Chan-wook)

Best Screenplay: Boy from Heaven (Saleh)

Best Actress: Holy Spider (Amir Ebrahimi)*

Best Actor: Broker (Kang-ho)*

Special 75th Anniversary Prize: Tori and Lokita (Dardennes)*

2021

Palme d'Or: Titane (Ducournau)

Grand Prix: (Tie): Compartment  No. 6 (Kuosmanen) and A Hero (Farhadi)*

Jury Prize: (Tie): Ahed's Knee (Lapid) and Memoria (Weerasethakul)

Best Direction: Annette (Carax)

Best Screenplay: Drive My Car (Hamaguchi)

Best Actress: The Worst Person in the World (Renate Reinsve)

Best Actor: Nitram (Caleb Landry Jones)

As you can see, winning the Plame d'Or isn't a guarantee that a film will play at TFF although the last three have.

As to the rest of the categories, here's where they stand over the five years with winners then being a part of TFF:

Grand Prix: 5 (it's the most solid category in terms of a Cannes/Telluride connection).

Jury Prize: 2

Director: 2

Screenplay: 0

Actress: 2

Actor: 3

Special Prizes: 2

So your best odds by this metric favor 2026 Grand Prix winner Minotaur.

Next best are for Palme winners and Best Actor which would point toward: Fjord and Coward.

After that it gets very murky...

WHAT THE RATINGS SUGGEST

Taking a look at Cannes results over the last five years that have made the connection between Cannes and Telluride is, at the least interesting, and may be instructive as to anticipating what films might make that journey this year.

First, the average number of films that do the Telluride/Cannes two step seems to have increased over the past five years.  Here's the number that have made it since 2021:

2021-7

2022-9

2023-10

2024-8

2025-9

That averages out to 8.6 films each year.

Now, using the ratings from Cannes-ratings.org, where did these 43 films land on their 10point scale?

2021:

A Hero 7.30

Red Rocket 7.30

The French Dispatch 7.11

Bergman Island 7.09

The Velvet Underground 6.83

Cow 6.80

Unclenching the Fists 6.24

2022:

The Pupils 8.37

Aftersun 8.17

Close 7.76

Broker 7.47

Godland 7.38

One Fine Morning 7.34

Armageddon Time 6.90

Holy Spider 6.70

Tori and Lokita 6.32

2023:

The Zone of Interest 8.19

Perfect Days 7.91

Anatomy of a Fall 7.90

Fallen Leaves 7.46

La Chimera 7.46

The Taste of Things 7.01

Occupied City 6.97

Anselm 6.41

Little Girl Blue 6.21

Room 999 (no ratings found)

2024:

Anora 8.35

Misericordia 7.47

Bird 7.45

Emilia Perez 7.42

All We Imagine as Light 7.02

The Apprentice 6.94

Santosh 6.07

2025:

Sentimental Value 8.04

It Was Just an Accident 7.75

Pillion 7.30

Nouvelle Vague 7.23

Urchin 7.15

A Private Life 6.99

Mastermind 6.29

The History of Sound 5.81

43 films in all with 2025's The History of Sound being the lowest rated film to be picked up of any of the 43 by TFF.

The vast majority of films clear the 6.5 bar.  That's true for 35 of he 43 films listed above.  So what do this year's ratings signal, if anything?

Using the 6.5 or above metric and also being a little sly about films that are on the MTFB watch list, here's some takeaways:

32 films in all sections of Cannes #79 were above the 6.5 threshold. Among them, here are some films that I have on the MTFB watch list and where they are on the Cannes-ratings.org list:

#7) All of a Sudden 7.39

#10) Coward 7.28

#11) Minotaur 7.03

#21) Fjord 6.69

Other films that made enough of a splash that could earn them spots on the MTFB Watch List:

#1 Club Kid 8.37

#13 The Dreamed Adventure 6.94

#15 The Black Ball 6.91

#24 Avedon 6.50

#31 Clarissa 6.43

MTFB Watch list films that may have taken a hit:

#40 Fatherland 6.15

#42 Paper Tiger 6.15

#43 Hope 6.14

Off the top 50 grid so...you know...

Moulin 5.73

Gentle Monster 4.66

Sheep in the Box 4.53

Parallel Tales 4.22

The Unknown 4.14

Draw your own conclusions...the first official "Ten Bets" for TFF #53 drops on June18th.

More on Thursday!

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Cannes Continues / Some Buzz from Eisenberg / Mike Leigh Has a Title

 CANNES CONTINUES

The 79th Cannes Film Fest has passed its halfway mark and is barreling toward its conclusion this weekend. Taking a look at the metrics from Screen Daily, Ioncinema and Cannes-ratings.org, here are the films that seem to be at the forefront critically (*** indicates that the film is on my TFF watch list):

From Screen Daily (films in Palme competition with a better than 2.5 rating on a four point scale):

1) Fatherland 3.3***

2) All of a Sudden 3.1***

3) Paper Tiger 2.8***

3) Hope 2.8***

5) Naji Notes 2.5

The complete Screen Daily chart is linked here.

https://edition.pagesuite-professional.co.uk/html5/reader/production/default.aspx?pubname=&edid=7d45952f-7ff1-4ba7-b98c-78b6cf24da1e

From Ioncinema (films in Palme competition with a better than 3.0 rating on a five point scale):

1) Fatherland 3.7***

2) Fjord 3.5***

3) All of a Sudden 3.3***

4) Paper Tiger 3.2***

4) The Beloved 3.2

6) Hope 3.1***

The complete Ioncinema grid is linked here.

https://www.ioncinema.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/2026-cannes-grid-fjord.jpg

From Cannes-ratings.org (films in Palme competition with a better than 7.0 rating on a 10 point scale and a minimum of 8 reviews):

1) Fjord 7.81***

2) Bitter Christmas 7.53***

3) All of a Sudden 7.24***

3) The Beloved 7.24

Of special note is the hugely favorable critical reception to Club Kid from the Un Certain Regard section at Cannes.  It has a stellar 8.43 rating to lead all films in any section of the fest.  News broke on Tuesday that the film had been picked up for U.S. distribution by A24 after a bidding war that included: Netflix, Searchlight, Focus Features and MUBI according to this story from Variety.

The critical reception, the players vying for the film and the ultimate winning bid is enough to make me pay attention to it as a possible TFF selection.   Stay tuned.

Club Kid is a first feature for director/writer Jordan Firstman. .  The IMDb description is:

"A washed-up New York party promoter is forced to turn his life around when an unexpected visitor arrives."

The complete set of ratings from Cannes-ratins.org is linked here.

https://cannes-ratings.org/

According to Kalshi  (as of yesterday), Minotaur has the best odds to win the Palme followed by All of a Sudden and Fatherland.

SOME BUZZ FOR EISENBERG

Spooking around the interwebs yesterday I came across the news that what has been referred to as "The Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Musical Comedy now has an actual title: No One Cares.  It also seems that the film has been screened at Cannes and it seems that the screening went well.  So says World of Reel. 

WOR describes the film as follows:

"Starring Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti, with Eisenberg also appearing briefly, “No One Cares” is set in “the high-stakes world of community theater,” and follows a shy woman (Moore) who is unexpectedly cast in a local production of an original musical."

Giamatti plays the director of the community theater production.  I think it sounds great and I have had it on my TFF #53 watch list for some time mostly because Eisenberg screened A Real Pain at TFF in 2024.  That seemed to work out fairly well.  The film is being distributed by A24 which doesn't hurt.  Additionally WOR writes:

"A24 is positioning the film for a fall premiere, potentially at the Telluride Film Festival and then at the Toronto International Film Festival. An Oscar campaign will likely be mounted for all key players involved."

MIKE LEIGH HAS A TITLE

Another "Untitled Project" has an actual title and that's the next film from director Mike Leigh.  The name: Tender Loving Care.  Past that we know almost nothing about the project.  You can likely glean a bit of info from what IMDb still lists as "Untitled 2025 Mike Leigh Project"  which we assume is the same thing as the newly christened Tender Loving Care.

That IMDb info is linked here.

https://pro.imdb.com/title/tt35638092/details

The IMDb entry reveals that Bleeker Street is the U.S. distributor.

Considering Leigh's frequent stops at TFF over the years (Secrets and Lies, Happy-Go-Lucky, Another Year and others) you have to believe there's a decent chance that if it's ready, Tender Loving Care has a decent shot to play TFF #53.

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Cannes Is On / Awards Watch Oscar Predictions and TFF Clues / Bitter Christmas Teaser and Poster / Pics of Possibles from Cannes

CANNES IS ON

The 79th Cannes Film Festival is officially underway in France.  As is our habit here at MTFB, we will monitor the fest for the next two weeks looking at buzz, critical reception and ultimately prize winners to assess prospects for films to do the Cannes/Telluride Two Step.  

As I have often mentioned, the link between the two film fests is quite strong with an average of 7ish or so films playing each year, first at Cannes and then later at Telluride.

I also tend to look at Cannes-ratings.org, Ioncinema and Screen daily for collections of critical responses.  Last year nine films made the trans-Atlantic leap from France to Colorado.  Here's where they stood critically at Cannes based on the Cannes-ratings.org site's 10 point system:

Sentimental Value 8.04

It Was Just an Accident 7.75

Pillion 7.30

Nouvelle Vague 7.23

Urchin 7.15

The Secret Agent 6.99

Mastermind 6.29

A Private Life 5.90

The History of Sound 5.31

It's too early in the fest to start keeping tabs on the critical reactions but we may be able to begin to evaluate some of that in Monday's post.

AWARDS WATCH AND TFF CLUES

Erik Anderson has begun his annual updating list of predictions for Oscar '27 and I'm going through them for possible TFF titles.  among the films that he lists as Best Picture possibilities, these are the ones that look most Telluride-friendly:

Fjord

Wild Horse Nine

Fatherland

The Social Reckoning

All of a Sudden

Sense and Sensibility

Behemoth!

Being Heumann

Coward

Hope

Jack of Spades

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Saturn Return

Sweetsick

No One Cares (Jesse Eisenberg musical)

The complete set of predictions from Awards Watch are linked here.

https://awardswatch.com/2027-oscar-predictions-best-picture-and-best-director-may/

BITTER CHRISTMAS TEASER AND POSTER

Pedro Almodovar's Bitter Christmas is playing Cannes...and could be a Telluride player as well.  In conjunction with its bow at Cannes, there is a poster and a teaser. Here they be:

And the teaser from Sony Pictures Classics and YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PgPkSpuYpY&t=2s

PICS FROM POSSIBLES FROM CANNES:

***From Vanity Fair:  Paper Tiger:

***From The Hollywood Reporter: Coward:

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